Nationals trade Juan Soto/Josh Bell to San Diego
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
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This post adds nothing of value, but as a father whose 3 kids have grown up Nats fans since Day 1 of the DC incarnation of the franchise, and who has become a big fan myself, let me just say fuckety fuck fuck FUCK.
It's their #1 (Hassell), #3 (Wood), and #14 (Susana) prospects--the top 2 are #9 and #37 in MLB.
Abrams, Hassell, and Wood are all top 50 prospects. That's a pretty good package
That said, it's almost impossible to get equal value for Soto in the real world. As far as what they could realistically get, that's a pretty good group.
I'm with you on this ... expecting more pieces, but maybe these are better prospects than I'm aware.
Hassell (OF, 20) is their #1 prospect according to MLB.com, Wood (OF, 19) is their #3 prospect, Susana (P, 18) is their #14 prospect. Abrams would probably be their #1 prospect but is a big leaguer now. It's a good haul for Washington....but SD didn't necessarily empty out their whole farm for Soto, plus Bell (.301/.384/.493, 152 OPS+) isn't exactly a little add-on.
Edit: Okay, Gore makes a difference. Probably should refrain from too much analysis before the details are finalized.
Edit: Okay, Gore makes a difference. Probably should refrain from too much analysis before the details are finalized.
Bell is likely a rental, and I expect not as valuable as his pedigree among fans might suggest.
But that’s a good trade for SD, a better one than they made for Hader. At least 2.3 years of Soto is no joke.
But that’s a good trade for SD, a better one than they made for Hader. At least 2.3 years of Soto is no joke.
Abrams, Hassell and Wood were/are consensus top 100 prospects and Susana was the top-ranked pitcher in the 2021 international class.
EDIT: plus Gore and Hosmer wow
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I mean people were talking about “the biggest haul of prospects in history.” That feels like a good haul, but not earth shattering.
No way the Dodgers couldn’t have topped that of they wanted to.
I wonder if the other major leaguer could be Morejon. Another young pitcher, back from TJS last year, shown some good stuff. I think he's only 23, that would make it a pretty good package for the Nats.
I'm not a COTS wonk but I see a lot of expiring contracts in 2023 so the Padres as presently constituted have the same window as Soto. And the longer term stuff (Musgrove, Machado) seem sound on its face for longer term deals. I don't see this as a Dombrowski-esque emptying of the cupboard.
[EDIT: if more sunk cost types like Hosmer are part of this, it's only a better deal for SD and doesn't mean oblivion past 2023].
This year or next if they win it all they can choose part ways with Soto with less fan revolt I suspect. And if Soto actually likes winning in SD over the next 18 mths that may even change the calculus slightly of his deal. So I don't see this as a pending abyss even if they don't win it all, and even if Soto is only a rental.
Tangentially related: I would also think that Shohei Ohtani's status a year from now, in the same 18-month FA window in 2023 as Soto is now in 2022, will factor into how LAA and SD approach deals with these players. They seem to be interlinked with leverage and AAV and perception that a unprecedented megadeal is going to happen, but only one of them can get the biggest deal in MLB history.
Hosmer has a no-trade that includes WAS, hold on.
View: https://twitter.com/dennistlin/status/1554497778532814848
View: https://twitter.com/dennistlin/status/1554497778532814848
They took Hosmer because it meant they got more/better prospects back. Hosmer isn't bad, but 3 more years at 13 mil per (18 mil for tax purposes because of how the contract was structured), that deal is a fair bit under water. He's actually a guy that might interest the Sox if it were only 1 or 2 years, and the Nats ate some of the money. Maybe he just plays the steady mentor role in Washington.
Can someone give some breakdowns on what an equal package from the Yankees/Sox would have been? Trying to figure out how good this deal is for Washington.
As someone who enjoys chaos, I completely agree. They'll still get it hammered out, but it'll be fun to watch.
I feel like the Padres would have known this and we're just waiting on the formality here.
Eh. They have 2 drafts, and 2+ years of trades, pre-Soto FA to find a few prospects who can replace who they've traded.
SD has had 1 winning season in the past 11 years. They've seen purgatory.
BOS - Casas, Meyer, Yorke, Mata and Whitlock would be my first guess.
MFY - Volpe, Peraza, Dominguez, Lange would be my first guess as to the prospects, cannot quickly come up with a major league arm that fits.
Pretty impressive that the Athletic basically called this a week ago, describing it as one of the few packages that would give WAS fair value -
https://theathletic.com/3447510/2022/07/26/juan-soto-trade-values/?source=fbhq
https://theathletic.com/3447510/2022/07/26/juan-soto-trade-values/?source=fbhq
Plus they’d dump Chris Sale in the albatross swap with Hosmer.
I would have 1000% done that deal.
Probably Effross and Clarke Schmidt from MLB arms side. Neither has enormous value but both super cost controlled for awhile and interesting talent.
Sox: Abrams is like Marcelo Mayer in two years if things go to plan; Hassell III is like if Nick Yorke was a competent defender in an outfield corner; Mackenzie Gore is a 23 year old MLB SP with good stuff doing pretty well, but walking a few extra guys, so... I guess Bello would be our closest comp; James Wood is 19 y/o OF slugging .600 in A ball. We... don't really have anyone like that. Maybe Bleis, next season, with more power?; Susana is a 18 y/o SP prospect in rookie ball with huge K numbers, so... maybe Wikelman Gonzalez if he was a year younger and had better numbers. And then, you know, Hosmer, which would be like if Dalbec were six years older and owed $75m over the next four years.
The point is that this is a package that includes MLB-ready or near-ready guys like Gore and Abrams, a guy who's a year or two out in Hassell, and some very young players with insane upside in Wood and Susana.
When evaluating this haul, you have to factor in that the Nats also gave up Bell and took on Hosmer. Obviously Soto makes up the largest chunk of the value by far, but the Bell/Hosmer part alone generates a return well north of what we got for Vazquez, right?
Does this make the Dodgers and Mets more edgy to improve? JD and Nate might be looking better and helped raise the asking price