NBA Offseason--and now INTO the season.

BigSoxFan

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even better when Klay comes back...Steph, Klay, Harden, Dray would be fun to watch...

Wiseman will take a few seasons to develop along with any 1 and done guys they draft in 2021 - timelines don't match up
Absolutely but trading Wiseman, Minny 2021, and 3-4 future picks absolutely guts the future for a team that just won 3 titles. I’d rather hang onto those assets and re-evaluate once I have a better handle on Klay’s recovery and Wiseman’s development.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I read in one of these threads that someone thought the longer Houston waited, the better the return would be for them. I was thinking the opposite.

Even if that person is right, I think it favors the Celtics if the Harden process is dragged out. It gives a chance for one of the young players to establish themselves and for Walker to prove he's healthy. And if Simmons really isn't available, I think the C's might actually be able to compete with any of the other offers out there without including Jaylen if one or two of Langford, Nesmith, TL, Grant, etc are showing serious promise.

Without Simmons in the mix, I think the best offer might be picks and promising prospects. Who else would be offering anything close to Brown, never mind Brown +? I guess Denver could do something around Porter or Murray but I'm not sure how well a fit Harden would be with Jokic. Honestly, I think Denver would be better off exploring a trade for Bradley Beal.

The more I look, the less I see Houston getting much of a return. So few teams meet the requirement of competing for a title and having a young established star to trade. If Simmons or Brown were/are on the table for Harden, Houston should pretty much bite right away. They aren't going to find another top 50 player under the age of 25 on a team that Harden would actually agree to go to. New Orleans with something around Ingram, maybe.

Indiana would be interesting too if they could pull off a 3+ way deal.
Indiana trades Oladipo, Brogdon, Turner, acquires Harden + Gordon
Houston trades Harden + Gordon, acquires picks + prospects from other teams
Other teams trade picks + prospects, acquire Oladipo, Brogdon, Turner
 

lovegtm

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I read in one of these threads that someone thought the longer Houston waited, the better the return would be for them. I was thinking the opposite.

Even if that person is right, I think it favors the Celtics if the Harden process is dragged out. It gives a chance for one of the young players to establish themselves and for Walker to prove he's healthy. And if Simmons really isn't available, I think the C's might actually be able to compete with any of the other offers out there without including Jaylen if one or two of Langford, Nesmith, TL, Grant, etc are showing serious promise.

Without Simmons in the mix, I think the best offer might be picks and promising prospects. Who else would be offering anything close to Brown, never mind Brown +? I guess Denver could do something around Porter or Murray but I'm not sure how well a fit Harden would be with Jokic. Honestly, I think Denver would be better off exploring a trade for Bradley Beal.

The more I look, the less I see Houston getting much of a return. So few teams meet the requirement of competing for a title and having a young established star to trade. If Simmons or Brown were/are on the table for Harden, Houston should pretty much bite right away. They aren't going to find another top 50 player under the age of 25 on a team that Harden would actually agree to go to. New Orleans with something around Ingram, maybe.

Indiana would be interesting too if they could pull off a 3+ way deal.
Indiana trades Oladipo, Brogdon, Turner, acquires Harden + Gordon
Houston trades Harden + Gordon, acquires picks + prospects from other teams
Other teams trade picks + prospects, acquire Oladipo, Brogdon, Turner
I read in one of these threads that someone thought the longer Houston waited, the better the return would be for them. I was thinking the opposite.

Even if that person is right, I think it favors the Celtics if the Harden process is dragged out. It gives a chance for one of the young players to establish themselves and for Walker to prove he's healthy. And if Simmons really isn't available, I think the C's might actually be able to compete with any of the other offers out there without including Jaylen if one or two of Langford, Nesmith, TL, Grant, etc are showing serious promise.

Without Simmons in the mix, I think the best offer might be picks and promising prospects. Who else would be offering anything close to Brown, never mind Brown +? I guess Denver could do something around Porter or Murray but I'm not sure how well a fit Harden would be with Jokic. Honestly, I think Denver would be better off exploring a trade for Bradley Beal.

The more I look, the less I see Houston getting much of a return. So few teams meet the requirement of competing for a title and having a young established star to trade. If Simmons or Brown were/are on the table for Harden, Houston should pretty much bite right away. They aren't going to find another top 50 player under the age of 25 on a team that Harden would actually agree to go to. New Orleans with something around Ingram, maybe.

Indiana would be interesting too if they could pull off a 3+ way deal.
Indiana trades Oladipo, Brogdon, Turner, acquires Harden + Gordon
Houston trades Harden + Gordon, acquires picks + prospects from other teams
Other teams trade picks + prospects, acquire Oladipo, Brogdon, Turner
Good post. Simmons and Brown are probably just too good and too young now to be included for Harden, once you adjust for fatty risk+contract+age+upside.

If Philly doesn’t want to trade Simmons and a Celtics youngster pops and Kemba is healthy-ish, the Celtics can put together a better package than Philly. Lots of ifs...

For the Indy trade: the problem there is Turner is a negative asset leaguewide, and Oladipo is neutral at best. Brogdon + mild negative for Harden doesn’t seem like enough.
 

BigSoxFan

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Good post. Simmons and Brown are probably just too good and too young now to be included for Harden, once you adjust for fatty risk+contract+age+upside.

If Philly doesn’t want to trade Simmons and a Celtics youngster pops and Kemba is healthy-ish, the Celtics can put together a better package than Philly. Lots of ifs...

For the Indy trade: the problem there is Turner is a negative asset leaguewide, and Oladipo is neutral at best. Brogdon + mild negative for Harden doesn’t seem like enough.
Yeah. Brogdon is also 28 so he’s pretty much at his ceiling or close to it. Wouldn’t have much value for Houston unless they can send him elsewhere for picks/young players.
 

nighthob

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Yeah. Brogdon is also 28 so he’s pretty much at his ceiling or close to it. Wouldn’t have much value for Houston unless they can send him elsewhere for picks/young players.
Yeah, unless the Knicks are giving up their 2021 #1 for Oladipo and the Thunder willing to eat Turner’s contract for Brogdon in exchange for Hoston’s own draft picks back it doesn’t make any real sense for them.
 

benhogan

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I read in one of these threads that someone thought the longer Houston waited, the better the return would be for them. I was thinking the opposite.

Even if that person is right, I think it favors the Celtics if the Harden process is dragged out. It gives a chance for one of the young players to establish themselves and for Walker to prove he's healthy. And if Simmons really isn't available, I think the C's might actually be able to compete with any of the other offers out there without including Jaylen if one or two of Langford, Nesmith, TL, Grant, etc are showing serious promise.

Without Simmons in the mix, I think the best offer might be picks and promising prospects. Who else would be offering anything close to Brown, never mind Brown +? I guess Denver could do something around Porter or Murray but I'm not sure how well a fit Harden would be with Jokic. Honestly, I think Denver would be better off exploring a trade for Bradley Beal.

The more I look, the less I see Houston getting much of a return. So few teams meet the requirement of competing for a title and having a young established star to trade. If Simmons or Brown were/are on the table for Harden, Houston should pretty much bite right away. They aren't going to find another top 50 player under the age of 25 on a team that Harden would actually agree to go to. New Orleans with something around Ingram, maybe.

Indiana would be interesting too if they could pull off a 3+ way deal.
Indiana trades Oladipo, Brogdon, Turner, acquires Harden + Gordon
Houston trades Harden + Gordon, acquires picks + prospects from other teams
Other teams trade picks + prospects, acquire Oladipo, Brogdon, Turner
my fear is Morey pulls some svengali crap on his protege and convinces him Tobias Harris/Milton/Thybulle/Maxey + picks makes sense for Harden.
 

nighthob

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Absolutely but trading Wiseman, Minny 2021, and 3-4 future picks absolutely guts the future for a team that just won 3 titles. I’d rather hang onto those assets and re-evaluate once I have a better handle on Klay’s recovery and Wiseman’s development.
I guess there is the hope that a GM would be stupid enough to pay $90+ million for a first round pick and the privilege of having Wiggins undermine their youth movement. But he’s the NBA version of testicular cancer, you don’t want him near your clubhouse.

The Trash Brothers and a minimum salary get you Harden and Gordon, which is a ginormous upgrade and makes the Warriors a contender. The only question from there are the draft picks.
 

Cesar Crespo

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my fear is Morey pulls some svengali crap on his protege and convinces him Tobias Harris/Milton/Thybulle/Maxey + picks makes sense for Harden.
Simmons on a team with Harden and Embiid is really a waste of his talent. Of course, they could then trade Simmons for Bradley Beal and call it a day.

I just don't see a fit where one of the better under 25 talents go to Houston so the above deal may not be that far off depending on the development of Thybulle and Maxey.

I'm thinking the best under 25 player they get back will be a lot closer to Chris Herro than Simmons or Brown.
 

BigSoxFan

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I guess there is the hope that a GM would be stupid enough to pay $90+ million for a first round pick and the privilege of having Wiggins undermine their youth movement. But he’s the NBA version of testicular cancer, you don’t want him near your clubhouse.

The Trash Brothers and a minimum salary get you Harden and Gordon, which is a ginormous upgrade and makes the Warriors a contender. The only question from there are the draft picks.
Yeah, if I am GS and I can trade the Trash Bros, Minny 2021, a buttload of GS picks/swaps, etc., I pull the trigger in a heartbeat. Adding Wiseman to the mix makes it a tougher call, IMO. I am admittedly pretty high on him.
 

ElUno20

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Warriors went to like 80 straight finals. You guys are deuces for at least 10 years. No one is feeling sorry for the dubs
 

Sam Ray Not

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Tough break, but Wiseman RotY at +250 isn’t looking so bad now.
He was about to be ramped up to 30+ MPG either way (per Kerr), but yeah. What sucks is that Chriss is skilled and athletic enough where he could have slid over to the 4 for a few minutes here and there against big teams. He might literally have been the team’s 4th best (or least bad) healthy player — solid passer and shooter, excellent finisher and rebounder, and improving across the board. He had pretty clearly passed Looney in the rotation.

WTF is with all these fucking season-ending injuries? Can’t we just get normal sprains and strains and stuff? Oh wait, we keep getting those, too...

No idea what they do now other than develop Wiseman and tank. Maybe sign Dedmon...?
 
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DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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He was about to be ramped up to 30+ MPG either way (per Kerr), but yeah. What sucks is that Chriss is skilled and athletic enough where he could have slid over to the 4 for a few minutes here and there against big teams. He might literally have been the team’s 4th best (or least bad) healthy player — solid passer and shooter, excellent finisher and rebounder, and improving across the board. He had pretty clearly passed Looney in the rotation.

WTF is with all these fucking season-ending injuries? Can’t we just get normal sprains and strains and stuff? Oh wait, we keep getting those, too...

No idea what they do now other than develop Wiseman and tank. Maybe sign Dedmon...?
This is JTAs music. They brought him back and gave him rotational minutes early so he may get the first shot before they start signing players off the street.
 

Sam Ray Not

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This is JTAs music. They brought him back and gave him rotational minutes early so he may get the first shot before they start signing players off the street.
Might as well throw young Smailagic in the fire and see what they have, too. They’re out of roster spots, so they’re gonna need to see what the deep bench guys can do or make a cut.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Smailagic too.

Look, Chriss has value but having to replace his production isn't likely to have a meaningful impact on the Warriors win totals. The guy was, at best, a league average player even accounting for the improvements he made last season. This isn't to say he doesn't have more upside - you can see it watching him play that he is figuring it out. As such he is likely to be pretty good with more experience but probably not this season.
 

DannyDarwinism

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https://www.bball-index.com/lebron-introduction/

Not sure quite where to put this, but B-Ball Index has a new all-in-one stat, which is handy considering Jacob Goldstein took PIPM offline after he got a job with the Wizards. This incorporates the box score component of PIPM as its prior to Regularized Adjusted Plus/Minus, and borrows from a technique to stabilize data from small sample sizes developed by Bowiac: "What this approach does is determine the volume at which each box score statistic stabilizes (and becomes a good indicator of performance rather than noise"

The On/Off data is luck-adjusted, for an explanation see: https://fansided.com/2018/01/08/nylon-calculus-calculating-luck-adjusted-ratings/

The guys who created it are good follows on Twitter, and the explanation is definitely worth a read. It's nice to have a new tool for the toolkit, even if it's not particularly novel.

Or, if you just want to see the data and get mad that it has some guy to high or low: https://www.bball-index.com/lebron-database/
 

nighthob

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DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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https://www.bball-index.com/lebron-introduction/

Not sure quite where to put this, but B-Ball Index has a new all-in-one stat, which is handy considering Jacob Goldstein took PIPM offline after he got a job with the Wizards. This incorporates the box score component of PIPM as its prior to Regularized Adjusted Plus/Minus, and borrows from a technique to stabilize data from small sample sizes developed by Bowiac: "What this approach does is determine the volume at which each box score statistic stabilizes (and becomes a good indicator of performance rather than noise"

The On/Off data is luck-adjusted, for an explanation see: https://fansided.com/2018/01/08/nylon-calculus-calculating-luck-adjusted-ratings/

The guys who created it are good follows on Twitter, and the explanation is definitely worth a read. It's nice to have a new tool for the toolkit, even if it's not particularly novel.

Or, if you just want to see the data and get mad that it has some guy to high or low: https://www.bball-index.com/lebron-database/
Thank you for this. Good reading for slow holiday work weeks.
 

Pablo's TB Lover

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Swear to god, word for word this is what I was coming here to type. Green and Chris Paul should have an hour long debate over the best way to injure other player's balls.
With Grayson Allen standing nearby: "I'm listening..."
 

nighthob

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And just like that, the Nets massive strength (scoring depth) takes a huge hit down to "pretty good."

It's a long season; I'd be wary about crowning anybody's ass this early.
Especially a team actively carrying the Kyrienavirus.
 

PedroKsBambino

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That may make a Harden trade more likely—Houston doesn’t care about him bowing out this year and Nets’ “play it out” option just got a lot less attractive. Still not sure it’ll happen.
 

nighthob

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Houston doesn't control its first round pick, so unless the Nets can come up with a highish first round pick, that injury knocks them out of the running. Dinwiddie is a pending free agent that can't play, so he has zero resale value for the Rockets.
 

PedroKsBambino

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The pick is irrelevant—it’s all about value. No NBA team is as doctrinal about the form of value as you suggest. Still may end up that LeVert is best asset they can get. Of course, could end up otherwise too.

Dinwiddie has a player option and is coming off an ACL...I think there’s value in being the incumbent there. I think they imagine a fast rebuild—though I would tend to agree with you that they should do a full rebuild instead. But they are the ones making the call.
 

nighthob

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Dinwiddie is going to get more than $12 million in free agency. The right to pay him that has zero value. And if you're unloading Harden for bacon bits, which is what a Nets deal entails, you're not engaging in a fast rebuild, you're accepting a generation of sucking as, barring winning the Powerball levels of luck (i.e. finding a franchise player in the back third of the first round) you probably aren't going to be any good this decade.

They can always unload Harden for bacon bits next summer. There's literally no upside to doing it now. That is unless the deal is Wall and Harden to Brooklyn, Kyrie to a third team for picks (i.e. the Knicks), and then the bacon bits and picks to Houston. Harden/Wood/Wall is a playoff team, and one that can probably make the second round. There's no sense in breaking it up to help the Nets win a title and the Thunder find a second star to add to SGA.
 

radsoxfan

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WTF is with all these fucking season-ending injuries? Can’t we just get normal sprains and strains and stuff? Oh wait, we keep getting those, too...
Maybe there is more to the story but in general a broken fibula isn't a season ender in the 1st week of the season. Even a shortened season. Is it a stress fracture? Or traumatic?

If you gave me zero other information other than "broken fibula" I'd probably say 6-8 weeks.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Maybe there is more to the story but in general a broken fibula isn't a season ender in the 1st week of the season. Even a shortened season. Is it a stress fracture? Or traumatic?

If you gave me zero other information other than "broken fibula" I'd probably say 6-8 weeks.
Apparently Shams may have jumped the gun on the “season ending” part. The latest per NBA.com:

Marquese Chriss suffered a right syndesmosis ankle injury with a fibular fracture during the team’s practice yesterday at the Bulls’ practice facility in Chicago. Chriss underwent imaging and an orthopedic consult last night to confirm the nature of the injury. He will undergo surgery in the coming days and a timeline for his return will be established at that point.
 

cheech13

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My wife suffered a similar injury in a running accident last January and has only recently regained full mobility of the ankle and leg. A syndesmosis ankle injury can be really bad depending on the damage to the ligaments.
 

radsoxfan

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Apparently Shams may have jumped the gun on the “season ending” part. The latest per NBA.com:

Marquese Chriss suffered a right syndesmosis ankle injury with a fibular fracture during the team’s practice yesterday at the Bulls’ practice facility in Chicago. Chriss underwent imaging and an orthopedic consult last night to confirm the nature of the injury. He will undergo surgery in the coming days and a timeline for his return will be established at that point.
Now I'm leaning more towards season ending. The fibular fracture is less problematic than the syndesmotic injury. Basically like the worst "high ankle sprain" you can have, plus the fracture.

Probably something like this.

 

Sam Ray Not

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Now I'm leaning more towards season ending. The fibular fracture is less problematic than the syndesmotic injury. Basically like the worst "high ankle sprain" you can have, plus the fracture.

Probably something like this.

Thanks for the (depressing) info, RSF. You’re an amazing resource on this stuff.
 

radsoxfan

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Thanks for the (depressing) info, RSF. You’re an amazing resource on this stuff.
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news. Not 100% assured season ending but definitely makes much more sense now, I wouldn't say 6-8 weeks as a baseline guess for a return. Probably going to be a few months before anything close to normal weight bearing, then will need some rehab after that.

There was some disconnect with the initial Shams tweet, but unfortunately it wasn't with the timeline as much as it was with the nature of the injury.
 

The Raccoon

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World B. Flat out for todays game against the 76ers for personal reasons.
Only problem - according to The Athletic, the Nets or at least Nash don't know where he is and what he is doing.
Could be a minor thing, but you never know with Uncle Drew...
 

PedroKsBambino

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I don’t wish the guy harm in life, but I am neither surprised nor disappointed he can’t manage to take the court.
 

Red Averages

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Didn’t he try to get the players to boycott the bubble for social issues? Could be related to yesterday’s events.