MLB Free Agent Predictions

E5 Yaz · Oct 31, 2019

n/m, fixed

Wingack · Oct 31, 2019

Didn’t realize Ryu was a FA. He is an interesting option.

Murderer's Crow · Oct 31, 2019

1. Gerrit Cole (Yankees)

3. Stephen Strasburg* (Nationals)
4. Zach Wheeler (Astros)
5. Aroldis Chapman* (Mets)

7. Madison Bumgarner (Braves)

10. Hyun-Jin Ryu (Dodgers)

I think this is how Chapman and the big free agent starters will shake out. If the Yankees lose out on Cole, they probably go hard after Wheeler. Can't see them being interested in anyone else on the list, including Bumgarner.

sean1562 · Oct 31, 2019

i cant imagine that the nats let both stras and rendon walk the year after winning the WS. Their two biggest homegrown stars of the first stretch of dominance in their history, after letting Harper walk last year? I guess I can see them throwing Kieboom at 3b if Rendon walks but I just cant see them not getting at least one of those guys. Ryan Zimmerman's contract is off the books after this year too so they save some money there as well.

Mugsy's Jock · Oct 31, 2019

1. Gerrit Cole--Padres
2. Anthony Rendon--Angels
3. Stephen Strasburg*--Nats
4. Zach Wheeler--MFY
5. Aroldis Chapman*--Rangers
6. JD Martinez*--White Sox
7. Madison Bumgarner--Phillies

10. Hyun-Jin Ryu--Braves

13. Didi Gregorius--Giants

16. Will Smith--Astros

18. Cole Hamels--Rangers
19. Yasiel Puig--A's
20. Brett Gardner--Yankees
21. Jose Abreu--White Sox
22. Dellin Betances--Blue Jays

IpswichSox · Oct 31, 2019

sean1562 said:
i cant imagine that the nats let both stras and rendon walk the year after winning the WS. Their two biggest homegrown stars of the first stretch of dominance in their history, after letting Harper walk last year? I guess I can see them throwing Kieboom at 3b if Rendon walks but I just cant see them not getting at least one of those guys. Ryan Zimmerman's contract is off the books after this year too so they save some money there as well.

Cots has the Nats at $108.7 million under contract for 2020, assuming Strasburg stays. They potentially have several serious needs but also a lot of flexibility to keep the window open.

Tokyo Sox · Oct 31, 2019

Probably not own-thread worthy so I'll stick it here: two Japanese players will look to jump to MLB this season:

Yoshitomo Tsutsugo will be posted by the Yokohama DeNA (read DNA) Baystars, so not strictly a free agent. He gets on base and has decent pop, the most common comp in the media has been Schwarber, though this guy disagrees. Speculation is that Tsutsugo might land at 1B/DH in MLB, though he's mostly been a corner OF here. He'll turn 28 later this month.

Seibu Lions fan favorite leadoff hitter Shogo Akiyama is going to file for international free agency. He's consistently a .300/.390 hitter and a good defensive OF, but is already 31. He's hit 30+ 2B and 20+ HR each of the last the years but at this point probably profiles as a 4th OF.

Tsutsugo probably merits consideration in the OP Top-25 FA list; Akiyama does not.

EDIT: Akiyama apparently suffered a fracture in his right foot yesterday; not sure if this will impact his move.

VORP Speed · Nov 1, 2019

I predict Puig to the Rays. Combines with Diaz to form the 100% Cuban Bash Brothers.

chawson · Nov 3, 2019

1. Gerrit Cole - Dodgers
2. Anthony Rendon - Braves
3. Stephen Strasburg* - Nationals
4. Zach Wheeler - Astros
5. Aroldis Chapman* - Yankees
6. JD Martinez* - White Sox
7. Madison Bumgarner - Angels
8. Yasmani Grandal - Braves
9. Josh Donaldson - Angels
10. Hyun-Jin Ryu - Phillies
11. Nick Castellanos - Cubs
12. Marcell Ozuna - Giants
13. Didi Gregorius - Yankees
14. Jake Odorizzi - Brewers
15. Dallas Keuchel - Twins
16. Will Smith - Giants
17. Mike Moustakas - Pirates
18. Cole Hamels - Padres
19. Yasiel Puig - Diamondbacks
20. Brett Gardner - Yankees
21. Jose Abreu - Blue Jays
22. Dellin Betances - Mets
23. Avisail Garcia - Red Sox
24. Will Harris - Astros
25. Jonathan Schoop - Cleveland

Mueller's Twin Grannies · Nov 3, 2019

Chapman off the board, didn't opt out.

sean1562 · Nov 3, 2019

what is the logic with Avisail to us? Trade JBJ, move Mookie to CF and throw Garcia in RF? Or move Beni to CF and have Garcia play LF? Rendon to the Braves would make me upset and IDK how much the Nats fanbase would like the Lerners letting two franchise superstars go to division rivals.

VORP Speed · Nov 3, 2019

The Rays are going to splash some cash on a free agent middle of the order type bat this offseason. It will be the equivalent of the Charlie Morton signing last winter. If they can keep one of these guys to a short-term deal, they’ll go for an un-Rays-ian AAV. I could see Donaldson going there for 2/38 or something like that.

Yelling At Clouds · Nov 3, 2019

sean1562 said:
what is the logic with Avisail to us? Trade JBJ, move Mookie to CF and throw Garcia in RF? Or move Beni to CF and have Garcia play LF? Rendon to the Braves would make me upset and IDK how much the Nats fanbase would like the Lerners letting two franchise superstars go to division rivals.

Cheaper alternative to JD at DH would be my guess

Sandy Leon Trotsky · Nov 3, 2019

1. Gerrit Cole--- Yankees

3. Stephen Strasburg*---Padres
4. Zach Wheeler---Nationals

6. JD Martinez*--- White Sox
7. Madison Bumgarner---Rangers
8. Yasmani Grandal
9. Josh Donaldson
10. Hyun-Jin Ryu
11. Nick Castellanos---Cubs
12. Marcell Ozuna----Red Sox
13. Didi Gregorius
14. Jake Odorizzi---Astros
15. Dallas Keuchel--Angels
16. Will Smith--Gets Jiggy with it
17. Mike Moustakas
18. Cole Hamels---Red Sox
19. Yasiel Puig
20. Brett Gardner
21. Jose Abreu---Red Sox
22. Dellin Betances
23. Avisail Garcia
24. Will Harris
25. Jonathan Schoop

I'm thinking that JDM will opt out. They'll trade JBJ. Sign Ozuna for a 4 year deal to move to RF AAV $18M. Betts will move to CF. They'll package up Chris Sale with Chavis to the Rangers and eat salary. Replace him with Hamels on a 2 year deal- AAV $15M Sign Abreu on a 2 year deal- AAV $15M.
Yankees need Cole. Yankees get what they want.

jon abbey · Nov 3, 2019

I never do this kind of thing, but what the hell.

1. Gerrit Cole-Yankees (total wishful thinking, I have zero sense whether NY is actually willing to make the kind of financial commitment this will take, 8/264 and maybe even more)
2. Anthony Rendon-Rangers
3. Stephen Strasburg-Nationals
4. Zach Wheeler-Braves

6. JD Martinez-Red Sox (doesn't opt out)
7. Madison Bumgarner-Giants
8. Yasmani Grandal-Mets
9. Josh Donaldson-Nationals
10. Hyun-Jin Ryu-Dodgers
11. Nick Castellanos-Cubs
12. Marcell Ozuna-White Sox
13. Didi Gregorius-Reds
14. Jake Odorizzi-Twins
15. Dallas Keuchel-Braves
16. Will Smith-Mets
17. Mike Moustakas-Brewers
18. Cole Hamels-Rangers
19. Yasiel Puig-Rays
20. Brett Gardner-Yankees
21. Jose Abreu-White Sox
22. Dellin Betances-Angels
23. Avisail Garcia-Indians
24. Will Harris-Twins
25. Jonathan Schoop-Indians

IpswichSox · Nov 4, 2019

Jim Bowden of the Athletic predicts:

Garrit Cole will get 8/$288 million
Stephen Strausburg will get 7/$238 million

Maybe there is a market to trade Price if he's healthy.

BoSox Rule · Nov 4, 2019

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-top-50-free-agents/
FanGraphs Top 50 is out with Kiley’s dollar/years predictions, 2020 Steamer projections, and crowdsource predictions.

Tokyo Sox · Nov 8, 2019

Hiroshima Carp 2B Ryosuke Kikuchi is also being posted. He is an absolute stud in the field - I'm talking healthy Pedroia-level glove work, and will be the best defensive Japanese player to come over since Ichiro. Sadly, he doesn't really hit for average or power, and doesn't walk much. It'll be interesting to see what kind of interest he generates.

Mueller's Twin Grannies · Nov 8, 2019

Kind of sounds like a AAAA guy at best or a bench bat/defensive replacement. Doubt he'll get much.

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