It's funny, I have a Player of the Game baseball from 1976 (game-winning hit in the 17th inning of a Pony League game) where I wrote my season's stats and ".400 OBA" is included on there. I think my dad considered it important.
Much like Newman, the Sox are not “Ready to deliver”– The 2025 Offseason News (& rumors?) Thread
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Yoshida has played about 713 innings in the field during his Red Sox tenure. He is a negative in Runs Saved, UZR, and any other defensive metric you want to use. Seems like the Red Sox intended to use him as a LF, but it was so bad that they made the determination that he would not improve there and probably get much worse.
Going by eye test alone, he wasn't embarrassingly bad, but can't throw and has terrible range. It is clear now that he will be a full time DH at best and a bench bat at worst.
It isn't Pablo Sandoval level bad, but this might be a DFA situation at some point. The outfield is Duran, Abreu, Rafaela, Refsnyder as a platoon, and Anthony sooner rather than later. They are still way under the luxury tax threshold and eating the rest of the money owed to Yoshida should not impact their moves this year or next. Honestly, I would rather do that than attach an actual player or prospect just to trade him.
Going by eye test alone, he wasn't embarrassingly bad, but can't throw and has terrible range. It is clear now that he will be a full time DH at best and a bench bat at worst.
It isn't Pablo Sandoval level bad, but this might be a DFA situation at some point. The outfield is Duran, Abreu, Rafaela, Refsnyder as a platoon, and Anthony sooner rather than later. They are still way under the luxury tax threshold and eating the rest of the money owed to Yoshida should not impact their moves this year or next. Honestly, I would rather do that than attach an actual player or prospect just to trade him.
It is not just a matter of range and a poor arm with Yoshida—he is simply very uncomfortable out there. When I saw him in LF at Yankee Stadium, a number of routine flyouts went his way and I could practically see him thinking "oh god oh god oh god." I haven't seen a less natural outfielder since perhaps Wily Mo Pena.
Back then Whitey Herzog had Brett and McRae hit 1-2 at the top of his order until later putting Willie Wilson in the leadoff spot.
Not Jim Rice's fault Vern Ruhle broke his hand 9/21/75. Also not Lynn's fault Haywood Sullivan broke up a core of Lynn, Fisk, Burleson + Rice through gross mismanagement. That core would have been a dynasty.
To try my best at answering this for you, it's really tough to say because...
The Fielding Bible (DRS) only goes back to 2003. FanGraphs goes back further and gives Yoshida a -18.5 DEF score (all in, I assume) for his age 29 season in Boston. By comparison Manny was a -11.9 in his first season in Boston, also age 29. For another comparison point, Manny's dWAR his first season was -.9 and Yoshida's was -1.1. Manny then put up a -13.4 and -13.7 (-.5 dWAR; -1.5dWAR) in his 30 and 31 age seasons before really falling off (again, at least as far as one trusts this data) in his age 32 seasons.
So for the one season of data that I've found comparable stats, Yoshida was somewhere between somewhat to considerably worse defensively, depending on how one wants to argue semantics, than Manny in their first season in Boston at the same age, depending on the score one uses.
The bigger thing though is that Manny didn't have a wRC+ lower than 153 in his first six seasons in Boston and his worse season he was a 126 wRC+ hitter. He also equally demolished both left handed pitching and right handed pitching (career wRC+ split of 163 and 156).
As possibly the most vocal poster about his desire to move Yoshida, I will unequivocally say that if Yoshida was a 163 wRC+ hitter against RHPs and 156 against LHPs, and as terrible defensively as he's been, I would have literally no desire to move him and would be advocating for him being on track for the hall of fame. (And even if he were something like a 130 wRC+ against RHPs and a 115 wRC+ against LHPs, I'd have no desire to move him and would be thrilled with him as the team's DH). Unfortunately, without splitting small samples into smaller samples, he hasn't been anything close to that above average hitter against LHPs.
Yoshida is basically Trot Nixon offensively with Manny's defense.
The thing I keep coming back to is, I really don't think anyone is against the idea of having Anthony and Campbell up and starting from opening day (or at least I haven't sensed that tone). It's more a discrepancy around how people view the rest of the line up around those two. Not for nothing, but the 1974 team (Rice got a cup of coffee and all, but before Rice and Lynn) was the 4th best offense in baseball WITHOUT those guys in terms or runs scored. If Boston had been a top 4 offense in terms of runs scored last year, I wouldn't necessarily be advocating for major changes. They weren't though.
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This is a great comp, if Yoshida was a similar offensive threat as Ramirez. Manny's bat and the fact that we already had a masher as the full time DH is why Manny played left field.
He’s not a bad enough player to warrant a DFA. He will either be the DH or they will find a way to move him by taking on another bad contract, like Arenado.
I don’t think so. Still doing a lot of research. But he is a famously fast writer. I wish he’d written more books — Beyond The Sixth Game is such a gem.
I posted on another thread a couple days ago hoping to hear about Trevor Story’s IF camp in TX, and lo and behold, it started popping up on social media yesterday that he is doing another one as we speak. (It is very cool of him, and prob good team building) @Chad Finn maybe you could do a blurb about it coming up? The guys I saw there included Grissom, Casas, Anthony and Refsnyder (I guess it’s not just IF) I’d be curious to know if guys like Campbell, Mayer, Romy, Hamilton, etc… had prior commitments or if he just keeps it to a smaller number, etc…
That’s what I’ve been saying, I’m not against CA going north with the Sox. But if they are, we have to dial back our expectations a bit on what this team will be.
Like you said the 74 Sox had a top four offense for Rice and Lynn to add to. If one or both couldn’t handle the rigors, the rest of the team could.
The 2024 Sox wasn’t a top four offense. So if one or both of Campbell or Anthony can’t handle the Majors, it’s going to be tough.
It’s the same thing in 07 when Pedroia was brought up. He sucked for the first month but it wasn’t a huge deal because Youkilis, Lowell, Manny, Drew, Papi, Varitek, Crisp all picked up the slack. He just had to worry about getting his head right and not press.
If the Sox want to use 25 as another year to audition kids, okay, I guess. And I know that some people love that. But I feel we’re doing this a lot lately. But the problem is, many of the rookies aren’t sticking.
They did score the 3rd most runs in the AL despite way too many at bats from Valdez, Dalbec, McGuire, D. Smith, G Cooper, Westbrook, Reyes, and the like… better health will be they key to letting those two get their legs under them with the core they have around them.
And that with Casas and Story and Grissom missing most of the season, and Yoshida and O'Neill each missing around 50 games. Our infield was very injured last year.
IMO, the rookies should be treated as more of a luxury/have them absolutely force their way into the lineup than be immediately counted on to contribute.
I think both Anthony and Campbell are going to be very good players, however, I would prefer that they get some more time in the minors
I think both Anthony and Campbell are going to be very good players, however, I would prefer that they get some more time in the minors
Assuming nothing changes between now and start of ST, If Anthony tears up ST he has a clear shot at LF and should get that spot.
I think Grissom needs to be given more time at 2B no matter if Campbell outperforms him in ST.
I’d rather see KC spend all of ST working at 3B and 1B anyhow, and then a month or so in AAA.
Short term he can take over Romy’s spot, and DH/1B/3B rotation. In ‘26 he’s full time 3B.
For all the DFA people who think Yoshida is worthless, what is his worth? Joc Pederson played 117 games all at DH last year. He hasn't had more than 65 AB's vs LH since 2015 he did have a 908 OPS last year (Yoshida v RH was 832) but he's also only been over 800 twice since 2019, and just signed for 2/37 with Texas to be a platoon DH, coincidentally the same AAV as Yoshida. OK you can make the case that Pederson is more valuable, but DFA him over a backup catcher utility infielder etc.. to pay $18.5 M to have him play elsewhere (and he will because he's really good at hitting RH)? Especially when you will have many players on your 26 with options. I don't get it.
I think that nobody said that Yoshida is worthless. But there’s a path to improving the team next season by shifting Devers to DH, Bregman to third and moving on from someone that is redundant and expensive.
If the Sox keep him (which is probably most likely to happen) you just have to cross your fingers, hope that he’s completely healed and that he can contribute at 31 more than he has in the last few years. Also that he’s somehow learned to field so that the Sox can have some positional flexibility (not just the fabled financial flexibility).
But no one is suggesting to simply release him. And on an 81-81 team very few players should have the luxury of not being spoken about in terms of improvement.
If the Sox keep him (which is probably most likely to happen) you just have to cross your fingers, hope that he’s completely healed and that he can contribute at 31 more than he has in the last few years. Also that he’s somehow learned to field so that the Sox can have some positional flexibility (not just the fabled financial flexibility).
But no one is suggesting to simply release him. And on an 81-81 team very few players should have the luxury of not being spoken about in terms of improvement.
Really excited by this off-season. Sox have acquired the second best player of the off-season, one of the better lefty relievers in the game, and another good starter.
They now have one of the top rotations in the American League; a good and deep bullpen bolstered by healthy Whitlock and Hendriks; nice pitching depth in Worcester; and a good offense that stands to improve thanks to a healthy Casas and Story.
And it’s easy to believe that Breslow isn’t done yet, with his stated desire to add a bat and the reports of the Sox working to add another bullpen arm. And then there’s the excitement of two of the best prospects in all of baseball seemingly competing for spots on the team. I still have vivid memories of Mo, Buchholz, Pedroia, Mookie, and JBJ as rookies. It always adds a little extra excitement when heralded prospects first make the majors. Can’t wait to watch Anthony and Campbell.
Shaping up to be a fun season.
They now have one of the top rotations in the American League; a good and deep bullpen bolstered by healthy Whitlock and Hendriks; nice pitching depth in Worcester; and a good offense that stands to improve thanks to a healthy Casas and Story.
And it’s easy to believe that Breslow isn’t done yet, with his stated desire to add a bat and the reports of the Sox working to add another bullpen arm. And then there’s the excitement of two of the best prospects in all of baseball seemingly competing for spots on the team. I still have vivid memories of Mo, Buchholz, Pedroia, Mookie, and JBJ as rookies. It always adds a little extra excitement when heralded prospects first make the majors. Can’t wait to watch Anthony and Campbell.
Shaping up to be a fun season.
Yep, I'm going to try not to go too far out on a limb, but it's going to come down to health, no? If Devers, Yoshida, Casas, Grissom, and Story (I know some of you are skeptical) can stay relatively healthy (healthier, anyway), then the offense should improve on its own, even with O'Neil having moved on.
This is the kind of top-notch analysis you can only find at SoSH!
I enjoyed this post and feel much the same way!
And while Mayer has basically no chance of being up at the start of the season, given his lack of at-bats at AAA, I am excited to see him as well probably later in the year.
Abreu, like Casas, is eventually going to have to learn to hit lefties.
Yes, also can’t wait to see Mayer. As you were pointing out, though, I think the other two have separated themselves from him a little. Hopefully he can put the injuries behind him and put together a fully healthy season.
I think that’s nice in theory, but really hard to do in reality, when you’ve already got a bunch of other lefties in the lineup who don’t hit lefties well. Only so many at bats you want to give up.
If two of Campbell, Grissom or Romy are on the team, they should be able to spell Yoshida vs. lefties if Yoshida makes that necessary.
Definitely not worthless. He’s a pretty good hitter.
The issue is that he’s a pretty uniquely awful fit for the Red Sox roster (and, as basically everyone outside of this board said at the time, a terrible decision and contract by Bloom)
Yeah, Anthony is now the game's No. 1 prospect, and Campbell had an astonishing season at the plate in 2024, while Mayer did very well but without quite inspiring the same high-ceiling dreams, and he got hurt again. He could still easily have the best MLB career of any of them, but so far the injuries have slowed him down a tad.
Pretty sure Romy, Grissom and Refsnyder are expected to make the team. Both Romy or Refsnyder should be platooning with Yoshida and Abreu.
The flip side is that you’re setting yourself up for some disappointment if you’re completely banking on prospects becoming great players
This has become a big talking point and while I think it’s something, I kind of question its significance.
Team wide, Sox LHBs put up a .278 weighted on-base average vs. LHP in 2024. That mark was 20th in MLB.
But it looks like they were unlucky, some. Their expected wOBA, which measures quality of contact, was .291, good for 9th in MLB. Pretty decent.
Casas (.340 xwOBA) and Duran (.313) were above average (.294) in that department. Devers was also slightly above average at .299, and Yoshida a tick below at .285.
The real laggards were Abreu (.261), Hamilton (.245), Dominic Smith (.243) and Reese McGuire (.190). At least two of those guys are assuredly gone.
In 2023, there was no such gap in the team’s wOBA vs. xwOBA vs. LHP, and the Sox were 9th overall in wOBA (10th in xwOBA). Casas (.356), Devers (.352) and Yoshida (.328) posted weighted on-base averages were all substantially better than average LHB vs. LHP situations leaguewide.
IIRC, the microscope came out last August about Sox hitters vs. same-handed pitching, while we puzzled about Tyler O’Neill’s pronounced splits. That was weird, and he's also not our concern anymore.
Overall, it’s something to keep an eye on, but I don’t think it’s as bad as every LHB needing serious help against same-handed hurlers. Casas, Devers and Yoshida were each hurt last year, which to me seems like the best explanation for why their numbers dragged from 2023’s good-to-great marks. Duran is not really a problem against them at all relative to his peers — his .313 xwOBA last year was 30th among 95 lefty hitters with >50 PAs against LHP. Abreu and Hamilton were not good, but their usage was consistent with Cora’s pattern of acclimating rookies to everyday roles with platoon partners. Maybe they’ll improve like Duran and Casas have?
Meanwhile, we’ve got two excellent lefty masher bench guys in Ref and Romy, a healthy Grissom and Story should help, and maybe Narvaez (over McGuire) as a pinch-hit option who plays a little first base could help too.
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Yoshida could cover a microcosm in the outfield. Trouble is, Fenway's right field is a macrocosm, and Yoshida will never set foot in it.
Good thing there are like 10 players on the roster that would play there before him
Thats not the flip side of hand-waving away Lynn and Rice because the teams they were on didnt win a World Series.
Odd since the post I was responding to said he was a DFA candidate, and thats not the first time someone has said that.
Great post. What people are missing is that the ability to hit RH pitching is infinitely more valuable than hitting LH. The top two team OPS vs RH last year were the Yankees and Dodgers that is no coincidence (Red Sox were 6th). It is also why someone like Joc Pederson and Yoshida, are so much more valuable than a Refsnyder or Grichuck. If Abreu, Duran and Casas "eventually learn to hit lefties" . Not sure what that means but if that means improving their OPS against them by 100-200 OPS then they are all looking at Juan Soto type contracts.
Regarding Yoshida's defense.....I cant find it right now, but I am pretty sure I remember Cora saying that the decision not to play him in the OF was made before his injury. If that decision was made in, let say, Spring '24, that would be before Duran and Abreu became gold-glovers. Assuming they really are that good.....and assuming Rafaela is still that good.....I suppose it's possible that 2 GG in CF and RF *might* allow a healthy Yoshida to play some LF this year. (Much in the same way that a healthy Story probably helps the 2B and 3Bmen be a bit better.)
Thank you for bringing on early spring to me on this cold winter morning. I feel the same way you do and can't wait to see how the kids unfold. My first "kids" were Rico, Reggie, Tony, George, and Lonnie. Hope does spring eternal.
I think it helps only from a positioning stand point which isn't nothing, but he still needs to take good paths to the ball, field it cleanly and make good throws.
Adding a post from ~month ago that dovetails with your points about the Sox against LHP and the potential impact of losing O'Neill.