Much like Newman, the Sox are not “Ready to deliver”– The 2025 Offseason News (& rumors?) Thread

SouthernBoSox

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2005
12,678
Or any free agent. We have posters (and Lou Merloni) begging for them to try to shoehorn Alex Bregman's decline into the roster when he hasn't been a great player in 5 years.
There are plenty of legitimate reasons to not sign Bregman. It’s an imperfect positional fit, he doesn’t kill lefties, he’ll be expensive, and he’s over 30.

But the bold is BS. He’s 4th in the AL in WAR the last 5 years. Sandwiched between Jose Ramirez and Altuve.

He’s been a great player. You can make the argument he won’t be great in the future. But you’re flat out dishonest saying he hasn’t been a great player.
 

OCD SS

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
First part last
Bregman would reenforce that acknowledgement that they are going for it. Not in 2026 or 2027 but right now.
Doesn’t Crochet do that?

I think that…. It’s hard to really type out but I think there needs to be a real sense of urgency with the Sox. It’s not just about spending it’s acknowledging that the window to win a World Series is now. The AL is horrible compared to the NL. The Red Sox probably have the most talented roster in the AL when you factor in they have players who should improve with time vs the Yankees who have players leaving their prime.
The idea of windows is just bullshit and so are “guaranteed” teams built in the offseason. If the Sox have the most talented roster then they don’t need to fuck it up by rearranging everyone in order to squeeze in a declining veteran who wants a big contract. They’re better off getting out of their own way and getting behind their young players rather than signing the big name (who frankly isn’t that big).
 

Mike473

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2006
203
I have no idea what we will get out of Buehler, and same for last years pick up Giolito. We are down a right handed power hitter and a closer from last year.

I give the Sox a B- partly because they really hyped it up going into the offseason and I think it has been a good offseason, but underwhelming all things considered. I still don't think the team is constructed well for Fenway Park. But, they are improved and I think get into the mid 80s and make the playoffs.
 

marcoscutaro

New Member
Jun 15, 2024
175
Apropos of these two posts, I will say that the Orioles and Mariners are the teams who should be trying to work a hitting-for-pitching trade, makes a lot more sense on paper than most of what gets suggested around here.
My thoughts exactly, that rotation is utter trash and the Orioles haven’t done much except add Tyler O’Neill. They should be panicking. Would be shocked if the Mets are really going forward with that rotation too.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2022
1,865
I still don't think the team is constructed well for Fenway Park. But, they are improved and I think get into the mid 80s and make the playoffs.
Agree with this portion totally. (And I think the B- is fair, I’m just much more optimistic for this season than I have been since 2019, thus the B).

I will say, I think they’ve decently replaced Jansen. Or, I‘m equally confident in Hendriks and Chapman as I would’ve been Jansen and Martin, mabye even more so because they both have closing experience. Having Crawford added to the bullpen is also a big help, as he’s been considerably better as a relief pitcher on rate stats than he has as a starter.

His greatest ”asset” as a starter is to take the ball 30x a year and generally not suck - which on a cheap contract is really helpful. In the bullpen, his stuff has played up a good bit more when he isn’t asked to do as much.

Also, as to losing O’Neill, while Casas obviously is not right handed, I will say I have MUCH more confidence in Casas v2025 equaling O’Neill v2024 than I do O’Neill v2025 equaling O’Neill v2024.

The problem of course being, if we expect Devers to be “the same” and Casas to equal O’Neill (which I do) the team has done nothing to improve the offense otherwise. It also doesn’t look like they’re going to. The pitching has improved enough that it should net out positively.

The offense is still “average” (if we grade pitching “up” the curve due to the difficulty of navigating Fenway, we have to be consistent and grade the offense “down” the curve due to how much of a hitter’s park it plays as.) They haven’t been good at home in a while (for runs scored at home, they were 13th in 2024, 8th in 2023, 6th in 2022). For a park that profiles as the 2nd best hitter’s park in the game, only scoring (on average) the 9th most runs there is plain old not good enough.

To this point they have done nothing to suggest it’s going to improve from that level. The “run prevention” portion has of course been helped by the pitching, but the infield defense remains the same issue.
 

chawson

Hoping for delivery
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
5,220
I think that…. It’s hard to really type out but I think there needs to be a real sense of urgency with the Sox. It’s not just about spending it’s acknowledging that the window to win a World Series is now. The AL is horrible compared to the NL. The Red Sox probably have the most talented roster in the AL when you factor in they have players who should improve with time vs the Yankees who have players leaving their prime.

Bregman would reenforce that acknowledgement that they are going for it. Not in 2026 or 2027 but right now.

They are two moves away from being a top 2-3 team in the AL. One that can go to the World Series.

View: https://twitter.com/loumerloni/status/1872892140189290965?s=46
I agree with this. Getting Crochet is the signal that the window is open.

I’m agnostic on Bregman at this point. Signing him seems like a solution looking for a problem, for us. I feel like we’ve got three 3+ win second basemen already on the team. Still, I’d feel some relief if they did. He could certainly help.

I think more will happen anyway, probably in another blockbuster trade. I think there are a lot of teams looking to shed contracts for good players — guys who look reasonable relative to this winter’s market but are nonetheless expensive in a league where half the teams are facing economic volatility from TV deals, etc.

I think there will be a lot of January trades.
 

Max Power

thai good. you like shirt?
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
9,032
Boston, MA
There are plenty of legitimate reasons to not sign Bregman. It’s an imperfect positional fit, he doesn’t kill lefties, he’ll be expensive, and he’s over 30.

But the bold is BS. He’s 4th in the AL in WAR the last 5 years. Sandwiched between Jose Ramirez and Altuve.

He’s been a great player. You can make the argument he won’t be great in the future. But you’re flat out dishonest saying he hasn’t been a great player.
He was a great player in 2018 and 2019 when they were cheating. He put up a 152 and 162 OPS+. Since then it's been 117, 113, 134, 122, and 118. That's fine, but hardly great.

WAR is totally overused as a basis for arguments on this board. It's a rough shorthand for overall player value, but even the people who invented it will tell you a 2 WAR difference in a single season is within the margin for error. The defensive component is basically garbage and the positional adjustments are total guesswork.
 

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
14,930
The problem of course being, if we expect Devers to be “the same” and Casas to equal O’Neill (which I do) the team has done nothing to improve the offense otherwise.
Time will tell of course, but Campbell and Anthony are likely to play most of the season in the majors. If they have good rookie seasons, the offense looks a lot better.

Certainly there should be big error bars on expectations for any rookie, but I wouldn't automatically assume the offense is going to be similar. We have 2 of the top offensive prospects in baseball knocking on the door.
 

SouthernBoSox

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2005
12,678
I agree with this. Getting Crochet is the signal that the window is open.

I’m agnostic on Bregman at this point. Signing him seems like a solution looking for a problem, for us. I feel like we’ve got three 3+ win second basemen already on the team. Still, I’d feel some relief if they did. He could certainly help.

I think more will happen anyway, probably in another blockbuster trade. I think there are a lot of teams looking to shed contracts for good players — guys who look reasonable relative to this winter’s market but are nonetheless expensive in a league where half the teams are facing economic volatility from TV deals, etc.

I think there will be a lot of January trades.
Out of curiosity. Who do you have in mind here in particular?
 

moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
8,979
He was a great player in 2018 and 2019 when they were cheating. He put up a 152 and 162 OPS+. Since then it's been 117, 113, 134, 122, and 118. That's fine, but hardly great.
Whether you want to use WAR or something else to measure it, that’s either great or pretty close to it when combined with top level defense at 3B. Certainly more than “fine”.
 

Max Power

thai good. you like shirt?
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
9,032
Boston, MA
Whether you want to use WAR or something else to measure it, that’s either great or pretty close to it when combined with top level defense at 3B. Certainly more than “fine”.
I think we're arguing semantics. He's been a top 25 hitter in the league who plays good defense and hasn't made a single All Star team in 5 years. That's a good player, but I'd only use the word "great" for top 5 or 10 hitters. The true MVP candidate types.
 

RS2004foreever

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 15, 2022
1,630
He was a great player in 2018 and 2019 when they were cheating. He put up a 152 and 162 OPS+. Since then it's been 117, 113, 134, 122, and 118. That's fine, but hardly great.

WAR is totally overused as a basis for arguments on this board. It's a rough shorthand for overall player value, but even the people who invented it will tell you a 2 WAR difference in a single season is within the margin for error. The defensive component is basically garbage and the positional adjustments are total guesswork.
Not a fan of WAR either. Bergman is a good player. Not great.
 

kazuneko

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 10, 2006
3,109
Honolulu HI
Whether you want to use WAR or something else to measure it, that’s either great or pretty close to it when combined with top level defense at 3B. Certainly more than “fine”.
I think one problem with Bregman is they are supposedly looking to acquire him for 2b - where it’s not even clear that he’s defensively strong. Don’t like the idea of Bregman but if they acquire him it has to be for 3b (with Yoshida traded and Devers moving to DH). His defense at 3b is a huge part of his value- at 2b he may very well be subpar.
 
Last edited:

loneredseat

New Member
Dec 8, 2023
292
Borderline great:)
I think at some point the price becomes worth it.
I'd like to see him used as a sorta super utility guy, giving devers and story relief (while they DH or take a day off).
I was against the idea at first but as his price drops I'm liking the idea more.
 

chawson

Hoping for delivery
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
5,220
Out of curiosity. Who do you have in mind here in particular?
The Twins, Angels, Padres, Diamondbacks, Phillies, Cardinals, Blue Jays, Mariners and White Sox all have interesting players that either don’t make sense or otherwise seem too expensive for where they’re at in their contention windows.

Bregman’s market has got to be complicated by the availability of Alec Bohm (who Dombrowski has reportedly been aggressively trying to shed, possibly to sign Bregman himself), Arenado, Correa (open to moving to 3B) and even Jeimer Candelario. The Jays may move Vlad, who played an average 3B in 100 innings last year, now that they’ve whiffed everywhere in FA. A few of these would be more preferable to me than a 6- or 7-year deal for Bregman.

I suppose we’re interested in him to play 2B. Maybe! I don’t buy it, personally. Just play Campbell.
 

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
14,930
Whether you want to use WAR or something else to measure it, that’s either great or pretty close to it when combined with top level defense at 3B. Certainly more than “fine”.
I think everyone is pretty much saying the same thing, no need for anyone to disparage WAR in this case.

Bregman has been a 4-5 WAR player the last 3 years and projects to be 4-ish WAR this year. That would put him on the edge of a top 30 or so non-pitcher. Certainly a really nice player to have on your team and a "very good" player, or whatever adjective people want to use.

I tend to agree I think we should be considering Bregman a primary 3B if we want to sign him, not sure he would keep the same value at 2B. I think Campbell is most likely going to be in the infield (at least in the near term), in which case Devers would not be the primary 3B if we sign Bregman anyway.
 

kazuneko

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 10, 2006
3,109
Honolulu HI
The Jays may move Vlad, who played an average 3B in 100 innings last year, now that they’ve whiffed everywhere in FA.
Vlad makes Raffy look like a gold glover at 3b. He’s an abominable -14 OAA in a bit more than 900 career innings (less than a full season) there. I don’t think anyone is acquiring him for the hot corner.
 
Last edited:

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
13,108
This is an excellent post and I enjoyed it. That said, perhaps Trader Jerry is just demanding the sun and moon now to gage the market and he’ll bring the price down and eventually trade Castillo. Maybe the trade wasn’t quite proposed as reported and he’s not getting very good offers for him because we can also see the road ERA, etc. The risk is teams filling their needs elsewhere, like the Sox, but maybe the thought is there will always be enough demand for SP in this market to get a decent return when he wants to pull the trigger.
The rumors were that Boston was looking for Woo or Miller for Casas, the recent (and heavily revised) version makes it seem like Seattle wanted to dump salary (Castillo) on Boston for getting back a young 1B with high power upside. Meaning that the recently outlined version probably had Boston demanding more for eating Castillo's deal or that Seattle also take back a salary dump. The most likely scenario is that Seattle took a hard line on getting a big return for their problem contract and wasn't willing to budge. Thank god as Castillo just isn't that good anymore.
 

grimshaw

Member
SoSH Member
May 16, 2007
4,519
Portland
I think everyone is pretty much saying the same thing, no need for anyone to disparage WAR in this case.

Bregman has been a 4-5 WAR player the last 3 years and projects to be 4-ish WAR this year. That would put him on the edge of a top 30 or so non-pitcher. Certainly a really nice player to have on your team and a "very good" player, or whatever adjective people want to use.

I tend to agree I think we should be considering Bregman a primary 3B if we want to sign him, not sure he would keep the same value at 2B. I think Campbell is most likely going to be in the infield (at least in the near term), in which case Devers would not be the primary 3B if we sign Bregman anyway.
Eliminating WAR entirely, the offensive upgrade alone should speak for itself. They've gotten like a wRC+ of 90 the past several seasons at the position. Bregman's like 30 points higher. That's the gap between someone like Raffy (.354/.516) and Gleyber Torres (.330/.378). He doesn't need to be a great hitter to be far superior to what they have had.
 

simplicio

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 11, 2012
10,040
Eliminating WAR entirely, the offensive upgrade alone should speak for itself. They've gotten like a wRC+ of 90 the past several seasons at the position. Bregman's like 30 points higher. That's the gap between someone like Raffy (.354/.516) and Gleyber Torres (.330/.378). He doesn't need to be a great hitter to be far superior to what they have had.
Neither do Grissom or Campbell.
 

Margo McCready

New Member
Dec 23, 2008
257
First part last

Doesn’t Crochet do that?



The idea of windows is just bullshit and so are “guaranteed” teams built in the offseason. If the Sox have the most talented roster then they don’t need to fuck it up by rearranging everyone in order to squeeze in a declining veteran who wants a big contract. They’re better off getting out of their own way and getting behind their young players rather than signing the big name (who frankly isn’t that big).
Right?? Whatever happened to to getting out from under a player a year too early instead of a year too late?
 

BaseballJones

slappy happy
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
27,677
That's a shit ton of money for a smallish market team to be paying a 30+ year old with a cratering K rate. I like the D-Backs a lot, so I hope it works out. That's a terrifying contract to me, though.
Burnes' K rate:
2021: 12.6 k/9
2022: 10.8 k/9
2023: 9.3 k/9
2024: 8.4 k/9

MLB K rate:
2021: 8.9 k/9
2022: 8.5 k/9
2023: 8.7 k/9
2024: 8.6 k/9

So MLB K rates have gone down some on average, but Burnes' K rate has dropped at a much faster rate. He's definitely losing some of his swing-and-miss ability. Looking a little deeper, here's his strike percentage both looking and swinging:

Looking
2021: 26.0%
2022: 27.0%
2023: 26.9%
2024: 24.3%

Swinging
2021: 27.6%
2022: 25.7%
2023: 21.0%
2024: 21.7%

So from 2021 to 2024, he's seen a marked decrease in his ability to get strikes on hitters. He doesn't get as many looking strikes, and he gets way fewer swinging strikes. He went from being an elite strikeout guy to a below average strikeout guy. Doesn't mean he can't be a good pitcher - obviously his overall results have been fantastic. You can win a lot without being an elite strikeout guy. But make no mistake, his ability to strike guys out has decreased considerably.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 23, 2001
10,698
I recall a Bill James piece in the late 1980s or thereabouts that went something like this -

Most pitchers get to the big leagues because they can strike out a lot of batters. They are proud of their ability to do so.

Around 30, give or take, pitchers start to decline physically and are no longer able to blow batters away as they could in the past. But they are often too proud to admit this.

The pitchers who endure and succeed through their 30s are the ones who transition from getting batters out with their physical skills to getting them out with their smarts. It often takes a year or two for pitchers to figure out this transition.

Maybe Burnes' continues success despite declining strikeout rates means that he has made this transition well.
 
Last edited:

loneredseat

New Member
Dec 8, 2023
292
I remember reading somewhere that this was intentional. He wanted to pitch deeper into games, and strikeouts take more pitches overall than a weekly hit ball early in the count.
 

Yelling At Clouds

Post-darwinian
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
4,123
My thoughts exactly, that rotation is utter trash and the Orioles haven’t done much except add Tyler O’Neill. They should be panicking.
Possibly I’m drinking the Kool Aid right now, but I feel the gap between Boston and Baltimore has been narrowed considerably and the Red Sox have a real shot at passing them. But the offseason isn’t over yet.

I dunno, Mayo or Westburg to Seattle for one of the SPs just seems logical to me but what do I know.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2022
1,865
The problem I have with Bergman at second.
As someone that has made no secret of his desire to sign Bregman, in my mind it’s not to play 2b.

I also really think people are over-estimating how much signing one core bat will block any of the prospects.

Let’s assume (in my world) Bregman is signed to play 3b and Devers to DH (while working a bit on 1b, because see below). All players can get hurt at any point, but some do seem to consistently be available or miss time. Based on his career track record, Devers is a very good bet to play 140ish games. Who else is?

Here are games played going backward from last season, in mamy cases using minor league and rehab stints to count for games played:

1b - Casas - 75, 132, 103, 86. Average is 99 games played, so 63 games of open playing time (call it 280 PA)
2b - wide open anyway. I’ll just assume this is Campbell being good for 150 games. Leaves 12 open (55PA).
SS - Story - 30, 56, 96 (and Mayer 77, 78, 91). Average is 61 games (Story). Leaves 101 games (450PA)
3b - “Bregman” 145, 161, 155. Average is 153. 9 games left (40 PA)
LF - wide open anyway. I’ll just assume this is Anthony being good for 150 games also. 12 open (55PA)
CF - Duran 160, 113, 126, 93. Average is 123 games. 39 left (175PA).
RF - Abreu 135, 104, 129. Average is also 123 (175PA).
DH - Devers 138, 153, 141. Average is 144. 18 left (80PA).

Using games played averages over multiple seasons of data, and just plain old assuming already that Anthony and Campbell are already starting and producing for 150 games as rookies, that leaves 1310 PA left. You could be giving 400 PA to each of Rafaela, Grissom and Mayer (if he’s healthy, if not they’re probably going to Hamilton) and still have around 100 left.



Signing Bregman or anyone else may well take at bats away from Refsnyder or Romy Gonzalez. It’s highly unlikely they’d be losing any from “the kids”. Its really not a question of Bregman (or whoever) vs the kids.There are highly likely to be plenty of PAs for all of them.
 

SouthernBoSox

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2005
12,678
As someone that has made no secret of his desire to sign Bregman, in my mind it’s not to play 2b.

I also really think people are over-estimating how much signing one core bat will block any of the prospects.

Let’s assume (in my world) Bregman is signed to play 3b and Devers to DH (while working a bit on 1b, because see below). All players can get hurt at any point, but some do seem to consistently be available or miss time. Based on his career track record, Devers is a very good bet to play 140ish games. Who else is?

Here are games played going backward from last season, in mamy cases using minor league and rehab stints to count for games played:

1b - Casas - 75, 132, 103, 86. Average is 99 games played, so 63 games of open playing time (call it 280 PA)
2b - wide open anyway. I’ll just assume this is Campbell being good for 150 games. Leaves 12 open (55PA).
SS - Story - 30, 56, 96 (and Mayer 77, 78, 91). Average is 61 games (Story). Leaves 101 games (450PA)
3b - “Bregman” 145, 161, 155. Average is 153. 9 games left (40 PA)
LF - wide open anyway. I’ll just assume this is Anthony being good for 150 games also. 12 open (55PA)
CF - Duran 160, 113, 126, 93. Average is 123 games. 39 left (175PA).
RF - Abreu 135, 104, 129. Average is also 123 (175PA).
DH - Devers 138, 153, 141. Average is 144. 18 left (80PA).

Using games played averages over multiple seasons of data, and just plain old assuming already that Anthony and Campbell are already starting and producing for 150 games as rookies, that leaves 1310 PA left. You could be giving 400 PA to each of Rafaela, Grissom and Mayer (if he’s healthy, if not they’re probably going to Hamilton) and still have around 100 left.



Signing Bregman or anyone else may well take at bats away from Refsnyder or Romy Gonzalez. It’s highly unlikely they’d be losing any from “the kids”. Its really not a question of Bregman (or whoever) vs the kids.There are highly likely to be plenty of PAs for all of them.
Absolutely, the idea the roster is “clogged” just isn’t true. If Campbell and Roman are the real deal it won’t be challenging to give them at bats.

And this doesn’t get to the point that adding someone like Bregman makes trading Abreu much more palatable. It just adds a lot of depth and upside to the roster.
 

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
14,930
As someone that has made no secret of his desire to sign Bregman, in my mind it’s not to play 2b.

I also really think people are over-estimating how much signing one core bat will block any of the prospects.
Agree completely. I think saying we are 1 core bat short is a good way to put it.

The only way Bregman is blocked is if the FO/Cora is too afraid to have a conversation with Devers and tell him he is not the primary 3B anymore.

I suppose you could argue if Anthony, Campbell, and Mayer all hit, AND Story is healthy/productive, AND we have no OF injuries or make any trades.... then Bregman could end up being redundant.

There is a VERY small chance of all that happening....and if it did, we would all be thrilled.
 

OCD SS

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
So how do you square that with the team saying that they're not moving Devers off 3B? You're also completely ignoring Grissom and Yoshida in your roster construction.

Squeezing Bregman in on a long-term contract requires contorting everyone around into new postions to fit him in. This issue isn't that Bregman wouldn't be a nice bat to add on a short-term deal, it's that you can't wish the rest of the players off the roster and it seems unlikely that the FO is just going to waive them and eat the money. If the team makes a trade that opens up space, then we'll talk (or I guess if they do sign him, we should expect another move to be coming).
 

Cassvt2023

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 17, 2023
1,257
So how do you square that with the team saying that they're not moving Devers off 3B? You're also completely ignoring Grissom and Yoshida in your roster construction.

Squeezing Bregman in on a long-term contract requires contorting everyone around into new postions to fit him in. This issue isn't that Bregman wouldn't be a nice bat to add on a short-term deal, it's that you can't wish the rest of the players off the roster and it seems unlikely that the FO is just going to waive them and eat the money. If the team makes a trade that opens up space, then we'll talk (or I guess if they do sign him, we should expect another move to be coming).
this makes a ton of sense in my brain. If Cora wasn’t the Sox manager, no one would be talking about Bregman coming here. There are too many reasons it makes absolutely no sense.
 

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
14,930
So how do you square that with the team saying that they're not moving Devers off 3B? You're also completely ignoring Grissom and Yoshida in your roster construction.

Squeezing Bregman in on a long-term contract requires contorting everyone around into new postions to fit him in. This issue isn't that Bregman wouldn't be a nice bat to add on a short-term deal, it's that you can't wish the rest of the players off the roster and it seems unlikely that the FO is just going to waive them and eat the money. If the team makes a trade that opens up space, then we'll talk (or I guess if they do sign him, we should expect another move to be coming).
They can say what they want, but they know Devers is a bad 3B and moving him would be good for the team. Unless they actually have a new plan in place I expect them to say Devers is the 3B (they kind of have to), but that doesn't mean it'll happen.

At this point I would not count on Grissom for much. If they feel strongly he is going to be a major piece moving forward then maybe there is a logjam, but I have nowhere near that kind of faith.

Yoshida is a fringe piece we would be happy to dump for a bag of balls and pay 50+% of his salary. If we are serious about contending over the next 2-3 years I don't we need to be making room for him given what else we have on the roster.

If we sign no one else and we are unable to dump Yoshida's contract, then yes Devers at 3B and Yoshida as primary DH is fine, but I would say it's hardly optimal.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
15,694
So how do you square that with the team saying that they're not moving Devers off 3B? You're also completely ignoring Grissom and Yoshida in your roster construction.

Squeezing Bregman in on a long-term contract requires contorting everyone around into new postions to fit him in. This issue isn't that Bregman wouldn't be a nice bat to add on a short-term deal, it's that you can't wish the rest of the players off the roster and it seems unlikely that the FO is just going to waive them and eat the money. If the team makes a trade that opens up space, then we'll talk (or I guess if they do sign him, we should expect another move to be coming).
Remember last year when they said that Yoshida wasn’t moving off of LF? There’s no point in publicly stating that they plan to Devers when they don’t have a replacement, haven’t talked to him about it, and when it might not happen. I wouldn’t put much stock into those statements at this point, things can change.
 

marcoscutaro

New Member
Jun 15, 2024
175
Let’s assume (in my world) Bregman is signed to play 3b and Devers to DH (while working a bit on 1b, because see below). All players can get hurt at any point, but some do seem to consistently be available or miss time. Based on his career track record, Devers is a very good bet to play 140ish games. Who else is?

Here are games played going backward from last season, in mamy cases using minor league and rehab stints to count for games played:

1b - Casas - 75, 132, 103, 86. Average is 99 games played, so 63 games of open playing time (call it 280 PA)
It should be illegal to post this without the following caveats:

- Casas got platooned by Cora plenty in 2023 and really only missed ten or so games right at the end of the season that Cora didn’t think was worth pushing him through as they were out of contention.

- As for his 2021 season, are you forgetting he spent a large chunk of time away with Team USA playing Olympic qualifiers and in the actual Olympics, not to mention quarantining? That’s even before factoring in that the double A season didn’t begin until May & that he played in the Arizona Fall League!

- You’re going to be really upset when you hear he didn’t play a single game in 2020!

I think Lou Merloni is responsible for this narrative, which doesn’t surprise me given he’s not exactly one to look deeper into things, but I thought SOSH would know better. Talking about Casas and Story, both of whom experienced freak accidents like they’re Tyler Glasnow & Byron Buxton is just so fundamentally dishonest. The game is a grind and absent conditioning issues, which none of these injuries were, shit happens and the only variable is luck.

Honestly so sick of reading this.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
7,618
Possibly I’m drinking the Kool Aid right now, but I feel the gap between Boston and Baltimore has been narrowed considerably and the Red Sox have a real shot at passing them. But the offseason isn’t over yet.

I dunno, Mayo or Westburg to Seattle for one of the SPs just seems logical to me but what do I know.
I’ve been chugging from that Kool-Aid even more so.
Offensively I see the teams as equals- even better now than NYY’s. Starting pitching is a tip to NY, with Boston behind them.
I’d rank the AL- right now, as
1- NYY
2- Boston
3- Orioles
4- Houston
5- Cleveland
6- Detroit
7- Seattle
8- KC
9-Minnesota
10- Texas
11- Rays
12- Toronto
13- A’s
14- Angels
15- Chicago
 

chrisfont9

Member
SoSH Member
I remember reading somewhere that this was intentional. He wanted to pitch deeper into games, and strikeouts take more pitches overall than a weekly hit ball early in the count.
Burnes' FIP:

2021. 1.63
2022. 3.14
2023. 3.81
2024. 3.55

Not sure what this says. Maybe that 2021 was an outlier? It was only 167 innings, whereas he's been up around 200 since then, which would support the statement you made. He's sacrificing peak performance for length. His WAR has gone from 5.3 to 4.3 to 3.4, but. he's eating up someone's inferior innings (presumably) or at least resting the bullpen.
 

simplicio

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 11, 2012
10,040
Speier's bluesky has some more details from the call: https://bsky.app/profile/alexspeier.bsky.social

Breslow on remaining roster needs: Balancing lineup with righties and bullpen. Says the RH bat could take a number of shapes - either OF or IF. “We’ll be open-minded.”

Breslow: “Raffy is our third baseman.”

Breslow on Casas rumors: “I’m not totally sure where it’s come from. We’re not shopping Triston.”

More Breslow on Casas deals: “We were not remotely close” to dealing him.

Breslow on Bregman: “I’m not going to speak about specific pursuits. I can say RH bats that we feel like will play at our park are of interest to us.”

Breslow: “In a perfect world, we’re getting elite-level production from a righthanded bat in the middle of the lineup.” But he adds that there are many paths to that.

Breslow says Yoshida will return to Boston to continue rehabbing in January. Sox feel like he’ll be ready for Opening Day.
 

Cassvt2023

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 17, 2023
1,257
Speier's bluesky has some more details from the call: https://bsky.app/profile/alexspeier.bsky.social

Breslow on remaining roster needs: Balancing lineup with righties and bullpen. Says the RH bat could take a number of shapes - either OF or IF. “We’ll be open-minded.”

Breslow: “Raffy is our third baseman.”

Breslow on Casas rumors: “I’m not totally sure where it’s come from. We’re not shopping Triston.”

More Breslow on Casas deals: “We were not remotely close” to dealing him.

Breslow on Bregman: “I’m not going to speak about specific pursuits. I can say RH bats that we feel like will play at our park are of interest to us.”

Breslow: “In a perfect world, we’re getting elite-level production from a righthanded bat in the middle of the lineup.” But he adds that there are many paths to that.

Breslow says Yoshida will return to Boston to continue rehabbing in January. Sox feel like he’ll be ready for Opening Day.
Thanks @simplicio
 

SouthernBoSox

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2005
12,678
Speier's bluesky has some more details from the call: https://bsky.app/profile/alexspeier.bsky.social

Breslow on remaining roster needs: Balancing lineup with righties and bullpen. Says the RH bat could take a number of shapes - either OF or IF. “We’ll be open-minded.”

Breslow: “Raffy is our third baseman.”

Breslow on Casas rumors: “I’m not totally sure where it’s come from. We’re not shopping Triston.”

More Breslow on Casas deals: “We were not remotely close” to dealing him.

Breslow on Bregman: “I’m not going to speak about specific pursuits. I can say RH bats that we feel like will play at our park are of interest to us.”

Breslow: “In a perfect world, we’re getting elite-level production from a righthanded bat in the middle of the lineup.” But he adds that there are many paths to that.

Breslow says Yoshida will return to Boston to continue rehabbing in January. Sox feel like he’ll be ready for Opening Day.
Very interesting words here from Breslow.

Here are your right handed hitters who pull the ball

94013


And let’s cross reference for wRC+ for RHB.



94014


I have no idea the costs but Randy Arozarena is extremely interesting as a potential bounce back candidate.
 

Jack Rabbit Slim

Member
SoSH Member
May 19, 2010
1,363
I’m not sure why Seattle would want to get rid of him, specifically when they have an absence of offense.
Arozarena is not a very good outfielder and the Mariners DH situation (Haniger) is abysmal. His arb estimate for next year is $11.7M (only $7M less than Yoshida's) and probably gets close to matching Yoshida's in his last arb year in 2026.

I think something like Arozarena for Abreu+Yoshida makes sense for both teams.

The M's replace Arozarena with a better defender/similar bat in Abreu for minimum salary and greatly improve their DH situation for a total payroll increase of about $8M. In 2026 it gets even better for them since the difference in cost between Arozarena and Yoshida is likely negligible and they still have a cheap Abreu for years.

The Sox pick a RHH LF who will hopefully bounce back to his 125 wRC+ typical performance once out of T-Mobile and save some money in the swap. They also open up RF for Anthony (better optimizing his value) and DH for a RHH addition. This could either be Bregman with Devers moving to DH or just a straight RHH DH addition (not sure who that would be with the obvious Teoscar fit off the board).
 

simplicio

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 11, 2012
10,040
Arozarena already bounced back. 122 wrc+ after the trade, he's been good for Seattle.

But packaging Abreu just to swap him for Yoshida at DH would be an awful move.
 

Jack Rabbit Slim

Member
SoSH Member
May 19, 2010
1,363
Arozarena already bounced back. 122 wrc+ after the trade, he's been good for Seattle.
Thanks, I should have checked instead of assuming the drop was due to the move. I don't think that really changes the appeal for Seattle though, they are still replacing one 122 wRC+ bat with two 115 wRC+ bats for only $8M added.

But packaging Abreu just to swap him for Yoshida at DH would be an awful move.
Arozarena would be playing LF not DH.

I think it really comes down to the projection on Abreu. There has been lots of argument throughout the offseason on Yoshida's value but I think we all agree he is underwater on his contract (I personally think absent the uncertainty around the shoulder injury he is probably worth $10-12M AAV). And just due to the nature of arbitration, Arozarena certainly has surplus value. So that difference is paid for with the cheap years of Abreu. If your projection is that Abreu is going to get markedly better as he ages (either starting to hit LHP or getting much better against RHP) then that is too much to give up. But it is also easy to project Abreu continuing to be a 3 WAR RF in need of a platoon partner while also forcing Anthony into LF (not optimal IMO since he is a good defender) and making it very difficult to balance the lineup for the foreseeable future.
 

SouthernBoSox

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2005
12,678
Breslow was asked about Rafaela and his role on this team and he heavily insinuated they vote him as a gold glove center fielder who would benefit from only playing center.

He very much sounded like they view him as a set it and forget it starter in centerfield.
 

Yelling At Clouds

Post-darwinian
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
4,123
Thanks, I should have checked instead of assuming the drop was due to the move. I don't think that really changes the appeal for Seattle though, they are still replacing one 122 wRC+ bat with two 115 wRC+ bats for only $8M added.
They don't have the $8m to spare, and they'd still need to fill 2B and 3B somehow. I've said it countless times, but while I get why people keep trying to play matchmaker between Boston and Seattle, it's not as simple as "give them one of the hitters because they need hitters!" They have two big holes in the infield, and about $16 million total to work with, less what they wind up giving Justin Turner. If you want to suggest trading Grissom for Randy Roz, maybe. Not too confident, though.