NBA Cup 2024 discussion & gamethread: It's On. We'll Watch.
- Thread starter InstaFace
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Taking my kids to the Cavs-Hawks game on Friday afternoon. Pumped. Expect to see Cleveland put a hurting on the Hawks.
well, the thing that doesn’t quite translate is the lack of a true pyramid in American hoops. The real sizzle in soccer cups is when the big boys have to play minnows. For those unfamiliar with the English FA Cup, probably the best known of these, the bottom tiers of the pyramid play off first to send a certain number of clubs into the cup proper, but once that occurs the draws are random, no seeding at all- two balls out of the sorting hat play each other, first ball is the home side. (The semis and final are at Wembley).
So that’s how you can get Marine FC, an eighth tier side in a northern seaside town, with volunteer coaches and a roster of teachers and construction workers, a ground seating less than 1,000, with numbers painted on the bleachers corresponding to the address of the adjacent house (so you know which doorbell to ring if you have to retrieve the game ball), hosting Tottenham Hotspur, one of the Premier League’s biggest and richest clubs.
https://www.the-independent.com/sport/football/fa-cup-third-round-marine-tottenham-mourinho-b2473334.html
I watched the game. Spurs won 5-0, of course, and sat a couple of stars, but played most of its starting lineup. Marine actually had the first real chance- dude let fly with a shot from 50 yards out that the Spurs keeper did not get to, and it banged off the crossbar. Two inches lower and Marine would have been up on Spurs 1-0 in the FA Cup and the world would have gone absolutely apeshit.
Cup lore is littered with giant killings, similar to March Madness but the disparities in talent between the top tier and the lowers is so vast that the upsets are even more implausible. And nothing beats the atmosphere of a lower tier club in a tiny stadium hosting one of the best and most famous sides in the world.
to do the cup idea right you’d have to open it to the “lower tiers” G-League, NCAA, and even rec leagues. You’d see some shit when the Celtics had to go on the road and win at Illinois Wesleyan, or the 8th Precinct team in the El Paso Police Athletic League, or the Muskegon YMCA. Of course most of these would be blowouts, but in a small town some night, with a court with dead spots, that might not even be 94 feet, and a packed crowd of 750 people screaming their heads off in a blazing-hot (or freezing) gym….
people would watch that shit. That’s the magic of the Cup.
our sports just aren’t set up that way though. So you get Pacers-Wizards but with fancy floors and [complicated standings stuff]. Bette then Pacers-Wizards without all that, I guess.
I find myself rooting for the CAVs to beat the HAWKs, which is against the Celtic's long-term interests
I guess this means the CUP works
I guess this means the CUP works
My head says we should be rooting for the Cavs, but my heart is definitely rooting for the Hawks. I'll prefer to think of this game as win-win.
Cleveland was always going to regress this year when they stopped shooting 42% or whatever from 3. It's too bad that had to happen exactly now.
I was watching the 2nd quarter and they were just bricking quality look after quality look.
win-win feels about right
Just win against the Bulls and root for the Magic versus the Knicks
They don't have anybody on the roster bad enough to make it worth the effort, at least not among guys getting regular minutes (not compared to Drummond).
And yeah, nobody should take the Cavs seriously. The only reason no one dings Donovan Mitchell for failing to make the conference finals even once in 7 trips to the playoffs is because no one thinks he's good enough as a lead option to have gotten that far. And they're right. 5-23 today for just 12 points, while at the same time Atlanta could barely slow down Garland and Mobley (a combined 21-36 for 53 points).
No. Head to head is tiebreaker.
Chance for wild card, but need big win and some help.
We should be rooting for Orlando (2-0 and +37) to beat the Knicks (3-0 and +15), and for Milwaukee (3-0 and +29) to beat Detroit (2-0 and +4). Boston is currently +14 so if Orlando and Milwaukee win, it's not possible for the Knicks to have a better point differential than Boston, and we'll have a major edge over Detroit.
Knicks will be favored against the Magic since they’re playing at New York. We need to root for the Nets to beat the Magic tonight or at least not lose big. If Magic wins by only 1 tonight against the Nets but Knicks beats the Magic by 1 on Tuesday, then Magic would have a diff of +37. Celtics would need to beat the Bulls by 24 to top that. Of course, if the Magic beats the Nets by say 14, then the Celtics would need to win by 37 tonight. Luckily, the Magic Nets game is 30 minutes earlier so the Celtics should have a good idea of how big of a margin they need to ensure a Knicks win against the Magic doesn’t screw them.
That’s why the Celtics should win by 15+ tonight (favored by 12) to guarantee it.
Further, I can’t believe I:
- watched a horrific Cavs @ Hawks 2:30 pm game today from start to ginihs
- was excited to do so starting at nokn
- did it over an NFL game
- Am very excited rooting for a Celtics 20 point win tonight in a generally meaningless late Nov game vs the hapless Bulls.
All because of the Cup. Goddamn you Adam Silver.
- watched a horrific Cavs @ Hawks 2:30 pm game today from start to ginihs
- was excited to do so starting at nokn
- did it over an NFL game
- Am very excited rooting for a Celtics 20 point win tonight in a generally meaningless late Nov game vs the hapless Bulls.
All because of the Cup. Goddamn you Adam Silver.
15 guarantees nothing. Celtics need to win by 24 plus whatever Magic beats the Nets by. If Magic loses, then winning by 15+ is probably “safe” assuming Knicks don’t beat the Magic by 30.
Boston clinches a spot in the Knockout Rounds as the East Wild Card if:
1. BOS wins by 16 or more points in regulation + DET loss + ORL loss
2. BOS wins by 16 or more points in regulation + DET loss + BOS ends night better point differential than ORL
3. BOS wins by 16 or more points in regulation + ORL loss + BOS ends night with better point differential than DET
4. BOS wins by 16 or more points in regulation + BOS ends night with better point differential than DET and ORL
Yeah. Absent a 30 point beatdown on Chicago, it will take a lot of help to get past Orlando.
So:
Boston clinches a spot in the Knockout Rounds as the East Wild Card if:
1. BOS wins by 16 or more points in regulation + DET loss + ORL loss
2. BOS wins by 16 or more points in regulation + DET loss + BOS ends night better point differential than ORL
3. BOS wins by 16 or more points in regulation + ORL loss + BOS ends night with better point differential than DET
4. BOS wins by 16 or more points in regulation + BOS ends night with better point differential than DET and ORL.
EMIRATE?
Sorry had to.
Boston clinches a spot in the Knockout Rounds as the East Wild Card if:
1. BOS wins by 16 or more points in regulation + DET loss + ORL loss
2. BOS wins by 16 or more points in regulation + DET loss + BOS ends night better point differential than ORL
3. BOS wins by 16 or more points in regulation + ORL loss + BOS ends night with better point differential than DET
4. BOS wins by 16 or more points in regulation + BOS ends night with better point differential than DET and ORL.
EMIRATE?
Sorry had to.
With so little margin for error, Cup games shouldn’t be in back to backs. The Hawks loss was on a back to back and you deploy resources differently on back to backs.
Orlando winning by so much makes things relatively simple, if frustratingly out of our control:
View: https://twitter.com/SeanGrandePBP/status/1862700346071523703
That Hauser 3 might end up meaning something.
View: https://twitter.com/SeanGrandePBP/status/1862700346071523703
That Hauser 3 might end up meaning something.
Posted in the game thread, but if two teams tie in point differential, the third tiebreaker is total points scored in Cup games. Unless Detroit scores 142 or Milwaukee scores 148, Boston would win the third tiebreaker. So, I think it's Milwaukee by 5 or Detroit by 6.
I see this as a win-win, honestly. Adam Silver gave you a better product, which is all you needed because watching the NFL is often a chore (although the game today was a good one).
And if you want some more day-drinking coming up, may I recommend the US Women's National Team @ England in Wembley, tomorrow at noon? Certainly can tide one over till Sunday's marquee matchup. Unless you've got a dog in the fight for tOSU-Michigan or South Carolina - Clemson, I suppose.
also, good christ, the Pacers couldn't even beat Detroit? My high praise for them in the offseason looks foolish now, the Rick Carlisle pixie dust truly is gone with the wind.
2nd this. I liked Indy a lot coming into the season. They still have time. Maybe Hali should stop screwing around with podcasting.
Credit to Detroit basketball! The Cade Jade Brigade (with Duren, Holland & Ausear) has a nice future.
Beasley was a smart off-season signing
I do not believe for one second that The Cup was the only reason you watched that game. Tell me I’m wrong.
West Group A contains Houston, Minnesota, Clippers, Sacramento and Portland. How many people would have had Portland advancing out of that group? Not many, I'd wager. And yet they're in a position to do so, if they blow out the Clippers in Inglewood on Tuesday, and a few other points differentials go their way.
I said this prior to the year....this format is designed for us to see more Indiana's of last year than a Celtics/OKC Final. Looking like Portland and Atlanta are last years Pacers.
It's funny because I think the 2024 Pacers were the more recent version of the 2021 Hawks. Full circle.
Honestly, going 3-1 in the group stage but not advancing to the knockout stage is kinda the best possible outcome long-term, isn't it? By not advancing, they're going to get to play two games against other teams who didn't advance, which should be easier matchups than the teams they'd play in Vegas. And they also avoid the chance of having to play a 83rd regular season game. Save all the bullets for the real playoffs.
Yes, but it also exposes some silly flaws in the way this is structured. Unless you are really paying attention it's impossible to follow this group round play and qualifying. Everything is too conditional. I get there's rational logic to the format but the Cup will fail if the best teams aren't in it year after year. Fans can handle an upstart or two but not if they are the majority of the qualifying field.
Majority of the qualifying field seems like a stretch.
Right now it's looking like Rockets, Suns, Warriors, Thunder/Mavs/Blazers/Spurs and Knicks/Magic, Bucks/Pistons, Hawks/Celtics — who are the best teams that aren't going to get a crack at Vegas? Maybe the Nuggets (who we're learning aren't that great this year) and definitely the Cavs. If the Cavs and Cs both miss out, you'd still be left with Knicks, Magic, Bucks/Pistons, Hawks, which is most of the rest of the interesting teams in the East.
I find the "impossible to follow" criticism baffling. It's really not that hard to follow point differential and head-to-head matchups. I think the "have to win by at least 24" or whatever to be pretty entertaining, personally. Completely changes the end-game dynamics.
Wait, this isn’t true for the non final games right? The schedule is set, you just play the post knockout games against the teams when they would naturally be in your schedule. I thought there were no TBD opponents prior to the final game, and not advancing doesn’t adjust your schedule or future opponents. Is that wrong?
It’s easy to follow for people who are already really invested in the sport. It’s not easy to follow for average fans who are not day to day with this stuff. Like, you’re spelling out a scenario where potentially the two best teams thus far this season won’t even make the “quarterfinals” of this tournament - how’s a person who’s not on message boards, not listening to podcasts, not a nightly viewer supposed to get invested in the exercise when sub .500 teams are leading their “groups” and the best teams are knocked out?
Well, it would make a certain sense if the tiebreakers were just regular season record instead of point differential, but that would be worlds colliding
It’s incongruous to say we need 82 games to decide who is worthy of making the playoffs and then seven game playoff series to see who is worthy of advancing round by round until we declare a champion, but let’s have a second tournament with four games to get into a knockout tournament and point differential tiebreakers and then claim it is somehow important.
This is more like the Ft Myers Mayor’s Cup then an actual championship.
Correct, it is far closer to the former than the latter. Aside from your use of "then".
I guess those are benefits, but the Cs are getting a top 2-3 seed on autopilot this year, so I don't care much about regular season wins. Would rather see them playing more fun IST games against good teams.
I'm not sure there is even a way to make the group stage advancement rules, easy to follow, relatively fair to all involved, and largely separate from the regular season. What the general NBA public has trouble following after 1-2 years might seem exceedingly obvious to anyone who cares by years 5 and 6, a lot of this stuff will just be picked up over time through osmosis.
For the QF and the SF, you play (in-conference) opponents who you would have played at some point in the regular season, and your Cup game replaced a future game you would have had against them. Those dates are TBD for everyone, and they fill in the last two games as the format dictates. So you don't have additional games against good or bad teams, just the dates of your matchups change.