Yeah, seems to be in line with the Paxton and Fulmer moves. Makes sense on a cheap two-year deal.Would likely need to sit out most of 2025 after having his second Tommy John surgery in June.
Yeah, seems to be in line with the Paxton and Fulmer moves. Makes sense on a cheap two-year deal.Would likely need to sit out most of 2025 after having his second Tommy John surgery in June.
Would have to think Chris Holt would be the driving force behind any interest.
What is the 2025 payroll so far? This site says $144 million, more or less.
You've pretty much got this on point @Hank Scorpio - at least as far as money left goes relative to what Cots has following the Crochet trade. They show Boston's all in payroll (for tax purposes) to be at roughly $176.25m, which means they have roughly $64.75m left before hitting the first threshold.They've got ~$60-65M to play with under the first luxury tax threshold, after you factor in arbitration values for Whitlock, Crawford, Houck, Duran, etc...
There's probably room to add Burnes and (for instance) Bregman, but they might also want to go smaller on FA - make another trade or two, and try to extend some of Crochet, Houck, Abreu, Anthony, Campbell...
Something around Arenado - Yoshida makes a lot of sense, for the Sox at least, but I’m not sure what’s in it for the Cardinals, especially if their main goal is to shed payroll. Something like Arenado & Gray for Yoshida, Crawford, and Hamilton start to look reasonable? Not sure how it looks in BTV, and then there are the issues with Grays NTC and contract- imagine he’d want that 27 option picked up which makes him 3/90 and a lot less interesting.
Imagine Cards would want more prospect capital or someone like Duran and guess Arenado probably wants a more defined role than Sox could offer, though.
Regarding Arenado, for me at least, it all depends on the ability to move Yoshida, either in this deal or in a corresponding deal to make the pieces fit more easily (and have the dollar balance out better). If the Cards asked for Duran for Arenado, we'd know because we'd all be able to hear Breslow laughing at Chaim from our houses / offices / wherever.Someone please try to talk me into Arenado.... He will be 34 this season...3 years left at around 90 million...he has declined considerably... and fans want to give them players like Abreu, Yoshida, etc.
Yeah, obviously that is the concern, but a home OPS of .651 vs .671 on the road means Gilbert has been nails on the road, even without the bad batters' eye. The K/bb ratio is the only notable one.Or it could be something specific about T-Mobile Park in Seattle (Like the rumored Batter's backdrop) that has all of these guys having better numbers there than on the road. Not sure what that is but I would trust Breslow and Bailey should know beforehand.
And that's with less than ideal health/continuityYoshida is perfectly fine. 1.4 bWAR, 112 ops+
Obviously not an all-star or anything like that, but he's better than "not very good".
Semantics I suppose, what counts as “not very good”?Yoshida is perfectly fine. 1.4 bWAR, 112 ops+
Obviously not an all-star or anything like that, but he's better than "not very good".
I keep thinking the best place to send him is Sacramento. The A's need to get their payroll over $100m, so they might be interested. He'd have to play the outfield there, but it's worth a shot for a lottery ticket or twoHe’s clearly not worth his contract and we either would have to pay someone to take him or take back another bad underwater contract in return.
These calculations are off by a factor of Devers.Yoshida doesn't stink. He's a good hitter on a bad contract that is a horrible fit for the Boston Red Sox specifically because of the roughly 900 other players in the organization Boston has that can only hit RHP and because 800 of those 900 players are better defenders at their position than Yoshida is.
Kind of like Arenado doesn't stink. He's an average hitter and an excellent defender on a bad contract that would be a better fit for the Boston Red Sox than Yoshida, as that would allow if nothing else an additional "bWAR" added for about $2.5m and possibly more if we assume that Devers would be healthier not having to field a position and thus be available more and healthier more for that.
Using FanGraphs and simply looking at the last two years (Arenado's decline and Yoshida's time in MLB):
2023 - Yoshida was paid $19m, produced $4.9m ( -$15m); factoring in all the money Col has agreed to paid, Arenado was paid $21m and provided $21.7m (+$.75m)
2024 - Yoshida was paid $19m, produced $6.4m (-$12.5m); Arenado was paid $30m; produced $25m (-$5m).
Even if we doubled Yoshida's average value, he'd still be roughly paid $19m to produce $11m (-$8m). Arenado, with the salary changes I mentioned in an earlier post, even if we assume he loses 20% of his value from the last two years on average, would be paid roughly $21m for $19m of production (-$2m).
In summation - if for some reason someone wanted to say "Yoshida will be 2x as valuable and Arenado will be 20% less valuable" (and we just locked that in) you'd still get about $6m more in production from Arenado, and a better fitting roster. That is the reason to trade for Arenado - if you can swap Yoshida. It's also pretty much the ONLY reason to trade for Arenado.
The 800 and 900 thing was clearly a joke.These calculations are off by a factor of Devers.
I mean you're trying to compare value of swapping our current DH with a new 3B without subtracting the value of our current 3B.The 800 and 900 thing was clearly a joke.
Genuinely curious - how so regarding the value from Fangraphs and the contracts in question? I've linked the pages where I got the information from about "value" and salary. I could be certainly off and you could very well be right, and if that is the case, I'm sincerely asking what I'm missing so as not to make the same mistake if I've made one...
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/masataka-yoshida/31837/stats?position=DH/OF
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/nolan-arenado/9777/stats?position=3B
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/arenano01.shtml
Couldn't dumping him lead to problems in acquiring another Japanese player in free agency or directly from Japan?I want Yoshida off this team because I don't think he adds anything to what they already have...
We don't. Breslow and Cora have shot it down publicly any chance they've had.Real question -- do we have any indication at all that the Sox are willing to consider Devers at 1B or DH?
If the former, you'd have thought they would try him out there during Casas's lengthy injury rehab last year instead of playing Dom Smith. If not, all the trade Casas/sign Arenado or Bregman talk seems to be a moot point.
Great breakdown here of the situation. I had forgotten about the 10 million from Colorado -It's lurking in the background. To answer my original statement - I think this makes more sense now with the follow up moves. In this scenario, do you see Anthony in LF to replace Yoshida/Oneil or still pursing another RH bat for the outfield?You've pretty much got this on point @Hank Scorpio - at least as far as money left goes relative to what Cots has following the Crochet trade. They show Boston's all in payroll (for tax purposes) to be at roughly $176.25m, which means they have roughly $64.75m left before hitting the first threshold.
Regarding Arenado, for me at least, it all depends on the ability to move Yoshida, either in this deal or in a corresponding deal to make the pieces fit more easily (and have the dollar balance out better). If the Cards asked for Duran for Arenado, we'd know because we'd all be able to hear Breslow laughing at Chaim from our houses / offices / wherever.
One thing we know about Bloom - for better or worse - is that he likes the idea of buying someone else prospects by moving a decent player for a dumb contract (Hunter Renfroe for JBJ, Hamilton and Bineals, and for some reason Bloom agreed to take on all of JBJr salary implications). I could see StL doing something like an Arenado to Boston, Yoshida, Blaze Jordan and Zanetello to StL as the salaries are somewhat similar on remaining AAV after the Arenado option kicked in (and factoring in the money Colorado is paying Arenado).
Arenado and Yoshida are both "good players" on "bad contracts" but their value is arrived at differently. Yoshida's is from being a better offensive player right now; Arenado's from being an average offensive player and above average defensive player.
I think that a scenario of Devers at DH, Arenado at 3b and Casas at 1b is a better roster configuration and therefore use of ~$20m than Devers at 3b, Casas at 1b, Yoshida at DH. That is how, I at least, think Arenado makes sense, and I prefer using the $19m on someone that is going to be a roughly 2.5 bWAR player that can really help the infield defense and have Raffy focus on just hitting than someone that is going to be a roughly 1.5bWAR player limited to the DH role.
*As to Arenado's deal, he DOES NOT have 3/$90m/$30m AAV left. There was an option tacked on to his deal at the end. He has 3/$74m/$24.6m left, of which $5m in years one and two is paid by Colorado, so he is really a 3/$64m/$21.3m player. Roughly the same as Yoshida's (about a $2.5m difference per year). There is no chance I want Arenado unless Yoshida is moved as part of the deal. But if I'm allowed (forced to) choose one of these to be on the Red Sox the next 3 seasons, I'd prefer it to be Arenado at $21.3m than Yoshida at $19m.
As to the Castillo / Flaherty / Buehler question, I think they're all pretty close overall. I think Castillo would be my pick IF you could get rid of Yoshida in the deal for him (notice the same "pre-requisite" in all my ideas for older players on high money deals is that they take back our "good player / horrible fit / bad contract" player as well. (But if you could swap Yoshida for Arenado, in essence, I'd choose Flaherty over Castillo - hope that makes sense).
As many have noted, Castillo has a NTC, but he also has team option at the end of his deal. Best guess is the acquiring team would have to pick that up in order to get him to waive his NTC. This is something pretty common in contact / trade negotiations as a way to work around said NTC.
There is no way Breslow is trading anything of significant value for Castillo straight up (so don't worry about Casas or Abreu on their own). I could see him agreeing to Abreu and Yoshida for Castillo, for instance, if the bidding on Flaherty gets higher than Henry is willing to go.
It's absolutely about T-Mobile Park. It is the #1 Pitchers park in all of MLB.Or it could be something specific about T-Mobile Park in Seattle (Like the rumored Batter's backdrop) that has all of these guys having better numbers there than on the road. Not sure what that is but I would trust Breslow and Bailey should know beforehand.
EVERYTHING HAS A price, as the old saying goes, and nobody knows that better than a billionaire -- or Scott Boras. Sometimes baseball's owners will ask Boras for a takedown price on his clients -- the ceiling bid at which the offer will land a player. During the monthlong negotiations for the slugger, Boston Red Sox owners John Henry and Tom Werner inquired about what that number might be.
Boras explained to the Red Sox owners that in the case of Soto, with his strike zone mastery and his unique ability to lift teammates with his indomitable confidence, there was no such takedown price. The final number would go as far as the bidding billionaires pushed it, and through weeks of meetings and negotiations, the owners kept piling more money into their proposals, fully inspired, wholly invested.
Bring Pedroia back as a coach?How are the Sox going to win without someone who has the ability to lift teammates with their indomitable confidence?!?!
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPvMOVFshyIBring Pedroia back as a coach?
This has nothing to do with Arenado, but:I don't think the Trevor Story comparison is a great sales pitch. As for Yoshida, he's had a better OPS than Arenado each of the last two years. Arenado's offensive trend line makes the idea of trading for his age 34, 35, and 36 seasons pretty scary.
Agreed, and fingers crossed that he can play in 140+ games. That's a stretch considering the last three seasons, but here's hoping. I'm also less than enthusiastic about adding Arenado/Bregman/Similar older, expensive infielder, in that flexibility over the next three years in the infield/DH will be key as the Sox try to find spots for Devers, Story, Grissom, Mayer, Campbell, (and Yoshida) into those 4 spots. The particular plan and timeline will come into focus over the spring/summer.This has nothing to do with Arenado, but:
If we didn’t have Trevor Story, we’d be looking for someone like him: short commitment to a plus-glove RHH SS with pop.
He was likely too tired from chasing after all the balls he misplayed in right field.He didn't think to sprinkle a little of that confidence on Judge in the playoffs?
Yes, sorry. I've mentioned this in prior posts (likely in this thread) as it's no secret I'd like to trade Yoshida. However:I mean you're trying to compare value of swapping our current DH with a new 3B without subtracting the value of our current 3B.
I don't see why it would, baseball is a business and players should understand that. Does dumping an American player make it more difficult to sign other American players? Or insert any demographic into the equation. The players should understand the business side of the equation. Theoretically, sure it could effect the decisions of any other player to sign on (Japanese or not), but dumping the contracts of players will never go away.Couldn't dumping him lead to problems in acquiring another Japanese player in free agency or directly from Japan?
He's not really a liability defensively, although he is still just 26 and will likely become more of one. He does have bad misplays sometimes (as shown in that montage) but also he is very aggressive going after balls and keeps runners from trying for an extra base surprisingly frequently. His DRS this year was 0, precisely average.If you have not seen the montage of misplays that disgruntled Yankee fans are sharing, it's an eye-opener.
Avoiding Yankee games as much as possible, I had not realized he was such a liability out there.
I am glad we have money to spend (or possibly not spend) elsewhere.
What else gets sent out through the toilet?Yankees apparently trying to trade for Kyle Tucker - but not trying hard enough. Offering "crap".
In his recent interview with Bradford, Cora said Devers would be the first to know if such a switch were in the offing. Neither Cora nor Breslow is going to tell us whether there have been private conversations in the FO to that effect.We don't. Breslow and Cora have shot it down publicly any chance they've had.
I beg people to stop linking Randy Miller, talk about crap. He is the one who just had NYY out on Soto a few hundred million before they actually were.Yankees apparently trying to trade for Kyle Tucker - but not trying hard enough. Offering "crap".
View: https://www.twitter.com/RandyJMiller/status/1867255933484568739
Intetesting, thank you for this. Seems to suggest that teams won’t waste their time with older SP if they’re not delivering but if you’re there, you’re clearly the exception and not the rule.Given all the talk about pitchers in their 30s, I did a little Baseball Reference research today.
This past season there were all of 9 pitchers over the age of 35 who made 20+ starts. 6 of those 9 had a roughly league average or better performance though, using ERA+ as the benchmark.
What was fascinating is that I looked back 20 years, to the 2004 season, and found that only 13 pitchers over the age of 35 made 20+ starts. Most that did were league average or better.
It’s notable that, at least in this blunt and crude analysis, not much has changed over time. Precious few starters are reliable past the age of 35, but those who are tend to be at least average.
That's a surprisingly small number. Of course, above a certain age *only* good pitchers are still at it. If you suck at 24, you get another chance somewhere. Not so much if you suck at 34. Regardless of the cause and effect, there just aren't a lot of them.Given all the talk about pitchers in their 30s, I did a little Baseball Reference research today.
This past season there were all of 9 pitchers over the age of 35 who made 20+ starts. 6 of those 9 had a roughly league average or better performance though, using ERA+ as the benchmark.
What was fascinating is that I looked back 20 years, to the 2004 season, and found that only 13 pitchers over the age of 35 made 20+ starts. Most that did were league average or better.
It’s notable that, at least in this blunt and crude analysis, not much has changed over time. Precious few starters are reliable past the age of 35, but those who are tend to be at least average.
Are the Sox even allowed to start the season if they don't sign a guy who is physically incapable of playing?Rumblings about adding Means... I like the low cost high reward guys on the right deal...adding Means and having Fulmer are good projects to have on the backburner come August.
It's their version of the UDFA on the PatriotsAre the Sox even allowed to start the season if they don't sign a guy who is physically incapable of playing?
It does quiet some of the leather lungs demanding that "the other guy" play more, when the other guy can't play. Breslow went to Yale, dontchaknow.Are the Sox even allowed to start the season if they don't sign a guy who is physically incapable of playing?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5967098/2024/12/04/scouting-japan-korea-mlb-roki-sasaki/I don't see why it would, baseball is a business and players should understand that. Does dumping an American player make it more difficult to sign other American players? Or insert any demographic into the equation. The players should understand the business side of the equation. Theoretically, sure it could effect the decisions of any other player to sign on (Japanese or not), but dumping the contracts of players will never go away.