Much like Newman, the Sox are not “Ready to deliver”– The 2025 Offseason News (& rumors?) Thread

[SoxFanInPdx]

@LouMerloni
Keep your (eyes) on Pitt. Jones or Bubba

View: https://twitter.com/LouMerloni/status/1866320841887142042?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1866320841887142042%7Ctwgr%5Efb6ebc4a19aef15778b670f98f41c6f85ca5e5ce%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fforum.soxprospects.com%2Fthread%2F7673%2Fpredicting-2025-opening-day-roster%3Fpage%3D80

Watched Jones a handful of times last season on the MLB EI package on accident. Initially, I was just wanting to see Skenes, but Jones looked great early on in the season and has nasty stuff. If memory serves me right, he injured his lat midway through the season, came back late in the season and it didn't look like he had fully recovered.

I'd have to imagine the prospect cost would be more than Crochet, but I'd certainly prefer Jones more. I'm just not quite sold on Crochet in general yet. Not a ton of starts, but was good last year and I'm intrigued on how he'll be moving forward. His arm angle and explosive delivery gives me pause most of all.

All pitchers are a risk as we all know, but this club needs to obtain it. I'd rather they spent on it and I really hope they push hard for Fried in particular. As for the guys on the farm, Anthony/Campbell/Teel are untouchable unless someone like Skubal were to become available (next to impossible, but one can dream, right).

Edit: Spelling

 

[DeadlySplitter]

While one of PIT's starters would be a great get, it's starting to feel like that's in lieu of a TOR FA starter instead of in addition to one.

If so, is that because they have red flags on Burnes & Fried? Or is the budget still tight after all?

 

[Tokyo Sox]

While one of PIT's starters would be a great get, it's starting to feel like that's in lieu of a TOR FA starter instead of in addition to one.

If so, is that because they have red flags on Burnes & Fried? Or is the budget still tight after all?

Why does it feel like that? We haven't heard of anything heating up on the Burnes/Fried markets right? I'm not sure if it means anything one way or another, but if it does I'd say it sounds more like moving on from Crochet rather than giving up on the FAs.

btw TOR = "top of rotation" in this usage? Second time I've seen that and wasn't sure.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

btw TOR = "top of rotation" in this usage? Second time I've seen that and wasn't sure.

Yes.

Just a gut feeling re: FAs - we'll see but it's hard to trust ownership right now. I saw Sean McAdam had doubts they'll competitively bid with Yankees/Mets for Fried/Burnes, and makes me wonder if ownership is still imposing a 225M limit and Soto was just an exception.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Yes.

Just a gut feeling re: FAs - we'll see but it's hard to trust ownership right now. I saw Sean McAdam had doubts they'll competitively bid with Yankees/Mets for Fried/Burnes, and makes me wonder if ownership is still imposing a 225M limit and Soto was just an exception.

Or, if all the rumors are to be believed, perhaps they're simply casting a wide net to see what possibilities exist. Talking to Pittsburgh about the likes of Jones and Chandler doesn't preclude them from going full bore to try to sign Fried or Burnes or from pursuing Crochet or from talking to Seattle about Woo/Gilbert/Kirby or who knows what else. It is possible to walk and chew gum at the same time.

 

[loneredseat]

@LouMerloni
Keep your (eyes) on Pitt. Jones or Bubba

View: https://twitter.com/LouMerloni/status/1866320841887142042?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1866320841887142042%7Ctwgr%5Efb6ebc4a19aef15778b670f98f41c6f85ca5e5ce%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fforum.soxprospects.com%2Fthread%2F7673%2Fpredicting-2025-opening-day-roster%3Fpage%3D80

Please baby please baby PLEEEAAASE!
I'd love to get our hands on Jones or Chandler. Especially Jones, But I'd take either of these guys over Crochet. More years of control, and Crohet's delivery scares me. If the Sox did nothing but pick up Jones and add another solid bullpen arm (or two) I'd be happy with the off season.
And count me out on Bregman. The money (and draft pick) could be better spent elsewhere.
I'm a little worried about Fried. His price got to 200 million pretty fast, and it seems like it's been quiet since this report. Anyone heard anything since?

 

[NJ_Sox_Fan]

Jared Jones would be great - but - certainly they’d expect one of the big 4 at least.

Hopefully there will be some action today. I was told once Soto signed it would start a frenzy.

 

[Rasputin]

Jared Jones would be great - but - certainly they’d expect one of the big 4 at least.

Hopefully there will be some action today. I was told once Soto signed it would start a frenzy.

I think the frenzy starts today and I'd be pretty okay sending Mayer off for a really good pitcher and trying to integrate the other three guys over the course of the season.

 

[mikeford]

Can Campbell play SS? If memory serves me he was playing there in Worcester at the end of last year because of Mayer being out but I have no idea how he actually was in the field.

We have Story, obviously, but how much longer can we expect him to stick at SS? And that's even before we take his injury record in Boston into account.

 

[YTF]

In addition to the log jam, worth noting that the Sox had the 5th best OPS against lefties last year in the AL. They weren't great but a huge part of that was the black hole at second base (.532 OPS overall, worst in MLB). If Grissom, or Campbell, can step into the void at 2B, a full year of Casas, more of Story*, and the continued use of Refsnyder (.941 OPS against lefties), Wong (.877 OPS), Romy (.879), they should be fine.

Signing older, expensive, players on the downside of their career (Alonso, Bregman, Hernandez, etc), and blocking the young players coming up, would be a massive self-inflicted wound.

Who would Alonso be blocking?

 

[moondog80]

Can Campbell play SS? If memory serves me he was playing there in Worcester at the end of last year because of Mayer being out but I have no idea how he actually was in the field.

We have Story, obviously, but how much longer can we expect him to stick at SS? And that's even before we take his injury record in Boston into account.

Yeah, there isn't really a SS in the pipeline if you trade Mayer; Arias is a nice prospect but he's 19 and will start 2025 in low A ball. I don't buy Campbell (or Meidroth) as a real solution.

 

[simplicio]

Can Campbell play SS? If memory serves me he was playing there in Worcester at the end of last year because of Mayer being out but I have no idea how he actually was in the field.

Reporting from the end of the year was that his metrics were strong there, though scouts were split.

 

[Sille Skrub]

Just a gut feeling re: FAs - we'll see but it's hard to trust ownership right now. I saw Sean McAdam had doubts they'll competitively bid with Yankees/Mets for Fried/Burnes, and makes me wonder if ownership is still imposing a 225M limit and Soto was just an exception.

Or, knowing full well Cohen would outbid everyone, bid just enough to be mentioned in the scuttlebutt.

I certainly wouldn’t be shocked if McAdam was spot on here and I actually believe he is. It would be business as usual for FSG. And relax homers, I’ll happily and joyfully admit I was wrong if they sign Fried *or* Burnes.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Can Campbell play SS? If memory serves me he was playing there in Worcester at the end of last year because of Mayer being out but I have no idea how he actually was in the field.

We have Story, obviously, but how much longer can we expect him to stick at SS? And that's even before we take his injury record in Boston into account.

Why is there concern for Story's longevity at SS beyond his injury concerns? He essentially took a year and a half away from the position (his year at 2B and then the elbow surgery) and when he returned, he was otherworldly and looked very good when not breaking his shoulder this season. As long as he's healthy, I think he's the SS until someone pushes him off the spot (we're all presuming that will be Mayer). I don't expect him to lose himself the job so long as he's physically able to take the field, at least for the foreseeable future...i.e. the length of his contract.

 

[bosockboy]

Yeah, there isn't really a SS in the pipeline if you trade Mayer; Arias is a nice prospect but he's 19 and will start 2025 in low A ball. I don't buy Campbell (or Meidroth) as a real solution.

Rafaela could take it over full time possibly.

 

[Rasputin]

Can Campbell play SS? If memory serves me he was playing there in Worcester at the end of last year because of Mayer being out but I have no idea how he actually was in the field.

We have Story, obviously, but how much longer can we expect him to stick at SS? And that's even before we take his injury record in Boston into account.

Soxprospects says this, which suggests to me that he'll be fine with some more innings.

Field: Versatile defender who has played second base, third base, shortstop and center field. Looks most comfortable at second base, where he played in college. At short and third, shows solid athleticism and range, but is a little unorthodox with his movements. In the outfield, he Is still learning the nuances of the position, especially with his reads and routes, but has the raw athleticism and speed you look for out there and to cover up for most errors. Potential average defensive profile with the versatility to adequately play at least three positions.

 

[moondog80]

Rafaela could take it over full time possibly.

True. Hadn't thought of that.

 

[Yo La Tengo]

Who would Alonso be blocking?

He's going to sign... a 6+ year contract? So 1B or DH will be full during that timeframe, while the Sox are trying to get Campbell, Mayer, and Grissom into the infield. I anticipate that in 2 or so years, Devers is going to move to DH with Casas staying at first. That can't happen with Alonso on the team, which would mean lesser defense and blocked young players for the majority of a deal for Alonso at the same time that his performance will likely take a nosedive.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

He's going to sign... a 6+ year contract? So 1B or DH will be full during that timeframe, while the Sox are trying to get Campbell, Mayer, and Grissom into the infield. I anticipate that in 2 or so years, Devers is going to move to DH with Casas staying at first. That can't happen with Alonso on the team, which would mean lesser defense and blocked young players for the majority of a deal for Alonso at the same time that his performance will likely take a nosedive.

That said, if people want to have a serious discussion about what it would take to get Pitt to listen serious on Jared Jones (which I'd be shocked if they can pull off because I really doubt he's on the block, with all respect to Lou), Triston Casas is almost certainly going to PItt, because Mayer and Abreu alone (as in you'd need a really nice other third piece too) isn't getting it done for Jones. Casas and Abreu or Casas and Mayer just might, though. Maybe. At least they wouldn't hang up the phone call to continue laughing for half an hour.

Mayer might get you most of the way for Chandler (they're roughly equal in terms of prospect status among the major sites), but pitching costs more than hitting, especially those coming off injury, so you're probably adding something decent along with Mayer to get Chandler.

 

[buttons]

He's going to sign... a 6+ year contract? So 1B or DH will be full during that timeframe, while the Sox are trying to get Campbell, Mayer, and Grissom into the infield. I anticipate that in 2 or so years, Devers is going to move to DH with Casas staying at first. That can't happen with Alonso on the team, which would mean lesser defense and blocked young players for the majority of a deal for Alonso at the same time that his performance will likely take a nosedive.

If the Red Sox are serious about being competitive they need to bite the bullet and
latch on to a top of the rotation pitcher and a right handed bat.
They can accomplish that by making serious offers to the free agents out there.
It seems to me that going the trade route should be plan c

 

[Yo La Tengo]

If the Red Sox are serious about being competitive they need to bite the bullet and
latch on to a top of the rotation pitcher and a right handed bat.
They can accomplish that by making serious offers to the free agents out there.
It seems to me that going the trade route should be plan c

"need to bite the bullet and latch on to a top of the rotation pitcher" FULL AGREEMENT!
" and a right handed bat" Not necessary, as I've previously posted, the Sox will be fine against lefties this year (they were above average last year) and their young players will likely outproduce the FA position players starting in 2026 (and quite possibly by the end of 2025).

The Sox blew 31 saves last year. Get a top starter, add maybe a second starter, and keep adding to the bullpen.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I really don't like signing Bregman.... but if they do... absolutely 100% NOT for 2B. Why would he be a better defender there than Campbell or Grissom. They only way he's coming is if he's the DH/3B/1B combo player the Sox could really use. Obviously a 7 year contract would blow. And there's of course issues with telling Devers he'd be mostly a DH. Yoshida would of course have to be moved also but I could at least see a team like Seattle just taking his full contract and not offering much in return which would be fine.
But 2B for Bregman? He's a good defender... at 3B. He doesn't strike me as someone who can make the double play catch, pivot and jump throws anymore. Or ever, really, at any highly skilled level.
IMO they REALLY just need to sign Fried. That in itself (and yes, with health) should take them up to 85 wins and a possible playoff spot. Adding Bregman would help honestly... it's just the length of contract for him I don't like.... but I can definitely see 3 more good years with him with way better defense than Devers and a 25HR .800+ OPS seasons.

 

[Over Guapo Grande]

Why is everyone penning in Campbell/Anthony into the starting lineups? They have combined to play about 55 games at the AAA level (19 and 35 respectively).

Don't get me wrong, I like shiny new toys, too. But, I remember asking for a Corvette for Christmas once, and getting a pickup truck hot-wheels instead.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

I really don't like signing Bregman.... but if they do... absolutely 100% NOT for 2B. Why would he be a better defender there than Campbell or Grissom. They only way he's coming is if he's the DH/3B/1B combo player the Sox could really use. Obviously a 7 year contract would blow. And there's of course issues with telling Devers he'd be mostly a DH. Yoshida would of course have to be moved also but I could at least see a team like Seattle just taking his full contract and not offering much in return which would be fine.
But 2B for Bregman? He's a good defender... at 3B. He doesn't strike me as someone who can make the double play catch, pivot and jump throws anymore. Or ever, really, at any highly skilled level.
IMO they REALLY just need to sign Fried. That in itself (and yes, with health) should take them up to 85 wins and a possible playoff spot. Adding Bregman would help honestly... it's just the length of contract for him I don't like.... but I can definitely see 3 more good years with him with way better defense than Devers and a 25HR .800+ OPS seasons.

Seriously doubt Seattle (or anyone) would take anything close to Yoshida's full deal. If the reports that the Red Sox basically doubled everyone else offer have any credibility (and lets say they're exaggerated and everyone else offered 75% of what the Red Sox offered), with Yoshida coming off two seasons with injuries and now having at least data (and the eye test) that he can't even managed a competent LF at Fenway Park, you're not getting anyone to take his whole contract. Keep in mind, I desperately want him moved and think the Sox should eat whatever portion of the contract is necessary to do that, but Boston is still going to have to pay at minimum 1/4 to 1/3 of his remaining salary to get any interest whatsoever.

I'm certainly not at all against signing Bregman and Fried (as it's what I've advocated they do from jump) but I truly don't think Fried is happening. It's just not their MO.

Could I MAYBE see something where they sign Bregman if they can get anyone to take call it 40% of Yoshida's deal, and then signing Eovaldi (an upper middle class man's version of Fried), I guess. But I think they'd have to get out from under Yoshida's deal to actually pay the money that it will cost to land Bregman. I agree, they'd play him at 3b though and the 2b is just because you wouldn't move Devers (or talk about moving Devers) until you have the vastly superior defensive option on the roster.

 

[Yo La Tengo]

If the concern is defense, simply having Rafaela play CF, with Duran in LF, would arguably improve the defense more, based on last year's Fielding Bible DRS numbers, than signing Teoscar Hernandez to play LF and Bregman to 3B with Devers as DH. Due to Bregman and Teoscar's ages, that gap will grow, starting this next year and widening over the length of those contracts.

It has got to be pitching, pitching, pitching. Why sign expensive free agent position players who are entering their decline and cost a draft pick? I think that makes sense for NYY because they are in full playoff mode and have to go for it now with their core 4 all being old and getting older. But it makes no sense for the Red Sox who have their competitive window just starting to open.

 

[cantor44]

Why is everyone penning in Campbell/Anthony into the starting lineups? They have combined to play about 55 games at the AAA level (19 and 35 respectively).

Don't get me wrong, I like shiny new toys, too. But, I remember asking for a Corvette for Christmas once, and getting a pickup truck hot-wheels instead.

Yes, it would be prudent to consider history in these matters. The organization might want them in Worcester for a while longer, and maybe they wind up not being able to handle the bigs, or not just yet. Though Campbell was named Minor league player of the Year (in all the minors), and Anthony is now ranked the #1 prospect in baseball. They are arguably the two best players in the minors. They dominated last year at their various stops, including AAA. These are the best prospects they Sox have had knocking on the door since the Bogaerts/Betts, and it's a pretty safe bet both guys will be quality major leaguers.

 

[chawson]

If the concern is defense, simply having Rafaela play CF, with Duran in LF, would arguably improve the defense more, based on last year's Fielding Bible DRS numbers, than signing Teoscar Hernandez to play LF and Bregman to 3B with Devers as DH. Due to Bregman and Teoscar's ages, that gap will grow, starting this next year and widening over the length of those contracts.

It has got to be pitching, pitching, pitching. Why sign expensive free agent position players who are entering their decline and cost a draft pick? I think that makes sense for NYY because they are in full playoff mode and have to go for it now with their core 4 all being old and getting older. But it makes no sense for the Red Sox who have their competitive window just starting to open.

The outfield defense does not seem a concern. It was tops in MLB last year at +48 DRS (tied with Toronto).

Here's the infield:

1B: 18th (-2 defensive runs saved)
2B: 10th (+2)
3B: 23rd (-8)
SS: 24th (-7)

 

[Over Guapo Grande]

Yes, it would be prudent to consider history in these matters. The organization might want them in Worcester for a while longer, and maybe they wind up not being able to handle the bigs, or not just yet. Though Campbell was named Minor league player of the Year (in all the minors), and Anthony is now ranked the #1 prospect in baseball. They are arguably the two best players in the minors. They dominated last year at their various stops, including AAA. These are the best prospects they Sox have had knocking on the door since the Bogaerts/Betts, and it's a pretty safe bet both guys will be quality major leaguers.

I would love to have them in the opening day lineup, don't get me wrong. But there is a real possibility that they go 121/230/366 during spring training, which would raise some flags. I don't think you want to go into the year counting on two great players (who tore up AAA while they were 4 and 6 years younger than the average age) who have never had a MLB at bat to step into starting roles.

 

[Fishy1]

Why is everyone penning in Campbell/Anthony into the starting lineups? They have combined to play about 55 games at the AAA level (19 and 35 respectively).

Don't get me wrong, I like shiny new toys, too. But, I remember asking for a Corvette for Christmas once, and getting a pickup truck hot-wheels instead.

So what? Mookie only played 45 games there. Devers only had 38 PA in AAA. When he graduated he was the 22nd overall prospect in baseball, and Campbell has blown his minor league performance out of the water. What Campbell has done in the minors is, well, Jesus, for God's sake, look at this list. I've posted it before but it's like people can't get it through their heads.

Only bettered by Soto, Schwarber, and Kris Bryant. Right in line with Brandon Belt. Look at the starts those guys got off to in the major leagues. (Ignore "Kelvin Diaz", he hasn't made it out of the rookie ball yet). Wieters and Alex Gordon are the only "busts" in the first fifteen on that list, and they still had really impressive careers.

There's no reason to keep Campbell's bat out of the lineup if we want to be competitive. Everything points to him being a difference maker on offense like, immediately. I could see Anthony struggling a little, he's a slow starter. But I think he could probably match O'Neill's overall production because he'll be a better defender, even if the bat is slow to wake up.

 

[Fishy1]

I would love to have them in the opening day lineup, don't get me wrong. But there is a real possibility that they go 121/230/366 during spring training, which would raise some flags.

I mean, that could happen with anybody. But almost universally guys who hit like Campbell has hit in the minors get off to roaring starts in the big leagues. He is as sure a bet as there is with a minor league player. Almost everyone who hit like he has in the minors not only hit the ground running, they were immediately better than pretty much everybody but Devers on last year's team.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

If the concern is defense, simply having Rafaela play CF, with Duran in LF, would arguably improve the defense more, based on last year's Fielding Bible DRS numbers, than signing Teoscar Hernandez to play LF and Bregman to 3B with Devers as DH. Due to Bregman and Teoscar's ages, that gap will grow, starting this next year and widening over the length of those contracts.

It has got to be pitching, pitching, pitching. Why sign expensive free agent position players who are entering their decline and cost a draft pick? I think that makes sense for NYY because they are in full playoff mode and have to go for it now with their core 4 all being old and getting older. But it makes no sense for the Red Sox who have their competitive window just starting to open.

Because there are some of us that don't think there is any chance they're going to sign said pitching, pitching and pitching (which I agree they need and should do, but I don't think will do) are desperately looking for ways to improve the team and not give up on the idea of contending for something besides WC3 before the official start of winter.

So if you don't think there is any chance of them actually signing Fried or Burnes (I don't) and if you don't think they're going to give up the pieces necessary to land Crochet or Jared Jones (I don't) then you're left with "how do we make what we already have better and what would make sense with what we MIGHT actually get in free agency."

Since I think that the ceiling on FA pitching acquisitions is Eovaldi or Flaherty, if it's Eovaldi (that is a ground ball machine, not quite like Fried but was 8th in the game last year) then you'd probably want to have a better defensive alignment behind him than Casas, Campbell/Grissom, Story and Devers and the easiest path on the FA market is either Bregman (which I don't think will happen) or Kim (which I think there is at least a chance of) and drastically upgrading your defense at 3b, while also massively upgrading your DH from Yoshida to a hopefully healthy - because he doesn't have to play the field - Devers.

I genuinely don't think I've seen one person on here say that they don't want someone like Fried or Burnes, and more. We all want that and we all think they need that (or at least the vast majority of us do because there are probably a handful posters who actually think the rotation is good enough) but I, for one, assume that isn't happening.

Sure you could say "just play the kids" and I get that people might want that. I would too over more one year duct tape and chewing gum. But as opposed to guys that have a track record of being really good MLB players that fit needs (or at least positions and areas that certainly could be upgraded), not as much.

Also, I think even with a line up of Bregman (3b) and Devers (DH) with the injury history we have from Casas and Story, along with a question mark at 2b (I like Grissom, but he is a question mark) and ostensibly no LF, there would still be plenty of at bats for Anthony and Campbell. Not to mention the fact that I think it's at least possible one of the prospects is more Jared Kelenic or Jurickson Profar and less Julio Rodriguez or Gunnar Henderson.

 

[Yo La Tengo]

The outfield defense does not seem a concern. It was tops in MLB last year at +48 DRS (tied with Toronto).

Here's the infield:

1B: 18th (-2 defensive runs saved)
2B: 10th (+2)
3B: 23rd (-8)
SS: 24th (-7)

All outs count. The Sox OF defense was really good last year but could be even better this year. I expect minor improvement from Casas, minor improvement at 2B, significant improvement at SS for however long Story is in the lineup at SS, and something between -9 and -6 for Devers at 3B. I'd like to have the Sox give Rafaela some regular time in CF, with the plan to bump him if he is not hitting and Anthony or Campbell is ready later in the season.

As previously laid out, the offensive improvement from Yoshida to Bregman is surprisingly minimal. If the goal is to improve the team, I don't see Bregman (or Alonso or Teoscar) as the answer next year, and he'll go downhill from there over what looks to be a very long and very expensive contract (plus the second round draft pick).

 

[Cassvt2023]

Ya know what I would find fun to watch?: The crazily athletic, skies-the-limit Kristian Campbell, rather than that cocky past-his-prime douche Bregman.

Amen. +1 to this. Kristian Campbell could be very special. Loved hearing that he is one of the prospects deemed untouchable.

 

[joe dokes]

What does Bregman add to the team?

1. A massive improvement in terms of hitting over what they presently have at 2b.
2. A really good glove. Dude can field.
3. Championship experience. Guy is a winner.
4. Leadership. By most/all accounts, he's a terrific leader. "Bregman’s wealth of postseason experience, renowned work ethic and reputation as a clubhouse leader are some of the headlining features of his case as one of this winter’s premier free agents."

So other than a terrific bat, a good glove, experience, and leadership, he doesn't really offer much to the Red Sox.

I was not originally thrilled with it when the talk was for 3B, but I could get behind a Bregman signing for 2B because he likely makes the team significantly better immediately at one of the few positions where they really were subpar. Yes, it may require other shuffling of players who have yet to prove themselves as major leaguers, but, IMO, it's better than the Strat-o-matic approach of getting a third baseman in decline like Arenado, moving Devers to a position he's never played, and trading Casas. (Admittedly, there's almost no trade that involves Casas that I would like. I think he's a great player and the likely face of the franchise's next really good team.)[/QUOTE]

 

[Bread of Yaz]

I mean, that could happen with anybody. But almost universally guys who hit like Campbell has hit in the minors get off to roaring starts in the big leagues.

Jackson Holliday is a recent data point to the contrary. The major leagues are hard

 

[joe dokes]

Yes.

Just a gut feeling re: FAs - we'll see but it's hard to trust ownership right now. I saw Sean McAdam had doubts they'll competitively bid with Yankees/Mets for Fried/Burnes, and makes me wonder if ownership is still imposing a 225M limit and Soto was just an exception.

Or the "limit" isn't precisely money, it's pitchers over 30 to long-term FA deals

 

[simplicio]

Jackson Holliday is a recent data point to the contrary. The major leagues are hard

He is (and they are), but when you filter for the types of performances Campbell/Anthony have been putting up at their ages, the hits vastly outweigh the misses.

 

[YTF]

He's going to sign... a 6+ year contract? So 1B or DH will be full during that timeframe, while the Sox are trying to get Campbell, Mayer, and Grissom into the infield. I anticipate that in 2 or so years, Devers is going to move to DH with Casas staying at first. That can't happen with Alonso on the team, which would mean lesser defense and blocked young players for the majority of a deal for Alonso at the same time that his performance will likely take a nosedive.

I anticipate that in 2 years or so that it's entirely possible that at least one of Casas, Mayer, Campbell or Grissom may not be here.

 

[LogansDad]

Ya know what I would find fun to watch?: The crazily athletic, skies-the-limit Kristian Campbell, rather than that cocky past-his-prime douche Bregman.

I absolutely, 100% do not disagree with you even a little bit, and that is my preference.

 

[Fishy1]

Jackson Holliday is a recent data point to the contrary. The major leagues are hard

Thanks for this insight! I had no idea the major leagues are hard!

But no, Jackson Holliday is not a recent data point to the contrary, not really, because Jackson Holliday did not do what Campbell did to the minor leagues.

Holliday is 42nd on that list. He managed a wrc+ 20 points lower (a huge amount!-that's the difference between Trevor Story and Triston Casas last year). Still some pretty impressive company, but there's busts here and guys who didn't get off to a great start.



(Worth noting that even at 35-50 you have a lot of guys who got off to roaring starts.)

The point is that Campbell would be a major, major outlier if he struggled at first introduction to the big leagues given the company he keeps (Soto, Schwarber, Belt, etc.). Is it impossible? No! But a lot of things are not impossible and still happen.

We have to deal with probabilities, and given what he did to the minor leagues, I'd give him a 90% chance of getting off to a very-good to great start.

 

[koufax32]

Worth noting that adding a high quality starting pitcher (two, ideally) kills two birds with one stone because it (hopefully) once and for all puts Whitlock in the pen where we’ve seen him excel as a bullpen ace.

 

[Tokyo Sox]

We have to deal with probabilities, and given what he did to the minor leagues, I'd give him a 90% chance of getting off to a very-good to great start.

So you're saying he's...ready to deliver?

 

[Fishy1]

So you're saying he's...ready to deliver?

You're darn tootin.

Worth noting that adding a high quality starting pitcher (two, ideally) kills two birds with one stone because it (hopefully) once and for all puts Whitlock in the pen where we’ve seen him excel as a bullpen ace.

Worth noting:



I think even without that extra starting pitcher, I'd hope that Fitts/Criswell/Priester would be ahead of him on the depth chart given how badly we need Whitlock healthy for the bullpen's sake. Our depth doesn't necessarily look better than it did last year in that regard, but it's not worse.

Of course, I still want to and think we need to add that pitcher!

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Or the "limit" isn't precisely money, it's pitchers over 30 to long-term FA deals

Bingo. Yahtzee. Jenga. Whatever you say when you win at Scrabble (nod to fellow Sox fan Conan O'Brien on that one).

Which doesn't excuse them sitting out or not being aggressive on the MLB hitting market and completely sitting out the middle tier arms market (which they have for years) and won't excuse them from it this year. But to be fair, FSG won 4 titles without really investing at the top of the FA pitching market on guys over 30 (though at least then it was a bit more frequent). FSRedbird has sat out entirely. (With just FSG, they did it roughly 10% of the time - Price and Lackey - with FSRedbird they'd done it 0% of the time).

I do think that with Bloom gone, Breslow in and Theo back, they will remedy the "sitting out completely" thing this year. I don't think it's going to be on top of the market FA starting pitchers covering their mid to late 30s seasons.

 

[LogansDad]

Bingo. Yahtzee. Jenga. Whatever you say when you win at Scrabble (nod to fellow Sox fan Conan O'Brien on that one).

Which doesn't excuse them sitting out or not being aggressive on the MLB hitting market and completely sitting out the middle tier arms market (which they have for years) and won't excuse them from it this year. But to be fair, FSG won 4 titles without really investing at the top of the FA pitching market on guys over 30 (though at least then it was a bit more frequent). FSRedbird has sat out entirely. (With just FSG, they did it roughly 10% of the time - Price and Lackey - with FSRedbird they'd done it 0% of the time).

I do think that with Bloom gone, Breslow in and Theo back, they will remedy the "sitting out completely" thing this year. I don't think it's going to be on top of the market FA starting pitchers covering their mid to late 30s seasons.

I'm kind of curious if they have any interested in one of the really, really old starters on a one or two year deal. Scherzer/Verlander would probably not improve the rotation much, if at all, but from everything I have read both seem like the kind of guys who could help the guys like Bello/Crawford/Houck up their game a bit through some mentoring (not that Pivetta wasn't able to do this, but he was also coming up on his one chance at a big contract so he probably had other things on his mind this season).

 

[grimshaw]

I don't have any interest in Alonso, or, more narrowly, long term commitments of money on the position unless they are a Freeman or Guerrero since most are DH's in waiting. The Braves have already had a 684 PA w/RC 117 season from Matt Olson in year 3 of an 8 year deal and he'll be 31 this season. And he is NOT a good fielder.

I will smash something if they move Casas, not because of the love but because of his cost and they can spend money elsewhere. I'd move Abreu before I move him because of the logjam and I would hate moving him.

 

[Auger34]

Thanks for this insight! I had no idea the major leagues are hard!

But no, Jackson Holliday is not a recent data point to the contrary, not really, because Jackson Holliday did not do what Campbell did to the minor leagues.

Holliday is 42nd on that list. He managed a wrc+ 20 points lower (a huge amount!-that's the difference between Trevor Story and Triston Casas last year). Still some pretty impressive company, but there's busts here and guys who didn't get off to a great start.

View attachment 93026

(Worth noting that even at 35-50 you have a lot of guys who got off to roaring starts.)

The point is that Campbell would be a major, major outlier if he struggled at first introduction to the big leagues given the company he keeps (Soto, Schwarber, Belt, etc.). Is it impossible? No! But a lot of things are not impossible and still happen.

We have to deal with probabilities, and given what he did to the minor leagues, I'd give him a 90% chance of getting off to a very-good to great start.

My issue with this is that the Sox front office has all of this data (and loads more about Campbell that we aren’t privy to).

If it was 90% odds that he would get off to a great start, shouldn’t he be an automatic, completely obvious opening day starter?

 

[brandonchristensen]

I can’t believe how easily we are dismissing Casas. Dudes a potential All Star. I want to like who I’m cheering for, not plug in some trash can douchebag.

The Sox are so not fun to root for these days. Just a carousel of who cares.

 

[Auger34]

I can’t believe how easily we are dismissing Casas. Dudes a potential All Star. I want to like who I’m cheering for, not plug in some trash can douchebag.

The Sox are so not fun to root for these days. Just a carousel of who cares.

Yeah, I would much rather just pay money to get Fried than trade Casas. Seems like a robbing Peter to pay Paul situation

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

I'm kind of curious if they have any interested in one of the really, really old starters on a one or two year deal. Scherzer/Verlander would probably not improve the rotation much, if at all, but from everything I have read both seem like the kind of guys who could help the guys like Bello/Crawford/Houck up their game a bit through some mentoring (not that Pivetta wasn't able to do this, but he was also coming up on his one chance at a big contract so he probably had other things on his mind this season).

Maybe if they miss out on Eovaldi / Flaherty / trade.

If it so happened that they made massive changes to the line up and added a ToR pitcher via trade (which would cost a ton), that'd be something I'd be on board with.

Hypothetical - Casas and Mayer to Pitt for Jared Jones (this is probably what it would take to have any real shot at him). Sign Bregman and CWalker. Sign "Scherlander."

Duran, Story, Devers, Bregman, Abreu, CWalker, Anthony, Wong, Campbell / Grissom
Houck, Jones, Bello, Scherlander, Giolito. Crawford (still would end up with at least 20 starts in this scenario based on Giolito coming back from the brace and the issues that Scherlander have had staying on the mound the past couple of years).


(Again, we would all - I think - rather keep Casas and sign Fried. For the record. This is purely based on my strong assumption that FSRedbird isn't giving anyone a huge, top of the market FA deal, especially for an older SP).