NBA Finals: Celtics vs Mavs
- Thread starter RorschachsMask
- Start date
Yeah if Tatum can handle the additional minutes without another big on the court and Luka/kyrie don't toast them too badly, my hope would be that Horford/Pritchard/hauser absorb most of the lost minutes.
Play to his strengths as the lob guy on that end. There is obv no perfect answer but this is the far superior one than playing Tillman who has seemed like the square peg trying to fit into the round hole since he’s been there. Playing small against Dallas is a death sentence as that is what their offense has feasted on all year while struggling with frontcourt length.
I vote 5-10 minutes of Kornet over Tillman if it comes to that.
I get the matchup issues but Tillman has just not been good at all with Boston and Kornet has been more useful this year. He can stop lobs, get a block, and maybe a putback OREB/basket to make his minutes semi-palatable. Tillman looks slow and injured to me so his D is less than advertised. Plus, just because he in theory can shoot 3s doesn’t mean we want him out there doing it.
Mainly, it’ll probably be some Tatum at 5, more Al minutes, and hope for something from KP.
I get the matchup issues but Tillman has just not been good at all with Boston and Kornet has been more useful this year. He can stop lobs, get a block, and maybe a putback OREB/basket to make his minutes semi-palatable. Tillman looks slow and injured to me so his D is less than advertised. Plus, just because he in theory can shoot 3s doesn’t mean we want him out there doing it.
Mainly, it’ll probably be some Tatum at 5, more Al minutes, and hope for something from KP.
Tatum’s absolutely incredible conditioning is an underrated skill of his. He had 1000 drives in game 2 and was still able to guard and do everything for a full 45 minutes. Meanwhile, we saw Luka on the other side. And yeah, I agree - I hope this is the route they go personally.
It’d be a massive upset if Scott Foster isn’t reffing this game.
So do I. I think Luke is better served to contribute this series than he was against Indiana. Lob threat offensively, gives some rim protection although not at the KP level, and can rebound.
Eh Tatum has played the 5 well. You could definitely get away with 3 guards when Luka is out.
I think Kornet is probably a better player than Tillman, but I think the idea that you change the highly effective schemes you are running against DAL to get Luke Kornet some lobs is insane.
On offense the Celtics (and earilier in the year the Pacers) have used guards in the dunkers spot and bigs on the perimeter to turn what was one of the better at the rim defenses in the league into one of the worst, because instead of rolling bigs to the rim and letting Gafford and Lively lurk to be the help at the rim the help at the rim is Kyrie Iving, Luka Doncic or Josh Green. Kornet lobs is not a good enough reason to greatly hurt how often you get Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum at the rim against a small.
On defense... people keep talking about Kornet defending lobs..... Porzingis has defended 1 lob across 2 games as far as I can tell... he's rarely in those PnR at all because of the pre-switching, the lobs are being stopped because the bigs can't get free rolls to the rim, because we aren't trapping, or aren't even setting the picks.
We just saw last series what DAL wants to do, they WANT guys like Kornet in those actions, they tore up MIN who has MUCH better non-stretch bigs than Kornet, because the key isn't to beat DAL big on big... it's to make sure their bigs aren't in the places they want to be, by putting Tatum on the 5, pulling the bigs out of the pain on the other end, etc.
If KP can't play, and you don't think Tillman can cut it..... then you just play more Hauser, he's got enough size and mobility to provide decent defense and his floor stretching is key.
On offense the Celtics (and earilier in the year the Pacers) have used guards in the dunkers spot and bigs on the perimeter to turn what was one of the better at the rim defenses in the league into one of the worst, because instead of rolling bigs to the rim and letting Gafford and Lively lurk to be the help at the rim the help at the rim is Kyrie Iving, Luka Doncic or Josh Green. Kornet lobs is not a good enough reason to greatly hurt how often you get Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum at the rim against a small.
On defense... people keep talking about Kornet defending lobs..... Porzingis has defended 1 lob across 2 games as far as I can tell... he's rarely in those PnR at all because of the pre-switching, the lobs are being stopped because the bigs can't get free rolls to the rim, because we aren't trapping, or aren't even setting the picks.
We just saw last series what DAL wants to do, they WANT guys like Kornet in those actions, they tore up MIN who has MUCH better non-stretch bigs than Kornet, because the key isn't to beat DAL big on big... it's to make sure their bigs aren't in the places they want to be, by putting Tatum on the 5, pulling the bigs out of the pain on the other end, etc.
If KP can't play, and you don't think Tillman can cut it..... then you just play more Hauser, he's got enough size and mobility to provide decent defense and his floor stretching is key.
I don’t think you change what you do to placate Kornet. But if Tatum or anyone really is attacking the rim, that could organically lead to lob opportunities.
Not if Kornet is where the big is supposed to be in our current scheme.... 25 feet from the basket.
That's one reason I think even Tillman might not be getting minutes either... the whole strategy is based on a shooting threat dragging the big to the perimeter... and if they just say "yeah we won't guard that guy out there" it kind of falls apart. My thought is Tillman might get the Marcus Smart contests... he was a 33% shooter who people still contested because it's hard to watch a guy take rhythm 3s unless you know he just doesn't take them.
Sounds like KP will give it a go, so hopefully moot.
This pretty much. Key role player to watch in game 3 will probably be Hauser.
Hopefully KP can still give 10 minutes-ish of somewhat effective minutes so we don't have to play Kornet/Tillman at all.
They may have to adjust their actions if Luke has to play for 5-10 minutes. Let Luke go be the screener in PnR and see if Lively or Gafford follows the ball handler or not.
It's a great point about Tatum - he didn't sit in the second half of Game 2.
As another poster mentioned, this is when I want to see Kornet unvailing his secret 3P stroke. Reminds me of that Kevin Garnett clip where he talks about he can hit threes.
I agree with his general point that KP can try to give it a go and he might be OK in the short term.
The idea that any non invasive taping or bracing is going to make a huge difference is overly optimistic though.
If the tendon is dislocated on the MRI, it’s already out of place with zero stress on the ankle. No brace is going to help that.
If they diagnosed the tendon dislocation via ultrasound with some dynamic maneuvers, it’s still slipping out with FAR less torque than you’d put on it during an NBA game.
They’ll probably try a wrap/brace and maybe it’ll help a bit or give some placebo effect. But if this diagnosis is as clear cut as they’ve made it seem with the reports so far, that tendon is going to be sliding around, no way to really stop it.
There is a theoretical version of Tillman that matches up better and probably a reasonable argument that guy should get any excess minutes over Kornet. We haven’t really seen that version recently, so to me it’s a moot point.
Obviously we aren’t going to actually run much of anything for Kornet, but he can still get lobs or other finishes around the basket much more easily than Tillman on just random basketball plays, offensive rebounds etc.
The Mavs generally have done better against small ball and I don’t see anything Tillman provides that would be worth giving him playing time.
I loved that Celtic video of the continuous baskets they put out after Game 1. They should do the same with the Luka defense 
Its been awesome how having 5 shooters at all times has made getting quality looks easy for us in the series, but lets not act like having one non-shooter suddenly makes the Mavericks defense an unstoppable force. They were middle of the pack in the playoffs on defense with matchups that allowed them to sink into the paint. We had an incredible offense with Kornet on the floor too this year. I think we can deal with 10 minutes of Kornet.
https://x.com/ZachLowe_NBA/status/1800624249364988245
Lowe was doing a pod with Steve Jones Jr.(excellent analyst from the Dunker'sSpot) when the Porzingis news broke.
Basically they came down to:
Kornet.... Can't switch, non-shooter, would change thing on both ends
Brissett.... might not change D as much, non-shooter changes the offense
Tillman... in-between the two on D not as switchy but not pure drop, non-shooter on offense
Lowe suggested maybe they just extend Hauser/Pritchard minutes, but that BOS has tried to keep them to the minutes where only 1 of Luka/Kyrie are out there.
Didn't get that in-depth because it just broke.
Lowe was doing a pod with Steve Jones Jr.(excellent analyst from the Dunker'sSpot) when the Porzingis news broke.
Basically they came down to:
Kornet.... Can't switch, non-shooter, would change thing on both ends
Brissett.... might not change D as much, non-shooter changes the offense
Tillman... in-between the two on D not as switchy but not pure drop, non-shooter on offense
Lowe suggested maybe they just extend Hauser/Pritchard minutes, but that BOS has tried to keep them to the minutes where only 1 of Luka/Kyrie are out there.
Didn't get that in-depth because it just broke.
Boston just has so much experience making the offense work with Kornet, that I can't see that end being a huge issue. They either bring him into the screening action directly, where he's a very skilled roller, or they leave him in the slot and let him work the cutting game. I don't think this is going to be the huge advantage for Dallas that people who haven't watched Boston heavily think it will be.
The Celtics offensive rating with Kornet on this year is 124.9, in nearly 1000 minutes. When he plays with Tatum, it's 129.0 (zero garbage time), in a 500 minute sample. Those are ludicrous numbers.
The issue with Kornet is always defensive: he was basically unplayable against Indiana's speed and shooting. Against Dallas, they'll play him mostly in non-Luka minutes and have him roam off bad shooters regardless.
I don't think he'll play more than 10-12 minutes, but I expect those minutes to be better than people are predicting.
The Celtics offensive rating with Kornet on this year is 124.9, in nearly 1000 minutes. When he plays with Tatum, it's 129.0 (zero garbage time), in a 500 minute sample. Those are ludicrous numbers.
The issue with Kornet is always defensive: he was basically unplayable against Indiana's speed and shooting. Against Dallas, they'll play him mostly in non-Luka minutes and have him roam off bad shooters regardless.
I don't think he'll play more than 10-12 minutes, but I expect those minutes to be better than people are predicting.
If they don't guard Tillman, maybe he starts doing this.
View: https://twitter.com/DraftExpress/status/1324506738071130114?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1324506738071130114|twgr^6ca0b7403a8f2f82195fdb3a64de31a8ca95853b|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fspartanswire.usatoday.com%2F2020%2F11%2F05%2Fwatch-michigan-states-xavier-tillman-no-2-best-shooter-in-nba-combine-drill%2F
Unfortunately, the Celtics have already given him a lot of chances this year to space from the corner. Teams have let him shoot, and the results have been bricky.
I know this was posted already but it's worth another post. Basically what you asked for. Commentary is great too.I loved that Celtic video of the continuous baskets they put out after Game 1. They should do the same with the Luka defense
View: https://twitter.com/iinangelo/status/1800354064590680501?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1800354064590680501|twgr^3360bb2c5d3cff02959008394c3f74e433ca8453|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ffadeawayworld.net%2Fcompilation-luka-doncics-terrible-defense-against-celtics-game-2-nba-finals
I don't think on offense it's that anyone thinks that they CAN'T run offense with him that works... they probably can, just that it won't be the offense they have been running, where other guys might let them do that and maybe provide better defensive contribution (where they'd also need to change strategy to accommodate him).
One thing I think.... he's misused as a corner 3 shooting PF next to Horford, which is what they tried. He should be an above the break 5. He's shooting better above the break than from the corner, and Porzingis shoots no corner 3s, he's ATB exclusive basically. I think they tried to get Tillman into the deep rotation as a 4 in part with the idea of getting the stars rest, etc. I think the only way he plays is as a small 5,
It's pretty nice that the 3-8 men on the Mavs kinda stink.
Helps make these decisions on the fringe of our rotation less critical.
The worst part of it is how he isn't able to funnel guys to help. There are plays where they clearly want to send Tatum strongside, and he's able to easily flip Luka and go middle. Leaving aside the weaknesses of Dallas' base scheme against this Boston team.....he can't even execute the base scheme.
If there's a way Dallas can get back in this series, it involves him digging deep and somehow finding a way to at least execute that base stuff.
He's 8-26 (.283) from BOS. Overall this season, he's at 24.7%, which is comprised of 16.1% from left corner 3P (5-31), 25% from right corner 3P (5-20), and 33.3% from ATB 3P (10-30).
Not great - but you know, DAL would kill to have a switchable defender who can hit 33% of his ATB 3Ps?
I'm only being about 30% serious; I trust CJM and his staff to figure out who would best replace KP if needed.
Dallas has guys who can hit ok % from ATB. The problem is that they take awhile to get the shot off, and aren't confident in it, so you can leave them anyway.
Tillman is that, but with worse shooting percentages.
1. We aren’t playing Kornet for lobs on offense we are playing as the superior defensive player within our scheme.
2. Porzingis has defended lobs with his presence as he takes them away…not because he steals/blocks them. Dallas has all but eliminated it from their offense when KP has been on the floor and this option is a big part of their offense with Doncic off the dribble.
3. Hauser and smallball could work bc of Jrue/White on the perimeter but is our most difficult path to getting stops if Luka is healthy enough to get into the paint with his dribble. Aside for a couple possessions to mix it up I don’t see Joe going this route much.
I was a fan of the Tillman acquisition and believe there's matchups where he, at least in theory, is the right answer. But he has sucked for the most part, and there's questions whether he is really healthy-which impacts quickness/switchability his best defensive asset.
He also doesn't fit well scheme wise at either end in this matchup--defensively, we need a rim protector and he is not that. Offensively, he is neither a vertical threat nor (in this version of him) at all a 5 out option. The only reason I'd plug him in defensively is if the Mavs are just roasting Kornet on switches and we decide we need a more switchable big - possible, but given we're talking about a small number of minutes so not a sure thing to happen.
Out of curiosity, anyone know how Dallas has done vs zone this year? If Kornet is in there I could imagine something akin to a box and one, with Jrue sticking to Luka. Sure, it's not a thing I'd want for 30 minutes a game but we're assuming Al is at 32 or so, and Luka will sit for 4-6 (ideally, Al sits when Luka does) so we're only talking about something for a couple minutes each half, or as a change of pace.
He also doesn't fit well scheme wise at either end in this matchup--defensively, we need a rim protector and he is not that. Offensively, he is neither a vertical threat nor (in this version of him) at all a 5 out option. The only reason I'd plug him in defensively is if the Mavs are just roasting Kornet on switches and we decide we need a more switchable big - possible, but given we're talking about a small number of minutes so not a sure thing to happen.
Out of curiosity, anyone know how Dallas has done vs zone this year? If Kornet is in there I could imagine something akin to a box and one, with Jrue sticking to Luka. Sure, it's not a thing I'd want for 30 minutes a game but we're assuming Al is at 32 or so, and Luka will sit for 4-6 (ideally, Al sits when Luka does) so we're only talking about something for a couple minutes each half, or as a change of pace.
If he’s effective and out of foul trouble there is no reason he can’t/won’t go 38-40 min. When Porzingis was out during the regular season he was often in this range. I think Kornet will give us enough where you won’t have to play Al this much but it isn’t like he’s going to be on a minutes restriction of 30-32 so even if Kornet isn’t effective we likely won’t need to get too creative in an alternative.
The least shocking thing would be to see the Celtics come out and shoot 42% from 3 on high volume, knowing they are once again limited even if KP plays. If the Mavs go small, as some have speculated, it feels like it allows the Celtics to play with even more pace.
I think Luke will be fine and we may see some small ball lineups (+Hauser)
FWIW Horford never hit the 39-minute mark this season with KP out quite often
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/horfoal01/gamelog/2024
1. He's not a better fit for what we've done on defense in this series though, where we have gone to almost always switching, which he can't do.
2. this is silly. Porzingis has played 44 of the 96 minutes in this series, and there have been as many lob attempts in those 44 as the other 52.... if his presence on the bench also eliminating lobs? I would suggest listening to the Steve Jones Jr/Zach Lowe pod linked above, they do a nice job talking about how the lobs are being denied by the positioning of the smalls and Tatum.
3. I think they might go smallball mostly in non-Luka minutes. But the key to the D has generally been that Luka can't get all the way to the rim, not that they are erasing him there. Kyrie might be the bigger argument for a roving shotblocking big, but I think he'll just get Luke away from the hoop and cook him in PnR.
He has hit it twice in the playoffs though, with another game at 38:46. This close to a title I can see them pushing his minutes as much as they need to.
Has there been any discussion here on Brissett taking a few minutes? Could Tatum play the 5 and Brissett some minutes at the four?
I'm starting to think the most likely outcome is more minutes for Hauser and the rotations stay the same, except maybe a very few minutes for one of Kornet, Brissett, or Tillman.
I'm starting to think the most likely outcome is more minutes for Hauser and the rotations stay the same, except maybe a very few minutes for one of Kornet, Brissett, or Tillman.
Probably right about Luke's defense being problematic in the context of this series. But If Luke plays 10 minutes, I think he'll have at least 2 breakaway dunks because Doncic wont bother to try and stay with him.
Given Doncic's FT shooting woes, some Oshae bull-in-china-shop play might be a good changeup.
Characterizing the 1986 Rockets or 2000 Pacers as evenly matched with their Finals opponent in some way that doesn't apply to the current series seems nuts to me.
By SRS, the Celtics-Mavericks is one of the more lopsided matchups in history.
Celtics (10.75) Mavericks (2.30)
The 16-17 Warriors (11.35) over the Cavaliers (2.85) stands out as another example.
Noteworthy that the previous year’s matchup was more even. Cavaliers were much better in 15-16, something that was implicitly recognized by Cleveland fans when I was able to score playoff tickets for $25 a pop.
Luke was apparently very good pre-Celtics from 3, yes? It seems like something they don’t want him doing for whatever reason.
If you look at Luke’s famous three point outburst, you can see that the Bucks are cheating way off of him.
View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=20&v=aXH6jaNARb4&embeds_referring_euri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.celticsblog.com%2F&source_ve_path=Mjg2NjY&feature=emb_logo