MLB Offseason 2020 News & Notes

Seels

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people saying arms race between LAD and SDP - the Dodgers are going to win that division by 15 games, lol.
 

HriniakPosterChild

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My understanding is that every team ultimately has to be credited at some point for what they actually pay a player. So in your scenario, I believe that, yes, the first three years would be a 12 million cap hit, but then if he opted out after that the Mets would be assessed an $84 million single-year hit to factor in the money that had been paid but never counted toward the tax.
This is not too different from how Theo and Boras structured Beltre’s one year “pillow deal,” IIRC. There was a bogus 1 year player option for play money that temporarily reduced the luxury tax hit for Boston, but eventually the piper did get paid the proper tax.
 

DeadlySplitter

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So in that case the Dodgers will be holding the bag on a 17M cap hit (he will have been paid 85M, 68M cap hit over two years) in 2023.

How much of this is the Dodgers thinking the CBA is going to completely change in 2022?
 

EvilEmpire

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people saying arms race between LAD and SDP - the Dodgers are going to win that division by 15 games, lol.
Big picture, I think that is likely.

But for me, when I said arms race, I was thinking specifically about the race to acquire good pitching between those two teams.

SD: Darvish, Snell, Lamet, Paddack, Musgrove
LAD: Kershaw, Bauer, Buehler, Price, Urias

You know, an arms race.
 

Scoops Bolling

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I don't know much about Edwin Rios. Seems like their 3B situation isn't great, and losing Quique means they need a solid utility guy or two.
It wouldn't shock me if the Dodgers turned Will Smith into Russell Martin 2.0, and had him split time between 3B and C. With Smith, Barnes, and Ruiz the Dodgers had a glut behind the dish, and Smith has the athleticism to handle the corner (and I think may have gotten some snaps there in AAA?) as well as the kind of bat the team will want in the lineup as close to everyday as possible.

I do wonder who the odd man out in the rotation ends up being. Like, Trevor May can't be happy if he ends up in relief. I'd guess it'd be Urias, but who knows with the Dodgers.
 

RedOctober3829

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So in that case the Dodgers will be holding the bag on a 17M cap hit (he will have been paid 85M, 68M cap hit over two years) in 2023.

How much of this is the Dodgers thinking the CBA is going to completely change in 2022?
Why would the Dodgers have a $17 million hit if he opts out of the contract? There usually is a buyout amount the player gets that is like half the contract amount.
 

amRadio

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Trevor Bauer is a deeply overrated pitcher. Him getting this kind of cash is going to screw the SP market up for a while. Now anybody who goes on a three year run of ~3.50 ERA ball is going to command north of 30MM annually easily.
 

radsoxfan

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40/45/17 ... as long as he's healthy and still moderately effective 2023 is a dummy year.
Yeah, interesting set-up. A nice 17M golden parachute for Bauer if things go south in the next 2 seasons.

Otherwise, more like a 2/85 deal with a mid contract opt out.

As a pitcher it's always nice to get the mega-long term deal but even so, this is a pretty sweet outcome for Bauer.
 

DeadlySplitter

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My understanding is that every team ultimately has to be credited at some point for what they actually pay a player. So in your scenario, I believe that, yes, the first three years would be a 12 million cap hit, but then if he opted out after that the Mets would be assessed an $84 million single-year hit to factor in the money that had been paid but never counted toward the tax.

So while I do think a team could play some games using player options to effectively defer a tax hit to later seasons, I don't think it would ever be as dramatic as the scenario you outline.
Why would the Dodgers have a $17 million hit if he opts out of the contract? There usually is a buyout amount the player gets that is like half the contract amount.
was basing on the above quote, I don't see a buyout
 

scottyno

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Trevor Bauer is a deeply overrated pitcher. Him getting this kind of cash is going to screw the SP market up for a while. Now anybody who goes on a three year run of ~3.50 ERA ball is going to command north of 30MM annually easily.
If they only sign for 2 years then they're probably worth that. He's getting that kind of money because it's 2 years and not the 7-10 that aces have been signing for lately
 

Kliq

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Bauer to me is an inconsistent pitcher who is the exact kind of guy who would thrive in a shortened, screwball season that could then be parlayed into a big contract. Good for him and I guess the deal only being three years saves LA some of the concern if he turns back into a pumpkin, but I wouldn't want any part of a deal like that.
 

Danny_Darwin

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I don't know much about Edwin Rios. Seems like their 3B situation isn't great, and losing Quique means they need a solid utility guy or two.
Well, this was sort of my thinking, either Adames or Seager could move to third for this year with Adames permanently taking over short of Seager leaves at year’s end. The Dodgers were linked to Lindor for a long time (they offered Verdugo for him at one point!), so it’s not totally implausible to think they’re willing to get another shortstop despite Seager’s presence.

FWIW, the trade simulator says May would be too much and Gonsolin wouldn’t be enough.
 

nattysez

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Trevor Bauer is a deeply overrated pitcher. Him getting this kind of cash is going to screw the SP market up for a while. Now anybody who goes on a three year run of ~3.50 ERA ball is going to command north of 30MM annually easily.
If I'm the Padres, I ask to have his hands checked two pitches into his first start against me. Bauer's using something other than pine tar to get that crazy spin rate.
 

BornToRun

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Bauer to me is an inconsistent pitcher who is the exact kind of guy who would thrive in a shortened, screwball season that could then be parlayed into a big contract. Good for him and I guess the deal only being three years saves LA some of the concern if he turns back into a pumpkin, but I wouldn't want any part of a deal like that.
Bauer is a douche and I hope he gets lit up in every start. Watching him succeed is painful to see.
 

OurF'ingCity

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So in that case the Dodgers will be holding the bag on a 17M cap hit (he will have been paid 85M, 68M cap hit over two years) in 2023.

How much of this is the Dodgers thinking the CBA is going to completely change in 2022?
I'm pretty sure that's correct. But it's still in the Dodgers' interest from a tax perspective for him to opt-out because they'll be on the hook for the full $34m AAV if he doesn't, as opposed to $17m if he does.

I suspect some of this is a hope that the CBA will be totally different by then, and some of it is just the usual pushing back obligations that any contender will try to do to maximize the strength of the team in the short term.

Why would the Dodgers have a $17 million hit if he opts out of the contract? There usually is a buyout amount the player gets that is like half the contract amount.
A buyout would be for a team option, not a player option. In this case if it had been a team option for the final year with a buyout of, say, $10m, then the $10m would be pro-rated and included in the AAV now and if the team exercised the option they'd be credited for the amount already assessed (so in effect they'd get LT hits of 37.3m instead of 34m the first two years, but then a hit of only $27.3m in the third year). But since it's Bauer's option and not the team's I don't think any of that applies.
 

EnochRoot

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Big picture, I think that is likely.

But for me, when I said arms race, I was thinking specifically about the race to acquire good pitching between those two teams.

SD: Darvish, Snell, Lamet, Paddack, Musgrove
LAD: Kershaw, Bauer, Buehler, Price, Urias

You know, an arms race.
The Dodgers should be looking to move Price.

Kershaw, Buehler, Bauer, May, Urias. Move Gonsolin to the pen. Not sure when he'll be up, but Josiah Gray has been making short work of MiLB hitters. He's slated to make his arrival at some point this summer.

This was about keeping Bauer out of SD or NYM.
 

OurF'ingCity

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Where is LA on the CBT? How much is Bauer 2021 actually going to cost them?
If Spotrac is right, Bauer pushes them well into the luxury tax (about $30m over), which will cost them another $10m on top of the (likely) $85m they will actually be paying him. But the Dodgers were under the threshold last year and in 2019 so they don't need to worry about the repeater tax for a while.
 

BornToRun

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Care to explain why you think he's a douche? Game threading on the main board is not encouraged.






Sorry to pull the discussion off topic but there’s a few sources. I’ll leave it there.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Price has already indicated that he is returning.

He should be well rested and his contract is heavily subsidized. Seems like the Dodgers could use him.
Yes, I am asking whether there may be something going on behind the scenes. Just speculation...
 

grimshaw

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Trevor Bauer is a deeply overrated pitcher. Him getting this kind of cash is going to screw the SP market up for a while. Now anybody who goes on a three year run of ~3.50 ERA ball is going to command north of 30MM annually easily.
The years on his deal and his age made the price right. Pitchers at their peak at his age are going to get paid. I mean he has been absolutely dominant two of the last three seasons too.
 

Oppo

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The years on his deal and his age made the price right. Pitchers at their peak at his age are going to get paid. I mean he has been absolutely dominant two of the last three seasons too.
Absolutely, paying a premium for 1-3 years is such a better investment than these 6-9 year deals. Sure the AVV is lower but those deals can easily turn into albatrosses.
 

nighthob

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Bauer is a douche and I hope he gets lit up in every start. Watching him succeed is painful to see.
I can’t see how he’s going to get away with the Trevor Bauer act in the politically charged LA climate. The calls to boycott the Dodgers will start after his first twitter trolling of the year.

The Dodgers should be looking to move Price.

Kershaw, Buehler, Bauer, May, Urias. Move Gonsolin to the pen. Not sure when he'll be up, but Josiah Gray has been making short work of MiLB hitters. He's slated to make his arrival at some point this summer.

This was about keeping Bauer out of SD or NYM.
True, they get to trade him to a team of their choosing after he wears out his welcome in LA.
 
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jon abbey

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Andrus was Texas’ most popular player. They continue to alienate their fans, which are becoming fewer and fewer.
They had already announced he was being benched, I think fan bases care like 90 percent about winning.
 

VORP Speed

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Friedman has been trying to sell the super high AAV, shorter term contracts for years and he finally got someone to bite. Was it Harper where there was a bunch of smoke around that kind of offer from LA? Even going back to his Rays days, there had been talk about that kind of approach, although he didn’t have the checkbook there to ever offer a sky high AAV.
 

jon abbey

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The Phillies still badly need a CF, but without any bidding competition, not sure JBJ can get more than 2/22 or so from them.
 

VORP Speed

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Kiermaier has 2/22 remaining, is basically the same player as JBJ, and is very available. Rays would prob eat a significant chunk of salary if they got a good prospect.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Friedman has been trying to sell the super high AAV, shorter term contracts for years and he finally got someone to bite. Was it Harper where there was a bunch of smoke around that kind of offer from LA? Even going back to his Rays days, there had been talk about that kind of approach, although he didn’t have the checkbook there to ever offer a sky high AAV.
Bauer seems like the prototypical candidate for the deal, given his previous statements on wanting to sign only one year contracts. Not surprising that he'd be the one to go for this. It's effectively a series of one year deals.