Mookie BBetts - 2019 Campaign

Seels

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What makes you think Betts was willing to sign an extension 3-4 years ago?

Also letting Lester walk wasn't a mistake. Signing David Price was.
That doesn't mean letting Lester walk wasn't a mistake.

There's no evidence Betts was willing to do an extension, sure. But every other club in baseball is able to do this with their young players, why should we or anyone believe that the Red Sox are the sole organization that can not do this? Obviously the situation changed after 2016. The Braves didn't wait to pay Acuna or Albies. The Rockies, a team with significantly less payroll flexibility, extended their hall of fame talent. The Red Sox have 0 excuses for this whole affair.
 

sean1562

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the rockies are also terrible and look to be terrible for the next few years. if we are looking for models of how to run an org, i dont think we should be looking at the rockies and all the terrible deals they have handed out over the last 5 years
 

Cesar Crespo

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That doesn't mean letting Lester walk wasn't a mistake.

There's no evidence Betts was willing to do an extension, sure. But every other club in baseball is able to do this with their young players, why should we or anyone believe that the Red Sox are the sole organization that can not do this? Obviously the situation changed after 2016. The Braves didn't wait to pay Acuna or Albies. The Rockies, a team with significantly less payroll flexibility, extended their hall of fame talent. The Red Sox have 0 excuses for this whole affair.
Lester has been worth 13.7 WAR over 5 years. Price has been worth 10.8 over 4. Lester gets points for having a cheaper contract. He's been paid $125 mil over 5 years and Price has been paid $121 for 4. Lester's averaged 2.74 WAR a year, Price has averaged 2.7 WAR a year. Lester's averaged 188 innings while Price has averaged 147. If he gets points for IP, Price gets points for being more effective.

Letting Lester walk wasn't a mistake. Signing him really wouldn't have been either.

Also, they literally just did it with Xander Bogaerts.
 

The Needler

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I think the only thing you can do is try to project Mookie's long-term performance and calculate what you think is a fair valuation of that performance and make your offers based on that. Red Sox Stats posted some projections for Betts and JDM on Twitter, so that's at least someplace to start:

View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1177967691979788293?s=09


The one thing those projections don't take into account is time missed due to injury, which I think you need to bake into your calculations.
I don't think it's a good place to start. Projecting him to have a 1.000 OPS over the next 2 seasons and averaging 37 HR strikes me as somewhat absurd.

Per fangraphs, ZIPS has him at around 100 points of OPS and 10 HR fewer per year. I'd be happy to see some other unbiased projections, but that Tweet doesn't pass the reasonableness sniff test.
 

sean1562

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the anthony rendon projection is weird too. the guy has an OPS of 1.010 this year, drops down to .861 next, and then back up at age 31?
 

Pitt the Elder

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I don't think it's a good place to start. Projecting him to have a 1.000 OPS over the next 2 seasons and averaging 37 HR strikes me as somewhat absurd.

Per fangraphs, ZIPS has him at around 100 points of OPS and 10 HR fewer per year. I'd be happy to see some other unbiased projections, but that Tweet doesn't pass the reasonableness sniff test.
Yeah, I'm not 100% sure where he got those projections from or what formulas the used to get there, but I haven't seen any other long term projections. Anyone else want to take a shot?
 

Cesar Crespo

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Yeah, I'm not 100% sure where he got those projections from or what formulas the used to get there, but I haven't seen any other long term projections. Anyone else want to take a shot?
Are any of these formulas supposed to be used 10 years out? I'm not really big on projections but when I see them, they are usually for 3 years max.
 

8slim

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Henry and Werner signed off on the Sale extension, and now are suggesting (through the press) that the money isn’t there to sign Mookie. How these guys couldn’t plan literally one to two years in advance is mind blowing.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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Henry and Werner signed off on the Sale extension, and now are suggesting (through the press) that the money isn’t there to sign Mookie. How these guys couldn’t plan literally one to two years in advance is mind blowing.
I think it's more likely that they've never been comfortable with the possibility of a 10/$350 or whatever it will be for Mookie, than they signed off on Sale in a vacuum.
 

Pitt the Elder

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Are any of these formulas supposed to be used 10 years out? I'm not really big on projections but when I see them, they are usually for 3 years max.
I doubt it. The best we can do, IMO, is try to make some best estimate projections of WAR using some of the aging curves that Needler has provided (both phenom and non-phenom curves are in this article). Here are some quick back-of-the-envelope calculations I did using the aging curves for WAR/600 (I also included aging curves for phenoms, who generally maintain their ability level longer)

AgeWAR/600WAR/600Mookie AdjustMookie Adjust (Phenom)
23-0.25-0.5
24-0.1-0.1
2511
261-0.4
27-0.25-0.47.387.23
28-0.5-0.17.137.53
29-1-0.56.637.13
30-1.5-0.756.136.88
31-2-15.636.63
32-2.5-1.15.136.53
33-3-1.754.635.88
34-3.5-2.754.134.88
35-4-33.634.63
36-4.5-3.53.134.13
37-5-3.752.633.88
38-5.5-42.133.63
39-6-4.11.633.53
40-7-60.631.63


In graph form:
26109
 

DeadlySplitter

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Acuna/Albies aren't good comparisons. It ultimately comes down to the personality of the player. Albies in particular was fine with a grossly team-friendly contract, so much so that there was public outcry how friendly it was for the team. X wanted to stay in Boston first & foremost and took a fair deal.

Betts has said he almost took an extension once out of sentimentality. I think Rob Bradford was reporting this in a WEEI article, wish I had a link. I think we've offered 8/200. then he consulted his parents and they said wait.

EDIT:found the link. https://weei.radio.com/articles/column/mookie-betts-explains-approach-behind-contract-stance
 

DJnVa

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You guys can call me a bad fan or whatever, with no understanding of the modern baseball economic system, and I get there are lots of other variables, but I want Mookie Betts playing for my favorite team.

And if he goes, I have no faith that we will put that savings to good use.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
It's a joke it has even gotten to this point.
If you're angry that it has gotten to this point, your anger should be primarily directed at Markus Lynn Betts*, because he has clearly stated that it's been his plan all along to let it get to this point (and beyond). Those of you who insist on ignoring this are really disrespecting Betts, because you're implying that he's playing coy and lying to the media to improve his negotiating position. You're treating him like Mr. Collins treated Lizzie Bennett. If he's telling the truth -- and I see no reason to doubt it -- then there is nothing the Red Sox could have done to sign him to this point, nor will there be anything they can do until November 2020.

EDIT: It probably needs saying -- though it shouldn't -- that I do not mean we should be angry at Mookie. There isn't anything to be angry about, though there is something to be worried about, and at some point in the next year-plus, there will quite possibly be something to be heartbroken about. I'm just saying that if you insist on being angry at somebody, Sox management is the wrong target.
 
Last edited:

OurF'ingCity

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If you're angry that it has gotten to this point, your anger should be primarily directed at Markus Lynn Betts, because he has clearly stated that it's been his plan all along to let it get to this point (and beyond). Those of you who insist on ignoring this are really disrespecting Betts, because you're implying that he's playing coy and lying to the media to improve his negotiating position. You're treating him like Mr. Collins treated Lizzie Bennett. If he's telling the truth -- and I see no reason to doubt it -- then there is nothing the Red Sox could have done to sign him to this point, nor will there be anything they can do until November 2020.
But if they were in better financial shape, would there be this much handwringing about whether we can keep him when he does hit free agency, or whether we have to trade him this offseason?
 

jon abbey

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If you're angry that it has gotten to this point, your anger should be primarily directed at Markus Lynn Betts, because he has clearly stated that it's been his plan all along to let it get to this point (and beyond). Those of you who insist on ignoring this are really disrespecting Betts, because you're implying that he's playing coy and lying to the media to improve his negotiating position. You're treating him like Mr. Collins treated Lizzie Bennett. If he's telling the truth -- and I see no reason to doubt it -- then there is nothing the Red Sox could have done to sign him to this point, nor will there be anything they can do until November 2020.
This is a good piece from a few days ago that gets into the specifics if people haven't seen it, it does seem like BOS probably never had a chance to keep him away from FA.

https://weei.radio.com/articles/column/mookie-betts-explains-approach-behind-contract-stance
 

The Needler

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I doubt it. The best we can do, IMO, is try to make some best estimate projections of WAR using some of the aging curves that Needler has provided (both phenom and non-phenom curves are in this article). Here are some quick back-of-the-envelope calculations I did using the aging curves for WAR/600 (I also included aging curves for phenoms, who generally maintain their ability level longer)

AgeWAR/600WAR/600Mookie AdjustMookie Adjust (Phenom)
23-0.25-0.5
24-0.1-0.1
2511
261-0.4
27-0.25-0.47.387.23
28-0.5-0.17.137.53
29-1-0.56.637.13
30-1.5-0.756.136.88
31-2-15.636.63
32-2.5-1.15.136.53
33-3-1.754.635.88
34-3.5-2.754.134.88
35-4-33.634.63
36-4.5-3.53.134.13
37-5-3.752.633.88
38-5.5-42.133.63
39-6-4.11.633.53
40-7-60.631.63


In graph form:
View attachment 26109
What's your WAR baseline here, fWAR, or bWAR? And it looks like you're using the WAR/600 curve to adjust Mookie's seasonal WAR. These little details can make a significant difference. I've got Mookie's fWAR/600 this year at 5.6, while his overall bWAR at 6.8.

ZIPS projects Mookie's WAR/600 at 5.97 next year, and 5.81 the year after, and overall WAR at 6.5 and 6.2, respectively. (And those were calculated before this season; I would expect the offseason numbers to be downgraded.) Pretty big starting point difference from your numbers.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Just a quick note that we and even the Sox front-office (or the burned out husk of what was once the front office) can project Betts' performance over the next X years and then assign a value to that. However its all irrelevant. You can do the same with real estate and other assets however what really matters is the market price - i.e. what other teams are prepared to pay.

I know we have $/WAR calculations out there but what if a front office, such as the aforementioned White Sox decides they need to pay a premium above that because they think they need to in order to attract high profile FAs? Or what if another club decides that Betts combination of skill, relatively young age and marketability means he deserves a more than a standard $/WAR based contract?

In short, it doesn't matter as much as what the local real estate values say about price/square foot as it does what underpins the amount other buyers are willing to pay (e.g. how much money can they borrow). Now you can certainly use your calculation to set a walk away price but if you are rigorous about sticking to your number, there is a very reasonable chance that you won't win the bidding war.

Finally, I don't get anyone who sees Betts' stance as anything other than fair. The guy has given them elite production for a bargain price for years now. He is criminally underpaid and deserves every dollar that his market will bear.

Let's not go back to the idiotic mentality that begrudges these players - who have a very short time to maximize their earnings and risk future money every time the step on to the field - the right to make as much as possible. If anyone deserves ire, its the greedy owners rather than the players. Yet some people still persist in this form of flat earth thinking.

Mookie already gave his "hometown team" a discount over the last few seasons. He should get his money and while people are entitled to think otherwise, I would argue that they aren't analyzing the economics of sports and baseball in particular correctly.
 

sean1562

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i dont begrudge the guy anything, he should sign where he wants. but im not gonna sit here and say that this team is "cheap" for not signing him to the biggest deal he gets offered when we have had top 5 payrolls for idk how long. sure, we made bad deals and that has hamstrung our ability to sign this guy to some mammoth contract but those bad deals lead to the WS last year. Hopefully Sale rebounds and looks like the HoF guy his trajectory suggested, we get Devers to sign an extension, and some of the younger guys in the minors pan out. It sucks mookie is probably gonna move on, but that is the nature of the beast sometimes.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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i dont begrudge the guy anything, he should sign where he wants. but im not gonna sit here and say that this team is "cheap" for not signing him to the biggest deal he gets offered when we have had top 5 payrolls for idk how long. sure, we made bad deals and that has hamstrung our ability to sign this guy to some mammoth contract but those bad deals lead to the WS last year. Hopefully Sale rebounds and looks like the HoF guy his trajectory suggested, we get Devers to sign an extension, and some of the younger guys in the minors pan out. It sucks mookie is probably gonna move on, but that is the nature of the beast sometimes.
I wouldn't call them cheap either - quite the contrary. They spend money but its stupid spending.

This decade alone, they have made a series of horrible decisions and yet managed to get bailed out on a few big ones by finding a greater fool; The problem is that unless they find that silly buyer for some of their more odious contracts, its going to cost them the best all around player the Sox have had since this ownership group took control of the team. That isn't cheap but its bad stewardship.
 

chrisfont9

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So you want them to pay Betts $38 million a year while having no cheap players to fill out the roster with because they sacrificed the farm to pay him that much. The point of having a good farm system is so that you can pay players like Mookie Betts $38 million a year because you'll get cheap production at other positions. Where are we going to get that cheap production if we keep waiting a few years to reset and start building up the talent? We would have to pay FA good money to fill out the roster around Betts or waste a few years of his career waiting for the farm to produce talent.
Do you think that’s what I said, get rid of the farm system for all time? I didn’t, because it’s a ridiculous straw man. We were talking about the short term goal of getting under the threshold in 2020. They have the team they have, which includes guys in the system working their way up. Eventually they’ll need to replenish the talent at the lowest levels. But you don’t dump Betts because of a year or two of bonus money.
 

Pitt the Elder

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What's your WAR baseline here, fWAR, or bWAR? And it looks like you're using the WAR/600 curve to adjust Mookie's seasonal WAR. These little details can make a significant difference. I've got Mookie's fWAR/600 this year at 5.6, while his overall bWAR at 6.8.

ZIPS projects Mookie's WAR/600 at 5.97 next year, and 5.81 the year after, and overall WAR at 6.5 and 6.2, respectively. (And those were calculated before this season; I would expect the offseason numbers to be downgraded.) Pretty big starting point difference from your numbers.
Good call, I was using fWAR, not WAR/600. I'll make those adjustments. I also took the average of his 23-26 seasons to determine his peak. Anyway, this is all rough calcs and I figure the right way to approach it is to get an envelope of possible/probable outcomes.
 

8slim

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If you're angry that it has gotten to this point, your anger should be primarily directed at Markus Lynn Betts*, because he has clearly stated that it's been his plan all along to let it get to this point (and beyond). Those of you who insist on ignoring this are really disrespecting Betts, because you're implying that he's playing coy and lying to the media to improve his negotiating position. You're treating him like Mr. Collins treated Lizzie Bennett. If he's telling the truth -- and I see no reason to doubt it -- then there is nothing the Red Sox could have done to sign him to this point, nor will there be anything they can do until November 2020.

EDIT: It probably needs saying -- though it shouldn't -- that I do not mean we should be angry at Mookie. There isn't anything to be angry about, though there is something to be worried about, and at some point in the next year-plus, there will quite possibly be something to be heartbroken about. I'm just saying that if you insist on being angry at somebody, Sox management is the wrong target.
Who’s angry at Mookie for potentially playing through to free agency? I’m certainly not. I think a player should use all the leverage available to them to extract the best contract possible. If the Sox make a sincere effort to sign him and Mookie decides to go elsewhere, I’ll wish him well and thank him for his time in Boston.

As others said, my frustration is directed at the FO because of the series of bad, big money deals they’ve signed off on that they seem to now be using as preemptive excuses for letting Betts go.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Do you think that’s what I said, get rid of the farm system for all time? I didn’t, because it’s a ridiculous straw man. We were talking about the short term goal of getting under the threshold in 2020. They have the team they have, which includes guys in the system working their way up. Eventually they’ll need to replenish the talent at the lowest levels. But you don’t dump Betts because of a year or two of bonus money.
We have 0 farm system as it is and you want to push it back another 2-3 years. Where is the cheap production coming from? It is 100% not a strawman. Unless the Sox get incredibly lucky, they are going to need to reset/rebuild in the next few years whether they have Mookie Betts or not.

You even said it yourself, this team needs to reset. If you want to rebuld with the $40 mil man on your roster, ok. To get to our short term goal, we are causing middle term damage, that damage being the farm.

edit: Short term thinking is why we are in the mess we are in.
 

Pitt the Elder

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In short, it doesn't matter as much as what the local real estate values say about price/square foot as it does what underpins the amount other buyers are willing to pay (e.g. how much money can they borrow). Now you can certainly use your calculation to set a walk away price but if you are rigorous about sticking to your number, there is a very reasonable chance that you won't win the bidding war.
If you're the Sox, I think you do need to set a walk-away price and you use that as the basis of your negotiation strategy. I understand that you're competiting in a market and another team can blow post your walk-away price, but I think a sign-him-at-all-costs approach is a bad idea. I love Mookie and I want him here for the rest of his career, but I think these negotiations require discipline from both sides. The challenge is trying to figure out where that line is. I think we can all agree that 15/500 is a bad idea and that 10/300 is too little to get the job done. So what's the upper limit of how far you're willing to go? 12/400? I'm not sure the right answer, but you need to make a credible attempt to figure it out.

Another key to a good negotiation is finding other issues to include in the negotiation, presumably things that both sides don't value equally, as these things provide flexibility to find a deal that works. For instance, maybe Mookie really values having an opt-out after his age 31 season to further maximize his market potential. The Sox clearly have no problem giving these out, so maybe that's an option. Or maybe he wants the Sox to donate $1M each year to the Jimmy Fund or charity of his choice or to have 20 tickets available for his friends for every home game or his own morning talk show on NESN. Anyway, who knows what those secondary issues are, but you might as well start trying to figure that out.

Finally, I don't get anyone who sees Betts' stance as anything other than fair. The guy has given them elite production for a bargain price for years now. He is criminally underpaid and deserves every dollar that his market will bear.
I agree, the man has a right to earn his money. No one begrudges your average person for going to top dollar, so Mookie should as well. I think Jon Abbey has written a lot about this, but the real crime is suppressing the ability of young ballplayers to go out and earn a market rate that reflects how they're actually performing. The current free-agent system is an institution designed to provide MLB owners with a cost-controlled labor pool that keeps teams' operational costs down. I have no idea how you change that - small-market teams, in particular, will fight any change to that system tooth and nail - but I think we can all recognize that it's unjust.
 

Cesar Crespo

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If you're the Sox, I think you do need to set a walk-away price and you use that as the basis of your negotiation strategy. I understand that you're competiting in a market and another team can blow post your walk-away price, but I think a sign-him-at-all-costs approach is a bad idea. I love Mookie and I want him here for the rest of his career, but I think these negotiations require discipline from both sides. The challenge is trying to figure out where that line is. I think we can all agree that 15/500 is a bad idea and that 10/300 is too little to get the job done. So what's the upper limit of how far you're willing to go? 12/400? I'm not sure the right answer, but you need to make a credible attempt to figure it out.

Another key to a good negotiation is finding other issues to include in the negotiation, presumably things that both sides don't value equally, as these things provide flexibility to find a deal that works. For instance, maybe Mookie really values having an opt-out after his age 31 season to further maximize his market potential. The Sox clearly have no problem giving these out, so maybe that's an option. Or maybe he wants the Sox to donate $1M each year to the Jimmy Fund or charity of his choice or to have 20 tickets available for his friends for every home game or his own morning talk show on NESN. Anyway, who knows what those secondary issues are, but you might as well start trying to figure that out.



I agree, the man has a right to earn his money. No one begrudges your average person for going to top dollar, so Mookie should as well. I think Jon Abbey has written a lot about this, but the real crime is suppressing the ability of young ballplayers to go out and earn a market rate that reflects how they're actually performing. The current free-agent system is an institution designed to provide MLB owners with a cost-controlled labor pool that keeps teams' operational costs down. I have no idea how you change that - small-market teams, in particular, will fight any change to that system tooth and nail - but I think we can all recognize that it's unjust.
Trade earlier FA for max contract length of 5 years.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
As others said, my frustration is directed at the FO because of the series of bad, big money deals they’ve signed off on that they seem to now be using as preemptive excuses for letting Betts go.
But this is backwards, as I said. "Letting Betts go" implies that some action on their part could ensure that he stays. And this is not the case. He has as much control of the situation as they do, and he has stated explicitly that he's choosing to use that control to wait until free agency and then get the best possible deal. In this circumstance it makes no sense whatsoever to be angry at the FO.
 

8slim

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But this is backwards, as I said. "Letting Betts go" implies that some action on their part could ensure that he stays. And this is not the case. He has as much control of the situation as they do, and he has stated explicitly that he's choosing to use that control to wait until free agency and then get the best possible deal. In this circumstance it makes no sense whatsoever to be angry at the FO.
The FO literally floated the idea of trading him to reporters a month ago. They then spent the past week proclaiming that payroll must be slashed.
 

JimD

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Seeing the (entirely predictable) backlash that has ensued, I just can't see the team trading Mookie this winter unless someone else blows them away - the financial and PR hit would be unlike anything the Henry/Werner group has seen in their tenure. Of course, they also can't come out and promise to the fans that Betts is now untouchable lest they lose negotiating leverage with Boras/JDM and other parties, so they are going to be stuck dealing with the negative fallout and hope that fan interest returns when Mookie shows up for spring training in Fort Myers.
 

lexrageorge

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If the Sox trade Betts because they are convinced that there is little to no likelihood of his staying here once he hits free agency, I can accept that as a rational approach. There is no rule that says that Betts automatically goes to the Sox if they are the largest bidder; he could very well decide that there are a handful of places he would prefer to Boston for whatever. We really don't know; he hasn't said anything publicly, other than that he wants to test the free agent market. If Boston were to be one of five bidders, it could mean that Boston has a 20% of keeping Betts. That is something that has to factor into the thinking of the Sox front office.

At the very least, the baseball operations department would not be doing their job if they weren't at least calling other teams to see what the trade market for Betts looks like. And, if the trade is handled correctly, there is still a chance the Sox could be a suitor for Betts' services next offseason.

However, if, OTOH, the team feels the need to trade Betts (or let him walk next year) simply because of financial constraints imposed upon them by existing contracts and artificial tax ceilings, I would be frustrated. That is not how good organizations are run. I can even accept that there is a limit to what they should pay Betts and for how long (even if I cannot articulate that limit). I just have difficulty accepting that the team could not afford to pay him the $30-35M AAV that is being discussed just so they can pay Eovaldi $17M. If that's the reason, Henry deserves as much blame as Dombrowski, if not more. The Sox front office somehow managed to pawn off the Ramirez and Sandoval decisions onto Cherington. As they say, fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.
 

jon abbey

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Seeing the (entirely predictable) backlash that has ensued, I just can't see the team trading Mookie this winter unless someone else blows them away - the financial and PR hit would be unlike anything the Henry/Werner group has seen in their tenure. Of course, they also can't come out and promise to the fans that Betts is now untouchable lest they lose negotiating leverage with Boras/JDM and other parties, so they are going to be stuck dealing with the negative fallout and hope that fan interest returns when Mookie shows up for spring training in Fort Myers.
It's a bit like Bumgarner this past season (although Mookie is currently and projects to be a much more valuable player going forward), the return they could get for a season of him is likely not enough to counterbalance the anger from the fan base if they move him.
 

OurF'ingCity

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If the Sox trade Betts because they are convinced that there is little to no likelihood of his staying here once he hits free agency, I can accept that as a rational approach
But in the context of discussing trading him this winter, how could they ever be "convinced" that Betts is likely not to re-sign, short of his agents telling them "he really doesn't like it in Boston and won't re-sign here unless you pay way over market price" which, of course, the agents will not do, even if true, because that hampers their negotiating power with other teams come next offseason.

I don't think anyone on here would really blame the Sox if we get to FA in 2020 and Mookie goes elsewhere despite a competitive offer from the Sox because he wants a new challenge or some other team puts in a ridiculous offer. What I think people are frustrated about is the sense from Sox ownership that they may be looking to trade him this offseason because they aren't even willing to present him with a competitive offer next offseason, which in many ways feels like a re-do of the Lester fiasco, although there are obvious differences.
 

lexrageorge

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But in the context of discussing trading him this winter, how could they ever be "convinced" that Betts is likely not to re-sign, short of his agents telling them "he really doesn't like it in Boston and won't re-sign here unless you pay way over market price" which, of course, the agents will not do, even if true, because that hampers their negotiating power with other teams come next offseason.
I realize that the front office is unlikely to ever be 100% certain of Betts' intentions. It could be that they have enough information to make an educated guess. Or it could be that their educated guess is that if Betts gets 5 competitive offers in free agency (including Boston's), there's a 20% chance that Betts stays.

I don't think anyone on here would really blame the Sox if we get to FA in 2020 and Mookie goes elsewhere despite a competitive offer from the Sox because he wants a new challenge or some other team puts in a ridiculous offer. What I think people are frustrated about is the sense from Sox ownership that they may be looking to trade him this offseason because they aren't even willing to present him with a competitive offer next offseason, which in many ways feels like a re-do of the Lester fiasco, although there are obvious differences.
I would be equally frustrated if the bolded was correct, and I do fear it may be. However, if they determine that there's an 80% risk of losing Betts for nothing more than a compensatory draft pick, regardless of the strength of their offer, should that influence their thinking with regards to trading him? And would that change our feelings about such a trade?
 

OurF'ingCity

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I would be equally frustrated if the bolded was correct, and I do fear it may be. However, if they determine that there's an 80% risk of losing Betts for nothing more than a compensatory draft pick, regardless of the strength of their offer, should that influence their thinking with regards to trading him? And would that change our feelings about such a trade?
Yes, it should. I think the mistake (possibly intentional on the part of ownership as a negotiating ploy) was to tie their ability to re-sign Mookie to their efforts to cut costs. "We may have to trade Mookie because we think there is a strong chance he will leave even if we make a competitive offer" comes across much differently than "we may have to trade Mookie because we need to stay under the luxury tax threshold and can't make a competitive offer to him while doing so." YMMV - maybe it's just semantics.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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If you're the Sox, I think you do need to set a walk-away price and you use that as the basis of your negotiation strategy. I understand that you're competiting in a market and another team can blow post your walk-away price, but I think a sign-him-at-all-costs approach is a bad idea. I love Mookie and I want him here for the rest of his career, but I think these negotiations require discipline from both sides. The challenge is trying to figure out where that line is. I think we can all agree that 15/500 is a bad idea and that 10/300 is too little to get the job done. So what's the upper limit of how far you're willing to go? 12/400? I'm not sure the right answer, but you need to make a credible attempt to figure it out.

Another key to a good negotiation is finding other issues to include in the negotiation, presumably things that both sides don't value equally, as these things provide flexibility to find a deal that works. For instance, maybe Mookie really values having an opt-out after his age 31 season to further maximize his market potential. The Sox clearly have no problem giving these out, so maybe that's an option. Or maybe he wants the Sox to donate $1M each year to the Jimmy Fund or charity of his choice or to have 20 tickets available for his friends for every home game or his own morning talk show on NESN. Anyway, who knows what those secondary issues are, but you might as well start trying to figure that out.



I agree, the man has a right to earn his money. No one begrudges your average person for going to top dollar, so Mookie should as well. I think Jon Abbey has written a lot about this, but the real crime is suppressing the ability of young ballplayers to go out and earn a market rate that reflects how they're actually performing. The current free-agent system is an institution designed to provide MLB owners with a cost-controlled labor pool that keeps teams' operational costs down. I have no idea how you change that - small-market teams, in particular, will fight any change to that system tooth and nail - but I think we can all recognize that it's unjust.
Agree on everything you wrote and to clarify, the Sox absolutely should have a walk away price. Unfortunately it feels as if it may be partially dictated by their bad contracts versus Betts' value alone.

Overall budget considerations are part of any business or household spending of course. However just as is the case with any endeavor, losing something dear because you foolishly spent on a luxury item suggests that you need to reevaluate your priorities.
 

8slim

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Yes, it should. I think the mistake (possibly intentional on the part of ownership as a negotiating ploy) was to tie their ability to re-sign Mookie to their efforts to cut costs. "We may have to trade Mookie because we think there is a strong chance he will leave even if we make a competitive offer" comes across much differently than "we may have to trade Mookie because we need to stay under the luxury tax threshold and can't make a competitive offer to him while doing so." YMMV - maybe it's just semantics.
Ownership has so thoroughly botched their public statements (and private leaks and story plants) on this that I think it's much more than just semantics. I have a large reservoir of goodwill for Henry. Four World Series titles is all that needs to be said in that regard. However, I have serious concerns about the FO's competence in terms of crafting and implementing a go-forward strategy.

I mean, they clearly leaked a story to The Athletic about how Henry started reconsidering his future with Dombrowski on the day of last year's WS parade due to DD's reluctance to bring the team's salary down... yet Henry approved the Sale extension three months later? It makes zero sense, and comes off (to me, anyway) as the FO retconning last year's offseason to justify DD's firing and looming payroll cuts.

All of which is to say, it's hard to take a claim of ""We may have to trade Mookie because we think there is a strong chance he will leave even if we make a competitive offer" seriously, when they've spent the past couple months not saying that at all.
 
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Van Everyman

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How they handle the Betts negotiation is in some ways as important as what they actually negotiate. The reputational hit the team would take for essentially selling off the city’s most popular athlete* would be far more than a PR nightmare. It would depress fans, ticket sales and possibly the clubhouse.

Estimating whether the cost of going over the luxury tax threshold to keep Mookie would be less than what it would cost to lose him has to be part of what ownership is contemplating right now.

* Other than Brady
 

RedOctober3829

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Gammons weighs in on the Betts situation. He thinks the Sox end up not trading him because they won't know what he's truly asking for until he tests the market. Also thinks JD leaves.

"Betts had a very good — likely top-six MVP — season, but since he is a free agent at the end of the 2020 season and Boston ownership wants to pare payroll, he will be sentenced to a winter of speculation. To trade a great player in the year he turns 28 is difficult, because to get another team to trade three building-block young players, the Red Sox must have a feel about whether or not he’s signable, and at this juncture Betts wants to test the market. So chances are the Red Sox will run it out as well, try to sign him, and try to rebuild the health and depth of the pitching staff even if, as expected, J.D. Martinez opts out and signs elsewhere."

https://theathletic.com/1254504/2019/10/01/gammons-how-to-choose-between-verlander-and-cole-and-the-rest-of-the-best/
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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Yes, it should. I think the mistake (possibly intentional on the part of ownership as a negotiating ploy) was to tie their ability to re-sign Mookie to their efforts to cut costs. "We may have to trade Mookie because we think there is a strong chance he will leave even if we make a competitive offer" comes across much differently than "we may have to trade Mookie because we need to stay under the luxury tax threshold and can't make a competitive offer to him while doing so." YMMV - maybe it's just semantics.
Clearly we're on opposite sides of this, but I think that the first quote is much worse. It's basically calling Mookie out, implying he doesn't like the team, the city, whatever.
 

chrisfont9

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We have 0 farm system as it is and you want to push it back another 2-3 years. Where is the cheap production coming from? It is 100% not a strawman. Unless the Sox get incredibly lucky, they are going to need to reset/rebuild in the next few years whether they have Mookie Betts or not.

You even said it yourself, this team needs to reset. If you want to rebuld with the $40 mil man on your roster, ok. To get to our short term goal, we are causing middle term damage, that damage being the farm.

edit: Short term thinking is why we are in the mess we are in.
I'm not sure we truly disagree on what a team needs, but I don't accept the notion that we have 0 farm system. The Sox stock up every year in the international market and the draft. Their farm system has plummeted in the rankings due to graduating a lot of players, including the three superstar talents that I'm hoping will be their cornerstone for a while (Mookie, Raffy, Xander), plus trades etc.... But the real weakness is lack of talent close to the majors. It's not worth ranking the crops of 16-17-year-olds they've been signing every single year because they're too far away to predict.

All of which has so little bearing on whether to sign Betts that it's not a reason not to sign him. It's speculative that you're missing out on anything by exceeding the cap in 2020, just as it's speculative to assume that signing him would mean they are over the cap for 2021, 2022, etc. Sign him and then figure the rest of it out.
 

lexrageorge

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Clearly we're on opposite sides of this, but I think that the first quote is much worse. It's basically calling Mookie out, implying he doesn't like the team, the city, whatever.
The quote is not what the front office should literally say. A better way to put it:

"We made a very difficult decision to trade one of the best young players in franchise history. We made this tough decision as we believe it is in the best interests of the ball club going forward as we seek to compete in both 2020 and in future years. We wish Mookie well, and we want everyone to know that this trade does not necessarily close to the book on Mookie's career in Boston."

I realize that last sentence may need more legalese to prevent a tampering charge, but it's intended to put out there that the team would be in competition for his services in the 2021 free agency bonanza.

For the record, I'm not in favor of trading Mookie. I would prefer the team take their chances on signing him. And I don't like the way this whole "under the cap" thing smells, especially if that becomes the tail that wags the dog. Just pointing out that there could be additional considerations in a Mookie trade than just cutting payroll in 2020.
 

shanks

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long time reader, infrequent poster, so be kind, please.

not really joking here but, what if:

1. sox trade him this offseason. get some minor blue chips

2. get under the luxury tax in 2020

3. resign mookie for 2021 for “market price”

we believe mookie is gonna test the market, i assume that means no matter the team he’s on. in this scenario, we accomplish the ownership goals of resetting the tax, get some farm system help, and get mookie back for (presumably) the money it would require to keep him anyway.

yanks kinda did that w/ chapman a few yrs ago.

(edit ps. didn’t realize i was piggybacking on the lexrageorge sentiment)
 
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Red(s)HawksFan

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long time reader, infrequent poster, so be kind, please.

not really joking here but, what if:

1. sox trade him this offseason. get some minor blue chips

2. get under the luxury tax in 2020

3. resign mookie for 2021 for “market price”

we believe mookie is gonna test the market, i assume that means no matter the team he’s on. in this scenario, we accomplish the ownership goals of resetting the tax, get some farm system help, and get mookie back for (presumably) the money it would require to keep him anyway.

yanks kinda did that w/ chapman a few yrs ago.

(edit ps. didn’t realize i was piggybacking on the lexrageorge sentiment)
It's not an outrageous possibility, except for the notion that they'd get blue chip prospects (plural) for him. I just don't see that happening for a one-year rental. The combination of desperation and relatively low cost is what yielded the Yankees the haul they got from Chapman. I don't see a team out there in the same or similar position to the Cubs in 2016 where they'd go hard, prospect-wise, on acquiring Mookie without being able to lock him up beyond 2020.

Trading multiple blue chippers for one year of Mookie strikes me as something that a team that has a closing window might do, but I can't identify a team that appears to be in such a position next year. There are teams that are strong contenders now that don't figure to slow down much for the next 2-3 years (Astros, Yankees, Dodgers), and there are up-and-coming teams with young cores who are unlikely to sell out just to win one title (Braves, for example).

The only team I can think of that could arguably be looking at a closing window, at least with the team they have, is the Red Sox. They're definitely in a position where they should go all out to win in 2020, and having Mookie around would certainly be helpful to that end.
 

chrisfont9

Member
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long time reader, infrequent poster, so be kind, please.

not really joking here but, what if:

1. sox trade him this offseason. get some minor blue chips

2. get under the luxury tax in 2020

3. resign mookie for 2021 for “market price”

we believe mookie is gonna test the market, i assume that means no matter the team he’s on. in this scenario, we accomplish the ownership goals of resetting the tax, get some farm system help, and get mookie back for (presumably) the money it would require to keep him anyway.

yanks kinda did that w/ chapman a few yrs ago.

(edit ps. didn’t realize i was piggybacking on the lexrageorge sentiment)
This isn't illogical but we have never seen it with a free agent of Mookie's stature. The fact that it worked with Chapman (and nobody else comes to mind) means that Chapman wasn't put off by having been traded. Chapman probably didn't have too many suitors, and even then it took a record contract to bring him back. It's not impossible, but for Mookie to get tossed out the door, and have probably 20 other offers, means the Sox wouldn't have much of a chance there. They may need to top the market no matter what, but his friendships or other organizational connections would be a possible tie-breaker that you'd be giving up by trading him. And replacing them with hard feelings.
 

8slim

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"We made a very difficult decision to trade one of the best young players in franchise history. We made this tough decision as we believe it is in the best interests of the ball club going forward as we seek to compete in both 2020 and in future years. We wish Mookie well, and we want everyone to know that this trade does not necessarily close to the book on Mookie's career in Boston."
If the Sox could use the mind eraser zapper from Men In Black to remove everyone's memories of the past 2 months, I suppose there's a universe where that statement could be palatable to a portion of the fan base. Honestly, I still think people would lose their minds, but I'm willing to entertain that it's possible. However, the past 2 months did happen, and there is no way, absent Mookie saying flat out that he will never, ever, ever sign a deal with Boston, that a statement like that would be swallowed whole now.
 

shanks

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Feb 10, 2006
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It's not an outrageous possibility, except for the notion that they'd get blue chip prospects (plural) for him. I just don't see that happening for a one-year rental. The combination of desperation and relatively low cost is what yielded the Yankees the haul they got from Chapman. I don't see a team out there in the same or similar position to the Cubs in 2016 where they'd go hard, prospect-wise, on acquiring Mookie without being able to lock him up beyond 2020.

Trading multiple blue chippers for one year of Mookie strikes me as something that a team that has a closing window might do, but I can't identify a team that appears to be in such a position next year. There are teams that are strong contenders now that don't figure to slow down much for the next 2-3 years (Astros, Yankees, Dodgers), and there are up-and-coming teams with young cores who are unlikely to sell out just to win one title (Braves, for example).

The only team I can think of that could arguably be looking at a closing window, at least with the team they have, is the Red Sox. They're definitely in a position where they should go all out to win in 2020, and having Mookie around would certainly be helpful to that end.
“multiple blue chips” was probably not an accurate way to say that. some minors of value that project as possible help as everyday players (as henry put it), and theoretically raises our minors from bottom 10% to mid-level rankings.

i’m kinda reading ownership statements, coupled w/ their contact extensions to sale, xander and eovaldi signing as maybe this has been their plan all along.

i’m also imagining a pretty competitive team going into 2021 with a refreshed tax hit tthat would be attractive to someone (mookie) looking for a long term contract. i think this especially true if sale needs ‘20 to get 100%.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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If the Sox could use the mind eraser zapper from Men In Black to remove everyone's memories of the past 2 months, I suppose there's a universe where that statement could be palatable to a portion of the fan base. Honestly, I still think people would lose their minds, but I'm willing to entertain that it's possible. However, the past 2 months did happen, and there is no way, absent Mookie saying flat out that he will never, ever, ever sign a deal with Boston, that a statement like that would be swallowed whole now.
I'm confused. What is it about the past 2 months that would need to be zapped to make that statement palatable? I'm not being contrary, I'm genuinely curious. It seems to me this situation has been unfolding in a kind of predictable slow-motion way for quite a while now, and I'm not sure what has changed so drastically recently.
 

8slim

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I'm confused. What is it about the past 2 months that would need to be zapped to make that statement palatable? I'm not being contrary, I'm genuinely curious. It seems to me this situation has been unfolding in a kind of predictable slow-motion way for quite a while now, and I'm not sure what has changed so drastically recently.
The trading Mookie trial balloon that was floated to reporters, and the cutting payroll comments of the past week.
 

jon abbey

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“multiple blue chips” was probably not an accurate way to say that. some minors of value that project as possible help as everyday players (as henry put it), and theoretically raises our minors from bottom 10% to mid-level rankings.
Not trying to attack this post, but using it as a jumping off point...

Fangraphs are the only ones so far who have tried to translate prospect quality into monetary value, both so systems can be rated overall and so it's easier to figure out fair deals involving both prospects and big leaguers. Their current rankings (updated frequently) are here:

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-list/farm-ranking?sort=-1,1&type=100&filter=&pos=&team=
You'll see that it would take about $75M in additional prospect value for BOS to move from 30th to 18th. That is the equivalent of three top 100 prospects, two hitters ($28M each) and one pitcher ($21M). Right now Fangraphs has 106 prospects rated 50 or above, so it corresponds very well to a top 100 list (and everyone between #38 and #106 is exactly a 50, only the top 37 are higher). Once you go below that (so the 107th best prospect in MLB on down), hitters who are 45+ are only $8M value, pitchers $6M.

TL/DR: It would take three top 100 prospects to move BOS from the 30th to the 18th ranked system right now, according to Fangraphs' system.