Much like Newman, the Sox are not “Ready to deliver”– The 2025 Offseason News (& rumors?) Thread

[sean1562]

So what is our best case SP scenario for next season? I think we have definitely raised the rotation's ceiling, even if some of it is a little risky.

SP1: Crochet continues to develop and has a Cy Young Caliber season. 150+ innings with a FIP around 3
SP2: Houck shows last season was not a fluke, we get another 180 innings with a FIP around 3.20
SP3: Buehler bounces back and has a season resembling 2021, where he threw 207 innings with a 2.47 ERA/3.16 FIP, over 7 bWAR
SP4: Bello puts it together and has a full season with 180+ innings with an ERA around 3.5
SP5: Giolito is healthy and throws 160+ innings with an ERA/FIP around 3.80. I have low expectations for this guy, but the org must see something they like they think they can mold.
SP6: Crawford stays healthy, throws a ton of innings, has an ERA around 4.

I do not think Giolito is going to be any good next year, Bello and Crawford are probably the guys they were last year(which if fine), and Buehler is not gong to be 2021 good ever again. The upside on the Buehler signing is unlimited though. We have more pitchers that can throw over 100 innings which was our big issue last season. The offense is good and has the potential to be amazing if Campbell and Anthony get called up and perform at a high level. Projections are by nature conservative. Fangraphs projected Houck for 1.5 WAR before last season and 1.9 fWAR out of CF. The Yankees were an incredibly top heavy offense last year, lost Soto, and replaced Anthony Rizzo with 37 year old Paul Goldschmidt. I don't think this team is that far behind NY or Baltimore, the projected WAR difference is firmly within the margin of error.

 

[chrisfont9]

The streakiness of both the pitching and offense was brutal last year. One side of the ball would crater for a few weeks at a time.

It's funny because as of February 2024, Houck was the odd man out in terms of the rotation. He ended up being an All Star. Totally admit I did not see that coming.

SP depth was a killer. Just did not have enough solid MLB caliber starters to take the ball every fifth day. As it stands, the Red Sox have more talent in that group and more depth. To be optimistic, this should have a ripple effect in terms of quality innings.

Honestly, I think the streakiness on offense can be chalked up to the amount of at bats that were given to replacement level players. That wont kill you for a week or 2, but over the course of the season it just isn't sustainable. I don't expect Duran to put up 7 WAR again but I also do not expect 450+ at bats given to guys like McGwire/Dalbec/Reyes/Westbrook/Cooper et al.

Totally agree, except re Duran, he is what he is now. Maybe the dWAR will drop?

 

[BaseballJones]

Really excited by this off-season. Sox have acquired the second best player of the off-season, one of the better lefty relievers in the game, and another good starter.

They now have one of the top rotations in the American League; a good and deep bullpen bolstered by healthy Whitlock and Hendriks; nice pitching depth in Worcester; and a good offense that stands to improve thanks to a healthy Casas and Story.

And it’s easy to believe that Breslow isn’t done yet, with his stated desire to add a bat and the reports of the Sox working to add another bullpen arm. And then there’s the excitement of two of the best prospects in all of baseball seemingly competing for spots on the team. I still have vivid memories of Mo, Buchholz, Pedroia, Mookie, and JBJ as rookies. It always adds a little extra excitement when heralded prospects first make the majors. Can’t wait to watch Anthony and Campbell.

Shaping up to be a fun season.

I'm with you 100%. I'd like another piece or two, but this should be a fun team, and I can't wait to watch Crochet pitch for them.

Things are looking up.

 

[chrisfont9]

So what is our best case SP scenario for next season? I think we have definitely raised the rotation's ceiling, even if some of it is a little risky.

SP1: Crochet continues to develop and has a Cy Young Caliber season. 150+ innings with a FIP around 3
SP2: Houck shows last season was not a fluke, we get another 180 innings with a FIP around 3.20
SP3: Buehler bounces back and has a season resembling 2021, where he threw 207 innings with a 2.47 ERA/3.16 FIP, over 7 bWAR
SP4: Bello puts it together and has a full season with 180+ innings with an ERA around 3.5
SP5: Giolito is healthy and throws 160+ innings with an ERA/FIP around 3.80. I have low expectations for this guy, but the org must see something they like they think they can mold.
SP6: Crawford stays healthy, throws a ton of innings, has an ERA around 4.

I do not think Giolito is going to be any good next year, Bello and Crawford are probably the guys they were last year(which if fine), and Buehler is not gong to be 2021 good ever again. The upside on the Buehler signing is unlimited though. We have more pitchers that can throw over 100 innings which was our big issue last season. The offense is good and has the potential to be amazing if Campbell and Anthony get called up and perform at a high level. Projections are by nature conservative. Fangraphs projected Houck for 1.5 WAR before last season and 1.9 fWAR out of CF. The Yankees were an incredibly top heavy offense last year, lost Soto, and replaced Anthony Rizzo with 37 year old Paul Goldschmidt. I don't think this team is that far behind NY or Baltimore, the projected WAR difference is firmly within the margin of error.

I'm a serial optimist so I would expect Crochet and Buehler to be very good to excellent. Houck and Bello should be solid most nights. But Giolito... wow, just no idea. His FIP was pretty good until 2023, when he allowed 41 bombs. Maybe the arm was barking or the divorce was really hard. That is an easy assumption for us strangers to make, so it wouldn't shock me if he bounced back, but almost anything is possible with respect to his performance this year.

 

[Mike473]

I don't know that I'd use the word "exclusively." I think Henry's goal is for his high end talent to be developed "primarily" from within when it is young, cost-controlled, and relatively healthy.



We had a lot of God awful deals before Bloom (Crawford, Sandoval, etc.), who was hired to implement the philosophy, not craft it. He did his part to rebuild the farm system, but Henry clearly didn't trust him to lead the next stage of development (which is not unique to Chaim).



The Sox signed Story to a 6-year deal in early 2022, Yoshida to a 5-year deal later that year, and Devers to an 11-year deal in early 2023.

Red Sox OPS vs LH in 2024 was .728 which was 10th in MLB The Yankees were 11th at .721. I will say it again it is not as important as hitting RH. Also its just not that big an issue for the Red Sox no matter how long posts saying it is are.

What exactly is the just right number of left handed hitters, if they're currently too heavy? As of now, the 40-man roster has 15 position players on it: 6 LHH (Duran, Devers, Casas, Abreu, Yoshida, Hamilton), 8 RHH (Story, Grissom, Wong, Rafaela, Gonzalez, Refsnyder, Narvaez, Garcia), and one switch hitter (Sogard).

I think when looking at the players that make up the right handed group, the problem is pretty self explanatory, no? That is a shaky group.

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

Between Rosenthal's ridiculous over the top op-ed and this post today about Alonso looking for a 3 year deal I think it's clear that we're now at the point in the offseason where the guys remaining aren't getting what they hoped.

https://twitter.com/JimDuquetteGM/status/1877715029790712099

Hopeful sign for Bregman. I doubt he wants to play for Toronto or Detroit, neither of whom look like competitive franchises over the next few years. The venom we see from Rosenthal (who seems to be urging Boston fans to riot if Bregman/Boras don't get their way) looks to me like frustration that Bregman is down to one option. Although I can't believe the Yankees aren't in on this guy with what they've got right now at third base.

He should have taken what Houston offered.

 

[joe dokes]

Between Rosenthal's ridiculous over the top op-ed and this post today about Alonso looking for a 3 year deal I think it's clear that we're now at the point in the offseason where the guys remaining aren't getting what they hoped.

https://twitter.com/JimDuquetteGM/status/1877715029790712099

Hopeful sign for Bregman. I doubt he wants to play for Toronto or Detroit, neither of whom look like competitive franchises over the next few years. The venom we see from Rosenthal (who seems to be urging Boston fans to riot if Bregman/Boras don't get their way) looks to me like frustration that Bregman is down to one option. Although I can't believe the Yankees aren't in on this guy with what they've got right now at third base.

He should have taken what Houston offered.

Did Rosenthal make predictions about Bregman's FA journey. Perhaps this is just a case of Rosenthal digging in his heels: "I wasn't wrong; teams are being stupid."

 

[E5 Yaz]

Did Rosenthal make predictions about Bregman's FA journey. Perhaps this is just a case of Rosenthal digging in his heels: "I wasn't wrong; teams are being stupid."

He's so worked up, his bow tie is spinning

 

[DavidTai]

Boras must be beside himself calling everyone in town while begging the Red Sox to bid more than 3 years on anyone over 30.

 

[bosockboy]

The Carrabis of St Louis threw this out today. And he’s hinting of something up with Herrera moving. Who would do this?

View: https://twitter.com/cardinals_live/status/1877820399708188976?s=46

 

[burstnbloom]

I would do that and not think twice about it, but I'd be surprised if the Cardinals would do it.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

The Carrabis of St Louis threw this out today. And he’s hinting of something up with Herrera moving. Who would do this?

View: https://twitter.com/cardinals_live/status/1877820399708188976?s=46

Herrera is super interesting. His batted ball profile is incredible. He can frame and block. Throwing needs work. 24 years old with 4 years remaining. Arb in 2026.

His bat is real though and because he can catch he’s definitely incredible valuable.

Would be a pretty bold move and one I think would be pretty exciting and ultimately make the team better in 2025 and beyond.

 

[simplicio]

I would do that and not think twice about it, but I'd be surprised if the Cardinals would do it.

My thoughts too, but I'd also rather get more prospects than have them eat Arenado's salary.

 

[burstnbloom]

My thoughts too, but I'd also rather get more prospects than have them eat Arenado's salary.

I agree with that but if this were the deal they actually negotiated, I think it would be a good move for the team.

 

[Cassvt2023]

I'm not sure if going from not yet 25 yr old Tristan Casas to almost 34 yr old Nolan Arenado makes the Sox offense any better in 2025, speaking nothing about '26 and beyond.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

I'm not sure if going from not yet 25 yr old Tristan Casas to almost 34 yr old Nolan Arenado makes the Sox offense any better in 2025, speaking nothing about '26 and beyond.

The upgrade of Wong to Herrera would more than make up for it. You’d also drastically improve defense at third; catcher, and most likely first.

 

[moondog80]

The upgrade of Wong to Herrera would more than make up for it. You’d also drastically improve defense at third; catcher, and most likely first.

Plus you are getting a really good reliever, albiet for just one year.

What is the Cardinals' plan? Are they trying to contend and rebuild at the same time? That is, do they want Casas with two pre-arb years already burned?

 

[bosockboy]

For anyone interested, Helsley settled yesterday for 8.2 million so the salary is locked in.

 

[burstnbloom]

I'm not sure if going from not yet 25 yr old Tristan Casas to almost 34 yr old Nolan Arenado makes the Sox offense any better in 2025, speaking nothing about '26 and beyond.

Raw offense, maybe not, but the deal comes with one of the most elite relievers in the league, a 24 year old 2+ WAR 2 way catcher and the largest possible defensive upgrade at 3b going from the least valuable 3b to the most. Casas is a lot to give up and Crawford has value, but 4+ years of well above average production at catcher is a large upgrade.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

That's a baseball trade. Not 100% sure I'd do it because of how much I like Casas, but it's a baseball trade and I'd certainly understand and ultimately be ok with it from the "have to give to get" perspective.


This is just my take, but I think Breslow's line in the sand for dealing Casas (and NOT getting back a young, cost controlled, potential top of the rotation starting pitcher) is that he has to be getting out from a bad contract (either Story or Yoshida). Which I personally kind of agree with.

If the rumors out of Seattle are legit - or at least if I read them correctly, I'd guess it went.

1) Boston approaches Seattle about Casas for G,K,W,M. Seattle says no.
2) Seattle offers Castillo for Casas. Breslow laughs for 15 minutes until DiPoto hangs up the phone.
3) Breslow calls DiPoto back and says "what about Castillo and Prospect X for Casas and you take back Yoshida?"
4) DiPoto turns that down because he overplays his hand.
5) Breslow goes on to sign Walker Buehler and Seattle is left holding the bag.

Again, I could be very wrong, but I think the only way Casas goes anywhere is for another version of Crochet or if someone will give up something still useful but in a "fit for fit" swap that allows Breslow to get out from under the Story or Yoshida deal.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

Hopeful sign for Bregman. I doubt he wants to play for Toronto or Detroit, neither of whom look like competitive franchises over the next few years.

Pretty strong disagree that Detroit won't be competitive for the next couple of years, they made the playoffs this year and have some young players on the rise to go with a legit superstar. Add in the Hinch factor, and I'd be seriously considering it if I were Alex.

What I'm not super-clear on is why nobody wants to take Toronto's money. Does everyone just assume they'll be terrible once the Nepo Babies leave?

 

[bosox1534]

Posts like these make me really doubt a Casas trade is even remotely in the works. Even if there was a slight chance of him getting dealt, don’t you think you’d have someone else go on these PR things? It would look pretty bad in my eyes to have Casas go and interact with the community like this only to turn around and trade him. Seems like the media is really overblowing how available he is.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Posts like these make me really doubt a Casas trade is even remotely in the works. Even if there was a slight chance of him getting dealt, don’t you think you’d have someone else go on these PR things? It would look pretty bad in my eyes to have Casas go and interact with the community like this only to turn around and trade him. Seems like the media is really overblowing how available he is.

He could absolutely be doing these outings and they could trade him tomorrow. Has no bearing on what happens in the business of baseball.

 

[loneredseat]

Herrera is super interesting. His batted ball profile is incredible. He can frame and block. Throwing needs work. 24 years old with 4 years remaining. Arb in 2026.

His bat is real though and because he can catch he’s definitely incredible valuable.

Would be a pretty bold move and one I think would be pretty exciting and ultimately make the team better in 2025 and beyond.

Baseball Reference shows 11 games played (by Herrera) in 2022, 13 in 2023, 72 in 2024, and a free agent in 2030. Is this correct? Do they mean the beginning of the 2030 season meaning 5 years of control?

 

[bosox1534]

He could absolutely be doing these outings and they could trade him tomorrow. Has no bearing on what happens in the business of baseball.

I disagree.

 

[moondog80]

Baseball Reference shows 11 games played (by Herrera) in 2022, 13 in 2023, 72 in 2024, and a free agent in 2030. Is this correct? Do they mean the beginning of the 2030 season meaning 5 years of control?

That means he is a fee agent for the year 2030 and beyond -- under club control through 2029. We would get 5 seasons of him.

It confuses me too, don't feel bad.

 

[chrisfont9]

Pretty strong disagree that Detroit won't be competitive for the next couple of years, they made the playoffs this year and have some young players on the rise to go with a legit superstar. Add in the Hinch factor, and I'd be seriously considering it if I were Alex.

What I'm not super-clear on is why nobody wants to take Toronto's money. Does everyone just assume they'll be terrible once the Nepo Babies leave?

That and the taxes and having to clear immigration every time you hit/return from the road? That last one, not sure if the Jays have a special system set up but visiting teams often talk about this being exhausting.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

That and the taxes and having to clear immigration every time you hit/return from the road? That last one, not sure if the Jays have a special system set up but visiting teams often talk about this being exhausting.

Those aren't unique to this year as far as I know, though, and I don't remember them having this much trouble signing FAs in the past. Maybe it's those issues in combination with the murky outlook (and the recent last-place finish).

 

[SouthernBoSox]

That means he is a fee agent for the year 2030 and beyond -- under club control through 2029. We would get 5 seasons of him.

It confuses me too, don't feel bad.

That’s weird because Fangraphs has him at a 2029 free agent.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Seems like the media is really overblowing how available he is.

I agree on this point. The media IS overblowing how available Casas is. Would Breslow deal him in a very specific circumstance, yes, of course. Is he calling up other GMs and just asking them what they’d offer for Casas. No chance.

If they were actively trying to move him, no, I doubt he’d be at an event like that. If they were close to moving him, I also doubt they’d have asked him to attend. But his being there also does not mean he wouldn’t be traded this weekend if Breslow got exactly what he was looking for.

 

[bosox1534]

I agree on this point. The media IS overblowing how available Casas is. Would Breslow deal him in a very specific circumstance, yes, of course. Is he calling up other GMs and just asking them what they’d offer for Casas. No chance.

If they were actively trying to move him, no, I doubt he’d be at an event like that. If they were close to moving him, I also doubt they’d have asked him to attend. But his being there also does not mean he wouldn’t be traded this weekend if Breslow got exactly what he was looking for.

That’s fair, but every player could be traded at any time if the team receives exactly what they wanted, so I’m not sure that means Casas is any more likely to be moved than any other player in the league.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

Those aren't unique to this year as far as I know, though, and I don't remember them having this much trouble signing FAs in the past. Maybe it's those issues in combination with the murky outlook (and the recent last-place finish).

Well, this aged well.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

That’s fair, but every player could be traded at any time if the team receives exactly what they wanted, so I’m not sure that means Casas is any more likely to be moved than any other player in the league.

Maybe. But, just for an example…

I‘d bet other GMs in trade talks (Chicago) asked about Roman Anthony, and were told flat out he wasn’t available.

I‘d bet other GMs (Seattle, Pit maybe StL) asked on Casas and know roughly what it would take, and likely even had some conversations surrounding the framework of a deal.

I think that is a small but important distinction.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

View: https://twitter.com/chriscotillo/status/1877885778266648942?s=46


We’ll see

 

[joe dokes]

the largest possible defensive upgrade at 3b going from the least valuable 3b to the most.

Possibly accompanied by a gigantic and intolerable offensive dropoff. I dont want Bregman, but he probably has some good offensive years left. Arenado probably does not. No speed no power, 315 OBP. No thanks.

 

[bosockboy]

View: https://twitter.com/chriscotillo/status/1877885778266648942?s=46


We’ll see

Translation: Bregman/Profar.

 

[RS2004foreever]

Translation: Bregman/Profar.

Yep
Maybe scott

 

[SouthernBoSox]

Translation: Bregman/Profar.

Could be a trade too based on the way it’s worded.

 

[RI 2 VA Sox Fan]

Yep
Maybe scott

This

 

[chrisfont9]

Well, this aged well.

Hoffman? He was drafted by the Jays, probably has a soft spot for them. Also money.

 

[katnado]

Hoffman? He was drafted by the Jays, probably has a soft spot for them. Also money.

Signed with the Jays today

 

[chrisfont9]

Signed with the Jays today

Exactly

 

[c_clgh71]

Signed with the Jays today

Jeff Hoffman
TORRelief Pitcher#23
Robert Murray of Fansided reports that the Orioles backed out of a three-year, $40 million contract with right-hander Jeff Hoffman due to concerns about his shoulder.

 

[6-5 Sadler]

View: https://twitter.com/chriscotillo/status/1877885778266648942?s=46


We’ll see

This is a Tommy Kahnle tweet

 

[SouthernBoSox]

View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1878121098916548920?s=46


I couldn’t agree with this tweet more. Cementing Rafaela in center really makes the roster construction challenging. And I just don’t think he’s good enough of a player to justify that.

 

[Fishy1]

View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1878121098916548920?s=46


I couldn’t agree with this tweet more. Cementing Rafaela in center really makes the roster construction challenging. And I just don’t think he’s good enough of a player to justify that.

It's almost certainly what will happen. They used his versatility last year and they'll use it this year, no doubt, but unless he comes out absolutely raking he'll lose his job to Anthony. Because having a guy with a 3% BB rate and an OBP of .275 is going to be a drag on your offense, even in the 9 hole.

 

[pjheff]

I couldn’t agree with this tweet more. Cementing Rafaela in center really makes the roster construction challenging. And I just don’t think he’s good enough of a player to justify that.

The delta between Rafaela and Duran defensively in CF — if there is one — is infinitesimal compared to the one between Rafaela and the alternatives (like Anthony) offensively.

 

[YTF]

View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1878121098916548920?s=46


I couldn’t agree with this tweet more. Cementing Rafaela in center really makes the roster construction challenging. And I just don’t think he’s good enough of a player to justify that.

I honestly don't think anything concerning the OF is set in stone until we see how spring training shakes out.

 

[simplicio]

View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1878121098916548920?s=46


I couldn’t agree with this tweet more. Cementing Rafaela in center really makes the roster construction challenging. And I just don’t think he’s good enough of a player to justify that.

The info from Breslow that they see Ceddanne as regular CF is interesting because he's saying that with full knowledge of how well Duran played there. There's a good conversation to be had about why that is: do they grade defense differently? Do they project or have reason to believe in an improvement to his offense? Was Breslow's statement a posture for the sake of ongoing trade negotiations?

What Stats is doing is just presuming they're incompetent instead. To me, that's a lazy and dull take.

 

[apc020420129]

They also have neither an incumbent DH nor an incumbent 1B. This looks like a potential matchup. (They did tell Alcántara he wasn’t being moved, though.)

So, let’s say we can do something like Alcántara and reliever Calvin Faucher for Casas, Crawford, Yoshida, and Hamilton. That checks out in BTV and makes some sense for both sides.

Then I guess we sign Bregman for 5 years and move Devers to DH. Do you then ink Alonso to a short high AAV deal?

This would give us:

CF Duran L
3B Bregman R
DH Devers L
1B Alonso R
RF Abreu L
SS Story R
LF Anthony L
C Wong/Narvaez R
2B Grissom R

With Romy, Rafaela and Refsnyder on the bench. Campbell first call up in case of injury to basically anyone.

With an *insane* six man rotation: Alcántara Crochet Houck Bello Buehler Giolito.

And a very deep bullpen of Faucher Hendriks Slaten Chapman Whitlock Guerrero Wilson Bernardino

It’s likely an expensive team depending on what the FAs cost, but it does look like it projects better than the Yankees.

That lineup has me salivating especially thinking with they could do in Fenway!

But my head is telling me it will never even come close to reality