Much like Newman, the Sox are not “Ready to deliver”– The 2025 Offseason News (& rumors?) Thread

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
33,413
Aren't many things that need addressing? They do not have an above average player at every position. Wong, Story, whoever plays 2B, LF are not above average or are rookies so they haven't proven anything at the major league level yet. Casas has not proven he can stay on the field consistently so that is an issue. They don't have a lot of power in the lineup.
Story is above average (104 OPS+/excellent fielding). But he comes with other questions.

And as far as rookies go, at some point, the FO has to decide if they think a rookie is going to be a contributor. (It seems like they have so decided). Getting a Bregman because that rookie hasn't contributed *yet* seems short-sighted at best. Otherwise, your analysis leads to *always* getting a veteran because a rookie (by definition) hasn't "proven anything." Anthony and Campbell *seem* to be on the cusp of proving something. Or maybe they'll be Joe Charbonneau. Or maybe Bregman's OBP falls by another 40 points in 2025.
 
Last edited:

Yelling At Clouds

Post-darwinian
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
4,142
Aren't many things that need addressing? They do not have an above average player at every position. Wong, Story, whoever plays 2B, LF are not above average or are rookies so they haven't proven anything at the major league level yet. Casas has not proven he can stay on the field consistently so that is an issue. They don't have a lot of power in the lineup.
Wong, I agree. What's your plan to replace him? I'm all ears.

Story? It's true that he's gotten hurt each year in Boston, but he's generally fine when he plays. If he gets hurt again, there's depth behind him.

At 2B, I was in favor of trading Grissom, but ... it would be a questionable choice to just give up on him at this point, no? Were you one of the people calling for Cora to start over Pedroia back in 2007? And, again, if he faceplants again this year, Hamilton put up an above-average season just last year. BBRef has him worth 2.6 WAR. Pretty good! FG has it at a more modest 1.7, but even that is average-ish.

LF? Jaren Duran? What's a guy got to do to be considered above average?

Casas played 132 games in 2023, I'm not sure how many he has to play in a season to prove to you that he can consistently stay on the field. I'm in favor of bolstering the 1B depth, though, as I said in my post.
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
57,029
deep inside Guido territory
Who cares if they are "taken seriously" as a contender? I just want them to put together a team that is the best they can and I don't think Bregman is likely to be as good as Campbell within 2 years. It sure would impress the media though and a bunch of fans that just want them to spend money and it doesn't matter how... just spend it!!!!! So we can be taken seriously!!!!
You have no idea how Kristian Campbell is going to fare in the major leagues. Nobody does. You want a team put together the best they can? How about adding a proven player both in the field and at the plate who can help mentor the young players while adding a vocal leader which does not exist on this team? I can't believe people are just assuming that all of these rookies are going to come up and automatically be All-Star caliber. It could happen, but there's been many cases that top prospects turn into busts.

As currently constituted, the Red Sox are a fringe playoff team at best. Adding Bregman would improve the lineup and the infield defense.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

has fancy plans, and pants to match
Dope
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2001
25,878
The idea of "hope" layed out by JMOH are things every team including LA NYY Mets etc face, Will injured players be healthy? Will the kids continue to develop? Wil players that were awesome regress? Will players that sucked/injured, suck/injure less?

All of these things fall into some sort of perfomance probability measure with varying ranges. What Breslow seems to be doing is channeling resources towards assets that have higher likelihood of hitting upper end of expectations for a longer time IE Crochet @ 25 Vs. Burnes @ 31. Why they were so willing to go after Soto at 26. While at the same time creating flexibility such as acquiring starters 7,8,9 to play in AAA. The bad contracts are bart of the process like Nimmo, McNeil, Stanton, LeMahieu, Chris Taylor, etc.. There will be more money spent to sign a Crochet extension, another bat, another reliever, as well as in season acquisitions. Its fun to disagree/agree hate/love certain moves and discuss them. It used to happen a lot on this board.

Or as glum from the banana splits would say..."Were doomed, we'll never make it."
You're right about other teams facing similar questions, but I'd offer two replies:

1. The Red Sox seem to have more question marks and less sure things than the other clubs that you mention have.
2. I don't care about the other teams, I care about the Sox and I'd like to see them remove a few if's. They did so with the top of the pitching staff and should be commended. But there are still some holes here and it's getting late.

As to the bolded red: you're probably right there is more money to be spent. But in regards to the other bat, where is that coming from? Bregman? There are at least four threads on why he may or may not be a good piece for the Sox. I think he's the proverbial square peg for a roundish hole, but we need right-handed pop, so is it worth it to spend money and years to sign a guy that's not a great fit? If he's not, what then?

The Sox could sign Scott and I'd be excited if they did but again do you want to lay out long dough for a reliever? Relievers are weird creatures, one minute they're 2023 Kaleb Ort on the Sox and the next minute they're 2024 Kaleb Ort on the Astros. Who knows what you're going to get year-to-year. Could you find the next 24 Ort for $500K? Do you need to spend $20M for Scott to get the same production?

It's a volatile position and a bullpen can be a bit of a money pit.

As for the most egregious part of your post (your bolded purple prose), sir there was no "Glum" in the Banana Splits. There was only Fleagle, Bingo, Drooper and Snorky. They should all be put into the Rock n Roll Hall of Fame today and I will be taking no questions on this topic.
 

20Ks

New Member
Jul 11, 2024
207
I'm sure all of us would be absolutely thrilled of course if the Sox grabbed almost as much of a Sure Thing as there could be in Juan Soto. But that pricetag also means the Mets are REALLY HOPING that he stays healthy. Mike Trout seemed like a sure thing and his injuries derailed what could have been a juggernaut team, and his price tag tanked the Angels from adding more.
Giolito was a Sure Thing. Pivetta was a Sure Thing. Yeah, lesser ceiling "sure thing" obviously, but their injuries still had an effect on the team. A "sure thing" player doesn't exist, and the ones that seem to be still occasionally fall apart and when they do... their pricetag can cripple a team for years.
Now, I know a lot of posters demand John Henry should just spend over any busts, but he didn't in the past and I see no reason why he would spend over a "Sure Thing" High Cost bust when again, he really hasn't in the past.
When Sale shit the bed, it really destroyed the team.
Not sure why you put "Sure thing" in quotation marks and said it over and over again in response to "perfomance probability measure with varying ranges" and "higher likelihood of hitting upper end of expectations for a longer time" quantifying probabilities is literally understanding something is not a sure thing.
 

Yelling At Clouds

Post-darwinian
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
4,142
Re: Bregman, I wouldn't even know where to start with this, but has a player ever seen their walk rate decline as precipitously as his did this past season and then remained productive afterwards? It was a pretty sharp decline.
 

20Ks

New Member
Jul 11, 2024
207
You're right about other teams facing similar questions, but I'd offer two replies:

1. The Red Sox seem to have more question marks and less sure things than the other clubs that you mention have.
2. I don't care about the other teams, I care about the Sox and I'd like to see them remove a few if's. They did so with the top of the pitching staff and should be commended. But there are still some holes here and it's getting late.

As to the bolded red: you're probably right there is more money to be spent. But in regards to the other bat, where is that coming from? Bregman? There are at least four threads on why he may or may not be a good piece for the Sox. I think he's the proverbial square peg for a roundish hole, but we need right-handed pop, so is it worth it to spend money and years to sign a guy that's not a great fit? If he's not, what then?

The Sox could sign Scott and I'd be excited if they did but again do you want to lay out long dough for a reliever? Relievers are weird creatures, one minute they're 2023 Kaleb Ort on the Sox and the next minute they're 2024 Kaleb Ort on the Astros. Who knows what you're going to get year-to-year. Could you find the next 24 Ort for $500K? Do you need to spend $20M for Scott to get the same production?

It's a volatile position and a bullpen can be a bit of a money pit.

As for the most egregious part of your post (your bolded purple prose), sir there was no "Glum" in the Banana Splits. There was only Fleagle, Bingo, Drooper and Snorky. They should all be put into the Rock n Roll Hall of Fame today and I will be taking no questions on this topic.
Shit you're right its Gullivers travels

So I agree with you on the Glum thing and the reliever thing. Where they get a RHH bat from I'm not sure, but there are options. I would prefer they not commit more than 3or 4 years.
As for other teams questions. You do know the Yankees have Bellinger, Stanton and Goldschmidt, as well as an infield of Chisolm, LeMahieu, Volpe, and Oswaldo Cabrera ? That is a wide degree of outcomes, many of them very bad.
 

Bread of Yaz

New Member
Mar 12, 2019
452
Re: Bregman, I wouldn't even know where to start with this, but has a player ever seen their walk rate decline as precipitously as his did this past season and then remained productive afterwards? It was a pretty sharp decline.
In his case, it appears to have been a deliberate choice to get at more power: his ISO, SLG, EV, barrel rate and HH rate all improved
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
57,029
deep inside Guido territory
Wong, I agree. What's your plan to replace him? I'm all ears.

Story? It's true that he's gotten hurt each year in Boston, but he's generally fine when he plays. If he gets hurt again, there's depth behind him.

At 2B, I was in favor of trading Grissom, but ... it would be a questionable choice to just give up on him at this point, no? Were you one of the people calling for Cora to start over Pedroia back in 2007? And, again, if he faceplants again this year, Hamilton put up an above-average season just last year. BBRef has him worth 2.6 WAR. Pretty good! FG has it at a more modest 1.7, but even that is average-ish.

LF? Jaren Duran? What's a guy got to do to be considered above average?

Casas played 132 games in 2023, I'm not sure how many he has to play in a season to prove to you that he can consistently stay on the field. I'm in favor of bolstering the 1B depth, though, as I said in my post.
My choice would have been Kyle Higashioka, but that did not happen.

We have no idea what to expect from Story at the plate as he has not played a full season since 2021. Defensively, no problem there.

At 2B...Alex Bregman. I've covered that in other posts, but the owners seemingly are averse to actually going out and spending money.

Jarren Duran is the CF on this team, so that is why I said LF. Is it a platoon between Refsnyder and Yoshida? Campbell? It is currently an unknown.

You referenced the one year Triston Casas stayed healthy and played a ton of games. In 2018 he tore his UCL in his right thumb 2 games into his pro career and missed the rest of the season. 2019 he was relatively healthy. 2020 was missed due to COVID. In 2021 he played in 86 games between Portland and Worcester. In 2022, he played a combined 103 games between Boston and the minor leagues. Last year he played in 75 games between rehab assignment in Worcester and Boston. I still believe that Casas can be a good player, but if people think Marcelo Mayer is "injury prone", Triston Casas is right behind him.
 

kazuneko

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 10, 2006
3,116
Honolulu HI
I agree Devers is horrible defensively. My point is that if they're not going to move him off 3b, then you need to have an offense that can survive his horrible defense. They don't.
So one of those two things has to change, either the infield defense needs to get a heck of a lot better (meaning Devers isn't playing 3b any more) OR many other parts of the line up are going to have to be drastically improved to mask over his defense at third. I think we agree on this.
I agree with that idea but I think you are taking it a bit far. Devers is bad defensively but Vlad is probably worse. You can’t have both signed long-term.
 
Last edited:

chawson

Hoping for delivery
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
5,229
I’m puzzled by this conversation about prospects. Last year there was that narrative about the Sox FO “putting too much pressure” on their top prospects. And now we’re talking about it being bad strategy to “hope” they pan out?

I’m not sure what the alternative is supposed to be. Either the team clears lanes for these guys to become everyday regulars or they trade them (as we have, in some cases, for Crochet). There’s always a risk, etc etc. But in general it’s a bad idea to acquire down-trending free agents at immovable salaries that would effectively block them for half a decade. Right?

I don’t know where any of this wishy-washy stuff about “pressure” or “hope” or whatever comes into play. Sometimes there are positional battles and those can be healthy. But in general, the way I see it is that a baseball team drafts and develops prospects, a large network of scouts and analysts agree that they should be good, and then the team promotes them and plays them. If they flop or get hurt, then ok — it happens.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

has fancy plans, and pants to match
Dope
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2001
25,878
Shit you're right its Gullivers travels

So I agree with you on the Glum thing and the reliever thing. Where they get a RHH bat from I'm not sure, but there are options. I would prefer they not commit more than 3or 4 years.
As for other teams questions. You do know the Yankees have Bellinger, Stanton and Goldschmidt, as well as an infield of Chisolm, LeMahieu, Volpe, and Oswaldo Cabrera ? That is a wide degree of outcomes, many of them very bad.
Right. But 3/4s of the Sox infield is filled with guys who were on the DL for an extended period of time last year plus Devers, who is a legit stud in the batter's box no doubt. You also seemed to have forgotten Judge as someone that the Yanks have. ;)

There's no doubt that they Yankees' offense will suffer without Soto, but Fried and Williams should improve their rotation and bullpen.

Edit: and we all make the Gulliver's Travels/Banana Splits mistake. It's cool.
 
Last edited:

John Marzano Olympic Hero

has fancy plans, and pants to match
Dope
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2001
25,878
I don’t know where any of this wishy-washy stuff about “pressure” or “hope” or whatever comes into play. Sometimes there are positional battles and those can be healthy. But in general, the way I see it is that a baseball team drafts and develops prospects, a large network of scouts and analysts agree that they should be good, and then the team promotes them and plays them. If they flop or get hurt, then ok — it happens.
No one is talking about rookies being under pressure. But there's a number of posters who think that Campbell and Anthony are going to hit right out of the shoot and be team saviors the minute they hit the field. Would I like that to happen? Of course. Would I bet on it happening? No.

Both of those players should be good. But baseball history is littered with players who should be good (Gregg Jefferies, Brad Komminsk, Todd Van Poppel, etc.) who were, in fact, not good. Trusting the turnaround of your lineup to two rookies who have about a month of AAA experience between them is probably not the best plan going forward.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2022
1,886
I agree with that idea but I think you are taking it a bit far. Devers is bad defensively but Vlad is probably worse. You can’t have both signed long-term.
You're probably right, and either way, it's really not worth going over because I think there is approximately a less than 2% chance that Vladdy ends up in Boston. But hey, at least it's far more likely than Gallen, Cease or Valdez, so there is that, I guess.
 

marcoscutaro

New Member
Jun 15, 2024
176
In 2018 he tore his UCL in his right thumb 2 games into his pro career and missed the rest of the season. 2019 he was relatively healthy. 2020 was missed due to COVID. In 2021 he played in 86 games between Portland and Worcester. In 2022, he played a combined 103 games between Boston and the minor leagues. Last year he played in 75 games between rehab assignment in Worcester and Boston. I still believe that Casas can be a good player, but if people think Marcelo Mayer is "injury prone", Triston Casas is right behind him.
He was in the Olympics and qualifiers in 2021. Went to the Fall League after that. Funny how that gets overlooked all the time. So essentially you’re crying about a thumb injury from when he was 18 and just drafted, a high ankle sprain in 2022 and a freak injury last year, yeah?
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
22,792
Rogers Park
No one is talking about rookies being under pressure. But there's a number of posters who think that Campbell and Anthony are going to hit right out of the shoot and be team saviors the minute they hit the field. Would I like that to happen? Of course. Would I bet on it happening? No.

Both of those players should be good. But baseball history is littered with players who should be good (Gregg Jefferies, Brad Komminsk, Todd Van Poppel, etc.) who were, in fact, not good. Trusting the turnaround of your lineup to two rookies who have about a month of AAA experience between them is probably not the best plan going forward.
(Not the point, but did you know that Gregg Jeffries had 20 career WAR?)
 

Yo La Tengo

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 21, 2005
1,394
I’m puzzled by this conversation about prospects. Last year there was that narrative about the Sox FO “putting too much pressure” on their top prospects. And now we’re talking about it being bad strategy to “hope” they pan out?

I’m not sure what the alternative is supposed to be. Either the team clears lanes for these guys to become everyday regulars or they trade them (as we have, in some cases, for Crochet). There’s always a risk, etc etc. But in general it’s a bad idea to acquire down-trending free agents at immovable salaries that would effectively block them for half a decade. Right?

I don’t know where any of this wishy-washy stuff about “pressure” or “hope” or whatever comes into play. Sometimes there are positional battles and those can be healthy. But in general, the way I see it is that a baseball team drafts and develops prospects, a large network of scouts and analysts agree that they should be good, and then the team promotes them and plays them. If they flop or get hurt, then ok — it happens.
Agreed- isn't the whole plan to suck for a while, develop young prospects, and then play them or trade them for even better young players?

The Sox need to find out which of the top prospects can produce. Campbell and Anthony (and Mayer) should start the year in AAA while Rafaela and Grissom get some rope to show if they can be the starting CF and 2B. As June approaches, the Sox will know if Story and Casas are healthy, if Yoshida needs to be moved, etc and there will be adjustments for Campbell and Anthony and Mayer, assuming they have performed in AAA.
It goes without saying that some of these players are going to struggle, and that there will be injuries, but until those things happen, I would argue the Sox best approach is to sign a catcher and reliever, look at team-friendly extensions, let the young guys play, and reassess once there is some fresh information available to drive adjustments/promotions/trades.

EDIT: this roster has legit potential upside (and some real uncertainty) at every single position and in each of the SP rotation spots. The first half of every season involves assessing the roster, but the 2025 season is going be a real-time tryout and the parity within the AL this year makes it a perfect time to do it.
 
Last edited:

marcoscutaro

New Member
Jun 15, 2024
176
At this stage in the season besides the catcher and reliever options there’s plenty of depth and guys who can move around the IF. They say Yoshida will be ready for spring training but I find that questionable given the nature of his surgery, so he might very well start the season on the IL because he’ll need to build back up strength. It’s a good problem to have too much depth, you won’t have a season where the likes of Gasper or Valdez or Dalbec are getting playing time in games that matter, and that makes a difference too.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

has fancy plans, and pants to match
Dope
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2001
25,878
(Not the point, but did you know that Gregg Jeffries had 20 career WAR?)
I was also supposed to put my kids through college and buy a Porsche with all of the Jeffries rookie cards I had. A 20 career WAR and two All Star Game appearances over 14 years and six teams ain’t cutting it.
 

Yelling At Clouds

Post-darwinian
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
4,142
Jarren Duran is the CF on this team, so that is why I said LF. Is it a platoon between Refsnyder and Yoshida? Campbell? It is currently an unknown.
I guess we don’t know until the games start, but I’ve been assuming the plan was Duran in LF, Rafaela in CF (Breslow just said a bunch of stuff about this), and the Abreu/Ref platoon in RF. Could change if someone gets hurt, as always, but is there reason to think otherwise at the moment?
 

NickEsasky

Please Hammer, Don't Hurt 'Em
SoSH Member
Jul 24, 2001
9,859
Agreed- isn't the whole plan to suck for a while, develop young prospects, and then play them or trade them for even better young players?

The Sox need to find out which of the top prospects can produce. Campbell and Anthony (and Mayer) should start the year in AAA while Rafaela and Grissom get some rope to show if they can be the starting CF and 2B. As June approaches, the Sox will know if Story and Casas are healthy, if Yoshida needs to be moved, etc and there will be adjustments for Campbell and Anthony and Mayer, assuming they have performed in AAA.
It goes without saying that some of these players are going to struggle, and that there will be injuries, but until those things happen, I would argue the Sox best approach is to sign a catcher and reliever, look at team-friendly extensions, let the young guys play, and reassess once there is some fresh information available to drive adjustments/promotions/trades.

EDIT: this roster has legit potential upside (and some real uncertainty) at every single position and in each of the SP rotation spots. The first half of every season involves assessing the roster, but the 2025 season is going be a real-time tryout and the parity within the AL this year makes it a perfect time to do it.
The plan for a team like the Red Sox should never be to "suck for a while." The rest of your post I agree with.
 

Jimbodandy

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 31, 2006
13,183
around the way
The plan for a team like the Red Sox should never be to "suck for a while." The rest of your post I agree with.
This.

We're not talking about football or basketball where a couple of good drafts can set a team up for a decade of dominance starting now. Outside of a few outliers, guys usually 3-4 years to bake in the minors before becoming contributors. The good teams build their systems while they compete not instead of.
 

NickEsasky

Please Hammer, Don't Hurt 'Em
SoSH Member
Jul 24, 2001
9,859
No one is talking about rookies being under pressure. But there's a number of posters who think that Campbell and Anthony are going to hit right out of the shoot and be team saviors the minute they hit the field. Would I like that to happen? Of course. Would I bet on it happening? No.

Both of those players should be good. But baseball history is littered with players who should be good (Gregg Jefferies, Brad Komminsk, Todd Van Poppel, etc.) who were, in fact, not good. Trusting the turnaround of your lineup to two rookies who have about a month of AAA experience between them is probably not the best plan going forward.
I mean Jackson Holliday was the best prospect in baseball and put up an OPS+ of 66 and a whopping .1 WAR last season while playing the middle infield defensively. If we count prospects to deliver right out of the gate and they flop we're looking at another lost season. I mean play them as they earn it and give them more leash as they grow, but counting on them is risky.
 

Yo La Tengo

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 21, 2005
1,394
The plan for a team like the Red Sox should never be to "suck for a while." The rest of your post I agree with.
Agreed, and I think the team should have been constructed to be more competitive these last few years. But, that doesn't seem to have been the plan in the front office and here we are... at this point, bringing in expensive older veterans to play in front of the prospects would drag out the process even further. It is time to see what these guys can do.
 

Max Power

thai good. you like shirt?
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
9,041
Boston, MA
I mean Jackson Holliday was the best prospect in baseball and put up an OPS+ of 66 and a whopping .1 WAR last season while playing the middle infield defensively. If we count prospects to deliver right out of the gate and they flop we're looking at another lost season. I mean play them as they earn it and give them more leash as they grow, but counting on them is risky.
It seems more like they're counting on Vaughn Grissom and Ceddanne Rafaela to be good players right out of the gate. Anthony and Campbell are the backup options if they faceplant at the plate again.
 

Yo La Tengo

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 21, 2005
1,394
I mean Jackson Holliday was the best prospect in baseball and put up an OPS+ of 66 and a whopping .1 WAR last season while playing the middle infield defensively. If we count prospects to deliver right out of the gate and they flop we're looking at another lost season. I mean play them as they earn it and give them more leash as they grow, but counting on them is risky.
I think the question is whether Rafaela, Grissom, Campbell, Anthony, Mayer, and/or Hamilton can nail down the 2B and LF (or CF) spots in the lineup. Some of them might flop but giving the six of them the chance to prove themselves is the right move.
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
57,029
deep inside Guido territory
He was in the Olympics and qualifiers in 2021. Went to the Fall League after that. Funny how that gets overlooked all the time. So essentially you’re crying about a thumb injury from when he was 18 and just drafted, a high ankle sprain in 2022 and a freak injury last year, yeah?
The games played are what they are whether you like it or not.. Stay on the field for more than 1 full season and nobody would be "crying" about it. He's also had right shoulder issues that shut him down for the last couple weeks of the '23 season and had a knee injury that knocked him out of winter ball after the '22 season. Fair or not, this is a big season for him to prove that he doesn't get labeled injury-prone after missing 129 games in the last 2 seasons.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2022
1,886
Are there other players who've successfully done this and sustained it?
Maybe Beltre, but a) he did so younger and b) it took him a while to have the wRC+ catch up.

His first two complete seasons he had walk rates around 10%. When he really took off, he was more down in the 7.5% and below range (ish) most of those seasons. Bregman was at 6.9% last year.


I don't think Bregman is Beltre, to be 1,000% clear. But Beltre certainly got better at utilizing his power as his career progressed (granted, he also went from LAD and Sea to Boston and Texas in terms of park effects). For what it's worth, Houston has played as a neutral to slight pitchers park over it's multi year park factors, depending on if one wants to use BBRef (multi year 98/99) or Savant (100, but one year).

Could that be the start of a new trend for Bregman - I have no idea. But since the new mindset on SoSH seems to be Eric Vanning our way into small sample sizes being cut smaller and smaller to show what players are going to be going forward, Bregman had this approach result in a 134 wRC+ in the 2nd half last year.

Personally, I DO NOT in any way think that you can just take smaller and smaller samples and extrapolate them, so I think Bregman would be about what he's been over the past 4 years (call it a 125ish wRC+) player for the next 4 seasons in Boston and with his caliber defense at 3b, that would be one hell of a player. I don't think there is any chance he's going back to his 160 wRC+ days, but I also don't really think he's what someone would say is a likely candidate to bust as his K rate has remained consistent and his defense gives him a pretty high floor.



(But I also accept that there is no chance Bregman is coming to Boston to play 3b because 3b, 1b and DH are filled. Just talking in a theoretical sense.)
 

Auger34

used to be tbb
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
12,878
The plan for a team like the Red Sox should never be to "suck for a while." The rest of your post I agree with.
100%. This, and the other big arguments on this board about spending and the 1st level of the LT, just shouldn't be major topics of discussion for a team with the Red Sox's financial means.
 

20Ks

New Member
Jul 11, 2024
207
I think the question is whether Rafaela, Grissom, Campbell, Anthony, Mayer, and/or Hamilton can nail down the 2B and LF (or CF) spots in the lineup. Some of them might flop but giving the six of them the chance to prove themselves is the right move.
I agree with everything you've posted, and the flexibility (as well as uncertainty) Is exactly why they should wait to see how the kids perform, how Yoshida, Story, Casas, Gilolito comeback, how other players develop, progress, regress, etc...Until then it is tough to know where the best place to adress is.
 

YTF

Member
SoSH Member
Because if he’d extend early, you take the Mets out of it. Sox can’t rely on winning any bidding war with Cohen.
I seriously doubt we see a trade and extend with Guerrero. In order to pull that off Boston is going to have to be willing to pay a steep premium for that sort of exclusivity while negotiating a new deal in addition to whatever it is going to cost in trade to acquire him, which is also likely to be steep.
 

NickEsasky

Please Hammer, Don't Hurt 'Em
SoSH Member
Jul 24, 2001
9,859
I agree with everything you've posted, and the flexibility (as well as uncertainty) Is exactly why they should wait to see how the kids perform, how Yoshida, Story, Casas, Gilolito comeback, how other players develop, progress, regress, etc...Until then it is tough to know where the best place to adress is.
So….hope? And if not we’re on to 2026? :D
 

20Ks

New Member
Jul 11, 2024
207
So….hope? And if not we’re on to 2026? :D
After 162 games plus hopefully the playoffs. You know there is an entire field of study devoted to baseball analytics and probabilites? Betting sites do, and they currently have the Red Sox at an O/U 84.5. Last year it took 86 wins to make the playoffs in the Al. This is with money and assets that they can still use now and during the season. "Hope is not a strategy" to gloss over the need to prepare for uncertain outcomes is used by the same type of people who say things like "go big or go home", and "no brainer" when discussing outcomes. As a Menckenite I prefer "For every complex problem there is a solution which is clear, simple and wrong"
 

Margo McCready

New Member
Dec 23, 2008
264
They didn’t can Dombrowski, bring in Chaim to rebuild the farm, and then pivot to Breslow to finish off the rebuild with pitching only to kick the rebuild can down the road just as it’s on the cusp of bearing fruit.

Campbell’s going to be the second baseman. Anthony’s going to start in left and then slide over to right when they shield Abreu from lefties. Rafaela’s going to get tons of playing time backing up shortstop and the outfield. Grissom will also get tons of playing time backing up all the non-SS infield positions and spelling Yoshida vs. lefties. When injuries inevitably strike, Rafaela and Grissom slide into starting roles and Romy and Hamilton backfill the utility roles from AAA.

They’ll want Anthony and Campbell giving them a shot at extra draft picks by competing for RoY, which means they’re playing in April. And besides, why not rip the bandaid off and get them acclimated to big league pitching ASAP? The sooner they do, the sooner the organization becomes a real problem for the rest of MLB. Everything they’ve done in the last five years has been for this moment. The ant farm is built, time to see what the ants turn it into.
 

scottyno

late Bloomer
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2008
11,813
I was also supposed to put my kids through college and buy a Porsche with all of the Jeffries rookie cards I had. A 20 career WAR and two All Star Game appearances over 14 years and six teams ain’t cutting it.
I'll never forget the guy at a card show in the early 90s who had stacks and stacks of Aaron Sele Red Sox Topps rookie cards that he was selling, probably at a ridiculous price, wonder if he ever sold them all
 

NickEsasky

Please Hammer, Don't Hurt 'Em
SoSH Member
Jul 24, 2001
9,859
And some despair more than others, too.
Hey I put a WS future on the team. I WANT them to succeed. I am just more on the realistic /cynical side given the last few years until proven otherwise.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
15,724
They didn’t can Dombrowski, bring in Chaim to rebuild the farm, and then pivot to Breslow to finish off the rebuild with pitching only to kick the rebuild can down the road just as it’s on the cusp of bearing fruit.

Campbell’s going to be the second baseman. Anthony’s going to start in left and then slide over to right when they shield Abreu from lefties. Rafaela’s going to get tons of playing time backing up shortstop and the outfield. Grissom will also get tons of playing time backing up all the non-SS infield positions and spelling Yoshida vs. lefties. When injuries inevitably strike, Rafaela and Grissom slide into starting roles and Romy and Hamilton backfill the utility roles from AAA.

They’ll want Anthony and Campbell giving them a shot at extra draft picks by competing for RoY, which means they’re playing in April. And besides, why not rip the bandaid off and get them acclimated to big league pitching ASAP? The sooner they do, the sooner the organization becomes a real problem for the rest of MLB. Everything they’ve done in the last five years has been for this moment. The ant farm is built, time to see what the ants turn it into.
How do Anthony and Campbell break camp as starters- and Gonzalez, Hamilton, and Grissom all stick around in the org? There’s just not enough room on the 40-man. They’ve got one position player spot, currently occupied by Sogard, to play with. Theoretically, Sandoval opens up another but I assume that the # pitchers will remain static and / or they will want another catcher.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
7,624
No one is talking about rookies being under pressure. But there's a number of posters who think that Campbell and Anthony are going to hit right out of the shoot and be team saviors the minute they hit the field. Would I like that to happen? Of course. Would I bet on it happening? No.

Both of those players should be good. But baseball history is littered with players who should be good (Gregg Jefferies, Brad Komminsk, Todd Van Poppel, etc.) who were, in fact, not good. Trusting the turnaround of your lineup to two rookies who have about a month of AAA experience between them is probably not the best plan going forward.
Please quote where a poster said they were going to be hitting right out of the shoot…. Or be a team savior?

Teams turn into consistent contenders one of two ways- spending at the highest margins. The Sox aren’t there. They simply won’t be. Not my money- whatever… it’s clear that they won’t outspend 4-5 other teams.
The other way is to consistently develop and graduate talent to the ML roster- and when things look good- spend smartly to compliment that core.
The Sox have been in a weird position the past 4-5 seasons, not really developing top prospects but also not spending smartly (other conversation to be had here obviously).
They’re right on the brink of having a young, affordable and highly talented team and people here are looking to trade Casas… sign bad contracts and block prospects until when??? They’re hitting 1200 OPS in AAA?
Campbell and Anthony need to be seen and be given some time at the ML. I think Anthony on opening day, and Campbell after a month or two in AAA playing 3B and 1B
 

Sin Duda

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
1,216
(B)Austin Texas
I sincerely doubt that Arenado to Boston happens.

However, if it does, I'm certain that Breslow has a plan for Casas that doesn't involve selling him for pennies on the dollar.

My best guess is this is like the Castillo situation from the Winter Meetings. Any deal has probably already been discussed and decided that it’s not going to happen. As such, information leaks out that Boston is interested in Arenado - likely coming from the StL side hoping to het him shipped off to LAD or NYY or wherever.
I was also supposed to put my kids through college and buy a Porsche with all of the Jeffries rookie cards I had. A 20 career WAR and two All Star Game appearances over 14 years and six teams ain’t cutting it.
You're kidding, right? Of course, we want our top prospects to become Hall of Famers, but that's very rare. For example, do the Sox have any HoFers right now? 2 All-star games is pretty good, I think.

Also, "chute", not "shoot".
 

chrisfont9

Member
SoSH Member
Please quote where a poster said they were going to be hitting right out of the shoot…. Or be a team savior?

Teams turn into consistent contenders one of two ways- spending at the highest margins. The Sox aren’t there. They simply won’t be. Not my money- whatever… it’s clear that they won’t outspend 4-5 other teams.
The other way is to consistently develop and graduate talent to the ML roster- and when things look good- spend smartly to compliment that core.
The Sox have been in a weird position the past 4-5 seasons, not really developing top prospects but also not spending smartly (other conversation to be had here obviously).
They’re right on the brink of having a young, affordable and highly talented team and people here are looking to trade Casas… sign bad contracts and block prospects until when??? They’re hitting 1200 OPS in AAA?
Campbell and Anthony need to be seen and be given some time at the ML. I think Anthony on opening day, and Campbell after a month or two in AAA playing 3B and 1B
My only note to these solid points is that what they've said at times, to the extent they've said anything we should take at face value, is that the second way is their preference, which would explain the reluctance to spend until the young core came into existence. Their actions have matched this version of their story at least.
 

Margo McCready

New Member
Dec 23, 2008
264
How do Anthony and Campbell break camp as starters- and Gonzalez, Hamilton, and Grissom all stick around in the org? There’s just not enough room on the 40-man. They’ve got one position player spot, currently occupied by Sogard, to play with. Theoretically, Sandoval opens up another but I assume that the # pitchers will remain static and / or they will want another catcher.
Like you said, Sandoval is one right there. Unfortunately, someone currently on the 40 joining him on the 60 day during Spring Training is more likely than not. Maybe I’m way off base here but I have a hard time believing Chase Shugart’s spot is set in stone at the expense of Grissom, Hamilton or Gonzalez. Plus, there’s still time between now and opening day so who knows, maybe Winckowski or another reliever slated for a lower leverage role is traded for someone not needing a 40 man spot. As for the catchers, it seems Breslow is ready to roll with Wong and Narvaez, having Seby Zavala as the break-glass-in-case-of-emergency guy in Worcester. But maybe you’re right and that changes.

Ultimately, the fringes of the 40 man will probably end up being fluid as they tend to be over the course of any given season because of injuries.