NBA Finals: Celtics vs Mavs

Who wins?

  • Celtics in 4

    Votes: 22 5.0%
  • Celtics in 5

    Votes: 120 27.3%
  • Celtics in 6

    Votes: 222 50.6%
  • Celtics in 7

    Votes: 52 11.8%
  • Mavs in 4-5

    Votes: 3 0.7%
  • Mavs in 6-7

    Votes: 20 4.6%

  • Total voters
    439
  • Poll closed .

lovegtm

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Personnel mostly. Not every team has 5 players that can all shoot the ball well enough that the defense has to respect them
And it's not just shooting: those 5 guys have to be able to make plays and maintain advantages against closeouts.

At that point, you're starting to just describe "good offensive players", and there are only so many of those to go around in the league, without making other tradeoffs.

Indiana arguably makes that tradeoff: they roll out good offensive players at every position, and it gives them a lot of options. But then they are limited on the defensive end in a way that Boston isn't.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Personnel mostly. Not every team has 5 players that can all shoot the ball well enough that the defense has to respect them
Right, hell you can look at the Pacers who have an unambiguously great offense in place but 2 of their top 6 in these playoffs were guys that defenses are mostly comfortable leaving open at the 3pt line. The Dubs have Draymond, etc.

What the Celtics have is very unusual especially with the fact that you have to get to their 3rd center before you even find a rotation player who isn’t capable of draining threes. The Finals rotation is 8 deep with guys who all to a man shoot better than last year’s 35 mpg starting PG. And they can nearly all penetrate (Hauser the main exception here) and pass the ball.

As a defense you want to be able to dictate where the shots are coming from, but truly wtf can you do about the above?
  • Hack the shit out of them and hope they don’t call it
  • Keep doing what you’re doing and hope they miss enough threes across 4 games
  • Run them off the 3pt line and pray Luka hasn’t already given up on the possession before the ball swings back around to his man
  • Play zone for 48 minutes
I mean, there is a reason the Celtics metrics look historically good.

This series is far from over (I remember folks celebrating early after 2-1 over GS) but POBOBS and CJM have put together a team that simply may not be solvable in a 7 game series.

Edit: And as lovegtm mentioned while I was typing, they all defend too.
 

lovegtm

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One nice thing in this game vs. game 1 against GSW: they didn't do it by just making every 3. We all felt great after game 1 in 2022, but, as Draymond noted after the game, a lot of that was just every 3-pointer going in in the 4th quarter.

This felt a lot more sustainable in terms of finding pressure points on both ends.
 

Jeff Van GULLY

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Luka admitted in a PC before game one that his knee is still bothering him. Seemed to me to really come into play in that second half.

If that’s going to be his effort of D this series it’s a wrap already. We all know he’s no Bruce Brown but last night was exceptionally poor. On the flip side, if he can up his defensive effort, that’s going to wear him down more quickly each game too.

Not a great spot to be in for Luka or the Mavs. I guess they hope better defense will lead to more transition buckets? Unfortunately, that’s not their game in the playoffs, with the 5th worst points per possession in transition.
 

tims4wins

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Luka admitted in a PC before game one that his knee is still bothering him. Seemed to me to really come into play in that second half.
I fully expect him to sit out game 4 down 3-0.

I noticed last night that the Celts played 2BIGZ a couple times. Anyone have stats on that - amount of time, net rating, etc.?
 

HomeRunBaker

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And it's not just shooting: those 5 guys have to be able to make plays and maintain advantages against closeouts.

At that point, you're starting to just describe "good offensive players", and there are only so many of those to go around in the league, without making other tradeoffs.

Indiana arguably makes that tradeoff: they roll out good offensive players at every position, and it gives them a lot of options. But then they are limited on the defensive end in a way that Boston isn't.
This.

What makes Boston’s shooters such a threat is that they are not one-dimensional stationary shooters. Jrue, Derrick, Jaylen, KP and Jayson will exploit any team off the dribble and with their passing to a defense that overcommits. This is what provides them so much space to get their shots off.

Luka admitted in a PC before game one that his knee is still bothering him. Seemed to me to really come into play in that second half.

If that’s going to be his effort of D this series it’s a wrap already. We all know he’s no Bruce Brown but last night was exceptionally poor. On the flip side, if he can up his defensive effort, that’s going to wear him down more quickly each game too.

Not a great spot to be in for Luka or the Mavs. I guess they hope better defense will lead to more transition buckets? Unfortunately, that’s not their game in the playoffs, with the 5th worst points per possession in transition.
We all know this isn’t the best matchup for Doncic especially with his knee but the Mavs weren’t able to connect their help defender to Jaylen as they were to Ant last series. Jaylen seems prepared to know precisely when/where the help was coming from and sliced away from it. Game 2 is going to tell the story of this series if Kidd can devise a way to clog up the middle as they like to do off dribble penetration. If it doesn’t happen on Sunday it isn’t likely going to happen which is the path to a sweep that I talked about all week. If they do find something that works and/or bothers our shooters then we have a 5-game series with the Mavs holding home court (for whatever that’s worth in 2024 for these two teams) and things can get funky for us.
 
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m0ckduck

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One nice thing in this game vs. game 1 against GSW: they didn't do it by just making every 3. We all felt great after game 1 in 2022, but, as Draymond noted after the game, a lot of that was just every 3-pointer going in in the 4th quarter.

This felt a lot more sustainable in terms of finding pressure points on both ends.
That, and the fact they led virtually the whole game last night.
 

Eddie Jurak

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I fully expect him to sit out game 4 down 3-0.

I noticed last night that the Celts played 2BIGZ a couple times. Anyone have stats on that - amount of time, net rating, etc.?
Al alone: +8
KP alone: +14
LK alone (garbage): -3
Al+KP: -1 (5:41 in second quarter)
 

lars10

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That, and the fact they led virtually the whole game last night.
It felt like a typical game for them this year. Get a lead. Maintain the lead.. if the other team makes a run, counter.

It’s hard to come back on this team because they force you to keep up. Even in the stretch where Dallas came back, the Celts were getting open shots but just missing them. DW makes a few shots he missed there and it’s never below double digits. Also, Dallas had to use a ton of energy to come back.. hard to maintain that effort.
 

bigq

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One of the things people in general don't get is the Mavs are not going to be as good as the Pacers were on offense. They aren't going to sniff that. Luka and Kyrie want to slow the game down.
I guess those would be casual fans who are not really paying attention. Indiana had the highest scoring offense in the regular season as well as the playoffs by pretty comfortable margins. Dallas has Luka and Kyrie who are known as special offensive players but as a team the Mavs are not among the league leaders in PPG or offensive efficiency.
 

Kliq

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And it's not just shooting: those 5 guys have to be able to make plays and maintain advantages against closeouts.

At that point, you're starting to just describe "good offensive players", and there are only so many of those to go around in the league, without making other tradeoffs.

Indiana arguably makes that tradeoff: they roll out good offensive players at every position, and it gives them a lot of options. But then they are limited on the defensive end in a way that Boston isn't.
Yeah, and it isn't just having people to shoot threes. Jrue in particular is really good at cutting to the basket when he senses help coming off him--and he has the skill and strength to finish at the rim in those kind of moments that few guards possess.
 

NoXInNixon

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Going back to 1990, ten teams won game 1 of the Finals by 15 points or more. Eight of them won the title. The two who didn't:

2016 Golden State (Peak Lebron plus Green getting suspended for game 6.)
2012 OKC (Also Peak Lebron.)
 
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snowmanny

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Going back to 1990, ten teams won game 1 of the Finals by 15 points or more. Eight of them won the title. The two who didn't:

2016 Golden State (Peak Lebron plus Green getting suspended for game 6.)
2012 OKC (Just a colossal choke.)
theres another one if you go back five more years.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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A hugely impressive thing to me was how the Celtics schematically took away Dallas' lob game, which had devastated teams during this run. I don't recall any successful lobs and only a few attempts from the Mavs. That really reduces the effectiveness Lively/Gafford have on offense.
KI had an air ball that Gafford dunked home that may have been scored as a "lob."

PJ Washington had a drive and dish to Lively for a dunk - his only basket. DAL is in big trouble if they have to rely on PJ Washington creating.

Compare that to Indiana, who constantly move, reset, react, and force you to defend for 24 seconds. There's a reason that Indiana's offense all season *without* Halliburton was better than Dallas' overall.
Another silly/ignorant thing I heard (on the Locked on Mavs podcast but I'm sure elsewhere) was, "If TJ McConnell and Andrew Nembhard can torch BOS, how will they defend Luka and Kyrie?".

First of all, both TJ and Nembhard are pretty elite mid-range shooters. But as you mention, it wasn't that TJ and Nembhard were starting with the ball 1 on 1 and then trying to beat whoever was in front of them. They were getting open because of cuts and screens and then using any positional advantage gained. IND scores a lot of points not because they have great scorers but because they play great offense.


What the Celtics have is very unusual especially with the fact that you have to get to their 3rd center before you even find a rotation player who isn’t capable of draining threes. The Finals rotation is 8 deep with guys who all to a man shoot better than last year’s 35 mpg starting PG. And they can nearly all penetrate (Hauser the main exception here) and pass the ball.
I wondered out loud at the beginning of the season whether BOS has the best shooting starting five in history. Obviously GSW had better individual shooters but I can't think of another team that had 5 starters who could shoot this well. It's kind of unguardable.
 

Van Everyman

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I will say this again: I don't expect it to happen but nothing would make me happier than 4 blowouts and a completely non-competitive Finals. As a Boston sports fan, I have enjoyed more than enough great, dramatic sports memories to last a lifetime. Now, I just want to bank titles. And I want this team to bank them.
 

tims4wins

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I will say this again: I don't expect it to happen but nothing would make me happier than 4 blowouts and a completely non-competitive Finals. As a Boston sports fan, I have enjoyed more than enough great, dramatic sports memories to last a lifetime. Now, I just want to bank titles. And I want this team to bank them.
I think this is going to happen. Maybe game B or game 3 are a bit closer at the end. But I think we are looking at a sweep and 3 of 4 games with double digit wins.
 

TomRicardo

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I will say this again: I don't expect it to happen but nothing would make me happier than 4 blowouts and a completely non-competitive Finals. As a Boston sports fan, I have enjoyed more than enough great, dramatic sports memories to last a lifetime. Now, I just want to bank titles. And I want this team to bank them.
If they get punched in the face again, and lose game 3, I doubt Luka plays game 4.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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This stat is wild

In Game 1, however, Dallas went 1-for-6 on shots off Doncic's passes, and had just 209 total passes as a team, per Second Spectrum's tracking data, the Mavericks' fewest in any game (regular season or playoffs) since player tracking began in the 2013-14 season
From this article: Mavericks' movement stymied by Celtics' defense in Game 1 loss - ESPN

Dallas had shot 57% on passes from Doncic during the first three rounds of the playoffs, when he averaged a league-high 8.8 assists per game, according to ESPN Stats & Information tracking. The Mavs went only 1-of-6 from the floor on Doncic feeds in their third Game 1 loss of this postseason.

Doncic's one assist was a career playoff low. So were his six potential assists. He had averaged 15.4 potential assists in these playoffs entering Game 1.
 

Jimbodandy

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I've never really liked Dallas' offense during the playoffs. It's very heliocentric and reliant on Luka (and to a lesser extent, Kyrie) to make something happen with everyone else standing around in designated spots. The game last night was really just hoping Luka makes some tough shots. When Dallas' went on their run in the third quarter it was really because Luka made a series of extremely difficult shots, and that just isn't sustainable over the course of the game.

It's funny to see how so many people were suckered into talking about individual offensive ability leading up to the series, which led to a ton of focus on "How will the Celtics stop Luka/Kyrie?" and then you watch Game 1 and it's clear the Celtics have a far superior offense because they play five out, everyone moves, and they really swing the ball around to the open man. Luka is the best offensive player in this series from an individual skill perspective, but the Celtics are better at actually putting the ball into the basket than the Mavericks, and that is what matters.

A hugely impressive thing to me was how the Celtics schematically took away Dallas' lob game, which had devastated teams during this run. I don't recall any successful lobs and only a few attempts from the Mavs. That really reduces the effectiveness Lively/Gafford have on offense.

Porzingis' contributions on defense were just as important as his shot making on offense. The Celtics did get carved up at the rim by Indiana, but KP is such a deterrence with his length and timing--he made a bunch of plays in the first half, some of which were highlight blocks and others were just him effecting shots at the basket.
The bolded is a fantastic callout. It's not an accident that the lobs were being broken up and were generally unavailable. Great scheming on that.
 

Cellar-Door

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Anybody find a place to buy one of those Walton shirts?
Nike made them for the NBA, not for sale
This looks like it but I don't trust this vendor.
https://fatherfigureclothing.shop/products/boston-celtics-bill-walton-nike-v-neck-t-shirt/

The Simmons pod said how important Jrue was defensively. I don't think the booth mentioned him much last night.
That's a scam/AI site I think. At best selling copyright infringing material, at worst selling your CC info.
 

m0ckduck

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Another silly/ignorant thing I heard (on the Locked on Mavs podcast but I'm sure elsewhere) was, "If TJ McConnell and Andrew Nembhard can torch BOS, how will they defend Luka and Kyrie?".
God, that really does encapsulate so much of what's stupid about the majority of basketball analysis: the decontextualized mano-mano nonsense of it all.
 

snowmanny

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If they get punched in the face again, and lose game 3, I doubt Luka plays game 4.
They beat Dallas without Luka!

Referencing the "They beat Indiana but they were without Haliburton" and "They beat Cleveland but they were without Mitchell" when Boston went a combined 4-1 against Indiana with Haliburton/Cleveland with Mitchell.

I am pretty confident that this team is not going to lose focus in Game B like they did with Miami and Cleveland, and I am very happy today, but I will be nervous by Sunday afternoon.
 

Cellar-Door

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Maybe he is coached this way, but Lively could have easily prevented this KP dunk if he didn't sprint into the offensive halfcour.

View: https://streamable.com/f9njir
Lot of guys do that (Tatum and Brown I know do) to get the runout dunk, he has a 4 on 1 essentially under the basket. The runout isn't a big deal, he's moving the wrong direction to be involved in rebounding. The problem there is....Luka never moves an inch for the rebound, and for some reason PJ Washington ignores Tatum and the ball to go shouldercheck Jrue who has NO CHANCE of getting a rebound off a 3 crashing on the baseline. If the Mavs play that even vaguely competently he should have a dunk
 

Auger34

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Luka's defense is legitimately rotten. He doesn't even pretend to try to stay in front of anyone

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bv3zKD8iaPE
Luka does the same thing every time. He shuffles his feet for one action and he can stone wall at that point because he is strong. If the offensive player keeps trying, he will get around Luka who will then try to swipe from behind. After that, he's done. No effort to move or do anything else
 

lovegtm

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Luka does the same thing every time. He shuffles his feet for one action and he can stone wall at that point because he is strong. If the offensive player keeps trying, he will get around Luka who will then try to swipe from behind. After that, he's done. No effort to move or do anything else
Yup, everything in Dallas' scheme (on both ends, actually) is about initial actions. If you have the personnel and reps to be willing (obviously often don't need it all) to use 24 seconds, 5 players, and 2 sides of the court, they can get got.
 

Euclis20

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Going back to 1990, ten teams won game 1 of the Finals by 15 points or more. Eight of them won the title. The two who didn't:

2016 Golden State (Peak Lebron plus Green getting suspended for game 6.)
2012 OKC (Also Peak Lebron.)
Mavs have Luka, who we've been told is basically Peak Lebron with a 3 point shot. We're fucked.
 

rodderick

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Yup, everything in Dallas' scheme (on both ends, actually) is about initial actions. If you have the personnel and reps to be willing (obviously often don't need it all) to use 24 seconds, 5 players, and 2 sides of the court, they can get got.
I actually went back and looked at how the Pacers vs. Mavs matchups went this season because watching them I was thinking "man, Indiana would have been such a problem for those guys". And sure enough, the Pacers scored 270 points on them in two games, winning one by 17 and the other by 22.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I actually went back and looked at how the Pacers vs. Mavs matchups went this season because watching them I was thinking "man, Indiana would have been such a problem for those guys". And sure enough, the Pacers scored 270 points on them in two games, winning one by 17 and the other by 22.
I re-watched the first half of the second game just to see how DAL might react to an offense that actually has movement, cutting, and actions. DAL has few defenders who can play in space; IND basically got anything they wanted. And no one on DAL could stop Myles Turner of all people.
 

RedOctober3829

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deep inside Guido territory

RorschachsMask

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Yup. Luka let his teammates down, not the other way around.

(To be clear, I think it's a tough matchup for the Mavs and a very tough one for Luka, because Horford can guard him better than most bigs can.)
As you know, this team struggles with quick, explosive off the dribble guys.

Luka is incredible offensively, but quick he is not.
 

Euclis20

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This matches my postgame thoughts that Tatum continually made the right reads and the right plays when he had the ball in his hand. He had a great game despite the numbers not being what we tend to expect from him.
Other than the excessive turnovers (how many times did he just dribble the ball away or flip an odd pass out of bounds?), that was a great Tatum game.
 

RedOctober3829

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Yup. Luka let his teammates down, not the other way around.

(To be clear, I think it's a tough matchup for the Mavs and a very tough one for Luka, because Horford can guard him better than most bigs can.)
Dallas is a great matchup for the Celtics. They have multiple wings and Horford to throw at Luka. Their bigs match up well with Washington and Gafford. They switch everything so Luka can't really hunt anyone unless you want to post up Pritchard when he's in the game and even then PP is strong and they'll throw a double at that(and they rotate back so fast). Offensively, Luka and Kyrie can't guard anyone on the Celtics.
 

TomRicardo

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Mavs have Luka, who we've been told is basically Peak Lebron with a 3 point shot. We're fucked.
I am trying to think of a historical comparison to Luka. I know people say Bird but there is zero chance Bird would play with such low energy/impact on defense.