NBA Play In Tourney

[ifmanis5]

TV coverage starting to come into shape. ESPN has the West, TNT has the East. No local coverage, sorry Mike and Scal.
View: https://twitter.com/paulsen_smw/status/1393365151034843136

ESPN will air the full Western Conference play-in tournament, while TNT has the Eastern Conference. (ESPN has the West Finals and TNT the East Finals this year).
All of the play-in games are exclusive national telecasts with no local RSN coverage.

Schedule:
View: https://twitter.com/NBAPR/status/1393361624984137733

 

[128]

Who has the tiebreaker between Indiana and Charlotte? One of them is going to be the No. 8 seed.

EDIT: Looks like the Hornets have the tiebreaker. Hayward has yet to return for Charlotte, but he might be available Tuesday nite.

 

[chilidawg]

Who has the tiebreaker between Indiana and Charlotte? One of them is going to be the No. 8 seed.

EDIT: Looks like the Hornets have the tiebreaker. Hayward has yet to return for Charlotte, but he might be available Tuesday nite.

Tweet from Keith Smith says we play the winner of tomorrow's Wiz/Hornets game. Great that the schedule lined up that way for those teams.

 

[radsoxfan]

So it looks like our options are....

1. Win at home vs Washington >>> Start Round 1 on the road vs. the Nets

2. Lose at home vs Washignton, win at home vs winner of Hornets/Pacers >>> Start Round 1 on the road vs. the Sixers

3. Lose at home vs Washington, lose at home vs winner Hornets/pacers >>> Lottery time


What is everyone rooting for?

 

[128]

So it looks like our options are....

1. Win at home vs Washington >>> Start Round 1 on the road vs. the Nets

2. Lose at home vs Washignton, win at home vs winner of Hornets/Pacers >>> Start Round 1 on the road vs. the Sixers

3. Lose at home vs Washington, lose at home vs winner Hornets/pacers >>> Lottery time


What is everyone rooting for?

2 or, if I'm being honest, 3.

 

[BigSoxFan]

2 or, if I'm being honest, 3.

Yeah, without Jaylen, I don’t really care. Hard to root against the guys in green but #3 wouldn’t make me mad at all.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Early lines:

Wizards at Celtics (Celtics -1)
Hornets at Pacers (Pacers -2)

 

[Light-Tower-Power]

2 or, if I'm being honest, 3.

Really not interested in getting broomed by Kyrie and company.

 

[128]

Really not interested in getting broomed by Kyrie and company.

I could see the C's, if they fall to the No. 8 seed, stealing one game from the Sixers, but that's it.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Developmentally, it would be nice the for the team to just come out and compete regardless of whom they have to face. More playoff run can only benefit whomever is here going forward.

 

[Cellar-Door]

As a note... BKN hasn't actually clinched the 2 seed, could still be MIL depending on tonight's games

Edit- my preference is to win, one because I like rooting for my team to win, and two, I would like them to have more meaningful games against high level opponents to assess how Fournier works here, get the young guys some playoff minutes, etc

 

[chilidawg]

As a note... BKN hasn't actually clinched the 2 seed, could still be MIL depending on tonight's games

Edit- my preference is to win, one because I like rooting for my team to win, and two, I would like them to have more meaningful games against high level opponents to assess how Fournier works here, get the young guys some playoff minutes, etc

Bucks would be an interesting and more competitive series imo, but it would seem unlikely Brooklyn loses to Cleveland at home.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

As a note... BKN hasn't actually clinched the 2 seed, could still be MIL depending on tonight's games

Edit- my preference is to win, one because I like rooting for my team to win, and two, I would like them to have more meaningful games against high level opponents to assess how Fournier works here, get the young guys some playoff minutes, etc

This seems to be a more fruitful path than hoping for a long shot lotto ball miracle.

 

[McBride11]

My heart tells me 1 or 2 - root for my team in the playoffs.

My head says #3. This time isn't going to the promised land and likely not leaving rd1 vs BKN / MIL / PHL. #3 gets them in the lottery and chance at a top talent to help the young Js. Thinking long term

 

[Light-Tower-Power]

Definitely rooting strongly for playoff intensity, 5000 loud and rowdy fans at the Garden, and a W on Tuesday. Rooting for ping pong balls isn't as fun.

 

[djbayko]

of course I’ll be rooting for the team, but I really think the best option for them is to miss the playoffs. Not just because of the lottery but because I don’t think it would be terrible for them to go home and chew on this season and what they need to do to get back to the conference finals next year.

I’m also not excited to watch them get trounced by the Nets or the Sixers.

Now watch them go out and inexplicably sweep one of those teams.

 

[donutogre]

Was just getting caught up on how this tournament will work and seeing who is involved, etc… and can I just say how much I hope the Lakers get bumped in this tournament? Would be just delightful.

 

[bankshot1]

I think its too late to hope for a miracle from the 2021 Celts, but I'm rooting for them.

Option 1. If the Celts meet the Nets it would close the circle to the seeming axis shifting KG-Pierce trade/theft that has been offset with a shit ton of bad karma. The shift in East Coast schadenfreude from Boston to Brookyn with the Nets ass kicking the Celts, would be seismic, and a wildly flowing volcano of hot take lava

 

[lexrageorge]

There is no discernable difference between options 1 and 2.

I feel this is a lost season anyway, especially with Jaylen Brown missing the playoffs, so I have no issue if the Celtics end up in the lottery. Still, they could dig in and beat any of the 3 teams in the play-in, so I'd be surprised if they ended up missing the playoffs.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Screw it! Make a run C’s!!

I don’t know how much time Pritchard, Nesmith or Langford will see but......

1. Win your way into the playoffs
2. Win a game or two while making life uncomfortable for the Nets
3. Have one of the above mentioned trio play with poise and make a baby leap showing that the added intensity ups their game leading into the most important summer of their careers.

 

[radsoxfan]

To answer my own question, the only time I don’t root for the Celtics to win any given game is if there is REALLY good reason for them to lose.

I don’t see the difference in #1 or #2 as a particularly good reason to hope for one of those over the other.

And I don’t see the far end of the lottery as some huge prize, so #3 doesn’t really excite me enough either.

I’ll be rooting for wins from here on out... which means lottery here we come.

 

[j-man]

the east will be brookland-philly the west who knows my guess would be LAC-UTAH or LAL - UTAH

 

[lovegtm]

I'm fully emotionally hedged. A couple draft spots higher is material, but young guys getting playoff experience is also useful and fun.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I think people are really overrating the value of picking 13th vs. 16th.

 

[the moops]

Was just getting caught up on how this tournament will work and seeing who is involved, etc… and can I just say how much I hope the Lakers get bumped in this tournament? Would be just delightful.

Not me. Without the Celtics having title chances I want to see the best basketball possible. That means LeBron and AD playing against the clippers or the nuggets or the jazz, etc. and not getting bounced by Memphis or San Antonio

 

[PedroKsBambino]

I'm fully emotionally hedged. A couple draft spots higher is material, but young guys getting playoff experience is also useful and fun.

That's where I am.

Keep in mind, if the team is as lethargic in playoff series as it has been much of last two weeks there won't be any useful learning or experience occurring. If you could assure me they will be dialed-in and playing together I'd much prefer that to a small shot at anything useful happening in lottery, but that seems like a somewhat heroic assumption right now

 

[Auger34]

I’m in boat 2 or 3. I really don’t want to watch KD, Harden and (especially) Kyrie destroying the Celtics

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Don't really care what the outcome is given there not much difference one way or another - which, in some ways, a strangely empowering place to be.

However, the possibility of a Nets implosion (admittedly low, but Kyrie did say that "basketball is just not the most important thing to me right now") makes curious for a BOS/BRK series.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

I think people are really overrating the value of picking 13th vs. 16th.

I was going to argue this, then I looked at the players

13, last 10 years



16, last 10 years

 

[lexrageorge]

I think people are really overrating the value of picking 13th vs. 16th.

I think the people voting for option #3 are hoping for that 4% or whatever chance there is to move into the upper echelon of the draft.

And Tyler Herro says hello.

 

[ifmanis5]

The play in games are now official:

Eastern Conference (Tuesday)

• No. 10 Charlotte Hornets at No. 9 Indiana Pacers (6:30 p.m. ET, TNT)
• No. 8 Washington Wizards at No. 7 Boston Celtics (9 p.m. ET, TNT)

Western Conference (Wednesday)

• No. 10 San Antonio Spurs at No. 9 Memphis Grizzlies (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
• No. 8 Golden State Warriors at No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers (10 p.m. ET, ESPN)

 

[Jimbodandy]

Screw it! Make a run C’s!!

I don’t know how much time Pritchard, Nesmith or Langford will see but......

1. Win your way into the playoffs
2. Win a game or two while making life uncomfortable for the Nets
3. Have one of the above mentioned trio play with poise and make a baby leap showing that the added intensity ups their game leading into the most important summer of their careers.

100% this. Never practice to lose.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Not me. Without the Celtics having title chances I want to see the best basketball possible. That means LeBron and AD playing against the clippers or the nuggets or the jazz, etc. and not getting bounced by Memphis or San Antonio

Bite your tongue.

 

[Light-Tower-Power]

9 pm? Gross.

 

[BaseballJones]

I'm hoping that Tatum takes the next level leap into superduperstardom, elevating his team, in the absence of his awesome sidekick, to a stunning playoff run. I'm hoping that Kemba lights it up. I'm hoping that Smart dogs whomever he's guarding and harasses him so much that the opponent is a pathetic drooling mess. I'm hoping the kids show up and don't even feel the playoff pressure. I'm hoping that Fournier elevates his game.

Teams with less talent than these Celtics have done well in the playoffs before. I want to see Boston shock a lot of people - including most everyone here. That's what I want to see. That's what I'm hoping for.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I was going to argue this, then I looked at the players

13, last 10 years

View attachment 41139

16, last 10 years

View attachment 41140

So the top 3 all went 13, then 3 of the next 4 went 16. Of course picking 16 is a little silly since all the guys at 17 or later are available and you're really judging the pick based on GMs. Should probably do it as 13-15 and 16+.

I guess the argument would be that in a few years there was a guy with elite potential left at 13, but generally the 13-20 range is a crapshoot.

Looking at 2018 and further:
2018- best player probably went 14, but 17 and 27 are contenders
2017-13 and 14 are stars, 19 and 22 are really good
2016- 27 is the best, followed by 29, 20, 19
2015- 13 is best, followed by 16 and 20
2014- 13 is probably best? (though late breakout, before this year he definitely wasn't) cases to be made for 25 and 16, 30 a bit behind
2013- 15 is a superstar, 27 a star
2012- probably 20, followed by 15 and 18.

I think the people voting for option #3 are hoping for that 4% or whatever chance there is to move into the upper echelon of the draft.

And Tyler Herro says hello.

It's 1%
Tyler Herro is.... not that good? Several better players went after him (sadly Romeo does not appear to be one of them).

 

[lexrageorge]

So the top 3 all went 13, then 3 of the next 4 went 16. Of course picking 16 is a little silly since all the guys at 17 or later are available and you're really judging the pick based on GMs. Should probably do it as 13-15 and 16+.

I guess the argument would be that in a few years there was a guy with elite potential left at 13, but generally the 13-20 range is a crapshoot.

Looking at 2018 and further:
2018- best player probably went 14, but 17 and 27 are contenders
2017-13 and 14 are stars, 19 and 22 are really good
2016- 27 is the best, followed by 29, 20, 19
2015- 13 is best, followed by 16 and 20
2014- 13 is probably best? (though late breakout, before this year he definitely wasn't) cases to be made for 25 and 16, 30 a bit behind
2013- 15 is a superstar, 27 a star
2012- probably 20, followed by 15 and 18.


It's 1%
Tyler Herro is.... not that good? Several better players went after him (sadly Romeo does not appear to be one of them).

4% for Top 4 pick; 1% for #1 pick.

 

[Strike4]

Screw it! Make a run C’s!!

I don’t know how much time Pritchard, Nesmith or Langford will see but......

1. Win your way into the playoffs
2. Win a game or two while making life uncomfortable for the Nets
3. Have one of the above mentioned trio play with poise and make a baby leap showing that the added intensity ups their game leading into the most important summer of their careers.

AND no matter who they are losing to and in which fashion (out in play-in round, trounced by Nets, play over their head etc.) there will be plenty of reflection. It could even be the more positive "hey we'd be pretty awesome if we just had that intensity for more than 10 games").

 

[Sam Ray Not]

It’s interesting how different the tone in Dub Nation is right now vis-à-vis play-in / likely first round elimination v. a 2-3 spot jump in the first round (plus a 2-4% chance at lotto). The Warriors are nominally in the same boat as the Cs; just two notches above. But because they closed their regular season strong — and maybe secondarily cos they lost their #2 franchise player before the season as opposed to just now? — I don’t think any Ws fan is thinking anything right now but “win and get in.”

Not making any value judgment — I actually think it might be advantageous for the Ws to take the #14 pick and a tiny shot at Cade, and go all in for next season with a healthy Klay. Just noting the power of recency bias. Had we stumbled into the play-in round at .500 or worse, I’m sure I’d be singing the same tune as most of you guys.

 

[Cellar-Door]

It’s interesting how different the tone in Dub Nation is right now vis-à-vis play-in / likely first round elimination v. a 2-3 spot jump in the first round (plus a 2-4% chance at lotto). The Warriors are nominally in the same boat as the Cs; just two notches above. But because they closed their regular season strong — and maybe secondarily cos they lost their #2 franchise player before the season as opposed to just now? — I don’t think any Ws fan is thinking anything right now but “win and get in.”

Not making any value judgment — I actually think it might be advantageous for the Ws to take the #14 pick and a tiny shot at Cade, and go all in for next season with a healthy Klay. Just noting the power of recency bias. Had we stumbled into the play-in round at .500 or worse, I’m sure I’d be singing the same tune as most of you guys.

I think there are a couple things there...
1. They have a top 5 player in the league, so who knows.
2. Their core is aging out, they only have a few years left, easier to envision losing a year when your stars are 23 and 24 than 33.
3. They tanked last year, got the #2 pick and seem unhappy with him already.

 

[Light-Tower-Power]

I'm hoping that Tatum takes the next level leap into superduperstardom, elevating his team, in the absence of his awesome sidekick, to a stunning playoff run. I'm hoping that Kemba lights it up. I'm hoping that Smart dogs whomever he's guarding and harasses him so much that the opponent is a pathetic drooling mess. I'm hoping the kids show up and don't even feel the playoff pressure. I'm hoping that Fournier elevates his game.

Teams with less talent than these Celtics have done well in the playoffs before. I want to see Boston shock a lot of people - including most everyone here. That's what I want to see. That's what I'm hoping for.

This should be the opening post to the play-in gamethread. It's time for playoff basketball, and I can't root for anything but exactly this.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

One scenario I consider roughly as likely as a top-4 pick, but which would be awesome for the future of the team, is that like the 2018 Celtics they rally in spite of injuries to win a series or seriously push NJ and look like they can really play together. Tatum is an alpha who wins a game or two in last 4 minutes, TL plays 20-25 min a game and has impact, Kemba is a consistent threat, Nesmith shows he can play crunch-time playoff minutes without embarassing himself, Fournier shows he can be credible enough defensively and impact offensively playing off Kemba and Tatum. Were that to happen it would be a very different feel for the offseason.

 

[BigSoxFan]

One scenario I consider roughly as likely as a top-4 pick, but which would be awesome for the future of the team, is that like the 2018 Celtics they rally in spite of injuries to win a series or seriously push NJ and look like they can really play together. Tatum is an alpha who wins a game or two in last 4 minutes, TL plays 20-25 min a game and has impact, Kemba is a consistent threat, Nesmith shows he can play crunch-time playoff minutes without embarassing himself, Fournier shows he can be credible enough defensively and impact offensively playing off Kemba and Tatum. Were that to happen it would be a very different feel for the offseason.

I'm under no illusion that they're going to get their act together, especially with Jaylen out, but I'm hoping we get some 2009 Celtics/Magic energy from this team and give Brooklyn/Philly at least a tough series. More than likely, I expect them to hang around in games for a little bit before unraveling in almost every game.

 

[Light-Tower-Power]

I'm under no illusion that they're going to get their act together, especially with Jaylen out, but I'm hoping we get some 2009 Celtics/Magic energy from this team and give Brooklyn/Philly at least a tough series. More than likely, I expect them to hang around in games for a little bit before unraveling in almost every game.

I think tomorrow is a fun game that they eek out, and then it's brooms against BKN. Roasted at Barclays for two games, come out fighting in G3 before talent wins out, and then roasted in G4. The thought of Tatum going supernova and stealing a couple is more fun, though, and one in which I will actively be engaging in the next few days.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

So the top 3 all went 13, then 3 of the next 4 went 16. Of course picking 16 is a little silly since all the guys at 17 or later are available and you're really judging the pick based on GMs. Should probably do it as 13-15 and 16+.

I guess the argument would be that in a few years there was a guy with elite potential left at 13, but generally the 13-20 range is a crapshoot.

Looking at 2018 and further:
2018- best player probably went 14, but 17 and 27 are contenders
2017-13 and 14 are stars, 19 and 22 are really good
2016- 27 is the best, followed by 29, 20, 19
2015- 13 is best, followed by 16 and 20
2014- 13 is probably best? (though late breakout, before this year he definitely wasn't) cases to be made for 25 and 16, 30 a bit behind
2013- 15 is a superstar, 27 a star
2012- probably 20, followed by 15 and 18.


It's 1%
Tyler Herro is.... not that good? Several better players went after him (sadly Romeo does not appear to be one of them).

Here's someone's thesis from 2020 determining the relative value of NBA draft picks: https://repository.arizona.edu/bitstream/handle/10150/651330/azu_etd_hr_2020_0130_sip1_m.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y. I didn't read through it but the first chart on PER vs draft position matches what I've seen before.

From where I'm sitting, the draft is such a small sample size and crap shoot, it typically doesn't matter whether people draft 13 or 16. And one hit at a later position can really skew up any attempt to analyze.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

I think there are a couple things there...
1. They have a top 5 player in the league, so who knows.
2. Their core is aging out, they only have a few years left, easier to envision losing a year when your stars are 23 and 24 than 33.
3. They tanked last year, got the #2 pick and seem unhappy with him already.

All good points. And I’d add the Minnesota pick, which now has a 72.4% of conveying with the Wolves’ late mini-surge (likely #7-8, 10% chance at #4). I think they’re still really high on Wiseman’s future — I am at least — but yeah, adding not one but two new young’uns to the mix may strain the developmental bandwidth of a team that is in ultimate win-now mode starting next season, and may only have a 2-3 year window to seriously compete. Which underlines your point #2.

Of course Wiseman and the two picks (likely #7 and #17 if they make the playoffs) can also be seen as trade assets for a big win-now move; so even in those terms there’s marginal value in bumping their own pick up a few notches. But I don’t think that value comes close to the opportunity to see Steph in one of the last few seasons of his late prime trying to shock the world in the playoffs. Ws will likely get ground down due to their lack of size and depth, but they could definitely put a scare in some teams, similar to the sixth-seeded ‘13 squad with baby Steph/Klay/Dray that knocked off #3 Denver and gave the peak Spurs a fright before exiting.

Another thought ... seems weird to say, but I don’t think the teams at the top of the West are quite as bulletproof as the teams atop the East? If I were staring at full-strength Brooklyn or Philly as the reward for the play-in, I might be less gung-ho about it. Utah and Phoenix both are great teams who will obviously be hugely favored v the Ws, but I think both can be taken down. Ws would have the best player in either matchup, which is always a good starting point in a playoff series.

But let’s get past the play-in first and see what happens...

 

[BigSoxFan]

I think tomorrow is a fun game that they eek out, and then it's brooms against BKN. Roasted at Barclays for two games, come out fighting in G3 before talent wins out, and then roasted in G4. The thought of Tatum going supernova and stealing a couple is more fun, though, and one in which I will actively be engaging in the next few days.

Yeah, that’s pretty much how I see it unfolding. Maybe, maybe we eek out a win in Boston and go down 4-1. If Jaylen were still around, I’d probably be enabling my delusion a lot more.

 

[radsoxfan]

With Jaylen out , options 1 and 2 definitely lose some luster. Nice for some young guys to get experience, but it’s highly unlikely we have the horses to get to a game 6 against either team.

Combining the 4% high pick chance and the small benefit of 13 over 16, I can see the logic in hoping for number 3.

As I said above, I’ll still be rooting for wins since I don’t find option #3 likely to be some huge windfall. If they do end up in the lotto though, I certainly won’t be too crushed.

 

[the moops]

Tyler Herro is.... not that good? Several better players went after him (sadly Romeo does not appear to be one of them).

Several? I don't think there is one that I would take over him.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

One scenario I consider roughly as likely as a top-4 pick, but which would be awesome for the future of the team, is that like the 2018 Celtics they rally in spite of injuries to win a series or seriously push NJ and look like they can really play together. Tatum is an alpha who wins a game or two in last 4 minutes, TL plays 20-25 min a game and has impact, Kemba is a consistent threat, Nesmith shows he can play crunch-time playoff minutes without embarassing himself, Fournier shows he can be credible enough defensively and impact offensively playing off Kemba and Tatum. Were that to happen it would be a very different feel for the offseason.

I'll amend my earlier comments and say that I hope they perform well enough that NG is willing to sign with the Cs at a market (or market-ish) rate rather than just taking the highest bid. From Scal's various comments on the broadcasts, that seems unlikely but one can hope.