Much like Newman, the Sox are not “Ready to deliver”– The 2025 Offseason News (& rumors?) Thread

BaseballJones

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Wowza- losing 3 homeruns and gaining 20-26 is crazy.
Well a bunch of those balls to left might be lower liners off the Monster, but yeah, he hits well to all fields and has plenty of power to homer to right in Fenway. He'd be incredible with Boston.
 

CreightonGubanich

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Still seems very unlikely to happen of course, but I've come around on the idea of Soto a bit after initially thinking signing him would be a misuse of resources. What's changed for me is realizing it isn't so much "starting pitching" that the Sox lack, it's elite talent. They have a lot of guys who are just...fine, as in you don't necessarily need to upgrade any one of them in particular, but you have to upgrade some of them somewhere in order to be a contender. And that's true in the rotation and in the lineup, even if I still think elite starting pitching is their biggest need.

Wilyer Abreu is a really good player, and Kutter Crawford is a fine starting pitcher, but at some point the Sox need to swap some of these "pretty good" guys for stars. Soto certainly qualifies.
 

RedOctober3829

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Still seems very unlikely to happen of course, but I've come around on the idea of Soto a bit after initially thinking signing him would be a misuse of resources. What's changed for me is realizing it isn't so much "starting pitching" that the Sox lack, it's elite talent. They have a lot of guys who are just...fine, as in you don't necessarily need to upgrade any one of them in particular, but you have to upgrade some of them somewhere in order to be a contender. And that's true in the rotation and in the lineup, even if I still think elite starting pitching is their biggest need.

Wilyer Abreu is a really good player, and Kutter Crawford is a fine starting pitcher, but at some point the Sox need to swap some of these "pretty good" guys for stars. Soto certainly qualifies.
Getting Juan Soto would make Devers a better player if you want to think of it that way too. Whether you bat Devers 2nd and Soto 3rd or the other way around, each player would have protection in the order.
 

RedOctober3829

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Seems like they will make an effort here. Makes too much sense. Doubtful they land him but this feels real to me.
Yeah I do too. It also bodes well that if they do get Soto they wouldn't be finished at the top of the market either. They can't just get Soto and not try to improve the pitching staff. This signals to me that they are ready to spend big again. I think ownership realizes there is a really good young core and the time is now.
 

Yaz4Ever

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I’ve been saying all along that we need to be in on him and blow him away with an offer he can’t refuse. NYM, in particular, will do the same.

Sign Soto, trade for Crochet, sign Fried and Scott and enjoy the winning.
 

sezwho

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Getting Juan Soto would make Devers a better player if you want to think of it that way too. Whether you bat Devers 2nd and Soto 3rd or the other way around, each player would have protection in the order.
Lord sakes I’m trying not to get excited here and someone goes ahead and plants a seed like that in my brain. Damnit.
 

Van Everyman

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If we sign Soto, I'd love it more if it's immediately following the announcement that the Yankees have re-signed Alex Verdugo.
Can someone explain the reason the Sox would open up the wallet for Soto? Obviously he would be a huge upgrade over anyone. But this team needs pitching a lot more than it needs hitting. Why would pitching not be the focus here?
 

NickEsasky

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Can someone explain the reason the Sox would open up the wallet for Soto? Obviously he would be a huge upgrade over anyone. But this team needs pitching a lot more than it needs hitting. Why would pitching not be the focus here?
Just my 2 cents but:
-Age
-Elite hitting and OB skills
-Butts in seats
 

simplicio

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If they only sign Soto don't get any relievers, I'd agree. But presumably they'll do both cause they aren't stupid.
 

Max Power

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Can someone explain the reason the Sox would open up the wallet for Soto? Obviously he would be a huge upgrade over anyone. But this team needs pitching a lot more than it needs hitting. Why would pitching not be the focus here?
They need both. The hitting and pitching were both roughly average when taking park effects into account.
 

Hank Scorpio

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Can someone explain the reason the Sox would open up the wallet for Soto? Obviously he would be a huge upgrade over anyone. But this team needs pitching a lot more than it needs hitting. Why would pitching not be the focus here?
For me, pitching is obviously the priority - and would hope that if we're going after Soto - ownership is willing to do both. Trade for Crochet if it doesn't involve ATM-C, and sign Max Fried (Burnes' declining peripherals scare me, and I feel like Snell is some minor regression in his H/9 and HR/9 away from being an unmitigated disaster - I'd stay far away). Bring in a bullpen guy like Tanner Scott. I think all of these can be done while also signing Soto.

Personally, I'd like to keep Kutter Crawford if we can, and have Giolito as the odd man out, or as a sixth starter/swing guy. If the pitching machine can help Crawford cut down on his home runs, I think the guy is an all-star level pitcher.

I'd be very happy with a rotation of Fried, Houck, Crochet, Bello, Crawford.
 

Mugsy's Jock

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Getting Juan Soto would make Devers a better player if you want to think of it that way too. Whether you bat Devers 2nd and Soto 3rd or the other way around, each player would have protection in the order.
Signing Soto...
...enhances Devers by giving protection as noted above.
...also enhances Casas, who'd be hitting behind him.
...easily covers for putting Abreu on the table as a trade chip, and...
...Soto/Duran/Anthony LF/CF/RF is pretty tasty.... or...
...Soto would even allow you to consider moving Duran for a top-end young controlled pitcher
...because it would also allow you to put Rafaela more regularly in CF, and he'd nicely help erase Soto's subpar defense. Anthony/Rafaela/Soto!
...would also make carrying Yoshida at DH, which you have to because of the sunk cost, just fine.

Plenty of downsides too, of course. One injury to Soto turns 2-3 soft spots in the line-up to 3-4, and that's really too much to handle. And it's super unlikely.

But a boy can dream.
 

Mugsy's Jock

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Personally, I'd like to keep Kutter Crawford if we can, and have Giolito as the odd man out, or as a sixth starter/swing guy. If the pitching machine can help Crawford cut down on his home runs, I think the guy is an all-star level pitcher.
I totally agree that Crawford has more headroom to reach his ceiling. But Giolito is unlikely to be available before June, so don't think he's tradeable any time soon.
 

SouthernBoSox

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Can someone explain the reason the Sox would open up the wallet for Soto? Obviously he would be a huge upgrade over anyone. But this team needs pitching a lot more than it needs hitting. Why would pitching not be the focus here?
I’m starting to realize people are drastically overstate the performance of the positional group last year. They faded down the stretch big time.

The bullpen was so bad it kinda overshadowed a tired positional group.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Can someone explain the reason the Sox would open up the wallet for Soto? Obviously he would be a huge upgrade over anyone. But this team needs pitching a lot more than it needs hitting. Why would pitching not be the focus here?

I hate doing this to myself because it gives even the slightest bit of credence in my own mind of Soto actually joining the Red Sox, however... I really don't think JWH is going to give up a long term deal for an older SP. I think he could be talked into it for a 26yr old hitter though...

Per Cots, they have about $78m left before LTT. Using the MLBTR prediction (13/$600m) and @jon abbey prediction (15/$645m) I'll go ahead and say it would take 15/$652.5m for him to end up in Boston ($43.5m AAV). That leaves the Sox $34.5m

Trade Abreu, Mayer, Crawford, Bleis and Yoshida to ChW for Crochet (the admittedly significant overpay is to get them to pay Yoshida's deal), puts them back at $52.5m below.

Sign Anthony Santander (using MLBTR) at 4/$80m/$20m ($32.5m). I chose him over Teoscar because Santander has at least played some 1b (a whopping 15 games, most of which were in 2023) so he could ostensibly at least provide back up for Casas if he gets injured for the third season in a row...

Sign Nate Eovaldi for 3yrs/$54m/$18m ($14.5m below)

Sign Kirby Yates to close, call it 2yrs/$22/$11mAAV ($3.5m below)

Sign something to be the back up C at $2m ($1.5m below).


Line up:
CF - Duran (L)
SS - Story (R)
3b - Devers (L)
LF/DH - Soto (L)
DH / LF - Santander (R)
1b - Casas (L)
C - Wong (R)
RF - Anthony (L)
2b - Grissom / Campbell (R)

Bench - Rafaela (but he's playing SS once Story gets injured by about May 1st), Campbell / Grissom, Refsnyder, Hamilton, said back up C

Rotation
Crochet
Houck
Eovaldi
Bello
Giolito / Priester / Fitts.

Bullpen
Yates, Slaten, etc, etc.


Odds anything like this happens - incredibly small. But that would be an excellent team, much more balanced, and you still have 3 of the big 4 prospects.
 

jon abbey

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Is there a thread analyzing BOS's current 40 man situation before rosters have to be locked next week for the rule 5 draft? I don't see one but maybe I'm overlooking it.
 

Hank Scorpio

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Signing Soto...
...enhances Devers by giving protection as noted above.
...also enhances Casas, who'd be hitting behind him.
...easily covers for putting Abreu on the table as a trade chip, and...
...Soto/Duran/Anthony LF/CF/RF is pretty tasty.... or...
...Soto would even allow you to consider moving Duran for a top-end young controlled pitcher
...because it would also allow you to put Rafaela more regularly in CF, and he'd nicely help erase Soto's subpar defense. Anthony/Rafaela/Soto!
...would also make carrying Yoshida at DH, which you have to because of the sunk cost, just fine.

Plenty of downsides too, of course. One injury to Soto turns 2-3 soft spots in the line-up to 3-4, and that's really too much to handle. And it's super unlikely.

But a boy can dream.
My wet dream of an offseason is...
- Sign Soto
- Trade Abreu and Bleis for Crochet
- Sign Fried
- Sign Teoscar and make Yoshida disappear somehow (is he even going to be ready for ST?)
- Sign Tanner Scott

No idea where that would put us in terms of payroll.

Rotation:
Max Fried (L), Tanner Houck (R), Garret Crochet (L), Brayan Bello (R), Kutter Crawford (R)

Bullpen:
Liam Hendricks (R), Tanner Scott (L), Justin Slaten (R), Garrett Whitlock (R), Lucas Giolito (R), Cooper Criswell (R), Michael Fullmer (R), Cam Booser (L)

Lineup:
CF - Jarren Duran (L)
RF - Juan Soto (R)
3B - Rafael Devers (L)
DH - Teoscar Hernandez (R)
1B - Triston Casas (L)
2B - Kristian Campbell (R)
LF - Roman Anthony (L)
SS - Trevor Story (R)
C - Conner Wong (R) / Kyle Teel (L)

Bench:
Vaughn Grissom, Ceddanne Rafaela, Rob Refsnyder, David Hamilton

(Side note, I'd prefer Roki Sasaki to Max Fried, but you know... Dodgers)
 

Mugsy's Jock

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chawson

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I know a lot of people don't want to get their hopes up or look foolish online, or have otherwise put all their eggs in the ownership is cheap basket, but it's quite possible that the (relative) lack of spending from years past had to do with a long-held organizational understanding that there was mutual interest and they had a really good shot to sign Soto, and in some cases wanted to keep the powder dry. To me that sounds more plausible than the idea that John Henry would abruptly and permanently run the Red Sox like a mid-market franchise or whatever.
 

8slim

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I know a lot of people don't want to get their hopes up or look foolish online, or have otherwise put all their eggs in the ownership is cheap basket, but it's quite possible that the (relative) lack of spending from years past had to do with a long-held organizational understanding that there was mutual interest and they had a really good shot to sign Soto, and in some cases wanted to keep the powder dry. To me that sounds more plausible than the idea that John Henry would abruptly and permanently run the Red Sox like a mid-market franchise or whatever.
I think it's unlikely that the Sox have spent several years waiting for Soto. At least to the extent that they eschewed big ticket FAs for, what, three offseasons to hope he'd sign for 2025? Particularly since we changed GMs during those years.

The most likely explanation is that the FO didn't see a path to a WS until the refreshed farm started producing, and decided to punt on signing anyone of consequence until that occurred.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I know a lot of people don't want to get their hopes up or look foolish online, or have otherwise put all their eggs in the ownership is cheap basket, but it's quite possible that the (relative) lack of spending from years past had to do with a long-held organizational understanding that there was mutual interest and they had a really good shot to sign Soto, and in some cases wanted to keep the powder dry. To me that sounds more plausible than the idea that John Henry would abruptly and permanently run the Red Sox like a mid-market franchise or whatever.
Yeah, no. If there was truly a mutual interest, we can get a deal done thing on the back burner, they could have traded for him when he was sent to San Diego (let alone when the Yankees got him) and inked an extension then. No way do they sit back for three years stockpiling and saving just for the chance of signing him as a free agent. Too much could have changed in the meantime, like he signs an extension with another team and never hits free agency.

They're a player for him because he happens to be hitting free agency at the right time in the franchise's rebuild/retool, not because he's been their ultimate target all along.
 

RedOctober3829

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More SoxScout on Bluesky: "I don't think they're the favorites, but I don't think it's a we offer 500 million and he signs for 650 either. Cohen may simply refuse to be beat, but they are going into it thinking they can make it a Soto decision, not a money decision".
 

Yelling At Clouds

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SoxProspects podcast yesterday. They said recovery from TJ was 12 full months before throwing in earnest off a mound, and assume a couple months' ramp-up from there. Giolito's surgery was in April.

But would be delighted if McCaffrey's estimate were more accurate.
Technically, Lucas G. got the "brace" surgery, which, according to that article, only comes with an expected 9-month recovery, as opposed to full-blown TJS.
 

RedOctober3829

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Robert Murray on the Baseball Insiders live stream:
--Red Sox will spend this offseason.
--They love Juan Soto and will be in on him.
--The one thing I keep coming back to on Soto/Boston: Can John Henry outbid Cohen or Steinbrenner? Skeptical he will considering how motivated Yankees/Mets are.
--Will be a while before Soto comes off the board. Expects some movement around the Winter Meetings.
--Had a GM tell me a Soto deal will end up being for 13 years and around $41 million AAV($533 million)
 

BigSoxFan

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Robert Murray on the Baseball Insiders live stream:
--Red Sox will spend this offseason.
--They love Juan Soto and will be in on him.
--The one thing I keep coming back to on Soto/Boston: Can John Henry outbid Cohen or Steinbrenner? Skeptical he will considering how motivated Yankees/Mets are.
--Will be a while before Soto comes off the board. Expects some movement around the Winter Meetings.
--Had a GM tell me a Soto deal will end up being for 13 years and around $41 million AAV($533 million)
On the Henry one, he can absolutely outbid Cohen or Steinbrenner if he wants. The question is does he want to. We’ve all demonstrated that he can fit a major Soto deal into the Sox general budget amount. It would have ripple effects elsewhere but just looking purely at Soto, there are no financial constraints.

I also think the GM’s prediction will prove to be low. I would do 13/533 without blinking right now.
 

RedOctober3829

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On the Henry one, he can absolutely outbid Cohen or Steinbrenner if he wants. The question is does he want to. We’ve all demonstrated that he can fit a major Soto deal into the Sox general budget amount. It would have ripple effects elsewhere but just looking purely at Soto, there are no financial constraints.

I also think the GM’s prediction will prove to be low. I would do 13/533 without blinking right now.
I'm also wondering whether Soto would want an opt out after like 5 years and get on the open market again at 30 or 31. If you do that, maybe do the first 5 years at a higher AAV and the other years at a lower AAV.
 

BigSoxFan

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I'm also wondering whether Soto would want an opt out after like 5 years and get on the open market again at 30 or 31. If you do that, maybe do the first 5 years at a higher AAV and the other years at a lower AAV.
Yeah, I don’t think the gross amount or AAV will be the real sticking points. Every interested team can get there. The real question to me is structure of the deal. In a deal that long, you have to imagine Boras will negotiate some player opt outs. And, quite frankly, I’d agree to whatever as long as the first one isn’t sooner than, say, 5 years.
 

chawson

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Yeah, no. If there was truly a mutual interest, we can get a deal done thing on the back burner, they could have traded for him when he was sent to San Diego (let alone when the Yankees got him) and inked an extension then. No way do they sit back for three years stockpiling and saving just for the chance of signing him as a free agent. Too much could have changed in the meantime, like he signs an extension with another team and never hits free agency.

They're a player for him because he happens to be hitting free agency at the right time in the franchise's rebuild/retool, not because he's been their ultimate target all along.
Trading for him when the Padres did would have worsened the conditions that make it possible for us to sign him now, namely the ability to staff several positions with league-minimum above-average regulars. I would have been pleased had it happened but probably not at the cost the Padres paid.

My broader point is that too prevalent is the idea that the relative lack of spending (on mediocre teams) the last few years foreshadows more lack of spending, when it could logically be that we want fewer aging veterans and long-term contracts on the books when we eventually spend big on elite players (that actually want to be here).

But also, I've been surprised by how long in advance they're planning this stuff out. Hadn't the whole organization been heavily scouting Yoshida since 2019?
 

cantor44

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My wet dream of an offseason is...
- Sign Soto
- Trade Abreu and Bleis for Crochet
- Sign Fried
- Sign Teoscar and make Yoshida disappear somehow (is he even going to be ready for ST?)
- Sign Tanner Scott

No idea where that would put us in terms of payroll.

Rotation:
Max Fried (L), Tanner Houck (R), Garret Crochet (L), Brayan Bello (R), Kutter Crawford (R)

Bullpen:
Liam Hendricks (R), Tanner Scott (L), Justin Slaten (R), Garrett Whitlock (R), Lucas Giolito (R), Cooper Criswell (R), Michael Fullmer (R), Cam Booser (L)

Lineup:
CF - Jarren Duran (L)
RF - Juan Soto (R)
3B - Rafael Devers (L)
DH - Teoscar Hernandez (R)
1B - Triston Casas (L)
2B - Kristian Campbell (R)
LF - Roman Anthony (L)
SS - Trevor Story (R)
C - Conner Wong (R) / Kyle Teel (L)

Bench:
Vaughn Grissom, Ceddanne Rafaela, Rob Refsnyder, David Hamilton

(Side note, I'd prefer Roki Sasaki to Max Fried, but you know... Dodgers)
small correction - Soto hits from the left side, too. If they can get him, great, though I think subsequent counter moves to make the line up more balanced L/R would have to happen.
 

Otis Foster

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Yeah, I don’t think the gross amount or AAV will be the real sticking points. Every interested team can get there. The real question to me is structure of the deal. In a deal that long, you have to imagine Boras will negotiate some player opt outs. And, quite frankly, I’d agree to whatever as long as the first one isn’t sooner than, say, 5 years.
I think the opt outs are inevitable. That horse left the stable a long time ago. If it gets to that, the RS would have to ensure that they had at least 5 years of protection before Soto goes to the market.

I thought the structure the Skanks utilized with Cole (?) makes sense: grant the opt outs but permit the team to buy out that right if its willing to commit to a X% increase in salary for the remaining term. You can use your own numbers.

If Soto is in decline, take a pass, although in those circumstances he'd decline to opt out too. so then you're stuck with one another, as if there was no opt out in the first place. If you can't afford him or his skills are redundant because Casas or Anthony is ripping the hide (or whatever it is) off the ball, take a pass. However, if you don't exercise the option, then be prepared to pay a fixed amount as a termination payment and let him go.

One thing strikes me about Boras: He likes complex and innovative deals. Leverage that tendency with innovative proposals of your own.

These deals aren't easy but then you don't get someone with this skill set and star power every day.

(I apologize profusely for citing the Skanks. As a friend said, 'you kiss your mother with a mouth like that'?)
 

nvalvo

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small correction - Soto hits from the left side, too. If they can get him, great, though I think subsequent counter moves to make the line up more balanced L/R would have to happen.
Honest question: why? Soto's career split against LHP is an OBP-heavy .860 OPS, and it was .966 in 2024. He's better left on left than most righties we might acquire to balance the lineup.
 

BringBackMo

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Is this Judgeaport a credible reporter? Embarrassed to say I’m not familiar with his work.