NBA offseason thread

HomeRunBaker

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BigSoxFan said:
If you put Top 10 protection on it, then I'd do it. Bo dice without it. Gallinari just isn't that good.
I would never give up a 1st rounder that could land in the lottery for an expiring contract who as you say, isn't that good. Gallo is poor defensively at both forward spots, isn't a creator offensively, has recurring knee problems that prevented him from playing back-to-back games last year, and is a 3-point shooter who doesn't shoot 3-pointers especially well with it being his meal ticket. This is a player whose reputation far exceeds his actual ability.
 

bowiac

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HomeRunBaker said:
I would never give up a 1st rounder that could land in the lottery for an expiring contract who as you say, isn't that good. Gallo is poor defensively at both forward spots, isn't a creator offensively, has recurring knee problems that prevented him from playing back-to-back games last year, and is a 3-point shooter who doesn't shoot 3-pointers especially well with it being his meal ticket. This is a player whose reputation far exceeds his actual ability.
What's wrong with him defensively? I'm mostly going off reputation and RPM, both of which largely agree that he's a solid defender. I've got no particularly strong thoughts on him, so I'm curious what the concern is?
 

nighthob

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jscola85 said:
They could have maneuvered to avoid the repeater with Harden, especially with the cap rising.  The problem mainly was that they didn't know the cap was going to explode like it will - most owners thought the new TV revenue would get phased in more gradually.
With Durant, Westbrook, and Ibaka under contract there was zero way for them to avoid the repeater tax with Harden. He has been with Houston for three years now, they would be facing a fourth year over the cap in 2016 before getting any relief.
 

radsoxfan

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Very hard to get excited about 1 year of Gallinari.  He'd be an upgrade and better fit over Bradley next season, but hard to imagine he is the missing piece to anything great.  If the price is some combination of Young, a lotto protected first, and Bradley (who I also don't particularly care for), then I guess whatever.  But I don't think Danny should be using any legit assets to get him. 
 
I'd also be curious how his knee looks.  Gallo didn't have your standard ACL reconstruction.  He had some semi-experimental non operative attempted repair for a partial tear, which didn't work.  He ended up having to have a regular reconstruction, but he played (well practiced on it at least, don't think he ever made it back in a regular season game) for a little while on an unstable ACL with a high grade tear that didn't heal right... decent chance he has some cartilage damage. 
 

HomeRunBaker

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bowiac said:
What's wrong with him defensively? I'm mostly going off reputation and RPM, both of which largely agree that he's a solid defender. I've got no particularly strong thoughts on him, so I'm curious what the concern is?
Gallinari lost a lot of lateral quickness last season the times I saw him. I'm not sure he can defend the 3 full-time and certainly not against teams whose 1st option is a 3. I like him better at the 4 but then you really need a strong rebounding and physical 5 which we don't have. His reputation is as a lights out 3-point shooter however he's a career 36% guy which is nice for a stretch 4 that brings other strengths. He's a limited player on an expiring deal who apparently has a badly messed up knee......what's not to love? /snarky
 

radsoxfan

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To clarify, I have no idea if his knee is messed up any more than your average post ACL knee. It could be pretty much the same as most of the other guys who had a traditional post op course.  He just rehabbed and played on an unstable knee for awhile post injury and before the eventual total reconstruction, so I'd be more interested in his current MRI than most. 
 
The optimism in this article after his 1st surgery is kind of funny in retrospect. 
 
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nba/nuggets/2013/06/15/danilo-gallinari-return-acl-injury-surgery/2425875/
 
Danilo was not very happy with how things turned out...
 
http://blogs.denverpost.com/nuggets/2014/09/06/danilo-gallinari-regrets-going-vails-steadman-clinic-first-knee-procedure/11465/
 

HomeRunBaker

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radsoxfan said:
To clarify, I have no idea if his knee is messed up any more than your average post ACL knee. It could be pretty much the same as most of the other guys who had a traditional post op course.  He just rehabbed and played on an unstable knee for awhile post injury, so I'd be more interested in his current MRI than most. 
 
The optimism in this article after his 1st surgery is kind of funny in retrospect. 
 
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nba/nuggets/2013/06/15/danilo-gallinari-return-acl-injury-surgery/2425875/
 
Danillo was not very happy with how things turned out...
 
http://blogs.denverpost.com/nuggets/2014/09/06/danilo-gallinari-regrets-going-vails-steadman-clinic-first-knee-procedure/11465/
Yeah I remember hearing he was having trouble recovering but didn't realize this was different than your run of the mill ACL repair. The real red flag was a 26-year old being held out of B2B games but even if he does recover......he simply isn't that good of a player. He's ok as a 4th option or top reserve but that certainly isn't a special or impact player.
 

Auger34

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nighthob said:
With Durant, Westbrook, and Ibaka under contract there was zero way for them to avoid the repeater tax with Harden. He has been with Houston for three years now, they would be facing a fourth year over the cap in 2016 before getting any relief.
If they amnestied Perk I believe they would've avoided the luxury tax the first year and with the cap rising would have been able to avoid the repeater tax.
Plus it's hard to side with an owner being cheap/complaining about being in a small market when he basically hijacked a franchise and chose to move it into said small market. Also, when you have a chance to have 4 top 30 players in their prime you just suck it up and do it. As a basketball fan, it's really too bad that that team couldn't last. Would've been a ton of fun to watch play
 

nighthob

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There is no way to carry three max deals and one 80% max deal without blowing past the luxury tax line (I mean you're talking about $60 million for those four deals alone) except jettisoning every other player on the roister and replacing them with NBA vet min guys. A move which would pretty much guarantee that Durant walk when the time came.
 

swingin val

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Ibaka was not a top 30 player for the Thunder in the 2011-2012 season. And not sure anyone really expected him to make such a leap. But yes, when you have the chance to keep that core together, not sure how you don't do everything possible to keep it together.
 

Cesar Crespo

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A lot of people at the time thought Ibaka was better than Harden and would be a super star, even on this forum.
 

Auger34

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nighthob said:
There is no way to carry three max deals and one 80% max deal without blowing past the luxury tax line (I mean you're talking about $60 million for those four deals alone) except jettisoning every other player on the roister and replacing them with NBA vet min guys. A move which would pretty much guarantee that Durant walk when the time came.
I am all for prudence when not having a great roster/to keep you from going out and overpaying for mediocre talent but isn't this the exact scenario where you want your owner to nut up, take a deep breath and just realize he is going to have to pay the tax for a little bit?
 

bowiac

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bosox79 said:
A lot of people at the time thought Ibaka was better than Harden and would be a super star, even on this forum.
True story. There was a lot of skepticism of Harden, here and elsewhere. While people didn't like the Thunder giving him away, the people who thought he was a superstar were in the minority.
 

HomeRunBaker

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bosox79 said:
A lot of people at the time thought Ibaka was better than Harden and would be a super star, even on this forum.
There were questions for sure however the big reason they preferred Ibaka over Harden was the roster balance. Much of what Harden does on the floor for OKC can and was easily replaced by more Durant and more Westbrook. When you lose Ibaka there is a more than significant dropoff to Nick Collison and another when you had to replace Collison on the second unit back then.

You can argue that signing Harden over Ibaka would allow you to then flip Harden for a big better than Ibaka but now you are entering unchartered waters of finding the right partner who has the right player available which there was no certainty of occurring. I'm still 100% fine with going to bat with a core of Durant, Westbrook, and Ibaka......it wasn't the vision that cost the Thunder it was the injuries to Westbrook and Durant that you could not foresee. Both were extremely durable early in their careers with Westbrook not missing a single game during his first 5 seasons in the league while Durant played in all but 14 games during his first 7 seasons.
 

nighthob

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swingin val said:
Ibaka was not a top 30 player for the Thunder in the 2011-2012 season. And not sure anyone really expected him to make such a leap. But yes, when you have the chance to keep that core together, not sure how you don't do everything possible to keep it together.
The Thunder obviously knew as they signed him to a four year 80% max extension 2-3 months before they traded Harden to Houston. So the point stands.
 

nighthob

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tbb345 said:
I am all for prudence when not having a great roster/to keep you from going out and overpaying for mediocre talent but isn't this the exact scenario where you want your owner to nut up, take a deep breath and just realize he is going to have to pay the tax for a little bit?
OKC is only large in area. It's a tiny market. They were never going to be a luxury tax payer with the economics as they existed at that time. They decided that summer that of their two pending free agents that Ibaka was the more valuable of the two, so they signed him to his 80% max deal that fit in well with what they were paying two of the best offensive players in the game.

It's very easy to say "they should've paid" when you're rooting for a team in a megamarket oozing with money (seriously, the Boston megalopolis is the 5th or 6th biggest in the US), but for teams playing in tiny markets the economics are different. In the summer of 2012 there was no way of knowing that a future TV deal was going to blow the cap through the roof, as far as they knew there'd be incremental increases going forward and keeping all four guys under the then CBA was not feasible.
 

lovegtm

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nighthob said:
OKC is only large in area. It's a tiny market. They were never going to be a luxury tax payer with the economics as they existed at that time. They decided that summer that of their two pending free agents that Ibaka was the more valuable of the two, so they signed him to his 80% max deal that fit in well with what they were paying two of the best offensive players in the game.

It's very easy to say "they should've paid" when you're rooting for a team in a megamarket oozing with money (seriously, the Boston megalopolis is the 5th or 6th biggest in the US), but for teams playing in tiny markets the economics are different. In the summer of 2012 there was no way of knowing that a future TV deal was going to blow the cap through the roof, as far as they knew there'd be incremental increases going forward and keeping all four guys under the then CBA was not feasible.
Yeah, but (iirc) there were reports suggesting they were making quite healthy profits in OKC at the time.
 
Of course the real thing that irks everyone is OKC's ownership whining about being poor in a small market when they're only there because they fucked over a much larger one...
 

lovegtm

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What good moves has the OKC front office made since drafting Harden in 2009? I'm thinking of the current roster, and can't really come up with anything particularly positive in the past 6 years.
 
Edit: mainly trying to think of how Durant will view the team's trajectory.
 

nighthob

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It doesn't really matter what people think they should have done. As the CBA existed in 2012 they were never going to be a repeat luxury tax offender, period. And it's not like they would be going a little over the tax, the rest of that roster costs some money too, so the payroll costs would have ballooned quickly.

Yes they screwed over a much larger market to move the team to a market smaller than Providence. No, the ownership group isn't the NBA version of of George Steinbrenner, willing to spend whatever it takes. And that's the point, their market dictated that the team couldn't run $90 million + payrolls indefinitely, so they had to choose. If they made a mistake with Harden it was waiting too long to trade him, they'd've got more had they had him on the market that draft night, because every team outside New Orleans would have been willing to put together a package for Harden starting with their pick. By waiting until October they got a lot less.
 

lovegtm

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BigSoxFan said:
They got Reggie Jackson with the 24th pick overall in 2012.
Yeah, it's not bad, although once again they then did poorly at maximizing the value of an asset when they gave him and a pick away for the right to overpay Enes Kanter.
 
nighthob said:
It doesn't really matter what people think they should have done. As the CBA existed in 2012 they were never going to be a repeat luxury tax offender, period. And it's not like they would be going a little over the tax, the rest of that roster costs some money too, so the payroll costs would have ballooned quickly.

Yes they screwed over a much larger market to move the team to a market smaller than Providence. No, the ownership group isn't the NBA version of of George Steinbrenner, willing to spend whatever it takes. And that's the point, their market dictated that the team couldn't run $90 million + payrolls indefinitely, so they had to choose. If they made a mistake with Harden it was waiting too long to trade him, they'd've got more had they had him on the market that draft night, because every team outside New Orleans would have been willing to put together a package for Harden starting with their pick. By waiting until October they got a lot less.
It's true that they were never going to pay the repeater tax, but that just makes their FO look even worse, since it's not as if Harden's contract situation was unpredictable in June.
 
I didn't start out the day as Thunder front office hater, but as I think about it more, they've done pretty shitty job after that amazing run of drafting (which, admittedly, put them in title contention every year they've been healthy). If I were Durant, I'd be having pretty big doubts about their ability to upgrade the roster around me going forward.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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In some Nets housecleaning news, Steve Blake was traded to get under the luxury tax once and for all, and Thomas Robinson is getting surgery  to repair a small meniscus tear.
 
Current depth chart is something like:
Jack/Larkin/Boatright
Bogdonovich/Ellington
Johnson/RHJ/Karasev
Young/T-Rob
Lopez/Bargnani
 
 
That team looks bloody terrible, and that's assuming full health. Maybe they can trade.....ummm, something for Ty Lawson after his second DUI this year.

 
 

bowiac

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That team is rapidly approaching tire fire status. They're a Joe Johnson trade away from challenging Philly for the #1 lottery seed.
 

BoSoxFink

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bowiac said:
That team is rapidly approaching tire fire status. They're a Joe Johnson trade away from challenging Philly for the #1 lottery seed.
Which means the Celtics are a Johnson trade away from getting the number 1 pick potentially.
 

nighthob

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I'm not expecting much from the 18' pick, because I expect the team to be sold next summer, hopefully too late for them to reverse course for '17.
 

moly99

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Not only that, but even if they do convince big name free agents to join them it likely won't move them into contention. Look at the 2013/14 Knicks with Amare and Melo: 37–45 and out of the playoffs even in the East. After years of shedding contracts and giving up their high draft picks they will need to land Anthony Davis to fix the team.
 

bowiac

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37-45 would result in a less than exciting pick however. We're really rooting to land a couple teams in the 25-win range in that time.
 

HomeRunBaker

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PedroKsBambino said:
Unsurprisingly, league says that it will not tweak the FA signing period; as several said upthread, while the Jordan situation wasn't a good look, much of the commentary about the impact of Jordan backing out on the Mavs was also overstated.  
 
http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/13258468/adam-silver-says-nba-not-planning-tweak-free-agent-moratorium 
I don't know how it would be possible to tweak anything that would have avoided the DeAndre Debacle. The league needs time to audit their books following the end of their fiscal year on June 30th to determine important numbers such as salary cap and luxury tax which affects many of the contract terms being offered to FA. If you don't have a moratorium you are still going to have behind the scene discussions/agreements as we used to prior to recent CBA's. It's not like you can go into a 7-day time machine where the world stops.....although having a Marvin Barnes rule would be a wicked cool thing.
 

bowiac

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HomeRunBaker said:
I don't know how it would be possible to tweak anything that would have avoided the DeAndre Debacle. The league needs time to audit their books following the end of their fiscal year on June 30th to determine important numbers such as salary cap and luxury tax which affects many of the contract terms being offered to FA. If you don't have a moratorium you are still going to have behind the scene discussions/agreements as we used to prior to recent CBA's. It's not like you can go into a 7-day time machine where the world stops.....although having a Marvin Barnes rule would be a wicked cool thing.
There are ways around this, although all of them require union signoff. The easiest idea is simply to start the audit a week earlier, and have the income from the last week of the season apply to the subsequent season. Alternatively, you could start the audit a week earlier and estimate the last week. Because of the way the BRI split works, any errors made as result of this would ultimately be pretty minimal.
 

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bowiac said:
There are ways around this, although all of them require union signoff. The easiest idea is simply to start the audit a week earlier, and have the income from the last week of the season apply to the subsequent season. Alternatively, you could start the audit a week earlier and estimate the last week. Because of the way the BRI split works, any errors made as result of this would ultimately be pretty minimal.
I can't see how the league would/could close their fiscal years with estimates or a 51-week period, neither of which appear reasonable alternatives. How would this avoid agents shopping their guy and making side deals prior to the official date like they used to do? This is what was a regular occurrence in past years with the difference being one of the big names didn't bolt at the last moment in the Twitter age.

We have had other similar fiascos such as Jason Kidd agreeing with the Mavs then signing with the Knicks and Hedo Turkoglu doing same with Portland only to change his mind and sign with the Raptors. Twitter wasn't around nor were these elite players at the time but it has happened before. Then there is the whole Carlos Boozer sales job.

Just like Deflategate has brought offsea$on attention to the NFL the DeAndre $ituation doesn't hurt the NBA......it puts them in the headlines during the offseason which benefits the league as a whole. Nothing is changing with the moratorium.....that I'm just about certain.
 

bowiac

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https://twitter.com/ShamsCharania/status/621786946835124224
 
Twitter seems super excited by this. I have...concerns.
 

Reardon's Beard

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That team is increasingly stacked with "names" but how they play together will be another matter.
 
With Doc and The Truth maybe it pans out but it's certainly going to be interesting.
 

Kliq

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Smith's a flawed player, but he adjusted pretty well after signing with Houston and was good for them in the playoffs. Perhaps getting cut from Detroit was a much-needed wakeup call?
 

bowiac

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nattysez said:
This could be bad news in terms of the Celts keeping that pick.  Fingers crossed.
I think this is really an overreaction. I'd rather have Parsons injured than not as a Celtics fan. They're closer to the playoffs presently (but probably out) than they are to keeping that pick. That said, I'm giving them credit on doing their due diligence with Wes Mathews. There is some real catastrophic risk with both those guys.
 

Tony C

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Kliq said:
Smith's a flawed player, but he adjusted pretty well after signing with Houston and was good for them in the playoffs. Perhaps getting cut from Detroit was a much-needed wakeup call?
 
 
Yeah, took him a bit -- but he really played well. Could allow the Clippers to play a lot of small ball. 
 

bowiac

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Tony C said:
Yeah, took him a bit -- but he really played well. Could allow the Clippers to play a lot of small ball. 
The idea I'm seeing people kicking around is Smith at the 5 when Jordan is out, which actually I'm kind of on board with. Smith was very effective while playing with Terrance Jones and Motiejunas, while very ineffective playing with Dwight Howard. Some of that is timing, and most of that is made confusing due to the sample size issues, but got the strength to stand up to all but 7-8 centers, and while he doesn't have the idea rim protecting length, he's got enough other skills there that are useful.
 

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With JSmoove in the fold, I now call the Paul Pierce early retirement decision date as December 20th, 2015.  Does other team out there have the potential to be as dysfunctional as the Clippers?  I almost want this to happen publicly so that Ballmer feels compelled to give them a locker-room speech...
 

ElUno20

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They have enough talent for it not to go all to shit. But considering last year's team was only 6 deep, the squad cant be that much worse with aldrich, smith, lance, and pierce. As long as they keep crawford, they should still be in playoff contention
 

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swingin val said:
Playoff contention?

This team will most likely vie for best record in the western conference.
Dude, im a clipper fan. It's built into my dna to expect the worse. On paper they look legit, doc has to get credit if they keep crawford. Theyre like 8 or 9 deep. But they're also a team full of headcases.
 

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ElUno20 said:
Dude, im a clipper fan. It's built into my dna to expect the worse. On paper they look legit, doc has to get credit if they keep crawford. Theyre like 8 or 9 deep. But they're also a team full of headcases.
 
This is true but I agree with sv. They are, on paper, a top three or four team in the WC.
 

HomeRunBaker

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nattysez said:

 

 
 
This could be bad news in terms of the Celts keeping that pick.  Fingers crossed.
Didn't we already know it was microfracture back in April (May?) when Parsons response to the question as to whether it was microfracture or not was, "I'm not sure the Mavericks want me to say what type of surgery it was." or something to that effect?
I figured everyone assumed it was microfracture.
 

The Social Chair

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DeJesus Built My Hotrod said:
With JSmoove in the fold, I now call the Paul Pierce early retirement decision date as December 20th, 2015.  Does other team out there have the potential to be as dysfunctional as the Clippers?  
3 words... Karl Rondo Cousins
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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The Social Chair said:
3 words... Karl Rondo Cousins
Oh yeah. Though I think Randive/Vlade will lance that boil quickly by sending Karl back into retirement if he feuds with those guys. I think Boogie and Rondo will get along fine. They are buds.
 

HomeRunBaker

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DeJesus Built My Hotrod said:
With JSmoove in the fold, I now call the Paul Pierce early retirement decision date as December 20th, 2015.  Does other team out there have the potential to be as dysfunctional as the Clippers?  I almost want this to happen publicly so that Ballmer feels compelled to give them a locker-room speech...
Doc (and Pierce) handled a more dysfunctional team in Boston those last few years of their era. Doc thrives on managing these types of players. Jermaine, Big Baby, KG's insanity, the Allen/Rondo thing, Nate Robinson's craziness, Delonte West's craziness, Terrence Williams and Jordan Crawford......Doc has never shied away from taking on high maintenance players.
 

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“@ESPNSteinLine: ESPN sources say the Houston Rockets are in advanced discussions on a trade to acquire Ty Lawson from the Nuggets”