NBA Offseason--and now INTO the season.

NomarsFool

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Gobert signed an extension with Utah over the weekend, in case anyone missed it (I did).

Using the TPE for Gobert always seemed like a pretty low probability move, but now that is completely off the table (realistically).
 

Swedgin

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I couldn't disagree more with this part. Milwaukee would have offered the owner's firstborn and two randomly selected front office kidneys in order to close any GFIN deal that would convince Giannis to sign on the dotted line. And he did. The situations couldn't be more different. Danny is sitting on two under 25, top-30ish players.
I agree Milwaukee and Boston are not comparable, but what does that matter to Houston. Houston wants the best possible return it can get. JRue, Davis, PG and even the Westbrook deals all included troves of picks along with the talent. The talks with Miami reportedly did not progress, because Miami's priors deals substantially limit how much draft pick compensation can be included.

If Danny is not willing to include several picks (and I agree he should not), then there are several teams that can beat a Jaylen centric offer:

Philly: Simons and a pick or two
Nets: Levert etc and ALL the picks
Denver: MPJ and most of the picks.

Jaylen is my favorite Celtic and I hope he stays put. But I accept his limitations. He is not a playmaker. He's an awesome #2 guy. He is not well suited to be the fulcrum of an offense. Where does a Jaylen and Wall led team fit in the West's pecking order?

If I am Houston the picks are the key (since theirs are spoken 2024-2026). If Houston is going to be rebuild through the draft they need to suck they next two years or get another teams picks for those out years.
 

djbayko

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He had it before the bubble, so actually probably not Harden.
That was unconfirmed soeculation, correct? It’s definitely possible. But there was video of him training outside the bubble during that time period so it’s also possible that it was just a diva move to spend as little time as possible in the bubble. Given what we’ve recently learned about Harden’s control over the team, it’s even more likely.
 

Jimbodandy

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I agree Milwaukee and Boston are not comparable, but what does that matter to Houston. Houston wants the best possible return it can get. JRue, Davis, PG and even the Westbrook deals all included troves of picks along with the talent. The talks with Miami reportedly did not progress, because Miami's priors deals substantially limit how much draft pick compensation can be included.

If Danny is not willing to include several picks (and I agree he should not), then there are several teams that can beat a Jaylen centric offer:

Philly: Simons and a pick or two
Nets: Levert etc and ALL the picks
Denver: MPJ and most of the picks.

Jaylen is my favorite Celtic and I hope he stays put. But I accept his limitations. He is not a playmaker. He's an awesome #2 guy. He is not well suited to be the fulcrum of an offense. Where does a Jaylen and Wall led team fit in the West's pecking order?

If I am Houston the picks are the key (since theirs are spoken 2024-2026). If Houston is going to be rebuild through the draft they need to suck they next two years or get another teams picks for those out years.
I agree with everything in this post.

If I'm Houston, I'd rather settle on whatever deal gives me a crapton of picks and/or high ceiling young guys. While some here think that Simmons plus a pick or two is the best deal on the table, that depends on whether I think that I can find a landing spot for Simmons that returns picks. If not, then the Brooklyn pu pu platter may be the best thing going. Picks plus multiple guys that you can probably turn into picks. Boston isn't a good match.
 

the moops

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I agree Milwaukee and Boston are not comparable, but what does that matter to Houston. Houston wants the best possible return it can get. JRue, Davis, PG and even the Westbrook deals all included troves of picks along with the talent.
The Jrue deal didn't involve any real talent going back to NO. Bledsoe and Hill are fine players, but they were basically just the needed salary. So while HOU may want a huge haul of picks, if any of the offers include Jaylen Brown, or Ben Simmons, or Paskal Siakam, tI doubt they are getting a haul of picks on top of those players.
 

Cesar Crespo

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The Jrue deal didn't involve any real talent going back to NO. Bledsoe and Hill are fine players, but they were basically just the needed salary. So while HOU may want a huge haul of picks, if any of the offers include Jaylen Brown, or Ben Simmons, or Paskal Siakam, tI doubt they are getting a haul of picks on top of those players.
NO didn't get that big a haul of picks either. 2 1st round picks and 2 swaps. Barring some bad injury luck for the Bucks, those are 2 late 1st round picks and 2 swaps that never get used.
 

Euclis20

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NO didn't get that big a haul of picks either. 2 1st round picks and 2 swaps. Barring some bad injury luck for the Bucks, those are 2 late 1st round picks and 2 swaps that never get used.
We know that now, but at the time they had to balance giving away those picks against the very real possibility that Giannis would leave, changing those picks from mid-late 20s to early to mid-level lottery picks. Those picks were substantially more valuable when the trade was made than they are right now.
 

Euclis20

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The Ringer ranked the NBA best young (under 25) cores, and the Celtics were #1:


They based their rankings on 538's player projections over the last 5 years. The whole article is a fun read (if you like seeing the Celtics in the top spot), but in the section on the Mavs they posted the list of the projected best players in the league over the next 5 seasons. The idea was to show that Luka is #1 amongst all players (not just those under 25), but I found it interesting that 31 year old James Harden is #2 on their list of the best players over the next 5 years. I have a pretty low opinion of 538's player rankings (and team rankings) generally, but Harden does seem to have the body and style of a player who should remain elite for at least the next handful of seasons.

FWIW the next 3 guys on the list are Jokic (25), Tatum (22) and Giannis (26).
 

DannyDarwinism

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The Ringer ranked the NBA best young (under 25) cores, and the Celtics were #1:


They based their rankings on 538's player projections over the last 5 years. The whole article is a fun read (if you like seeing the Celtics in the top spot), but in the section on the Mavs they posted the list of the projected best players in the league over the next 5 seasons. The idea was to show that Luka is #1 amongst all players (not just those under 25), but I found it interesting that 31 year old James Harden is #2 on their list of the best players over the next 5 years. I have a pretty low opinion of 538's player rankings (and team rankings) generally, but Harden does seem to have the body and style of a player who should remain elite for at least the next handful of seasons.

FWIW the next 3 guys on the list are Jokic (25), Tatum (22) and Giannis (26).
Harden at 31 is 2 years older than Kawhi and 4 years older than AD. I agree with your point about body type and style aging relatively gracefully, but he’s not exactly taking care of himself. He’s going to be such a liability on defense at 34 that it’s hard for me to envision him being more valuable than those guys.

Side note- Houston’s best player under 25 is an undrafted, 5’9, 23 year old shooting guard who just tore his achilles. That’s wild.

Side note #2- Pretty surprising that 538s projections have Lonzo being more valuable than Zion or Ingram over the next 5 years.
 
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DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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The new Matt Barnes/Stephen Jackson All The Smoke podcast with Rondo is a must listen imo. He will be a coach in the league very soon after he retires if he so chooses. I will spoiler a small nugget and share that he went to Atlanta for family reasons.
 

Swedgin

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NO didn't get that big a haul of picks either. 2 1st round picks and 2 swaps. Barring some bad injury luck for the Bucks, those are 2 late 1st round picks and 2 swaps that never get used.
Four years in a row of controlling another's teams draft is pretty friggin big. And here is the key detail: it is the 2024, 2025, 2026 and 2027 drafts. No one, including the Bucks front office, has any idea whatsoever as to what kind of team Milwaukee is going to have 5 seasons from now.
 

bellowthecat

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DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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This was an enjoyable listen, thanks for the suggestion. Link here:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ASDmhdg3Sy0
Thank you for the link. What is fascinating about this is how these three are students of the game and what they choose to focus on. Furthermore, its all very candid which I love - Stan Van Gundy gets some small shade in this one - but also something you would expect from Barnes, Jackson and Rondo.
 

lovegtm

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Four years in a row of controlling another's teams draft is pretty friggin big. And here is the key detail: it is the 2024, 2025, 2026 and 2027 drafts. No one, including the Bucks front office, has any idea whatsoever as to what kind of team Milwaukee is going to have 5 seasons from now.
To add onto that: the real killer of these "take all our future drafts" deals is that they make it really hard to add pieces via trade. That in turn makes your guy more of a flight risk as the years go on, which then increases the value of the picks. It's a positive feedback loop.
 

Sox Puppet

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I really hope Danny doesn't fall for the bait. Harden would set back everything the Celtics have been building for the last 3-4 years.
 

bankshot1

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Pass-he is just about my least favorite NBA super-duper star.

While surely a unique talent, he seems to define the antithesis of what Celtics basketball is, or what I've learned to believe it is over the past 60 years.
 

lostjumper

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Portland has nothing to offer. Seems like Harden is basically telling Houston that he’ll go to basically any team that doesn’t suck.

I don’t see this getting resolved any time soon.
Someone on reddit said Portland has the most strip clubs per capita of any major US city. That seems to make it an ideal destination for Harden. I think the basketball product in town is a distant second.
 

Euclis20

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Someone on reddit said Portland has the most strip clubs per capita of any major US city. That seems to make it an ideal destination for Harden. I think the basketball product in town is a distant second.
Fact check: True

.

Portland is home to the most strip clubs per capita in the US. According to research by Priceonomics, the city boasts 54 and has more than twice as many strip clubs as it has public restrooms. That is largely because Oregon’s constitution protects “obscenity” under the first amendment. Moreover, zoning laws state that businesses cannot be denied locations based on their sexual content or nature.
 

lovegtm

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Jaylen's growth as a ball-handler is making him pretty much untradeable for Harden now. (Yes, Harden is in a different offensive stratosphere, but adjusted for age/contract/improvement potential/not being a fat malcontent).
 

Imbricus

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For the Celtics, trading for Harden would be a disaster on several different levels. Hoping, praying, that Danny isn't seriously kicking the tires on this one.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I know it isn't very likely, but if Harden's market craters, it's possible the C's could acquire him without Brown or Tatum.

One can dream.
 

lovegtm

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I know it isn't very likely, but if Harden's market craters, it's possible the C's could acquire him without Brown or Tatum.

One can dream.
Seems like too much of a dream, but I guess I can squint and imagine some Celtics young guy going crazy, Kemba coming back and looking healthy, and then doing a deal based around that and lots of picks/swaps 4-7 years out?

Harden’s market is definitely...softening, but this seems too far.
 

Koufax

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I'm no analyst, but count me among those who love rooting for Jaylen Brown and hate watching James Harden. I'd much rather root against him than for him, and a pretty pumped about the display that Jaylen put on against the Bucks. Hard pass for me.
 

Ale Xander

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New Orleans is confusing a Fleur de lys with a pelican. Need a real pelican on that uni
 

Ale Xander

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I'm no analyst, but count me among those who love rooting for Jaylen Brown and hate watching James Harden. I'd much rather root against him than for him, and a pretty pumped about the display that Jaylen put on against the Bucks. Hard pass for me.
This exactly
 

lovegtm

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Brooklyn looking this good early probably takes them out of the running for Harden. Not sure why they'd want to break up that strong bench + send out picks.
 

128

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Brooklyn looking this good early probably takes them out of the running for Harden. Not sure why they'd want to break up that strong bench + send out picks.
Agreed. If they stay healthy--no given with Kyrie and Durant--they have enough elite talent and depth to win an NBA title.
 

benhogan

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3rd Quarter Durant being guarded by Tristen Thompson looked like the GOAT yesterday. The Brad Machine hit a snafu with that rotation yesterday. Brown/Tatum need to take turns guarding him

Houston should be closely watching Wiseman over the next month.
Wiggins + Wiseman + Minn 2021 + 3 GSW picks/swap + Oubre FOR Harden + Gordon works.
Houston gets a future + unloads Gordon's longish contract (for a shorter Oubre deal)
G$W back in contention for the next 3 seasons + unload Wiggins
 

Jimbodandy

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3rd Quarter Durant being guarded by Tristen Thompson looked like the GOAT yesterday. The Brad Machine hit a snafu with that rotation yesterday. Brown/Tatum need to take turns guarding him

Houston should be closely watching Wiseman over the next month.
Wiggins + Wiseman + Minn 2021 + 3 GSW picks/swap + Oubre FOR Harden + Gordon works.
Houston gets a future + unloads Gordon's longish contract (for a shorter Oubre deal)
G$W back in contention for the next 3 seasons + unload Wiggins
Somewhere SRN woke suddenly from a sound sleep and doesn't know why.
 

BigSoxFan

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3rd Quarter Durant being guarded by Tristen Thompson looked like the GOAT yesterday. The Brad Machine hit a snafu with that rotation yesterday. Brown/Tatum need to take turns guarding him

Houston should be closely watching Wiseman over the next month.
Wiggins + Wiseman + Minn 2021 + 3 GSW picks/swap + Oubre FOR Harden + Gordon works.
Houston gets a future + unloads Gordon's longish contract (for a shorter Oubre deal)
G$W back in contention for the next 3 seasons + unload Wiggins
Wiseman may be changing the Warriors’ calculus. He has looked very impressive out there. Not sure I pull the trigger on that if I’m GS anymore, especially given the potential value of the Minn pick.

I think Houston is going to have to settle a lot more than they expect for Harden. Teams like Boston, GS, Philly, etc. don’t really need to do anything and are probably holding the line on low ball offers.
 

benhogan

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Wiseman may be changing the Warriors’ calculus. He has looked very impressive out there. Not sure I pull the trigger on that if I’m GS anymore, especially given the potential value of the Minn pick.

I think Houston is going to have to settle a lot more than they expect for Harden. Teams like Boston, GS, Philly, etc. don’t really need to do anything and are probably holding the line on low ball offers.
they are wasting prime Steph/Dray years with the Trash Bros...
 

the moops

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3rd Quarter Durant being guarded by Tristen Thompson looked like the GOAT yesterday. The Brad Machine hit a snafu with that rotation yesterday. Brown/Tatum need to take turns guarding him
It's also the second game of the season and they need to figure out what they have in Thompson. Obviously and apparently he can't guard Durant, not that many can, but I doubt we see that experiment again
 

BigSoxFan

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they are wasting prime Steph/Dray years with the Trash Bros...
Think it depends on Klay’s prognosis. If he can come back, you’ve got Steph, Klay, Dray, Wiseman and the Minny lotto pick as your core. And they may have their own lotto pick as well. That’s pretty solid. Not sure I would mortgage the future if I were them for Harden with Klay already out.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Think it depends on Klay’s prognosis. If he can come back, you’ve got Steph, Klay, Dray, Wiseman and the Minny lotto pick as your core. And they may have their own lotto pick as well. That’s pretty solid. Not sure I would mortgage the future if I were them for Harden with Klay already out.
Yeah, that’s where I am. This season was basically a wash when Klay went down, and was kind of an awkward, fanless, pandemic season to begin with. I’m not parting with a potential 10-15 year franchise player — at $10M a year for the next four seasons — for one full season of bratty Harden with the Big 3. I also think a #5-10 and a #10-20 pick (guesstimating) in next year’s putatively stacked draft are sufficiently valuable where they might be able to get someone to take Wiggins off their hands for a disgruntled vet who is significantly better than Wiggins. If not, they just eat the last two years of his contract, push him down to 7-8 in the rotation where his shortcomings are less problematic, and add more depth and talent with the picks.

In terms of age discrepancy, I think the hope is that Wiseman would become to Steph-Klay-Dray what Kawhi was to Parker-Manu-Duncan.
 

benhogan

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Think it depends on Klay’s prognosis. If he can come back, you’ve got Steph, Klay, Dray, Wiseman and the Minny lotto pick as your core. And they may have their own lotto pick as well. That’s pretty solid. Not sure I would mortgage the future if I were them for Harden with Klay already out.
even better when Klay comes back...Steph, Klay, Harden, Dray would be fun to watch...

Wiseman will take a few seasons to develop along with any 1 and done guys they draft in 2021 - timelines don't match up