NBA Finals: Celtics vs Mavs
- Thread starter RorschachsMask
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It's always been James Harden. People shy away from that because Harden has put up tons of playoff clunkers while Luka seems to raise his game in the spring, but in terms of style and overall impact, it's as easy a comp among superstars as you'll find.
Showing my age, but Luka's game reminds me of Alex English and Bernard King, although, even though neither would be considered above average defender, I think that English and King tried more on defense than Luka
A lot of the narrative coming into this series was Dallas has the best player and best player generally wins in a 7 game series. What that doesn’t factor in is defense. In the history of the nba, those players winning Championships have been good to great defenders. Luka is neither of those. He is basically a non factor on that end.
Magic is probably the best example of a one way player being successful at that level.
Reddit says George Gervin was a horrible defender so he might be a comp.
Kiki Vandeweghe had the reputation of not being to guard anyone but boy could he score.
Steve Nash couldn't really guard anyone given his size and stature. Dirk was pretty bad defensively for most of his career by reputation.
Something is wrong on the Dallas shot chart. At 3:26 left in the 1st, he has a wide open corner 3 from the near side baseline. It's noted in the game log. And yet, it doesn't show up as a corner 3 on the Mavs shot chart.
Stuff like that makes it hard to 100% trust all of the numbers.
Stuff like that makes it hard to 100% trust all of the numbers.
Both NBA.com and BRef has it as an Above-The-Break 3P. While I'm sure the mistakes, I would hope they wouldn't be substantial enough to throw off the numbers. But good catch.
I've been thinking about what the Mavericks can do in terms of adjustments going into game 2. Defensively, you have to wonder if they consider scaling back the "Tatum rules" a little bit in terms of help and attention on JT in order not to give up such good and wide open looks to the rest of the Celtics. This has been a theme all season for the Celtics - JT might not score 30, but he is responsible for so much of the offensive output of the Celtics just in terms of the way he collapses defenses and creates open space for his teammates.
There were multiple possessions where Luka just completely left his guy in the corner (Jrue - the highest percentage corner 3 point shooter in the league! and DWhite most often) to shade toward the paint and help on Tatum, leading to a wide open shot.
Some of that is just Luka's bad defense and gambling, but Tatum continuously drew multiple defenders above the key - and he made the right plays (14 potential assists, Cs just missed some shots).
Curious what other people think - obviously JT is a first team All NBA guy and is capable of dropping 40 on you. But they don't have a ton of great options (hehe), and this defense is literally playing exactly into what the Celtics want to do.
There were multiple possessions where Luka just completely left his guy in the corner (Jrue - the highest percentage corner 3 point shooter in the league! and DWhite most often) to shade toward the paint and help on Tatum, leading to a wide open shot.
Some of that is just Luka's bad defense and gambling, but Tatum continuously drew multiple defenders above the key - and he made the right plays (14 potential assists, Cs just missed some shots).
Curious what other people think - obviously JT is a first team All NBA guy and is capable of dropping 40 on you. But they don't have a ton of great options (hehe), and this defense is literally playing exactly into what the Celtics want to do.
Prime Harden won an MVP, finished 2nd three other times and 3rd once. If he’s that guy that’s pretty freakin good. That’s also a good comp on so many levels btw.
One note is that you can find posts here about how Tatum had a bad game last night---I mean, if we have the kitchkinet rule for the main board migiht we get an equivalent here? It's fine if you don't understand basketball offense, but don't post here judging guys unless you have enough understanding to do so coherently.
If I were Carlisle a few things I'd be considering/adjusting..
1. They must get more physical on the perimeter and see if they can get away with it. They simply don't have four strong perimeter defenders on the roster (let alone the actual rotation) to keep the Celtics out of the paint---we hardly saw Jrue or White drive last night, but they are capable of it too. So they have to try to gum it up Miami-style and see if they can survive the whistle on it. Vs Minny they gummed up the paint---the Celtics spacing makes that hard, I think they have to be handsy outside and hope they can get away with enough of it to keep their guys in the game.
2. Offensviely, I wonder if we see a bit more of Hardy or Hardaway. Dallas needs a third guy who has some chance of creating an advantage/hitting a standalone shot. Those are the only two getting minutes who might. While they take a defensive hit, the reality is DJJ/Green aren't really stopping Celtics anyway so you might as well try to get some juice on offense. I'm not saying start them, but use them more off the bench and see if takes.
3. If you were Kidd would you think about going smaller? If you have Lively with Luka at the 4 you can get more shooting/offensive juice out there and while you're worse defensively in theory you're probably better on the perimeter. It's not how they've played, but it's worth a thought. Lively/Luka/Washington/Green or DJJ/Hardy or Hardaway is sort of intereresting matchup-wise for them. Again, not to start but as something you try in first half.
I suspect Dallas looks at last three quarters and thinks that they should go another game with the same basic plan. And I would guess Celtics have more they will clean up/improve than that will allow to succeed. Dallas had some core problems at both ends---not enough juice on offense, no great answer fo 5 out on defense...the 'play harder' button and shot luck will help but not 18 points worth
If I were Carlisle a few things I'd be considering/adjusting..
1. They must get more physical on the perimeter and see if they can get away with it. They simply don't have four strong perimeter defenders on the roster (let alone the actual rotation) to keep the Celtics out of the paint---we hardly saw Jrue or White drive last night, but they are capable of it too. So they have to try to gum it up Miami-style and see if they can survive the whistle on it. Vs Minny they gummed up the paint---the Celtics spacing makes that hard, I think they have to be handsy outside and hope they can get away with enough of it to keep their guys in the game.
2. Offensviely, I wonder if we see a bit more of Hardy or Hardaway. Dallas needs a third guy who has some chance of creating an advantage/hitting a standalone shot. Those are the only two getting minutes who might. While they take a defensive hit, the reality is DJJ/Green aren't really stopping Celtics anyway so you might as well try to get some juice on offense. I'm not saying start them, but use them more off the bench and see if takes.
3. If you were Kidd would you think about going smaller? If you have Lively with Luka at the 4 you can get more shooting/offensive juice out there and while you're worse defensively in theory you're probably better on the perimeter. It's not how they've played, but it's worth a thought. Lively/Luka/Washington/Green or DJJ/Hardy or Hardaway is sort of intereresting matchup-wise for them. Again, not to start but as something you try in first half.
I suspect Dallas looks at last three quarters and thinks that they should go another game with the same basic plan. And I would guess Celtics have more they will clean up/improve than that will allow to succeed. Dallas had some core problems at both ends---not enough juice on offense, no great answer fo 5 out on defense...the 'play harder' button and shot luck will help but not 18 points worth
Math there?
Cs converted Tatum's potentials at 250% what Mavs did with Luka.
I have watched this... 30 times today? I wish we had a true superstar like the Mavs.
If you put Luka in this media market, imagine how brutally they would be roasting him for the way he plods back upcourt. End of career Shaq got back quicker than that.
Harden was way better defensively at 25 and through his prime. Also Luka gets the emptiest boards in the game. He gets 10, I can't tell you a single board I remember him getting. He basically sits at the elbow waiting for a ball to skirt out. If someone doesn't sprint like a bat at all of hell, Luka doesn't push in transition. Harden would at least push the ball.
Yes I think Luka is very good (although he had a bad game 1)
The Harden comp is a compliment, not a diss. Dude was an MVP who nearly knocked off the best team ever.
Agree with 1 and 2.
Does 3 move the needle? PJ Washington was their 2nd best player and he's their 4. Putting PJ at the 5 is interesting on offense because they could play 5 out but most of Dallas's offensive identity is based off of having a 5 who can pick and then rim run (their defense is also based off of limiting shots at the rim and putting PJ at the 5 compromises that)
I think the one adjustment Kidd has is to try and muck it up and play a halfcourt game. I don't think there's much of an ace in the hole other than that
Luka is better on offense but worse on defense than prime Harden. I think playing a five out team like the Celtics, Prime Harden would have been more disruptive.
Holy hell. That is fucking pathetic effort by Luka there.
He misses a layup so he at least has to shoot a glare at the ref in the hopes of some foul being called...then he lightly jogs back, decides to double team for.....reasons, doesnt bother to move or rotate to antoher player but points and yells at his teammates to do so.
That was embarrassing to even watch
He is ELITE at telling his teammates what to do on D so that he doesn't have to move.
Same as you said not an insult, Luka is just so damn efficient. Harden was a way more complete player.
Very nice breakdown (Thinking Basketball) of many things the Celtics did on defense and some O stuff as well.
Attention: If you watch this, your erection may last for longer than 4h.
Attention: If you watch this, your erection may last for longer than 4h.
Timpf game 1. Have not watched yet.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UMaBqaW9QqI&ab_channel=HoopsTonight
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UMaBqaW9QqI&ab_channel=HoopsTonight
In addition to what everyone else has already said, a bunch of this is just staying mentally engaged and focused on what's happening around you, in the way that allows you to correctly anticipate where your team-mates might need you to be in a few seconds.
This kinda being mentally "on" is somewhat draining in it's own way. So, normal people tend to drift in and out of this state. If you have an office job, think about how many work meetings you've been in where someone around the table is only half listening and kinda half zoned out.
A few years ago Jaylen and Tatum both could semi-regularly do this kind of zone out on defense. They've both way better now. Which I think is party maturity. And also partly because they've experienced disappointment, and are dialing up the willpower now.
As an example of 'working hard to keep spacing', on this Celtics possession from last night watch what Jrue Holiday does...
View: https://youtu.be/nDl28m9NfGc?si=njc_hSwwnVu028c8&t=516
- Just prior to where this video starts Horford gets a pass in the right corner with the much smaller Josh Green (a guard) closing. Jrue is in the right-side dunker spot, and immediately clears to the opposite side of the lane so that Al will have less congested space in front of him. Al's not going to want to take a contested three, so his next move is likely going to be to back down Green. Jrue, anticipating this, clears the area so Al has more room to work.
- The video clip kicks in as Al puts the ball on the floor and starts to back Green to the paint, taking a high enough line that when he starts to pivot baseline with seven seconds on the shot clock Jrue's man (Derrick Lively) drops to the right side of the circle to deny Al the layup
- Jrue, anticipating what Lively is going to do, cuts hard from the paint to the right corner that Al just vacated. He does this (correctly) anticipating that once he gets there (i) there won't be a Mavs defender anywhere in the area, (ii) Al won't want to try to create a shot through a double-team and will be looking to pass out, and (iii) the strong-side high defender-- Luka-- is, ahem, unlikely to put the kinda effort to close and contest on a corner three. But if he does, Jrue can swing the ball to Tatum, who will have the open three
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I thought the Mavs already did try to goon it up a bit. Lots of shoving on the perimeter but our savvier vets took advantage by either drawing fouls or just curling right around them into the paint. KP took one all the way to the rim for a flush. Tatum has been dealing with this kind of D all season. A team like the Heat just plays that way always, maybe tougher to switch it up mid-stream. Not sure they have the horses to defend from 30 feet out all night but they have to try it. We know Luka won’t play hard two-way ball for 45 minutes. Kyrie is handsy but not super physical. We’ll see.
I thought where the wolves really lost last series was not pressing the issue more getting KAT downhill but Gobert spacing (and KAT decisionmaking) made it tough.
I thought where the wolves really lost last series was not pressing the issue more getting KAT downhill but Gobert spacing (and KAT decisionmaking) made it tough.
The times that Luka just stands around doing nothing on defense obviously stand out the most. Rewatching clips, though, it’s really striking how often we see him choose who to defend apparently not based on any sense of scheme, match-up, or anticipation of a Celtics attempt at creating an advantage, but simply because that guy is closest, requires the least effort to get to. So, like, he’s technically playing defense, sure, but not the defense.
It’s like when people in an office job move the mouse around or something so that their status doesn’t flip to Away From Desk.
Great post. And just to add: Throw in the fact that while he does in this clip, more often than not, he won’t get the ball, but he has to be ready every time. I said it in the game thread, but watching DW and JH out there… it’s like watching a machine. A really well engineered machine, too. Like, German or something.
I see what you’re talking about. Thanks for the education!
You bet.
And FWIW, everyone who knows what to look for had to learn this stuff, since it's not intuitive.
Also, this sort of thing was my biggest weakness when I played as a kid. (I mean, aside from the general lack of athleticism and hops and that I couldn't shoot for shit). I've always been somewhat ADD, and paying attention to what nine other guys were doing around me and then anticipating what they were about to do and then intuiting what I should do as a pre-reaction to that was like the center of a Venn diagram of half of dozen things that all made the gears in my brain seize up.
And god bless my coaches, who spent a certain amount of the time shouting at me from the sideline to shift where I was on defense, and probably went home and drank heavily afterward
I wouldn't find this so funny if it didn't come in consecutive thoughts
Though what impact Carlisle left on Luka in his first 2 seasons in the league - on a roster that included only Maxi Kleber on the current roster, but also had Jalen Brunson (not a bad comp for Prime Kyrie), Porzingis, and JJ Redick of all people, might be an interesting question all on its own. Were it intentionally posed.
They lost in 6 to the Mavs in the first round, I don't think it was all that close!
Sincerely,
National NBA media
So, I'll test here an idea I've been toying around with the last few weeks and see if has any traction...
...which is that part of what's going on mentally / culturally / in the locker room with this year's Mavs team is somewhat similar to the '22 Celtics. The team that fought and clawed their way to the Finals only to get tossed aside by the Warriors.
In the analogy, this year's Celtics team is something like that Curry/Klay/Draymond Warriors squad that-- once they figured out what they were dealing with-- didn't have a very hard time pushing us aside
...which is that part of what's going on mentally / culturally / in the locker room with this year's Mavs team is somewhat similar to the '22 Celtics. The team that fought and clawed their way to the Finals only to get tossed aside by the Warriors.
- The criticisms of the two best players on that Celtic team was that Tatum and Brown were too iso-oriented, too limited in their counters and so too easy for + individual and team defenses to disrupt, and they tended to zone out and not give great defensive effort too much of the time
- That Celtic team also shook up the top of their rotation at the trade deadline (hello, Derrick White)
- We played multiple guys (TimeLord & Smart especially) who other teams were happy to leave open outside, which made us easier to defend and plan for
- Our run through the playoffs was heavily dependent on our best players going off, intermixed with games when we played flat and got whooped
In the analogy, this year's Celtics team is something like that Curry/Klay/Draymond Warriors squad that-- once they figured out what they were dealing with-- didn't have a very hard time pushing us aside
thanks for posting
The video work here is excellent.
I think Timpf counted 11X Luka let someone drive past him. Ole
It's interesting but I'm not sure if buy it. The 2022 Celtics team had already been in multiple ECFs with the core guys. They had fought through growing pains together and we're ready to break through. This Dallas team is completely different than the ones that reached the WCF that year. Aside from Luka and Kleber/Hardaway/Green (who are basically deep role players) the whole team has turned over.
I do think the experience will show as the series go along and definitely benefit the Cs. Rather than GS, this team is actually giving me early Duncan Spurs vibes. They are on the cusp of making this series delightfully boring, and primed to go on a really nice three +\- year run if they can bag this one.
Horford's defense was excellent
Again expect Al to start while he plays starter minutes and CJM tries to pick his spots with KPs limited minutes.
There are some similarities. I mean both team made adjustments (2022 BOS in scheme; 2024 DAL in personnel/scheme) that unlocked some of their potential. Then both teams ran into teams that had the personnel to counter their scheme (BOS with putting a wing on the bigs; GSW by making Horford and TL defend in space and mucking it up against JB/JT).
I feel like BOS 2022 was a longer and more dominant run thought.
I also feel like 2022 BOS had the advantage that they had two wings who certainly were good enough to win a championship and BOS just had to find the correct pieces around them. I don't know if DAL can ever win a championship the way Luka currently plays defense. I mean even Jokic realized that to win the title he was going to have to get in NBA shape and start trying on defense.
Lost in the game one hullabaloo is that attendees got to see Red Panda vs White Mamba at the half.
https://www.instagram.com/reel/C77qx_oPvj2/?igsh=MWQ1ZGUxMzBkMA==
https://www.instagram.com/reel/C77qx_oPvj2/?igsh=MWQ1ZGUxMzBkMA==
It would be awesome if they can get through G2 playing KP off the bench for 20-25 minutes, let him get into better game shape and then unleash him in the starting lineup in G3 in Dallas and really break the Mavs.
It's incredibly baffling. His decision, multiple times, to help on defense all the way across the paint and leave shooters in the corner wide open for 3 is obviously not anyone's scheme. More alarmingly (for Dallas), it's literally playing into a big Celtics strength.
Many of us here were harping before the series on how he is a complete defensive liability, but it was seemingly swept under the rug by most media outlets. Or frequently downplayed. He shuffles, swipes, and that is IT.
I think you just have to cover the three point shooters, bait Tatum and Brown into driving, and confusing them with late help.
Yes, I know that is easier said than done. But if the alternative is just letting Boston drive and kick out for open threes, this isn't going to be a long series.
Well, shit…
But, really, how are Dallas’ point defenders staying in front of them in this scenario? And what does ‘late help’ mean once Brown is by Luka?
Dallas in playoffs (including game 1):
Points scored: 106.9 (mean), 108.5 (median), 89 (game 1)
Points allowed: 104.1 (mean), 105 (median), 107 (game 1)
89 was their lowest points scored in the playoffs.
Boston in playoffs (including game 1):
Points scored: 111.1 (mean), 109 (median), 107 (game 1)
Points allowed: 100.5 (mean), 98 (median), 89 (game 1)
Boston's playoff scoring has been just a touch better, while their defense has been much better. That is how game 1 played out.
Points scored: 106.9 (mean), 108.5 (median), 89 (game 1)
Points allowed: 104.1 (mean), 105 (median), 107 (game 1)
89 was their lowest points scored in the playoffs.
Boston in playoffs (including game 1):
Points scored: 111.1 (mean), 109 (median), 107 (game 1)
Points allowed: 100.5 (mean), 98 (median), 89 (game 1)
Boston's playoff scoring has been just a touch better, while their defense has been much better. That is how game 1 played out.
The Miami thing from a year ago where Brown and Tatum, esepcially Brown, drive in too deep and then turn it over or force up a bad shot. I don't think Dallas can really defend that way.
But Dallas winning a game seems like it either has to be some type of offensive explosion, maybe Luke and Kyrie combine for 90 or something. Or it is Boston shooting 4 of 52 from three. Or it is Boston not attempting a lot of threes and Tatum and Brown having pretty good statlines but not quite good enough.