Much like Newman, the Sox are not “Ready to deliver”– The 2025 Offseason News (& rumors?) Thread
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And if by some chance they do this, odds are he'll start eating the dead horse named Asubsidized Bregman in a year or two and not even spend a moment thinking "If only this could be avoided".
Wonder if it could also be the types of pitch selections between a LHP vs. RHB vs a RHP vs RHB (lefties try to mix in more offspeed, which the trash can could have a better help for). I’m not sure if this is the case, but his splits against power pitchers vs finesse pitchers did flip after 2019. Altuve had a simliar flip, but Correa had a reverse flip, so it may just be SSS noise.
Usually the phrase is the horse has been beaten to death.... but times are tough and inflation is still up.
I am not “scared” of any adjustment period. If you read anything I’ve said in this thread, I’m expecting it unlike a lot of people here.
Adding Bregman would lengthen the lineup more so that the team would not have to count on production from a rookie as much and improve the infield defense as well. Adding Bregman would give the young guys another resource in the clubhouse to go to for a number of things. That kind of stuff isn’t in a Steamer projection.
This has been a big part of the Rosenthal case for us signing Bregman since like, early November. I think the intangible stuff is a little overstated, personally, and it sounds from multiple reports like Story has really done a good job with this (off the field anyway).
This “gaslight express” stuff from Cotillo is ridiculous.
If you think what Cotillo said is ridiculous, then maybe the front office should stop coming out and saying things like this
It certainly isn’t 3B. Breslow has made it clear Devers isn’t moving. If he comes here it’s at 2B which is a position Cora has always thought he’d be very successful at.
I don’t think it’s overstated and it’s ok to have more of that around the younger players.
The other reason not to sign Bregman is if the Red Sox sign him to a big deal and he faceplants, John Henry will never want to sign a free agent again.
That quote came out around the time they were offering $700m to Soto and about a week before offering 7/$190m to Fried. The sentiment is about accepting discomfort in pursuit of a better team; the discomfort is not the goal.
In a perfect world, I would think the ideal would be Bregman at 3B, Devers at DH. Campbell at 2B, Anthony in LF. Yoshida traded, Rafaela traded or in Worcester, or on the bench.
Or course, that’s all barring any injuries which isn’t realistic.
That's the point, some of us do believe this is about accepting discomfort in pursuit of a better team and Breslow is right, like it or not, high-end free agency is now about discomfort. We may not like it and Bregman isn't perfect, but some believe he'd upgrade the team and want the team to do what they have publicly said they're willing to do
In an offseason in which ownership said they’d be willing and able to spend to improve the team, their current CBT payroll sits $31.6 million below the first tax threshold. What exactly are they waiting for? If it’s not Bregman, they need a quality bullpen arm.
right, all offseason they've said they're looking for impact players and guys that will move the needle and in terms of free agency IMO that's Bregman and a couple of relievers
3B, with Devers to DH. You upgrade the 3B defense from one of the worst to one of the best, and improve on Yoshida’s bat.
I don’t really have any interest in Bregman as a 2B. One of Grissom or Campbell should stick there.
They’re not going to say anything remotely close to implying they would move Devers off of 3B until they have the pieces in place to do it.
Devers is a terrible fielder, and Breslow knows this. Announcing that Devers would hypothetically be ousted if we were to sign Bregman does nothing but to publicly declare that they don’t think Devers is an adequate 3B, and also gives Bregman unnecessary leverage in negotiations.
Listen I’d be all for him at 3rd. It would make logical sense. Just don’t think it will happen.
The quote literally starts with, "in order to attract free agent talent", so no
I mean this with all the respect in the world, but could you please just not post about Cotillo anymore. Links, responses to articles, whatever. Everyone who has spent a single second on this board in the past year knows how you feel. You think he’s out to get the Sox organization and shouldn’t be listened to. There are posts in every thread. Everyone gets it
Breslow’s recent quotes were pretty lukewarm honestly. Devers is the 3B “as of now”. Didn’t sound like a ringing vote of confidence to me at all. Plus, people say things all the time and then change course.
I think unquestionably if they sign Bregman it should be at 3B. Devers is going to be a DH or 1B at some point, the sooner the better (assuming we have a good 3B option like Bregman to replace him).
So the question may be Bregmans offense v. Yoshida and his defense v. Devers at third. Campbell starts at 2nd unless one of the other middle infielders is better. Anthony competes with Raphaell for a starter job. One other thought on Bregman, in 2026 one would hope Storys replacement is ready to start so does Story become a very expensive reserve? As much as I want him for 2025 I would rather they throw that money toward Vlad, especially of Casas is good not great.
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I do not have a league adjusted number. Just the overall wRC+ for all leagues.
Aaron Judge lead with 218. It was followed by Otani, Soto, and Campbell at 180 wRC+
This was posted earlier. But since 2006 (!) Campbell posted the 4th highest wRC+ in the minors (excluding DSL and rookie league).
His season is behind only Juan Soto, Kyle Schwarber, and Kris Bryant.
If the extend Crochet and sign a reliever will you be pleased with the offseason?
I’d say combined with the Chapman and Buehler signings and what you outline above, it’s a pretty decent offseason. But they need to get another impact bat for me to be pleased.
Honest question: Do you believe that this quote relates to every single free agent the Sox might *consider* adding to the team? In other words, do you believe Breslow is saying the Sox should get uncomfortable with every single free agent on the market that they might want to make an offer to? Or do you think there’s even a chance that he’s talking just about top of the market free agents like Max Fried or Juan Soto, to whom the Sox offered $700 million, which would have been among the largest contracts ever given to a baseball player?
Right.
And as someone upthread said, Hamilton plays a good 2B if Grissom doesn't work out (but I believe he will).
What if...
Campbell (the otherworldly Campbell that we are all hoping for) can play SS and 3B (Someone mentioned that he could. Can he really)?
Then he could spend some time at 3B, letting Devers DH some and Yoshida play OF some, and some time at SS, letting Story have some days off or DH some. It feels a little crowded, especially with Anthony (who I'd love to see in left) but as soon as there's an injury everything could slide into place (as long as its not Casas).
Pretty decent seems pretty ungenerous. The Sox added the second best player acquired during this off-season in Crochet, plus one of the better left handed relievers in baseball in Chapman, plus another quality, experienced starter in Buehler who, coming off TJ, profiles as at least a mid-rotation starter. If landing one of last season’s best starting pitchers in baseball, plus two other good arms, qualifies as “pretty decent,” I’m not sure what “somewhat above average” looks like.
You are worried that Campbell would have an unplayable adjustment period which is a well below average outcome, but you think Bregman would be able to effectively play 2B. A younger Bregman in ~300 attempts in the middle infield (mostly SS) was a completely unplayable -6 OAA. Out of the 84 players who played 100 innings at 2b last year, 38 of them were above 0 OAA, of those 38, 4 were older than 30 years old. Of the players 0 or below, 10 of them were over 30. The likelihood that Bregman is a positive defensively are very low, especially considering the 4 positives were Semien (one of the best defenders of this generation), Ketel Marte (mega athlete who spent his entire career in the middle), Xander (an aging SS), and Jose Iglesias (same and famous for his defense). Bregman is none of those things.
I get wanting them to make a move, but Bregman doesn't appear to be a very good bet to be a meaningful upgrade over the life of his contract, and maybe not even this season. I guess he could be a good leader in the clubhouse, but I am not interested in paying someone into his middle 30's just for that. Now, if it were to play 3b, where he would represent a meaningful upgrade defensively, I would be potentially interested. The problem is the team's best player plays there and there is a young potential star and an unmovable contract in the two other slots he could play. It's a bad fit, in my opinion.
The Crochet move was really good although getting a top of the rotation starter was a required move in order to improve. The problem with getting all excited about what they’ve done to this point this offseason is that they’re still at best the 3rd best team in the division and a fringe playoff team. A couple of more moves that would help the lineup and pen would help in changing my opinion.
Any idea how many other minor league players, AA and AAA, had a wRC+ around that 180+ that Campbell had in the last 10 to 20 years? And how did those players do during their MLB careers?
That’s the list.
Juan Soto
Kyle Schwarber
Kris Bryant
Kristian Campbell
End of list
One of the best offensive seasons minor league seasons we’ve ever seen.
I ask again: Has there been a player whose walk rate dropped ~5 percentage points as a 30yo who then remained productive afterwards? Someone said Adrian Beltre, but he always ran low walk rates so he's not a great comp. I'm not sure how to search for something like that, but I found someone who experienced a similar drop in walk rate as a 30yo, and it was this guy. He's not a great comp either for possibly obvious reasons, but yikes.
This isn't really rational, but I feel like signing Bregman would basically be a repeat of the Trevor Story Experience. I'm actually guardedly optimistic that Story can be decent this year, but it sure seems like the overwhelming majority of this board considers that signing to be a huge error. And now some of those same people want to run it back? I don't really get anything about it. I'd sooner sign Pete Alonso.
This isn't really rational, but I feel like signing Bregman would basically be a repeat of the Trevor Story Experience. I'm actually guardedly optimistic that Story can be decent this year, but it sure seems like the overwhelming majority of this board considers that signing to be a huge error. And now some of those same people want to run it back? I don't really get anything about it. I'd sooner sign Pete Alonso.
On the other hand - since 2020:
Devers wRC+ 130 and 16 bWAR in 2783 PA
Bregman wRC+ 124 and 16.8 bWAR in 2594 PA
Even after that scandal he is still a beast.
The problem isn't so much that he hasn't been good, he's been very good, it's whether he's a good bet to be good going forward. The decline tends to be a lot more precipitous than people think, and has only gotten worse since the steroid era has gotten further and further into the rearview mirror.
Players from age 25-30 accounted for 60% of player WAR in 2020, whereas plays 31+ accounted for just 20%. In 2000 the proportion of WAR for players 31+ was 35%. It's a very different era.
And the decline in WRC+ for players, generally speaking, is pretty precipitous after 30.
Now, anything can happen. Guys do find the fountain of youth sometimes. But when you consider that Bregman's wrc+ has declined from 137-126-118, coupled with the very troubling decline in walk rate that @Yelling At Clouds has noted, well, you have to wonder if Bregman is about to fall off a cliff.
I have a hunch that the solutions are right in front of us - and in our own system. Let's see what they've got.
Do each of these issues really have a “sizeable downside”, excluding uncontrollable injuries?
- if Yoshida is healthy, he will be productive. He OPS’d .920 from May to August last year while dealing with injuries
- if Story is healthy, he will provide high-end defense and if he can OPS at .750 that will be a huge addition to this team
- Devers defense is not going to improve, I just don’t see the “sizeable downside” here. We know who he is at 3B and he will likely remain there
- if Casas is healthy he will likely be raking. Again, I think we know who he is when all of his cartilage is attached to his rib cage. Where is the sizeable downside aside from injury?
- Grissom is a valid question mark that offers downside potentially
- Campbell and Anthony will have questions around whether they are ready to make the leap, but I’m not sure how they would be offering any downside — they are all upside with Cedanne/Abreu/Grissom/Hamilton baselines being in place still
- Duran’s likely only downside is moving from CF to LF and “losing” the WAR that comes from the positional difference, aside from that he was very consistent to what he was in 2023 offensively, so not sure why we would expect “sizeable downside” from him
- Wong was rated as one of the worst defensive C in MLB last year (and a solid offensive one), so again, what is the “sizeable downside”? It feels like either basline or all upside for a 27 year old C entering his second season as a full-time starter.
Thought this from Lou is the best take on this whole thing.
View: https://twitter.com/loumerloni/status/1883533452294705537?s=46&t=IVL2VrlFgLlpc3mjGGto8Q
View: https://twitter.com/loumerloni/status/1883533452294705537?s=46&t=IVL2VrlFgLlpc3mjGGto8Q
Much of the downside is related to return from injury for Story, Casas, and Yoshida. And there is a ripple effect from there: Devers defense appears to be better when Story is playing, they don't have a back up plan at 1B, etc. The downside for Grissom, Anthony, Campbell is if they are not ready, what is Plan B? Duran's downside is if last year was a career year and he is 80% as effective this year. Wong's downside is if they are depending on him to be the primary catcher with the hope for improved defense, and he has not improved, the ripple effect on the pitching staff.
So, yeah, "Each of these issues has a real chance of a positive outcome but a sizeable downside."
Well, you are just repeating your initial post then, which I disagree with. I don’t see “sizeable downside” in almost anything you listed aside from injury, which we could say about every player in MLB.
For instance, Jarred Duran’s 2023 was almost identical to his 2024 aside from the fact he only played 102 games and had half the ABs. I’m not sure why one would think that last years’ continuation of that was a “career year”.
Sorry Lou, but “it’s all about feelings” and “what he represents”? This seems so silly to me. Feelings say a lot more about the person feeling them than people tend to think.
I’m Bregman-ambivalent and there are definitely scenarios where bringing him aboard could make sense. But this kind of argument is symptomatic of weird-ass internet grievance culture.
If Campbell had not just skyrocketed to become arguably the #1 prospect in MLB, I’d be right there with them saying sure, sign Bregman to play 2B. But he has! So now it seems like the feeling is, I don’t care what makes the team better, John Henry owes us a dopamine hit.
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I have a feeling that you may be right and I think Breslow and Co. might feel that way too. A lot of the Bregman talk is fueled by the fact that it's been mentioned that the team would be looking to add a RHH, the fact that Bregman is still available and the Sox have the payroll to add him, but i'm not 100% sold on the idea that they NEED him. I don't see him as the "missing piece" and while I think he'll be a plus on the field I'm not sure how you fit him into this roster or if it comes at the expense of Campbell, Anthony and/or Mayer.
Right... not each of these issues has the same likelihood for success. I anticipate Duran will continue to be a very good player while I am skeptical that Story will play more than 100 games. And players returning from injury (Devers, Story, Yoshida, Casas... so, the core of the lineup) are in a fundamentally different spot than the chance of injury for "every player in MLB."
You're apparently more certain about each of the issues that I raised while I think there is a wide band of outcomes for most of the lineup. I'll be thrilled if you're right.