Shane said:
Only in the same way that Donaldson was a pipe dream last offseason. We have as good a chance as anyone to get at least one starter: the point is that there's a bunch a guys like Sale, Gray, Fernandez, Harvey, Kluber, Ross, Carrasco, Salazar, etc. who could conceivably be put on the market. Some will likely be available, some won't. At this point it's a guessing which. But in the chance that a guy like that is available, we'd better be ready to pounce
Also, it isn't guessing in the dark to know who will be available from that list. There is information to make these "guesses" with that make them pretty easy to figure out.
Sale - He's just finishing an age 26 season that will likely see his fourth top 6 Cy Young finish in four years. He's owed $21M over the next two years, then has successive team options at about $12M and $13M for the two years after that. In short, he's one of the top 10 pitchers in all of baseball in the prime of his career getting paid what a mediocre back of the rotation guy gets in FA both in dollars and committed years. He's not available. At all. Getting Sale isn't just trading a couple good prospects, it's giving the White Sox free pick of about a half dozen pre-arb. players including at least one of Bogaerts or Betts.
Gray - He hasn't been quite as good as Sale and doesn't have one of the most team friendly elite player contracts in all of baseball, so maybe he doesn't cost quite as much, but unless Billy Beane suffers an aneurysm the market probably starts at Betts or Bogaerts plus one of the young pitchers. Want to keep Betts/Bogaerts? Jump in a fuckin' lake.
Frenandez - If Sale and Gray weren't absurd enough lets talk about getting the best under 25 pitcher in all of baseball when he's just getting back from Tommy John. Because that isn't selling low on the Marlins part at all. Unless the front office shakeup the Marlins have planned involved putting a five year old in charge they aren't trading Fernandez for anything.
Harvey - He's had some public issues with team management and DeGrom and Syndergaard are both really good so I could see Harvey being available, albeit for a steep price that will at the very least require a proven hitter going back to the Mets. The only real options in that regard the Red Sox have are Betts and Bogaerts, so unless Dombrowski can work some crazy three way magic some other team will likely be a better fit.
Kluber - incredibly team friendly deal, just won the Cy Young in 2014. Last I checked the Indians like winning baseball games. Why would they trade him?
Ross - Just played his first arb. year., plays for a team that over-extended itself financially in 2015 looking for a win now push. Very possibly available, Pads will quite possibly want to use him to unload bad contracts, not something the Red Sox have room for more of when Ross is probably going to be in the 8-9M range himself following his second arb. award.
Carrasco - another prime years cost controlled starter. Again, why are teams trying to win looking to move these guys?
Salazar - maybe available for someone who can address the Indians need at corner OF or corner IF. Again not something the Sox have to trade.
Ross is probably the only real viable suggestion in the bunch. Salazar and Harvey might be acquirable, but I doubt those discussions go beyond them asking for Betts and the Sox saying no. You can't expect another club, ones closer to contention than the Red Sox mind you, to take prospects for established high value players. They want to win, preferably now.
If you think the club should trade for young cost controlled pitching you should set your sights at the next rung down, Trevor Bauer or Alex Wood for example, where the club needs to pick a guy ready to take the next step as Dombrowski did when he traded for Max Scherzer.
