Much like Newman, the Sox are not “Ready to deliver”– The 2025 Offseason News (& rumors?) Thread

zenax

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Its an advantage on a minuscule subset of throws. OTOH, I see more stretches that are too soon (like before the 1Bman has an idea where the ball is going) or otherwise unhelpful (limiting his ability to move laterally) than I do those that steal outs. And they lose the opportunity to steal outs with bad stretches. Good 1B defense is a million miles from "tall is better." I would bet that the likes of Hernandez or Mattingly or Garvey stole more outs than any lumbering 1B man 6 inches taller.
Has there been a study on infield groundouts now that the size of the bases has changed? Obviously, bad stretches has a bearing on putouts by a first baseman but a good stretch should lead to more outs.
 

joe dokes

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Has there been a study on infield groundouts now that the size of the bases has changed? Obviously, bad stretches has a bearing on putouts by a first baseman but a good stretch should lead to more outs.
A few inches of reach on throws of 75-125 feet may matter on a handful of plays. But, like Jose Offerman's ability to go back on popups or Derek Jeter's jump-throws, I think its too small a subset of plays to matter.

(Though an Eddie Gaedel vs Manute Bol at 1B would be a fun math game for someone.)
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Can the Sox actually say, promote both Campbell and Anthony while not getting rid of Grissom and get enough quality AB's for everyone?
Assuming no other deals for offensive players-
LF- Anthony/Duran
CF- Duran/Rafaela
RF- Abreu/Refsnyder
3B- Devers
SS- Story/Rafaela
2B- Grissom/Campbell
1B- Casas
C- Wong/ X
DH- rotation of whoever is not in the OF through rotation, Romy, Devers and Casas

That's your 13 positional players right there. I know that a heavy rotation and platoon might work but I also hate to sit guys when they're in a groove (which Cora does too often IMO). I can see how it would work and be really good against any AL team assuming Soto ends up in the NL
 

LogansDad

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Thoughts on a pivot to Santander if we lose out on Soto and Teo.
I think I said this in the Soto thread, but I kind of hope they just move on to pitching if they don't land Soto. They already have a solid MLB offense, and a healthy (ducks as multiple posters tell me you can't count on it) Trevor Story and Vaughn Grissom (who looked like he was finally recovered the last month of the season), they shouldn't be quite as vulnerable against LHP.

Signing Santander or Teoscar to multiyear deals is only going to make it harder to break in the key assets in Campbell and Anthony, and either one is only a moderate (bordering on marginal when you take defense into account) upgrade to the current roster, IMHO. Both are good players, don't get me wrong, but the cost of signing them is more than money, it is also roster space and plate appearances for developing players.

I want Soto because he is one of the best hitters and best OBP machines in the game today, and hopefully will be for at least another 7-8 years. He isn't an upgrade on the roster, he is an offensive force that is only rivaled by a few in the game today.

If they can't get him, sign Carson Kelly, Max Fried or Nate Eovaldi and a depth starter, another reliable relief pitcher, and call it an offseason. The team wasn't as far off from contending as many want to force themselves to believe.
 

BaseballJones

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I think I said this in the Soto thread, but I kind of hope they just move on to pitching if they don't land Soto. They already have a solid MLB offense, and a healthy (ducks as multiple posters tell me you can't count on it) Trevor Story and Vaughn Grissom (who looked like he was finally recovered the last month of the season), they shouldn't be quite as vulnerable against LHP.

Signing Santander or Teoscar to multiyear deals is only going to make it harder to break in the key assets in Campbell and Anthony, and either one is only a moderate upgrade to the current roster, IMHO. Both are good players, don't get me wrong, but the cost of signing them is more than money, it is also roster space and plate appearances for developing players.

I want Soto because he is one of the best hitters and best OBP machines in the game today, and hopefully will be for at least another 7-8 years. He isn't an upgrade on the roster, he is an offensive force that is only rivaled by a few in the game today.

If they can't get him, sign Carson Kelly, Max Fried or Nate Eovaldi and a depth starter, another reliable relief pitcher, and call it an offseason. The team wasn't as far off from contending as many want to force themselves to believe.
Well all that, and add to it that all their young studs coming up through the system are position players (hitters), not pitchers.
 

simplicio

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Can the Sox actually say, promote both Campbell and Anthony while not getting rid of Grissom and get enough quality AB's for everyone?
Assuming no other deals for offensive players-
LF- Anthony/Duran
CF- Duran/Rafaela
RF- Abreu/Refsnyder
3B- Devers
SS- Story/Rafaela
2B- Grissom/Campbell
1B- Casas
C- Wong/ X
DH- rotation of whoever is not in the OF through rotation, Romy, Devers and Casas

That's your 13 positional players right there. I know that a heavy rotation and platoon might work but I also hate to sit guys when they're in a groove (which Cora does too often IMO). I can see how it would work and be really good against any AL team assuming Soto ends up in the NL
This is the core of the argument for trading Abreu/Duran (or I guess Grissom, but I think you'd be selling very low there). We just don't have enough space to let everyone do their jobs, if our top prospects don't all flame out.
 

LogansDad

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Can the Sox actually say, promote both Campbell and Anthony while not getting rid of Grissom and get enough quality AB's for everyone?
Assuming no other deals for offensive players-
LF- Anthony/Duran
CF- Duran/Rafaela
RF- Abreu/Refsnyder
3B- Devers
SS- Story/Rafaela
2B- Grissom/Campbell
1B- Casas
C- Wong/ X
DH- rotation of whoever is not in the OF through rotation, Romy, Devers and Casas

That's your 13 positional players right there. I know that a heavy rotation and platoon might work but I also hate to sit guys when they're in a groove (which Cora does too often IMO). I can see how it would work and be really good against any AL team assuming Soto ends up in the NL
Well, the DH is Yoshida. I think this is tenable, but I would much rather that, instead of a platoon situation, they treat it more like an "everyone plays three out of four games" situation between Abreu, Grissom, Campbell and Anthony. The only way Abreu and Anthony are going to improve against LHP is to face LHP. You simply have to live with the growing pains of it at some point, otherwise you are selling both your team and the player short.
 

GB5

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If we are signing Bregman it seems assumed that we move Devers to 1st and Casas to DH. Shoukdnt it be the other way around? Why the theory that Devers would be a better 1B than Casas?
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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If we are signing Bregman it seems assumed that we move Devers to 1st and Casas to DH. Shoukdnt it be the other way around? Why the theory that Devers would be a better 1B than Casas?
I'd think Bregman would be the best at playing both corner positions and DH full time (move on from Yoshida) if they sign him. I doubt they do. But a Casas/Bregman/Devers corner IF/DH platoon would be nice. I just dont like the contract Bregman will likely get
 

jacklamabe65

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Can the Sox actually say, promote both Campbell and Anthony while not getting rid of Grissom and get enough quality AB's for everyone?
Assuming no other deals for offensive players-
LF- Anthony/Duran
CF- Duran/Rafaela
RF- Abreu/Refsnyder
3B- Devers
SS- Story/Rafaela
2B- Grissom/Campbell
1B- Casas
C- Wong/ X
DH- rotation of whoever is not in the OF through rotation, Romy, Devers and Casas

That's your 13 positional players right there. I know that a heavy rotation and platoon might work but I also hate to sit guys when they're in a groove (which Cora does too often IMO). I can see how it would work and be really good against any AL team assuming Soto ends up in the NL
This is actually where I am at. That - and signing two quality starters plus another reliever.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Thoughts on a pivot to Santander if we lose out on Soto and Teo.
He's a terrible fit for Fenway, you wouldn't be getting nearly the hitter he was this year.
Not for nothing, but I'd be "for it" in that I think that's about the type of player / contract that the Sox will be in play for.

There are other avenues I'd prefer first, but I put Santander into a kind of a "3rd tier" bucket of how I view the off-season from an offensive standpoint.

Tier 1 - Soto
Tier 2 - Acquiring a good defensive 3b while moving Raffy to DH and getting rid of Yoshida for whatever you can.
Tier 3 - Getting someone in the Hernandez / Santander / CWalker grouping

Tier 57 - Running it back with pretty much exactly what you have / had. I don't think what they have in house is nearly good enough to even be a serious contender for WC1.


As to your point @simplicio on Santander and Fenway, it's an interesting one and I get where you're coming from. But isn't Fenway pretty much always going to play like that because it's more of a doubles park than a home run park, because the Wall is almost always going to turn line drive home runs into singles and doubles (but will turn more "outs" into "hits"). Which at another level is why I think the "three true outcomes" mindset up and down a line up will never work in Boston, but that is for another thread.

Just for a quick glance, lets look at Mookie (just as a baseball player, not from a perspective of the trade which shall not be named) and JD Martinez. Two hitters that did incredibly well as Boston Red Sox. All data shows the season HR totals (actual) first and the expected home runs by park (Fenway) second.

Mookie Betts
2016 - 31 / 27
2017 - 24 / 16
2018 - 33 / 31
2019 - 29 / 30
2020 - 18 / 15
2021 - 24 / 21
2022 - 35 / 28
2023 - 39 / 28
2024 - 23 / 21

JDM
2016 - 22 / 15
2017 - 46 / 35
2018 - 46 / 38
2019 - 36 / 34
2020 - 7 / 7
2021 - 31 / 27
2022 - 16 / 16
2023 - 34 / 27
2024 - 16 / 12

Soto
2018 - 22 / 13
2019 - 39 / 29
2020 - 13 / 12
2021 - 29 / 24
2022 - 29 / 29
2023 - 35 /28
2024 - 45 / 45

Ortiz (we only have one year of data)
2016 - 38 / 32 (but would have been 50 expected in NY, 51 in Houston, 52 in Texas, 52 in Cincy, 54 in LA and 51 in SD)


I think people need to look at a lot more than expected home run and baseball savant data to determine how well someone's profile is going to play at Fenway Park, or better yet as a reason to say they're not a good fit. Because if one uses expected stats (relative to home run overlay) pretty much all players are going to look like bad fits for Fenway Park, including two that had a ton of success here and one that we all think will. It also showed (in its one year of data) that arguably the most important player in Red Sox history and a first ballot hall of famer was a much worse fit for Fenway Park than plenty of other stadiums. I'm very thankful we had him though.

(I also want to be clear that I'm not saying you're only looking at expected HR @simplicio, I don't know the data you're using, it could be things far different from baseball savant and expected HR totals, and for all I know, Santander COULD be an awful fit for Fenway. I'm just assuming that the front office is looking at a ton of stuff that we don't have access to that goes light years beyond baseball savant data. I was just using your insight as a jumping off point for a larger discussion of how Fenway is going to play to suppress the home runs of most players, including ones that have in fact been excellent fits playing at Fenway Park).
 

finnVT

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Can the Sox actually say, promote both Campbell and Anthony while not getting rid of Grissom and get enough quality AB's for everyone?
Assuming no other deals for offensive players-
LF- Anthony/Duran
CF- Duran/Rafaela
RF- Abreu/Refsnyder
3B- Devers
SS- Story/Rafaela
2B- Grissom/Campbell
1B- Casas
C- Wong/ X
DH- rotation of whoever is not in the OF through rotation, Romy, Devers and Casas

That's your 13 positional players right there. I know that a heavy rotation and platoon might work but I also hate to sit guys when they're in a groove (which Cora does too often IMO). I can see how it would work and be really good against any AL team assuming Soto ends up in the NL
I'm not sure that lineup gets you into playoff contention, barring a lot of pitching upgrades, or the rookies breaking out to a greater extent than rookies typically do. As a reference, this is basically the lineup that the Steamer projections assume at this point, which pegs the position players around 22 WAR total. Assuming the team WAR target is 42-47 (which translates to 90-95 wins), then you're looking to add 20-25 WAR from pitching. Steamer projections post-Chapman are basically sitting around 15-16. So then the question is how do you add 5+ WAR to the pitching staff? Fried, Burnes or Crochet could each probably reasonably be expected add ~3 WAR (depending on how much you'd lose from the roster in acquiring Crochet), so if you can manage to add two of them, then I think you can be reasonably content with this lineup, but that feels like a long shot at this point.

There's a lot of caveats there-- Steamer has pretty optimistic projections for Campbell, but is pretty middling for Anthony, so maybe you get more value there than expected. Maybe Story bounces back better than they project. Maybe Duran goes absolutely crazy again. But pinning playoff hopes on those things happening, and no one else underperforming, feels like a big risk, and I'm not sure there's a likely path to improving the pitching staff enough to cover it. Obviously Soto changes this calculus a lot. If that fails, adding another OF/DH upgrade would go a long way. Upgrading from Wong (even if it's just Carson Kelly) would help a lot, as he looks like a big black hole right now. There's certainly upside there given the amount of youth in the lineup, and I think that's a nice multi-year lineup forecast, but I'm not sure it'll be competitive enough this year without a few more additions.
 

SouthernBoSox

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I'm not sure that lineup gets you into playoff contention, barring a lot of pitching upgrades, or the rookies breaking out to a greater extent than rookies typically do. As a reference, this is basically the lineup that the Steamer projections assume at this point, which pegs the position players around 22 WAR total. Assuming the team WAR target is 42-47 (which translates to 90-95 wins), then you're looking to add 20-25 WAR from pitching. Steamer projections post-Chapman are basically sitting around 15-16. So then the question is how do you add 5+ WAR to the pitching staff? Fried, Burnes or Crochet could each probably reasonably be expected add ~3 WAR (depending on how much you'd lose from the roster in acquiring Crochet), so if you can manage to add two of them, then I think you can be reasonably content with this lineup, but that feels like a long shot at this point.

There's a lot of caveats there-- Steamer has pretty optimistic projections for Campbell, but is pretty middling for Anthony, so maybe you get more value there than expected. Maybe Story bounces back better than they project. Maybe Duran goes absolutely crazy again. But pinning playoff hopes on those things happening, and no one else underperforming, feels like a big risk, and I'm not sure there's a likely path to improving the pitching staff enough to cover it. Obviously Soto changes this calculus a lot. If that fails, adding another OF/DH upgrade would go a long way. Upgrading from Wong (even if it's just Carson Kelly) would help a lot, as he looks like a big black hole right now. There's certainly upside there given the amount of youth in the lineup, and I think that's a nice multi-year lineup forecast, but I'm not sure it'll be competitive enough this year without a few more additions.
These are the streamer WAR projections with some IP data. Going from Criswell, Fitts, and Bernardino to Fried, Crochett, and Hoffman gets you to 5+

92738
 

finnVT

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These are the streamer WAR projections with some IP data. Going from Criswell, Fitts, and Bernardino to Fried, Crochett, and Hoffman gets you to 5+

View attachment 92738
Yeah, that's a nice breakdown, and basically matches my thoughts-- if you can add two of the big SP options, then I think things look pretty good. My concern with the lineup is based on skepticism that's possible, but we'll see! I'm also assuming you at least have to replace Abreu's WAR (and maybe others) to get Crochet, not sure if this has that cost baked in or not.
 

Cassvt2023

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If we are signing Bregman it seems assumed that we move Devers to 1st and Casas to DH. Shouldnt it be the other way around? Why the theory that Devers would be a better 1B than Casas?
No. If they sign Bregman or Adames, as Alex Speier said would be the pivot if they don't get Soto, I think it'd mean that guy would play 2B. They aren't moving Raffy off 3B to play DH 2 years into an 11 year deal. This could lead to a Grissom trade for pitching and Campbell in the OF or all over the field as a super U
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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No. If they sign Bregman or Adames, as Alex Speier said would be the pivot if they don't get Soto, I think it'd mean that guy would play 2B. They aren't moving Raffy off 3B to play DH 2 years into an 11 year deal. This could lead to a Grissom trade for pitching and Campbell in the OF or all over the field as a super U
They should. I've outlined this before, but on two of the Red Sox WS winning teams, the DH was in fact the highest paid position player (Ortiz in 2013 and JDM in 2018). The idea that you can't pay a premium to a DH only (or DH primary because I think Raffy would play SOME in the field in this scenario) and be an incredibly successful team is a fallacy that people have somehow talked themselves into. Quite the contrary, I think big market teams (of which the Red Sox should act like one) should pay a premium for an elite DH and get in to trouble when they don't do that. Yoshida is not an elite DH and probably never will be. He also can't play in the field. Raffy I think would be an elite DH and be close to worth his contract if he became a JDM type force as a DH - which I think is well within the range of outcomes.

Doesn't mean Yoshida sucks. Means his is a horribly miscast fit (as a DH only that can't play the field at all and is good against RHP but certainly not elite) for the Boston Red Sox.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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If we are signing Bregman it seems assumed that we move Devers to 1st and Casas to DH. Shoukdnt it be the other way around? Why the theory that Devers would be a better 1B than Casas?
I suspect that that move is being motivated by money rather than talent. As in, Devers is paid too much to just DH so moving him to 1B and hoping he turns into a better defender than Casas would better justify his salary. Or something.
 

RS2004foreever

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From Olney this morning - make of it what you will:
In the Red Sox's internal talks, there has been a belief expressed that with the right move, Boston will be positioned to make the playoffs next year and contend for a division title
 

Dewey'sCannon

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Signing Soto is the obvious first choice to upgrade the lineup.

If they can't do that, then I hope they stay away from some of the other options being floated like Bregman, Adames or Arenado - I just don't think they are going to be close to worth the money they will be getting over the next several years, and I think they have sufficient internal IF options that would make such a move unnecessary and wasteful, unless they are moving some of the internal IF assets in a trade for a top SP. But I am not in favor of moving either Casas or Campbell in such a trade.

I don't think Santander seems like a fit (especially for the years and $$ he will likely command) but could see maybe a fit for Teoscar (who I think is still likely to stay with the Dodgers), although that probably also necessitates a trade. I'd be more comfortable moving Abreu and/or Rafaela and other prospects than I would Casas or Campbell (or Anthony or Teel). I'd listen on Mayer, but only if he was the predominant or only piece for a top SP - although my preference would be to keep him and just sign a FA SP instead, especially if they are not spending big $$ on Soto.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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From Olney this morning - make of it what you will:
Absolutely. Wonder what we'll have to give up with Yoshida to get Ramirez, Clase and Bibee from Cleveland. Because with that one move, Boston would absolutely contend for the division.

(I'm mocking the idea of there being one move to contend for the division, not you @RS2004foreever, to be clear. I also don't believe there is any chance Theo - and by extension Breslow - thinks this).
 

simplicio

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Not for nothing, but I'd be "for it" in that I think that's about the type of player / contract that the Sox will be in play for.

There are other avenues I'd prefer first, but I put Santander into a kind of a "3rd tier" bucket of how I view the off-season from an offensive standpoint.

Tier 1 - Soto
Tier 2 - Acquiring a good defensive 3b while moving Raffy to DH and getting rid of Yoshida for whatever you can.
Tier 3 - Getting someone in the Hernandez / Santander / CWalker grouping

Tier 57 - Running it back with pretty much exactly what you have / had. I don't think what they have in house is nearly good enough to even be a serious contender for WC1.


As to your point @simplicio on Santander and Fenway, it's an interesting one and I get where you're coming from. But isn't Fenway pretty much always going to play like that because it's more of a doubles park than a home run park, because the Wall is almost always going to turn line drive home runs into singles and doubles (but will turn more "outs" into "hits"). Which at another level is why I think the "three true outcomes" mindset up and down a line up will never work in Boston, but that is for another thread.

Just for a quick glance, lets look at Mookie (just as a baseball player, not from a perspective of the trade which shall not be named) and JD Martinez. Two hitters that did incredibly well as Boston Red Sox. All data shows the season HR totals (actual) first and the expected home runs by park (Fenway) second.

Mookie Betts
2016 - 31 / 27
2017 - 24 / 16
2018 - 33 / 31
2019 - 29 / 30
2020 - 18 / 15
2021 - 24 / 21
2022 - 35 / 28
2023 - 39 / 28
2024 - 23 / 21

JDM
2016 - 22 / 15
2017 - 46 / 35
2018 - 46 / 38
2019 - 36 / 34
2020 - 7 / 7
2021 - 31 / 27
2022 - 16 / 16
2023 - 34 / 27
2024 - 16 / 12

Soto
2018 - 22 / 13
2019 - 39 / 29
2020 - 13 / 12
2021 - 29 / 24
2022 - 29 / 29
2023 - 35 /28
2024 - 45 / 45

Ortiz (we only have one year of data)
2016 - 38 / 32 (but would have been 50 expected in NY, 51 in Houston, 52 in Texas, 52 in Cincy, 54 in LA and 51 in SD)


I think people need to look at a lot more than expected home run and baseball savant data to determine how well someone's profile is going to play at Fenway Park, or better yet as a reason to say they're not a good fit. Because if one uses expected stats (relative to home run overlay) pretty much all players are going to look like bad fits for Fenway Park, including two that had a ton of success here and one that we all think will. It also showed (in its one year of data) that arguably the most important player in Red Sox history and a first ballot hall of famer was a much worse fit for Fenway Park than plenty of other stadiums. I'm very thankful we had him though.

(I also want to be clear that I'm not saying you're only looking at expected HR @simplicio, I don't know the data you're using, it could be things far different from baseball savant and expected HR totals, and for all I know, Santander COULD be an awful fit for Fenway. I'm just assuming that the front office is looking at a ton of stuff that we don't have access to that goes light years beyond baseball savant data. I was just using your insight as a jumping off point for a larger discussion of how Fenway is going to play to suppress the home runs of most players, including ones that have in fact been excellent fits playing at Fenway Park).
With Santander specifically, he had the lowest BABIP among qualified hitters this year because he's such an extreme fly ball guy (easily first at 54.8%, with only two other people above 50) and tied for last in LD rate (14.4%). He's also not a hard contact monster, with 13th highest soft contact%, 8th highest IFFB% and 4th worst infield hit% cause on top of the IFFB problem he's very slow.

That sounds like a profile that could use the monster, except he's a pull hitter and he's going to be batting left the majority of the time, plus his profile batting right is worse than his overall line: LD drops to 11%, FB to 50%, GB takes a big jump to 38%.

Obviously he'd try to adjust to better use the park if he was a Red Sox, I just think his natural profile is far better served in Baltimore, which in a lot of ways is kind of a mirror image of Fenway.
 
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Sox Pride

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Absolutely. Wonder what we'll have to give up with Yoshida to get Ramirez, Clase and Bibee from Cleveland. Because with that one move, Boston would absolutely contend for the division.

(I'm mocking the idea of there being one move to contend for the division, not you @RS2004foreever, to be clear. I also don't believe there is any chance Theo - and by extension Breslow - thinks this).
That would be a good move though :)

I wanted to add a (s) to Buster's assertion about the front office beliefs but I like the way you think.

We all want a frontline starter brought onboard.

Not sure about signing Bregman vs Adames and moving Devers to DH.
Might make sense in a vacuum but how amenable is he to that.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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With Santander specifically, he had the lowest BABIP among qualified hitters this year because he's such an extreme fly ball guy (easily first at 54.8%, with only two other people above 50) and tied for last in LD rate (14.4%). He's also not a hard contact monster, with 13th highest soft contact%, 8th highest IFFB% and 4th worst infield hit% cause on top of the IFFB problem he's very slow.

That sounds like a profile that could use the monster, except he's a pull hitter and he's going to be batting left the majority of the time, plus his profile batting right is worse than his overall line: LD drops to 11%, FB to 50%, GB takes a big jump to 38%.

Obviously he'd try to adjust to better use the park if he was a Red Sox, I just think his natural profile is far better served in Baltimore, which in a lot of ways is kind of a mirror image of Baltimore.
Makes total sense - and fwiw, I'm just kind of using him as a "tier" and admittedly haven't looked into every player in that tier specifically. Maybe it's Hernandez or CWalker or Santander or Kim or...

I'm genuinely curious - and I don't know - if there is a way to translate not HR, specifically, but what fly balls would become "hits" in Fenway Park as opposed to "outs" in others. Savant (and again, I think they're looking at much more than this) only shows a hits overlay. I'd be curious as to the "outs" that turn into singles and doubles, especially from the RH side. Not just for Santander, but for any hitter, is there a site on which someone can do this for themselves.

As I've said, there are a lot of moves I'd prefer first (and if not Soto, I really hope it's 3b so that Raffy becomes DH). Though I also drastically prefer making Santander the DH, jettisoning Yoshida and calling that the offense than running back what they have.


That would be a good move though :)

I wanted to add a (s) to Buster's assertion about the front office beliefs but I like the way you think.

We all want a frontline starter brought onboard.

Not sure about signing Bregman vs Adames and moving Devers to DH.
Might make sense in a vacuum but how amenable is he to that.
It would be pretty sweet...


How amenable is Devers - I've never spoke to him, so I have no idea. All I have to go on are public comments. That said, he has been one of the most vocal players on the team about desperately wanting them to add and not thinking they have nearly enough. From the things we've seen his agent talks about him being a 3b and all that good stuff, which of course an agent is going to say - coming out and saying "yeah, my client sucks at 3b and should be moved to DH" is a pretty good recipe for getting fired, no.

I would think it's all a question of how it is presented.


Example 1 - "Raffy, you clearly stink at 3b, look at all the data. Go DH" would be taken incredibly poorly.


Example 2 - "Raffy, we tried to get Soto, and he stayed with the Yankees. We tried to land Teoscar but he went back to the Dodgers. Basically 95% of the time, we don't spend on big money free agent pitchers over 30, so neither Fried nor Burnes are joining this team. We're not going to win another title with a DH only slot filled by someone that can't hit for power, and I bet you realize that. So we have a couple of options that we want to get your input on because you're the best player on our team and the face of our franchise.

Option 1 - We bring back Tyler O'Neill, roll it back with what we have, and realistically cap out around 84 wins. Maybe that gets us into WC3 range, but probably not. But good news - we think there is no chance that our prospects are Yoan Moncada, Jurickson Profar or Jared Kelenic and if every single thing goes right maybe we get to 84 wins. Maybe Nate comes back and we get to 86 wins. Yay.


Option 2 - Willy Adames (whom I''ll assume he has a decent enough relationship with as a fellow Dominican) or multiple time world champion Alex Bregman is interested in coming here and playing 3b. This would give us a more balanced line up and allow us to make a big addition to take some of the weight off your shoulders - both literally and figuratively. You've already been paid the largest contract in Red Sox history and we think that if you were able to focus on nothing but hitting AND reduce the wear and tear on your body, you could be this generation's version of David Ortiz. Another 2 WS titles and a first ballot hall of fame selection could be in the cards. Would you be amenable to moving to DH so that we can have a middle of the line up that features you, Casas and Adames / Bregman for the next 5 seasons.

We can still go get Eovaldi, and we think that getting similarly excellent production to which you provide and moving our DH production from Yoshida to "David Ort... I mean THIS GENERATION'S David Ortiz" gets us a lot closer to 90 wins and back to consistently competing for world series play every year. Are you ok with being David Ortiz for a new generation of Bostonians and Dominicans so that we can drastically upgrade the team around you?

(I bet he says yes.)

I also really like Kim for a 3b option, FWIW, and think he might be a better fit overall than Adames (personally I go Bregman / Kim / Adames / Arenado if you can move Yoshida as part of the deal). Mostly I just want a) the infield improved beyond - no, THIS is the year Story will be healthy and b) Yoshida replaced with an actual impactful DH.
 
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Cassvt2023

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With Santander specifically, he had the lowest BABIP among qualified hitters this year because he's such an extreme fly ball guy (easily first at 54.8%, with only two other people above 50) and tied for last in LD rate (14.4%). He's also not a hard contact monster, with 13th highest soft contact%, 8th highest IFFB% and 4th worst infield hit% cause on top of the IFFB problem he's very slow.

That sounds like a profile that could use the monster, except he's a pull hitter and he's going to be batting left the majority of the time, plus his profile batting right is worse than his overall line: LD drops to 11%, FB to 50%, GB takes a big jump to 38%.

Obviously he'd try to adjust to better use the park if he was a Red Sox, I just think his natural profile is far better served in Baltimore, which in a lot of ways is kind of a mirror image of Baltimore.
I simply hate his low OBP and his high K's. The Red Sox Sox lineup, especially at Fenway, works best when the line keeps moving and they see a lot of pitches and pound doubles and get into other team's bullpen early. Not rocket science.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I simply hate his low OBP and his high K's. The Red Sox Sox lineup, especially at Fenway, works best when the line keeps moving and they see a lot of pitches and pound doubles and get into other team's bullpen early. Not rocket science.
The only guy that I really kinda sorta would like as an addition would be Bregman- assuming Soto is a no-go. Yeah, I like Teoscar but not at the expense of Abreu and/or playing time for Montgomery... and then the DH wouldn't really be utilized the best way. With Bregman at least, it gives you a guy who can likely play at both corners (and I'd rather him there than Devers) and the DH is utilized mostly between him, Devers and Casas. You keep Devers sharp in the lineup (the DH penalty has been discussed plenty) by still keeping him in the field plenty enough.... but really, Soto just solves too many problems. Pay him damnit!
 

BaseballJones

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1. Soto (or Teoscar as a backup plan)
2. Eovaldi and/or Fried (both if possible; gotta have at least one good SP this offseason)
3. Trade Yoshida + $$ for prospects
4. Elevate Campbell and Anthony as soon as possible
5. Healthy Story and Grissom
6. Win a lot of baseball games
 

Yo La Tengo

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Option 2 - Willy Adames (whom I''ll assume he has a decent enough relationship with as a fellow Dominican) or multiple time world champion Alex Bregman is interested in coming here and playing 3b. This would give us a more balanced line up and allow us to make a big addition to take some of the weight off your shoulders - both literally and figuratively. You've already been paid the largest contract in Red Sox history and we think that if you were able to focus on nothing but hitting AND reduce the wear and tear on your body, you could be this generation's version of David Ortiz. Another 2 WS titles and a first ballot hall of fame selection could be in the cards. Would you be amenable to moving to DH so that we can have a middle of the line up that features you, Casas and Adames / Bregman for the next 5 seasons.

(I bet he says yes.)
OPS and OPS+ over the last two years:

Yoshida .776 and 111
Adames .755 and 106

[Edited to add that Bregman was at .768 and 118+ last year, with both numbers on the decline, and he will be entering his age 31 season.]

There will be a time when Devers will move from third base. But spending a huge amount of money now to pay Adames, to play a position he's never played before, as he moves into the decline phase of his career, and pay more money to trade Yoshida for cents on the dollar, and thereby block the young players who are coming up in the system, and tie up payroll for several years, for a marginal improvement... seems like a bad move.

If Soto goes elsewhere, just sign some good pitchers.
 
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Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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OPS and OPS+ over the last two years:

Yoshida .776 and 111
Adames .755 and 106

There will be a time when Devers will move from third base. But spending a huge amount of money now to pay Adames, to play a position he's never played before, as he moves into the decline phase of his career, and pay more money to trade Yoshida for cents on the dollar, and thereby block the young players who are coming up in the system, and tie up payroll for several years, for a marginal improvement... seems like a bad move.
Not for nothing, but I did include that Adames would be my third choice (personally) behind Bregman, Kim and then Adames.

However, yes, it is a leap of faith that someone could switch positions, but someone that has consistently been a positive dWAR shortshop with good arm strength moving to 3b doesn't seem that much of a stretch. It's not like you're asking someone to move to a more demanding defensive position or make a totally unrelated change (ie putting Hanley in LF).

But my point is that you'd be getting positive contributions at 3b both offensively AND defensively and improving at DH from Yoshida to Raffy. If Yoshida could play a credible 3b (or there was any reason to believe he could) then I'd be totally advocating to move Yoshida to 3b where a 111 OPS bat would be incredibly valuable because his suck against RHP and no power would be strongly mitigated by playing a good 3b and he'd be remarkably valuable. As a platoon DH, I don't think it's valuable at all.

(If Adames were a DH only, I'd have zero interest in him, fwiw).
 

RS2004foreever

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No Teoscar. I choose to believe that this means we are signing Soto. Please respect my faith as you do other religious beliefs, no matter how absurd.
Boston Sports Gordo
@BOSSportsGordo


Teoscar Hernandez is hammering out the final details of a contract to return to the Los Angeles Dodgers, according to
@THEREAL_DV
.
 
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Yo La Tengo

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Not for nothing, but I did include that Adames would be my third choice (personally) behind Bregman, Kim and then Adames.
I added Bregman's offensive numbers from last year to my original post (there were not drastically better than Yoshida). How valuable would the improvement at 3B defense have to be to justify a 6 year/160 million dollar contract with minimal net offensive improvement? Again, with both Bregman and Adames entering into the decline phase of their careers? Plus losing a draft pick due to the QO for each. It seems like a terrible allocation of resources, especially with the number of prospects who will need to find places to play over the next few years.

[Kim has a shoulder injury and is likely to miss spring training... no thanks.]
 

The Filthy One

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There are some other things the team could do to upgrade, but I have trouble seeing how any of them end up greatly upgrading the offense specifically. They could, for instance, sign Adames/Bregman, move Devers to DH, sign Pete Alonso, and trade Casas for pitching. Feels kind of like a lateral move to me on the offensive side (for all his home runs, Alonso only posted a 123 OPS+ the last two years; Casas was at 120 last year and 129 in 2023). The team would get older in some spots, but that's maybe offset by hanging onto all the high minors talent.
 

iddoc

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I added Bregman's offensive numbers from last year to my original post (there were not drastically better than Yoshida). How valuable would the improvement at 3B defense have to be to justify a 6 year/160 million dollar contract with minimal net offensive improvement? Again, with both Bregman and Adames entering into the decline phase of their careers? Plus losing a draft pick due to the QO for each. It seems like a terrible allocation of resources, especially with the number of prospects who will need to find places to play over the next few years.

[Kim has a shoulder injury and is likely to miss spring training... no thanks.]
I don't understand the interest in Bregman and Adames, given their age, expected decline, and likely cost, unless the Red Sox really want to move Devers off 3B. I don't think it makes sense to sign either of those guys for 2B; Grissom looked good in September and I would be happy to roll with him, plus that is a potential landing spot for Campbell.
 

RS2004foreever

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Right-hander Luis Severino and the Athletics are in agreement on a three-year, $67 million free agent contract that is the largest guarantee in the franchise's history, sources told ESPN on Thursday.

Damn pitching is expensive. Is he really all that much better than Pivetta?
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Right-hander Luis Severino and the Athletics are in agreement on a three-year, $67 million free agent contract that is the largest guarantee in the franchise's history, sources told ESPN on Thursday.

Damn pitching is expensive. Is he really all that much better than Pivetta?
Damn. Well I'm glad the A's are spending. $22.3M AAV isn't all that much. When Severino is good, he's really good. Pivetta too, but out of the two, I'd go with Severino over Pivetta. I imagine Nick will get somewhere south of that- likely around 3/$45-$50M
 

Cassvt2023

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Damn. Well I'm glad the A's are spending. $22.3M AAV isn't all that much. When Severino is good, he's really good. Pivetta too, but out of the two, I'd go with Severino over Pivetta. I imagine Nick will get somewhere south of that- likely around 3/$45-$50M
Pivetta is 1 year older, I was surprised by that. It seems like Severino has been around forever. Did he come with a QO like Nick does?
 

moondog80

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If that's what 3 years of Severino costs, Kutter Crawford at 4 years before FA would have some nice trade value. You could tack Crawford onto Yoshida, not send any $, and get a lottery ticket or two in return.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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If that's what 3 years of Severino costs, Kutter Crawford at 4 years before FA would have some nice trade value. You could tack Crawford onto Yoshida, not send any $, and get a lottery ticket or two in return.
The problem with that is that other teams have 2 or 3 Kutter Crawford's at the back end of their rotations too.
I mean... I think both a shit ton of us here and I think the Sox can look past his ERA, W-L record and see his impressive peripherals and where he will likely, hopefully improve to be a very valuable mid rotation type, but that HR rate is a strong card to play in negotiations for dealing with other teams. I think Crawford's best value still is still with the Sox... very similarly to Casas. Other teams are likely undervaluing both right now (not advocating dealing Casas at all, BTW). Severino has had several seasons of very good production. Crawford hasn't... at all.
 

Hank Scorpio

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If Severino repeats his 1.6 WAR performance of 2024, the A's are essentially paying him $13.75M per WAR, which isn't very great.

But on the flip side, if Severino puts up a -1.5 WAR like he did in 2023, then he's paying the A's $14.67M per WAR. Could wind up being a great deal for the A's! #Moneyball