Jayson Tatum Needs His Own Thread

amarshal2

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I think some of the whistle is how in control the player looks. Hayward is so in control that when he gets bumped a little it’s visible and he gets the call. Same with Brown this year. Tatum looks wild and always on the verge of losing control and the refs don’t give him the benefit of the doubt. When he added that controlled upfake last game he got the calls.
 

Cesar Crespo

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His shot selection has been worse in the early going too. He's taking 8.6% less shots from 0-3, and .5% more from 3 point range. That's 8.1% more FG from 3 ft - 3 point, with 4.5% of those being 10-3pt.
 

DannyDarwinism

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amarshal2

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Tatum was quite good tonight after a slow start. 26 points on 16 shots as he drew a bunch of fouls (mostly on jumpers of all things) to get to the line. In the second half he had a couple nice sequences where he got to the basket in traffic and made his layup or dunked it home which seemed to build his confidence. Then he started to make threes that he was taking quickly but balanced and in rhythm just like he did earlier in the season. It’s really not that complicated. He’s a great shooter when he’s balanced and in rhythm.

Of course then, like the young player he is, he decided he was hot and took a difficult/off balance out of rhythm three he shouldn’t take and he missed the rim entirely. Not satisfied with one heat check he launched another one and clanked badly. He then missed a third on a step back three in traffic at the buzzer when he had smart open to his left, though this one was more excusable.

So anyway, he was pretty close to 26 points on 13 shots before his youthful exuberance got the best of him. Two steps forward, one step back.
 

lovegtm

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Tatum was quite good tonight after a slow start. 26 points on 16 shots as he drew a bunch of fouls (mostly on jumpers of all things) to get to the line. In the second half he had a couple nice sequences where he got to the basket in traffic and made his layup or dunked it home which seemed to build his confidence. Then he started to make threes that he was taking quickly but balanced and in rhythm just like he did earlier in the season. It’s really not that complicated. He’s a great shooter when he’s balanced and in rhythm.

Of course then, like the young player he is, he decided he was hot and took a difficult/off balance out of rhythm three he shouldn’t take and he missed the rim entirely. Not satisfied with one heat check he launched another one and clanked badly. He then missed a third on a step back three in traffic at the buzzer when he had smart open to his left, though this one was more excusable.

So anyway, he was pretty close to 26 points on 13 shots before his youthful exuberance got the best of him. Two steps forward, one step back.
I like what I'm seeing. He's getting so good on the defensive end, and the team is giving him a lot of freedom to work on his offensive game.

I should probably do a more general "regular season philosophy" post soon, but I'm in a fan of the way they're giving Tatum the high usage he'd get on a lottery team in order to speed up his development. Especially when it's combined with continued defensive effort and improvement. I'd rather get Jayson Tatum reps than win every November game.
 

Eddie Jurak

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I should probably do a more general "regular season philosophy" post soon, but I'm in a fan of the way they're giving Tatum the high usage he'd get on a lottery team in order to speed up his development. Especially when it's combined with continued defensive effort and improvement. I'd rather get Jayson Tatum reps than win every November game.
His usage is, remarkably, nearly as high as Kemba's right now (they are 27.9% and 27.3%). For Tatum that is a career high, for Kemba is is a considerable drop from a year ago, and it seems to be having the expected effect of both players' offensive efficiency.
 

lovegtm

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His usage is, remarkably, nearly as high as Kemba's right now (they are 27.9% and 27.3%). For Tatum that is a career high, for Kemba is is a considerable drop from a year ago, and it seems to be having the expected effect of both players' offensive efficiency.
Yeah, I’m fine with him having high, inefficient usage as long as the team is banking some wins. Young players need those reps—the Wizards with Beal and the Suns with Booker are good examples of the payoff of letting young guys get those reps even when maybe it’s not your optimal offense.
 

Jimbodandy

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Yeah, I’m fine with him having high, inefficient usage as long as the team is banking some wins. Young players need those reps—the Wizards with Beal and the Suns with Booker are good examples of the payoff of letting young guys get those reps even when maybe it’s not your optimal offense.
Especially since the majority of those reps actually are good offense. He certainly did force a bit last night, and Jaylen was even more egregious. But more of his attempts were good choices than not.
 

Strike4

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It's interesting that, even when they play back-of-the-bench guys, the Celtics no longer seem nearly as prone to these utterly disastrous stretches. Hell, Wannamaker-Tatum-Kanter-Edwards-Semi brought them back against the Kings.
I still have PTSD when I see Tatum dribble around and then jack up a long two...but then they seem to right the ship pretty quickly. Those long scoring droughts where nothing would happen were one of the worst aspects of last season.
 

InstaFace

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I still have PTSD when I see Tatum dribble around and then jack up a long two...but then they seem to right the ship pretty quickly. Those long scoring droughts where nothing would happen were one of the worst aspects of last season.
I hope they have a Swear Jar equivalent for Tatum for those shots.
 

TripleOT

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He's clearly making a massive, uncomfortable effort to change his shot profile this year, so whatever they're doing, it's working.
Tatum has taken 1.69 long twos (16 feet to the three point line) per game this season, and 2.43 last season. He's taking 2.4 more threes per game, and 2.6 more twos. Is it really that much of a change in shot profile, besides the higher volume, from 13.1 to 18.2 shots per game?
 

Sprowl

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I moved several posts on Jayson Tatum to this thread from Mr. Chemistry.
 

nighthob

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Tatum has taken 1.69 long twos (16 feet to the three point line) per game this season, and 2.43 last season. He's taking 2.4 more threes per game, and 2.6 more twos. Is it really that much of a change in shot profile, besides the higher volume, from 13.1 to 18.2 shots per game?
I mean he’s reduced the long 2s by 30% while increasing his total shots by 40%. I’d say that’s a pretty big change in shot profile.
 

lovegtm

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I mean he’s reduced the long 2s by 30% while increasing his total shots by 40%. I’d say that’s a pretty big change in shot profile.
Also, eye test, he’s doing a TON more as the primary initiator, as opposed to the secondary and tertiary creation he mostly did his first 2 years. That’s a difference that isn’t captured at all by just looking at shot profiles. It’s harder to get threes and rim attempts when you’re the guy starting the possession.

Shot location is often more of an effect than a cause—Tatum was shooting long 2s because it was the easiest shot to get to. Teams run you hard off the 3 point line and sell out at the rim, but they’ll concede 17 footers to a bad midrange guy like Tatum no problem.
 

NomarsFool

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It was certainly a great performance against a very good defensive team. Unfortunately, Brown and Walker really struggled against such great defenders.
 

lovegtm

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It was certainly a great performance against a very good defensive team. Unfortunately, Brown and Walker really struggled against such great defenders.
LeBron is one of the top 3 players in the history of the sport, and even he swears under his breath when Kawhi walks onto the court.

The key is that the Celtics were able to go toe-to-toe and generate lots of high-value looks both in the paint and from 3, while playing good defense themselves.

And we were missing Hayward. If LAC had lost without Kawhi or George, that’s all we’d be hearing about, but somehow it’s not a big deal that the Celtics are missing their all-star forward who has the exact game needed to break the traps on Kemba.
 

benhogan

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It was certainly a great performance against a very good defensive team. Unfortunately, Brown and Walker really struggled against such great defenders.
Smart 1 for 11 on 3s...I love me some Marcus Smart but he can't repeatedly lead the team in 3pt attempts (3rd straight game)...it really shouldn't happen more than 2-3x a season with Kemba, Tatum, Hayward, and Brown on the roster. AND especially in a big/tight regular-season game.

Just noticed Smart is 2nd on the team in 3PA (7.5), come on Marcus. Love most everything about the guy (defense, Asst/Tov, attitude, intangibles, etc) but he needs to settle down a hair and cut that back by a few/game. His ball-handling penetration has been excellent, the Celtics would be better off if he continued with that.

Captaincy still awaits for MS
 
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Jimbodandy

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Smart 1 for 11 on 3s...I love me some Marcus Smart but he can't repeatedly lead the team in 3pt attempts (3rd straight game)...it really shouldn't happen more than 2-3x a season with Kemba, Tatum, Hayward, and Brown on the roster. AND especially in a big/tight regular-season game.

Just noticed Smart is 2nd on the team in 3PA (7.5), come on Marcus. Love most everything about the guy (defense, Asst/Tov, attitude, intangibles, etc) but he needs to settle down a hair and cut that back by a few/game. His ball-handling penetration has been excellent, the Celtics would be better off if he continued with that.

Captaincy still awaits for MS
I agree with every word of this post.

The offense is still being built, and it needs to have just a hair less of Marcus jacking.
 

lovegtm

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I agree with every word of this post.

The offense is still being built, and it needs to have just a hair less of Marcus jacking.
It’s especially frustrating when Tatum can generate quality 3-pt looks almost at will.

But, as you said, the offense is still being built. I think we all got burned last year, when there was no real progression or learning to the season. This year’s group is infinitely more coachable, which in turn should open up offensive options over time.
 

PedrosRedGlove

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He's actually 10th in the entire league in 3PAs... (side note: Kemba leads all non-Harden players at 130 attempts, Harden has taken 208) Ten, eleven shots a game is a little high, but until he went ice cold the last 3 games (4/29) he was shooting very well, so I'm not sure I mind. Finding out whether this new shooting ability is real is going to be one of the more interesting things to follow this year.
 

DJnVa

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Just noticed Smart is 2nd on the team in 3PA (7.5), come on Marcus. Love most everything about the guy (defense, Asst/Tov, attitude, intangibles, etc) but he needs to settle down a hair and cut that back by a few/game. His ball-handling penetration has been excellent, the Celtics would be better off if he continued with that.

Of note:
Before Hayward's injury: Smart--6.5 threes and 9.5 shots per game. 68% of his shots were threes in 30 minutes/game.
After Hayward's injury: Smart--8.5 threes and 13.5 shots per game. 65% of his shots are threes in 35 minutes/game.

He's clearly trying to pick up some of the slack--he's shooting much more often.
 
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JakeRae

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Smart 1 for 11 on 3s...I love me some Marcus Smart but he can't repeatedly lead the team in 3pt attempts (3rd straight game)...it really shouldn't happen more than 2-3x a season with Kemba, Tatum, Hayward, and Brown on the roster. AND especially in a big/tight regular-season game.

Just noticed Smart is 2nd on the team in 3PA (7.5), come on Marcus. Love most everything about the guy (defense, Asst/Tov, attitude, intangibles, etc) but he needs to settle down a hair and cut that back by a few/game. His ball-handling penetration has been excellent, the Celtics would be better off if he continued with that.

Captaincy still awaits for MS
Smart takes 2/3 of his shots from 3 this year. Kemba takes slightly more than half, Tatum slightly more than a third, and Brown less than 30%. That Smart takes a really high number of threes doesn’t necessarily mean he’s shooting too much because he takes so few other shots. And that he’s second in attempts per game is more about Tatum still not taking enough threes than Smart taking too many.

That said, Smart should probably trend down in both usage and three attempts over time. Getting Hayward back will obviously eat into his shots. Edwards or Kanter getting going offensively would help too. Smart generally is willing to defer on offense when other guys are getting good looks and converting. When the offense stagnates, he tends to shoot more, but I think people tend to have the cause/effect wrong on this. Smart starts heaving when no one has good looks, and it is thus correlated with bad offense, but it is generally the bad offense causing Smart to shoot too much, not Smart killing the offense. Smart is almost never the problem with the team. (He does take the occasional open three off the dribble from the top of the key early in the shot clock and it’s almost always a bad decision, but he doesn’t do this all that often and it’s no different than how other guys will occasionally force bad drives or take misguided long 2s except that it tends to stand out more.)
 

teddykgb

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There’s just so much reason to think he can do it that I don’t know whether they will. It’s probably like Smart, where they treat it as a multi-year project and let him work on it in game for a few attempts a game.

I also think more regular PT would help in this regard.
If he can’t hit the 3 he’s going to wash out of the league regardless of how smart he is or how well he defends. He’s a position tweeter as it is he’s not gonna justify a roster spot if he’s not able to learn to make that shot. It seemed fine in preseason so I think it will come around and he probably just needs to see a few go in so he can relax.

I’m more concerned about Tatum’s learning curve. This is a bit of a crucible for him where he’s being asked to be the unquestioned #1 scorer and there are some growing pains to be expected but some issues which it will be fascinating to see if he can work out. The shot selection has largely improved but his finishing at the rim continues to be erratic. He doesn’t seem to be able to consistently beat a man off the dribble the way other elite scorers can so he’s having to finish in more congestion/contested scenarios. The long 2s May have been more of a symptom than a cause, he seems to need to learn to drive and finish more if he wants to open up his generally strong shot making ability when everyone is focused on him. He seems to work hard and has a ton of talent but I wonder if that’s something he’ll need to spend even more time on next summer
 

DJnVa

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I’m more concerned about Tatum’s learning curve. This is a bit of a crucible for him where he’s being asked to be the unquestioned #1 scorer and there are some growing pains to be expected but some issues which it will be fascinating to see if he can work out. The shot selection has largely improved but his finishing at the rim continues to be erratic.
He's improving.

View: https://twitter.com/Tom_NBA/status/1199128026535145472
 

teddykgb

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Some of those finishes were incredibly difficult, though. I guess my concern might be best expressed as there being an awfully high degree of difficulty in the shots at the rim he’s attempting — the percentage will of course fluctuate.


And of course I think Tatum is a stud, I’m more wondering whether it’s not just a matter of effort and talent and more of an issue with quickness or something that might limit him. I had read an article that suggested it might have more to do with him learning some variety instead of charging at the rim and that would be something he might adapt as he gets more reps. I just think it’s interesting to watch. Right now I don’t feel great when he dribbles back and you know he’s going 1 on 1.


Edit: here was the article but for all I know it was linked from here originally when I read it: https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2019/10/why-boston-celtics-wing-jayson-tatum-is-missing-at-the-rim-video-breakdown.html
 

lovegtm

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Some of those finishes were incredibly difficult, though. I guess my concern might be best expressed as there being an awfully high degree of difficulty in the shots at the rim he’s attempting — the percentage will of course fluctuate.


And of course I think Tatum is a stud, I’m more wondering whether it’s not just a matter of effort and talent and more of an issue with quickness or something that might limit him. I had read an article that suggested it might have more to do with him learning some variety instead of charging at the rim and that would be something he might adapt as he gets more reps. I just think it’s interesting to watch. Right now I don’t feel great when he dribbles back and you know he’s going 1 on 1.


Edit: here was the article but for all I know it was linked from here originally when I read it: https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2019/10/why-boston-celtics-wing-jayson-tatum-is-missing-at-the-rim-video-breakdown.html
He's about as quick/athletic as a lot of other star wings. I think it's more about tightening is handle, getting stronger, finishing through contact, and reps as a primary scorer rather than a secondary guy.

He's already added some nice stuff to his 15-foot fall away where he pumps and draws the foul. Just that adds equity to that shot from getting to the line some on it, and weakening the contest.

Finally, if he's going to get (some deserved) shit for not having progressed as fast offensively as guys like Luka and Trae, we should also note that he's in a completely different stratosphere from those guys defensively. Yes, elite scoring is the premium skill in the NBA, but Tatum's defense still contributes a ton to winning.
 

Big John

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Tatum needs to stop eyeballing the refs every time he's fouled but does not get the call. That's one of the reasons he doesn't get them.
 

lovegtm

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Tatum needs to stop eyeballing the refs every time he's fouled but does not get the call. That's one of the reasons he doesn't get them.
That's a minor reason though--the main one is that he doesn't have guys out of position/off balance when he draws contact.
 

Jimbodandy

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That's a minor reason though--the main one is that he doesn't have guys out of position/off balance when he draws contact.
That's savvy, not speed/explosiveness. He'll get there.

As you noted, plenty of guys made great careers with his athleticism at wing and less length.
 

lovegtm

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That's savvy, not speed/explosiveness. He'll get there.

As you noted, plenty of guys made great careers with his athleticism at wing and less length.
He's close to Hayward athletically (not as explosive, but longer), and generally more athletic than Doncic, although Doncic has that Harden super saiyan stopping ability and a better handle.

Tatum's realistic path probably looks like:
1. more strength
2. improved handle
3. More iso/PnR 3s off the dribble
4. Use the strength to substitute the Hayward (and now Jaylen) 10-15 foot fadeaway for his current floater. The floater seems harder for him to control, and doesn't have as much foul-drawing equity.
 

DourDoerr

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Tatum needs to stop eyeballing the refs every time he's fouled but does not get the call. That's one of the reasons he doesn't get them.
It's the thing I dislike about him the most by a wide margin. He's young and that's probably 99.99% of this, but he'll hopefully soon learn to bag it and will instead just quietly joke and talk with refs during lulls. Smart's always interacting with the refs and it's amusing to think of what he's laying on them.
 

CJM

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And at the end of the day, he has a little more of the secret sauce.

If there are 18 seconds left, it's an interesting debate. I'd rather have JB taking his guy off the dribble. But if it's 3 seconds left, JT is the better option.
The shot selection has largely improved but his finishing at the rim continues to be erratic. He doesn’t seem to be able to consistently beat a man off the dribble the way other elite scorers can so he’s having to finish in more congestion/contested scenarios.
He's about as quick/athletic as a lot of other star wings. I think it's more about tightening is handle, getting stronger, finishing through contact, and reps as a primary scorer rather than a secondary guy.
Can you guys help me with something---what skills/attributes give Tatum such a high ceiling? Is it his length or shooting stroke or ability to take guys off the dribble or some legit alpha secret sauce? Watching the Celtics the past few seasons has been an education, but I'm still far away from being able to evaluate the quality of a guy like Tatum.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Can you guys help me with something---what skills/attributes give Tatum such a high ceiling? Is it his length or shooting stroke or ability to take guys off the dribble or some legit alpha secret sauce? Watching the Celtics the past few seasons has been an education, but I'm still far away from being able to evaluate the quality of a guy like Tatum.
Shooting, ability to get to the rim, ability to create for himself, ability to contribute in other areas (rebounding, defense, developing as a passer).
 

HomeRunBaker

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Not an exact comparison, but look what happened to Golden State with some top players out/left. A total garbage team. The fact that missing 2 All-Star caliber players and another starter they are still competitive with a team like Sacramento, I think shows they have some decent depth.
Sacramento was in middle of East Coast swing on a B2B with 3rd game in 4 nights coming off their sigh of relief trip win. They were primed to lay an egg and lose by 30 instead they faced our depleted roster, layed an egg and played down to the final possession. You can make an argument that we have solid depth I'm just not sure this is the time to pull out that card.

Can you guys help me with something---what skills/attributes give Tatum such a high ceiling? Is it his length or shooting stroke or ability to take guys off the dribble or some legit alpha secret sauce? Watching the Celtics the past few seasons has been an education, but I'm still far away from being able to evaluate the quality of a guy like Tatum.
I began coming around to Tatum NOT having such a high ceiling early last year and feel he's closer to a finished product than most his age and certainly more finished than Jaylen. He's already highly skilled and his lack of taking his explosiveness/elite ballhandling to create angles caps his ceiling from getting to that next level.......still as a very very good player and bottom tier All-Star similar to where Hayward was in prior to his injury. Nothing to sneeze at I just don't see that next level perennial All-Star starter that others do in him. Disclaimer: I felt same about Pierce early in his career too.
 
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Jed Zeppelin

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Sacramento was in middle of East Coast swing on a B2B with 3rd game in 4 nights coming off their sign of relief trip win. They were primed to lay an egg and lose by 30 instead they faced our depleted roster, layed an egg and played down to the final possession. You can make an argument that we have solid depth I'm just not sure this is the time to pull out that card.


I began coming around to Tatum NOT having such a high ceiling early last year and feel he's closer to a finished product than most his age and certainly more finished than Jaylen. He's already highly skilled and his lack of taking his explosiveness/elite ballhandling to create angles caps his ceiling from getting to that next level.......still as a very very good player and bottom tier All-Star similar to where Hayward was in prior to his injury. Nothing to sneeze at I just don't see that next level perennial All-Star starter that others do in him. Disclaimer: I felt same about Pierce early in his career too.
Was just reading through the last day of responses and was going to land on a Pierce reference too. The lack of an elite first step means he has to take more indirect routes to the rim at this point in his career. I doubt he will ever be as strong as Pierce who was just a bear through his prime, but there is a path where he adds strength, learns how to better manipulate defenders on drives, and becomes an efficiency monster. He isn't Jaylen but he is quick enough—it's just a matter of maximizing what he has in that department and learning to exploit the other facets of his game in the paint.

Kind of makes Jaylen's progression all the more impressive, coming in as a guy who gave the impression of someone who couldn't shoot well, couldn't handle the ball at all, couldn't finish, had no feel for the game, and was little more than a raw athlete. It has basically been the Avery Bradley path on overdrive.
 

lovegtm

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Tatum is probably going to have to find a way to use his skill to generate his own 3s in order to make up for lack of quickness. Luka isn't an explosive athlete, but the fact that he can step back for 3 at any point effectively gives him a head-start on every drive. For a less elite example, Smart's improved outside shot has opened up more driving opportunities for him.

This is one reason I generally don't buy the "too polished" thing--if a guy isn't yet able to combine that polish into a package that effectively buys him half steps, it means that it's only his component parts that are polished, not the whole game.
 

Big John

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Well, when Paul Pierce was Tatum's age, he and Raef LaFrentz were leading Kansas to a 35-4 record and a big 12 title. Plerce averaged 20.4, 6.7 and 2.6 that year playing against college kids. At age 21 Pierce weighed 215-220, not 235. Tatum, who currently weighs around 215, is averaging 20.5, 6.9 and 2.4 this year playing against professionals-- virtually identical to Pierce's college numbers.

Pierce became significantly better as he matured. Tatum will too. I think it's way too early to conclude that Tatum is close to his ceiling.
 

Devizier

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Well, when Paul Pierce was Tatum's age, he and Raef LaFrentz were leading Kansas to a 35-4 record and a big 12 title. Plerce averaged 20.4, 6.7 and 2.6 that year playing against college kids. At age 21 Pierce weighed 215-220, not 235. Tatum, who currently weighs around 215, is averaging 20.5, 6.9 and 2.4 this year playing against professionals-- virtually identical to Pierce's college numbers.
Minutes are not necessarily a barometer of talent, but it's worth noting that only ~50 players have played as many professional minutes as Tatum by his age.

Tatum suffers by comparison to players like Tracy McGrady but it seems to me that he is developing into a better, more well-rounded player. There's going to be some growing pains but the investment will be worth it.
 

TripleOT

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As lovegtm astutely mentions above, the ability to generate unassisted threes can set up the rest of Tatum's offense, where in Pierce's early career, his strength that was the cornerstone of his driving ability was key. I would be great for him to have a crazy quick first step, but if he did, maybe he would have never developed the rest of his game, like so many ath-a-letes do when they dominate HS and college play by physical attributes alone.

Tatum reminds me of a 1970s forward with great scoring skills. My first comp for him was George Gervin (with a bit less flavor). I see him as a perennial 25 ppg scorer. It makes sense that they're retooling his game to eschew the long two, but I do like the idea of him exploiting smaller switches at the FT line, a la KD, and I like his mid-post turnaround in small doses. One of the reasons he's had trouble finishing at the rim this season might be because he's starting his drives past the three point line, when in the previous two years, he wasn't always starting from there. He is adjusting, as the recent at rim FG% attests. His eFG% is down, but he has bumped his scoring from 15 to 20 ppg, and also upticked his rebounds, assists, FTA, and steals.

I'd say he's showing solid growth so far in year three on offense, and has really improved on defense. He might not become a top 5 player in the league, but probably will be top 15.
 

Jimbodandy

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Tatum is probably going to have to find a way to use his skill to generate his own 3s in order to make up for lack of quickness. Luka isn't an explosive athlete, but the fact that he can step back for 3 at any point effectively gives him a head-start on every drive. For a less elite example, Smart's improved outside shot has opened up more driving opportunities for him.

This is one reason I generally don't buy the "too polished" thing--if a guy isn't yet able to combine that polish into a package that effectively buys him half steps, it means that it's only his component parts that are polished, not the whole game.
That's where I am.

He's clearly learning and is already a decent scorer and excellent defender. He needs to add just a bit of girth and more savvy to his game to be a regular all star. He's not far away from that.

Jury is out on whether his flashes of elite shotmaking are real (or the pedestrian shotmaking). But his length and coachability is real, and his work ethic seems real as well. For him to end up a top 15 player, he needs all of the projectable things to happen and the elite shotmaking to be a thing. It's far from certain but not impossible.

Edit: funny that TripleOT and I were typing "top 15" at the same time.
 

benhogan

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Nov 2, 2007
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Tatum's potential/ceiling will be reached when he adds another 15-20lbs of muscle combined with maturity/experience and that will turn him into a 24-25ppg/8 reb All-Star that plays elite defense.

JT works his ass off every summer, calling his ceiling while he is 21yrs old won't age well. As soon as he has the strength, he will be able to play through contact and look to initiate that contact (instead of avoiding it). This will lead to more efficiency around the rim and more FTs.

This is basically the easiest prediction ever.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Mar 26, 2005
30,506
calling his ceiling while he is 21yrs old won't age well.
James Harden at 21 was averaging 26.7 minutes and 12.7 ppg at OKC.

There are only 31 other guys in NBA history who were 21 or young (based on February 1 birth date) that accumulated more than 13 WS. Assuming Tatum ends up with 18 by the end of this season, he'll be in the top 20 or so. http://bkref.com/tiny/T5vwx

Tatum is really really really good at playing basketball. His shot is phenomenal and unblockable and I suspect he's going to add distance and consistency as he gets stronger. He plays great defense. He has handle and power. Plus, as BH points out, he works HARD.

He is going to be a perennial All-Star and frankly when he's 27 (barring injury), he's going to be one of the top 10 guys in the game IMO.
 

lovegtm

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Apr 30, 2013
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Minutes are not necessarily a barometer of talent, but it's worth noting that only ~50 players have played as many professional minutes as Tatum by his age.

Tatum suffers by comparison to players like Tracy McGrady but it seems to me that he is developing into a better, more well-rounded player. There's going to be some growing pains but the investment will be worth it.
Yeah, Tatum would be a senior in college right now.
Tatum's potential/ceiling will be reached when he adds another 15-20lbs of muscle combined with maturity/experience and that will turn him into a 24-25ppg/8 reb All-Star that plays elite defense.

JT works his ass off every summer, calling his ceiling while he is 21yrs old won't age well. As soon as he has the strength, he will be able to play through contact and look to initiate that contact (instead of avoiding it). This will lead to more efficiency around the rim and more FTs.

This is basically the easiest prediction ever.
The bolded is the important part. When you combine physical talent with crazy work ethic, it’s usually not good to take the negative side of the bet. One of the most promising indicators for Tatum’s offense (imo) is how much work he’s done on his defense since Duke. Shows a lot about him.

And regarding @wade boggs chicken dinner’s point, I think people here expect every 21 year-old to be Luka offensively. a) it doesn’t work like that usually, even for talented guys b) Luka is a trash fire on the defensive end, so Tatum is more precocious than him in that regard.
 

shoelace

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Jun 24, 2019
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As a long time lurker, it seems like HRB's heuristic for player evaluation is like length + athleticism = projectability. I'm not knocking that as a rule of thumb or general principle, but it's obviously limiting. Marcus Smart came into the league as a 6' 3'' 240 pound combo guard who basically had one NBA level skill. I don't think a lot of folks expected him to turn into the player he is today, and of course he did that by working on his handle, his shooting, his playmaking ability and by changing his body. Working on all of those things will make up for Tatum not having elite athleticism and if he does, he's clearly going to be a top 15 player as folks have said. There's too much of a tendency for folks to see a young player struggling with the development of a specific skill (say ballhandling for Jaylen or shooting for Smart) and to just assume that said player will never be good at those things, sometimes it just takes a few seasons.
 
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Jimbodandy

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Jan 31, 2006
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around the way
As a long time lurker, it seems like HRB's heuristic for player evaluation is like length + athleticism = projectability. I'm not knocking that as a rule of thumb or general principle, but it's obviously limiting. Marcus Smart came into the league as a 6' 3'' 240 pound combo guard who basically had one NBA level skill. I don't think a lot of folks expected him to turn into the player he is today, and of course he did that by working on his handle, his shooting, his playmaking ability and by changing his body. Working on all of those things will make up for his not having elite athleticism and if he does, he's clearly going to be a top 15 player as folks have said. There's too much of a tendency for folks to see a young player struggling with the development of a specific skill (say ballhandling for Jaylen or shooting for Smart) and to just assume that said player will never be good at those things, sometimes it just takes a few seasons.
Well said. Depends on the guy and his work ethic.

It's entirely fair to project a guy based on the legion of people who matched his demographics before him. At the same time, not everyone follows the same path.

As much has I loved Smart in college and the pick, I didn't expect him to turn into anything resembling an NBA point guard. Yet, here he is.