MVP almost three-peat?

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Nikola Jokic has won back-to-back MVPs, and is in position to win it for the third time in a row, something only Bill Russell (61-63), Wilt Chamberlain (66-68), and Larry Bird (84-86) have done. I want to look at the guys who won two in a row but didn't get that third straight.

1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - 1971-72
1971: 31.7 points, 16.0 rebounds, 3.3 assists
1972: 34.8 points, 16.6 rebounds, 4.6 assists

Then came 1973, where Kareem averaged 30.2 points, 16.1 rebounds, and 5.0 assists, but didn't win the MVP. That went to Dave Cowens, who averaged 20.5 points, 16.2 rebounds, and 4.1 assists. I was just a kid back then so I didn't see either of them play at this time, but from a statistical standpoint, Kareem was significantly better, especially considering the fact that he averaged almost 10 points a game more.

2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - 1976-77
1976 - 27.7 points, 16.9 rebounds, 5.0 assists
1977 - 26.2 points, 13.3 rebounds, 3.9 assists

Incredibly, Kareem won the MVP in 5 out of 7 years, but didn't three peat even once. In 1978 he averaged 25.8 points, 12.9 rebounds, and 4.3 assists, but the MVP went to Bill Walton, who averaged 18.9 points, 13.2 rebounds, and 5.0 assists. Again, statistically, Kareem seems to have been better.

3. Moses Malone - 1982-83
1982 - 31.1 points, 14.7 rebounds, 1.8 assists
1983 - 24.5 points, 15.3 rebounds, 1.3 assists

Moses was terrific again in 1984, averaging 22.7 points, 13.4 rebounds, and 1.4 assists, but lost out to Bird, who won the first of three in a row, averaging 24.2 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 6.6 assists.

4. Magic Johnson - 1989-90
1989 - 22.5 points, 7.9 rebounds, 12.8 assists
1990 - 22.3 points, 6.6 rebounds, 11.5 assists

Magic won 3 in 4 seasons, but in 1991 lost out to Jordan, who averaged 31.5 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 5.5 assists.

5. Michael Jordan - 1991-92
1991 - 31.5 points, 6.0 rebounds, 5.5 assists
1992 - 30.1 points, 6.4 rebounds, 6.1 assists

In 1993, Jordan averaged 32.6 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 5.5 assists, but lost out to Charles Barkley, who averaged 25.6 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 5.1 assists. Obviously Barkley was fantastic that year, but Jordan..well..it felt like this was the "fatigue" of voting for Jordan.

6. Tim Duncan - 2002-03
2002 - 25.5 points, 12.7 rebounds, 3.7 assists
2003 - 23.3 points, 12.9 rebounds, 3.9 assists

In 2004, Duncan averaged 22.3 points, 12.4 rebounds, and 3.1 assists, but lost out to Kevin Garnett, who averaged 24.2 points, 13.9 rebounds, and 5.0 assists. Garnett deserved the MVP that year over Duncan.

7. Steve Nash - 2005-06
2005 - 15.5 points, 3.3 rebounds, 11.5 assists
2006 - 18.8 points, 4.2 rebounds, 10.5 assists

In 2007, Nash averaged 18.6 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 11.6 assists, but lost out to Dirk Nowitzki, who averaged 24.6 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 3.4 assists. Dirk deserved the MVP that year.

8. LeBron James - 2009-10
2009 - 28.4 points, 7.6 rebounds, 7.2 assists
2010 - 29.7 points, 7.3 rebounds, 8.6 assists

In 2011, LeBron averaged 26.7 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 7.0 assists, having another spectacular season, but lost out to Derrick Rose, who averaged 25.0 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 7.7 assists. Rose was not better than LeBron that year, but it was voter fatigue of some sort.

9. LeBron James - 2012-13
2012 - 27.1 points, 7.9 rebounds, 6.2 assists
2013 - 26.8 points, 8.0 rebounds, 7.3 assists

This made it 4 MVPS in 5 seasons for LeBron, interrupted only by Derrick Rose in 2011. But LeBron would again fail to three-peat, as the MVP in 2014 was won by Kevin Durant. LeBron averaged 27.1 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 6.3 assists, but Durant put up 32.0 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 5.5 assists, and was the deserved winner.

10. Steph Curry - 2015-16
2015 - 23.8 points, 4.3 rebounds, 7.7 assists
2016 - 30.1 points, 5.4 rebounds, 6.7 assists

Curry's brilliant MVP run came to an end in 2017, even though he averaged 25.3 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 6.6 assists. He lost out to Russell Westbrook, who averaged a triple double: 31.6 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 10.4 assists.

11. Giannis Antetokounmpo - 2019-20
2019 - 27.7 points, 12.5 rebounds, 5.9 assists
2020 - 29.5 points, 13.6 rebounds, 5.6 assists

Giannis' bid for a three-peat ended in 2021 as he lost out to Nikola Jokic, despite averaging 28.1 points, 11.0 rebounds, and 5.9 assists. Jokic took the award while averaging 26.4 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 8.3 assists.


Looking back at this list, it's hard to say who SHOULD have won 3 in a row. I think Kareem in 1973 should have won it over Cowens. Kareem also had a good case in 1978 when Walton won. Though Barkley was great in 1993, I think Jordan probably was better that year. LeBron definitely was better than Derrick Rose in 2011 as well.
 

Bergs

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Jordan got hosed twice (Barkley, K. Malone). and LeBron once.
 
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Kliq

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The Rose year remains an incredibly bad vote. LeBron probably should have won it, but Dwight Howard and CP3 also had really strong cases and I would have voted for them ahead of Rose, who at best was the fourth best player that year.

Most of the time it seems like one all-time-great came in and stopped another all-time-great from winning a third. Bird dethroning Moses, MJ dethroning Magic, KD beating out LeBron, so it's hard to get that upset. Jordan feels the most egregious because we have the hindsight of Jordan going on to completely vanquish the people who beat him for the MVP in devastating fashion.

You could also look at this by going back to the year before guys one their first MVP. Like Duncan finished second in 2001 and you could easily make the case that he was better than Iverson that season.

It's worth noting that pre-1980 the award was voted on by the players. The Cowens>Kareem pick reeks of 70s sportswriters voting for the gritty white guy over the brooding black guy, but the players voted on it so its somewhat harder to dismiss. And Cowens did earn it by playing really well against Kareem in the Finals and winning the title.

I don't think Jokic will win a third. My pick right now is Giannis; his team is close to the #1 seed despite injuries to his supporting cast, his stats are incredible and is defense is DPOY-worthy. I think people will be reluctant to vote for Jokic until he at least makes the Finals; it's maybe not fair but it is the way it works.
 

coremiller

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A lot of these votes can be explained by team sucess. Cowens over Kareem in 73 had a lot to do with the Celtics winning 68 games that year. Same with Walton over Kareem in 78; the Blazers were 50-10 when Walton got hurt, and went 8-24 down the stretch without him. Also Rose in 2011: that was LeBron's first Miami season, and while his stats were still great, the team was viewed as a disappointment, as they were *only* 58-24. Meanwhile Rose was the offensive engine for the Bulls, who went 62-20.

Ironically, 2007 is the one year Nash deserved the MVP.
 

Ale Xander

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Barkley didn’t have Pippen and was the centerpiece of one of the largest trades of the time, improved his team by 9 wins and took them 2 rounds further
Was 6th in RPG, 5th in PPG, and 3rd among front court players in AST

it’s not a most outstanding player. It is most valuable and Barkley deserved it that year.
 
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Bergs

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Barkley didn’t have Pippen and was the centerpiece of one of the largest trades of the time, improved his team by 9 wins and took them 2 rounds further
Was 6th in RPG, 5th in PPG, and 3rd among front court players in AST

it’s not a most outstanding player. It is most valuable and Barkley deserved it that year.
That Suns team was stacked. 7 guys with over 10 PPG (4 for the Bulls), and KJ had a great year, as did Majerle. Barkley was awesome (one of my favorites ever), but Jordan wins that award going away had he not won it the prior 2.
 

67YAZ

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2010-2011 was equal parts Lebron-fatique and Rose narrative triumph. Rose made a ton of clutch/game-winning shots and was seemingly in SportsCenter's top plays every night.

Plus, Lebron was coming off "The Decision" and Rose was a hometown kid with an unbelievable amount of love and enthusiasm in Chicago. I think some of these writers were rebuking Lebron for pursuing what he wanted in free agency by lifting up the kid who happened to get drafted to the team where he grew up.

No doubt Lebron was the MVP, and he proved his point in the ECF in a 5 game whupping. Lebron spent a lot of that series guarding Rose and forced Derrick into a really inefficient 23pts/game.

But we'll always have the highlights.

 
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snowmanny

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As for Cowens, I get the Kareem argument, but if a team goes 68-14 their best player is always going to get a lot of MVP consideration.

One thing abour Russ, Wilt and Bird: Their teams had the best records in the league each of the years of their three-peat. Jokic is a different situation.

edit- and to that point the Suns had the best record in the league in 1993. It's a regular season award for a team game. I have zero issue with giving bonus consideration to the undisputed leader and best player on the best regular season team.

edit - also re Kareem having better "stats" than Walton....The Trailblazers swept the Lakers in 1977 on their way to the title, were 50-10 when Walton went down in 1978...the Lakers finished fourth in their division....I do not know anyone around then who didn't think Walton was the best player in the league before he got hurt.
 
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Sam Ray Not

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In 2016-17, Steph led led the league in RAPTOR, WAR, and RPM for by far the best team in the league (67-15). And: led the team to 13 straight wins without KD late in the season after KD went down to a serious calf strain.

But I think there was already next to zero chance of him winning it after KD came onboard; and his weirdly deferential play for the first couple months of the season — even if mostly evidence of his selflessness — created early narratives that calcified and basically disqualified him. But I suspect a robot looking at 2016-17 without the context of the 2015-16 Unanimous season or the general emotions surrounding KD's signing in summer of '16 would have a hard time figuring out why either Steph or LeBron weren't the MVP that year. (Ditto for many of the seasons in which Jordan got hosed...)
 

Seels

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Jordan absolutely should have won it in 96-97. I've never really understood why people voted for Malone aside from Jordan fatigue.
 

lexrageorge

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Regarding Kareem vs Cowens in 1973, there were several factors at the time that favored Cowens despite Kareem's statistical dominance. First, the Celtics did win 68 games, 8 more than Kareem's Bucks or the defending champion Lakers. Cowens played in all 82 games was obviously a key part of that team. The prior 2 seasons Kareem led the NBA in the all important (at the time) points per game metric, and in 1972 it wasn't particularly close either. In 1973, Kareem's 30.2 ppg was a distant 2nd behind Tiny Archibald's 34. Cowens narrowly edged Kareem in total rebounds per game. But probably the most crucial aspect in Cowens favor was his outstanding interior defense despite regularly matching up against centers several inches taller. While defensive win shares is a flawed stat, Cowens' dominance in that one stat is easily supported by the eye test and the box score numbers of opposing centers.

Also worth point out that voting at the time was done by the players, which would be the case up until 1980. And the voting was close, and Tiny leading the league in scoring definitely took some votes away from Kareem. Finally, cannot really complain too much if the voters take the term "most valuable" to mean what it says rather than simply "best overall".

As for the 1978 vote, the player voters certainly rewarded Walton for his dominance in the 1977 playoffs and those 58 games he did play for Portland. Kareem was 4th in ppg and 7th in rpg, and his Lakers won only 45 games that season. And the vote was again close, with scoring leader George Gervin finishing 2nd. Finally, Walton was a player that had impact that went well beyond his numbers; you kind of had to be there.

There is literally no coherent argument that would put Moses Malone ahead of peak Bird in 1984.

Barkley was a deserving winner; again, you kind of had to be there. Jordan would have been deserving as well that season. Karl Malone? Not so much.
 
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luckiestman

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Jordan absolutely should have won it in 96-97. I've never really understood why people voted for Malone aside from Jordan fatigue.
Simmons blames Jackie Mac. Speaking of Jackie, where is she?
 

m0ckduck

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Also worth point out that voting at the time was done by the players, which would be the case up until 1980.
This is the key point. 70s MVP voting was bizarre. Wes Unseld? The mechanism was just as weird in the 60s, but it went inevitably to Russell or Wilt most years, so there was less to get confused over. 1970s MVP voting was a snow globe where you could shake it up and Kareem would wind up with 6 or so MVPs, but it's almost entirely arbitrary which years they were.
 

mauf

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A lot of these votes can be explained by team sucess. Cowens over Kareem in 73 had a lot to do with the Celtics winning 68 games that year. Same with Walton over Kareem in 78; the Blazers were 50-10 when Walton got hurt, and went 8-24 down the stretch without him. Also Rose in 2011: that was LeBron's first Miami season, and while his stats were still great, the team was viewed as a disappointment, as they were *only* 58-24. Meanwhile Rose was the offensive engine for the Bulls, who went 62-20.

Ironically, 2007 is the one year Nash deserved the MVP.
The MVP is a regular-season award. The 1993 Suns and 2011 Bulls each posted the league’s best record, and neither Barkley nor Rose had a wingman as good as Pippen or Wade. Those MVPs were well deserved, the later playoff vindications of Jordan and LeBron notwithstanding. The Cowens and Walton MVPs are more dubious — Cowens had plenty of help, and Walton missing a quarter of the season should have been disqualifying.
 

Red Right Ankle

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The MVP is a regular-season award. The 1993 Suns and 2011 Bulls each posted the league’s best record, and neither Barkley nor Rose had a wingman as good as Pippen or Wade. Those MVPs were well deserved, the later playoff vindications of Jordan and LeBron notwithstanding. The Cowens and Walton MVPs are more dubious — Cowens had plenty of help, and Walton missing a quarter of the season should have been disqualifying.
Yep, otherwise Steph should have won MVP when the Warriors ended up in the lottery cause he was injured. Obviously, he was the most valuable player - they went from 57 to 15 wins without him!
 

Sam Ray Not

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Those MVPs were well deserved, the later playoff vindications of Jordan and LeBron notwithstanding.
1992-93
WS: Jordan 17.2, Hakeem 15.8, Malone 15.4
VORP: Jordan 10.2, Hakeem 7.8, Malone 7.3
BPM: Jordan +11.8, Barkley +7.8, Hakeem +7.5
PER: Jordan 29.7, Hakeem 27.3, Malone 26.2

2010-11
WS: LeBron 15.6, Gasol 14.7, Howard 14.4
VORP: LeBron 7.8, Paul 6.7, Rose 6.7
BPM: LeBron +8.1, Paul +7.1, Rose +6.8
PER: LeBron 27.3, Howard 26.1, Wade 25.6

Setting aside their subsequent playoff vindications: MJ and LeBron were the clear MVPs those seasons.
 
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mauf

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Rose might end up the only MVP winner ever to not get into the HOF.
From the way you phrased this, I know you know Rose might make it. He wouldn’t be the least worthy player enshrined; that honor goes to Calvin Murphy. I’d argue Rose is more worthy than Drazen Petrovic and Mo Cheeks too. None of those guys were ever seriously in the “best baller on the planet” discussion, the way an NBA MVP is by definition.

Basketball has a big Hall.
 

lexrageorge

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The MVP is a regular-season award. The 1993 Suns and 2011 Bulls each posted the league’s best record, and neither Barkley nor Rose had a wingman as good as Pippen or Wade. Those MVPs were well deserved, the later playoff vindications of Jordan and LeBron notwithstanding. The Cowens and Walton MVPs are more dubious — Cowens had plenty of help, and Walton missing a quarter of the season should have been disqualifying.
Kareem played only 4 more games than Walton that season. League was in a bit of a strange place in 1978, and there was no dominant team that season once Walton got hurt. George Gervin finished a closed 2nd in the voting and may have been the most deserving. But the league was still adapting to its merger with the ABA, and Gervin never really had the chance to build a reputation among the other player-voters.

Not relevant to the MVP voting, but the Finals that season featured a Bullets team that won 44 games beating a Seattle team that won 47. In a couple of years the Finals would no longer be shown on live TV.
 

Devizier

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Cheeks probably got a boost from his coaching career, even if that wasn’t supposed to be part of his merits for inclusion.
 

snowmanny

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There is an occasional element of "this might be our best/last chance to give it to (Dr. J/Kobe/karl Malone/Harden, etc) so let's break the tie that way." I'm not convinced that is a bad thing. To pick my first example, I am OK with Erving having won the MVP once, even though he mostly did it at the expense of Bird (who everyone knew would have other chances) and also Malone and Kareem (who had already won MVPs). And Erving was a perfectly defensible choice, though not my choice.

I think folks would like Embiid to win one, and would like Tatum to win one. And they'd probably like to give Giannis another someday. But maybe/probably the gap is too wide between Jokic and the field to sneak anyone else in there this year.
 
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PC Drunken Friar

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From the way you phrased this, I know you know Rose might make it. He wouldn’t be the least worthy player enshrined; that honor goes to Calvin Murphy. I’d argue Rose is more worthy than Drazen Petrovic and Mo Cheeks too. None of those guys were ever seriously in the “best baller on the planet” discussion, the way an NBA MVP is by definition.

Basketball has a big Hall.
He could also get some recognition for his non-NBA basketball stuff. A record 38 wins for Memphis and two FIBA Gold medals.
 

Kliq

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This is very unscientific but still says something imo.

I've been looking through the "Advanced" tab on Basketball-Reference for different players and noticing who has black ink on it. I've informally kind of noticed that having a decent amount of black ink on that page is something that really only the greatest players in history have. While all of the advanced metrics have their flaws; there is something to be said if someone dominates in a wide variety of them. What is more telling is that the black ink tends to justify a lot of accepted norms. For example, Bird dominants the advanced metrics during his MVP streak, with a couple more black ink categories in his early years and nothing after his first major injury. LeBron dominates to a historical degree during his Miami years, but has very little after he goes back to Cleveland. By that point he was a different player and not quite at his (regular season) peak anymore. Duncan does well during his back-to-back MVP seasons, but does little else as he, like LeBron, became more focused on maintaince for the post-season.

I've made a little list for Black Ink on the Advanced pages. Obviously some of the advanced stats are not great, such as turnover percentage, so I'm not including them. I'm sticking with PER, VORP, BPM, OBPM, DBPM, OWS, DWS, WS and WS/48. That's probably too WS/BPM heavy, but again, this isn't very scientific. This is not done in a specific order, I just looked up random great players.

Jordan - 61
Kareem - 55*
LeBron - 41
Wilt - 29*
Jokic - 23
Bird - 21
Shaq - 20
Harden - 17
Russell - 11*
KG - 10
Curry - 10
Duncan - 9
Durant - 8
Giannis - 8
Karl Malone - 7
Moses Malone - 7
Hakeem - 6
Oscar - 5
Westbrook - 4
Magic - 3
Kobe - 0 (lol)

This helps Jordan's GOAT case, because he clearly grinded in the regular season, playing 82 games most seasons and is able to clean up in a lot of these categories, even after he turns 30 which is basically impossible for everybody else. Players like LeBron and Duncan are still great, especially when it comes to the post-season, but the lack of black ink does give some indication they took it just a tad easier in the regular season at a certain point.

The asterisks are to note that there is no BPM data at all pre-1973/74, which hurts the players who's careers were before that time. Kareem might actually be #1 if they had it for the first three years of his career, because he dominated that data for years after it was implemented.

Outside of LeBron/Jordan/Kareem tier, the data backs up a lot of what MVP voters have said in the past. Players like Duncan, Curry and Moses killed it during their MVP seasons but didn't hit those heights in other (still very good, obviously) seasons. KG dominates in 2003-2004, his lone MVP season. Westbrook's entire black ink comes from his lone MVP season.

Wilt obviously put up giant stats and dominants a lot of the 60s, which impacts players like Russell and Oscar. Like most statistical measures, this would tell you Wilt is better than Russell, which I disagree with and why it shows numbers can only take us so far. I also think Magic is clearly undervalued. Kobe never cracking it once, even in OWS when he took a billion shots, helps justify the thought that Kobe is overrated.

The reason I did this whole exercise though, was to show just how dominate Jokic has been over the past three seasons. If you are unsure on the credibility of putting Jokic on the same level as someone like Bird, at least in terms of winning three straight MVPs, the data helps put into context the superb level of his regular season play over the past three years. He's already ahead of almost anyone else and he's only 28. He's destroyed his peers when it comes to these advanced metrics, and historically that tells us he is the MVP.