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crossing the Eurosteppes on the Ginobili trail has its attractions.
NBA 20/21 season thread
- Thread starter DJnVa
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Jonathan Tjarks has an article in the Ringer about rebuilding teams and constructing a roster for fit over talent, especially if you're not drafting an elite player like Zion.
For example, his prime example of doing it wrong is (of course) the Knicks, who drafted RJ Barrett and Obi Toppen, but won't be able to build their value because the roster won't let them exploit their best skillsets:
Anyways, I thought it was an interesting read, considering we're often discussing drafting for fit or best player available, and all the considerations around constructing rosters based on those decisions.
For example, his prime example of doing it wrong is (of course) the Knicks, who drafted RJ Barrett and Obi Toppen, but won't be able to build their value because the roster won't let them exploit their best skillsets:
The takeaway here:
Then they add Obi Toppin, which again exacerbates roster issues and may prevent their lottery pick from being able to flourish:
Tjarks contrasts the Knicks with the Thunder. Not only have they amassed a boatload of picks, but even outside of that, they reshaped their roster to accommodate SGA and his style of play:
Add to this the idea of getting veterans that aren't fighting for their next contract, something Celtics fans can sympathize with:
What all this makes me think of is the Hinkie era. Hinkie was absolutely right about certain things, like bottoming out being preferable to being on the treadmill of mediocrity and focusing on acquiring and maximizing assets, but what he didn't do was maximize those assets once they were on his roster. Drafting centers three straight drafts was a great way to kill whatever value Okafor and Noel had, hurting the team both on the court and in its value acquisition process. He should have sold higher and earlier on those guys if Embiid was ultimately the one to build around.
Anyways, I thought it was an interesting read, considering we're often discussing drafting for fit or best player available, and all the considerations around constructing rosters based on those decisions.
Oof, the knives are out for Harden, this reads like a piece the Globe would publish after the Sox have a messy personnel departure:
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/30528130/james-harden-houston-rockets-breaking-point
There’s also Larry Legend Stealaway, on the opposite side of Havlicek‘s Steal Away, with elevations noted.
I haven’t found a reference to Cousy. Or, worse, to George Mikan. I mean, there’s a Mount Mutombo but not a Mt. Mikan? That’s a massive miss. Also missing Maya Moore, if I’m not mistaken (not in the UConn territory that I can see).
I love that Westbrook, who sometimes seems ridiculously out of control ON the court, is like that off the court.
And now I can hate Harden's game AND the way he conducts himself.
A lot of "former" staff or front office folks quoted, so I don't think it's so much a coordinated effort from the current management, didn't mean to imply that. But a lot of seemingly unhappy folks who used to be with the team willing to let the stories out at this point.
Yeah, remember, they just got a new GM and a new coach, there has been a lot of turnover there, so plenty of people with no reason not to talk.
View: https://twitter.com/shamscharania/status/1339714292682280960?s=21
Per Shams, Philly has made Simmons available in some Harden trade packages but “conversations aren’t fluid as of now.”
Per Shams, Philly has made Simmons available in some Harden trade packages but “conversations aren’t fluid as of now.”
That would have been Boston had they managed to keep Kyrie from leaving via free agency.
Reports were HOU wanted Simmons and multiple first round picks. Wonder if they settle on Simmons and a couple highly protected picks.
Can Houston really do better than Simmons?
Also lol at Ben Simmons and John Wall playing together.
Also lol at Ben Simmons and John Wall playing together.
I think that fit is pretty decent honestly. Wall is an inconsistent 3pt shooter, but he's a willing one, and if Wall is back, that's a filthy defensive backcourt. I like Wall and Simmons as my 2 guys to build around a lot more than Simmons and Embiid as far as fit (now talent and age is a different thing), add in Wood, Gordon, McLemore, even Brown and Tucker can shoot.
Simmons is clearly the best guy Houston can get, even if there's nothing else in the package, imo.
I guess it's a worthwhile gamble for Philly, but honestly I worry a lot about Embiid/Harden. I get why it might work but it's a big bet on Harden. Which Morey has made a couple times before, of course.
I guess it's a worthwhile gamble for Philly, but honestly I worry a lot about Embiid/Harden. I get why it might work but it's a big bet on Harden. Which Morey has made a couple times before, of course.
No chance. And they know this, but they are trying to squeeze a pick or two from Philly. If anything, Philly should be getting a pick from Houston. Simmons might be the best piece ever coming back in a superstar trade (in terms of value at time of trade, which eliminates the Brooklyn picks).
I think it depends. Simmons is the best single player right now that they are likely to get back, but I don't know that a Simmons package is necessarily the best package.
There are cases for a deal built around MPJ/Barton/Harris/1sts or Wiseman/Wiggins/Wolves pick + being better overall returns.
I don't think the BRK or MIA many pieces trades are likely in the same class. Siakam+ from TOR is decent but I think Simmons is clearly better.
The chances of either of those packages yielding even one all star appearance have to be less than 50%, maybe way less; Simmons has already made it twice and will only be be 24 this year. Guys as good and as young as him are almost never available in these deals, there is no way they could take another offer is he is truly on the table.
I dunno. Simmons is already a top 20 player. All those other deals might yield more value but they’re a ton riskier. You never know what picks you’ll get and what players you’ll get with those picks. We were all fired up about the SAC and MEM picks and they turned out to be Romeo Langford and Aaron Nesmith.
Simmons is a franchise cornerstone talent. It would be really hard to beat that and I wouldn’t get cute if I were Houston.
I think there is a case, and a big part of it is.... will Simmons continue to refuse to take 3s.
If he will that puts a hard ceiling on him. He can be an excellent defender, very good facilitator, but combine an unwillingness to even attempt 3s with a FT% in the low 60s and you have a guy who can't be the #1 option on a contender. Simmons might be a better player, but if MPJ for example is really a 50/42/85 guy at high usage, that's easier to see as a #1 option on a title team, and it's a lot easier to build around an elite scorer who is at least as good a rebounder, even if he's not the defender or passer.
So yeah, I think that's a pretty easy case to make, that you'd rather have a guy who is gonna give you 27/10/3 on great percentages, plus two guys who were key pieces on a WCF contender and picks is the better package.
Remember MPJ is 2 year younger than Simmons, and had a really impressive rookie year last year after missing his first, while Simmons is going into his 5th year (4th playing).
I think people are really underselling both MPJ floor and his upside, while also assigning Simmons more ceiling than he seems to have left. That's especially important when you talk about a Harden deal because......
Harden is a lot better than Ben Simmons. If you're just swapping them it's a clear downgrade. I can understand the thought process of....
1. We're better off with a possibly unhappy Harden who is a better player than with SImmons and/or
2. We're better off with a player with a higher ceiling than Simmons and a bunch of other pieces than just Simmons.
Yeah I'm not seeing the rush to swap out a guy who has made 1st team All-NBA 6 times in the last 7 seasons and also finishing top 3 in the MVP voting 5 times in 6 seasons for Ben Simmons, the worst shooting wing in the league. Harden may be nearing the end of his prime while Simmons is just coming up on his, but unless Simmons develops an outside shot (not looking very likely), his absolute ceiling is 2nd team All-NBA, with nothing more than incremental improvements forthcoming. With Harden (signed for 2 more years plus a massive player option) they are still a solid 2nd tier title contender. Swap him out for Simmons, I don't even think they are a playoff team. Waiting to see if a better option opens up (or to bleed a bunch of picks from Philly) is absolutely the correct course. What's the rush?
Sure, but they usually don't get it with this much time left on their contract, and that means they can afford to be picky. Especially once he showed up for preseason games.
The lack of jumper from Simmons is a big question mark, and it isn't just three pointers, he basically doesn't shoot at all outside of 15 feet. The fact that he has seemingly refused to take them despite the fact that everyone seems to agree that he would be a better player if he did take those shots is very alarming.
However, he is still an incredible player despite that glaring weakness, and he has not been put in the best position to succeed in Philadelphia. Even if the jumper never comes, he needs to play as a 4 or a 5, who can also handle the ball in transition, and be used as a screener and roll-guy, who can playmake from the elbows. He can't do that with Embiid and he certainly couldn't do it with Embiid AND Horford on the court with him. In another environment I would expect him to go up another level, and he is already pretty damn good.
However, he is still an incredible player despite that glaring weakness, and he has not been put in the best position to succeed in Philadelphia. Even if the jumper never comes, he needs to play as a 4 or a 5, who can also handle the ball in transition, and be used as a screener and roll-guy, who can playmake from the elbows. He can't do that with Embiid and he certainly couldn't do it with Embiid AND Horford on the court with him. In another environment I would expect him to go up another level, and he is already pretty damn good.
Simmons is a very flawed player who hasn't shown any sign of development in the area of his game that everyone's said needed to improve since he was drafted. This is the issue.
Personally, I don't trade Harden for him + picks. Let the season start, let's see how we do. Wall looks healthy, Wood looked really good tonight and Cousins also looks reasonably fit. We'll win a bunch of games, the team's floor is pretty high, let's see where the ceiling is. If we start out well, say 9-3 in the first 12 games (reasonable given the schedule), we'll be a top 3 seed. The narrative will change. We have a well-rounded roster compared to last year, let's see if the ceiling is as high. Harden won't need to average 35ppg for us to win.
Personally, I don't trade Harden for him + picks. Let the season start, let's see how we do. Wall looks healthy, Wood looked really good tonight and Cousins also looks reasonably fit. We'll win a bunch of games, the team's floor is pretty high, let's see where the ceiling is. If we start out well, say 9-3 in the first 12 games (reasonable given the schedule), we'll be a top 3 seed. The narrative will change. We have a well-rounded roster compared to last year, let's see if the ceiling is as high. Harden won't need to average 35ppg for us to win.
He is still a helluva player, but considering his historic inability to shoot from the outside, he's never going to approach Harden's current (or near future) production. In today's NBA it's difficult to succeed with more than 1 player on the court who can't hit open 3s, so while it's true that he's miscast alongside Embiid, he's going to be a rough fit in many lineups. The only way for him to reach his ceiling is to build a team around him, and while there are certainly teams that would like to build around a player who just finished 59th in ppg (just behind Malcolm Brogdon and Marcus Morris), I don't think anyone should be all that excited about giving up a perennial MVP candidate (and arguably the best half court offensive player in the league) for the privilege. This is also ignoring his troubling end to this past season (nerve, back and knee issues for a 23 year old?) and his near total lack of improvement over his career.
He's already an all-star, but a player with his limitations just won't ever be an alpha on a title contender. Houston has time, and should hold out for more. If Simmons is the best player they can get, that means draft picks to ease their rebuild.
Honestly if Simmons and a pick is the best that they can do they should attempt to steer Simmons to OKC for draft capital and just finish the demolition.
I really really like Simmons, and at first I thought it was crazy to think that he couldn't be the centerpiece of this deal.
But I agree with the point that he has to be the #2 player on a championship team....which is fine if you have a route to a #1 in the next 5 years. But Houston's pick situation is really shitty, and so they don't have that path, especially with someone like Simmons helping get wins.
Trading him to a team that already has a scorer they like (Shai) and has a ton of paths to a #1 makes a lot of sense. In addition, the Rockets picks to OKC don't have as much upside as you'd want (1-4 protected and 1-10 on swaps), so it would make sense for OKC to send some of those back.
If the Rockets can turn Harden into a couple picks+having their future back, it would make some sense.
Whether you keep Simmons is a separate question from whether you do the deal, though.
Houston's future with Simmons is a lot more interetsing than with Harden given age and motivation.
The idea that a collection of less-valuable assets aggregate to more than Simmons is neither likely nor consistent with the history of these deals. You want to get a prime asset back, and the only case for not getting the single best asset you're offered is if there's a big difference in pick value (like the OKC Westbrook level of picks). Most picks, and most young players, don't develop. Simmons, for his flaws, already has.
Houston's future with Simmons is a lot more interetsing than with Harden given age and motivation.
The idea that a collection of less-valuable assets aggregate to more than Simmons is neither likely nor consistent with the history of these deals. You want to get a prime asset back, and the only case for not getting the single best asset you're offered is if there's a big difference in pick value (like the OKC Westbrook level of picks). Most picks, and most young players, don't develop. Simmons, for his flaws, already has.
And to pile on it goes beyond the lack of a jump shot. He also sucks at free throws. If your team’s primary ball handler can’t be trusted to hit a FT in the waning seconds of a close game you’ve got a problem. His FT% had been improving each season however last season was .621 which is not good.
He is special on defense and a terror running downhill on a fast break. His vision and passing are outstanding but with his existing weaknesses he is not an alpha and given that he is a complementary player and not a centerpiece that a team can be built around.
Disagree here. He is someone you absolutely can build around, especially considering he has defensive player of the year potential. Maybe a team centered around him doesn't have championship aspirations, but a team of Simmons and a whole bunch of 3 and D guys is something I would love to see.
You may be right and I’m not well enough versed in the NBA outside of the Celtics to see it. It would be interesting to figure out who would be on that team and how the pieces would fit including salaries. It could be that I’m biased by seeing the last few versions of the 76ers where the sum of the parts appears to me to be less than it should be. Maybe it’s as simple as Simmons and Embiid are not a good pairing.
I’m not sure that DPOY potential translates to players I would want to build a team around. Going back through winners from the past ten years certainly Giannis and Kawhi are alphas but Gobert, Green, Noah, Gasol, Chandler and Howard feel more like complementary pieces. Of course none of those guys are 6’10” PGs and Simmons is unique. I keep coming back to if Simmons is your best player it is unlikely that your team is going to win a championship.
A team like Houston shouldn't worry about if Simmons is a good enough player to be the best guy on a title team. They're in a full rebuild so they just need to add pieces and Simmons seems like the best realistic piece they can potentially acquire. I think the best way to maximize Simmons' skills is to put him at C or PF and just build a team full of switchable wings and shooters around him. His lack of shooting will probably never be fixed so you need to mitigate that as best you can by having multiple shooters out there to spread out the defense and open up the paint. You also need a secondary ball handler who can get to the rim when it slows down into a half court game, where Simmons' lack of shooting really becomes a hindrance. I do think the Simmons/Embiid pairing is a little awkward.
See I disagree with this in part. Yes you want prime assets, BUT, you also want upside and the chance at a #1 on a title team. The Heat deal is a case of a lot of less assets, but something like a MPJ deal in particular is less so, because it also involves a prime asset, one that is younger and has the potential to be better than Simmons, AND it involves really good other assets.
Beyond that... HOU isn't in a teardown, which is incredibly rare for a team trading a top 10 player, so they also want to look at what lets them have an extended window, because that team is not set up to tank at all.
Wall, Cousins, Wood, Gordon, Tucker, Barton, Harris, MPJ is a really good team, and arguably it is a better team than adding Simmons instead of the last 3. That team needs MPJ to get shots up, and it can afford for him to be mediocre on defense. That team with Simmons is less clear... the spacing might be okay, it might not, but then you're depending on Wall to be your real #1, and you still have the "what do I do with a guy who can't hit FTs or shoot in crunch time, but derives his offensive value from having the ball" issue with Simmons. MPJ on the other hand... you give him the ball and let him cook in crunch time.
The trick is you want to get one asset that is moderately known and has top end potential. Simmons is a top end player, but there are concerns about the type of player he is and what if any ceiling is left. MPJ is less proven, but he's shown a lot in one year, and his ceiling and play type is right in line with what you want from your #1 guy.
The first part of your post is important and I think some people are missing that this is about getting equal value to Harden in a trade; unless they are flipping Harden for LeBron, Giannis, Kawhi, etc. they will not be getting equal value for him since he is clearly a top five player in the NBA. It is about getting pieces back and hopefully being able to attract future players to Houston; and having a young all-star, even one with obvious flaws, is a great place to start.
The irony of all of this is that I think Simmons and Harden playing together could be very good, since Harden is a willing passer who can create more scoring opportunities for Simmons, even with his non-existent jumper. This is why I'd be more interested in Harden for Embiid swap, since I just don't believe Embiid will ever be in good enough condition to be the centerpiece of a title team.
There's also a Larry Legend Lake near the Havlicek Steal Away.
Mikan gets a Mikan Rule Road on the right side of the key.
As for Cousy and Moore, I think they will need to appear in the second editiion along with Ionescu. I do like that there's a Tommy Point on the Auerbach Trail, and a Big Baby Magic Spot.
You are way higher on MPJ than I am, well at least the version I saw in the DEN-LAL playoff series last year. Yes he can score and rebound but defensively, he was basically unplayable a lot of time (which is why he only played over 22 minutes once). It wasn't that he wasn't trying; it was almost as if he had no idea how to play defense, and that includes both on-ball and off-ball.
MPJ averaged 16 mpg last year. Ben Simmons was a top 20 player without a jump shot. If I had to choose between the two of them, I'd take Simmons. Plus, who knows when a light bulb might go off in Simmons' head?
I'm not sure posters mostly being like "This dude might be able to stick in the NBA" in that thread is on the same level as "I'd rather have MPJ than Ben Simmons." The Nuggets and their fanbase and Nuggets sympathetic media people hype their players almost as much as the Lakers and the Knicks, it's wild. Not to say that MPJ couldn't possibly be a good player, but if he never learns to play defense he's like Brandon Ingram or something. Simmons is already better than that, absent any improvement with his shooting, or moving to a team that can construct itself around his specific flaws.Have you taken a stroll in the Payton Pritchard thread lately?
I think two places I'd see differently.
First, to win a title you need 3-4 specific profiles/talent levels and you don't need to get them in any order. You do need to get them. So getting a great number two, if you have nothing, is a big step to getting a 1 because it makes your team a lot more appealing.
Second people, both fans and GMs, get enamored with the possible upside of players/picks without being quite as conscious of the probabilities involved. The MPJ-Simmons comparison is a good example of this to me. The odds that MPJ is ever as good a player as Simmons is now are small---10%? 25%? MPJ isn't mediocre defensive player, he's so awful he was benched for periods because of it. There is only one thing on a basketball court MPJ is even close to doing as well as Simmons, which is of course outside shooting. That matters, but the rest matters more in aggregate and MPJ is not even close to Simmons defensively, passing, ball handling, rebounding, penetration. I like his upside but it just is not likely he will make up all the ground across several of those. Could he? Sure. But viewed practically, you're getting a much inferior player today and a guy who likely is not as good ever just because yo uhave a small---5%?---chance that he is not only better than Simmons but also a true number 1. You can rightly criticize Simmons' outside shot and the impacts, but Porter's defense is much worse and much more impactful---it's not really debateable. It may be more likely to get better, but it's a lot of projection again
I know you need to take chances to get from where Houston is to a title team but that to me is a bad gamble. MPJ was 89th in RPM last year....among power forwards. You obviously aren't doing a deal for him based primarily on what he is right now, but I think you're wildly underestimating how far away he is from what Simmons already is. There's a case for MPJ over Herro based on upside, but the gap with Simmons today is just too large, imo.
In theory you’re right, the problem in Houston’s case is that they sold their future drafts for John Wall and a heavily protected Washington #1. So building around Simmons properly is absolutely going to be hugely difficult for them. Now, if they’d never made the Westbrook trade and had simply waited a year and sent CP3 to Phoenix instead, then yes, absolutely you take a shot. But that’s not Houston’s reality.
So moving him on to a third team in a position to properly put a team around him is probably a better option. And, luckily for them, the team in the best position to do that already has more first round picks than they can ever use. The fact that they would have to eat Horford’s contract hurts somewhat, but on the bright side it means that OKC will need to add to the package.
For the Thunder the motivation is obvious, a Simmons/Wall team isn’t a contender, but it just might make the playoffs. From their standpoint they’d only be losing a mid first pick in ‘21 by making a deal. A Wall/Bacon Bits team is right in the middle of the Cade Cunningham Derby.
Exactly. I'm one of the guys who's psyched that we might have a PG3 in year one drafted at 26. Given Kemba's uncertainty, I think that could come in handy. But I don't see PP going to any all star games.
Porter has a pedigree, which is great. But sweet mother of God, he doesn't belong in the same sentence as Simmons. I don't even see it as likely that Simmons ever wins as ring as the best player on his team, but you could drive a truck between where he is now and where MPJ likely will ever become.
If I were Houston I'd take Simmons and at least explore a team around him to play his way, which (ironically) looks offensively a lot like the team you'd want around Westbrook---you'd want perimeter shooters, keeping the lane open, and you'd want to encourage running. The are set up that way already. I'd try that this year and see, and then think about flipping him elsewhere based on what happens---does Wood show he's real, can you get some picks for Tucker etc. You are probably right that ulitmately you have to move Simmons and really start over, but it's worth considering just trying it for a year...he's pretty special at what he does do well.
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