Much like Newman, the Sox are not “Ready to deliver”– The 2025 Offseason News (& rumors?) Thread

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Regarding Yoshida's defense.....I cant find it right now, but I am pretty sure I remember Cora saying that the decision not to play him in the OF was made before his injury. If that decision was made in, let say, Spring '24, that would be before Duran and Abreu became gold-glovers. Assuming they really are that good.....and assuming Rafaela is still that good.....I suppose it's possible that 2 GG in CF and RF *might* allow a healthy Yoshida to play some LF this year. (Much in the same way that a healthy Story probably helps the 2B and 3Bmen be a bit better.)

If Cora said that (and I believe he probably did say something to that effect), he said it when his outfield group was O'Neill, Duran, Rafaela, and Abreu. And at the start of the year, Duran was easily the weak link in that group so it made sense that Yoshida wasn't needed in the outfield all that much. He did play an inning in LF in April which suggests that it wasn't a staunch no-outfield-at-all plan. Then he hurt his shoulder (and his hand) and he was never put out there again, and there were probably opportunities to do so had he been healthy. Among those that got 1-2 innings of outfield work last year were Connor Wong, Enmanuel Valdez, and Jamie Westbrook...were they really better choices than a guy who's spent his whole career playing the outfield?

 

[Apisith]

Alcantara for Casas, Devers to 1B, Bregman for 6 years, Crawford for relievers?

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Great post. What people are missing is that the ability to hit RH pitching is infinitely more valuable than hitting LH. The top two team OPS vs RH last year were the Yankees and Dodgers that is no coincidence (Red Sox were 6th). It is also why someone like Joc Pederson and Yoshida, are so much more valuable than a Refsnyder or Grichuck. If Abreu, Duran and Casas "eventually learn to hit lefties" . Not sure what that means but if that means improving their OPS against them by 100-200 OPS then they are all looking at Juan Soto type contracts.

I apologize to @Cassvt2023 and anyone else for another post about how the Sox need players that can hit BOTH sides of the mound, but I do think it's important to draw a distinction between the folks that want a right handed hitter that mashes lefties (not me) and the folks that think the team needs more "balance" as in ability for one player to hit both side of the mound, regardless of if they're hitting right handed or left handed (this is my stance).

So I'll say : the Sox need players that can hit both sides of the plate at a significantly above average level, they don't have them. If you're sick of my posts, please feel free to stop reading here, I won't know or be offended.





To further use the Dodgers as an example - and also I understand that it's unfair to say "just go be the Dodgers" so that isn't my point. But look at their line up regulars and their career splits.

Position, career wRC+ splits (and I'm not bothering to include what side of the plate the hitter hits from, because I agree that doesn't matter)

C - Will Smith 120/126
1b - Freddie Freeman 113/151
"Util" - Betts 144/138
3b - Muncy 118/127
OF - Hernandez 113/140
DH - Ohtani 127/165

*Fun note on the Dodgers, only one of these players is home grown, forgot Muncy was in Oakland.*

So they have 6 "core" hitters in their line up that can be played every day, allowing Roberts to mix and match and integrate rookies and role players as necessary to the remaining 3 spots (Pages, Hernandez, Rojas, Lux, Edman, whatever). The WORST of their core hitters against same handed pitching were Freeman (113 vs LHP) and Teoscar (113vsRHP)

Now lets look at the 2007 Red Sox (because we all believe, or at least want to believe, that Anthony and Campbell are at minimum Dustin Pedroia - which would be an incredible win), and their core 6 hitters.
C - Varitek 93/121
1b - Youkilis 140/122
3b- Lowell 119/107
LF - Manny 160/153
RF - Drew 101/135
DH - Ortiz 111/161




Contrast that with the 6 "regulars" for Boston and in the interest of small sample sizes, I'll just go ahead assume these things happen because, why not:
1) Yoshida's 2023 is more like his talent level and give him that
2) Durran is going to be the 2024 stud for the rest of his career
3) Abreu can get to be 2024 Duran against LHPs because why not.
4) Story at age 32 is going to magically revert to the guy he was in Colorado

1b - Casas 109/122
3b - Devers 98/137
SS - Story 139/95
DH - Yoshida 103/112
CF - Duran 86/148
RF - Abreu 85 /126 (his career line is 48/126)

Even if we assume what might not be the absolute best case scenario for Abreu, Yoshida, Duran and Story, but is a pretty bullish one in that Abreu becomes 2024 Duran vs LHP, Yoshida is the guy he was in 2023 for the rest of his career AND Story goes back to being the guy he was, but hasn't been in about 4 years, the Red Sox STILL have no regulars against same handed pitching as good as the Dodgers worst regulars against same handed pitching.


In summation to what has actually happened over their careers to date, relative to the Dodgers:

The Red Sox BEST regular against same handed pitching (Casas) hasn't been as good as the two worst regulars against same handed pitching for LAD (Freeman and Hernandez).

Relative to the 2007 Red Sox
You have "Drew" (Devers)
You have "Lowell" (Casas)
Maybe you even get "Lowell" twice (Yoshida)
You maybe have "Tek" (Story)

You don't have Manny, Ortiz, or even Youk.

So lets just go ahead and make Anthony a 122/140 guy like Youk and make Campbell into Pedroia (again, I think anyone would take this in one second) and you're STILL missing the Ortiz and Ramirez heart of the order.





I apologize again for the long post and for making yet another post about the major issue I see with the Red Sox line up (one and maybe two "great" hitters in Devers and Casas, but not exactly Manny and Ortiz or Ohtani and Freeman) then a lot of "good" but not "great" hitters IF things go really well, that all share a similar flaw (same handed pitchers).



My overall point remains - looking at the largest data sample sizes (career numbers) the Red Sox have a serious problem in that their entire roster (minus Casas) is very susceptible to same handed pitching. I'm not saying the team stinks or the line up stinks. I'm saying it's "good" but it's not "great" and there are plenty of places where they could stand to improve. At least if the goal remains to win the World Series (which it does for me, YMMV, and that's fine).

They need multiple players that can hit both sides of the plate at a significantly above average level, they don't have them (or at least not ones that have shown this over the largest MLB sample size we have for these players).

 

[SouthernBoSox]

Alcantara for Casas, Devers to 1B, Bregman for 6 years, Crawford for relievers?

If you can get Alcantara for a deal centered around Casas you kinda just have to do it and figure out the rest of the moving pieces later. Too much talent, upside, contract value to not make an effort to get.

Also, and this is kinda of interesting, I wonder if they would take Yoshida? They have to spend 20+ million or they aren’t going to hit their numbers to avoid a grievance.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

Alcantara for Casas, Devers to 1B, Bregman for 6 years, Crawford for relievers?

As little as I want to consider trading Casas, I simply don't see a scenario in which we add the RHH we need without displacing him, Devers, and Yoshida. No one, rightfully, is seriously suggesting trading Devers, but I keep seeing Casas' name bandied around. Trading him for a top-tier SP would at least be understandable. If Seattle is not going to budge on Kirby/Gilbert or even Woo, Alcantara is a pretty nice option. Thought he was controlled for more than he is, but 2 years and a club option isn't nothing.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

If you can get Alcantara for a deal centered around Casas you kinda just have to do it and figure out the rest of the moving pieces later. Too much talent, upside, contract value to not make an effort to get.

Also, and this is kinda of interesting, I wonder if they would take Yoshida? They have to spend 20+ million or they aren’t going to hit their numbers to avoid a grievance.

If they need to add payroll, moving Alcantara seems counterproductive to that aim. I could see where they might take Yoshida to comply with league salary rules, but it wouldn't make a lot of sense to do so while also shedding Alcantara's money. It'd be a net gain of only ~$7M.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

Odd since the post I was responding to said he was a DFA candidate, and thats not the first time someone has said that.

I didn't see that post, but the idea of DFAing Yoshida in the next year is not going to happen and probably isn't worth commenting on.

 

[nvalvo]

If you can get Alcantara for a deal centered around Casas you kinda just have to do it and figure out the rest of the moving pieces later. Too much talent, upside, contract value to not make an effort to get.

Also, and this is kinda of interesting, I wonder if they would take Yoshida? They have to spend 20+ million or they aren’t going to hit their numbers to avoid a grievance.

They also have neither an incumbent DH nor an incumbent 1B. This looks like a potential matchup. (They did tell Alcántara he wasn’t being moved, though.)

So, let’s say we can do something like Alcántara and reliever Calvin Faucher for Casas, Crawford, Yoshida, and Hamilton. That checks out in BTV and makes some sense for both sides.

Then I guess we sign Bregman for 5 years and move Devers to DH. Do you then ink Alonso to a short high AAV deal?

This would give us:

CF Duran L
3B Bregman R
DH Devers L
1B Alonso R
RF Abreu L
SS Story R
LF Anthony L
C Wong/Narvaez R
2B Grissom R

With Romy, Rafaela and Refsnyder on the bench. Campbell first call up in case of injury to basically anyone.

With an *insane* six man rotation: Alcántara Crochet Houck Bello Buehler Giolito.

And a very deep bullpen of Faucher Hendriks Slaten Chapman Whitlock Guerrero Wilson Bernardino

It’s likely an expensive team depending on what the FAs cost, but it does look like it projects better than the Yankees.

 

[moondog80]

If Miami (who lost 100 games in 2024) is trading Alcantara, wouldn’t they want someone who hasn’t already burned through 2 of his pre-arb years? Trading for Casas is a move that for a team that is in win-now mode but also has some budget constraints.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

They also have neither an incumbent DH nor an incumbent 1B. This looks like a potential matchup. (They did tell Alcántara he wasn’t being moved, though.)

So, let’s say we can do something like Alcántara and reliever Calvin Faucher for Casas, Crawford, Yoshida, and Hamilton. That checks out in BTV and makes some sense for both sides.

Then I guess we sign Bregman for 5 years and move Devers to DH. Do you then ink Alonso to a short high AAV deal?

This would give us:

CF Duran L
3B Bregman R
DH Devers L
1B Alonso R
RF Abreu L
SS Story R
LF Anthony L
C Wong/Narvaez R
2B Grissom R

With Romy, Rafaela and Refsnyder on the bench. Campbell first call up in case of injury to basically anyone.

With an *insane* six man rotation: Alcántara Crochet Houck Bello Buehler Giolito.

And a very deep bullpen of Faucher Hendriks Slaten Chapman Whitlock Guerrero Wilson Bernardino

It’s likely an expensive team depending on what the FAs cost, but it does look like it projects better than the Yankees.

Yea, I mean this is probably the best team in the AL and the rotation is good enough to win it all.

 

[YTF]

They also have neither an incumbent DH nor an incumbent 1B. This looks like a potential matchup. (They did tell Alcántara he wasn’t being moved, though.)

So, let’s say we can do something like Alcántara and reliever Calvin Faucher for Casas, Crawford, Yoshida, and Hamilton. That checks out in BTV and makes some sense for both sides.

Then I guess we sign Bregman for 5 years and move Devers to DH. Do you then ink Alonso to a short high AAV deal?

This would give us:

CF Duran L
3B Bregman R
DH Devers L
1B Alonso R
RF Abreu L
SS Story R
LF Anthony L
C Wong/Narvaez R
2B Grissom R

With Romy, Rafaela and Refsnyder on the bench. Campbell first call up in case of injury to basically anyone.

With an *insane* six man rotation: Alcántara Crochet Houck Bello Buehler Giolito.

And a very deep bullpen of Faucher Hendriks Slaten Chapman Whitlock Guerrero Wilson Bernardino

It’s likely an expensive team depending on what the FAs cost, but it does look like it projects better than the Yankees.

I know it's silly season, but let me add my 2 cents. If you do this particular deal you've Alcantrara signed through at $11.2M for '25 and '26 with a team option for '27 at $21M . Extend Crochet and you've got a very nice rotation for the next 3 years at least. This deal would move two lefties in Casas and Yoshida and is likely to not impede the progression of Anthony and Grissom. If Breslow is able to swing it, Bregman and Alonso for 4 years max along with the additions of Campbell and Anthony has the ability to transform this team into a serious contender for at least 3-4 year period. You're also adding another good cost controlled arm in Faucher. I haven't forgotten about how or where Marcelo Mayer fits into all of this, but I'm sure it could be sorted. The biggest question here outside of if Miami would do this deal or one similar is that with the $50+ that the team is likely to have to commit to Alcantara, Bregman and Alonso (not to mention whatever agreement the team might agree to with Crochet) will ownership see this as an investment that they are willing to make? The projected roster below is fairly flexible and doesn't look too shabby. Admittedly there are 14 position players listed, but a couple of these guys can either start the season in WOOstah or be optioned during the season.

C Wong/Narvaez
1B Alonso/Romy/RFsnyder
2B Grissom/Campbell/Romy
SS Story/Rafaela/Romy
3B Bregman/Devers/Romy
DH Devers
LF Duran/Anthony/RFsnyder
CF Rafaela/Duran
RF Abreau/Anthony/RFsnyder

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Yea, I mean this is probably the best team in the AL and the rotation is good enough to win it all.

So... then they'll have two $30+M guys in Devers and Bregman. Assuming another $27.5M for Alonso. Story at $25M. Nevermind all the other guys on the roster... you really think that the way Henry has operated, that there'll be any chance in hell he'll find enough money in his couch cushions to pay for a 5 year deal for Crochet? And money for extensions for Duran? Long term contracts for Anthony? Campbell?

This just isn't going to happen and some of the fantasy stuff is just getting boring

 

[bosox1534]

Damn.

 

[Dewey'sCannon]

If Miami (who lost 100 games in 2024) is trading Alcantara, wouldn’t they want someone who hasn’t already burned through 2 of his pre-arb years? Trading for Casas is a move that for a team that is in win-now mode but also has some budget constraints.

I think this is probably true. And I would also prefer to try to keep Casas and include others in the deal instead. If bringing on Alcantara, we can certainly include at least Crawford, and I think Abreu is far more expendable (though less valuable) than Casas. SO we'd probably have to include some prospects, and I could see Miami wanting one of the big 3 as part of the package. Not sure if any of our other prospects or some combination of them (or Grissom or Hamilton) it would take to get this done.

But still not excited about bringing in Bregman on a six-year deal. And I doubt Breslow is either.

 

[20Ks]

I apologize to @Cassvt2023 and anyone else for another post about how the Sox need players that can hit BOTH sides of the mound, but I do think it's important to draw a distinction between the folks that want a right handed hitter that mashes lefties (not me) and the folks that think the team needs more "balance" as in ability for one player to hit both side of the mound, regardless of if they're hitting right handed or left handed (this is my stance).

So I'll say : the Sox need players that can hit both sides of the plate at a significantly above average level, they don't have them. If you're sick of my posts, please feel free to stop reading here, I won't know or be offended.





To further use the Dodgers as an example - and also I understand that it's unfair to say "just go be the Dodgers" so that isn't my point. But look at their line up regulars and their career splits.

Position, career wRC+ splits (and I'm not bothering to include what side of the plate the hitter hits from, because I agree that doesn't matter)

C - Will Smith 120/126
1b - Freddie Freeman 113/151
"Util" - Betts 144/138
3b - Muncy 118/127
OF - Hernandez 113/140
DH - Ohtani 127/165

*Fun note on the Dodgers, only one of these players is home grown, forgot Muncy was in Oakland.*

So they have 6 "core" hitters in their line up that can be played every day, allowing Roberts to mix and match and integrate rookies and role players as necessary to the remaining 3 spots (Pages, Hernandez, Rojas, Lux, Edman, whatever). The WORST of their core hitters against same handed pitching were Freeman (113 vs LHP) and Teoscar (113vsRHP)

Now lets look at the 2007 Red Sox (because we all believe, or at least want to believe, that Anthony and Campbell are at minimum Dustin Pedroia - which would be an incredible win), and their core 6 hitters.
C - Varitek 93/121
1b - Youkilis 140/122
3b- Lowell 119/107
LF - Manny 160/153
RF - Drew 101/135
DH - Ortiz 111/161




Contrast that with the 6 "regulars" for Boston and in the interest of small sample sizes, I'll just go ahead assume these things happen because, why not:
1) Yoshida's 2023 is more like his talent level and give him that
2) Durran is going to be the 2024 stud for the rest of his career
3) Abreu can get to be 2024 Duran against LHPs because why not.
4) Story at age 32 is going to magically revert to the guy he was in Colorado

1b - Casas 109/122
3b - Devers 98/137
SS - Story 139/95
DH - Yoshida 103/112
CF - Duran 86/148
RF - Abreu 85 /126 (his career line is 48/126)

Even if we assume what might not be the absolute best case scenario for Abreu, Yoshida, Duran and Story, but is a pretty bullish one in that Abreu becomes 2024 Duran vs LHP, Yoshida is the guy he was in 2023 for the rest of his career AND Story goes back to being the guy he was, but hasn't been in about 4 years, the Red Sox STILL have no regulars against same handed pitching as good as the Dodgers worst regulars against same handed pitching.


In summation to what has actually happened over their careers to date, relative to the Dodgers:

The Red Sox BEST regular against same handed pitching (Casas) hasn't been as good as the two worst regulars against same handed pitching for LAD (Freeman and Hernandez).

Relative to the 2007 Red Sox
You have "Drew" (Devers)
You have "Lowell" (Casas)
Maybe you even get "Lowell" twice (Yoshida)
You maybe have "Tek" (Story)

You don't have Manny, Ortiz, or even Youk.

So lets just go ahead and make Anthony a 122/140 guy like Youk and make Campbell into Pedroia (again, I think anyone would take this in one second) and you're STILL missing the Ortiz and Ramirez heart of the order.





I apologize again for the long post and for making yet another post about the major issue I see with the Red Sox line up (one and maybe two "great" hitters in Devers and Casas, but not exactly Manny and Ortiz or Ohtani and Freeman) then a lot of "good" but not "great" hitters IF things go really well, that all share a similar flaw (same handed pitchers).



My overall point remains - looking at the largest data sample sizes (career numbers) the Red Sox have a serious problem in that their entire roster (minus Casas) is very susceptible to same handed pitching. I'm not saying the team stinks or the line up stinks. I'm saying it's "good" but it's not "great" and there are plenty of places where they could stand to improve. At least if the goal remains to win the World Series (which it does for me, YMMV, and that's fine).

They need multiple players that can hit both sides of the plate at a significantly above average level, they don't have them (or at least not ones that have shown this over the largest MLB sample size we have for these players).

No kidding you want hitters that can hit both well. They are very expensive. Those 5 Dodgers are more in payroll than 15 other teams totals. They make more than Oak and Pit total payrolls combined. Not every team can do that, thats why looking for market inefficiencies with other metrics is so important.

 

[Alex Cole's Rec Specs]

If Miami (who lost 100 games in 2024) is trading Alcantara, wouldn’t they want someone who hasn’t already burned through 2 of his pre-arb years? Trading for Casas is a move that for a team that is in win-now mode but also has some budget constraints.

I agree. Using Casas to trade for Alcantara would require a third team. I know it's tired to bring up this team at this point in the offseason, but the Mariners still have a hole at 1B and have plenty of prospects to interest a (perpetually) rebuilding team like the Marlins.

 

[nvalvo]

All of this hinges on Alcantara actually being available, which I sort of doubt. But if he is…

I don’t think Casas is a bad fit for them. They had a *lot* of pitching on the IL (take a look at their 2023 rotation), so they might get good again in a hurry as guys recover. And they actually *need* to spend more at some point; why not extend the local kid?

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

No kidding you want hitters that can hit both well. They are very expensive. Those 5 Dodgers are more in payroll than 15 other teams totals. They make more than Oak and Pit total payrolls combined. Not every team can do that, thats why looking for market inefficiencies with other metrics is so important.

Are they?

CWalker has a career 114/112 split and he signed for $22m AAV ($66m total)
Hernandez has a career 140/113 split (same contract as CWalker)
NLowe (traded this winter) is 117/133
Alonso is 130/131 (unsigned)
Bregman last year (and I admit he's not going to back to his insanely good Houston days) was 100/125
Santander is 111/116

I never expected they'd get Soto of course, but two of those guys went for less than $70m and one was acquired for whoever the heck Robert Garcia is.



There were (and are still) many feasible options for the Red Sox to get someone that handles both sides of the plate well. I don't expect them to land ALL of these kinds of players in one off-season (LAD for instance got Mookie then Freeman then Ohtani and Hernandez). I don't think asking for them to land one and make some other moves to accommodate it is being horribly entitled or unreasonable, but maybe it is.

Anyhow, I'll let you have the last word if you'd like it and stop now because people know where I stand and I don't want to clutter the board with the same complaint any more than I have.

 

[simplicio]

Are they?

CWalker has a career 114/112 split and he signed for $22m AAV ($66m total)
Hernandez has a career 140/113 split (same contract as CWalker)
NLowe (traded this winter) is 117/133
Alonso is 130/131 (unsigned)
Bregman last year (and I admit he's not going to back to his insanely good Houston days) was 100/125
Santander is 111/116

I never expected they'd get Soto of course, but two of those guys went for less than $70m and one was acquired for whoever the heck Robert Garcia is.



There were (and are still) many feasible options for the Red Sox to get someone that handles both sides of the plate well. I don't expect them to land ALL of these kinds of players in one off-season (LAD for instance got Mookie then Freeman then Ohtani and Hernandez). I don't think asking for them to land one and make some other moves to accommodate it is being horribly entitled or unreasonable, but maybe it is.

Anyhow, I'll let you have the last word if you'd like it and stop now because people know where I stand and I don't want to clutter the board with the same complaint any more than I have.

LAD has to pay so much because their guys aren't all 1B and DH like your list (sans Bregman). We already have a 1B without a major splits issue.

 

[chawson]

Are they?

CWalker has a career 114/112 split and he signed for $22m AAV ($66m total)
Hernandez has a career 140/113 split (same contract as CWalker)
NLowe (traded this winter) is 117/133
Alonso is 130/131 (unsigned)
Bregman last year (and I admit he's not going to back to his insanely good Houston days) was 100/125
Santander is 111/116

I never expected they'd get Soto of course, but two of those guys went for less than $70m and one was acquired for whoever the heck Robert Garcia is.



There were (and are still) many feasible options for the Red Sox to get someone that handles both sides of the plate well. I don't expect them to land ALL of these kinds of players in one off-season (LAD for instance got Mookie then Freeman then Ohtani and Hernandez). I don't think asking for them to land one and make some other moves to accommodate it is being horribly entitled or unreasonable, but maybe it is.

Anyhow, I'll let you have the last word if you'd like it and stop now because people know where I stand and I don't want to clutter the board with the same complaint any more than I have.

This handedness thing is really not this important, and I think you're prioritizing it at the expense of many, many factors.

These are good players you’ve listed, but they’re older and either par or worse versions of players we already have at their positions. Do you want us to jettison Triston Casas, who has better numbers by the metrics you're touting, for a guy 10 years older in Christian Walker? Is a "career 113 wRC+ equally split" some kind of special trait? Nate Lowe barely cracked a .400 SLG last year — is that more special because he was able to do it equally against RHP vs. LHP?

Steamer, FWIW, projects Yoshida to hit slightly better in 2025 than Teoscar Hernández (I know you feel otherwise), 117 wRC+ to 116 wRC+. Is replacing one with the other worth the maybe $100-120 million delta between them, factoring Teoscar’s salary and what you want the Sox to eat to dump Yoshida?

 

[YTF]

So... then they'll have two $30+M guys in Devers and Bregman. Assuming another $27.5M for Alonso. Story at $25M. Nevermind all the other guys on the roster... you really think that the way Henry has operated, that there'll be any chance in hell he'll find enough money in his couch cushions to pay for a 5 year deal for Crochet? And money for extensions for Duran? Long term contracts for Anthony? Campbell?

This just isn't going to happen and some of the fantasy stuff is just getting boring

Again, just because it's silly season...The biggest public aversion to spending money has been concerning FA pitchers over 30 on long term deals. If Breslow is able to swing this or something similar the team will have secured what looks to be an outstanding, young staff that will be under team control for at least 3-4 years. Whatever extension Crochet might sign should still be seen as pretty affordable in the first two years while affording Crochet a huge bump in salary. Let's call year one between $7.5-$10M and year two at $10-$15M. Yoshida's and Crawford's combined salaries of $21.5M should cover just about all of Alcantara and Crochet's combined salaries for this season and well over half of it next season. Bregman and Alonso (let's call that $60M, though I think in might be slightly less) combined probably come in at less than $15M more than the reported final offer for Soto. I think a strong argument can be made that IF the team is truly willing to spend up, this is a situation where they might consider doing so.

As for extending others...Duran is under team control for the next 4 seasons at which time he'll be 32. As others here have pointed out, he might not be worth extending. Especially when you consider that so much of his game is predicated on his speed. I can't see Anthony and Campbell being considered for extensions at least until next off-season. In this scenario, if all goes as one might hope (and it doesn't always) the team shouldn't be in the market for a huge FA splash in going into '26 and should have a few small expiring contracts

 

[kazuneko]

But still not excited about bringing in Bregman on a six-year deal. And I doubt Breslow is either.

And according to our own poll on this subject less than 5% of SOSH wants him on a 6+ year deal. So I think we’re pretty much all in agreement on that. That said, 74% of the poll want him on a 3 year/$75 million deal.
Probably won’t happen but it’s not impossible. Let’s remember Chapman wanted 6+ years last offseason and ended up with a 1 year/$18 million dollar contract.

 

[Yo La Tengo]

I apologize to @Cassvt2023 and anyone else for another post about how the Sox need players that can hit BOTH sides of the mound, but I do think it's important to draw a distinction between the folks that want a right handed hitter that mashes lefties (not me) and the folks that think the team needs more "balance" as in ability for one player to hit both side of the mound, regardless of if they're hitting right handed or left handed (this is my stance).

So I'll say : the Sox need players that can hit both sides of the plate at a significantly above average level, they don't have them. If you're sick of my posts, please feel free to stop reading here, I won't know or be offended.





To further use the Dodgers as an example - and also I understand that it's unfair to say "just go be the Dodgers" so that isn't my point. But look at their line up regulars and their career splits.

Position, career wRC+ splits (and I'm not bothering to include what side of the plate the hitter hits from, because I agree that doesn't matter)

C - Will Smith 120/126
1b - Freddie Freeman 113/151
"Util" - Betts 144/138
3b - Muncy 118/127
OF - Hernandez 113/140
DH - Ohtani 127/165

*Fun note on the Dodgers, only one of these players is home grown, forgot Muncy was in Oakland.*

So they have 6 "core" hitters in their line up that can be played every day, allowing Roberts to mix and match and integrate rookies and role players as necessary to the remaining 3 spots (Pages, Hernandez, Rojas, Lux, Edman, whatever). The WORST of their core hitters against same handed pitching were Freeman (113 vs LHP) and Teoscar (113vsRHP)

Now lets look at the 2007 Red Sox (because we all believe, or at least want to believe, that Anthony and Campbell are at minimum Dustin Pedroia - which would be an incredible win), and their core 6 hitters.
C - Varitek 93/121
1b - Youkilis 140/122
3b- Lowell 119/107
LF - Manny 160/153
RF - Drew 101/135
DH - Ortiz 111/161




Contrast that with the 6 "regulars" for Boston and in the interest of small sample sizes, I'll just go ahead assume these things happen because, why not:
1) Yoshida's 2023 is more like his talent level and give him that
2) Durran is going to be the 2024 stud for the rest of his career
3) Abreu can get to be 2024 Duran against LHPs because why not.
4) Story at age 32 is going to magically revert to the guy he was in Colorado

1b - Casas 109/122
3b - Devers 98/137
SS - Story 139/95
DH - Yoshida 103/112
CF - Duran 86/148
RF - Abreu 85 /126 (his career line is 48/126)

Even if we assume what might not be the absolute best case scenario for Abreu, Yoshida, Duran and Story, but is a pretty bullish one in that Abreu becomes 2024 Duran vs LHP, Yoshida is the guy he was in 2023 for the rest of his career AND Story goes back to being the guy he was, but hasn't been in about 4 years, the Red Sox STILL have no regulars against same handed pitching as good as the Dodgers worst regulars against same handed pitching.


In summation to what has actually happened over their careers to date, relative to the Dodgers:

The Red Sox BEST regular against same handed pitching (Casas) hasn't been as good as the two worst regulars against same handed pitching for LAD (Freeman and Hernandez).

Relative to the 2007 Red Sox
You have "Drew" (Devers)
You have "Lowell" (Casas)
Maybe you even get "Lowell" twice (Yoshida)
You maybe have "Tek" (Story)

You don't have Manny, Ortiz, or even Youk.

So lets just go ahead and make Anthony a 122/140 guy like Youk and make Campbell into Pedroia (again, I think anyone would take this in one second) and you're STILL missing the Ortiz and Ramirez heart of the order.





I apologize again for the long post and for making yet another post about the major issue I see with the Red Sox line up (one and maybe two "great" hitters in Devers and Casas, but not exactly Manny and Ortiz or Ohtani and Freeman) then a lot of "good" but not "great" hitters IF things go really well, that all share a similar flaw (same handed pitchers).



My overall point remains - looking at the largest data sample sizes (career numbers) the Red Sox have a serious problem in that their entire roster (minus Casas) is very susceptible to same handed pitching. I'm not saying the team stinks or the line up stinks. I'm saying it's "good" but it's not "great" and there are plenty of places where they could stand to improve. At least if the goal remains to win the World Series (which it does for me, YMMV, and that's fine).

They need multiple players that can hit both sides of the plate at a significantly above average level, they don't have them (or at least not ones that have shown this over the largest MLB sample size we have for these players).

Is your concern generally about using the bench to adjust the lineup for match-up purposes? Or do you think that the current platoon options just aren't good enough? I'm in full agreement that it would be optimal to have really good hitters who thrive against both LHP and RHP. But those players are relatively rare and really expensive. So, yes, look to draft, trade for, and sign those dominant types of players when possible, but in the meantime, manipulate match ups as best as possible.

Here is an effort at that approach (LHP/RHP):

C- Wong/Catcher 145/???
1b - Casas 114/129 (career)
2b- Grissom/Campbell ???
3b - Devers 98/137 (higher against LHP in 2021-2023)
SS - Story ??? who knows at this point
DH - Romy/Yoshida 142 (last year)/112 (134 v RHP last year)
LF- Rafaela/Anthony/Campbell ???
CF - Duran 86/148 (98 against LHP in 2023)
RF - Refsnyder/Abreu ~157 (last 3 years) /126

This looks... pretty good. Not as good as last year's Dodgers team and not as good as the 2007 Red Sox. But good enough to make the playoffs and then make things interesting.

I continue to hope they find a catcher who hits RHP with good defensive skills. And the question looms of what the bench should look like, which will depend on what the starting lineup looks like.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Is your concern generally about using the bench to adjust the lineup for match-up purposes? Or do you think that the current platoon options just aren't good enough? I'm in full agreement that it would be optimal to have really good hitters who thrive against both LHP and RHP. But those players are relatively rare and really expensive. So, yes, look to draft, trade for, and sign those dominant types of players when possible, but in the meantime, manipulate match ups as best as possible.

Here is an effort at that approach (LHP/RHP):

C- Wong/Catcher 145/???
1b - Casas 114/129 (career)
2b- Grissom/Campbell ???
3b - Devers 98/137 (higher against LHP in 2021-2023)
SS - Story ??? who knows at this point
DH - Romy/Yoshida 142 (last year)/112 (134 v RHP last year)
LF- Rafaela/Anthony/Campbell ???
CF - Duran 86/148 (98 against LHP in 2023)
RF - Refsnyder/Abreu ~157 (last 3 years) /126

This looks... pretty good. Not as good as last year's Dodgers team and not as good as the 2007 Red Sox. But good enough to make the playoffs and then make things interesting.

I continue to hope they find a catcher who hits RHP with good defensive skills. And the question looms of what the bench should look like, which will depend on what the starting lineup looks like.

Just to answer direct questions or points because I respect the opinions of the posters and don't want to ignore them. Apologies to @Cassvt2023 and others for continuing this line of discussion:


It's the bolded. If it were one or two players with this issue, it'd be fine. You have the entire line up (minus Casas) that over the course of their entire MLB careers have been below average against one side of the plate or the other. I think that makes the line up too susceptible to good managers with good bullpens (which you generally have in the post season). Current platoon options are good against opposite side but they also suck against same handed pitching, so a good manager can generally navigate that as the game gets late and close. Because they all have the same problem (aside from Casas) - facing same handed pitching.

I know people will say Abreu only had 75 PA (or whatever) against LHPs, but he's trended down, down, down each time he's moved up a level in terms of facing LHPs (.862/.841 in 2021 High A; .853/.775 in 2022 AA; .960/.739 in 2023 AAA; .842/.514 in MLB). Optimistically (and maybe realistically) I think he can get up to be around what I'll call and 85 wRC+ against LHP - which would be both a MASSIVE improvement and still well below average.

I think there are just too many players with the same issue (inability to hit both sides of the mound).

I agree they can be expensive, which is why I think this is (or at least should have been) a good year to get one.

They could have done it in LF and moved Abreu for something really good, plugging Anthony in to RF. I suppose you still could (Santander); They could have done it at DH (CWalker, Alonso) and moved on from Yoshida; They could still do it at 3b (Bregman) but this would of course involve moving on from Yoshida as well (because while I think Yoshida is a good hitter, I think it goes Devers to Casas to Yoshida, and Casas probably has the most upside). I think this year was a really good opportunity to fix it from at least one position (Abreu or Yoshida). Obviously you'd get a hell of a lot more in return on trading Abreu than Yoshida, but there are also probably more risks there too.

This handedness thing is really not this important, and I think you're prioritizing it at the expense of many, many factors.

These are good players you’ve listed, but they’re older and either par or worse versions of players we already have at their positions. Do you want us to jettison Triston Casas, who has better numbers by the metrics you're touting, for a guy 10 years older in Christian Walker? Is a "career 113 wRC+ equally split" some kind of special trait? Nate Lowe barely cracked a .400 SLG last year — is that more special because he was able to do it equally against RHP vs. LHP?

Steamer, FWIW, projects Yoshida to hit slightly better in 2025 than Teoscar Hernández (I know you feel otherwise), 117 wRC+ to 116 wRC+. Is replacing one with the other worth the maybe $100-120 million delta between them, factoring Teoscar’s salary and what you want the Sox to eat to dump Yoshida?

Just to be clear, do you not think it's important for someone to be able to hit RHP and LHP? Because, I'm NOT saying there is a problem because they're all LHH, Freeman is a LHH and has a 113 wRC+ for his career against LHPs. That isn't a problem, obviously. More realistically, JD Drew was a 101 wRC+ hitter against LHP, so not really a problem - and yes, I think even FSRedbird can go and spend to get an equivalent of JD Drew. I'm saying there IS a problem because they're all LHH that can't really hit LHP. If they were all RHH that couldn't hit LHP at all, that'd be an issue too.

But just to not rag on Yoshida any more (because like I've said, I don't think he stinks, I think he's a bad fit, but)

Boston could have probably given Hernandez 3/$75m/$25m, played him in LF. Then trade Abreu + for something good (build a package for @simplicio guy Murphy; go get your guy Chandler - I adore him too - build something around landing Harry Ford or Munoz from Seattle, whatever).

Duran
Story
Devers
Hernandez (you could STILL go Santander there, who is a little less bad in the OF than Yoshida, at least per FG) and stick him in LF since he played the "small field" in Baltimore, which for them is RF.
Casas
Yoshida
Wong (or maybe Murphy)
Anthony
Campbell

If you go the Munoz route (Seattle) instead of Murphy (Atlanta), now you've fixed the bullpen too:

Munoz, Hendriks, Chapman, Slaten, Crawford. I'll take my shots with that...

Now you only need to worry about the Ref/Yoshida platoon and not trying to clone Ref so he can spell both Yoshida and Abreu. AND if Yoshida can be the 103 wRC+ guy against LHPs he was in 2023 (I don't think that is likely, but I do think it's realistic to say he might be) then you're even better served because you can start to phase out Refsndyer and replace him with more useful pieces overall like Rafaela, Hamilton, Gonzalez, Grissom, take your pick that are versatile and good defenders.

Not for nothing, but I really like Murphy too @simplicio - and guess what - he's good against both sides of the mound, so I might even like him more than others on here too. I think you'd have to include more than Abreu to get him, and I assume he's only "available" in the sense that Casas is "available", so to speak.



Once again - I don't think the line up stinks, and I don't think it's something that can be fixed overnight or in one off-season. But I do think (especially if you're talking post-season baseball, which we all hope to be) it's a very big issue when (outside of one player) your entire line up is below average against one side of the plate or the other (and MAYBE you get two guys that are "average" in Devers and Yoshida).

 

[20Ks]

LAD has to pay so much because their guys aren't all 1B and DH like your list (sans Bregman). We already have a 1B without a major splits issue.

Umm other than Lowe who is ARB4 they are all making over $20M this year . Think that qualifies as expensive. Thats a big chunk of most teams payrolls. There are people making the argument of eating Yoshidas $18.5 and then paying one of those remaning FA . I made the mistake of listening to that Tessie podcast. Don't do it, unless you love popsicle headaches.

 

[20Ks]

Red Sox OPS vs LH in 2024 was .728 which was 10th in MLB The Yankees were 11th at .721. I will say it again it is not as important as hitting RH. Also its just not that big an issue for the Red Sox no matter how long posts saying it is are.

 

[bosox1534]

Unless they are making a big upgrade, like a Bregman, I don’t see any reason to sign anyone else when they have Ref and Romy on the bench already. Both those guys are solid hitters against LHP and Romy can play basically any position.

 

[Hondo33]

I don’t know that this adds to the discussion or will interest anyone but me. But I was bored and trying to avoid going out to shovel, so I looked it up.

Yes, the teams performed similarly against LHP in basically the same number of plate appearances:

Plate Appearances vs. LHP, followed by OBP/SLG/OPS:

BOS 1816 .318 .409 .729
NYY 1808 .334 .387 .721

But they did so in different ways.

Each team’s right-handed hitters against LHP,:

BOS 973 .345 .470 .815
NYY 1050 .333 .405 .738

Each team’s left-handed hitters against LHP:

BOS 843 .288 .341 .629
NYY 758 .335 .363 .698

 

[jon abbey]

I don’t know that this adds to the discussion or will interest anyone but me. But I was bored and trying to avoid going out to shovel, so I looked it up.

Yes, the teams performed similarly against LHP in basically the same number of plate appearances:

Plate Appearances vs. LHP, followed by OBP/SLG/OPS:

BOS 1816 .318 .409 .729
NYY 1808 .334 .387 .721

But they did so in different ways.

Each team’s right-handed hitters against LHP,:

BOS 973 .345 .470 .815
NYY 1050 .333 .405 .738

Each team’s left-handed hitters against LHP:

BOS 843 .288 .341 .629
NYY 758 .335 .363 .698

Not quite sure of the point here, but the short version of those NY numbers is Soto crushes everyone (and now he is in the NL) and Stanton, who previously had been historically great against LHP (at one point he had the best career SLG of any player in history against LHP, ahead of Frank Thomas in 2nd), somehow developed reverse splits and hit righties much better in 2024.

 

[Cassvt2023]

Not quite sure of the point here, but the short version of those NY numbers is Soto crushes everyone (and now he is in the NL) and Stanton, who previously had been historically great against LHP (at one point he had the best career SLG of any player in history against LHP, ahead of Frank Thomas in 2nd), somehow developed reverse splits and hit righties much better in 2024.

I think the point is, he just didn't feel like going out and shoveling snow.

 

[joe dokes]

Red Sox OPS vs LH in 2024 was .728 which was 10th in MLB The Yankees were 11th at .721. I will say it again it is not as important as hitting RH. Also its just not that big an issue for the Red Sox no matter how long posts saying it is are.

Speier's article in today's Glob lays out why you may not be right. Or why it's not as simple as OPS v. LHP.
I'm still not certain they need a RHB just for the sake of it, but the article moved my needle a bit, as it were.

 

[Cassvt2023]

Speier's article in today's Glob lays out why you may not be right. Or why it's not as simple as OPS v. LHP.
I'm still not certain they need a RHB just for the sake of it, but the article moved my needle a bit, as it were.

The thing that resonated with me when I read it was that the Sox are a traditionally really good to great offense at Fenway, but there 38-43 record at home last year could be partly due to not enough guys hitting balls in the air to LF. I feel like a healthy Story and Casas, along with Campbell's emerging fly ball rate and Rafaela's 2nd full year will help this tremendously.

 

[Sin Duda]

I think the point is, he just didn't feel like going out and shoveling snow.

Winner!

 

[Mike473]

Red Sox OPS vs LH in 2024 was .728 which was 10th in MLB The Yankees were 11th at .721. I will say it again it is not as important as hitting RH. Also its just not that big an issue for the Red Sox no matter how long posts saying it is are.

I also think the Red Sox are way too heavy on left handed hitters. Your point is well taken tho, and I hope you are right.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I also think the Red Sox are way too heavy on left handed hitters. Your point is well taken tho, and I hope you are right.

What exactly is the just right number of left handed hitters, if they're currently too heavy? As of now, the 40-man roster has 15 position players on it: 6 LHH (Duran, Devers, Casas, Abreu, Yoshida, Hamilton), 8 RHH (Story, Grissom, Wong, Rafaela, Gonzalez, Refsnyder, Narvaez, Garcia), and one switch hitter (Sogard).

 

[SouthernBoSox]

The problem is not the numbers, the problem is that the top 5 best hitters on the team are all left handed.

They have zero impact from a right handed hitter. And even if you are bullish on Grissom, he isn’t an impact guy. He’s an approach and contact driven profile.

 

[Whoop-La White]

The left-right balance feels overblown to me. The team has a history of left-handed hitters who thrived in their quirkily shaped home park (Williams, Yastrzemski, Boggs, Ortiz) and, as it is constructed now, will score runs. I think having the reliable 30 HRs from Renfroe, Duvall, or O'Neill is nice but not worth overpaying or reworking your roster for.

 

[BringBackMo]

The goal of an offense is not to come as close as possible to righty/lefty parity, nor to have no righty-lefty splits. The goal is to score runs. The Sox last year were third in the American League in runs scored, and that’s despite running out some truly woeful hitters who’d been pressed into extended duty because of injuries.

The offense seems poised to be even better this year, thanks to a (hopefully) healthy Story, Casas, and Grissom, and whatever the Sox are able to get from Anthony and Campbell. Does that mean the team wouldn’t like to add an additional righty bat? Clearly it doesn’t, because Breslow has said repeatedly that’s on his off-season to-do list. But we’re blowing this way out of proportion.

There was actually a recent suggestion itt that the Sox trade Abreu, with the goal of better lineup handedness. Abreu put up 3.4 WAR in 447 plate appearances last year, with gold glove defense, and is on a really cheap contract. Maybe the Sox will trade him to improve the team in some meaningful way…but it probably won’t be merely because he doesn’t hit lefties well. What the team will do to account for that deficiency is sit him and play a lefty thumper like Refsnyder, or Gonzalez, when the Sox are facing lefties. That is also how just about every MLB team deals with handedness challenges, including and especially in later innings while facing the bullpen.

In a vacuum, the Sox would prefer players who can hit lefties and righties equally well. But major league games are not played in a vacuum. Teams would love to run out only starters capable of regularly going six innings, good hitters who also play sparkling defense, and speedsters who also get on base at a high percentage. The reality, though, is that most players are good at some things and not at others. The goal is to field an overall roster that balances the various pluses and minuses of all 26 players.

I recognize that those calling for additional right handed hitters are asking for that very thing—balance. But it’s clear that the Sox have found other, and more meaningful, ways to balance the lineup. And the proof is in the pudding: The Sox scored plenty of runs last year regardless of their overall handedness, and it‘s reasonable to expect them to score even more this year.

Yes, hitters with no righty-lefty split are valuable. And yes, the Sox appear to be quite interested in adding a bat who can mash lefty pitching. But I think we have become way too fixated on this issue and are overblowing its significance to the team’s fortunes this season.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

The goal of an offense is not to come as close as possible to righty/lefty parity, nor to have no righty-lefty splits. The goal is to score runs. The Sox last year were third in the American League in runs scored, and that’s despite running out some truly woeful hitters who’d been pressed into extended duty because of injuries.

The offense seems poised to be even better this year, thanks to a (hopefully) healthy Story, Casas, and Grissom, and whatever the Sox are able to get from Anthony and Campbell. Does that mean the team wouldn’t like to add an additional righty bat? Clearly it doesn’t, because Breslow has said repeatedly that’s on his off-season to-do list. But we’re blowing this way out of proportion.

There was actually a recent suggestion itt that the Sox trade Abreu, with the goal of better lineup handedness. Abreu put up 3.4 WAR in 447 plate appearances last year, with gold glove defense, and is on a really cheap contract. Maybe the Sox will trade him to improve the team in some meaningful way…but it probably won’t be merely because he doesn’t hit lefties well. What the team will do to account for that deficiency is sit him and play a lefty thumper like Refsnyder, or Gonzalez, when the Sox are facing lefties. That is also how just about every MLB team deals with handedness challenges, including and especially in later innings while facing the bullpen.

In a vacuum, the Sox would prefer players who can hit lefties and righties equally well. But major league games are not played in a vacuum. Teams would love to run out only starters capable of regularly going six innings, good hitters who also play sparkling defense, and speedsters who also get on base at a high percentage. The reality, though, is that most players are good at some things and not at others. The goal is to field an overall roster that balances the various pluses and minuses of all 26 players.

I recognize that those calling for additional right handed hitters are asking for that very thing—balance. But it’s clear that the Sox have found other, and more meaningful, ways to balance the lineup. And the proof is in the pudding: The Sox scored plenty of runs last year regardless of their overall handedness, and it‘s reasonable to expect them to score even more this year.

Yes, hitters with no righty-lefty split are valuable. And yes, the Sox appear to be quite interested in adding a bat who can mash lefty pitching. But I think we have become way too fixated on this issue and are overblowing its significance to the team’s fortunes this season.

This is perfect....

.....but I want an All Star at every position!!!!!

 

[Fishy1]

The goal of an offense is not to come as close as possible to righty/lefty parity, nor to have no righty-lefty splits. The goal is to score runs. The Sox last year were third in the American League in runs scored, and that’s despite running out some truly woeful hitters who’d been pressed into extended duty because of injuries.

The offense seems poised to be even better this year, thanks to a (hopefully) healthy Story, Casas, and Grissom, and whatever the Sox are able to get from Anthony and Campbell. Does that mean the team wouldn’t like to add an additional righty bat? Clearly it doesn’t, because Breslow has said repeatedly that’s on his off-season to-do list. But we’re blowing this way out of proportion.

There was actually a recent suggestion itt that the Sox trade Abreu, with the goal of better lineup handedness. Abreu put up 3.4 WAR in 447 plate appearances last year, with gold glove defense, and is on a really cheap contract. Maybe the Sox will trade him to improve the team in some meaningful way…but it probably won’t be merely because he doesn’t hit lefties well. What the team will do to account for that deficiency is sit him and play a lefty thumper like Refsnyder, or Gonzalez, when the Sox are facing lefties. That is also how just about every MLB team deals with handedness challenges, including and especially in later innings while facing the bullpen.

In a vacuum, the Sox would prefer players who can hit lefties and righties equally well. But major league games are not played in a vacuum. Teams would love to run out only starters capable of regularly going six innings, good hitters who also play sparkling defense, and speedsters who also get on base at a high percentage. The reality, though, is that most players are good at some things and not at others. The goal is to field an overall roster that balances the various pluses and minuses of all 26 players.

I recognize that those calling for additional right handed hitters are asking for that very thing—balance. But it’s clear that the Sox have found other, and more meaningful, ways to balance the lineup. And the proof is in the pudding: The Sox scored plenty of runs last year regardless of their overall handedness, and it‘s reasonable to expect them to score even more this year.

Yes, hitters with no righty-lefty split are valuable. And yes, the Sox appear to be quite interested in adding a bat who can mash lefty pitching. But I think we have become way too fixated on this issue and are overblowing its significance to the team’s fortunes this season.

I think if they're healthy, Grissom and Story are a great bet to mash LHP, and Campbell too. Grissom and Story both have pronounced splits against LHP.

 

[20Ks]

The goal of an offense is not to come as close as possible to righty/lefty parity, nor to have no righty-lefty splits. The goal is to score runs. The Sox last year were third in the American League in runs scored, and that’s despite running out some truly woeful hitters who’d been pressed into extended duty because of injuries.

The offense seems poised to be even better this year, thanks to a (hopefully) healthy Story, Casas, and Grissom, and whatever the Sox are able to get from Anthony and Campbell. Does that mean the team wouldn’t like to add an additional righty bat? Clearly it doesn’t, because Breslow has said repeatedly that’s on his off-season to-do list. But we’re blowing this way out of proportion.

There was actually a recent suggestion itt that the Sox trade Abreu, with the goal of better lineup handedness. Abreu put up 3.4 WAR in 447 plate appearances last year, with gold glove defense, and is on a really cheap contract. Maybe the Sox will trade him to improve the team in some meaningful way…but it probably won’t be merely because he doesn’t hit lefties well. What the team will do to account for that deficiency is sit him and play a lefty thumper like Refsnyder, or Gonzalez, when the Sox are facing lefties. That is also how just about every MLB team deals with handedness challenges, including and especially in later innings while facing the bullpen.

In a vacuum, the Sox would prefer players who can hit lefties and righties equally well. But major league games are not played in a vacuum. Teams would love to run out only starters capable of regularly going six innings, good hitters who also play sparkling defense, and speedsters who also get on base at a high percentage. The reality, though, is that most players are good at some things and not at others. The goal is to field an overall roster that balances the various pluses and minuses of all 26 players.

I recognize that those calling for additional right handed hitters are asking for that very thing—balance. But it’s clear that the Sox have found other, and more meaningful, ways to balance the lineup. And the proof is in the pudding: The Sox scored plenty of runs last year regardless of their overall handedness, and it‘s reasonable to expect them to score even more this year.

Yes, hitters with no righty-lefty split are valuable. And yes, the Sox appear to be quite interested in adding a bat who can mash lefty pitching. But I think we have become way too fixated on this issue and are overblowing its significance to the team’s fortunes this season.

Thank you.

 

[YTF]

The goal of an offense is not to come as close as possible to righty/lefty parity, nor to have no righty-lefty splits. The goal is to score runs. The Sox last year were third in the American League in runs scored, and that’s despite running out some truly woeful hitters who’d been pressed into extended duty because of injuries.

I believe this has been the case for the past couple of seasons, but injuries aside I think there is something else at play here. I don't know how to quantify this, but for the past 2-3 seasons this team's offense seemed very Jekyll and Hyde. It's inevitable that every team will have it's offensive peaks and valleys during the season, but to my eye the Red Sox offense has collectively disappeared for long stretches at multiple times over the past couple of seasons. It's going to be a huge plus to the team if they can find a way to remain near the top of the league in runs scored while being more consistent with the offensive output.

 

[BringBackMo]

I believe this has been the case for the past couple of seasons, but injuries aside I think there is something else at play here. I don't know how to quantify this, but for the past 2-3 seasons this team's offense seemed very Jekyll and Hyde. It's inevitable that every team will have it's offensive peaks and valleys during the season, but to my eye the Red Sox offense has collectively disappeared for long stretches at multiple times over the past couple of seasons. It's going to be a huge plus to the team if they can find a way to remain near the top of the league in runs scored while being more consistent with the offensive output.

I hadn’t noticed this myself so I thought I’d try to see if I could find team runs scored per month over the past couple of years. I didn’t have much luck, unfortunately. Statsmuse appears to have something like this but it requires a subscription.
https://www.statmuse.com/mlb/ask/mlb-team-runs-per-game-sorted-by-month

Anyone have other ideas for how to get this info?

 

[Max Power]

I hadn’t noticed this myself so I thought I’d try to see if I could find team runs scored per month over the past couple of years. I didn’t have much luck, unfortunately. Statsmuse appears to have something like this but it requires a subscription.
https://www.statmuse.com/mlb/ask/mlb-team-runs-per-game-sorted-by-month

Anyone have other ideas for how to get this info?

You can go year by year on Baseball Reference. Look under Win/Loss splits.

2024 Boston Red Sox Schedule | Baseball-Reference.com

The offense completely tanked in September and took the team down with it.

 

[Trapaholic]

The streakiness of both the pitching and offense was brutal last year. One side of the ball would crater for a few weeks at a time.

It's funny because as of February 2024, Houck was the odd man out in terms of the rotation. He ended up being an All Star. Totally admit I did not see that coming.

SP depth was a killer. Just did not have enough solid MLB caliber starters to take the ball every fifth day. As it stands, the Red Sox have more talent in that group and more depth. To be optimistic, this should have a ripple effect in terms of quality innings.

Honestly, I think the streakiness on offense can be chalked up to the amount of at bats that were given to replacement level players. That wont kill you for a week or 2, but over the course of the season it just isn't sustainable. I don't expect Duran to put up 7 WAR again but I also do not expect 450+ at bats given to guys like McGwire/Dalbec/Reyes/Westbrook/Cooper et al.

 

[sean1562]

So what is our best case SP scenario for next season? I think we have definitely raised the rotation's ceiling, even if some of it is a little risky.

SP1: Crochet continues to develop and has a Cy Young Caliber season. 150+ innings with a FIP around 3
SP2: Houck shows last season was not a fluke, we get another 180 innings with a FIP around 3.20
SP3: Buehler bounces back and has a season resembling 2021, where he threw 207 innings with a 2.47 ERA/3.16 FIP, over 7 bWAR
SP4: Bello puts it together and has a full season with 180+ innings with an ERA around 3.5
SP5: Giolito is healthy and throws 160+ innings with an ERA/FIP around 3.80. I have low expectations for this guy, but the org must see something they like they think they can mold.
SP6: Crawford stays healthy, throws a ton of innings, has an ERA around 4.

I do not think Giolito is going to be any good next year, Bello and Crawford are probably the guys they were last year(which if fine), and Buehler is not gong to be 2021 good ever again. The upside on the Buehler signing is unlimited though. We have more pitchers that can throw over 100 innings which was our big issue last season. The offense is good and has the potential to be amazing if Campbell and Anthony get called up and perform at a high level. Projections are by nature conservative. Fangraphs projected Houck for 1.5 WAR before last season and 1.9 fWAR out of CF. The Yankees were an incredibly top heavy offense last year, lost Soto, and replaced Anthony Rizzo with 37 year old Paul Goldschmidt. I don't think this team is that far behind NY or Baltimore, the projected WAR difference is firmly within the margin of error.

 

[chrisfont9]

The streakiness of both the pitching and offense was brutal last year. One side of the ball would crater for a few weeks at a time.

It's funny because as of February 2024, Houck was the odd man out in terms of the rotation. He ended up being an All Star. Totally admit I did not see that coming.

SP depth was a killer. Just did not have enough solid MLB caliber starters to take the ball every fifth day. As it stands, the Red Sox have more talent in that group and more depth. To be optimistic, this should have a ripple effect in terms of quality innings.

Honestly, I think the streakiness on offense can be chalked up to the amount of at bats that were given to replacement level players. That wont kill you for a week or 2, but over the course of the season it just isn't sustainable. I don't expect Duran to put up 7 WAR again but I also do not expect 450+ at bats given to guys like McGwire/Dalbec/Reyes/Westbrook/Cooper et al.

Totally agree, except re Duran, he is what he is now. Maybe the dWAR will drop?

 

[BaseballJones]

Really excited by this off-season. Sox have acquired the second best player of the off-season, one of the better lefty relievers in the game, and another good starter.

They now have one of the top rotations in the American League; a good and deep bullpen bolstered by healthy Whitlock and Hendriks; nice pitching depth in Worcester; and a good offense that stands to improve thanks to a healthy Casas and Story.

And it’s easy to believe that Breslow isn’t done yet, with his stated desire to add a bat and the reports of the Sox working to add another bullpen arm. And then there’s the excitement of two of the best prospects in all of baseball seemingly competing for spots on the team. I still have vivid memories of Mo, Buchholz, Pedroia, Mookie, and JBJ as rookies. It always adds a little extra excitement when heralded prospects first make the majors. Can’t wait to watch Anthony and Campbell.

Shaping up to be a fun season.

I'm with you 100%. I'd like another piece or two, but this should be a fun team, and I can't wait to watch Crochet pitch for them.

Things are looking up.

 

[chrisfont9]

So what is our best case SP scenario for next season? I think we have definitely raised the rotation's ceiling, even if some of it is a little risky.

SP1: Crochet continues to develop and has a Cy Young Caliber season. 150+ innings with a FIP around 3
SP2: Houck shows last season was not a fluke, we get another 180 innings with a FIP around 3.20
SP3: Buehler bounces back and has a season resembling 2021, where he threw 207 innings with a 2.47 ERA/3.16 FIP, over 7 bWAR
SP4: Bello puts it together and has a full season with 180+ innings with an ERA around 3.5
SP5: Giolito is healthy and throws 160+ innings with an ERA/FIP around 3.80. I have low expectations for this guy, but the org must see something they like they think they can mold.
SP6: Crawford stays healthy, throws a ton of innings, has an ERA around 4.

I do not think Giolito is going to be any good next year, Bello and Crawford are probably the guys they were last year(which if fine), and Buehler is not gong to be 2021 good ever again. The upside on the Buehler signing is unlimited though. We have more pitchers that can throw over 100 innings which was our big issue last season. The offense is good and has the potential to be amazing if Campbell and Anthony get called up and perform at a high level. Projections are by nature conservative. Fangraphs projected Houck for 1.5 WAR before last season and 1.9 fWAR out of CF. The Yankees were an incredibly top heavy offense last year, lost Soto, and replaced Anthony Rizzo with 37 year old Paul Goldschmidt. I don't think this team is that far behind NY or Baltimore, the projected WAR difference is firmly within the margin of error.

I'm a serial optimist so I would expect Crochet and Buehler to be very good to excellent. Houck and Bello should be solid most nights. But Giolito... wow, just no idea. His FIP was pretty good until 2023, when he allowed 41 bombs. Maybe the arm was barking or the divorce was really hard. That is an easy assumption for us strangers to make, so it wouldn't shock me if he bounced back, but almost anything is possible with respect to his performance this year.

 

[Mike473]

I don't know that I'd use the word "exclusively." I think Henry's goal is for his high end talent to be developed "primarily" from within when it is young, cost-controlled, and relatively healthy.



We had a lot of God awful deals before Bloom (Crawford, Sandoval, etc.), who was hired to implement the philosophy, not craft it. He did his part to rebuild the farm system, but Henry clearly didn't trust him to lead the next stage of development (which is not unique to Chaim).



The Sox signed Story to a 6-year deal in early 2022, Yoshida to a 5-year deal later that year, and Devers to an 11-year deal in early 2023.

Red Sox OPS vs LH in 2024 was .728 which was 10th in MLB The Yankees were 11th at .721. I will say it again it is not as important as hitting RH. Also its just not that big an issue for the Red Sox no matter how long posts saying it is are.

What exactly is the just right number of left handed hitters, if they're currently too heavy? As of now, the 40-man roster has 15 position players on it: 6 LHH (Duran, Devers, Casas, Abreu, Yoshida, Hamilton), 8 RHH (Story, Grissom, Wong, Rafaela, Gonzalez, Refsnyder, Narvaez, Garcia), and one switch hitter (Sogard).

I think when looking at the players that make up the right handed group, the problem is pretty self explanatory, no? That is a shaky group.