MLB 2017 Offseason signings news/rumors

Lowrielicious

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Wingack

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That seems pretty light on dollars.
estimates earlier in the offseason for 3/40+.
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-top-50-free-agents/

I'm sure Boras is doing his best to keep his guys confidence up, but if I'm Moustakas and friends I'd be getting a little worried that the money is getting lower not higher the deeper this offseason goes.
If players have offers on the table, they should take them right now. Before there is nothing left.
 

moondog80

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moondog80

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Fair question, although I doubt very many people read the market to play out how it has done so far this offseason.

I don't think people figured on what is happening with Darvish, JDM, etc., but it was pretty clear that the market was filled with mediocre 1B options, and at least some of them would end up going really cheap. I hated the Moreland signing then and it looks even worse now.

Todd Frazier, ranked 9th on Keith Law's top 50 FA, got 2 years for 17 million.
Mitch Moreland, who is not in the top 50, got 2 years and 13 million.

Moreland should be kissing his agent's feet for getting a 2 year deal.
 

Clears Cleaver

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I don't think people figured on what is happening with Darvish, JDM, etc., but it was pretty clear that the market was filled with mediocre 1B options, and at least some of them would end up going really cheap. I hated the Moreland signing then and it looks even worse now.

Todd Frazier, ranked 9th on Keith Law's top 50 FA, got 2 years for 17 million.
Mitch Moreland, who is not in the top 50, got 2 years and 13 million.

Moreland should be kissing his agent's feet for getting a 2 year deal.
When DD knows what he wants, he’s aggressive!
#andoverpays
 

Wingack

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I don't think people figured on what is happening with Darvish, JDM, etc., but it was pretty clear that the market was filled with mediocre 1B options, and at least some of them would end up going really cheap. I hated the Moreland signing then and it looks even worse now.

Todd Frazier, ranked 9th on Keith Law's top 50 FA, got 2 years for 17 million.
Mitch Moreland, who is not in the top 50, got 2 years and 13 million.

Moreland should be kissing his agent's feet for getting a 2 year deal.
I mean what is Logan Morrison going to get? His OPS was 100 points higher than Moreland last year and he is two years younger. Is there going to be a guaranteed deal for him anywhere?
 

Mannygirl

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On the other hand, I could probably get a 2/12 deal from them
E5 Yaz, the fountain of one liner's.The Mets signed Jay Bruce for 3/39 and Frazier for 2/17. 56 million over 5 years total, for 2 players is bad?? Two players that were tossed around for the Sox to sign?? How is that bad??
But you have over 50k posts so how dare I question your post. Wish I had 50k posts.
 

Lowrielicious

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E5 Yaz, the fountain of one liner's.The Mets signed Jay Bruce for 3/39 and Frazier for 2/17. 56 million over 5 years total, for 2 players is bad?? Two players that were tossed around for the Sox to sign?? How is that bad??
But you have over 50k posts so how dare I question your post. Wish I had 50k posts.
Depends on the quality of players.

And the quality of posts too.
 

MikeM

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I mean what is Logan Morrison going to get? His OPS was 100 points higher than Moreland last year and he is two years younger. Is there going to be a guaranteed deal for him anywhere?
Yeah, it really is a crying shame that we don't have the roster spot open for him. At this point I'm guessing Morrison ends up the best low risk/high upside value signing of the winter on the offensive side, and at the most ideal position we had open going in.

I'm having serious doubts he even matches Alonso's contract, which is looking like a pretty sweet score right about now. Just too many FA and not enough open chairs. I'd be in full blown panic mode as a 1B.

I guess he's probably got another cheap 1 year deal waiting for him in TB though.
 

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joe dokes

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Teams could rightly be concerned about the absolute outlier-ness of Morrison's year.
I never saw those prediction for Frazier. If I had, I would have said "way too high" given the wrong way his production has been going.
 

tonyarmasjr

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I don't think people figured on what is happening with Darvish, JDM, etc., but it was pretty clear that the market was filled with mediocre 1B options, and at least some of them would end up going really cheap. I hated the Moreland signing then and it looks even worse now.

Todd Frazier, ranked 9th on Keith Law's top 50 FA, got 2 years for 17 million.
Mitch Moreland, who is not in the top 50, got 2 years and 13 million.

Moreland should be kissing his agent's feet for getting a 2 year deal.
Frazier also signed to play 3B, right? That's my understanding, and it certainly skews any comparison. I know he said he was willing to play 1B, but was he willing to take less $ to play 3B? I don't see how this makes the Moreland signing look any worse. He's only marginally better and got paid marginally more. Not a slam dunk in my book, even if he would've taken the same money to play first.

We've been over this ad nauseam, but the only FA 1B options who can be confidently expected to significantly outperform Mitch Moreland over the next two years are Hosmer and Santana. But not at their cost. The other guys maybe, or at best probably, offer incremental improvement. Untill last year, Mitch Moreland provided pretty much the same value as a hitter as Morrison or Alonso, while being a better fielder. They both had extreme career years, while he pretty much kept doing what he had been. Either one offers greater reward, but also greater risk - especially to a team that values defense. Alonso got more money, it looks like Morrison will probably get less. But neither deal is going to make a 2/$13 deal to Moreland look awful. He is what he is and is getting paid like it. You can argue that DD should have waited and signed the last guy standing to a well-below-market deal (that was my hope), since there seemed/seem to be more players than starting gigs. This still remains to be seen. But signing Frazier, Duda (my vote), Alonso, or Morrison does not make the Red Sox significantly better than with Moreland.

I do think if the Sox sign JDM, it would make more sense to go with one of the riskier options, with Hanley as a rotational piece hedging bets that 2017 was real for them. I also think it's worth mentioning (though nothing more than that) that re-signing Moreland could be used as a future data point for guys looking for 1 year make-good deals. A) He liked it so much he wanted to come back! B) We liked what he did, so we rewarded him.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
I don't see how this makes the Moreland signing look any worse.
He's a significantly better player than Moreland is--a better hitter, about as good a defender at a tougher position, and six months younger. The fWAR difference for the past three years sums it up nicely: Moreland has averaged 1.3 fWAR per 600 PA, Frazier 3.1.

The fact that Frazier signed for negligibly more than Moreland does indeed make the Moreland signing look pretty bad. Whether it makes it look "worse" depends on how you thought it looked in the first place.
 

tonyarmasjr

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He's a significantly better player than Moreland is--a better hitter, about as good a defender at a tougher position, and six months younger. The fWAR difference for the past three years sums it up nicely: Moreland has averaged 1.3 fWAR per 600 PA, Frazier 3.1.

The fact that Frazier signed for negligibly more than Moreland does indeed make the Moreland signing look pretty bad. Whether it makes it look "worse" depends on how you thought it looked in the first place.
He's a slightly a better hitter. He used to be better, but he's shown some decline. Last 3 years:
.252/.319/.449/.768, .327 wOBA, 100 wRC+
.233/.317/.466/.783, .334 wOBA, 110 wRC+

2017:
.246/.326/.443/.769, .326 wOBA, 98 wRC+
.213/.344/.428/.772, .335 wOBA, 108 wRC+

All the projections have them as basically the same hitters in 2018.
The fWAR difference is due largely to the positional difference. And that's why Frazier signed for a not-negligible 30% more. And, again, we don't know whether he would've signed the same deal to play 1B.
 

simplicio

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That Wilson vs Tebow subway series is gonna be huge(ly embarrassing for all involved).
 

VORP Speed

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In by far the biggest new of the offseason, the Rays today announced their selection of a stadium site in Ybor City (immediately adjacent to downtown Tampa, a few blocks from the Lightning's arena). Totally unclear how it will be financed and no concrete stadium designs or anything like that yet....all still pretty speculative. A gorgeous retractable roof park in Ybor, along with all Vinik's new development around the Lightning arena, would really make for quite a different gameday experience. Maybe they can work a cigar into the logo.

https://www.bizjournals.com/tampabay/news/2018/02/09/with-focus-on-tampa-site-rays-shift-their.html
 

LesterFan

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Sources: Chances of Darvish getting to $150M with #Cubs quite slim; would need to win multiple Cy Young awards. His guarantee is $126M over six years, making contract the longest and richest free-agent deal of off-season.

This seems like a really good deal for the Cubs
 

grimshaw

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I can see the reasoning though thought the pitching market would blow up. Price got 10 mill more per year and was Cy Young caliber.

Darvish has ace upside but hasn't touched Price's peak. He is also a year older than Price was when Price signed and has some substantial injury risk.
 
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Captaincoop

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Remember when we signed Rick Porcello for 20M/per and those who thought it was a bad idea were assured it would look like a huge bargain in the future?

Now Darvish is being paid the same money as Rick Porcello.
 

tonyarmasjr

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Remember when we signed Rick Porcello for 20M/per and those who thought it was a bad idea were assured it would look like a huge bargain in the future?

Now Darvish is being paid the same money as Rick Porcello.
Could you please state your point more clearly?
 

jon abbey

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Texas cries for taxpayer money to build a new (unneeded) stadium, yet won’t invest in a under market value frontline starter.
I have to quibble with 'under market value', this is the very definition of 'market value' since Darvish was available to anyone for the last three months.
 

grimshaw

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Remember when we signed Rick Porcello for 20M/per and those who thought it was a bad idea were assured it would look like a huge bargain in the future?

Now Darvish is being paid the same money as Rick Porcello.
Remember when Porcello won the Cy Young and averaged 200 innings the past three years?
 

scottyno

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Remember when we signed Rick Porcello for 20M/per and those who thought it was a bad idea were assured it would look like a huge bargain in the future?

Now Darvish is being paid the same money as Rick Porcello.
And then in the 2 years where he's been paid 20m he had an era+ of about 120 in 425 innings
 

jon abbey

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If Rick Porcello were a free agent today, what does he sign for?
He has 2/42 left on his deal, I'd think he might get something like 3/45 or 4/48 as a free agent now. He is a year younger than Cobb and Lynn, but would probably be roughly the same contract range, so we can see what they sign for.
 

scottyno

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If Rick Porcello were a free agent today, what does he sign for?
Less than 20 million. What do you think he'd have been signed for 2 years ago if teams knew he was going to put up 2 years of 425 innings with a 120ish era+? That value has already been banked, so it's not really relevant to what he'd sign for today.
 

jon abbey

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Darvish evidently has an opt-out early in this deal, no specifics yet.
 

chawson

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Is a pick attached?

If he is unrestricted in this market. Two years, 15 mil total.
No way. He’s got as much fWAR the last two years as Greinke, and is one of the five durable pitchers in MLB.

I’m not a big Porcello fan, but no way he gets less than the Chatwood contract.
 

tonyarmasjr

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If Rick Porcello were a free agent today, what does he sign for?
You're trying to paint the 4/$82 deal to a 27 yo as bad/stupid in the face of a 6/$126 deal to a 31 yo. Even with the benefit of hindsight that shows he won a CY, was worth $40M, and had a better year than any Darvish has ever had in year one? If he has two more years as bad as 2017, he's still possibly worth more over the course of his contract than Darvish over the first 4 years - and not signed through age 37.
 

Wingack

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No way. He’s got as much fWAR the last two years as Greinke, and is one of the five durable pitchers in MLB.

I’m not a big Porcello fan, but no way he gets less than the Chatwood contract.
What did Chatwood wind up getting? I honestly think they are pretty equivalent pitchers.
 

chawson

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What did Chatwood wind up getting? I honestly think they are pretty equivalent pitchers.
3/$39M. Chatwood’s a year younger and probably harder to evaluate given the Coors factor, but you’re right, not that dissimilar repertoires.

Porcello’s complete absence of injury history is probably quite valuable to some teams.
 

jon abbey

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Cubs should be pretty fun next year, but does this take them out of Bryce-a-palooza now?
No, and also keep in mind that some of these teams just want to get under the tax threshold once and then they will go over again if they think it is the right move.

Also the Cubs have Zobrist, Morrow, Cishek and Smyly expiring after the 2019 season, that is $36M freed up with what would be one year of overlap with Harper or any other FA deals next winter.