NBA Playoff Thread: 2024-25 Edition
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In case people can't see the full tweet or don't want to click on the link, the Lakers-Wolves game 1 is Saturday night at 8:30, and the Houston-West 7/8 game 1 will be on Sunday.
So to @JCizzle 's point, all of the good games (3-6 and 4-5) are on Saturday, although I expect the West top 2 seeds will have slightly more interesting first round series than the East.
So to @JCizzle 's point, all of the good games (3-6 and 4-5) are on Saturday, although I expect the West top 2 seeds will have slightly more interesting first round series than the East.
Assuming the Warriors get the #7 seed, pretty sure I'd pick them over Houston. I'd probably like the Rockets over the Grizzlies, but that'd be a tight #2 vs #7 series.
But, yeah, the series that kick off on Sunday are definitely the 2nd act. The Saturday set of games look great (and I'll be traveling, damnit).
But, yeah, the series that kick off on Sunday are definitely the 2nd act. The Saturday set of games look great (and I'll be traveling, damnit).
I guess this is familiarity breeding contempt, but I'll be surprised if the Warriors are competitive against Houston. Steph and Jimmy are nursing injuries and I think Houston can run the Warriors off the floor.
Also, it's game 83 and Kerr STILL hasn't figured out how to use Kuminga.
Easter festivities may preclude me from watching a ton of Sunday hoops, but I hopefully won't be missing much.
Also, it's game 83 and Kerr STILL hasn't figured out how to use Kuminga.
Easter festivities may preclude me from watching a ton of Sunday hoops, but I hopefully won't be missing much.
I don't think Kuminga is a Kerr issue. My sense is its a Kuminga issue. The Warriors system seems pretty plug and play for the right type of profile but JK clearly isn't it. Butler has all but made him irrelevant.
Sure he has. He finally stapled him to the bench. I don't think he was wrong. He did figure it out, at least for that match-up. Beyond JK, his agents, and Warriors fans who have pumped him up endlessly, what has JK done?
I agree with the general take, that said the Warriors do lack athleticism and against the Rockets specifically I think he may get some play. Even as I thought the decision to bench him vs the Clippers made sense, I suspect he should/will get some run vs Houston.
One thing that jumped out looking at the brackets, the Lakers really have a favorable path to the conference finals. The Wolves aren't exactly a pushover in round 1, but Luka/Lebron vs playoff Randle and Gobert? Yeesh, even if Ant explodes like he did last April, this is not a good matchup for the Wolves. Then in round 2, the Lakers get one of the Rockets/Warriors/Grizzlies. Lakers/Warriors would potentially be an epic round 2, but the Lakers would be massive favorites over the other two teams.
Something feels off about how much people are underrating the Rockets. They might not make the WCF, but they have an edge, and are going to make life miserable for other teams. They're not Orlando (to take another big, young, defensive team).
Houston will fight and claw and absolutely be a tough matchup for anyone. I think the skepticism---which I 80% agree with---comes down to this: there isn't anyone you really fear in the last six minutes of a close game offensively. And that's where a huge amount of playoff games are won and lost.
Maybe Sengun will prove that statement wrong; maybe Dillon Brooks goes nuts late, maybe Green finds a heart....maybe it's FVV. But they are behind on the thing that people focus on most in playoffs (albeit, I believe, more than they should).
Maybe Sengun will prove that statement wrong; maybe Dillon Brooks goes nuts late, maybe Green finds a heart....maybe it's FVV. But they are behind on the thing that people focus on most in playoffs (albeit, I believe, more than they should).
Fun fact: The Wolves have the 4th best point differential in all of the NBA at 5.0, significantly better than the +1.2 of the Lakers.
I get that, but if they were the 6th seed, would anyone even ask this question? The west is so tightly packed this year that I'm less concerned about overall record in these matchups, particularly when just 3 games was the difference between 2nd and 6th (and Houston is just as close to 11th as they were to 1st). They are super young and don't have anyone resembling an alpha (yet). It's fortunate for them that the only team I think they can beat might be their 1st round opponent (Memphis). Bright future aside, these guys remind me of the 3 seed Kings from a couple of years ago - no experience, and cannot play both ways.
This is exactly where I come down. Their results and execution are impressive because they are essentially doing it with a lot of pieces that should get swapped out for better ones if they get roster building right. Sengun is a good player and will likely improve but if your crunch time scorers are him, Brooks and the "feels-overrated" Jalen Green you are challenged. Green, in particular, is the player to watch here. If he can get & make good looks against playoff defense, then maybe its time to shed some skepticism about Houston. But for now they are a deep water defensive team that doesn't have any obvious real escape valves.
Boy do I wish I could sell some "Lakers to win title" action at +1300. Anyone who wants that action, maybe as an emotional hedge in case the unthinkable happens, just look me up. They're basically buying dollars for 93 cents over there in Vegas.
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/44670674/thunder-celtics-favorites-win-nba-title-public-likes-lakers
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/44670674/thunder-celtics-favorites-win-nba-title-public-likes-lakers
It’s is so much more than the age/experience thing. They lose the math game to every WC playoff team and in the final six minutes of a close game scoring figures to be a problem for them…..and they’d have to do it 4 times. I know you agree with 80% of this but to me you really REALLY need to get creative in finding that 20%.
If we’re looking at odds for teams from big markets, am I crazy that the Knicks shouldn’t be -460 (what I’m see right now on FanDuel) to beat Detroit? Pistons at +360 seems like a decent value play.
Agreed, Pistons +360 feels like very good value. Knicks should be favored but I think fair odds would be somewhere like Pistons +180-250, in that range.
I would agree with that, the Knicks have had trouble matching up with them all season and Cade Cunningham is the best player in the series.
If Thibs makes the obvious move of starting Robinson and sitting Hart, and matching up Robinson with Duren as best he can all game, I think it will go easier for the Knicks but Thibs is reactive and never proactive, so it will probably take him a few games to do this. Duren dunked with KAT on him three times in the first two minutes of their game last week, you'd think that would be a wakeup call but we'll see.
If Thibs makes the obvious move of starting Robinson and sitting Hart, and matching up Robinson with Duren as best he can all game, I think it will go easier for the Knicks but Thibs is reactive and never proactive, so it will probably take him a few games to do this. Duren dunked with KAT on him three times in the first two minutes of their game last week, you'd think that would be a wakeup call but we'll see.
Indiana was who I was looking at for most of these. I just think having Tatum is super valuable because they are making the ECF. I might pivot away from the OKC and Boston tertiary options and go with primary options on potential upset teams (IND, DET, DEN, LAC)
I don’t think Houston beats GS. I think one of their biggest strengths in the regular season (good bench) is severely depressed in the postseason and they really don’t have any top options
Very fair.
I am going to end up doing 2-3 lineups but I am going to have Tatum in 2 out of 3.
Players that stood out to me as values:
- Rui Hachimura/DFS/Gabe Vincent
- Moses Moody and Podziemski
- Mikal Bridges/Mitchell Robinson/Precious Achiuwa
- Indiana players
- Detroit players not named Cade Cunningham
- Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun (if you favor DEN)
- Kawhi and Norman Powell (if you favor LAC)
OKC is a tough nut to crack because outside of their top two options, who are priced as such, I am not sure there are any sure thing performers. Daignault plays a legitimate 9 man rotation and I don’t know if I quite trust Chet/Hartenstein for that salary.
I will have to do more research, but I think I am betting on Denver and Indiana. Think NYK tops DET so I don’t want to go in on DET.
I was pretty pot committed on GSW but I need to keep reading on that too
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I think their biggest strength is their defense. If they can guard Curry and Butler, then GSW is going to have real issues scoring. One lineup to watch: When HOU plays Adams and Sengun together, although very limited minutes, they are something like +30 and according a podcast I listened to they have an OReb% of something ridiculous like 51%. GSW has size and rebounding challenges. Will be interesting to see if GSW can attack these lineups so that HOU can't play those two together.
BTW, Dame is cleared for basketball activities and will play in Round 1: https://www.nbcsports.com/nba/news/damian-lillard-is-cleared-for-full-basketball-activity-expected-to-rejoin-bucks-in-first-round-series
I'm am really psyched for these first-round matchups!
With Dame back, Mil-Indy is a lot of fun. I'll take Indy but it's a toss-up. My guess is ultimately they have too much pace and too many athletes for the Bucks, who (though dangerous) feel creaky and stilted to me. One of several good 'constrast in styles' series. Feels like it might be last rodeo for this Milwaukee core. While Dame is back, what he's able to do---minutes wise and shooting wise---remains somewhat unknown.
TWolves-Lakers is a lot of fun, and I have the "die Lakers die" rooting interest. That one to me has a very wide range of outcomes---Lakers in 5 wouldn't shock me, TWolves in 6 wouldn't shock me. I'd pick Lakers if I had to; hard to fully trust TWolves late, given Gobert's significant matchup issues in this series, Randle's playoff history, and a sense that while Ant is great, he is not quite there yet as a prime-time decision maker. TWolves have more overall talent and versatility---but don't know that they can win vs Lakers late in games. I feel like at least one game is going to be a Minnesota win where the Lakers supporting cast shoots 9-39 on threes and generates a post-game rant from Lebron and/or Luka.
Pistons-Knicks is going to be fun as well. I don't think Pistons are quite ready for a good, and veteran, Knicks team....but this should be physical and Pistons have a shot - 9th in net rating second half/ 3-1 vs Knicks this year. I'm a Cade fan, and on the radar for me is he's simply the best player in series with somethign like a 35/12 assist a game average for a national coming-out and pulls Detroit through. This might be the series with the most on the line for a single team in some ways (at least, assuming no collapse from Celtics/OKC/Cle): if Knicks lose this series it's a total disaster for them. I don't expect it to play out that way though.
Houston - GS is awesome. I'm a GS believer for this one - Houston is going to struggle late in games, imo. But it will be a battle (I'll be surprised if there isn't at least one Draymond-Houston physical skirmish). Another great 'contrast in styles' series. Also: Kuminga's role and contribution is a pretty big unknown in this series and overall for GS. I've never been as high on the upside as some, but he's a capability they don't otherwise have and Kerr probably needs to leverage that more than he seems to want to. I don't expect it to happen, but Jalen Green is another guy who could change his national profile with a big series (and a couple games of making big shots late).
Clippers-Nuggets may be my favorite. like Twolves-Lakers, I can imagine a lot here - Nuggets in 5 to Clippers in 6, I'd say. Clippers have been great all year, and with Kawhi back there's a credible story they can win two rounds. And....Harden playoffs? Kawhi health? Denver bench? Murray health? So many things can move in different directions, with a top-3 playoff coach on one side and a top-1 player on the other. On balance, Nuggets and Joker feel like they will get it done but this one could go 7 easily in my mind. Like with Milwaukee, you get sense this could be last rodeo for Denver core (kind of obvious given their coach/front office changes so late) and curious to see if they have a run in them or not.
With Dame back, Mil-Indy is a lot of fun. I'll take Indy but it's a toss-up. My guess is ultimately they have too much pace and too many athletes for the Bucks, who (though dangerous) feel creaky and stilted to me. One of several good 'constrast in styles' series. Feels like it might be last rodeo for this Milwaukee core. While Dame is back, what he's able to do---minutes wise and shooting wise---remains somewhat unknown.
TWolves-Lakers is a lot of fun, and I have the "die Lakers die" rooting interest. That one to me has a very wide range of outcomes---Lakers in 5 wouldn't shock me, TWolves in 6 wouldn't shock me. I'd pick Lakers if I had to; hard to fully trust TWolves late, given Gobert's significant matchup issues in this series, Randle's playoff history, and a sense that while Ant is great, he is not quite there yet as a prime-time decision maker. TWolves have more overall talent and versatility---but don't know that they can win vs Lakers late in games. I feel like at least one game is going to be a Minnesota win where the Lakers supporting cast shoots 9-39 on threes and generates a post-game rant from Lebron and/or Luka.
Pistons-Knicks is going to be fun as well. I don't think Pistons are quite ready for a good, and veteran, Knicks team....but this should be physical and Pistons have a shot - 9th in net rating second half/ 3-1 vs Knicks this year. I'm a Cade fan, and on the radar for me is he's simply the best player in series with somethign like a 35/12 assist a game average for a national coming-out and pulls Detroit through. This might be the series with the most on the line for a single team in some ways (at least, assuming no collapse from Celtics/OKC/Cle): if Knicks lose this series it's a total disaster for them. I don't expect it to play out that way though.
Houston - GS is awesome. I'm a GS believer for this one - Houston is going to struggle late in games, imo. But it will be a battle (I'll be surprised if there isn't at least one Draymond-Houston physical skirmish). Another great 'contrast in styles' series. Also: Kuminga's role and contribution is a pretty big unknown in this series and overall for GS. I've never been as high on the upside as some, but he's a capability they don't otherwise have and Kerr probably needs to leverage that more than he seems to want to. I don't expect it to happen, but Jalen Green is another guy who could change his national profile with a big series (and a couple games of making big shots late).
Clippers-Nuggets may be my favorite. like Twolves-Lakers, I can imagine a lot here - Nuggets in 5 to Clippers in 6, I'd say. Clippers have been great all year, and with Kawhi back there's a credible story they can win two rounds. And....Harden playoffs? Kawhi health? Denver bench? Murray health? So many things can move in different directions, with a top-3 playoff coach on one side and a top-1 player on the other. On balance, Nuggets and Joker feel like they will get it done but this one could go 7 easily in my mind. Like with Milwaukee, you get sense this could be last rodeo for Denver core (kind of obvious given their coach/front office changes so late) and curious to see if they have a run in them or not.
I'm kind of hoping for some WC upsets or long series. It's more emotional than smart.
OKC is going to be a thorn in the JAYs side for the next half decade. We need them to get beaten up, especially twiggy SGA.
So you ideally want to get guys on teams that go far but don't sweep but advance after 6 or 7 game series?
Wouldn't the price be weighted by the triple slash (regular season stats) AND expected playoff duration? If so that would inform my strategy, IF NOT I would pull their season records (or playoff odds) and triple slashes into excel and do some basic modeling. If it is reflected in the price, then I would be looking for people who might step up on strong teams or strong players who we don't anticipate going deep (but may).
Perhaps D.Lillard might be interesting. Chances are (based on regular season) they don't project to go deep, but if they do there is no way he doesn't pile numbers.
100%. It’s weighted by both triple slash and the teams odds to win. That’s why the Celtics and Thunders players are more expensive.
I’ve done this for 3 years now. I’ve been in the top 12 every year but never top 4
To win need to:
-Identify the teams you think are going to win.
-Identify a team that you think will win as an underdog
-Hope your “punt plays” contribute something.
Something I am thinking this year is trying not to overspend on lower options on the favorites.
I keep coming back to identifying a team that will win as an underdog (e.g, Warriors), and undervalued guys that might pop. I guess the other lens might be long series (at least in the first round), someone that puts up a 30 triple slash over 7 is worth more than a 50 over 4. I never do any of this, it drives me too crazy to think about it.
Let us know who you end up picking.
+1. I'm sure at least 2 of these will be 5 game stinkers but at the jump, this looks like a really interesting 1st round outside of the top 3 matchups (which feels right given how much better OKC/CLE/BOS were than the rest of the league).
Just for people's information, here are the top 20 in points, rebounds, and assists last year. The lists are heavily dominated by the teams in the Final 4 and, of course, Jokic.
What can Dame realistically give MIL? He hasn’t played in a month, and he’s not exactly coming off a turned ankle here. I’m team Pacers in that series, all due respect to Giannis.
I'm still struggling with how he's coming back this soon from a condition that seems to typically sideline athletes for 6 months or more, but if he's actually gonna play...he might still be in decent shape (can he use a treadmill when he's on blood thinners?) and no reason his shoot should be too rusty (seems like individual workouts should've continued as long as there's no contact). He's gonna miss about 5 weeks and rust should be a problem, but I think this is better than coming back from some physical injury or ailment.
Don’t know this affects things but Windhorst said today that Dame was on blood thinners before the DVT was diagnosed, which is why he can come back so quickly.
Trae has two years left (one is a PO) at about 44m and 48m per, respectively, with an extension looming. Seems like this is the offseason for ATL to deal him and retrench around Risacher and Jalen Johnson.
Whenever we play this game, it's always hard to find a place for Trae. San Antonio would have made sense, but now they're out of the game.
I guess Dallas could try to win-now in Kyrie's rehab year!
Kyle Andersen fits in with the Playoff Heat.
Weird, awkward and effective.
I could see them taking the CAVs to 6 games
Weird, awkward and effective.
I could see them taking the CAVs to 6 games
Yeaaaah….I’ve spent the last 15 minutes unsuccessfully trying to find a trade partner. Houston? But you imagine they’re go big game hunting (Giannis, KD) rather than commit to Trae. Maybe a clown org like the Kings? Even with them it’s hard to find a sensible trade.
True, though going from Haliburton and Fox to Trae would be quintessentially Kings
Miami is the one team aside from the Celtics that the Cavs should be petrified of playing in a 7-game series. They have defenders to match up with their best offensive players, will have the playoff coaching advantage and a bunch of guys who historically perform well in the playoffs.
To your point, my Cavs fan buddy is not happy with the result - he really wanted Atlanta because he knows the Heat under Spo always present PITA potential. And Bam as the defensive centerpiece is gonna be interesting because unleashing Mobley offensively is a must for the Cavs to go all the way.
Yeah you're right, Miami can throw bodies at them. Off-night will pester Dono. Bam on Mobley. If Wiggins decides to give defensive effort. PLUS Spo will show the CAVs different zones and on-ball pressure schemes that will take them out of what they want to do. Heat lost the season series 1-2 but the last game in Cleveland was no picnic.
Sidenote for down the road: The Pacers were 3-1 vs Cleveland in the regular season. BUT 2 of those losses were at the end of the season with limited starters from both sides. CAVs went 4-0 versus the Bucks.
Giving one of your precious MAX contracts to Trae Young just guarantees NBA purgatory.
He's a walking bucket but gives up close to what he gets you.
Miami's offense has struggled for years now
Could the HEAT hide Trae's flaws? Trae + Herro would be brutal
If ATL just want pick(s) + salary (Rozier/Duncan) maybe Miami wants to add a star/sell tickets?
Trae Young, 26, with a career average of 25/10 has to be attractive to some team that needs pointZ.
You'd think so, but it's hard to actually name what "some team" is.
The league's GMs are pretty sophisticated now; there are fewer easy marks. Even Nico at least wanted an impact player in AD, not empty pointz calories.
I agree Miami will take 1-2 games and frustrate the Cavs. They're too good to lose but it will be a grind.