Mock away, you can mock away

Cellar-Door

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Aug 1, 2006
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This is the highest rated one I've gotten, and happens to also be my favorite. (100% public, Need:A lot, POS: a little only trded when on the clock with a team that expressed interest)
30090
 

Cellar-Door

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Aug 1, 2006
19,656
1 trade (admittedly an absurd one) and going BPA early gets me to an 88.7 score from PFF. No way I beat that ever:
30210

For those wondering, the player IND was so desperate to trade up for.... Kristian Fulton.

Edit- actually I bet if I really wanted to I could beat it because I don't think their grading factors in team needs enough, so instead of Sullivan I could have gone with like Logan Wilson.
 

RedOctober3829

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Jul 19, 2005
47,807
deep inside Guido territory
I did a 1-round mock. Let's see how wrong I am.

1. Cincinnati--Joe Burrow
2. Washington--Chase Young
3. Detroit--Jeff Okudah
4. LA Chargers (from NYG)--Justin Herbert
5. Miami--Tua Tagivailoa
6. NYG(from LA Chargers)--Jedrick Wills
7. Carolina--Isaiah Simmons
8. Arizona--Andrew Thomas
9. Jacksonville--Derrick Brown
10. Cleveland--Tristan Wirfs
11. NY Jets--Mekhi Beckton
12. Las Vegas--Henry Ruggs
13. Atlanta(from SF)--CJ Henderson
14. Tampa--Josh Jones
15. Denver--CeeDee Lamb
16. Philly(from SF via Atlanta)--Ezra Cleveland
17. Dallas--K'Lavon Chaisson
18. Miami--Xavier McKinney
19. Las Vegas--Kristian Fulton
20. Jacksonville--Javon Kinlaw
21. SF(via Philly)--Justin Jefferson
22. Minnesota--Jalen Reagor
23. Seattle(via NE)--Austin Jackson
24. New Orleans--Patrick Queen
25. Minnesota--Trevon Diggs
26. Miami--Cesar Ruiz
27. KC(from NE via Seattle)--Kenneth Murray
28. Baltimore--Yetur Gross-Matos
29. Indianapolis(via Ten)--Jordan Love
30. Green Bay--Denzel Mims
31. SF--Marlon Davidson
32. Denver(via NE from KC)--Lucas Niang
 

EL Jeffe

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Aug 30, 2006
957
I used Scott Wright's Big Board on fanspeak (I've been a fan of Wright's for a long time). I have a feeling SMU will like some of these picks.

R1/P23 TE COLE KMET NOTRE DAME (probably a slight reach, but high ceiling at a position of need with a reasonable floor)

R3/P23 C MATT HENNESSY TEMPLE (could start at OG if Thuney leaves or be a longterm replacement for Andrews)

R3/P34 DL RAEKWON DAVIS ALABAMA (two straight years of bad production after a Calais Campbell type sophomore year)

R3/P36 EDGE ANFERNEE JENNINGS ALABAMA (KVN replacement, checks lots of NE boxes)

R4/P19 LB SHAQUILLE QUARTERMAN MIAMI (Undersized tackling machine in the Elandon Roberts mold)

R4/P33 QB JAMES MORGAN FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (Starting NFL arm talent, needs development)

R5/P26 LB EVAN WEAVER CALIFORNIA (another tackling machine and core ST'er but limited athleticism)

R6/P16 S ALOHI GILMAN NOTRE DAME (core ST'er, over-aggressive at safety but has some talent)

R6/P25 WR QUINTEZ CEPHUS WISCONSIN (4.73 40 but plays faster and produces)

R6/P33 K TYLER BASS GEORGIA SOUTHERN (answered the lingering distance questions at the Senior Bowl)

R6/P34 LB CASEY TOOHILL STANFORD (Needs to get stronger, but nice frame and has some future edge potential)

R7/P27 EDGE JONAH WILLIAMS WEBER ST. (Workout warrior, lottery ticket type)
 

SMU_Sox

loves his fluffykins
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Jul 20, 2009
6,832
Dallas
Going to follow in @RedOctober3829 's lead and post my predictive 2020 first round mock:

1. CIN: Joe Burrow, QB, LSU
2. WAS: Chase Young, Edge, THE Ohio State and don't you forget it.
3. MIA trades pick 70 and pick 5 to get to 3. Mekhi Becton
4. NYG: Tristian Wirfs, OT, Iowa
5. DET: Jeff Okudah, CB, Ohio State
6. LAC: Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia
7. CAR: Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn
8. ATL trades 16 & 47: CJ Henderson, CB, Florida
9. JAX: Isaiah Simmons, LB, Clemson
10. TB: trades 14 & 76 to CLE: Jedrick Wills, OT, BAMA
11. NYJ: Ceedee Lamb, WR, OKLA
12. LV: Kenneth Murray, LB, OU
13. MIA: trades 18 and a future 1 to SF for Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon.
14. JAX: Trades 20 and 73 to CLE: Select Jordan Love, QB, Utah State.
15. DEN: Henry Ruggs, WR, BAMA
16. ARI: Austin Jackson, OT, USC
17. DAL: AJ Terrell, CB, Clemson
18. PHI: Trades 21 & 103 to SF: Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU
19. LV: K'Lavon Chaisson, Edge, LSU
20. CLE: Ezra Cleveland, OT, Boise State
21. SF: Javon Kinlaw, DT, South Carolina.
22. MIN: Jaylon Johnson, CB, Utah
23. LAC: Trades 37 & 71 & 151 & future 5 to NE: Tua, QB, BAMA
24. NO: Patrick Queen, LB, LSU
25. BAL: Trade 28 & 106 to MIN: Ross Blacklock, DT, TCU
26. MIA: Antoine Winfield Jr., FS, MIN
27. SEA: trade CIN 33 & 107 & 180: Josh Jones, OT, HOU
28. MIN: Cesar Ruiz, OC/OG, Michigan
29. TEN: Jeff Gladney, CB, TCU
30. GB: Yetur Gross-Matos, Edge, PSU
31. DEN: Trades 46 & 77 to SF: Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU
32. KC: D'Andrew Swift, RB, Georgia

Bonus:
33. SEA: Isaiah Wilson, OT, Georgia


Edit: Numbers selected

CB: 6
S: 1
LB: 3
Edge: 3
IDL: 3
Total Defense: 16
OT: 7
IOL: 1
RB: 1
TE: 0
WR: 4
QB: 4
Total Offense: 16

I did not intend to do a 50/50 split.
 
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SoxFanInPdx

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Jul 15, 2005
2,618
Portland, OR
Played around with the PFF Mock last night and came up with this. Not too bad at all and lots of fun. Thoughts on this from some of the others with more in-depth knowledge than me?

Edit: Attached the image, but couldn't get it to scale to a non-massive size.30310
 
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ehaz

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Sep 30, 2007
3,069
Going to follow in @RedOctober3829 's lead and post my predictive 2020 first round mock:

1. CIN: Joe Burrow, QB, LSU
2. WAS: Chase Young, Edge, THE Ohio State and don't you forget it.
3. MIA trades pick 70 and pick 5 to get to 3. Mekhi Becton
4. NYG: Tristian Wirfs, OT, Iowa
5. DET: Jeff Okudah, CB, Ohio State
6. LAC: Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia
7. CAR: Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn
8. ATL trades 16 & 47: CJ Henderson, CB, Florida
9. JAX: Isaiah Simmons, LB, Clemson
10. TB: trades 14 & 76 to CLE: Jedrick Wills, OT, BAMA
11. NYJ: Ceedee Lamb, WR, OKLA
12. LV: Kenneth Murray, LB, OU
13. MIA: trades 18 and a future 1 to SF for Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon.
14. JAX: Trades 20 and 73 to CLE: Select Jordan Love, QB, Utah State.
15. DEN: Henry Ruggs, WR, BAMA
16. ARI: Austin Jackson, OT, USC
17. DAL: AJ Terrell, CB, Clemson
18. PHI: Trades 21 & 103 to SF: Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU
19. LV: K'Lavon Chaisson, Edge, LSU
20. CLE: Ezra Cleveland, OT, Boise State
21. SF: Javon Kinlaw, DT, South Carolina.
22. MIN: Jaylon Johnson, CB, Utah
23. LAC: Trades 37 & 71 & 151 & future 5 to NE: Tua, QB, BAMA
24. NO: Patrick Queen, LB, LSU
25. BAL: Trade 28 & 106 to MIN: Ross Blacklock, DT, TCU
26. MIA: Antoine Winfield Jr., FS, MIN
27. SEA: trade CIN 33 & 107 & 180: Josh Jones, OT, HOU
28. MIN: Cesar Ruiz, OC/OG, Michigan
29. TEN: Jeff Gladney, CB, TCU
30. GB: Yetur Gross-Matos, Edge, PSU
31. DEN: Trades 46 & 77 to SF: Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU
32. KC: D'Andrew Swift, RB, Georgia

Bonus:
33. SEA: Isaiah Wilson, OT, Georgia


Edit: Numbers selected

CB: 6
S: 1
LB: 3
Edge: 3
IDL: 3
Total Defense: 16
OT: 7
IOL: 1
RB: 1
TE: 0
WR: 4
QB: 4
Total Offense: 16

I did not intend to do a 50/50 split.
Having Tua drop to NE and then trading away the pick to LAC would hurt me physically.
 

Mugsy's Jock

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Dec 28, 2000
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I used Scott Wright's Big Board on fanspeak (I've been a fan of Wright's for a long time). I have a feeling SMU will like some of these picks.

R1/P23 TE COLE KMET NOTRE DAME (probably a slight reach, but high ceiling at a position of need with a reasonable floor)

R3/P23 C MATT HENNESSY TEMPLE (could start at OG if Thuney leaves or be a longterm replacement for Andrews)

R3/P34 DL RAEKWON DAVIS ALABAMA (two straight years of bad production after a Calais Campbell type sophomore year)

R3/P36 EDGE ANFERNEE JENNINGS ALABAMA (KVN replacement, checks lots of NE boxes)

R4/P19 LB SHAQUILLE QUARTERMAN MIAMI (Undersized tackling machine in the Elandon Roberts mold)

R4/P33 QB JAMES MORGAN FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (Starting NFL arm talent, needs development)

R5/P26 LB EVAN WEAVER CALIFORNIA (another tackling machine and core ST'er but limited athleticism)

R6/P16 S ALOHI GILMAN NOTRE DAME (core ST'er, over-aggressive at safety but has some talent)

R6/P25 WR QUINTEZ CEPHUS WISCONSIN (4.73 40 but plays faster and produces)

R6/P33 K TYLER BASS GEORGIA SOUTHERN (answered the lingering distance questions at the Senior Bowl)

R6/P34 LB CASEY TOOHILL STANFORD (Needs to get stronger, but nice frame and has some future edge potential)

R7/P27 EDGE JONAH WILLIAMS WEBER ST. (Workout warrior, lottery ticket type)
Wound up with a similar result on PFN with some trade downs. Wish I had a more elite LB, whiffed on DL, and probably shouldn’t have picked three safeties, but not too bad...
38. Michael Pittman Jr. WR USC
trade icon
49. Cole Kmet TE Notre Dame
trade icon
98. Logan Wilson ILB Wyoming
100. Matt Hennessy C Temple
125. James Morgan QB FIU
139. Cameron Brown OLB Penn State
172. Alohi Gilman S Notre Dame
195. Tyler Bass K Georgia Southern
212. Javelin Guidry S Utah
213. Shaquille Quarterman ILB Miami
230. Geno Stone S Iowa
 

Cellar-Door

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Aug 1, 2006
19,656
So I tried using a future pick as a stand-in for Gronk, and found something infuriating with PFF. If you trade for a pick in a way that is not a direct trade down..... they force you to pick there. So if I trade for 139 I HAVE to make a pick there even when teams are interested in trading for it. Lot to like about PFF's mock simulator, but man it has some infuriating flaws that they actually put in intentionally that make it worse

Edit- OKay here is my mock. I tried not to go for a total ripoff in the trade down. The future picks represent THuney in the Detroit trade, and Gronk in the TB trade
30307
 
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Carbo Loading

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Dec 8, 2002
671
Vancouver, WA
So I took SMU's chart and mocked the rest of the draft on Fanspeak which is updated. This is what I came up with. I made one trade up in the 5th to get the CB.



30360
 

Cellar-Door

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OK 2-7 all trades use the Rich Hill trade chart and are pretty close to even though not exact.
30370
 

Cellar-Door

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Gonna bump this....
So PFF still has trade issues, so I used PFN because it will make you offers on the clock.
I didn't trade up once, and just either accepted or rejected offers made to me.....

Two VERY different drafts:
VERSION 1- QB FALL
15- Justin Fields QB OSU(LOL)
46- Rashod Bateman WR MIN
96- Joe Tryon EDGE WAS
120- Traded to CLE (selected Tutu Atwell) for 132, 170, 255
132- Osa Odighizuwa DT UCLA
139- David Moore OG Grambling St.
145- Kylin Hill RB Miss St.
159 Garrett Wallow LB TCU
170- Jamie Newman QB Georgia (felt like too good a value)
197- Derek Barnes LB Purdue
199 Briley Moore TE- KS St.
241- Riley Patterson K Memphis
255- Lamar Johnson S IND.

VERSION 2- TRADE DOWN
15- Traded to CHI (took Waddle) for 20 and 52
20- Christian Darrisaw OT VaTech
46- Jay Tufele DT USC
52- Carlos Basham EDGE Wake Forest
96- Elijah Moore- WR Mississippi
120- Traded to MIN (took Adrian Early) for 125 and 201
125- Tyree Gillespie S Missouri
139- Jamie Newman QB Georgia
145- Kylin Hill RB Miss St
159- Sage Surrat, WR Wake
197 Darrius Stills DL WVU
199-Errol Thompson LB, MS St.
201- Nick Eubanks, TE Michigan
241- Shawn Davis, S FLA

So only crossover is Hill and Newman...

Version 1 is probably preferred, definitely less talent, but a potential franchise QB.
Version 2 I ended up with more talent I think, with the first 4 really good players who all felt like steams where I goth them (particularly Moore).
 

Cellar-Door

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This one was interesting (PFN same rules, accept or reject offers made to me only):

At 15 I did something I could see happening and making people rage in the draft thread:
I traded down with Micah Parsons on the board (got 26, 59, 110)
26- Darrisaw
46- Alim McNeil
59- Rondale Moore
96- Joe Tryon
110- Traded with 241 for 126, 167, 187)
120- Kellen Mond
126- Ben Cleveland
139- Cam Sample
145- Kylin Hill
159- Jaelon Darden
167- Thomas Graham
187- KJ Britt
 

Cotillion

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Jun 11, 2019
734
Here's me just being stupid as I have no skill in this what so ever... only rule for the first couple of spots was pick somebody if they were at least half the pick number in draft grade otherwise trade (for later rounds it was try to get somebody at least 10 grades better if you can or pick if no one will trade). Otherwise it was load up for 2022 just to see what the simulation would let me get away with. Though I did use my early picks so I couldn't get a ton of high 2022, but I definitely have a lot of ammunition for the guy next year after I get fired.

15 Micah Parsons LB
46 Mac Jones QB
120 Hunter Long TE
121 Simi Fehoko WR
159 Drake Jackson C
201 Charles Snowden ED
202 Shane Buechele QB
225 Tariq Thompson S
240 Taquone Graham DI
244 Josh Ball T
256 Marcelino Ball CB

2022 Haul
R2 LV
R3 Houston
R3 Atlanta
R4 KC
R4 Pitt
R5 Mia
R6 Mia
R6 Pitt
R6 Minn
R7 Minn
R7 Pitt
R7 KC

Left the settings at the default other than speed.
 
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67YAZ

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Dec 1, 2000
3,057
This one was interesting (PFN same rules, accept or reject offers made to me only):

At 15 I did something I could see happening and making people rage in the draft thread:
I traded down with Micah Parsons on the board (got 26, 59, 110)
26- Darrisaw
46- Alim McNeil
59- Rondale Moore
96- Joe Tryon
110- Traded with 241 for 126, 167, 187)
120- Kellen Mond
126- Ben Cleveland
139- Cam Sample
145- Kylin Hill
159- Jaelon Darden
167- Thomas Graham
187- KJ Britt
If you can get a player like Darrisaw at 26, good deal. And I agree, Bill will probably see the board as pretty flat after the top 10 or so A move down feel inevitable to pick up more 2nd & 3rd round fodder.

PFN must have tweaked the software because trading up is a lot more costly this week.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
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Jul 15, 2005
26,300
Hingham, MA
If you can get a player like Darrisaw at 26, good deal. And I agree, Bill will probably see the board as pretty flat after the top 10 or so A move down feel inevitable to pick up more 2nd & 3rd round fodder.

PFN must have tweaked the software because trading up is a lot more costly this week.
Not sure, I just traded 15 and 145 for 10. That's not a trade Dallas would ever make

1614183583407.png
 

Mystic Merlin

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Sep 21, 2007
35,129
Hartford, CT
Didn’t someone get like two future firsts and a second to move from 3 to 6, too?

I have no idea how these simulations ascribe value. Any movement within the top ten with a top QB available equals RG3 trade value? Then you get a result like the one above, where 145 nets a jump from 15 to 10.

EDIT - I just ran a simulation where Wilson and Fields went 1-2, and I jumped from 15 to 3 to get Trevor Lawrence by offering 15, a future first and a future second. This thing is broken, sorry to say.
 
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tims4wins

PN23's replacement
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Jul 15, 2005
26,300
Hingham, MA
Didn’t someone get like two future firsts and a second to move from 3 to 6, too?

I have no idea how these simulations ascribe value. Any movement within the top ten with a top QB available equals RG3 trade value? Then you get a result like the one above, where 145 nets a jump from 15 to 10.

EDIT - I just ran a simulation where Wilson and Fields went 1-2, and I jumped from 15 to 3 to get Trevor Lawrence by offering 15, a future first and a future second. This thing is broken, sorry to say.
Yeah the trade valuations are all screwed up. I trade down all the time in the simulation and I can usually get something like 24 / 56 / 87 for 15. I doubt that would happen in the real world.
 

Cellar-Door

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Aug 1, 2006
19,656
Not planning to post every day, but I took a break from work, and this fall was almost perfect, made 1 tiny trade :
15- Trey Lance (doubtful, but sometimes a QB falls)
46- Zaven Collins
96- Amari Rodgers (only way this got better would have been if Moore had fallen 2 more spots to me)
120- Brady Christensen
139- Traded for 140 and 251 (Rams took Austin Watkins)
140- Cam Sample
145- Aaron Banks
159- Benjamin St.Juste
197- Tamorrion Terry
199-Paris Ford
241- Bryan Mills
251-Riley Patterson
 

Mugsy's Jock

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I love me some mocks, but I'm finding all the simulator software I'm aware of (PFN, PFF, Fanspeak) to be wildly off base in how slowly the big four QBs come off the board. I have a hard time picturing the big three (Lawrence, Wilson, Fields) getting past #4, and Lance won't fall below Carolina/Denver at #8/9. It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if all four were picked by #6.

This is all based on my advanced scouting and deep relationships inside NFL management.
 

Cellar-Door

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Aug 1, 2006
19,656
I love me some mocks, but I'm finding all the simulator software I'm aware of (PFN, PFF, Fanspeak) to be wildly off base in how slowly the big four QBs come off the board. I have a hard time picturing the big three (Lawrence, Wilson, Fields) getting past #4, and Lance won't fall below Carolina/Denver at #8/9. It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if all four were picked by #6.

This is all based on my advanced scouting and deep relationships inside NFL management.
I think we generally overrate the desire to trade up into the top 5 for the 2nd to 4th QB in a draft and the desire to trade out of the top 5.
I look at last year... Tua and Burrow were going 1-2 for sure, 4 QBs in the top 20 maybe Love even gets into the top 10-12 was the word.... Tua went 5th, Love fell to 26
2018- 4 top QBs, all rumored as potential #1 and a 5th high variance sure 1st rounder... last one goes at 10, and then Lamar the "risky" one almost falls out of the 1st.
2017- Mahomes and Watson go 10-12

I wouldn't be at all surprised if one of the top 4 falls to 10 or lower, and one of the top 3 falls to 5 or lower. In years with a bunch of QBs, sometimes they fall because a lot of teams have one or two valued above the rest, sometimes they fall because teams in the top 10 with a QB are in love with a different player and would rather take him than trade down.
 

Mugsy's Jock

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I think we generally overrate the desire to trade up into the top 5 for the 2nd to 4th QB in a draft and the desire to trade out of the top 5.
I look at last year... Tua and Burrow were going 1-2 for sure, 4 QBs in the top 20 maybe Love even gets into the top 10-12 was the word.... Tua went 5th, Love fell to 26
2018- 4 top QBs, all rumored as potential #1 and a 5th high variance sure 1st rounder... last one goes at 10, and then Lamar the "risky" one almost falls out of the 1st.
2017- Mahomes and Watson go 10-12

I wouldn't be at all surprised if one of the top 4 falls to 10 or lower, and one of the top 3 falls to 5 or lower. In years with a bunch of QBs, sometimes they fall because a lot of teams have one or two valued above the rest, sometimes they fall because teams in the top 10 with a QB are in love with a different player and would rather take him than trade down.
I hear you, but I think this year is unique in terms of how many teams have huge QB needs.

By my count:

Teams that NEED a starting QB in 2021 [7]: JAC, DEN, WAS, NE, CHI, CAR, NO)
Teams that NEED a starting QB in 2022 [1]: PIT
Teams that can't be super-confident in their 2021 QB, and don't have a current 2022 plan [2]: NYG, PHI

Assume that DeShaun Watson, Russell Wilson, Dan Prescott, Matt Ryan, Derek Carr, Jimmy G and Sam Darnold are all bonafide NFL quarterbacks and will be starting somewhere in FY21 and FY22. If they fill a hole on another team, they open up a hole where they are now.

Sure, Jameis, Mariota, Fitz, Cam, and Minshew can fill some of those slots... but probably not with such confidence a team wouldn't want a top-shelf developmental QB at the same time.