Well I forgot to change one data point (total MLB runs scored) and that messed up all the values, so here's the accurate sheets now:
Hitters:
I was wondering why the sheet I posted yesterday had such low TTBR/27 values. It's because I didn't update the total number of runs scored in MLB, which is a huge factor in that formula. TTBR/27 is essentially the number of runs you'd expect a full lineup of that player to score in a regulation 9-inning game. So you'd expect a lineup of Jarren Durans to put up 5.77 runs a game, but a lineup of Ceddanne Rafaelas to put up only 3.91 runs a game.
Pitchers:
Also makes much more sense of the pitching data. Except in small sample sizes, for the most part the pitchers' actual ERAs track fairly well with their TTBR/27.
"Luckiest" pitchers - i.e., those whose ERA is the lowest compared to their TTBR/27 (min 25 ip):
Weissert: 4.29 --> 3.13, -1.16
Booser: 4.14 --> 3.38, -0.76
Bernardino: 4.76 --> 4.06, -0.70
"Unluckiest" pitchers - i.e., those whose ERA is the highest compared to their TTBR/27 (min 25 ip):
Keller: 5.19 --> 5.84, +0.65 (ok, he only pitched 24.2 ip, but close enough)
Anderson: 4.52 --> 4.85, +0.33
Crawford: 4.21 --> 4.36, +0.15
The interesting fact here is that it would seem, by this metric, that many more Red Sox pitchers were "lucky" than "unlucky" this year.
Other key players in MLB:
Hitters:
So a lineup of nine Aaron Judges would be expected to score nearly nine runs a game. Far, far more than what a team of nine Witts would be expected to score. To my surprise, Judge far outpaces Ohtani too. I figured Ohtani's huge SB number would catapult him over Judge but Judge's edge in walks makes up for it. From an offensive standpoint, Judge was by far the best player in baseball this year, despite Ohtani's humongous season.
Pitchers:
I haven't been following Cleveland too closely and though I knew Clase was dominant, I thought he had more strikeouts than that.
I wonder if anything is up with my formula, as most pitchers seem to have a negative differential from their TTBR/27 to their actual ERA. Though I guess my formula takes into account RUNS allowed, not EARNED RUNS, so that's naturally going to inflate their TTBR/27 number. Need to work on that, I think.