NBA Accounting: S&T, TPE, and Gordon

bankshot1

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To our resident NBA capologists and trade mavens, (which I am not) assuming Danny and his golf buddy in Charlotte are still kicking around a S&T, how do you value it from Ainge's perspective?

Or from MJ's?

MJs position seems easier to grasp, if he's amenable its found money, but he can squeeze Danny as hard as he wants for as much as he can get.

But what's reasonable?

Or just slightly unreasonable?

if I have a rough understand of the TPE, (which is not a given-I think NBA accounting is close to incomprehensible) what's reasonable value of a 1 year option to spend an additional $20-$30 million plus other trade consideration for a another player, and also keeping the option to stay above the cap for as long as you desire?

Would the Celts give up a lottery protected 1 (its probably going to be bottom 10 pick in '21) for that option or is that a gross overpay?

Help Euro step me through NBA accounting and how its applies to our recently gone but not forgotten Gordon
 

lovegtm

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To our resident NBA capologists and trade mavens, (which I am not) assuming Danny and his golf buddy in Charlotte are still kicking around a S&T, how do you value it from Ainge's perspective?

Or from MJ's?

MJs position seems easier to grasp, if he's amenable its found money, but he can squeeze Danny as hard as he wants for as much as he can get.

But what's reasonable?

Or just slightly unreasonable?

if I have a rough understand of the TPE, (which is not a given-I think NBA accounting is close to incomprehensible) what's reasonable value of a 1 year option to spend an additional $20-$30 million plus other trade consideration for a another player, and also keeping the option to stay above the cap for as long as you desire?

Would the Celts give up a lottery protected 1 (its probably going to be bottom 10 pick in '21) for that option or is that a gross overpay?

Help Euro step me through NBA accounting and how its applies to our recently gone but not forgotten Gordon
A 1 would be a massive overpay. The TPE is either going to let you bring in some short-term help, or else trade for a substantial asset. If the latter, you're going to be attaching assets to that too, so adding an extra 1st rounder is a substantial cost.

The Celtics just facilitated an S&T for the Hornets (Rozier) last year, and took a middling 2nd rounder as the return.

Jordan/Kupchak can squeeze, but Danny's BATNA is a decent amount of loose salary between Theis/TT/TL guys brought in later with the smaller TPEs. The media always wants to catch Ainge with his pants down, but it's a totally fine situation. Charlotte, on the other hand, if they don't play ball, is stuck with Gordon Hayward taking up $39M of cap space for 3 years.
 

nighthob

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Kupchak and Ainge have had a good working relationship. Last year Kupchak wanted Rozier as a Walker replacement, and Boston arranged the two way sign & trade, which resulted in Rozier's overpayment. But that certainly wasn't Ainge's fault. The price then was a swap of second round picks, I imagine that something similar happens this time around. However, Charlotte wants to expand the deal slightly (from what I've read Rozier and Hayward don't get along, so the Hornets are looking to move Rozier as part of this). If Boston were taking T-Ro back (as Kemba insurance) I imagine it would be with draft pick compensation.
 

Cellar-Door

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To our resident NBA capologists and trade mavens, (which I am not) assuming Danny and his golf buddy in Charlotte are still kicking around a S&T, how do you value it from Ainge's perspective?

Or from MJ's?

MJs position seems easier to grasp, if he's amenable its found money, but he can squeeze Danny as hard as he wants for as much as he can get.

But what's reasonable?

Or just slightly unreasonable?

if I have a rough understand of the TPE, (which is not a given-I think NBA accounting is close to incomprehensible) what's reasonable value of a 1 year option to spend an additional $20-$30 million plus other trade consideration for a another player, and also keeping the option to stay above the cap for as long as you desire?

Would the Celts give up a lottery protected 1 (its probably going to be bottom 10 pick in '21) for that option or is that a gross overpay?

Help Euro step me through NBA accounting and how its applies to our recently gone but not forgotten Gordon
So from Charlotte's perspective I think there are two considerations in making Hayward a sign and trade:
1. Can we get a 3rd team to eat salary so we don't have to put 9M on 2021-22 and 2022-23 from stretching Batum?
2. If we can't, what do we want from Boston to make this happen?

If it's 2, I think the value is usually around a 2nd, maybe 2nd and a player. I don't think Charlotte wants Javonte Green or Edwards. I lean towards it ending up a two 2nds. I can't see a 1st.

As to the TPE itself... it's valuable in the sense that it gets you out of a salary match in a trade, but that's about it. It doesn't in itself keep you above the cap.

I don't think the vaguely rumored Rozier thing makes any sense. The Celtics don't want Rozier at that contract, especially if they aren't going to trade away Kemba. And it's tough to work under the hard cap.
 

lovegtm

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I wonder whether maybe they do want Rozier. He shot 40% from 3 last year on 7 attempts/36, and he’s a really good defender when engaged.

His contract is bad but declining, so only 17M when Tatum’s deal kicks in, making it also good for trades. It comes off the books at the same time Smart gets paid.

If they think Kemba’s knee is screwed, and someone is offering any kind of assets for him, I’d think hard about this, as crazy as it sounds. If they think Kemba’s knee can be managed, I don’t touch Rozier.
 

JCizzle

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Russillo and Bobby Marks have been emphasizing for the past few days that TPEs sound great in theory, but are rarely used. I think the stat was that 75% have gone unused in recent years and not many of the used TPEs have been for worthwhile acquisitions. Better than nothing I guess, but not by much. I wouldn't want to give them anything of real value for it.
 

Cellar-Door

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Russillo and Bobby Marks have been emphasizing for the past few days that TPEs sound great in theory, but are rarely used. I think the stat was that 75% have gone unused in recent years and not many of the used TPEs have been for worthwhile acquisitions. Better than nothing I guess, but not by much. I wouldn't want to give them anything of real value for it.
Remember though that there are TONS of TPEs, and most of them are small. I can't think of the last time a good team had a TPE over 10M that they didn't use. I mean, if we got a TPE for Hayward, I would expect us to only use that one of the 3 we'd have. And OKC probably has about 10 on the books right now of various sizes, they probably only take on salary in 1 or two of those max
 

nighthob

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I wonder whether maybe they do want Rozier. He shot 40% from 3 last year on 7 attempts/36, and he’s a really good defender when engaged.

His contract is bad but declining, so only 17M when Tatum’s deal kicks in, making it also good for trades. It comes off the books at the same time Smart gets paid.

If they think Kemba’s knee is screwed, and someone is offering any kind of assets for him, I’d think hard about this, as crazy as it sounds. If they think Kemba’s knee can be managed, I don’t touch Rozier.
That was the only reason I even considered it. I know that Rose wants to make a splash in New York, and he got shut out in free agency (since no one trusts that he's really the guy in charge there). So Kemba, if he clears medicals, might be a real option for him. So a three way where Hayward ends up in Charlotte, Kemba in Madison Square Garden and Rozier in Boston to be the scoring guard that dribbles the ball upfloor might not be the worst result in the world. At least next year with Smart in the starting lineup.
 

Marbleheader

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I don't think Kemba is going anywhere. By all accounts Tatum loves the guy and dumping an asset when value is low is usually not the best decision. I'd rather roll the dice on Kemba than take on Rozier.
 

BaseballJones

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It would take us about 2 games of Rozier before we pined for the days of Kemba. This isn't a real conversation.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Remember though that there are TONS of TPEs, and most of them are small. I can't think of the last time a good team had a TPE over 10M that they didn't use. I mean, if we got a TPE for Hayward, I would expect us to only use that one of the 3 we'd have. And OKC probably has about 10 on the books right now of various sizes, they probably only take on salary in 1 or two of those max
Agreed, and the Celtics are likely running under their budget as well---plus are a contender. They pretty much have all of the characteristics that suggest you might use the TPE and get value from it. Now, I do think there's still complexity and I wouldn't trade a 1st to get it, but there is some value there in my mind
 

nighthob

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People need to get over Contract Year Rozier on the Kyreltics. He wasn't bad for Charlotte last year. The 2019 Celtics were just a toxic team thanks to its leader.

My dream, however, is that Charlotte keeps Rozier and manages to become part of a three way deal for Harden where they trade Graham and some firsts for Irving. That clubhouse would be tonnes of fun.
 

Cellar-Door

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People need to get over Contract Year Rozier on the Kyreltics. He wasn't bad for Charlotte last year. The 2019 Celtics were just a toxic team thanks to its leader.

My dream, however, is that Charlotte keeps Rozier and manages to become part of a three way deal for Harden where they trade Graham and some firsts for Irving. That clubhouse would be tonnes of fun.
My problem with Rozier isn't that he's bad, he's not, he's a decent if overpaid player, it's that I don't see how he fits unless Kemba is moved, and I don't see how you stay under the apron.
 

Cellar-Door

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So going a bit off track, but I wasn't sure a better thread for it.....

If we get the TPE, I wonder if Danny holds it for a possible S&T after the season.

The list of FAs is pretty great (I took out clearly unavailable for 30M of less guys in LeBron, Giannis, Kawhi, Paul George and Beal also took out 34+)

Possibly available for less than $30M depending how this year goes:
Jrue, Gobert, Oladipo, Blake, Aldridge, DeRozan, Porter, Markanen, Isaac, Collins, Graham,

Almost ccertainly under $30M:
Conley, Drummond, Fournier, Schroeder, Fultz, Ball, Kennard, Allen, Kuzma, Anunoby, Robinson

That's a lot of talent in the S&T possibility pool, not to mention guys who might get traded to open space for them, or by teams looking for picks.
 

mcpickl

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Remember though that there are TONS of TPEs, and most of them are small. I can't think of the last time a good team had a TPE over 10M that they didn't use. I mean, if we got a TPE for Hayward, I would expect us to only use that one of the 3 we'd have. And OKC probably has about 10 on the books right now of various sizes, they probably only take on salary in 1 or two of those max
Agreed on this. OKC currently has three TPEs that are unusable since they are for less than the NBA minimum salary.

Also, more often than not, teams that have some of the bigger exceptions are rebuilding teams, since they are the team that sent out more salary than the recieved. Rebuilders would be less likely than a good team to try to add salary into a TPE, unless they were taking on a bad salary to add an asset(hi again OKC)

At an absolute minimum, even if a Hayward/Charlotte sign and trade doesn't get expanded to a three team deal, giving up what would likely be a second round pick would be well worth it just to give Boston the option to add salary to their roster without having to send any out.
 

nighthob

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My problem with Rozier isn't that he's bad, he's not, he's a decent if overpaid player, it's that I don't see how he fits unless Kemba is moved, and I don't see how you stay under the apron.
Working from the rumors about Boston trying to move on from Walker and Charlotte wanting to move Rozier out of the clubhouse with Hayward coming in then a three way with the Knicks would generate an even larger TPE. But as a Houston fan, if Harden is forcing his way to Brooklyn, then I want to see Kyrie end up in Charlotte with Gordo and T-Ro. Because that Hornets squad would be so toxic that those firsts would be solid gold.
 

JakeRae

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So going a bit off track, but I wasn't sure a better thread for it.....

If we get the TPE, I wonder if Danny holds it for a possible S&T after the season.

The list of FAs is pretty great (I took out clearly unavailable for 30M of less guys in LeBron, Giannis, Kawhi, Paul George and Beal also took out 34+)

Possibly available for less than $30M depending how this year goes:
Jrue, Gobert, Oladipo, Blake, Aldridge, DeRozan, Porter, Markanen, Isaac, Collins, Graham,

Almost ccertainly under $30M:
Conley, Drummond, Fournier, Schroeder, Fultz, Ball, Kennard, Allen, Kuzma, Anunoby, Robinson

That's a lot of talent in the S&T possibility pool, not to mention guys who might get traded to open space for them, or by teams looking for picks.
A sign and trade to take on significant salary would be tough. Assuming Tatum earns the 30% max, the Celtics are going to be pushing against the tax, and thus close to the apron, before the draft and free agency. A sign and trade would hard cap them, which would be almost impossible if they are adding salary through it. A regular trade doesn’t have that effect, so they could use a TPE to add salary and blow through the tax, but the trade would need to be for a player already under contract.
 

Cellar-Door

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A sign and trade to take on significant salary would be tough. Assuming Tatum earns the 30% max, the Celtics are going to be pushing against the tax, and thus close to the apron, before the draft and free agency. A sign and trade would hard cap them, which would be almost impossible if they are adding salary through it. A regular trade doesn’t have that effect, so they could use a TPE to add salary and blow through the tax, but the trade would need to be for a player already under contract.
I would guess that if they are going after some of those players they would be moving salary, but yeah, I was looking at it without Thompson. Without him it wouldn't be hard to get under the tax for like a 13-20M a year player. With him it's harder, need to move out him and let Theis go.

Even still, it opens up S&T options by not having to precisely match. So you can move someone like Smart out, and bring in a higher paid player.
 

Pablo's TB Lover

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Almost ccertainly under $30M:
Conley, Drummond, Fournier, Schroeder, Fultz, Ball, Kennard, Allen, Kuzma, Anunoby, Robinson
How delicious would that be to bring the #1 pick back "home". Fultz as your driving guard with Kemba spotting up and shooting as his driving skills diminish a bit due to age/injuries. That's making some lemonade.
 

Cellar-Door

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Agreed on this. OKC currently has three TPEs that are unusable since they are for less than the NBA minimum salary.

Also, more often than not, teams that have some of the bigger exceptions are rebuilding teams, since they are the team that sent out more salary than the recieved. Rebuilders would be less likely than a good team to try to add salary into a TPE, unless they were taking on a bad salary to add an asset(hi again OKC)

At an absolute minimum, even if a Hayward/Charlotte sign and trade doesn't get expanded to a three team deal, giving up what would likely be a second round pick would be well worth it just to give Boston the option to add salary to their roster without having to send any out.
Word is they are using at least 1..... The CP3 TPE will be used to absorb Horford.
To replace it they made the Gallo signing a S&T.... with a top 55 protected 2nd coming back.
 

mcpickl

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Word is they are using at least 1..... The CP3 TPE will be used to absorb Horford.
To replace it they made the Gallo signing a S&T.... with a top 55 protected 2nd coming back.
The Chris Paul TPE wasn't that big, they took Rubio and Oubre back in that trade
Horford will be coming back in the Steven Adams TPE

The Thunder are the most interesting team in a Hayward to Charlotte sign and trade tho.

That Gallo TPE is enough to take on either Rozier or Zeller in a 3 way trade, they will also eventually have one that would've been big enough to take back Zeller but not Rozier when they complete the Ariza/James Johnson swap.(Assuming Ariza goes into the Oubre TPE)

This shit is too complicated.

I suspect we'll be hearing about the Hayward sign and trade soon now that OKC has a TPE big enough to help out. I think it's much more likely Rozier heads to OKC now, rather than Zeller, since they wouldn't need the huge Gallo TPE for Zeller.
 

Jimbodandy

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The Chris Paul TPE wasn't that big, they took Rubio and Oubre back in that trade
Horford will be coming back in the Steven Adams TPE

The Thunder are the most interesting team in a Hayward to Charlotte sign and trade tho.

That Gallo TPE is enough to take on either Rozier or Zeller in a 3 way trade, they will also eventually have one that would've been big enough to take back Zeller but not Rozier when they complete the Ariza/James Johnson swap.(Assuming Ariza goes into the Oubre TPE)

This shit is too complicated.

I suspect we'll be hearing about the Hayward sign and trade soon now that OKC has a TPE big enough to help out. I think it's much more likely Rozier heads to OKC now, rather than Zeller, since they wouldn't need the huge Gallo TPE for Zeller.
Just want to say thanks to you and the other capologists/CBA experts in here. This is great stuff.
 

Jimbodandy

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Presti is a savant, but there is no way that Boston sends a first for a TPE. And I can't imagine that anyone in Charlotte wants to staple a first to Batum for the privilege of giving Hayward 4×30.

Edit: and they don't need to move Batum anyway. They can still stretch
 

Cellar-Door

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Presti is a savant, but there is no way that Boston sends a first for a TPE. And I can't imagine that anyone in Charlotte wants to staple a first to Batum for the privilege of giving Hayward 4×30.

Edit: and they don't need to move Batum anyway. They can still stretch
Yeah, I bet this ends up being several 2nds. switching around, maybe 2 seconds out for Boston, one to each team, then Atlanta sends the worse of their own 2nd and the one Boston sent to OKC.
 

lovegtm

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If Ainge pulls this off, he killed the offseason. My only real question mark is Pritchard, so I guess we’ll see how that goes.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Yeah, I bet this ends up being several 2nds. switching around, maybe 2 seconds out for Boston, one to each team, then Atlanta sends the worse of their own 2nd and the one Boston sent to OKC.
The genius isn't in the return. Its that a GM of a small market team who has essentially been forced to sell off their best players for a decade running still manages to keep his club relevant either competitively or as a way to use their situation to create assets. In isolation, those seconds aren't worth a lot but its another bit of currency that Presti has in reserve if the opportunity to pounce arises. Thunder fans may not be very bullish on the club's chances this upcoming season but they have a lot of avenues to use for improvement going forward.