Much like Newman, the Sox are not “Ready to deliver”– The 2025 Offseason News (& rumors?) Thread

Hank Scorpio

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@hgomez27 - Boston is on Santander, and Teoscar is likely to resign with LA.

My read of the rumors was Casas was not offered for Costillo.
Hard pass on Santander. His HR totals spiked dramatically this season to 44, and he still only barely managed an .800 OPS. He strikes out a ton, has terrible contact skills, and to me feels like a perfect candidate to become whichever of Chris/Khris Davis completely fell apart on the Orioles, or late-career Ryan Howard.

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BaseballJones

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Hard pass on Santander. His HR totals spiked dramatically this season to 44, and he still only barely managed an .800 OPS. He strikes out a ton, has terrible contact skills, and to me feels like a perfect candidate to become whichever of Chris/Khris Davis completely fell apart on the Orioles, or late-career Ryan Howard.

View attachment 93178
Breslow has to know all this data right? He can’t just look at 44 homers and say we need this guy?
 

6-5 Sadler

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He strikes out a ton, has terrible contact skills, and to me feels like a perfect candidate to become whichever of Chris/Khris Davis completely fell apart on the Orioles, or late-career Ryan Howard.
I’m not sure the player you are describing here matches the data you posted below. He was in the 66th percentile for K rate and 77th percentile for whiff rate. Those are both good and especially good for a power hitter. In fact, for qualified players with an IsoP above .250 last year, the only players who struck out less were a who’s who of the best hitters in the game (Jose Ramirez, Witt, Yordan, Soto, Marte).

I don’t want Santander for a variety of reasons, but K rate and contact skills aren’t among them.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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What does Santander offer that O'Neill doesn't? O'Neill is much better against lefties (even though Santander is also decent). Santander has been much better against righties, but would also be moving to a park that blunts LH pull power. Neither player is a good fielder. What am I missing?
Consistency and availability would be my short, glib answer. More thought out:


My take on this - and I know that this always opens up a can of worms - but it is something I'd look at as a GM. Obviously, all players and any players can get hurt at any time. Some players tend to be more frequently available than others. Looking at the last four years (and they're the same age):

O'Neill has played in 419 total games, for an average of 105 per year (and his high water mark was 138 games 4 seasons ago, in 2021, since then he has not played 115g in any season).

Santander has played in 570 total games for an average of 143 per year (and his low water mark was also 4 years ago, at 110g - the last 3 he's been over 150 each year).

As to how he'd fit in Fenway Park, for starters, I agree that 2024 was an outlier for Santander - plenty of guys have good contract years that don't look much like the prior several (same as Tyler O'Neill, for what it's worth). I'm not going to pretend to know what launch angle a fly ball needs to be sent at in order to clear the Wall as opposed to a single or a double, I have no idea, but looking at an overlay of Santader's spray chart (and I chose 2023 because I agree that 2024 was an outlier) it looks like a lot of his "outs" would turn into much more positive events at Fenway Park, especially those hit to left and left center.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/illustrator?playerId=623993&playerType=batter&name=Anthony Santander&tabSelection=0&shape=square&shapeName=Square (Instagram)&subTitle=&chartType=sprayChart&chartName=Spray Chart&pitcherThrows=&batterStands=&plateAppearanceResults=[]&pitchTypes=[]&seasonType=["R"]&pitchResults=[]&facingPlayer=[]&balls=[]&battedBallType=[]&years=[2023]&strikes=[]&outs=[]&selectedGames=[]&homeTeam=[]&awayTeam=[]&vsTeam=[]&exitVelocityGT=0&exitVelocityLT=125&pitchVelocityGT=0&pitchVelocityLT=105&launchAngleGT=-90&launchAngleLT=90&perspective=catcher&venue=3


Besides that, he does offer at least "some" protection in the event of another injury to Casas. Santander has appeared in ~15 games at 1b in his career, most coming in the last two seasons. O'Neill to my knowledge has never played the position.

While I will (admittedly too liberally for some) use the injury prone label to someone that has missed a ton of time over the course of their career, especially recently in the case of current players (Ellsbury, Stanton, Story, O'Neill) I'm not one to throw the injury prone label on someone for one instance (Casas), HOWEVER because he did miss such significant time, having someone that could slide from DH (where Santander would be in my plan) to 1b would be helpful a benefit, I'd think.

In summation, I'd far rather have 4 years of Santander than 3 of O'Neill (and 1 of O'Neill). But I know other people disagree on the way to use and spend on a DH. If Breslow and company are committed to the idea of Devers staying at 3b for the next several years, 4 years on Santander would put Devers at the DH spot entering his age 32 season - which I'd have to assume even those that think Devers should stay at 3b - would concede would be a good time to have him focus on just hitting.

Duran - CF (L)
Story - SS (R)
Devers - 3b (L)
Santander - DH (R)
Casas - 1b (L)
Abreu - RF (L)
Wong - C (R)
Anthony - LF (L)
Campbell / Grissom - 2b (R)

Looks good to me. Plus, if Anthony isn't ready to break camp with the Sox (which I think he will be, but assume he's not) then Santander plays LF until he is.
 
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bosox1534

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If they sign Santander I assume that signals a move for Yoshida, and then have Santander be the main DH, and play the field when one of the outfielders needs a day off. I actually like the signing, as long as it doesn’t force them to move Duran or Abreu. I don’t think anyone wants to see Santander attempt to play RF in Boston, and moving him to LF would force a Duran trade, which I would absolutely despise.
 

NJ_Sox_Fan

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What kind of value does Casas have in trade off an injury impacted season? Are we sure our feelings (similar to top prospects) are not inflating his value?

I know I’ve heard a bunch of comments on MLB Radio about Castillo coming to Boston as a decent move.

He’s one of the guys in the team I will wait for his turn at bat. I’m not sure I’m sold on the personality but I like him while he’s inexpensive.
No, I agree. Moving him now would be moving him at lower than his actual value. I was just saying I wouldn’t want to move him at all unless it’s for an elite SP (not Castillo). Not that I think at this point he could get an elite SP in return. IE, let’s not trade him.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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If they grab Santander they are for sure moving one of Abreu or Duran.
Why?

Santander LF, Duran - CF, Abreu - RF (if Anthony isn't ready)

Santander - DH, Anthony - LF, Duran - CF, Abreu - RF (if Anthony is ready).

I'm not saying someone would not have to be moved, I'm just saying that certainly does not have to be any of the guys you mentioned (or Casas, and I agree he's not going anywhere unless its for a Gilbert/Kirby/Jones level SP and certainly not Castillo).
 

rodderick

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Hard pass on Santander. His HR totals spiked dramatically this season to 44, and he still only barely managed an .800 OPS. He strikes out a ton, has terrible contact skills, and to me feels like a perfect candidate to become whichever of Chris/Khris Davis completely fell apart on the Orioles, or late-career Ryan Howard.

View attachment 93178
If anything maintaining good whiff and K rates while being that bad at chasing tells me Santander has really good contact skills, just bad plate discipline.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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Breslow has to know all this data right? He can’t just look at 44 homers and say we need this guy?
There are 300 people in the front office, if someone hasn't run this up the old flagpole, they should all be fired. All 300 of them.

That's Lou Gorman era thinking GMing and I don't think that Breslow thinks like that. I also don't think Duquette, Port, Epstein, Cherington, Dombrowski or Bloom thought like that either.
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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I can't get behind this team taking on a bad contract to get out of another one. If you have to eat most of Yoshida's deal to help the decluttering process, then sure, but as a contending team, with a very crowded roster, they should only be adding good fits.
I look at this as something similar to the O'Neil / Verdugo swap that wasn't really a swap. Yoshida is a decent player who's a bad fit for this roster. Arenado is a decent player who is a better fit for this roster.
 

iddoc

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If they sign Santander I assume that signals a move for Yoshida, and then have Santander be the main DH, and play the field when one of the outfielders needs a day off. I actually like the signing, as long as it doesn’t force them to move Duran or Abreu. I don’t think anyone wants to see Santander attempt to play RF in Boston, and moving him to LF would force a Duran trade, which I would absolutely despise.
This is also what I envision as Santander's role. Perhaps they would keep Yoshida until they are more sure whether Anthony is ready to take over in LF, with Santander as the insurance policy. If Anthony is indeed ready, trade Yoshida to a team that has a need, perhaps a new need created by a spring training injury.
 

kazuneko

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If they sign Santander, arguably a worse player than O’Neil, for more money than it would have cost them to resign O’Neil, while also having to send a pick to Baltimore, it’s going to be pretty disappointing. They should have just resigned O’Neil, or at least given him a qualifying offer.
At this point Mark Canha might make the most sense - as depressing as that is :(
 

kazuneko

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I wonder if it’s worth considering signing Gleyber Torres. He crushes LHP and is actually a much better hitter against them than any of Bregman, Canha or Santander. Unfortunately he’s not a good defensive 2b, but is Grissom better? Could you include Grissom in a trade for Castillo and sign Torres?
 

Tim Salmon

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I think the question was related to not offering O'Neill the QO. Which is valid. Santander is better than O'Neill. Santander for 4 years vs O'Neill for 1 year? Different question.
Yes, this is where I was going with it. From the outside looking in, it looks like not giving O'Neill a qualifying offer was a big misstep, especially if poor-fielding free agents likely to require 4+ year commitments are being considered to replace his bat. Santander might make sense if a few other roster dominoes fall, but I'm struggling to see where a long-term commitment to Santander makes sense now.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I think Santander is a more balanced player than O’Neill. Career 772/786 vs RH/LH, compared to 751/923 for O’Neill; and O’Neill had the huge split last year. Santander has also been really durable. I think he’d be a good fit; although I wouldn’t want to go more than 3 years.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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.307 career OBP. 1 year deal? Fine. Nothing more.
Agree. We need to accept that this is the market in which this ballclub plays in looking for upgrades. They clearly prefer flawed players/reclamation projects with some upside versus fully priced free agents.

Outside of trades, this is where the upgrades are coming from.
 

kazuneko

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I think Santander is a more balanced player than O’Neill. Career 772/786 vs RH/LH, compared to 751/923 for O’Neill; and O’Neill had the huge split last year. Santander has also been really durable. I think he’d be a good fit; although I wouldn’t want to go more than 3 years.
But this team specifically needs a hitter who can crush LHP and O’Neil wouldn’t have cost the team a draft pick.
Another option -if the team can find a taker for Yoshida is JD Martinez. He’s still crushes LHP and is once again a free agent.
 

Brohamer of the Gods

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Santander is a more balanced hitter and slightly better against RH pitchers. Also, about half of O'Neill's career value comes from one fantastic, outlier season. But O'Neill is also a much better defender. It says something that Baltimore essentially picked O'Neill over Santander.
 

bosox1534

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This is also what I envision as Santander's role. Perhaps they would keep Yoshida until they are more sure whether Anthony is ready to take over in LF, with Santander as the insurance policy. If Anthony is indeed ready, trade Yoshida to a team that has a need, perhaps a new need created by a spring training injury.
I mean currently their outfield is set with Duran Rafaela and Abreu, so I’m not sure Yoshida would be needed even as a backup option for Anthony if they sign Santander. Sign Santander, DH him against righties, play Duran in LF, Rafaela in CF and Abreu in RF, and put Santander in LF when someone needs a day off, and just switch out Refsnyder for Abreu against lefties, and the outfield rotation seems pretty set.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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But this team specifically needs a hitter who can crush LHP and O’Neil wouldn’t have cost the team a draft pick.
Another option -if the team can find a taker for Yoshida is JD Martinez. He’s still crushes LHP and is once again a free agent.
I think they need more good hitters in general. A guy who crushes lefties but is terrible against RH may not be as useful as a guy who is worse against LH but better against RH
 

Sausage in Section 17

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Agree. We need to accept that this is the market in which this ballclub plays in looking for upgrades. They clearly prefer flawed players/reclamation projects with some upside versus fully priced free agents.

Outside of trades, this is where the upgrades are coming from.
This comes close to encapsulating their organizational philosophy over the last 20 years. That's pretty much the approach that netted them David Ortiz. They will spend big in free agency as a last resort, or as a way to find the final missing piece, but otherwise they take the approach you note above. And I accept it. I fully accept it. I understand it to be the better, sober, more calculated approach, and the hallmark of the most successful ownership group in Red Sox history, and in all of MLB thus far in the 21st century. Your mileage clearly varies...
 

chawson

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If they sign Santander, arguably a worse player than O’Neil, for more money than it would have cost them to resign O’Neil, while also having to send a pick to Baltimore, it’s going to be pretty disappointing. They should have just resigned O’Neil, or at least given him a qualifying offer.
At this point Mark Canha might make the most sense - as depressing as that is :(
I wonder if it’s worth considering signing Gleyber Torres. He crushes LHP and is actually a much better hitter against them than any of Bregman, Canha or Santander. Unfortunately he’s not a good defensive 2b, but is Grissom better? Could you include Grissom in a trade for Castillo and sign Torres?
I agree with all of this. I don’t think Santander’s power especially plays well in Fenway and while the switch-hittingness is nice, I genuinely believe he’s a basically similar asset to Yoshida. I think Santander’s a good fit for the Yankees and we’re bluffing to drive up the price.

Torres is the second-youngest free agent hitter behind Soto. Obviously a suspect fielder but the QO is a major factor, and I’d sooner bet on his age 28-30 bat over Santander’s age 30-32, and whatever he’d give us defensively is more valuable than Santander.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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This comes close to encapsulating their organizational philosophy over the last 20 years. That's pretty much the approach that netted them David Ortiz. They will spend big in free agency as a last resort, or as a way to find the final missing piece, but otherwise they take the approach you note above. And I accept it. I fully accept it. I understand it to be the better, sober, more calculated approach, and the hallmark of the most successful ownership group in Red Sox history, and in all of MLB thus far in the 21st century. Your mileage clearly varies...
This strategy feels like it has limited windows. In short, I would expect that when the kids start getting expensive we see another reset and they sell off anyone they weren't able to extend on a team friendly deal.

That said, a Santander signing for short money is better than what they have now and unless they can pry someone loose via trade they aren't likely to find many superior options away.
 

Brohamer of the Gods

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But this team specifically needs a hitter who can crush LHP and O’Neil wouldn’t have cost the team a draft pick.
Another option -if the team can find a taker for Yoshida is JD Martinez. He’s still crushes LHP and is once again a free agent.
If we are going for the older DH model, I think I would look at Goldschmidt before JD with the thought that he could switch off with Casas/give Triston a few days off and still have a legit thumper at 1B.
 

Max Power

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I want no part of Rafaela in the starting lineup. If they want to start the year with Anthony in AAA, then they need to acquire someone to play LF so Duran can be in CF and Abreu in RF. Gleyber does not fix that problem unless you think he or Grissom can play LF and hit well enough to carry the position.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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This comes close to encapsulating their organizational philosophy over the last 20 years. That's pretty much the approach that netted them David Ortiz. They will spend big in free agency as a last resort, or as a way to find the final missing piece, but otherwise they take the approach you note above. And I accept it. I fully accept it. I understand it to be the better, sober, more calculated approach, and the hallmark of the most successful ownership group in Red Sox history, and in all of MLB thus far in the 21st century. Your mileage clearly varies...
Well said. I'm always a bit bemused by complaints that the organization isn't competing/winning bids for top-tier free agents as if they've ever really done that. In the time of this ownership, the list of guys they've paid for at the very top of the market (the Soto/Burnes/Fried tier this winter) can be counted on one hand, and even then those were guys who weren't also drawing attention from the Yankees (like Soto and Fried did).

Where they've tended to live is in the second/third tier of the market and trades (and certainly the reclamation projects as well). The Story and Yoshida contracts now are the Drew and Matsuzaka contracts revisited. Grabbing up Napoli and Victorino and Dempster back in 2013 was on par with signing Mueller and Millar and Foulke. Beckett --> Sale --> Crochet. There are all kinds of parallels and throughlines that suggest they haven't changed all that dramatically at all.
 

bosox1534

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Cross-posting: I'm going to guess that this means the Yankees will sign Bregman, and move Chisolm back to 2B
Makes sense. Seems like a lot of Yankees fans wanted Durbin to be the 2B, so that would make sense why he was included.
 

Jimbodandy

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Well said. I'm always a bit bemused by complaints that the organization isn't competing/winning bids for top-tier free agents as if they've ever really done that. In the time of this ownership, the list of guys they've paid for at the very top of the market (the Soto/Burnes/Fried tier this winter) can be counted on one hand. Where they've tended to live is in the second/third tier of the market and trades (and certainly the reclamation projects as well). The Story and Yoshida contracts now are the Drew and Matsuzaka contracts revisited. Grabbing up Napoli and Victorino and Dempster back in 2013 was on par with signing Mueller and Millar and Foulke. Beckett --> Sale --> Crochet. There are all kinds of parallels and throughlines that suggest they haven't changed all that dramatically at all.
You're mixing metaphors here somewhat. Foulke was a top FA signing at the time, so were Drew and Matsuzaka. There's legit criticism that they overpaid for both Matsuzaka and Yoshida, but those 2 and Foulke were not bargain bin guys. Story was a tier below the available FAs, and some guys were definitely bargains at the time (Millar, Mueller) and reclamations like Papi. It's a mixed bag.

If your overall point is that there's more than one way to skin the cat, agreed.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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You're mixing metaphors here somewhat. Foulke was a top FA signing at the time, so were Drew and Matsuzaka. There's legit criticism that they overpaid for both Matsuzaka and Yoshida, but those 2 and Foulke were not bargain bin guys. Story was a tier below the available FAs, and some guys were definitely bargains at the time (Millar, Mueller) and reclamations like Papi. It's a mixed bag.

If your overall point is that there's more than one way to skin the cat, agreed.
To be clear, I wasn't arguing that any of them were bargain guys. I was more saying they weren't THE guy that absolutely had to be signed to "win" the off-season and whose contracts were establishing a new market level for everyone else. Even if the Drew and Foulke and Matsuzaka signings were closer to the top of the market than not (and no doubt the posting fee for DiceK was a big time flex), none of them made those guys the new highest paid players at their positions or anything. None of them were "they better get those guys or they have failed us" signings like some have categorized Soto and Fried.
 

Jimbodandy

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To be clear, I wasn't arguing that any of them were bargain guys. I was more saying they weren't THE guy that absolutely had to be signed to "win" the off-season and whose contracts were establishing a new market level for everyone else. Even if the Drew and Foulke and Matsuzaka signings were closer to the top of the market than not (and no doubt the posting fee for DiceK was a big time flex), none of them made those guys the new highest paid players at their positions or anything. None of them were "they better get those guys or they have failed us" signings like some have categorized Soto and Fried.
Agreed. The last time we signed a street FA of the magnitude of Soto was Manny. Can't even think of the last FA pitcher who was that dude.
 

normstalls

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Agreed. The last time we signed a street FA of the magnitude of Soto was Manny. Can't even think of the last FA pitcher who was that dude.
Wouldn't David Price fit that description?

edit - given inflation, it's a lot bigger than Fried's.
 

The_Dali

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I wonder if the Casas play was trading a guy who has turned down a below market deal (right?) they they didn’t think they could sign and flip him for young (cheap) pitching and then pick up Alonso for right-handed power.

Alonso isn’t Steve Garvey, but I believe he is very good at scooping and picking throws, which could help Devers.
 

Rasputin

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Agreed. The last time we signed a street FA of the magnitude of Soto was Manny. Can't even think of the last FA pitcher who was that dude.
Signing Manny was a hell of a day.

If I recall correctly, Will McDonough posted a three line article to the Globe site then got on a plane for hours. Good times.
 

kazuneko

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If we are going for the older DH model, I think I would look at Goldschmidt before JD with the thought that he could switch off with Casas/give Triston a few days off and still have a legit thumper at 1B.
Good idea. Had forgotten about Goldschmidt. Not much of a hitter against RHP anymore but still crushes lefties. If he’s willing to take a bench role he’d be pretty ideal. And yeah, still a pretty good fielder at 1b.