So what is our best case SP scenario for next season? I think we have definitely raised the rotation's ceiling, even if some of it is a little risky.
SP1: Crochet continues to develop and has a Cy Young Caliber season. 150+ innings with a FIP around 3
SP2: Houck shows last season was not a fluke, we get another 180 innings with a FIP around 3.20
SP3: Buehler bounces back and has a season resembling 2021, where he threw 207 innings with a 2.47 ERA/3.16 FIP, over 7 bWAR
SP4: Bello puts it together and has a full season with 180+ innings with an ERA around 3.5
SP5: Giolito is healthy and throws 160+ innings with an ERA/FIP around 3.80. I have low expectations for this guy, but the org must see something they like they think they can mold.
SP6: Crawford stays healthy, throws a ton of innings, has an ERA around 4.
I do not think Giolito is going to be any good next year, Bello and Crawford are probably the guys they were last year(which if fine), and Buehler is not gong to be 2021 good ever again. The upside on the Buehler signing is unlimited though. We have more pitchers that can throw over 100 innings which was our big issue last season. The offense is good and has the potential to be amazing if Campbell and Anthony get called up and perform at a high level. Projections are by nature conservative. Fangraphs projected Houck for 1.5 WAR before last season and 1.9 fWAR out of CF. The Yankees were an incredibly top heavy offense last year, lost Soto, and replaced Anthony Rizzo with 37 year old Paul Goldschmidt. I don't think this team is that far behind NY or Baltimore, the projected WAR difference is firmly within the margin of error.
SP1: Crochet continues to develop and has a Cy Young Caliber season. 150+ innings with a FIP around 3
SP2: Houck shows last season was not a fluke, we get another 180 innings with a FIP around 3.20
SP3: Buehler bounces back and has a season resembling 2021, where he threw 207 innings with a 2.47 ERA/3.16 FIP, over 7 bWAR
SP4: Bello puts it together and has a full season with 180+ innings with an ERA around 3.5
SP5: Giolito is healthy and throws 160+ innings with an ERA/FIP around 3.80. I have low expectations for this guy, but the org must see something they like they think they can mold.
SP6: Crawford stays healthy, throws a ton of innings, has an ERA around 4.
I do not think Giolito is going to be any good next year, Bello and Crawford are probably the guys they were last year(which if fine), and Buehler is not gong to be 2021 good ever again. The upside on the Buehler signing is unlimited though. We have more pitchers that can throw over 100 innings which was our big issue last season. The offense is good and has the potential to be amazing if Campbell and Anthony get called up and perform at a high level. Projections are by nature conservative. Fangraphs projected Houck for 1.5 WAR before last season and 1.9 fWAR out of CF. The Yankees were an incredibly top heavy offense last year, lost Soto, and replaced Anthony Rizzo with 37 year old Paul Goldschmidt. I don't think this team is that far behind NY or Baltimore, the projected WAR difference is firmly within the margin of error.