MLB Hot Stove Rumours Thread

Rasputin

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Rudy Pemberton said:
Because you don't give a guy $10M to be a starter, and then a month later sign someone else to take his place? They pretty clearly see Masterson as part of the rotation (and Kelly, too- although he's easier to move to the pen).

Adding a sixth starter and bumping Masterson to the pen makes no sense. It seems really unlikely they were in on Shields recently; if you have any evidence to the contrary, please share.
 
Because plans can't change? I mean, they make contact with Shields' agents and are told it will take X to sign him. They don't want him at that money. The market tells Shields that nobody else wants him at that money and his demands come down. You're telling me that they wouldn't even consider signiing him for a number they're comfortable with because they signed Justin Motherfucking Masterson. That's lunacy.
 
WHY THE HELL IS IT EASIER TO MOVE KELLY TO THE PEN?
 
Adding another starter and bumping Masterson to the pen would make a ton of sense if the starter is a top of the rotation guy who is going to be the best pitcher on the staff from Day 1.
 
Of course I don't have any evidence. That's what this meant:
 
Rasputin said:
 
You mean other than that they were tied to Shields all off season, that he fits a need, that he signed for just a tad more than they offered Lester last Spring, and that pretty much everyone thought he was going to get a better contract than what he got?
 
If so, then no.
 

JohntheBaptist

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Ras, get over yourself.
 
It really is simple--Masterson was pursued as a starter and signed based at least in part on this. It was then made clear to everyone upon his signing that that's where the Red Sox are interested in him pitching. Joe Kelly was given none of those assurances, is younger, and does not have Masterson's track record. You could easily make a case that either will be more effective as a SP next year, so it isn't a slam dunk in either direction for strictly on-the-field reasons.
 
It's easier to move Joe Kelly of the two to the bullpen for that reason, and were they to have signed Shields, that's almost definitely what would have happened. So, you're wrong, even though you used the caps lock and everything. We get you're not a big Masterson guy, but where that concerns what the Sox are going to do, no one gives a fuck.
 

SydneySox

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Rasputin said:
 
Because plans can't change? I mean, they make contact with Shields' agents and are told it will take X to sign him. They don't want him at that money. The market tells Shields that nobody else wants him at that money and his demands come down. You're telling me that they wouldn't even consider signiing him for a number they're comfortable with because they signed Justin Motherfucking Masterson. That's lunacy.
 
WHY THE HELL IS IT EASIER TO MOVE KELLY TO THE PEN?
 
Adding another starter and bumping Masterson to the pen would make a ton of sense if the starter is a top of the rotation guy who is going to be the best pitcher on the staff from Day 1.
 
Of course I don't have any evidence. That's what this meant:
 
 
It's probably time for you to take a break there, fella.
 
Maybe check back with us in around, say,  August, we'll see how you're feeling.
 

TomRicardo

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SydneySox said:
 
It's probably time for you to take a break there, fella.
 
Maybe check back with us in around, say,  August, we'll see how you're feeling.
 
The Red Sox will be well on their way to 100 wins by then
 

Rasputin

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JohntheBaptist said:
Ras, get over yourself.
 
It really is simple--Masterson was pursued as a starter and signed based at least in part on this. It was then made clear to everyone upon his signing that that's where the Red Sox are interested in him pitching. Joe Kelly was given none of those assurances, is younger, and does not have Masterson's track record. You could easily make a case that either will be more effective as a SP next year, so it isn't a slam dunk in either direction for strictly on-the-field reasons.
 
It's easier to move Joe Kelly of the two to the bullpen for that reason, and were they to have signed Shields, that's almost definitely what would have happened. So, you're wrong, even though you used the caps lock and everything. We get you're not a big Masterson guy, but where that concerns what the Sox are going to do, no one gives a fuck.
 
Joe Kelly was acquired as a starter just as much as Justin Masterson was. As a starter, his track record consists of two years with an ERA+ over 84. They were well over 84, I grant you, but his best season was four years ago and even at the time, nobody thought it was anything but a fluke. He's a guy whose upside is slightly better than league average and whose huge platoon split is begging for a bullpen role. Half the reason he's slated for the rotation is so there's an easily identifiable person to get bumped from the rotation when Owens or Rodriguez are ready.
 
Kelly's platoon differential is literally about half as big as Masterson's, just looking at their starter numbers, Kelly is the guy who keeps folks off the bases better. Kelly walks a little more than three per nine, Masterson has been higher than that every year except 2011. Masterson strikes out more to the tune of a batter and a quarter per nine innings.
 
And the argument that Masterson should be starting over Kelly is what exactly? The 0.22 difference in their FIP? The 0.25 difference in their xFIP?
 
There's not that much difference in their overall quality, Masterson is the one that would benefit the most from hand selecting the batters he faces, and Kelly, by virtue of being younger, is the one more likely to improve on his previous baseline.
 
But Masterson is obviously the starter because why?
 
The real reason is that he's the veteran, not because there's any actual logic behind it.
 
SydneySox said:
 
It's probably time for you to take a break there, fella.
 
Maybe check back with us in around, say,  August, we'll see how you're feeling.
 
I'll be hot. Very, very hot.
 
 
TomRicardo said:
 
The Red Sox will be well on their way to 100 wins by then
 
I'm fairly certain the Sox will indeed have most of those 100 wins by August. The end of August, at least.
 

JohntheBaptist

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Rasputin said:
 
blah blah blah
 
But Masterson is obviously the starter because why?
 
Again, no one cares what you think in assessing the personnel as it relates to this conversation. To answer your question, relevant to what was being discussed: because the Red Sox said he is. That's what the conversation was about. That's what Rudy meant when he said "it is much easier to move Joe Kelly to the bullpen" and "adding a sixth starter and bumping Masterson to the bullpen makes no sense." Because it clearly is, and it clearly wouldn't, based on what the Red Sox have planned--which does not factor in "what would Ras do?"
 
Ease off the caps lock, Professor.
 

Danny_Darwin

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Rasputin said:
But Masterson is obviously the starter because why?
 
The real reason is that he's the veteran, not because there's any actual logic behind it.
 
 
Isn't the simpler explanation that Kelly has more extensive (and recent) experience as a reliever than Masterson? Best as I can tell, the latter has only appeared in 15 games he didn't start since he got traded to Cleveland. Kelly didn't appear in relief last year, but he appeared in relief 30 times in '12 and '13. 
 
Also, MLB rumors thread.
 

JohntheBaptist

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Danny_Darwin said:
 
Isn't the simpler explanation that Kelly has more extensive (and recent) experience as a reliever than Masterson? Best as I can tell, the latter has only appeared in 15 games he didn't start since he got traded to Cleveland. Kelly didn't appear in relief last year, but he appeared in relief 30 times in '12 and '13. 
 
Also, MLB rumors thread.
 
That and the whole, "Hey Justin, if you'd be interested signing with us--we see you as a starter, and plan to say as much once we sign you." thing. Might be one of those things you stick to after promising it going into the season, especially if you have a young former reliever with an already tenuous grasp on a spot as the alternative.
 

Rasputin

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JohntheBaptist said:
 
Again, no one cares what you think in assessing the personnel as it relates to this conversation. To answer your question, relevant to what was being discussed: because the Red Sox said he is. That's what the conversation was about. That's what Rudy meant when he said "it is much easier to move Joe Kelly to the bullpen" and "adding a sixth starter and bumping Masterson to the bullpen makes no sense." Because it clearly is, and it clearly wouldn't, based on what the Red Sox have planned--which does not factor in "what would Ras do?"
 
Ease off the caps lock, Professor.
 
This is just factually incorrect. He didn't say the Red Sox think it's easier to move him to the pen or that the Red Sox think adding a sixth starter and bumping Masterson made no sense, he said "It is" easier and "it makes no sense."
 

JohntheBaptist

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Rasputin said:
 
This is just factually incorrect. He didn't say the Red Sox think it's easier to move him to the pen or that the Red Sox think adding a sixth starter and bumping Masterson made no sense, he said "It is" easier and "it makes no sense."
 
Exactly. Speaking in the context of the reality we now exist in, the one in which the Red Sox have clearly stated their plans. So: not factually incorrect. You asked him why we're so sure it would be Kelly bumped and not Masterson. He gave the correct response (post #524), and you veered off into frothing mouth-ville giving us all info on what you'd do which, while fascinating as always--not super relevant.