short infielders stick togetherOr any free agent. We have posters (and Lou Merloni) begging for them to try to shoehorn Alex Bregman's decline into the roster when he hasn't been a great player in 5 years.
short infielders stick togetherOr any free agent. We have posters (and Lou Merloni) begging for them to try to shoehorn Alex Bregman's decline into the roster when he hasn't been a great player in 5 years.
There are plenty of legitimate reasons to not sign Bregman. It’s an imperfect positional fit, he doesn’t kill lefties, he’ll be expensive, and he’s over 30.Or any free agent. We have posters (and Lou Merloni) begging for them to try to shoehorn Alex Bregman's decline into the roster when he hasn't been a great player in 5 years.
Doesn’t Crochet do that?Bregman would reenforce that acknowledgement that they are going for it. Not in 2026 or 2027 but right now.
The idea of windows is just bullshit and so are “guaranteed” teams built in the offseason. If the Sox have the most talented roster then they don’t need to fuck it up by rearranging everyone in order to squeeze in a declining veteran who wants a big contract. They’re better off getting out of their own way and getting behind their young players rather than signing the big name (who frankly isn’t that big).I think that…. It’s hard to really type out but I think there needs to be a real sense of urgency with the Sox. It’s not just about spending it’s acknowledging that the window to win a World Series is now. The AL is horrible compared to the NL. The Red Sox probably have the most talented roster in the AL when you factor in they have players who should improve with time vs the Yankees who have players leaving their prime.
My thoughts exactly, that rotation is utter trash and the Orioles haven’t done much except add Tyler O’Neill. They should be panicking. Would be shocked if the Mets are really going forward with that rotation too.Apropos of these two posts, I will say that the Orioles and Mariners are the teams who should be trying to work a hitting-for-pitching trade, makes a lot more sense on paper than most of what gets suggested around here.
Agree with this portion totally. (And I think the B- is fair, I’m just much more optimistic for this season than I have been since 2019, thus the B).I still don't think the team is constructed well for Fenway Park. But, they are improved and I think get into the mid 80s and make the playoffs.
I agree with this. Getting Crochet is the signal that the window is open.I think that…. It’s hard to really type out but I think there needs to be a real sense of urgency with the Sox. It’s not just about spending it’s acknowledging that the window to win a World Series is now. The AL is horrible compared to the NL. The Red Sox probably have the most talented roster in the AL when you factor in they have players who should improve with time vs the Yankees who have players leaving their prime.
Bregman would reenforce that acknowledgement that they are going for it. Not in 2026 or 2027 but right now.
They are two moves away from being a top 2-3 team in the AL. One that can go to the World Series.
View: https://twitter.com/loumerloni/status/1872892140189290965?s=46
He was a great player in 2018 and 2019 when they were cheating. He put up a 152 and 162 OPS+. Since then it's been 117, 113, 134, 122, and 118. That's fine, but hardly great.There are plenty of legitimate reasons to not sign Bregman. It’s an imperfect positional fit, he doesn’t kill lefties, he’ll be expensive, and he’s over 30.
But the bold is BS. He’s 4th in the AL in WAR the last 5 years. Sandwiched between Jose Ramirez and Altuve.
He’s been a great player. You can make the argument he won’t be great in the future. But you’re flat out dishonest saying he hasn’t been a great player.
Time will tell of course, but Campbell and Anthony are likely to play most of the season in the majors. If they have good rookie seasons, the offense looks a lot better.The problem of course being, if we expect Devers to be “the same” and Casas to equal O’Neill (which I do) the team has done nothing to improve the offense otherwise.
Out of curiosity. Who do you have in mind here in particular?I agree with this. Getting Crochet is the signal that the window is open.
I’m agnostic on Bregman at this point. Signing him seems like a solution looking for a problem, for us. I feel like we’ve got three 3+ win second basemen already on the team. Still, I’d feel some relief if they did. He could certainly help.
I think more will happen anyway, probably in another blockbuster trade. I think there are a lot of teams looking to shed contracts for good players — guys who look reasonable relative to this winter’s market but are nonetheless expensive in a league where half the teams are facing economic volatility from TV deals, etc.
I think there will be a lot of January trades.
Whether you want to use WAR or something else to measure it, that’s either great or pretty close to it when combined with top level defense at 3B. Certainly more than “fine”.He was a great player in 2018 and 2019 when they were cheating. He put up a 152 and 162 OPS+. Since then it's been 117, 113, 134, 122, and 118. That's fine, but hardly great.
I think we're arguing semantics. He's been a top 25 hitter in the league who plays good defense and hasn't made a single All Star team in 5 years. That's a good player, but I'd only use the word "great" for top 5 or 10 hitters. The true MVP candidate types.Whether you want to use WAR or something else to measure it, that’s either great or pretty close to it when combined with top level defense at 3B. Certainly more than “fine”.
Not a fan of WAR either. Bergman is a good player. Not great.He was a great player in 2018 and 2019 when they were cheating. He put up a 152 and 162 OPS+. Since then it's been 117, 113, 134, 122, and 118. That's fine, but hardly great.
WAR is totally overused as a basis for arguments on this board. It's a rough shorthand for overall player value, but even the people who invented it will tell you a 2 WAR difference in a single season is within the margin for error. The defensive component is basically garbage and the positional adjustments are total guesswork.
I think one problem with Bregman is they are supposedly looking to acquire him for 2b - where it’s not even clear that he’s defensively strong. Don’t like the idea of Bregman but if they acquire him it has to be for 3b (with Yoshida traded and Devers moving to DH). His defense at 3b is a huge part of his value- at 2b he may very well be subpar.Whether you want to use WAR or something else to measure it, that’s either great or pretty close to it when combined with top level defense at 3B. Certainly more than “fine”.
The Twins, Angels, Padres, Diamondbacks, Phillies, Cardinals, Blue Jays, Mariners and White Sox all have interesting players that either don’t make sense or otherwise seem too expensive for where they’re at in their contention windows.Out of curiosity. Who do you have in mind here in particular?
I think everyone is pretty much saying the same thing, no need for anyone to disparage WAR in this case.Whether you want to use WAR or something else to measure it, that’s either great or pretty close to it when combined with top level defense at 3B. Certainly more than “fine”.
Vlad makes Raffy look like a gold glover at 3b. He’s an abominable -14 OAA in a bit more than 900 career innings (less than a full season) there. I don’t think anyone is acquiring him for the hot corner.The Jays may move Vlad, who played an average 3B in 100 innings last year, now that they’ve whiffed everywhere in FA.
The rumors were that Boston was looking for Woo or Miller for Casas, the recent (and heavily revised) version makes it seem like Seattle wanted to dump salary (Castillo) on Boston for getting back a young 1B with high power upside. Meaning that the recently outlined version probably had Boston demanding more for eating Castillo's deal or that Seattle also take back a salary dump. The most likely scenario is that Seattle took a hard line on getting a big return for their problem contract and wasn't willing to budge. Thank god as Castillo just isn't that good anymore.This is an excellent post and I enjoyed it. That said, perhaps Trader Jerry is just demanding the sun and moon now to gage the market and he’ll bring the price down and eventually trade Castillo. Maybe the trade wasn’t quite proposed as reported and he’s not getting very good offers for him because we can also see the road ERA, etc. The risk is teams filling their needs elsewhere, like the Sox, but maybe the thought is there will always be enough demand for SP in this market to get a decent return when he wants to pull the trigger.
Eliminating WAR entirely, the offensive upgrade alone should speak for itself. They've gotten like a wRC+ of 90 the past several seasons at the position. Bregman's like 30 points higher. That's the gap between someone like Raffy (.354/.516) and Gleyber Torres (.330/.378). He doesn't need to be a great hitter to be far superior to what they have had.I think everyone is pretty much saying the same thing, no need for anyone to disparage WAR in this case.
Bregman has been a 4-5 WAR player the last 3 years and projects to be 4-ish WAR this year. That would put him on the edge of a top 30 or so non-pitcher. Certainly a really nice player to have on your team and a "very good" player, or whatever adjective people want to use.
I tend to agree I think we should be considering Bregman a primary 3B if we want to sign him, not sure he would keep the same value at 2B. I think Campbell is most likely going to be in the infield (at least in the near term), in which case Devers would not be the primary 3B if we sign Bregman anyway.
Neither do Grissom or Campbell.Eliminating WAR entirely, the offensive upgrade alone should speak for itself. They've gotten like a wRC+ of 90 the past several seasons at the position. Bregman's like 30 points higher. That's the gap between someone like Raffy (.354/.516) and Gleyber Torres (.330/.378). He doesn't need to be a great hitter to be far superior to what they have had.
Right?? Whatever happened to to getting out from under a player a year too early instead of a year too late?First part last
Doesn’t Crochet do that?
The idea of windows is just bullshit and so are “guaranteed” teams built in the offseason. If the Sox have the most talented roster then they don’t need to fuck it up by rearranging everyone in order to squeeze in a declining veteran who wants a big contract. They’re better off getting out of their own way and getting behind their young players rather than signing the big name (who frankly isn’t that big).
The problem I have with Bergman at second.Neither do Grissom or Campbell.
Burnes' K rate:That's a shit ton of money for a smallish market team to be paying a 30+ year old with a cratering K rate. I like the D-Backs a lot, so I hope it works out. That's a terrifying contract to me, though.
Possibly I’m drinking the Kool Aid right now, but I feel the gap between Boston and Baltimore has been narrowed considerably and the Red Sox have a real shot at passing them. But the offseason isn’t over yet.My thoughts exactly, that rotation is utter trash and the Orioles haven’t done much except add Tyler O’Neill. They should be panicking.
As someone that has made no secret of his desire to sign Bregman, in my mind it’s not to play 2b.The problem I have with Bergman at second.
Absolutely, the idea the roster is “clogged” just isn’t true. If Campbell and Roman are the real deal it won’t be challenging to give them at bats.As someone that has made no secret of his desire to sign Bregman, in my mind it’s not to play 2b.
I also really think people are over-estimating how much signing one core bat will block any of the prospects.
Let’s assume (in my world) Bregman is signed to play 3b and Devers to DH (while working a bit on 1b, because see below). All players can get hurt at any point, but some do seem to consistently be available or miss time. Based on his career track record, Devers is a very good bet to play 140ish games. Who else is?
Here are games played going backward from last season, in mamy cases using minor league and rehab stints to count for games played:
1b - Casas - 75, 132, 103, 86. Average is 99 games played, so 63 games of open playing time (call it 280 PA)
2b - wide open anyway. I’ll just assume this is Campbell being good for 150 games. Leaves 12 open (55PA).
SS - Story - 30, 56, 96 (and Mayer 77, 78, 91). Average is 61 games (Story). Leaves 101 games (450PA)
3b - “Bregman” 145, 161, 155. Average is 153. 9 games left (40 PA)
LF - wide open anyway. I’ll just assume this is Anthony being good for 150 games also. 12 open (55PA)
CF - Duran 160, 113, 126, 93. Average is 123 games. 39 left (175PA).
RF - Abreu 135, 104, 129. Average is also 123 (175PA).
DH - Devers 138, 153, 141. Average is 144. 18 left (80PA).
Using games played averages over multiple seasons of data, and just plain old assuming already that Anthony and Campbell are already starting and producing for 150 games as rookies, that leaves 1310 PA left. You could be giving 400 PA to each of Rafaela, Grissom and Mayer (if he’s healthy, if not they’re probably going to Hamilton) and still have around 100 left.
Signing Bregman or anyone else may well take at bats away from Refsnyder or Romy Gonzalez. It’s highly unlikely they’d be losing any from “the kids”. Its really not a question of Bregman (or whoever) vs the kids.There are highly likely to be plenty of PAs for all of them.
Agree completely. I think saying we are 1 core bat short is a good way to put it.As someone that has made no secret of his desire to sign Bregman, in my mind it’s not to play 2b.
I also really think people are over-estimating how much signing one core bat will block any of the prospects.
this makes a ton of sense in my brain. If Cora wasn’t the Sox manager, no one would be talking about Bregman coming here. There are too many reasons it makes absolutely no sense.So how do you square that with the team saying that they're not moving Devers off 3B? You're also completely ignoring Grissom and Yoshida in your roster construction.
Squeezing Bregman in on a long-term contract requires contorting everyone around into new postions to fit him in. This issue isn't that Bregman wouldn't be a nice bat to add on a short-term deal, it's that you can't wish the rest of the players off the roster and it seems unlikely that the FO is just going to waive them and eat the money. If the team makes a trade that opens up space, then we'll talk (or I guess if they do sign him, we should expect another move to be coming).
They can say what they want, but they know Devers is a bad 3B and moving him would be good for the team. Unless they actually have a new plan in place I expect them to say Devers is the 3B (they kind of have to), but that doesn't mean it'll happen.So how do you square that with the team saying that they're not moving Devers off 3B? You're also completely ignoring Grissom and Yoshida in your roster construction.
Squeezing Bregman in on a long-term contract requires contorting everyone around into new postions to fit him in. This issue isn't that Bregman wouldn't be a nice bat to add on a short-term deal, it's that you can't wish the rest of the players off the roster and it seems unlikely that the FO is just going to waive them and eat the money. If the team makes a trade that opens up space, then we'll talk (or I guess if they do sign him, we should expect another move to be coming).
Remember last year when they said that Yoshida wasn’t moving off of LF? There’s no point in publicly stating that they plan to Devers when they don’t have a replacement, haven’t talked to him about it, and when it might not happen. I wouldn’t put much stock into those statements at this point, things can change.So how do you square that with the team saying that they're not moving Devers off 3B? You're also completely ignoring Grissom and Yoshida in your roster construction.
Squeezing Bregman in on a long-term contract requires contorting everyone around into new postions to fit him in. This issue isn't that Bregman wouldn't be a nice bat to add on a short-term deal, it's that you can't wish the rest of the players off the roster and it seems unlikely that the FO is just going to waive them and eat the money. If the team makes a trade that opens up space, then we'll talk (or I guess if they do sign him, we should expect another move to be coming).
It should be illegal to post this without the following caveats:Let’s assume (in my world) Bregman is signed to play 3b and Devers to DH (while working a bit on 1b, because see below). All players can get hurt at any point, but some do seem to consistently be available or miss time. Based on his career track record, Devers is a very good bet to play 140ish games. Who else is?
Here are games played going backward from last season, in mamy cases using minor league and rehab stints to count for games played:
1b - Casas - 75, 132, 103, 86. Average is 99 games played, so 63 games of open playing time (call it 280 PA)
I’ve been chugging from that Kool-Aid even more so.Possibly I’m drinking the Kool Aid right now, but I feel the gap between Boston and Baltimore has been narrowed considerably and the Red Sox have a real shot at passing them. But the offseason isn’t over yet.
I dunno, Mayo or Westburg to Seattle for one of the SPs just seems logical to me but what do I know.
Burnes' FIP:I remember reading somewhere that this was intentional. He wanted to pitch deeper into games, and strikeouts take more pitches overall than a weekly hit ball early in the count.
Thanks @simplicioSpeier's bluesky has some more details from the call: https://bsky.app/profile/alexspeier.bsky.social
Breslow on remaining roster needs: Balancing lineup with righties and bullpen. Says the RH bat could take a number of shapes - either OF or IF. “We’ll be open-minded.”
Breslow: “Raffy is our third baseman.”
Breslow on Casas rumors: “I’m not totally sure where it’s come from. We’re not shopping Triston.”
More Breslow on Casas deals: “We were not remotely close” to dealing him.
Breslow on Bregman: “I’m not going to speak about specific pursuits. I can say RH bats that we feel like will play at our park are of interest to us.”
Breslow: “In a perfect world, we’re getting elite-level production from a righthanded bat in the middle of the lineup.” But he adds that there are many paths to that.
Breslow says Yoshida will return to Boston to continue rehabbing in January. Sox feel like he’ll be ready for Opening Day.
Very interesting words here from Breslow.Speier's bluesky has some more details from the call: https://bsky.app/profile/alexspeier.bsky.social
Breslow on remaining roster needs: Balancing lineup with righties and bullpen. Says the RH bat could take a number of shapes - either OF or IF. “We’ll be open-minded.”
Breslow: “Raffy is our third baseman.”
Breslow on Casas rumors: “I’m not totally sure where it’s come from. We’re not shopping Triston.”
More Breslow on Casas deals: “We were not remotely close” to dealing him.
Breslow on Bregman: “I’m not going to speak about specific pursuits. I can say RH bats that we feel like will play at our park are of interest to us.”
Breslow: “In a perfect world, we’re getting elite-level production from a righthanded bat in the middle of the lineup.” But he adds that there are many paths to that.
Breslow says Yoshida will return to Boston to continue rehabbing in January. Sox feel like he’ll be ready for Opening Day.
I’m not sure why Seattle would want to get rid of him, specifically when they have an absence of offense.I have no idea the costs but Randy Arozarena is extremely interesting as a potential bounce back candidate.
Arozarena is not a very good outfielder and the Mariners DH situation (Haniger) is abysmal. His arb estimate for next year is $11.7M (only $7M less than Yoshida's) and probably gets close to matching Yoshida's in his last arb year in 2026.I’m not sure why Seattle would want to get rid of him, specifically when they have an absence of offense.
Casas had an RC+ of 122 against left handers in '23, and 109 in '24.Very interesting words here from Breslow.
Here are your right handed hitters who pull the ball
View attachment 94013
And let’s cross reference for wRC+ for RHB.
View attachment 94014
I have no idea the costs but Randy Arozarena is extremely interesting as a potential bounce back candidate.
Thanks, I should have checked instead of assuming the drop was due to the move. I don't think that really changes the appeal for Seattle though, they are still replacing one 122 wRC+ bat with two 115 wRC+ bats for only $8M added.Arozarena already bounced back. 122 wrc+ after the trade, he's been good for Seattle.
Arozarena would be playing LF not DH.But packaging Abreu just to swap him for Yoshida at DH would be an awful move.
They don't have the $8m to spare, and they'd still need to fill 2B and 3B somehow. I've said it countless times, but while I get why people keep trying to play matchmaker between Boston and Seattle, it's not as simple as "give them one of the hitters because they need hitters!" They have two big holes in the infield, and about $16 million total to work with, less what they wind up giving Justin Turner. If you want to suggest trading Grissom for Randy Roz, maybe. Not too confident, though.Thanks, I should have checked instead of assuming the drop was due to the move. I don't think that really changes the appeal for Seattle though, they are still replacing one 122 wRC+ bat with two 115 wRC+ bats for only $8M added.