- Aug 1, 2006
This is the best mock draft I have ever seen in the history of mock drafts. Holy shit what a coup.
Having Tua drop to NE and then trading away the pick to LAC would hurt me physically.Going to follow in @RedOctober3829 's lead and post my predictive 2020 first round mock:
1. CIN: Joe Burrow, QB, LSU
2. WAS: Chase Young, Edge, THE Ohio State and don't you forget it.
3. MIA trades pick 70 and pick 5 to get to 3. Mekhi Becton
4. NYG: Tristian Wirfs, OT, Iowa
5. DET: Jeff Okudah, CB, Ohio State
6. LAC: Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia
7. CAR: Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn
8. ATL trades 16 & 47: CJ Henderson, CB, Florida
9. JAX: Isaiah Simmons, LB, Clemson
10. TB: trades 14 & 76 to CLE: Jedrick Wills, OT, BAMA
11. NYJ: Ceedee Lamb, WR, OKLA
12. LV: Kenneth Murray, LB, OU
13. MIA: trades 18 and a future 1 to SF for Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon.
14. JAX: Trades 20 and 73 to CLE: Select Jordan Love, QB, Utah State.
15. DEN: Henry Ruggs, WR, BAMA
16. ARI: Austin Jackson, OT, USC
17. DAL: AJ Terrell, CB, Clemson
18. PHI: Trades 21 & 103 to SF: Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU
19. LV: K'Lavon Chaisson, Edge, LSU
20. CLE: Ezra Cleveland, OT, Boise State
21. SF: Javon Kinlaw, DT, South Carolina.
22. MIN: Jaylon Johnson, CB, Utah
23. LAC: Trades 37 & 71 & 151 & future 5 to NE: Tua, QB, BAMA
24. NO: Patrick Queen, LB, LSU
25. BAL: Trade 28 & 106 to MIN: Ross Blacklock, DT, TCU
26. MIA: Antoine Winfield Jr., FS, MIN
27. SEA: trade CIN 33 & 107 & 180: Josh Jones, OT, HOU
28. MIN: Cesar Ruiz, OC/OG, Michigan
29. TEN: Jeff Gladney, CB, TCU
30. GB: Yetur Gross-Matos, Edge, PSU
31. DEN: Trades 46 & 77 to SF: Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU
32. KC: D'Andrew Swift, RB, Georgia
33. SEA: Isaiah Wilson, OT, Georgia
Edit: Numbers selected
Total Defense: 16
Total Offense: 16
I did not intend to do a 50/50 split.
Wound up with a similar result on PFN with some trade downs. Wish I had a more elite LB, whiffed on DL, and probably shouldn’t have picked three safeties, but not too bad...I used Scott Wright's Big Board on fanspeak (I've been a fan of Wright's for a long time). I have a feeling SMU will like some of these picks.
R1/P23 TE COLE KMET NOTRE DAME (probably a slight reach, but high ceiling at a position of need with a reasonable floor)
R3/P23 C MATT HENNESSY TEMPLE (could start at OG if Thuney leaves or be a longterm replacement for Andrews)
R3/P34 DL RAEKWON DAVIS ALABAMA (two straight years of bad production after a Calais Campbell type sophomore year)
R3/P36 EDGE ANFERNEE JENNINGS ALABAMA (KVN replacement, checks lots of NE boxes)
R4/P19 LB SHAQUILLE QUARTERMAN MIAMI (Undersized tackling machine in the Elandon Roberts mold)
R4/P33 QB JAMES MORGAN FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (Starting NFL arm talent, needs development)
R5/P26 LB EVAN WEAVER CALIFORNIA (another tackling machine and core ST'er but limited athleticism)
R6/P16 S ALOHI GILMAN NOTRE DAME (core ST'er, over-aggressive at safety but has some talent)
R6/P25 WR QUINTEZ CEPHUS WISCONSIN (4.73 40 but plays faster and produces)
R6/P33 K TYLER BASS GEORGIA SOUTHERN (answered the lingering distance questions at the Senior Bowl)
R6/P34 LB CASEY TOOHILL STANFORD (Needs to get stronger, but nice frame and has some future edge potential)
R7/P27 EDGE JONAH WILLIAMS WEBER ST. (Workout warrior, lottery ticket type)
|38.||Michael Pittman Jr. WR USC||
|49.||Cole Kmet TE Notre Dame||
|98.||Logan Wilson ILB Wyoming|
|100.||Matt Hennessy C Temple|
|125.||James Morgan QB FIU|
|139.||Cameron Brown OLB Penn State|
|172.||Alohi Gilman S Notre Dame|
|195.||Tyler Bass K Georgia Southern|
|212.||Javelin Guidry S Utah|
|213.||Shaquille Quarterman ILB Miami|
|230.||Geno Stone S Iowa|
If you can get a player like Darrisaw at 26, good deal. And I agree, Bill will probably see the board as pretty flat after the top 10 or so A move down feel inevitable to pick up more 2nd & 3rd round fodder.This one was interesting (PFN same rules, accept or reject offers made to me only):
At 15 I did something I could see happening and making people rage in the draft thread:
I traded down with Micah Parsons on the board (got 26, 59, 110)
46- Alim McNeil
59- Rondale Moore
96- Joe Tryon
110- Traded with 241 for 126, 167, 187)
120- Kellen Mond
126- Ben Cleveland
139- Cam Sample
145- Kylin Hill
159- Jaelon Darden
167- Thomas Graham
187- KJ Britt
Not sure, I just traded 15 and 145 for 10. That's not a trade Dallas would ever makeIf you can get a player like Darrisaw at 26, good deal. And I agree, Bill will probably see the board as pretty flat after the top 10 or so A move down feel inevitable to pick up more 2nd & 3rd round fodder.
PFN must have tweaked the software because trading up is a lot more costly this week.
Yeah the trade valuations are all screwed up. I trade down all the time in the simulation and I can usually get something like 24 / 56 / 87 for 15. I doubt that would happen in the real world.Didn’t someone get like two future firsts and a second to move from 3 to 6, too?
I have no idea how these simulations ascribe value. Any movement within the top ten with a top QB available equals RG3 trade value? Then you get a result like the one above, where 145 nets a jump from 15 to 10.
EDIT - I just ran a simulation where Wilson and Fields went 1-2, and I jumped from 15 to 3 to get Trevor Lawrence by offering 15, a future first and a future second. This thing is broken, sorry to say.
I think we generally overrate the desire to trade up into the top 5 for the 2nd to 4th QB in a draft and the desire to trade out of the top 5.I love me some mocks, but I'm finding all the simulator software I'm aware of (PFN, PFF, Fanspeak) to be wildly off base in how slowly the big four QBs come off the board. I have a hard time picturing the big three (Lawrence, Wilson, Fields) getting past #4, and Lance won't fall below Carolina/Denver at #8/9. It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if all four were picked by #6.
This is all based on my advanced scouting and deep relationships inside NFL management.
I hear you, but I think this year is unique in terms of how many teams have huge QB needs.I think we generally overrate the desire to trade up into the top 5 for the 2nd to 4th QB in a draft and the desire to trade out of the top 5.
I look at last year... Tua and Burrow were going 1-2 for sure, 4 QBs in the top 20 maybe Love even gets into the top 10-12 was the word.... Tua went 5th, Love fell to 26
2018- 4 top QBs, all rumored as potential #1 and a 5th high variance sure 1st rounder... last one goes at 10, and then Lamar the "risky" one almost falls out of the 1st.
2017- Mahomes and Watson go 10-12
I wouldn't be at all surprised if one of the top 4 falls to 10 or lower, and one of the top 3 falls to 5 or lower. In years with a bunch of QBs, sometimes they fall because a lot of teams have one or two valued above the rest, sometimes they fall because teams in the top 10 with a QB are in love with a different player and would rather take him than trade down.