NBA 20/21 season thread

[nighthob]

Houston’s young talent is Christian Wood & Danuel House. Aside from that they’re seriously graying with no avenue to add anything but roleplayers. Simmons and roleplayers puts you on that 40-45 win treadmill as they will by default lack a closer. Because they’re #1 can’t shoot a basketball.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

MPJ may or may not be overrated but I would be wary of a back injury history for a player who is just starting to get real NBA minutes - especially one who tends to bang around guys his size or larger.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I think two places I'd see differently.

First, to win a title you need 3-4 specific profiles/talent levels and you don't need to get them in any order. You do need to get them. So getting a great number two, if you have nothing, is a big step to getting a 1 because it makes your team a lot more appealing.

Second people, both fans and GMs, get enamored with the possible upside of players/picks without being quite as conscious of the probabilities involved. The MPJ-Simmons comparison is a good example of this to me. The odds that MPJ is ever as good a player as Simmons is now are small---10%? 25%? MPJ isn't mediocre defensive player, he's so awful he was benched for periods because of it. There is only one thing on a basketball court MPJ is even close to doing as well as Simmons, which is of course outside shooting. That matters, but the rest matters more in aggregate and MPJ is not even close to Simmons defensively, passing, ball handling, rebounding, penetration. I like his upside but it just is not likely he will make up all the ground across several of those. Could he? Sure. But viewed practically, you're getting a much inferior player today and a guy who likely is not as good ever just because yo uhave a small---5%?---chance that he is not only better than Simmons but also a true number 1. You can rightly criticize Simmons' outside shot and the impacts, but Porter's defense is much worse and much more impactful---it's not really debateable. It may be more likely to get better, but it's a lot of projection again

I know you need to take chances to get from where Houston is to a title team but that to me is a bad gamble. MPJ was 89th in RPM last year....among power forwards. You obviously aren't doing a deal for him based primarily on what he is right now, but I think you're wildly underestimating how far away he is from what Simmons already is. There's a case for MPJ over Herro based on upside, but the gap with Simmons today is just too large, imo.

I'm not that worried about the defense, it wasn't good, but not Trae Young by any stretch, rookies don't defend well as a rule, even future superstars. Abd

As to the bolded.... that's decidedly untrue. MPJ is a much better scorer than Simmons, and a much better FT shooter. He's also a better rebounder. He's nowhere near the passer and never will be, same on defense, but also he doesn't turn it over anywhere near as much on the same usage.

I'm going to add two comps below, one is MPJ vs Simmons as age 21 rookies:


the other is MPJ vs Simmons last year:

There is a good argument that MPJ is already a better offensive player than Simmons. Now sure Simmons is elite defensively, and MPJ is not good (though more mediocre for a rookie than outright bad for a rookie), but I want my stars to dominate on offense, I can find defense, I can't find 50/40/90 guys who rebound well and don't turn it over much on high usage, and that is the kind of player MPJ's rookie year suggests he has a real chance to be.


EDIT- to be clear, Simmons is a better player, nobody disputes that, BUT.... MPJ is good enough now, and has the projectability of a higher ceiling that if you get him and other significant pieces, it's a better deal than Simmons.
In the end I doubt it matters, I don't think DEN is making that deal for several reasons.

 

[bigq]

A team like Houston shouldn't worry about if Simmons is a good enough player to be the best guy on a title team. They're in a full rebuild so they just need to add pieces and Simmons seems like the best realistic piece they can potentially acquire.

I fully agree and he’s probably the best single player that they can get in return for Harden.

It’s an imperfect analogy but I feel like if the team I was rooting for had Simmons as its best player it would be somewhat like I felt with the IT led Celtics. Super fun to watch and root for but you just kind of know that the limitations of the team leader are making it difficult to be a title contender.

But you and others are probably right. Surrounding Simmons with the right cast would make for a scary team. Put him on last year’s Heat squad and he would be the team’s best player and they probably would have beat the Lakers in the finals but I’m not sure how that could have possibly worked from a salary perspective.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I fully agree and he’s probably the best single player that they can get in return for Harden.

It’s an imperfect analogy but I feel like if the team I was rooting for had Simmons as its best player it would be somewhat like I felt with the IT led Celtics. Super fun to watch and root for but you just kind of know that the limitations of the team leader are making it difficult to be a title contender.

But you and others are probably right. Surrounding Simmons with the right cast would make for a scary team. Put him on last year’s Heat squad and he would be the team’s best player and they probably would have beat the Lakers in the finals but I’m not sure how that could have possibly worked from a salary perspective.

Yup. Ultimately, I think Houston gets the best asset they can (Simmons) and then re-evaluates after a year or so. Simmons will still have considerable value in 2021. If they want to do the full blow up, you could certainly do nighthob's suggestion of looking to OKC for 3-4 of their most valuable chips (some of which might be your own pick...d'oh) and send Simmons there.

 

[ManicCompression]

The thing about Ben Simmons is that he's shown absolutely no growth during his first three years in the league, which are the three years you would expect a player to show the most improvement. Look at his stats - they've barely budged since his rookie year: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/simmobe01.html

In a weird way, despite all of his physical gifts, he doesn't have any upside. There aren't flashes for him to be anything more than this. And though the thing with Embiid is a bad fit, I'm not sure if he's guaranteed to be the same player without a superior defender and offensive player next to him. If he were going to a team like Phoenix or the Timberwolves, I could see him being an incredible secondary piece to Booker or Towns, but he has way too many warts to be a team's best player.

 

[Cellar-Door]

The thing about Ben Simmons is that he's shown absolutely no growth during his first three years in the league, which are the three years you would expect a player to show the most improvement. Look at his stats - they've barely budged since his rookie year: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/simmobe01.html

In a weird way, despite all of his physical gifts, he doesn't have any upside. There aren't flashes for him to be anything more than this. And though the thing with Embiid is a bad fit, I'm not sure if he's guaranteed to be the same player without a superior defender and offensive player next to him. If he were going to a team like Phoenix or the Timberwolves, I could see him being an incredible secondary piece to Booker or Towns, but he has way too many warts to be a team's best player.

Yeah, this is part of it too, Simmons has maybe improved in some areas, but not enough in his weaknesses, and the rest is general fluctuations up and down probably (outside defense).
It's one reason I really don't get the MPJ hate on here, we have closely watched what a top scorer growing looks like, people need to go look at Tatum's first 2 years, then go look at MPJ's rookie year. Tatum was younger of course, but the league adjustment matters as you get 2, 3 years in the league, especially on defense.

 

[nighthob]

The thing about Ben Simmons is that he's shown absolutely no growth during his first three years in the league, which are the three years you would expect a player to show the most improvement. Look at his stats - they've barely budged since his rookie year: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/simmobe01.html

In a weird way, despite all of his physical gifts, he doesn't have any upside. There aren't flashes for him to be anything more than this. And though the thing with Embiid is a bad fit, I'm not sure if he's guaranteed to be the same player without a superior defender and offensive player next to him. If he were going to a team like Phoenix or the Timberwolves, I could see him being an incredible secondary piece to Booker or Towns, but he has way too many warts to be a team's best player.

I pretty much agree with this, Simmons is coming into his fifth season and he's still essentially the same player. From Houston's standpoint it's an OK fallback because you can probably play over .500 ball with him and eke out playoff spots. But there's a time limit on that as E-Go is on the wrong side of 30 (not to mention injury prone) and PJ Tucker just a few years from collecting social security. Christian Wood is about the only real young talent on the roster, and he's really best in an other guy on the floor role, and will probably be asked to do more than that here.

So to me it still makes more sense as a three way deal with a franchise that's desperate (*cough* the Knickleheads *cough*) or one that has the wherewithal to carefully build around Simmons (OKC or New Orleans). (As an aside I think that in the modern NBA he should really be a point center surrounded by shooters/scorers with switchable guys 1-5).

 

[Jakarta]

I’m more bullish on Simmons than a lot here and feel like he would be Giannis-lite in the right situation. An offense based on his ability to get downhill, while surrounded by shooters would look a lot like the current Bucks. Simmons is obviously a less willing shooter than Giannis, but his vision and playmaking would seem to make up for this (not to mention a Giannis 3 attempt is often a win for the defense). They are also similar defensive players, and a system can and should be built around their impact on that end of the floor as well.
If Simmons and Giannis were to switch places, I’m not convinced people wouldn’t think a lot higher about Ben and a lot lower about Giannis. The system and environment these 2 are currently in are at polar opposites for their skill sets.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

I'm not that worried about the defense, it wasn't good, but not Trae Young by any stretch, rookies don't defend well as a rule, even future superstars. Abd

As to the bolded.... that's decidedly untrue. MPJ is a much better scorer than Simmons, and a much better FT shooter. He's also a better rebounder. He's nowhere near the passer and never will be, same on defense, but also he doesn't turn it over anywhere near as much on the same usage.

I'm going to add two comps below, one is MPJ vs Simmons as age 21 rookies:
View attachment 37169

the other is MPJ vs Simmons last year:
View attachment 37170
There is a good argument that MPJ is already a better offensive player than Simmons. Now sure Simmons is elite defensively, and MPJ is not good (though more mediocre for a rookie than outright bad for a rookie), but I want my stars to dominate on offense, I can find defense, I can't find 50/40/90 guys who rebound well and don't turn it over much on high usage, and that is the kind of player MPJ's rookie year suggests he has a real chance to be.


EDIT- to be clear, Simmons is a better player, nobody disputes that, BUT.... MPJ is good enough now, and has the projectability of a higher ceiling that if you get him and other significant pieces, it's a better deal than Simmons.
In the end I doubt it matters, I don't think DEN is making that deal for several reasons.

I mean, you ignore the numbers on defense (where MPJ is not historically awful like Trae Young...but is hideously awful...88th among power forwards by rpm and worse by scouting). If you’re not worried about it you aren’t paying attention as everyone else is. Including his own team who sat him because of it.

Using per-100 possession stats to compare a high usage guy to a guy who played 16 minutes a game, against a wide range of situations (eg garbage time) is at best a major reach and only makes the point that you’re making a massive projection without recognizing it. He’s got to play twice as many minutes, against better competition, and gain statistically while doing it for your statement to be true. It could happen, but it’s certainly not true now and not a good bet to ever happen. He’s a better shooter, but there’s no numbers to support the rest. And he gives up a ton passing and defending....he’d need to be close to Steph Curry shooting to make up the gap.

I agree MPJ has more upside. But he’s way behind to start and so all that does is make the risk even greater

You allude to Tatum—as a rookie he played 30 minutes a game with a positive RPM and a strong defensive rating. If your point is 1) their coaches saw MPJ as much less useful 2) Tatum was a lot better overall and massively better defensively and 3) defense in fact can be played by rookies (so your prior statement that rookies are bad is not only wrong, but totally misleading here) then the numbers support you. Otherwise I’d suggest you rethink that comparison and check the data before posting again.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

The thing about Ben Simmons is that he's shown absolutely no growth during his first three years in the league, which are the three years you would expect a player to show the most improvement. Look at his stats - they've barely budged since his rookie year: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/simmobe01.html

In a weird way, despite all of his physical gifts, he doesn't have any upside. There aren't flashes for him to be anything more than this. And though the thing with Embiid is a bad fit, I'm not sure if he's guaranteed to be the same player without a superior defender and offensive player next to him. If he were going to a team like Phoenix or the Timberwolves, I could see him being an incredible secondary piece to Booker or Towns, but he has way too many warts to be a team's best player.

I agree—it’s odd to be his age with skills and no real injury concerns and feel like he’s maxed. But I agree he is, other than the possibility a different system makes him look better

 

[jon abbey]

I’m more bearish on Simmons than a lot here and feel like he would be Giannis-lite in the right situation. An offense based on his ability to get downhill, while surrounded by shooters would look a lot like the current Bucks. Simmons is obviously a less willing shooter than Giannis, but his vision and playmaking would seem to make up for this (not to mention a Giannis 3 attempt is often a win for the defense). They are also similar defensive players, and a system can and should be built around their impact on that end of the floor as well.
If Simmons and Giannis were to switch places, I’m not convinced people wouldn’t think a lot higher about Ben and a lot lower about Giannis. The system and environment these 2 are currently in are at polar opposites for their skill sets.

You mean ‘bullish’, not ‘bearish’. Changes the whole post.

 

[Jakarta]

You mean ‘bullish’, not ‘bearish’. Changes the whole post.

Correct. Initially wrote bearish about Giannis. Changed to Simmons to better link it to the topic being discussed, and forgot to change a very key word in the sentence.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

Correct. Initially wrote bearish about Giannis. Changed to Simmons to better link it to the topic being discussed, and forgot to change a very key word in the sentence.

Chicago sports teams aside, I totally agree with the substance of your post. Would love to see Simmons in a Draymond role alongside Steph and Klay, for example.

 

[128]

View: https://twitter.com/Farbod_E/status/1340673315640369153

 

[128]

View: https://twitter.com/ShamsCharania/status/1340673973667958786

 

[PedroKsBambino]

View: https://twitter.com/ShamsCharania/status/1340673973667958786

Wow is that a big contract for his game.

 

[tmracht]

That seems insane for someone like Gobert.

 

[HowBoutDemSox]

Wonder how Mitchell feels about that deal.

 

[BigSoxFan]

View: https://twitter.com/ShamsCharania/status/1340673973667958786

That is an objectively awful contract but I guess Jazz figured it’s better to have him overpaid than not at all.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Gobert's extension extension apparently falls between the 35% supermax and the regular 30% extension. https://www.sltrib.com/sports/jazz/2020/12/20/rudy-gobert-signs-year/

That is an objectively awful contract but I guess Jazz figured it’s better to have him overpaid than not at all.

Agree. Don't see what options the Jazz - or most teams - have in this situation. They're not going to get anywhere equal value in a trade and I guess for a lot of NBA owners, being a top 4 team and getting into the playoffs without having a chance at the title is better than being a bottom 4 team and trying to figure out how to obtain talent.

 

[BaseballJones]

View: https://twitter.com/Farbod_E/status/1340673315640369153

No idea how the Nets would do this without parting ways with either KD or Kyrie, but man, a KD/Kyrie/Harden trio would either be unbelievably good or highly combustible. Maybe both. Entertaining, for sure.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

No idea how the Nets would do this without parting ways with either KD or Kyrie, but man, a KD/Kyrie/Harden trio would either be unbelievably good or highly combustible. Maybe both. Entertaining, for sure.

Talent wise, no idea. Financially, it wouldn't be that hard. Caris Lavert, Jordan and one of Dinwiddie/Prince would get it done. They'd be sacrificing a little depth but would still be rather deep.

Allen/Durant/Harris/Harden/Irving would be one hell of a lineup... The'd still have Shamet and one of Prince/Dinwiddie coming off their bench too. They'd might need another big but that's not hard to find.

 

[TripleOT]

No idea how the Nets would do this without parting ways with either KD or Kyrie, but man, a KD/Kyrie/Harden trio would either be unbelievably good or highly combustible. Maybe both. Entertaining, for sure.

Lavert, Dinwiddie, Allen for Harden (with picks and minor salaries to make the numbers work)

 

[BaseballJones]

Holy crap. What would be crazy is if in the aftermath of the crazy Celtics-Nets trade, the Celtics got what they wanted - a young, dynamic, elite core for years and years - while the Nets ended up with a super team that surpassed that same Celtics squad.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Holy crap. What would be crazy is if in the aftermath of the crazy Celtics-Nets trade, the Celtics got what they wanted - a young, dynamic, elite core for years and years - while the Nets ended up with a super team that surpassed that same Celtics squad.

And they have DeAndre Jordan no less.

In case anyone didn't know or forgot: the original deal was rumored to be Doc Rivers and KG to the Clippers for DeAndre Jordan. The league stepped in. Sometimes the best trades are the trades that don't happen. See Winslow.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

The Nets fit--really in both directions--still seems weird to me.

If I were guessing this is a leak to flush out the best Ben Simmons offer.

I do think Miami will go all-in, but I just don't know that they have enough (with Bam and Butler presumably off the table)

 

[Sam Ray Not]

Hmmm ... how sure are we Butler is off the table? He’s a Houston guy; and with Gordon, Tucker, Wood et al. in place, the Rockets likely see themselves in win-now mode. From Miami’s perspective the PR hit would be rough after Butler’s heroics in last year’s playoffs, but it’s probably a marginal upgrade on the court; and marginal upgrades can be huge when you were two games from a title. Sell high?

 

[128]

View: https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1340776951687114759

 

[nighthob]

Lavert, Dinwiddie, Allen for Harden (with picks and minor salaries to make the numbers work)

Are the Knicks offering their draft from 21-23 for LaVert? Because, again, they can get more than bacon bits for Harden.

 

[Conigliaro's Potential]

View: https://twitter.com/Farbod_E/status/1340673315640369153

Who is this guy? (No blue check mark.)

 

[DJnVa]

Who is this guy? (No blue check mark.)

NBA credentialed writer covering the
@laclippers
for
@SInow
Contributor for:
@ESPN @Forbes @SportsDailyBlog

 

[Conigliaro's Potential]

Thanks

 

[DeadlySplitter]

if the Heat get Harden, fuck Pat Riley once again with a rusty spoon

 

[BigSoxFan]

if the Heat get Harden, fuck Pat Riley once again with a rusty spoon

My Herro angst would skyrocket even more if he facilitates a Harden-to-Miami deal

 

[Tony C]

View: https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1340776951687114759

That sure seems like a lot of money for a very mediocre player.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Hmmm ... how sure are we Butler is off the table? He’s a Houston guy; and with Gordon, Tucker, Wood et al. in place, the Rockets likely see themselves in win-now mode. From Miami’s perspective the PR hit would be rough after Butler’s heroics in last year’s playoffs, but it’s probably a marginal upgrade on the court; and marginal upgrades can be huge when you were two games from a title. Sell high?

I just don’t see it—really either way.

I think Houston knows it’s a rebuild.

Miami I’d guess doesn’t see the roster as better after butler for harden because they’d be too small. But possible they’d try it and bet on Bam.

 

[Light-Tower-Power]

Harden on the Nets, Heat, or even Philly would make the Celtics' chances at winning an ECF really difficult over the next couple of seasons. Hopefully it doesn't happen, but there is a lot of smoke out there. As much as I love the Jays I'm concerned that too many team in the East are improving at a faster rate than the Celtics are regardless of what happens with Harden.

 

[Devizier]

That sure seems like a lot of money for a very mediocre player.

Makes him tradeable.

 

[Cellar-Door]

That sure seems like a lot of money for a very mediocre player.

I think it's reasonable. They have $95M on the books just from LeBron/AD/KCP and Deng for next year. They don't have picks, so they are REALLY limited in how they can add talent. They couldn't take a chance the Kuzma has a good year this year and gets a tough offer sheet to match.

Also having him on a longer deal at decent money makes it easier to use him in a trade.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

He’s more tradeable now and viable to keep Kuzma now. More interesting to me he thinks that’s a good deal for him...I think he’s right but many guys with his profile think there’s more in FA

 

[nighthob]

Makes him tradeable.

Next year, anyway.

 

[chilidawg]

Think there's anything to this?

View: https://twitter.com/johngranato/status/1340693638196686850

 

[Buster Olney the Lonely]

I don't believe anyone with a nose like Pinocchio. Seriously though, I should be excited by that possibility of Harden on the Celtics but I am not.

 

[nighthob]

Think there's anything to this?

View: https://twitter.com/johngranato/status/1340693638196686850

Well those Harden/Tatum pick & rolls would be pretty lethal. But that trade is necessarily built around Brown and Smart and that would really be a gut punch for the locker room. Especially when you’re bringing in someone like Harden. So I’m hoping this is just a bid up the price rumor from the Rockets.

As far as the other part goes, Siakam is a pretty good piece for Houston. Presumably the mechanics would be something like Siakam/VanVleet/picks for Harden/Gordon. Houston would be out of the title picture, but the Wall/VanVleet backcourt could be pretty good and Siakam would slot in well with the Rockets’ front court. That’s a playoff team in 2021, and then they can look at a tear down after.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Well those Harden/Tatum pick & rolls would be pretty lethal. But that trade is necessarily built around Brown and Smart and that would really be a gut punch for the locker room. Especially when you’re bringing in someone like Harden. So I’m hoping this is just a bid up the price rumor from the Rockets.

As far as the other part goes, Siakam is a pretty good piece for Houston. Presumably the mechanics would be something like Siakam/VanVleet/picks for Harden/Gordon. Houston would be out of the title picture, but the Wall/VanVleet backcourt could be pretty good and Siakam would slot in well with the Rockets’ front court. That’s a playoff team in 2021, and then they can look at a tear down after.

I’m leaning no but would still be a little tempted. Jaylen/Smart is too much for me to give up but if you could do Kemba/Jaylen/picks for Harden/Gordon, I might think longer about it. Problem is Houston already has Wall so don’t think that would work.

 

[nighthob]

Wall has the size/length to guard the two spot and a Wallker backcourt might be pretty effective for the Rockets. If they’d do Brown/Walker/Langford/RWill/picks for Harden/Gordon/House I might bite too.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Wall has the size/length to guard the two spot and a Wallker backcourt might be pretty effective for the Rockets. If they’d do Brown/Walker/Langford/RWill/picks for Harden/Gordon/House I might bite too.

True. And Kemba is a “name” that you could at least sell to the fan base along with the centerpiece Jaylen.

In this hypothetical:

Cousins
Wood
Brown
Wall
Kemba

That’s actually a pretty decent squad if Kemba’s leg isn’t amputated and Jaylen gives you a legit building block talent to work with along with Wood.

I think the Celtics have the pieces to get it done if Danny were ever interested, which I doubt he is.

 

[Imbricus]

Apologies if this article about Harden was posted elsewhere (I didn't happen to see it), but after reading this, I could see why the Celtics would take a hard pass on Harden. He sounds like an invitation to create a truly toxic culture. If they throw their chips in on this guy, it sounds like everything changes. Everything.

"We knew who the boss of the organization was," a former Rockets assistant coach said. "That's just part of what the deal was when you go to Houston. The players, coaches, GM, owner all know.

"I don't blame James. I blame the organization. It's not his fault. He did what they allowed him to do."
....
Westbrook didn't tolerate tardiness. With the Rockets, scheduled departure times were treated as mere suggestions by Harden and others.

"Nothing ever starts on time," a former Rockets staffer said. "The plane is always late. The bus is never on time. ... It's just an organized AAU team."

 

[benhogan]

Apologies if this article about Harden was posted elsewhere (I didn't happen to see it), but after reading this, I could see why the Celtics would take a hard pass on Harden. He sounds like an invitation to create a truly toxic culture. If they throw their chips in on this guy, it sounds like everything changes. Everything.

Don't worry, Danny isn't handing the organization over to another prima donna. Think he learned his lesson with the Kyrie disaster