NBA 2019-2020 Bold Predictions

[RedOctober3829]

Celtics predictions
--50 wins
--3rd in East
--Out in 2nd round
--Kemba makes 3rd team All NBA
--Tatum makes All-Star team
--Edwards All Rookie
--Brown averages nearly a double-double
--They trade for a big

 

[benhogan]

Dumb predictions? entering my wheelhouse...feel free to fire your arrows early folks, remember you can only haze me later if you haze me now

1. Carson Edwards finishes top 3 in ROY

2. China situation worsens and the NBA salary cap takes a hit

3. Warriors don't make the playoffs. Russell and Kerr clash. Steph is worn down to a nub. They raise the white flag early and tell Klay to come back next season healthy. They end up with the #1 pick in the draft and a new dynasty begins.

4. Mavs make the playoffs. Team Europa will be the early talk of the NBA

5. Maine Red Claws go undefeated. Tremont Waters G-League MVP (is there such a thing?)

6. a sub .500 team in the East makes the playoffs

7. Daniel Theis counting numbers will stink but he'll be a valued role player with the starting unit

8. Marcus Morris Jr MaMo leads the league in fights and technical fouls. NYC loves his feistiness, and the Knicks resign him to a multi-year deal. He still won't play help defense.

9. Kyrie Irving plays fewer games than Zion, even after surgery

10. Aron Baynes gets a standing ovation upon his return to the Garden

11. legitimate Gordon Hayward trade rumors surface this season

#3 is a lock. One down, ten to go

Little did I know Steph would actually have a nub for a left hand with it ensconced in a cast for 3 months...

 

[BaseballJones]

With Klay out for the year and Steph out for most of it, the Warriors should be in full tank mode. By that I simply mean...let the young'uns play and if they lose, they lose. And they will lose if they adopt that strategy. Let Draymond rest often - the dude has huge miles on him in a relatively short career so far. Trade away what they can at the deadline, get a high draft slot, have lots of cap space (if they can achieve that), and gear up for 2020-21.

 

[lovegtm]

Philly’s shooting/spacing doesn’t work and there are calls to break up the team/trade Simmons, even as they’re winning games on the strength of stifling D.

Feeling decent about this. Simmons and Embiid are individually pretty easy guys to build around, but I just don't buy them together, especially without Reddick's lightning release to open up space.

 

[benhogan]

Feeling decent about this. Simmons and Embiid are individually pretty easy guys to build around, but I just don't buy them together, especially without Reddick's lightning release to open up space.

Will you sign off on this?

Philly ends up disappointing this season.
Sixers Fire Brett Brown at the end seasons end
Jay Wright hired.
The Sixers deal Ben Simmons to the GSW for DLo, picks, Paschall, Spellman and any other ex-Wildcats they can dig up.

 

[lovegtm]

Will you sign off on this?

Philly ends up disappointing this season.
Sixers Fire Brett Brown at the end seasons end
Jay Wright hired.
The Sixers deal Ben Simmons to the GSW for DLo, picks, Paschall, Spellman and any other ex-Wildcats they can dig up.

I know better than to sign off on specific trades I definitely think Philly will disappoint--I don't think that as constructed they can score with MIL, Boston, or Toronto.

I do think that Simmons for a shooting shot creator makes a ton of sense. Lillard makes the most sense if they want to go win-now, and Portland could easily sell a rebuild around him. But as a GM, I'd throw up in my mouth trading someone as good and young as Simmons for a guy who will be 30 then, so I don't think that happens.

Brett Brown really got a raw deal if he gets fired. I think he's a solid coach who has done well with a lot of misfit toys.

 

[benhogan]

I know better than to sign off on specific trades I definitely think Philly will disappoint--I don't think that as constructed they can score with MIL, Boston, or Toronto.

I do think that Simmons for a shooting shot creator makes a ton of sense. Lillard makes the most sense if they want to go win-now, and Portland could easily sell a rebuild around him. But as a GM, I'd throw up in my mouth trading someone as good and young as Simmons for a guy who will be 30 then, so I don't think that happens.

Brett Brown really got a raw deal if he gets fired. I think he's a solid coach who has done well with a lot of misfit toys.

D'Angelo Russell, 23, is the same age as Ben Simmons?

NM you meant Lillard

 

[lovegtm]

D'Angelo Russell, 23, is the same age as Ben Simmons?

NM you meant Lillard

If GS throws in the high lottery pick they're getting this year, that trade actually becomes pretty interesting. Simmons+Steph+Klay+Dray is terrifying, and Philly actually gets OK value back.

 

[benhogan]

If GS throws in the high lottery pick they're getting this year, that trade actually becomes pretty interesting. Simmons+Steph+Klay+Dray is terrifying, and Philly actually gets OK value back.

Philly will go head over heels for D.Lo's hollow 26ppg average. Just like they bought large into an overrated Tobias Harris

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I’m on board for fading the Sixers this year for many of the reasons we’ve discussed but to be fair they weren’t given too many favors with this brutal early season scheduling while we have been the beneficiary of good scheduling on the other end. These Raptors though......just damn!!!

Pretty happy with my predictions on previous page and even happier that the last two are so far wrong which overall is good for humanity.

 

[nighthob]

I know better than to sign off on specific trades I definitely think Philly will disappoint--I don't think that as constructed they can score with MIL, Boston, or Toronto.

I do think that Simmons for a shooting shot creator makes a ton of sense. Lillard makes the most sense if they want to go win-now, and Portland could easily sell a rebuild around him. But as a GM, I'd throw up in my mouth trading someone as good and young as Simmons for a guy who will be 30 then, so I don't think that happens.

Brett Brown really got a raw deal if he gets fired. I think he's a solid coach who has done well with a lot of misfit toys.

Unless the Warriors landed the first pick, there's no way that Philly would sell them Simmons for Russell anyway. If Portland continues struggling this year, I suppose they could build something around McCollum and #1 for Simmons, because there are some really good combo guards at the top of the draft pool. But Philly is bound and determined to go Embiid/Simmons. So it's a moot point. While Horford's excellent for the clubhouse, he does little for the offensive issues plaguing them.

 

[lovegtm]

Unless the Warriors landed the first pick, there's no way that Philly would sell them Simmons for Russell anyway. If Portland continues struggling this year, I suppose they could build something around McCollum and #1 for Simmons, because there are some really good combo guards at the top of the draft pool. But Philly is bound and determined to go Embiid/Simmons. So it's a moot point. While Horford's excellent for the clubhouse, he does little for the offensive issues plaguing them.

There’s no question that they’re bound and determined for now, and also no question that Simmons and Embiid are really good. Hell, without 4 bounces they could have won the title last year (with Reddick+Butler).

But if they struggle through the season and disappoint, I think a lot of unthinkable things will be on the table. And the Horford and Harris contracts don’t give them much else to work with...

 

[benhogan]

I’m on board for fading the Sixers this year for many of the reasons we’ve discussed but to be fair they weren’t given too many favors with this brutal early season scheduling while we have been the beneficiary of good scheduling on the other end. These Raptors though......just damn!!!

Pretty happy with my predictions on previous page and even happier that the last two are so far wrong which overall is good for humanity.

hopefully, you and lovegtm are on to something here with the 76ers

Your season over/under from the betting page are doing well if I recall correctly? Orlando win was really nice last night. Houston looks really smart (which I questioned).

 

[benhogan]

But if they struggle through the season and disappoint, I think a lot of unthinkable things will be on the table. And the Horford and Harris contracts don’t give them much else to work with...

We just know the Knicks will bring home Tobias Harris, and give the 76ers a pass on that max deal

Don't ever underestimate the Knicks stupidity.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

hopefully, you and lovegtm are on to something here with the 76ers

Your season over/under from the betting page are doing well if I recall correctly? Orlando win was really nice last night. Houston looks really smart (which I questioned).

So far so good for sure. The Magic are one of the few off to bad starts. I have around 15 different individual plays with fading the Blazers accounting for nearly 40% of my investment. So much is on them falling off a cliff this year.

 

[nighthob]

We just know the Knicks will bring home Tobias Harris, and give the 76ers a pass on that max deal

Don't ever underestimate the Knicks stupidity.

That’s OK, they’ll just use the TPE to trade for Andrew Wiggins.

 

[benhogan]

That’s OK, they’ll just use the TPE to trade for Andrew Wiggins.

Harris, Wiggins, Paul, Wall all in play for the Knicks

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

There’s no question that they’re bound and determined for now, and also no question that Simmons and Embiid are really good. Hell, without 4 bounces they could have won the title last year (with Reddick+Butler).

But if they struggle through the season and disappoint, I think a lot of unthinkable things will be on the table. And the Horford and Harris contracts don’t give them much else to work with...

This article from yahoo puts some numbers on wht everyone here has been thinking w.r.t. 76ers:
http://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nba/whats-wrong-with-the-76ers/ar-BBWLB91?ocid=ientp

 

[nighthob]

Harris, Wiggins, Paul, Wall all in play for the Knicks

They can’t have all of them, but they’ll go all in on Harris and Wall for their Big Three.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

This article from yahoo puts some numbers on wht everyone here has been thinking w.r.t. 76ers:
http://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nba/whats-wrong-with-the-76ers/ar-BBWLB91?ocid=ientp

I think people are overreacting even though I never felt they were the favorites in the East. NBA teams lose games on long road trips......this isn’t breaking news.

 

[lovegtm]

I think people are overreacting even though I never felt they were the favorites in the East. NBA teams lose games on long road trips......this isn’t breaking news.

Yeah I want to be clear:
1. I think the Sixers are a good team and will win a lot of games. Everyone loses long road trip games—the regular season is a grind without much payoff.
2. They have real issues with scoring and roster construction.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Yeah I want to be clear:
1. I think the Sixers are a good team and will win a lot of games. Everyone loses long road trip games—the regular season is a grind without much payoff.
2. They have real issues with scoring and roster construction.

I agree with all of this. I had them at 50-32 at beginning of season and feel they are right on pace for this.

 

[benhogan]

They can’t have all of them, but they’ll go all in on Harris and Wall for their Big Three.

You are giving the Wizards way too much credit here. They out-stupid the Knicks and ask for RJ Barrett/picks for John Wall.
OKC slides in and takes expiring contracts for Chris Paul & a 2nd rounder

So I've got local kid Tobias Harris along with future HOFer Chris Paul leading the next cellar-dwelling Knicks team.

I'm not sure which franchise in New York gives New England more pleasure, the Jets or Knicks?

 

[Sam Ray Not]

Philly will go head over heels for D.Lo's hollow 26ppg average.

Player A: 28.7 pts on .572 true shooting
Player B: 30.4 pts on .561 ts
Player C: 24.9 pts on .551 ts
Player D: 29.7 pts on .542 ts

(Points per 36 minutes)

In descending order of efficiency: DLo, Mr. Chemistry, LeBron, Kawhi.

DLo is also the only guy on that list with no teammates that defenses have to worry about.

I mean, it's a small sample; and yeah, the numbers are "hollow" to the extent that the Baby Warriors have totally sucked. DLo also appears to be a pretty bad defender. But if his jump in efficiency this season is mostly real (something that wouldn't be unheard of for a 23 year old) DLo starts to become a pretty valuable asset, imo, even on a max deal. He's also a legit 6'-4" (by the same newly accurate measurements that now have Kyrie and Lillard 6'-2") with a 6'-10" wingspan, so presumably some potential for defensive growth. And is already a fantastic passer with an excellent ast/tov ratio the last two seasons.

TLDR: DLo for Simmons could make some sense for both teams. Biggest downside from my Warrior-centric perspective is the spacing issues posed by Simmons + Draymond. Basically, Simmons should be taking over Dray's role; and call me an ingrate, but Dray's poor play and body language this season has annoyed me to the point where I could probably abide trading him. Rosterbation alert, but send Draymond and a Top 5 pick to Indiana for Myles Turner.

Steph
Klay
Simmons
Paschall/Looney
Turner

Alternatively: just flip DLo straight up for Durant in the offseason, by which point Mr. Chemistry will have annoyed the fvck out of everyone in Brooklyn, including KD.

 

[lovegtm]

Player A: 28.7 pts on .572 true shooting
Player B: 30.4 pts on .561 ts
Player C: 24.9 pts on .551 ts
Player D: 29.7 pts on .542 ts

(Points per 36 minutes)

In descending order of efficiency: DLo, Mr. Chemistry, LeBron, Kawhi.

DLo is also the only guy on that list with no teammates that defenses have to worry about.

I mean, it's a small sample; and yeah, the numbers are "hollow" to the extent that the Baby Warriors have totally sucked. DLo also appears to be a pretty bad defender. But if his jump in efficiency this season is mostly real (something that wouldn't be unheard of for a 23 year old) DLo starts to become a pretty valuable asset, imo, even on a max deal. He's also a legit 6'-4" (by the same newly accurate measurements that now have Kyrie and Lillard 6'-2") with a 6'-10" wingspan, so presumably some potential for defensive growth. And is already a fantastic passer with an excellent ast/tov ratio the last two seasons.

TLDR: DLo for Simmons could make some sense for both teams. Biggest downside from my Warrior-centric perspective is the spacing issues posed by Simmons + Draymond. Basically, Simmons should be taking over Dray's role; and call me an ingrate, but Dray's poor play and body language this season has annoyed me to the point where I could probably abide trading him. Rosterbation alert, but send Draymond and a Top 5 pick to Indiana for Myles Turner.

Steph
Klay
Simmons
Paschall/Looney
Turner

Alternatively: just flip DLo straight up for Durant in the offseason, by which point Mr. Chemistry will have annoyed the fvck out of everyone in Brooklyn, including KD.

I think Indy jumps all over Draymond + a top-5 pick for Turner--they probably just want to do it before this season is over. That's a legit really interesting deal (trying to put myself in the perspective of an Indy fan).

 

[benhogan]

I think Indy jumps all over Draymond + a top-5 pick for Turner--they probably just want to do it before this season is over. That's a legit really interesting deal (trying to put myself in the perspective of an Indy fan).

Agreed.

Indy is pretty motivated to move Turner. SRN is being too generous. Draymond & a kid or lottery-protected 1 probably gets that done. Dray would add a ton of bad-ass attitude to Indy.

Oladipo
Brogdon
Sabonis
Draymond
Warren

That group has a say in a wide-open EC.

GSW has to save that potential #1 to staple with D.Lo to add the 3rd Superstar (Simmons, Giannis, etc) with Steph/Klay

 

[benhogan]

Ben Simmons makes a three pointer.

Maybe two.

ding, ding...we have a winner

 

[benhogan]

5. Maine Red Claws go undefeated. Tremont Waters G-League MVP (is there such a thing?)

The Waters MVP campaign has begun

https://nesn.com/2019/11/tacko-fall-tremont-waters-help-maine-red-claws-to-fifth-straight-win/

 

[TripleOT]

Hopefully, Waters will get called up if Kemba is going to miss a week or more. I can see him stepping in and contributing right away in limited minutes. He's a pure PG.

 

[lovegtm]

Hopefully, Waters will get called up if Kemba is going to miss a week or more. I can see him stepping in and contributing right away in limited minutes. He's a pure PG.

I’d also like to get a live look at how much of a liability his height will or won’t be defensively.

 

[TripleOT]

I’d also like to get a live look at how much of a liability his height will or won’t be defensively.

FWIW, he was the DPOY in the SEC. He's probably going to be better than IT and KI were. In the short minutes I watched him with Maine, and in the two preseason games I went to, he wasn't exploited

 

[benhogan]

Philly’s shooting/spacing doesn’t work and there are calls to break up the team/trade Simmons, even as they’re winning games on the strength of stifling D.

+1 ... pretty good prediction

Embiid probably tries to force his way out

 

[lovegtm]

+1 ... pretty good prediction

Embiid probably tries to force his way out

Ha, I was pretty off with the "stifling D" part. The shooting/spacing was a huge problem all year though, and should be a good reminder to people that just looking at 3PT% misses a lot of the story when it comes to spacing.