Every other article I've seen says it's a minimum contract deal with incentives that could push it to $8 million.
NBA Offseason Thread 2016
- Thread starter moondog80
- Start date
Well, as Eric Pincus says, the problem is that teams can't put incentives into minimum contracts.
The other problem is if the incentives are likely to be achieved - as I understand it - they are added to the salary base and if they are not, they are limited to 15% of the contract amount.
Here's the rules on incentives:
74. Can incentives be built into a contract? How do they apply to team salary?
There are three categories of allowable incentives: performance, academic/physical achievement, and extra promotional. The latter two categories are always included in the player's salary and team salary amounts. Performance incentives are classified as either "likely to be achieved" or "not likely to be achieved," with only the likely incentives included in the player's salary and team salary amounts. The determination of whether an incentive is likely or unlikely is based on whether the criterion was achieved in the previous season. For example, if a player had seven assists per game the previous season, then an incentive based on seven assists per game would be classified as likely to be achieved, but one based on eight assists per game would be classified as not likely.
If either the league or players association feels that the previous season does not fairly predict the performance in the current season, then a jointly-selected expert determines whether the default classification should be overruled. This can happen when the player was injured the previous season.
Unlikely bonuses in any season are limited to 15% of the player's regular salary in that season. In the first season of a contract the base salary, likely bonuses and unlikely bonuses must all fit within the salary cap or exception. The league determines a team's available room under the cap or an exception by adding in the unlikely bonuses for all players who signed that season. This prevents a team from signing multiple players to lower salaries but with lots of unlikely bonuses that collectively exceed the cap room it has to offer. For example, if the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level exception is $5 million and this exception is used to sign a player to a contract with $2 million in base salary and $200,000 in unlikely incentives, then only $2.8 million of their Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level exception can be used to sign other players.
Incentives must be structured so that they provide an incentive for positive achievement by the player or team, and are based upon numerical benchmarks (such as points per game or team wins) or generally recognized league honors.(1) The numerical benchmarks must be specific -- for example, a bonus may be based on the player's free throw percentage exceeding 80%, but may not be based on a relative measure such as the player's free throw percentage improving over his previous season's percentage. Certain kinds of incentives are not allowed, such as those based on the player being on the team's roster on a specific date or for a specific number of games.
All performance incentives are re-evaluated at the start of each season to determine whether they should be classified as likely or not likely to be achieved. Performance incentives are recomputed when a player is traded, but only if they are team-related and based on the previous-season performance of the team. For example, suppose Team A won 25 games last season, and Team B (with the league MVP) won 55. Also suppose the MVP has a performance incentive that is based on his team winning 30 games. Going into the season this incentive would be classified as likely to be achieved, since his team (Team B) won 55 games the previous season. Now suppose this player is traded to Team A in exchange for draft picks. The incentive would be recomputed upon the trade, and in this case would be reclassified from likely to unlikely to be achieved, since the player's new team won fewer than 30 games the previous season (even though adding the MVP should easily push Team A's win total above 30).(2)
Other rules related to incentives:
- Minimum salary contracts cannot contain bonuses of any kind.
- The rules for raises (and decreases) also apply to incentives. When salary increases or decreases are limited to 4.5% or 7.5%, then likely and unlikely bonuses may each increase or decrease by 4.5% or 7.5%, respectively (see question number 55).
- If a contract with bonuses is extended (see question number 60), then the extension must have the same bonuses. The bonus amounts may increase or decrease by up to 7.5%, but they can't be left off.
- The Amnesty provision has specific rules related to incentives. See question number 69 for more information.
(2) An interesting case of bonus recomputation occurred during the 2013-14 season. Luke Ridnour had a performance bonus that was based on his team making the playoffs. At the start of the season he played for Milwaukee, which had made the playoffs the previous season, so his bonus was classified as likely. Ridenour was later traded to Charlotte, which had missed the playoffs the previous season, so his bonus was reclassified to unlikely upon the trade. Therefore, Ridnour ironically went from having a likely bonus he wasn't going to earn, to having an unlikely bonus he was going to earn.
Yeah reports were all over the place early. Not a big deal really for a bench player as it doesn't affect the Lakers cap space next summer while earning the revenue from the Asian market on Yi playing in the league which can't be understated.
http://www.todaysfastbreak.com/nba-east/new-york-knicks/phil-jackson-chronicles-part-7-2015-16-season-postmortem/
Phil saying he almost got Crowder to Knicks, but chose not to because of Carmelo.
Phil saying he almost got Crowder to Knicks, but chose not to because of Carmelo.
Maybe I'm being stupid, but why did he make it seem like Boston gave him the choice of Crowder or the 2nd round pick. The 2nd rounder (that turned into Cleanthony Early) was part of the Olynyk draft trade of 2013, and Crowder was traded to the Celtics (Dec 2014) after Early was picked earlier in 2014. Was there some kind of conditions attached to the draft pick? Or was he just mistaken about the timeline and it was Dallas who offered him that (maybe he had notes from Jun 2014 that said "DA offered me Crowder or the 2nd" but meant it as Dallas and not Danny Ainge?) Or Phil's just getting old...
This was clearly a typo as it should have read "In talking to Dallas" rather than to Boston. Crowder had already projected to lose minutes with the Mavs bench being upgraded at the 3/4 position with Aminu and Jefferson. At the time Jae was an energy guy who couldn't shoot and played out of control at times while wearing out his welcome in Dallas.
Refresh my memory; this means they traded Brandon knight for tony snell?
That's horrible
Technically it shakes out to Knight for Tony Snell, Miles Plumlee and Michael Beasley (Tyler Ennis was in the trade, then traded to HOU for Beas), but yeah.
Why? Is there something wrong with a backcourt that collectively shoots < 30% from behind the arc?
Such is life as a small market team in the NBA. Decisions had to be made and while Monroe hasn't worked out as well as they thought it was perfectly reasonable to see why Hammond would move a small due a big raise to sign a big when the only other 4/5's on your roster are John Henson and Jabari Parker.
Moving Knight sure, but turning him into MCW when you could have had the Lakers' pick is crazy. The problem wasn't the decision to trade Knight (a good move I think) it was execution. They brought back a mediocre PG who couldn't shoot to a team that desperately needed either shooting or top end talent. I think they tricked themselves into thinking they could split the difference on contending by bringing in a player immediately instead of taking a very good draft pick, or that they could teach MCW to shoot (they couldn't).
I don't believe for one second the Lakers were giving up their high lottery pick which still could have been the #1 overall for Knight. That would have been insane......teams don't make moves like this anymore unless your name is Billy King.
The Suns owned the Lakers pick with minimal protection, which they sent to Milwaukee for Knight. The Bucks rerouted that pick for MCW.
NBA and the players Association are close to a new CBA. This would be another feather in Silver's cap.
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/sources-nba-players-association-push-closer-to-new-cba-224612785.html
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/sources-nba-players-association-push-closer-to-new-cba-224612785.html
An even bigger one for Michele Roberts in her first go-around if she gets some of the concessions she is looking for. Good to see both side working together at such an early stage.
If anyone is curious on Yi's contract, Pincus has the details here: http://www.basketballinsiders.com/nba-am-lakers-creative-with-yi-jianlian-contract/. Apparently the Lakers were very creative. For salary cap purposes, it's 1 year/$8M (the whole contract is "likely") but only $250K is guaranteed. And while the NBA prohibits date incentives, there are games played clauses. Details:
Interesting.
- Only $250,000 of Yi's contract is fully guaranteed.
- Yi's base salary of $1,139,123 -- the minimum for a player with five years of NBA experience -- will become guaranteed if he is still on the roster on Jan. 10, 2017.
- Yi will make an additional $2,286,959 if/when he plays in his 20th game, his 40th game and 59th game.
- If he plays in 20 games, he'll make $3.4 million. If he plays in 40 games, he'll make $5.7 million. If he plays in 60 games, he'll make the full $8 million.
Interesting.
Wolves stuff from my guy:
Tyus Jones has been on the block since the night of the draft but now the Sixers are aggressively pursuing him. The thought process is that Dunn takes over by January or so and whoever Rubio lands with with send an experienced PG back to Minnesota so Jones really has no role there.
Dunn struggled with adjusting to the pace early on but looked great tonight. I'm not concerned about his slow start at that position at all. Even Stockton and Nash took several years to solidify themselves in the league.
Tyus Jones has been on the block since the night of the draft but now the Sixers are aggressively pursuing him. The thought process is that Dunn takes over by January or so and whoever Rubio lands with with send an experienced PG back to Minnesota so Jones really has no role there.
Dunn struggled with adjusting to the pace early on but looked great tonight. I'm not concerned about his slow start at that position at all. Even Stockton and Nash took several years to solidify themselves in the league.
That's a pretty large step down from Dunn, and all to hold on to an extra pick that has no guarantees of being in the top five.
Here's the current version of my NBA picks. These do incorporate preseason results to date, which causes big negative impacts on the Clippers, Hornets, Mavericks, Magic, and Nets, and big positive impacts on the Rockets, Wizards, and Wolves.
I still need to rescale the results (the average team is winning 40.6 games here only, so add like 0.4 wins per team), and am still hoping to build in a few more adjustments to the projections, most notably for rookies. I will post another update Monday night.
I still need to rescale the results (the average team is winning 40.6 games here only, so add like 0.4 wins per team), and am still hoping to build in a few more adjustments to the projections, most notably for rookies. I will post another update Monday night.
What is driving the Cavs number? That one seems out of line.Here's the current version of my NBA picks. These do incorporate preseason results to date, which causes big negative impacts on the Clippers, Hornets, Mavericks, Magic, and Nets, and big positive impacts on the Rockets, Wizards, and Wolves.
I still need to rescale the results (the average team is winning 40.6 games here only, so add like 0.4 wins per team), and am still hoping to build in a few more adjustments to the projections, most notably for rookies. I will post another update Monday night.
It'd be fun to parley the Houston over and the Clippers under.
How accurate were your largest over and under predictions last year? Did they both cover?
How accurate were your largest over and under predictions last year? Did they both cover?
Uh, that was a fat finger error due to JR Smith's late signing: I had a replacement level playing in those minutes instead. They're actually at 52 wins. I am somewhat down on them regardless. They were at 55.2 wins coming into the year, but have had a poor preseason.
Good catch.
I went 23-7 last year overall, 11-2 on teams with a differential of at least 3 wins from Vegas, and 3-0 on teams with a differential of at least 7 wins. The biggest loser I had was Miami, which I had at 40 wins vs. 46.5 at the Westgate.
Yeah, that seems shockingly low for the champs, especially given the youth of Kyrie, Love, Tristan Thompson and Shumpert; and the improved chemistry likely to come with another year of jelling from the core rotation guys under Lue.
Only thing I can imagine are (1) thinness at the C position (where they're even smaller, softer defensively, and less deep than the Warriors); and (2) potential age-related regression from the King (turns 32 in December, and has a ton of mileage for a guy his age -- already far more career minutes than Bird or Magic).
Edit: just saw your comment about the JR Smith omission. I suspected that might be a factor too.
Curious about the Rockets' number too. I do think they've been a little under the radar, but #3 in the league seems like a pretty big stretch unless Harden, Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon all learn to play defense simultaneously. Also, Pat Beverley, probably their best perimeter defender, just had knee surgery and is out at least three weeks, which I suspect may not be factored in.
As for my Ws: it's really hard for me to imagine them getting to 72 wins, given all their new/young players and Kerr's open statements about resting guys and experimenting with different lineups. To me, 72 wins would likely entail early blossoming of Patrick McCaw and Kevon Looney (both not yet 21) into legit rotation players, great health from all the core guys, and a return to peak Denver form by JaVale McGee. All of which would be fine to me ... but man, if all that happens, the rest of the league might need to fold up its tents more than it's already doing.
Also, 70+ wins (i.e. 12 losses or less) just seems like a poor bet for any team due to normal random variation. It'd be kinda like betting on peak Pedro to get to 25 wins. There's a reason only two teams in the history of the league have ever broken 70. The Vegas # (as an over-under) seems a lot more believable to me.
Only thing I can imagine are (1) thinness at the C position (where they're even smaller, softer defensively, and less deep than the Warriors); and (2) potential age-related regression from the King (turns 32 in December, and has a ton of mileage for a guy his age -- already far more career minutes than Bird or Magic).
Edit: just saw your comment about the JR Smith omission. I suspected that might be a factor too.
Curious about the Rockets' number too. I do think they've been a little under the radar, but #3 in the league seems like a pretty big stretch unless Harden, Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon all learn to play defense simultaneously. Also, Pat Beverley, probably their best perimeter defender, just had knee surgery and is out at least three weeks, which I suspect may not be factored in.
As for my Ws: it's really hard for me to imagine them getting to 72 wins, given all their new/young players and Kerr's open statements about resting guys and experimenting with different lineups. To me, 72 wins would likely entail early blossoming of Patrick McCaw and Kevon Looney (both not yet 21) into legit rotation players, great health from all the core guys, and a return to peak Denver form by JaVale McGee. All of which would be fine to me ... but man, if all that happens, the rest of the league might need to fold up its tents more than it's already doing.
Also, 70+ wins (i.e. 12 losses or less) just seems like a poor bet for any team due to normal random variation. It'd be kinda like betting on peak Pedro to get to 25 wins. There's a reason only two teams in the history of the league have ever broken 70. The Vegas # (as an over-under) seems a lot more believable to me.
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Not sure I understand why Minnesota is so desperate to trade Rubio. Guard depth is a nice thing to have, and I'd prefer to see Dunn prove himself before dealing Rubio who is on a reasonable contract.
Surgery for Sully. Talented guy but too many physical (and eating) issues to overcome to have a sustainable career.
Here's an update on my projections, adding in a bunch of rookie projections, and simplifying my model for incorporating preseason results.
No dramatic changes, and yeah, I'd still take the under on that Warriors numbers, but this is mostly an exercise in model-building, so I'm not doing any fudge factors.I remain long on the Rockets mostly, and short on the Bucks.
No dramatic changes, and yeah, I'd still take the under on that Warriors numbers, but this is mostly an exercise in model-building, so I'm not doing any fudge factors.I remain long on the Rockets mostly, and short on the Bucks.
What do you attribute that 9 win swing for the Clippers? And thanks for posting these, by the way.
That's why I simplified the model for incorporating preseason results. The Clippers have had a really terrible preseason, which is actually pretty strongly predictive. I originally built a fairly complex Bayesian model, but it was generating some screwy results in some cases (like the Clippers). Maybe those results were correct, but it's also possible I had screwed up the math somewhere. Given I had the Clippers 13 games worse than Vegas said, I concluded it was more likely I was making a mistake somewhere.
As result, I went back to a simpler regression approach. This is what I used last year.
They aren't desperate yet as they don't want to rush Dunn or give him entitlements. Heard the latter is frustrated in learning new role of spot minutes which is expected as they all want to produce right out of the gate (see: Russell, DeAngelo) but imo that is the best way to break in a young player as a rookie in forcing them to "earn" minutes.
If I had to guess on a match for Rubio it would be a WC team where he can play more of an open court position.......Sacramento would love him and has Gay to move. This could happen prior to the deadline if Dunn shows he is ready (unlikely to really be ready so soon) to take more minutes while allowing time to decide on extending Gay or moving him at the deadline.
I had that thought re: Philly, too. Good fit from Philly's perspective, but not sure who the piece going the other way is. I could see Thibs loving Noel, but I think the Towns/Noel fit is too clunky in the end.
I also, though, think that Rubio's hugely underrated and that Dunn needs to outplay him before Minnesota deals him, and there's no guarantee that ever happens, let alone that it happens before the trade deadline. From an RPM standpoint Rubio was a top 5 point guard last year. He's a very good defender, has excellent court vision, and Minnesota fell apart when he wasn't on the floor last year. They were +9.1/100 possessions with Rubio on the floor last year.
I also, though, think that Rubio's hugely underrated and that Dunn needs to outplay him before Minnesota deals him, and there's no guarantee that ever happens, let alone that it happens before the trade deadline. From an RPM standpoint Rubio was a top 5 point guard last year. He's a very good defender, has excellent court vision, and Minnesota fell apart when he wasn't on the floor last year. They were +9.1/100 possessions with Rubio on the floor last year.
No. I could calculate them, but it's not something I track. I project each team's likelihood of winning every game, and add up the wins, so I could figure this out I suppose.
It's interesting to me that Houston and Indiana have two of the largest discrepancies with Vegas. I think those are the two teams that have been the most underrated and overrated, respectively, by the fans and media heading into the season. I've seen multiple sites picking Indiana to be in ECF and I don't see them as a top four team in East. Houston has flaws but they have as good as chance as any to be #2 in the west.