NBA 2018 Trade Deadline Chatter
- Thread starter BigSoxFan
- Start date
On the topic of first round picks, Woj says:
Dealing Smart for a first - assuming the Celtics were of a mind to do that - would not seem to be a deadline priority for a contending team. But if they are looking to ship out a first in a deal for Williams or Evans (either of whom would likely cut into Smart's minutes anyway), then it would make more sense.
One thing to think about is the Stepien rule. A team cannot deal its first round draft picks in consecutive years (hence the odd structure of the Brooklyn trade with the Celtics getting picks in 2014, 2016, and 2018).
The pick itself could be less valuable to the Celtics than the loss of trading flexibility that dealing it would bring about.
A team can deal it’s first as long as they own another first. It’s doesn’t have to be their own.
Unless they think Smart is more or less replaceable for this year and have no plans to re-sign him, so it becomes getting something for nothing, essentially. Would be a very Ainge-like move.
With Cornerstone pieces been added like Horford, Kyrie, Hayward, Jaylen and Tatum, Smart becomes more and more expendable. Smart and to a lesser extent Rozier, will have to either take less to stay or leave. Only so much cap space. Another part of the calculus is whether to GFIN this year when Hayward is out. Feels like the true window opens next year. Although this is likely peak Horford.
I am stoked that Danny isn't done. I think Toronto is very good but the C's are too. Last Saturday night vs GS showed the C's are a tough draw for them. With the Cavs seemingly vulnerable and the Cs fairly deep with some form of Hayward likely to return, it makes sense to reach for more firepower and GFIN. Another dependable efficient scorer plus Hayward makes this team really formidable. Get it done, Allard!
I've said it for a few weeks now. Danny needs to decide which one of Smart or Rozier they want to have a long-term future with. In my mind, Smart is the one that they should be looking to deal. Rozier is rounding into a very good 2-way player whereas Smart is very good defensively but how much better will he be offensively? I'd look for a 1st round pick for Smart and let somebody else overpay him.
Could it have something to do with the requirement of not having no first rounder two years in a row and not knowing if that other pick is going to convey? Combined with the reports of Snart being shipped for a first rounder, could this indicate a desire for maintaining pick trading flexibility going forward?
Which would also mean that a Smart trade could be to set up the trade of a first rounder. Or I don’t know what I’m talking about.
Edit: I see there is another page to this thread and @Eddie Jurak slready covered it.
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Now I’m angry there is no game on tonight.
I’m climbing on this bandwagon.
As mentioned above, the rule is that they can't go two consecutive years without having *any* first rounder, not necessarily their own. So they are in no danger of violating the Stepien rule.
Woj's podcast w/ Bobby Marks today touched on the Smart potential briefly. Also generally they pointed out that teams are really unwilling to move 1sts for Williams or Reke, seeing 1sts as rising in value and given the inability to re-sign Reke, nobody is going there.
I'd say Ainge just doesn't see value in moving a 1st, and is saving assets as always against the potential to make a big deal.
I'd say Ainge just doesn't see value in moving a 1st, and is saving assets as always against the potential to make a big deal.
My point in bringing up the rule was that once you have dealt one first round pick, your ability to deal others is restricted to ensure that you remain compliant.
Odds are the Lakers pick will not convey this year, leaving the Celtics with just their own first. If they deal it, then they will have to hold onto at least one first in 2019, which they may not want to do if they are, say, loading up to deal for AD.
You are allowed to trade 2019 once the 2018 draft has passed. You can't have back to back picks owed at the same time. So moving a pick at this deadline would have no bearing going forward.
I'd also expect Ainge places sufficient value on Nader, Larkin, and Yabusele that the need to trade either the first two or the latter for Evans makes him unwilling to also add a first round pick to the deal. Evans for our first under the DPE made some sense if there wasn't a worthwhile buyout candidate to use it on. Evans for our first and guys with some long term value is a significantly higher talent price tag.
Nader/Larkins are complete JAGs - I’d be surprised if Ainge places much value on them at all. I don’t have high hopes for Yabusele but can understand if Ainge/Stevens want to see if they can develop something there. There is no way you’re getting Evans for any combination of those guys and 2nd rounders.
At this time, I don’t think there is a big desire to give up even a low 1st for a rental when you already have a quality bench in Monroe/Morris/Smart/Rozier and a realistic chance of adding Hayward as well. If Evans/Williams comes, I would bet that it would be in conjunction with Smart going somewhere else.
Agreed, they won’t be able to afford to keep both in the short term. I’d say Rozier is the one other teams would overpay for since he can put up offensive counting stats at a higher rate. Plus, Smart needs to be in the right situation to really excel. To be honest I would expect both to be gone in a few years because they will need to get paid and Danny will need to lock up Jaylen, Tatum and the next high pick instead. Good problem to have, most teams would want this problem of too many assets.
Rozier has 1 more year at cost control, so that tips the scales. That and his game is more well-rounded.
Woj on Zach Lowe's podcast on C's.
--A lot of teams like Smart. Hard to get a 1st round pick for him. Usually only get 1st round picks for a salary dump or a star player. It's likely Smart stays.
--Wonders if Evans or Lou Will will actually command a real 1st and not a highly protected 1st that turns into 2 2nd rounders.
--A lot of teams like Smart. Hard to get a 1st round pick for him. Usually only get 1st round picks for a salary dump or a star player. It's likely Smart stays.
--Wonders if Evans or Lou Will will actually command a real 1st and not a highly protected 1st that turns into 2 2nd rounders.
Per Woj Boston asked for a #1 in addition to the draft bust which is where the talks stalled. As Mudiay would be easier to lock up long term than Rozier I could see why they'd be willing to take a flyer if Denver included a #1 (so that they could deal their own to Denver for 'Reke, while still maintaining the ability to add another role player after Evans departed). It'll be interesting to see if anyone is willing to cough up, but it looks like everyone is bargain hunting, so I don't think he's going anywhere.
With cap space being so tight this summer, I can imagine teams giving up slightly more than they normally would for an upcoming RFA. Especially if they think they have a good read on the market and will be able to resign their new RFA to a below market deal
I agree with this in general, but so far all the Smart rumors have been about other teams bargain hunting and Boston turning down the offers of expiring deals or draft busts for him.
It's tough to gauge right now. In the ESPN article about the cap crunch and lack of money available this summer they specifically mention that a guy like Smart would have trouble getting more than the mid-level exception. My guess is that Boston would match any deal in that range and so if he's a player you're really after getting his rights now might be very beneficial.
My guess? Smart stays but if he goes it's for one of those fake firsts that turns into a second.
And I doubt Ainge wants to take a guy like Smart off the roster this season just for a 2nd round pick. The C's don't really have to trade Smart; having him contribute on defense this season and playoffs and then walk for nothing is not necessarily the worst outcome.
While this is 100% accurate when you look two steps ahead at Danny's offseason you want to have extra bullets in your chamber (multiple 1sts) to make a run at someone like Anthony Davis especially is Demps is canned following the season. The minute Demps is ultimately replaced is the day Davis is suddenly in play......having extra #1's, even if they are in the high 20's, allows you to move the higher ones while still satisfying the Stepien rule.
This is why he's looking to ADD a #1 for Smart rather than give one away for a rental which IMO would never happen for the reason stated.
Ainge isn't looking past the 2018 draft though. He was ready for KG to be available by trading for Theo Ratliff as he knew a large expiring contract would be necessary. It looks to me as though he's now looking to stockpile low #1's through his downline to include multiple higher ones in a trade for Davis when the day Demps is fired arrives. Should that happen this offseason, Ainge wants to be 100% prepared for it.
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According to Woj the Nets are sending Tyler Zeller to the Bucks for Rashad Vaughn and a second round pick.
I know noting about Vaughn's game but a 6'6" SG that can knock down threes sounds like the type of guy that Kenny Atkinson will turn into a 3-and-D starter making $10 million per year.
I know noting about Vaughn's game but a 6'6" SG that can knock down threes sounds like the type of guy that Kenny Atkinson will turn into a 3-and-D starter making $10 million per year.
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Woj: 3 frontrunners for Tyreke Evans are Boston, Denver, and Philly. Miami still engaging as well.
Three way made to order
Smart to DEN for Mudiay + a future 1st
Future 1st to MEM
Evans + Mudiay to BOS
Smart to DEN for Mudiay + a future 1st
Future 1st to MEM
Evans + Mudiay to BOS
Wouldn’t Mudiay be going to Memphis in that scenario? But agree that the foundation of a trade seems to be there. Philly isn’t going to top what the Celtics can offer.
Since my negativity seems to work out for the Cs, I will once again note that Evans 3p% seemed to be regressing just as the Grizzlies benched him ahead of the deadline. I fear the C's would be buying production that won't be there going forward.
As much as Smart drives people crazy, I dont see the swap of his elite defense for Evans career offensive year (to date) as an upgrade.
I hope I am wrong but this sort of move is the kind that could bite the Celtics on both offense and defense.
In Ainge and Stevens I trust...
If given the choice, I’d rather have Smart’s D than Reke’s O. The former is more likely to be the difference maker in a playoff game.
Which is funny, because I was just going to say that being able to put points on the board when Kyrie is on the bench is more important to making noise in the playoffs...
But you have to account for what they do on the other side of the ball. Evans is at least an average defender, Smart is about league bottom offensively.
Evans is below average as a defender depending on what metric you use. The reason the C's make this "swap" is to sacrifice defense for offense which makes sense given their roster, strengths and weaknesses.
The problem, once again, is that Evans has had a career year offensively but looked like he was starting to regress before Memphis shelved him. Do the Celtics get a healthy Evans who has now developed a real outside shot? Or do they get the oft injured journeyman who is more of a low 30% shooter from deep. The Cs need the former and not this year's version of Evan Turner.
He's shot 37% on 450+ attempts across the last 3 seasons. There is no reason to think he won't be in the upper 30s.
The bulk of those shots and improvement come from this season. In six prior years to the '15-16 season, he was Smart-like from deep.
Look, he is likely the player they add so I want him to be good. But anyone pretending that he isn't incredibly flawed is ignoring his overall career.
Over the last three seasons, Evans has played 111 games total which is effectively a season and a third. His body of work over the prior 408 games/seven seasons suggests that we should, at least, question what his real, sustainable 3p% is. That is all I am saying.
You gotta stop it with that. Tyreke is a 38% 3-point shooter over the past 3 seasons this isn't a one-hit wonder. This covers 500 attempts with much improved mechanics from his youth. His mechanics and shooting ability do not resemble the Tyreke of his early 20's......they haven't in 4 years!
You know who else has shot 23% over his last 10 games? Lou Williams.
To be fair, I am going after his binky. HRB has been a 'Reke stan for a while now.
I have every confidence that a Stevens offense would provide better looks than he has seen in Memphis.
I used to want to make this a 3some but I’m in a fight with you guys about Big Al. You love him. I kind of like him but want to feed him gunpowder so I can really like him.
By DRPM he has been 25th, 17th and 17th among shooting guards the last three years, out of about 100 total. What do you have that has him below average?
David DeJesus plays in the NBA?
Some guys legitimately improve their shooting over the course of their careers. I think Evans' improvement has been over such a long period that we can safely assume his current true ability is greater than it was those first five or so seasons.