Much like Newman, the Sox are not “Ready to deliver”– The 2025 Offseason News (& rumors?) Thread

E5 Yaz

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He missed the first two months with an oblique injury, and his numbers the rest of the way compared to previous years seem like a guy who just hadn't fully recovered.
Which makes me wonder why the Braves would want to trade him. Do they have a catcher about to break into the majors? Maybe @absintheofmalaise has some insight
 

bosox1534

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Which makes me wonder why the Braves would want to trade him. Do they have a catcher about to break into the majors? Maybe @absintheofmalaise has some insight
Their farm system is pretty bad, but they do have one guy right now who is top 5 in their system that could be ready sometime in 2025. He’s by no means a blue chip prospect though, more like a backup with ceiling as a starter.
 

Rich Garces Belly

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I’m all for buying low on Sean Murphy, he would be a massive improvement and fix the teams biggest defensive liability. Any projections on what it would cost?
 

nvalvo

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OK, so Stats said "Weirdest one with Sean Murphy, Wilyer Abreu, pitching, and prospects." What would that actually look like?

I'm going to use the BTV surplus value numbers as a shorthand. BTV has Sean Murphy as -16.1. Presumably the appeal here is that the Sox and Braves see his bounceback potential differently. If we could get a RHH catcher who is actually a viable 5/6 hitter, as Murphy has sometimes been, that would be huge. He was great against LHP in 22–23. (Bad against everyone in 2024.)

Chris Sale is not coming back. Spencer Strider is a +175, so... untradeable. But the other Spencer, Schwellenbach, is a +33. He'll turn 25 next season, has less than one year of service time, and just threw a very nice 120 IP in Atlanta. That's not a name-brand ace, but it's definitely a guy who could crack the front half of our rotation. I wouldn't hate that as an acquisition. I'd assume that BTV's surplus value number for Schwellenbach is a bit light, but it's what we have for these purposes.

Wilyer is at +28.9, so he is probably more valuable than Schwellenbach + Murphy. But I'd imagine we want the Braves to pitch in some money to defray Murphy's implosion risk, so something like Murphy, Schwellenbach, and a moderate amount of money for Wilyer and a lesser prospect or two from our 8-25 range could be a plausible win-win deal.
 

SouthernBoSox

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OK, so Stats said "Weirdest one with Sean Murphy, Wilyer Abreu, pitching, and prospects." What would that actually look like?

I'm going to use the BTV surplus value numbers as a shorthand. BTV has Sean Murphy as -16.1. Presumably the appeal here is that the Sox and Braves see his bounceback potential differently. If we could get a RHH catcher who is actually a viable 5/6 hitter, as Murphy has sometimes been, that would be huge. He was great against LHP in 22–23. (Bad against everyone in 2024.)

Chris Sale is not coming back. Spencer Strider is a +175, so... untradeable. But the other Spencer, Schwellenbach, is a +33. He'll turn 25 next season, has less than one year of service time, and just threw a very nice 120 IP in Atlanta. That's not a name-brand ace, but it's definitely a guy who could crack the front half of our rotation. I wouldn't hate that as an acquisition. I'd assume that BTV's surplus value number for Schwellenbach is a bit light, but it's what we have for these purposes.

Wilyer is at +28.9, so he is probably more valuable than Schwellenbach + Murphy. But I'd imagine we want the Braves to pitch in some money to defray Murphy's implosion risk, so something like Murphy, Schwellenbach, and a moderate amount of money for Wilyer and a lesser prospect or two from our 8-25 range could be a plausible win-win deal.
You would probably staple Yoshida on it.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Hell, Yoshida for Murphy could be an interesting deal that would solve a lot of roster problems, at least. Yoshida is owed 3/57, Murphy 4/60.
 

simplicio

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OK, so Stats said "Weirdest one with Sean Murphy, Wilyer Abreu, pitching, and prospects." What would that actually look like?

I'm going to use the BTV surplus value numbers as a shorthand. BTV has Sean Murphy as -16.1. Presumably the appeal here is that the Sox and Braves see his bounceback potential differently. If we could get a RHH catcher who is actually a viable 5/6 hitter, as Murphy has sometimes been, that would be huge. He was great against LHP in 22–23. (Bad against everyone in 2024.)

Chris Sale is not coming back. Spencer Strider is a +175, so... untradeable. But the other Spencer, Schwellenbach, is a +33. He'll turn 25 next season, has less than one year of service time, and just threw a very nice 120 IP in Atlanta. That's not a name-brand ace, but it's definitely a guy who could crack the front half of our rotation. I wouldn't hate that as an acquisition. I'd assume that BTV's surplus value number for Schwellenbach is a bit light, but it's what we have for these purposes.

Wilyer is at +28.9, so he is probably more valuable than Schwellenbach + Murphy. But I'd imagine we want the Braves to pitch in some money to defray Murphy's implosion risk, so something like Murphy, Schwellenbach, and a moderate amount of money for Wilyer and a lesser prospect or two from our 8-25 range could be a plausible win-win deal.
Uh yeah no. Murphy is one year removed from back to back 5 WAR seasons and Schwellenbach is a phenom. BTV is not the right tool to use here.
 

bosox1534

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Hell, Yoshida for Murphy could be an interesting deal that would solve a lot of roster problems, at least. Yoshida is owed 3/57, Murphy 4/60.
I wish, but I doubt Braves would do this as they already have Ozuna who is a stud at DH and a worse fielder than Yoshida. Unless they think Yoshida is a better fielder than the Red Sox do.
 

bosox1534

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Uh yeah no. Murphy is one year removed from back to back 5 WAR seasons and Schwellenbach is a phenom. BTV is not the right tool to use here.
Schwellenbach isn’t really a phenom, he’s a good young player who had a similar rookie year to Kutter Crawford’s 2023 season. I think Murphy and him for Abreu and another lower level prospect is a fair deal.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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I wish, but I doubt Braves would do this as they already have Ozuna who is a stud at DH and a worse fielder than Yoshida. Unless they think Yoshida is a better fielder than the Red Sox do.
Not sure how the Braves evaluate his defense, but I'd rather have Yoshida than Jarred K. all things considered.

And I see the gears turning in your brains, so allow me to say: stop it! Jarred Kelenic is not a bounceback candidate worth taking a flyer on! He'd be useless on this team, and, at the risk of drifting into Bill Simmons-isms, he's a losing player. Don't even suggest it!
 

Hee Sox Choi

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Schwellenbach, is a +33. He'll turn 25 next season, has less than one year of service time, and just threw a very nice 120 IP in Atlanta. That's not a name-brand ace…
PitcherList has Schwellenbach as the #27 SP for 2025.
InvisibleBrickWall has him #73 overall in their dynasty rankings.
FG had him as a 50 and I’m guessing they would bump him to a 55 now.
and he just proved it in the majors and finished strong.

And he’s athletic:
Graduation TLDR: A brand new cutter and deep projection on his changeup and command (thanks to his two-way background and reps lost due to injury) had Schwelly looking like a future mid-rotation starter as he graduated from rookie status.

You are not getting him for Abreu.
 

simplicio

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Schwellenbach isn’t really a phenom, he’s a good young player who had a similar rookie year to Kutter Crawford’s 2023 season. I think Murphy and him for Abreu and another lower level prospect is a fair deal.
From July on (after his first 6 MLB starts):
2.54 era
3.04 fip
9.29 k/9
1.37 bb/9
110 pitching+
6.13 IP/start

I like Kutter more than a lot of people here but he's not throwing 96.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Why? Signing Bregman, moving Devers to 1b, moving Casas for pitching feels like a fairly solid plan to improve the team. Even if it was Ken Rosenthal’s idea.
 

snowmanny

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I understand the desire for a RHH but why get one with a reverse split?
OPS vs LHP: 2024: 712; 2023: 696; 2022: 703;


Seems to miss the point.

Edit-Maybe I am missing something.
 

Seels

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The last time I wanted a stay away from a free agent as badly as Bregman was Sandoval, and then Crawford. Would be an amazing mistake.
 

soxhop411

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Dana Brown didn’t exactly throw cold water on the idea that Kyle Tucker is available. Now that’s something worth putting together a substantial package for.
View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1866269406260863030

View: https://twitter.com/MacCerullo/status/1866268450768769202


Also, Here is CB full commnets to NESN earlier today

View: https://twitter.com/NESN/status/1866264175691129306

View: https://twitter.com/NESN/status/1866264385548931345
 

BaseballJones

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The last time I wanted a stay away from a free agent as badly as Bregman was Sandoval, and then Crawford. Would be an amazing mistake.
Bregman is a very good baseball player. He'd help this team immensely, both offensively and defensively, probably for several years, then obviously less so at the end of his contract.
 

Salem's Lot

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Bregman is a very good baseball player. He'd help this team immensely, both offensively and defensively, probably for several years, then obviously less so at the end of his contract.
I agree with this. It also might be nice to have someone that was a big part of a multiple time championship group in the room when the Anthony’s, Meyer’s, etc get to the bigs.
 

E5 Yaz

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Breslow on looking for a catcher (The Athletic, paywalled):
“I think finding the right backup, the right compliment to Connor is something that we are prioritizing,” Breslow said. “Whether that comes via free agency or trade, we’ll determine. We’re obviously super excited what we think Kyle Teel can be but want to make sure we’re not putting so much pressure on someone who hasn’t set foot on a big league field yet. So, want to find the right balance of being patient while also ensuring that we’re not unnecessarily creating obstacles to the development of any player.”
 

Ferm Sheller

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Breslow on looking for a catcher (The Athletic, paywalled):
“I think finding the right backup, the right compliment to Connor is something that we are prioritizing,” Breslow said. “Whether that comes via free agency or trade, we’ll determine. We’re obviously super excited what we think Kyle Teel can be but want to make sure we’re not putting so much pressure on someone who hasn’t set foot on a big league field yet. So, want to find the right balance of being patient while also ensuring that we’re not unnecessarily creating obstacles to the development of any player.”
Breslow really made the compliment/complement mistake? I thought he went to Yale. :)
 

LogansDad

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Any package of prospects outside the Big 4 and Casas. This includes Abreu.
For Tucker, I agree. He doesn't fill the RHB need, but he isn't terrible against LHP, either (.840 OPS and a .374 OBP against LHP in 2024, Red Sox as a team were at .318, according to B-Ref). A guy like him on a one year rental is almost exactly what this team needs. Get him before the season starts and you can QO him at the end of the year, too.

The Red Sox need players who get on base. They had speed, they had decent power, and they did okay scoring runs last year, but they struck out too much and stranded too many runners. Tucker walked more than he struck out last year. I would love to add him at nearly any non-big 4 cost.
 

LogansDad

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His OPS+ by year

116
125
152
162
117
113
134
122
118

That’s pretty darn solid.
FWIW, 118 is 4 points better than Wilyer Abreu was last year.

I thought Bregman was older, TBH, but I really think he could be a decent bet, the more I think about it, especially is you can convince Devers to move to third.

Adding him and Tucker (noted above) would also hopefully help them not be 3rd worst in the league at striking out 10x per game, too.
 

OCD SS

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His OPS+ by year

116
125
152
162
117
113
134
122
118

That’s pretty darn solid.
How do you look at that trend of distribution and expect him to maintain his offensive production for 6 years+?

To put it another way, how much are you willing to top the Astros’ $156M/ 6? And how many years are you willing to eat on the back end?
 

SouthernBoSox

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I'll take Framber over any of the guys we've been discussing, trade or FA. Obviously the acquisition cost would be high and he's entering his walk year. But Framber with an extension is a rotation anchor.
I don’t think you can really get any of these guys in walk years to sign an extension unless it’s huge. The deals these starters are getting are massive.
 

Jimbodandy

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Well, if the Sox trade Grissom, Yoshida, and $$ for a decent prospect or two, and then sign Bregman and Teoscar, well now, that's a substantial upgrade on the MLB roster.

C - Wong
1b - Casas
2b - Bregman
3b - Devers
SS - Story
LF - Anthony/Campbell
CF - Duran
RF - Abreu/Refsnyder
DH - Teoscar

1 Duran
2 Bregman
3 Devers
4 Teoscar
5 Casas
6 Story
7 Abreu/Refsnyder
8 Anthony/Campbell
9 Wong

It allows Anthony and/or Campbell to come along at a nice easy pace.
I love it, but why would anyone send a decent prospect or two for Grissom or Yoshida. Even if we pay all of Masa's salary. Maybe some 4A guys or super far away non bonus babies.
 

Bosoxman2004

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I am really kind of hoping that we trade for Arenado rather than signing Bregman. Especially if that means Yoshida is off this team. I like Arenado in a 3b/1b/DH role kind of in the mode of what Turner did 2 years ago. I feel like the fit works better than Yoshida too from a handedness standpoint.
 

chrisfont9

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I don’t think you can really get any of these guys in walk years to sign an extension unless it’s huge. The deals these starters are getting are massive.
Yeah, it comes down to whether you can (and want to) go to a number that overcomes their curiosity about being the subject of a bidding war. If the Astros are willing to deal Framber, they probably think he's determined to get to the FA market, in which case I'm a hard no. Someone else whose window is closing can have him. Ours is just opening and we can't cash out too hard for one year of this.
 

loneredseat

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From July on (after his first 6 MLB starts):
2.54 era
3.04 fip
9.29 k/9
1.37 bb/9
110 pitching+
6.13 IP/start

I like Kutter more than a lot of people here but he's not throwing 96.
Of the three (Schwellenbach, Crochet, and Jones) it seems like Crochet and Jones have that crazy nasty stuff. Schwellenbach hits 97 but he throws more off speed stuff, and his 97 somehow doesn't look quite like Crochet's and Jones'. Still, it would be great to have him.
The thing that worries me about Crochet is that his delivery is pretty violent. I'd be worried about injuries more with him. Not so much with Jones. And 5 years left before FA? Of the young pitchers out there, he's the one I'd go after.
 

DJnVa

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He was really bad last year - like puzzling bad after some very good years. Gold glove...AS... MVP votes.... It would be awesome to straighten him out. If Atlanta takes most of that Salary and it gets Fried to Boston, I am good with that.
As to the MVP votes...it was MVP vote. Singular. He got 1 vote in 2022. For 10th place. On a team that lost 100 games. Weird vote.
 

simplicio

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Of the three (Schwellenbach, Crochet, and Jones) it seems like Crochet and Jones have that crazy nasty stuff. Schwellenbach hits 97 but he throws more off speed stuff, and his 97 somehow doesn't look quite like Crochet's and Jones'. Still, it would be great to have him.
The thing that worries me about Crochet is that his delivery is pretty violent. I'd be worried about injuries more with him. Not so much with Jones. And 5 years left before FA? Of the young pitchers out there, he's the one I'd go after.
Schwellenbach should have a lot of control too? Fangraphs has 4 years and Spotrac 6 so I don't know what's up with that.

Get me any of them (or Woo) though and I think our team improves significantly.