Much like Newman, the Sox are not “Ready to deliver”– The 2025 Offseason News (& rumors?) Thread

E5 Yaz

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I mean do you think a projection system that has Frank German throwing 40 innings for the 2025 sox as quality data? this isnt "bad" because its data I do not like, its bad because its actually using a shitty data source

Frank German was released in MARCH of 2024....

That shows they have zero QA before making those predictions live. and I expected better than this from BP... That makes this unreliable and something that cant be trusted (at this point)
You missed the point. Posters are quick to discredit any projection that comes off as a negative warranted or not while relying on good projections to buttress their arguments
 

SouthernBoSox

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You missed the point. Posters are quick to discredit any projection that comes off as a negative warranted or not while relying on good projections to buttress their arguments
When it takes 35 seconds of looking at a model to point out it has players who aren’t even in the organization is it not valid to voice those flaws?
 

snowmanny

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Only the bad projections
A reminder - a "bad" projection is one I disagree with.
Yes, that was the joke
I mean do you think a projection system that has Frank German throwing 40 innings for the 2025 sox as quality data? this isnt "bad" because its data I do not like, its bad because its actually using a shitty data source

Frank German was released in MARCH of 2024....

That shows they have zero QA before making those predictions live. and I expected better than this from BP... That makes this unreliable and something that cant be trusted (at this point)
You missed the point. Posters are quick to discredit any projection that comes off as a negative warranted or not while relying on good projections to buttress their arguments
I think I am starting to understand. Please elaborate.
 

20Ks

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@8slim will have to do that for you
I'm not so much puzzled with the outcome then the input. Crochet projected @ 129IP after he pitched 146 last year and was on pace for 200 before they basically shut him down. But Buehler who pitched 65 coming off injury is projected for 135. I'm more interested in that modeling.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Pivetta to Baltimore or Cleveland makes too much sense to me. I could easily see Pivetta working with the Cleveland crew turning into a bonafide ace. Baltimore just needs someone... even Pivetta settling into a "no. 3" type there would go a long ways towards putting them back over the Sox IMO.
Unless he's asking for something ridiculous I can't imagine there weren't any 3/$45M deals out there for him back in December
 

simplicio

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I'm not so much puzzled with the outcome then the input. Crochet projected @ 129IP after he pitched 146 last year and was on pace for 200 before they basically shut him down. But Buehler who pitched 65 coming off injury is projected for 135. I'm more interested in that modeling.
The reason projections are useless is they aren't indivualized and don't take context into consideration. They're a system that appears to work backwards distributing value from league-wide output. They see Crochet and Buehler as sums of their career lines, probably weighted toward more recent years. That data's pushing Buehler up and Crochet down, and logic has nothing to do with it.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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Some more discussion of a divide in the Red Sox brass from McAdam:

We have heard the idea that Cora wants to bring in someone (like Bregman) while Breslow is more cautious before, but this is the first I remember hearing about Kennedy being Team Alex and Henry and Werner being Team Craig. Makes me a little nervous to think about factions pulling in different directions, as it seems a recipe for muddled decisions.
I read this comment from McAdam, and its suggestion that Sam Kennedy is flexing his opinions and goals for the Red Sox in opposition to not just Craig Breslow but also John Henry and Tom Werner, and I laughed, and I laughed, and I laughed. And then I laughed some more. Sam Kennedy doesn't order a sandwich without making sure Mr. Henry and Mr. Werner approve of mayo rather than mustard. Sam Kennedy hears "there's no there there" and dreams of having the kind of influence "there" does.
A small nit: McAdam didn't write this; Peter Abraham did in his weekly Baseball Notes in the Globe.
 

grimshaw

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Pecota is a very outdated model that was among the first to come out in 2003. Trying to figure out who is playing where and when is what makes it useless for a team like the Red Sox in particular. There isn't a lot of mystery with the Yankees and everyone on the Dodgers is good so of course they don't need to go conservative with them or be overly optimistic on rookies with the Sox.

My stance on projections is that rate stats are much more meaningful on the offensive side of things. Steamer goes a lot more in depth based on exit velocity, BABIP etc so I like to think they have some use. Yoshida and Grissom are some examples of potential improvements based on some of that.

Defensive stats are completely meaningless because they are coming out before a pitching staff is even fully assembled, or where outfielders are going to play. If it's a much more flyball oriented vs groundball or strikeout staff, that's going to impact any sort of projection. If Duran moves to left permanently, his numbers are going to go way down because you can only save so many runs with the wall in back of you. He saved 17 runs in 810 innings center and 6 in 611 in left. That's probably close to a win. I don't know if that's baked in or not, but it seems as though Rafaela is going to play a good deal of center (though I don't know how).

Projected win totals, I throw in the garbage, but I like Steamer to look for potential break out candidates or overachievers from the previous season.
 
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TomRicardo

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The reason projections are useless is they aren't individualized and don't take context into consideration. They're a system that appears to work backwards distributing value from league-wide output. They see Crochet and Buehler as sums of their career lines, probably weighted toward more recent years. That data's pushing Buehler up and Crochet down, and logic has nothing to do with it.
Projections aren't useless but they are not the end all be all. There is definitely a logic to them. They are built of historical trends. You laid out the logic in two sentences before.

The issue I think you are trying to point out, is this is a limited logic. Something like adding a new pitch or changing positions is not intrinsically added to the model. It is only using past data points in comparison to historical points. There is a ton of empirical data so long term projections eventually average out, in the short term however there can be some deviance. I think that is what you meant by context.

In the end you shouldn't just throw projections out because they are projections. There is information there and if you disagree the result you should be able to look and see what context was missed that makes you think the project is off. PECOTA does hate the hell out of this team and I would agree it is off but there are valid reason to not like this team looking through historical data sets. But as you said, that lacks some context hence difference.
 

TheDogMan

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Projections aren't useless but they are not the end all be all. There is definitely a logic to them. They are built of historical trends. You laid out the logic in two sentences before.

The issue I think you are trying to point out, is this is a limited logic. Something like adding a new pitch or changing positions is not intrinsically added to the model. It is only using past data points in comparison to historical points. There is a ton of empirical data so long term projections eventually average out, in the short term however there can be some deviance. I think that is what you meant by context.

In the end you shouldn't just throw projections out because they are projections. There is information there and if you disagree the result you should be able to look and see what context was missed that makes you think the project is off. PECOTA does hate the hell out of this team and I would agree it is off but there are valid reason to not like this team looking through historical data sets. But as you said, that lacks some context hence difference.
Not saying Pecota is wrong, but I take their and any body but Las Vegas odds makers opinions with a grain of salt. In Vegas, millions ride on their decisions so they work their buttons off to be right. Per Bet MGM the Sox gave the 5th best chance to win the pennant but are picked behind NY and Baltimore in the east.
 

mikcou

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Not saying Pecota is wrong, but I take their and any body but Las Vegas odds makers opinions with a grain of salt. In Vegas, millions ride on their decisions so they work their buttons off to be right. Per Bet MGM the Sox gave the 5th best chance to win the pennant but are picked behind NY and Baltimore in the east.
Its been pointed out previously, but oddsmakers need to price future deals (FA signings, trades, in season moves) in to their odds. Projection systems work off current rosters. That is in itself going to create significant differences between the two.

I suspect if the Sox go into the season without any roster moves, the win total and odds to win the pennant will both be lower (a similar thing occurred last year).
 

TheDogMan

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Its been pointed out previously, but oddsmakers need to price future deals (FA signings, trades, in season moves) in to their odds. Projection systems work off current rosters. That is in itself going to create significant differences between the two.

I suspect if the Sox go into the season without any roster moves, the win total and odds to win the pennant will both be lower (a similar thing occurred last year).
Yes, but at least Vegas thinks they will add a needed piece. I say let's go for it. Tatis and King for Arias, Anthony and Bleis, let the chips fall with Boston in the World Series. There, I said it!
 
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scottyno

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Its been pointed out previously, but oddsmakers need to price future deals (FA signings, trades, in season moves) in to their odds. Projection systems work off current rosters. That is in itself going to create significant differences between the two.

I suspect if the Sox go into the season without any roster moves, the win total and odds to win the pennant will both be lower (a similar thing occurred last year).
They're 8 wins apart, there's nearly no combo of moves any team could make at this point to gain or lose 8 projected wins
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Yes, but at least Vegas thinks they will add a needed piece. I say let's go for it. Tatis and King for Arias, Anthony and Bleis, let the chips fall with Boston in the World Series. There, I said it!
Just to show I don't just hold this against Red Sox guys, I'd rather have Anthony than Tatis.

In 2021 Tatis missed about 1.5 months, in 2022 he served a PED suspension, in 2023 he missed about a month, last year he missed about 2.5 months. Excellent player, but the profile of already missing a lot of games before even getting to 26 scares the crap out of me. Some guys grow out of it (Judge has) many do not (Buxton, Stanton, Trout, whatever). There are very few things I'd advocate moving Anthony (most of them aren't available anyway) for, and Tatis is not one of them.
 

mikcou

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They're 8 wins apart, there's nearly no combo of moves any team could make at this point to gain or lose 8 projected wins
I never said that there were; only that if they dont do anything before opening day total wins and odds for pennant/world series would go down. Im talking more about moving from 84.5 or so to 82.5/83.

PECOTA is obviously messed up for a number of the reasons already mentioned above.
 

20Ks

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Just to show I don't just hold this against Red Sox guys, I'd rather have Anthony than Tatis.

In 2021 Tatis missed about 1.5 months, in 2022 he served a PED suspension, in 2023 he missed about a month, last year he missed about 2.5 months. Excellent player, but the profile of already missing a lot of games before even getting to 26 scares the crap out of me. Some guys grow out of it (Judge has) many do not (Buxton, Stanton, Trout, whatever). There are very few things I'd advocate moving Anthony (most of them aren't available anyway) for, and Tatis is not one of them.
He's owed 10/270 and the drop in power after the PED suspension is concerning. As an excercise I think the only position players I would include in him would be Bobby Witt, Ketel Marte, Gunnar Henderson, Merril and Chourio. I might be missing someone, but its not a huge list.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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He's owed 10/270 and the drop in power after the PED suspension is concerning. As an excercise I think the only position players I would include in him would be Bobby Witt, Ketel Marte, Gunnar Henderson, Merril and Chourio. I might be missing someone, but its not a huge list.
Yeah, just for the exercise - not that it's at all feasible but what else do we have to talk about, right?

Witt.
Henderson.
Chourio.
YAlvarez (I adore him).
Julio Rodriguez.
Soto.

I think that's the list (position players), at least for me that's the entire list.
 

LogansDad

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Yeah, just for the exercise - not that it's at all feasible but what else do we have to talk about, right?

Witt.
Henderson.
Chourio.
YAlvarez (I adore him).
Julio Rodriguez.
Soto.

I think that's the list (position players), at least for me that's the entire list.
I think Kyle Tucker might make my list.

But it doesn't get much longer than that.
 

8slim

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Meanwhile in Mariner land...
Jerry Dipoto on Mariners’ offense:



https://bsky.app/profile/byadamjude.bsky.social/post/3lhcmu5hnyc2q
Ah yes, trying to sell your fans using WRC+. That'll get them fired up!

Meanwhile, in the land where scoring more runs than your opponent is what actually wins ballgames, the Mariners haven't been so great. Kinda crummy, in fact.

Last year they ranked 8 spots below league average. In 2023 they were two spots above. 2022 they were 1 spot below. 2021, 10 spots below.

But that WRC+ man, whoahhhh boy, it was generally above average! Hooray!!
 

scottyno

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Ah yes, trying to sell your fans using WRC+. That'll get them fired up!

Meanwhile, in the land where scoring more runs than your opponent is what actually wins ballgames, the Mariners haven't been so great. Kinda crummy, in fact.

Last year they ranked 8 spots below league average. In 2023 they were two spots above. 2022 they were 1 spot below. 2021, 10 spots below.

But that WRC+ man, whoahhhh boy, it was generally above average! Hooray!!
They were 12th in 2024, 10th in 2023, and 9th in 2022 in scoring more runs than your opponent
 

scottyno

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Because of their pitching. Their offense hasn't been good, and the GM is trying to suggest it is because WRC+.
Not really, their pitching is boosted by safeco as much as the offense is hindered by it, that's why park adjusted stats are a thing.

Pitching era+ 2022-24: 104 106 106

Batting ops+ 2022-24: 106 108 103
 

simplicio

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Their wrc+ has been good though. 12th/6th/8th the last three years.

Is the problem with the statement that it's not enough red meat for fans? Cause it's pretty much true.

They really knocked it out of the park getting Robles for nothing. We'll see if he can keep it up over a full season.
 

8slim

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Is the problem with the statement that it's not enough red meat for fans? Cause it's pretty much true.
I just found it funny to read a GM touting his offense with a formula:

(((wRAA per PA + league runs per PA) + (league runs per PA - ballpark factor x league runs per PA) / league wRC per plate appearance, not including pitchers)) x 100

Totally an easy thing for fans to hang their hat on. "Sure we keep winning fewer games than the season before, but have you done the math?!"

I'm being snarky, obviously. And I'm far from a luddite when it comes to advanced analytics. It's just that we're at a point in the game where one is expected to be highly fluent in a LOT of esoteric metrics to understand front office rationale. I find it to be a turn off. But YMMV, as they say.
 

YTF

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Just to show I don't just hold this against Red Sox guys, I'd rather have Anthony than Tatis.

In 2021 Tatis missed about 1.5 months, in 2022 he served a PED suspension, in 2023 he missed about a month, last year he missed about 2.5 months. Excellent player, but the profile of already missing a lot of games before even getting to 26 scares the crap out of me. Some guys grow out of it (Judge has) many do not (Buxton, Stanton, Trout, whatever). There are very few things I'd advocate moving Anthony (most of them aren't available anyway) for, and Tatis is not one of them.
Just to fine tune this a little bit. Fernando Tatis serving a PED suspension in 2022 doesn't quite tell the whole story. In the off season leading up to the '22 season Tatis broke his wrist in a motorcycle accident (a violation of the $340M contract he signed the previous season) and IIRC he wasn't totally upfront about the injury which cost him the first 102 games of that '22 season. It was during his rehab stint from that injury when he was hit with an 80 game PED suspension that resulted in him missing the rest of that season and the first 20 games of the '23. FWIW, in the '23 season Arizona finished just 2 games ahead of San Diego.That was the difference between the Padre's beginning their off-season and the D'Backs going to the playoffs. What's done is done and hopefully he's grown and learn from those incidents, but they are a part of his story.
 
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scottyno

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I just found it funny to read a GM touting his offense with a formula:

(((wRAA per PA + league runs per PA) + (league runs per PA - ballpark factor x league runs per PA) / league wRC per plate appearance, not including pitchers)) x 100

Totally an easy thing for fans to hang their hat on. "Sure we keep winning fewer games than the season before, but have you done the math?!"

I'm being snarky, obviously. And I'm far from a luddite when it comes to advanced analytics. It's just that we're at a point in the game where one is expected to be highly fluent in a LOT of esoteric metrics to understand front office rationale. I find it to be a turn off. But YMMV, as they say.
You don't need to understand wrc+ though, it's common sense that if you play in a pitchers park that your offense isn't as bad as they appear to be and your pitching isn't as good. Also all you really need to understand is that 100 is league average and it's park adjusted, no fan needs to be able to calculate any of that themselves.
 

soxhop411

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TheDogMan

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Just to show I don't just hold this against Red Sox guys, I'd rather have Anthony than Tatis.

In 2021 Tatis missed about 1.5 months, in 2022 he served a PED suspension, in 2023 he missed about a month, last year he missed about 2.5 months. Excellent player, but the profile of already missing a lot of games before even getting to 26 scares the crap out of me. Some guys grow out of it (Judge has) many do not (Buxton, Stanton, Trout, whatever). There are very few things I'd advocate moving Anthony (most of them aren't available anyway) for, and Tatis is not one of them.
That's fair, Anthony might become the player Tatis is, but that is a high bar for him to reach. Of course as you point out availability is a very important ability and Tatis is a question mark. I would hate to add another Chris Sale, Trevor Story, Marquis Grisom type. Just can not depend on guys who are hurt.
 
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scottyno

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But no change in their “predicted” win total.

they should just admit their data is junk. Since replacing those 40 innings that their formula associated with a pitcher that was released more than a year ago with someone who is actually in the organization should not result in the same win loss total they had this morning.
They also have houck projected as their 5th best starter. If houck is the 5th best starter on the team they're more likely to win 100 than 78
 

soxhop411

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They also have houck projected as their 5th best starter. If houck is the 5th best starter on the team they're more likely to win 100 than 78
I really want them to explain the formula behind this. Because the more we look the worse it gets. Like they just threw something together and said “this looks good!” I mean The monkey in @Reverend profile photo would have done a better job creating an actual formula than whatever Bp did.
 

burstnbloom

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I just found it funny to read a GM touting his offense with a formula:

(((wRAA per PA + league runs per PA) + (league runs per PA - ballpark factor x league runs per PA) / league wRC per plate appearance, not including pitchers)) x 100

Totally an easy thing for fans to hang their hat on. "Sure we keep winning fewer games than the season before, but have you done the math?!"

I'm being snarky, obviously. And I'm far from a luddite when it comes to advanced analytics. It's just that we're at a point in the game where one is expected to be highly fluent in a LOT of esoteric metrics to understand front office rationale. I find it to be a turn off. But YMMV, as they say.
Is your gripe the use of wRC+ in public communication from the front office or its use? I don't think its reasonable to expect front offices to use more flawed metrics than what they have available to them just to appease the masses. Every sport uses advanced data analytics to evaluate their talent, I don't really understand why fans expect these billion dollar businesses to dumb it down for them.
 

NoXInNixon

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I'm not going crazy over this, mind you, but its part of my concern. The Sox could have done better this offseason. They could have pushed hard to add more "reliable" front end talent in several spots. Instead they're largely relying on things breaking their way. That's fine, but it wasn't the only approach.
Remember, the team you have in April isn't the same as the team you take into September. The first third of the season is about figuring out what you have. With so many question marks on the roster, I think it's smart that they're giving themselves lots of flexibility. By May, we'll all have a much better idea of how healthy the infield will be, how good the bullpen is, which rookies look like studs, etc. Their needs will be more obvious, and they will have both the payroll flexibility and the prospects to make a major trade.
 

Fishy1

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Is your gripe the use of wRC+ in public communication from the front office or its use? I don't think its reasonable to expect front offices to use more flawed metrics than what they have available to them just to appease the masses. Every sport uses advanced data analytics to evaluate their talent, I don't really understand why fans expect these billion dollar businesses to dumb it down for them.
I think his gripe was principally with the way they are communicating. I know @8slim doesn't love a lot of advanced stats, and plenty of people on here would disagree with him about this, but I think he's got a point here.
 

8slim

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I think his gripe was principally with the way they are communicating. I know @8slim doesn't love a lot of advanced stats, and plenty of people on here would disagree with him about this, but I think he's got a point here.
It’s not that I hate advanced data writ large. Not at all. It’s that I hate it when people throw down a WAR or FIP in a discussion as if that singular number wins the debate.

In the case of DiPoto, you got it. Using historical WRC+ to placate fans who are (apparently) upset the team didn’t do more in the offseason is so silly and tone deaf. It really highlights the disconnect between how most fans follow the game and the formulas-centric, analytics-intensive way the homogenized front offices of baseball conduct their roster building and on field strategic approach.
 

Fishy1

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It’s not that I hate advanced data writ large. Not at all. It’s that I hate it when people throw down a WAR or FIP in a discussion as if that singular number wins the debate.

In the case of DiPoto, you got it. Using historical WRC+ to placate fans who are (apparently) upset the team didn’t do more in the offseason is so silly and tone deaf. It really highlights the disconnect between how most fans follow the game and the formulas-centric, analytics-intensive way the homogenized front offices of baseball conduct their roster building and on field strategic approach.
I know you don't, I should have made that more clear.
 

SouthernBoSox

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Does anyone know the official day players can be transferred to the 60 day?

I am expecting a pretty significant uptick in activity then.

I also think MLB really needs to add 2 injured reserved spots for the offseason.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Remember, the team you have in April isn't the same as the team you take into September. The first third of the season is about figuring out what you have. With so many question marks on the roster, I think it's smart that they're giving themselves lots of flexibility. By May, we'll all have a much better idea of how healthy the infield will be, how good the bullpen is, which rookies look like studs, etc. Their needs will be more obvious, and they will have both the payroll flexibility and the prospects to make a major trade.
This is where I think the Sox will make an impact RHH bat move. The most obvious decision- discussed in every thread here- is in some form moving around Devers, 2B and/or Yoshida. It would be foolish to just dump Grissom at this point and replace him with Campbell right out of the gate. Similarly it would be foolish just to add Bregman and move Raffy to DH... and figuring out how to deal with Yoshida then... and also Campbell again.
The best use of the remaining budget (assuming Crochet gets extended) would be to reserve that cash for a midseason addition- hoping that Yoshida is healthy and hitting and starting Campbell in AAA at the infield corners and hope (and I expect he will) show he can platoon with Casas and Devers and DH (eventually fully moving Devers to DH). But if Grissom isn't hitting or his defense is just terrible... or Story is reinjured again... then Campbell can slot in there. My suspicion is that this is exactly what Breslow is doing- betting on his prospects over a RHH outside the organization.
 

Jimbodandy

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This is where I think the Sox will make an impact RHH bat move. The most obvious decision- discussed in every thread here- is in some form moving around Devers, 2B and/or Yoshida. It would be foolish to just dump Grissom at this point and replace him with Campbell right out of the gate. Similarly it would be foolish just to add Bregman and move Raffy to DH... and figuring out how to deal with Yoshida then... and also Campbell again.
The best use of the remaining budget (assuming Crochet gets extended) would be to reserve that cash for a midseason addition- hoping that Yoshida is healthy and hitting and starting Campbell in AAA at the infield corners and hope (and I expect he will) show he can platoon with Casas and Devers and DH (eventually fully moving Devers to DH). But if Grissom isn't hitting or his defense is just terrible... or Story is reinjured again... then Campbell can slot in there. My suspicion is that this is exactly what Breslow is doing- betting on his prospects over a RHH outside the organization.
Agreed on this. The only downside of hedging with Campbell for injury/performance downside of Grissom & Story is that he's swapping out a RHB with an RHB. The biggest error bars right now are also RHB. I guess that we should be grateful that the solution also is.
 

8slim

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Remember, the team you have in April isn't the same as the team you take into September. The first third of the season is about figuring out what you have. With so many question marks on the roster, I think it's smart that they're giving themselves lots of flexibility. By May, we'll all have a much better idea of how healthy the infield will be, how good the bullpen is, which rookies look like studs, etc. Their needs will be more obvious, and they will have both the payroll flexibility and the prospects to make a major trade.
Understood. At the same time, people around these parts like to remind the manager that the games in April and May count the same as in August and September. So I really hope that Breslow acts swiftly to address problem spots in the lineup and pitching staff. At times the notions of "patience with [player x], it's a long season" and "the roster isn't set until much later in the season" can be at opposing ends.
 

RS2004foreever

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Agreed on this. The only downside of hedging with Campbell for injury/performance downside of Grissom & Story is that he's swapping out a RHB with an RHB. The biggest error bars right now are also RHB. I guess that we should be grateful that the solution also is.
The only thing I would add is playing Yoshida in left would allow him to recapture some value in terms of a trade. I actually think he will hit pretty well - but he doesn't address the LHP vulnerability. The Rays were so sure of Franco that dealt Adames for Rassmussen. The trade blew up in their faces, given what happened with Franco - but if Anthony destroys AAA pitching, you could swing a May/June trade to open a spot for him.