He got carted off vs KC. Could that still be arthritic or would he have likely also done something else? Both? I am out of my league on this stuff.
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Could be a combination of things. Certainly he may have also had a specific injury at the time as well, but the way his knee is being described now is not particularly encouraging.
If it was an ACL, that KC game was late enough that Strange may not be fully recovered 5 months later. But usually ACL injuries are noted as such. It is concerning.
I have to admit, Thornton is the guy I'm hoping will step up and win a job this camp. Even if things work out with their WRs, the one thing they lack is a burner and he would give them that. He has that one game in his rookie year when he scored 2 TDs.
I don't particularly expect him to win a job - much more likely is him getting cut in camp or going to IR. I don't have enough optimism about him to call him a dark horse. But I want to see him do it.
Rapaport saying he's going to miss the start of the season and could be out until mid season.
View: https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1792909447355896163
View: https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1792909447355896163
Not great....
If he did have surgery, I'm guessing a cartilage replacement type thing. Often in the setting of a meniscus tear. Lonzo Ball just had one in the NBA, pro athletes get them occasionally as a last resort when they have large cartilage defects. Those things have longer, more variable timelines.
None of the other traditional injuries with long timelines make much sense. Any non surgical ligament tear would be healed by now. If he tore his ACL or patellar/quad tendon for example, have to assume they would have just said that.
I'll echo other sentiments saying thats a huge blow to the oline. Him rounding back into form and improving his pass protection was something I and I'm sure others were hopeful for and almost counted on. The whole left side being a question mark does not bode well. I have some faith in Peters but holy crap will he need to earn his paycheck now. I hope that they figure things out quickly and not wait until right before the season to sign some cast offs or guys sitting at home or trade for depth pieces. That hasn't worked at all in previous years. The line needs time to gel.
IIRC Strange got hurt in the very first offseason practice after he was drafted. Just a terribly unfortunate turn of events for him.
Yeah. While he wasn't worth where he was drafted, there's a world where he's serviceable and that's important.
he was legitimately good once he got on the field as a rookie, and showed some signs last year in the brief window between injuries.
He had the makings of a good to very good interior O-lineman, knees just failed him. (kind of reminds me of Wynn, another guy who was good when healthy, then the injuries just ruined his career).
guys get injured. It’s not like he had a history of injury at college.
from an on field performance, when healthy, he looks like he belongs on an NFL roster. Worth a top 32 pick? Doesn’t look that way so far. But given how many guys drafted in that range wash out of football pretty quickly without injury issues, Strange probably has a chance to at least be a passable pick on performance alone.
Just using the 2022 draft, guys drafted in that similar range, Devonte Wyatt (27), Lewis Cine (32) and Dax Hill (31) have all been useless/injured.
I get that he was deemed a reach and the memes and McVay quote reinforce peoples hatred for the pick. But calling it an unforgivable blunder is extreme.
Generally speaking, Bill did well with his early round OL picks including guys who were deemed reaches. It’s unfortunate that Strange has had the leg injuries because we will probably never know if he would have turned into whatever BB saw in him.
I don’t know that his knees really failed him, he got rolled up on badly. Perhaps semantics but it’s not like a chronic knee problem or a career altering/ending issue (from what we know). I think there’s a chance he can still be a solid if unspectacular starting guard (maybe in the Joe Andruzzi tier of talent) which would certainly justify a late 1st round pick.
Positional value matters, getting meh on field starting production from an often injured guard is horrible return for a first round pick. Sidy Sow gave you something similar last year. You can grab that level of interior lineman pretty much anywhere.
I don't think anyone has argued otherwise. What some have said is if Strange was healthy his level of performance very well could have been worthy of a first round pick. Maybe not a great value pick but far from a disaster.
I am huge on positional value and am working on a project looking at where top half starters are drafted. That being said pick 29 in a weak draft class is basically 2nd round. I wouldn't say he was good at any point because his pass pro was always a little below average. The guy was a two-hand puncher who never developed true independent use of hands and (cover your ears Caedan Wallace fans) that is never going to work long term.
He profiled to be an above average starting OG or OC in an outside zone scheme. So the last two years he was a little out of place.
Had the Pats drafted using my 2022 big board and they wanted to go OL they would have taken Bernhard Raimann or Tyler Smith. Raimann graded out as PFF's 8th best OT last year at LT and Smith was the 11th highest graded guard at LG. I guess this blind squirrel would have found his nuts twice.
Quick edit: for whatever reason, and it might be because I study the run game the most and offensive linemen the most, I have had the most success projecting OL compared to other positions.
He profiled to be an above average starting OG or OC in an outside zone scheme. So the last two years he was a little out of place.
Had the Pats drafted using my 2022 big board and they wanted to go OL they would have taken Bernhard Raimann or Tyler Smith. Raimann graded out as PFF's 8th best OT last year at LT and Smith was the 11th highest graded guard at LG. I guess this blind squirrel would have found his nuts twice.
Quick edit: for whatever reason, and it might be because I study the run game the most and offensive linemen the most, I have had the most success projecting OL compared to other positions.
If he were healthy he'd be a good starting-caliber NFL player, albeit not at a sexy position, and at that point arguments about where he was picked fade to irrelevance, or trivia if you prefer.
His health hasn't worked out for him yet.
Tyler Smith went 5 picks earlier as a note (also they could have gotten both Strange and Raimann since he didn't go until 77.)
Edit- nm I assume you meant not trade back for more picks and take Smith. Fair argument, in retrospect I'm sure they wish they took him instead of Strange/Jones/Mapu/Zappe, though the did get early value out of the 3 2022 picks.
Positional value matters, but so does talent.
Strange if he didn't get hurt was probably a good pick, he was the 3rd guard taken and even with his injuries he was better than one of the ones before. He also probably provided more value (even injured) than half of the next 10 players taken. 2022 was a weird draft and hasn't had a lot of consistent production so far outside the top 25. Just a case of having a pick after the cliff in some ways.
@Cellar-Door yes, I would have been in favor of taking Smith that high, sure (instead of trading back). Also Raimann! He slid to 76 because of injury and because he was older and from a small school IIRC. Talent was there. Athleticism was there. The injury stuff complicates everything. But that being said Raimann was a top 50 guy on most boards (again IIRC) so I wasn't out on a limb there having him in the 30s positionally unadjusted.
2022 was a bad draft year. They also could have gone WR there instead of later and taken my next highest WR available... Pickens at 29 and Raimann at 52! I know people hate this game but that draft was such a disappointment and confused me as to what the hell they were thinking.
2022 was a bad draft year. They also could have gone WR there instead of later and taken my next highest WR available... Pickens at 29 and Raimann at 52! I know people hate this game but that draft was such a disappointment and confused me as to what the hell they were thinking.
You're equally flummoxed by some of their picks this year, right? Including Wallace? Can't say it makes me feel very optimistic about those working out!
It's too bad Strange's health is failing him because I think that will distort the public's view of the pick. It wasn't a good one, but the result is likely to be much worse because of something no one could have realistically foreseen that was not part of the evaluation.
God, top of that 2022 draft was just brutal. I mean, the Pats could have taken Strange AND Pickens. Thornton was a rough pick in the moment, especially when Pickens went two picks later to the Steelers and it felt so glaringly obvious which one would be a better WR.
All 4 uniforms are a massive improvement over what they're currently trotting out.
Yeah, and I was higher on Wallace than consensus.
I looked at this last night. I took the top 16 guys either rated that way by PFF or who made AP1 or the pro bowl as a starter or reserve but not alternate last year at Left Tackle. I did the same thing for Right Tackle. @Eck'sSneakyCheese and I were going over LT vs RT prospects and why I assume unless stated that unless you are a damn good prospect you probably are not a true LT prospect vs either a swing or a RT prospect. We disagree to some degree so I thought I would see how different they are in the draft.
Here is LT
Here is RT
I am going to round a little bit but 2/3rds of your top half of the league LTs are from round 1 while only 1/3 of your top half of the league RTs are. That's part of the reason why I am skeptical of any non round 1 projected guy as an LT prospect.
I have no issues buying Caedan Wallace as a starting OG or starting RT prospect. It's just the LT part of that. Happy to be wrong but he really faces an uphill battle to be a top half of the league starter there. If I lowered the bar to a top 22 guy I might get different results but here I want to focus on trying to get as many average to above average guys. If you have a below average starter odds are you are looking to move on anyway. Got to cut it off at some arbitrary point anyway.
I watched some Layden Robinson late last night. I think he shows a lot of promise as a run blocker but his pass pro is rough right now.
Wasn’t the story at the time that the Pats traded up to jump the Steelers who had their eyes set on Thornton? I wonder if the Pats got duped.
There was some smoke, but seems like we'll never know. The Steelers, Colts, and Chiefs were all about to take WRs, so one of them very well could be the "mystery team" that was about to take Thornton.
https://985thesportshub.com/2022/04/29/tyquan-thornton-patriots-draft-trade-up-necessary/
I’m not a fan of Thornton nor the pick but I don’t think there’s a lot of “glaringly obvious” things that happen on draft day, especially when it comes to “this guy will obviously be better than this other guy”
IIRC, last year in the preseason Strange was given a recommendation to get knee surgery. He opted to play through it instead until having to leave the game vs. KC.
We have a great thread in here dedicated to this topic (Arif Hasan Q&A). We can't operate in certainties but it was on the level of glaringly obvious that all 3 of those prospects had better odds at succeeding than Thornton did based on where they were on the CBB. In fact Thornton vs Pickens is a great microcosm of why the CBB works
.
I never really thought Thornton was a bad pick because he was a fairly unique type of talent that fit exactly what they thought they needed. Was it a reach... yes, but they really needed a guy who could take the top off and change coverages with his speed.
I also think..... if we took Pickens he would have busted. He doesn't separate, and his whole game is basically like Parker's. Mac showed zero interest in throwing contested balls deep down field outside the numbers. Pickens would have been getting no targets and throwing a fit every week.
I also think..... if we took Pickens he would have busted. He doesn't separate, and his whole game is basically like Parker's. Mac showed zero interest in throwing contested balls deep down field outside the numbers. Pickens would have been getting no targets and throwing a fit every week.
I think the issue with that is most outside receivers don't get a ton of separation. Mike Evans averaged 2.4 yards. Pickens 2.3. Pickens might have not performed well here but he was playing with shitty QBs in Pittsburgh too. The separation stuff is overblown imo. Mac made a bunch of go up and get it throws in college which is why people like Waldman thought he had some P Manning to his game. And he routinely went downfield to Parker and Bourne. Maybe not as much as others but he was willing to challenge those windows.
Think back to Mac's interceptions in 2022 and 2023. A bunch of them were outside the numbers deeper throws to Agholor and Parker. Xavian Howard twice, hah.
He connected on those throws too sometimes like with Agholor vs Pittsburgh in 22.
I can get liking Thornton because he had two good traits that you could develop: speed and some flashes of beating press. It's not that he was this god awful prospect. But he was not a guy you want to take top 75, top 100. He hasn't even been good rotationally. You never know if he can somehow find his form in camp or whatever but it's doubtful.
Think back to Mac's interceptions in 2022 and 2023. A bunch of them were outside the numbers deeper throws to Agholor and Parker. Xavian Howard twice, hah.
He connected on those throws too sometimes like with Agholor vs Pittsburgh in 22.
I can get liking Thornton because he had two good traits that you could develop: speed and some flashes of beating press. It's not that he was this god awful prospect. But he was not a guy you want to take top 75, top 100. He hasn't even been good rotationally. You never know if he can somehow find his form in camp or whatever but it's doubtful.
The injury history isn't the point. The fact that he's injured a lot is just the cherry on top of an absolutely outside-the-box-in-a-shitty-way draft pick by BB. I remember earlier on in his tenure as the Patriots "GM" folks pointing to, say, Brandon Tate as a guy who could've been a higher pick, but that BB/the Patriots mitigate the risk of taking guys like him by waiting 'til the 3RD ROUND at the earliest. Cole Strange was a laughable reach, not just the player but the position. If you take a guard in the first round, you either:
1) Have ZERO more important holes to fill and/or...
2) ...have TOM BRADY as your QB
It was an INSANE pick and everyone thought so in the very moment it was made. Had Cole Strange turned into Logan Mankins it still would've been a bad pick, given the makeup of the team at the time. The fact that he hasn't been - hasn't been close to that - just makes it more of a disaster. It's embarrassing and inexcusable. Disqualifyingly bad. That he's now injured (again) is enraging.
There is a difference between using pick 5 on a guard and pick 29. There aren't 32 first round caliber players in any given draft. 2022 was particularly weak at the top. There might have been 8-12 or so true first round picks. Even if you assume there were more you cap out at 20 typically. Pick 29 you are already into your 2nd round players. Not all first round picks are the same.
I agree he was a reach but given what the 49ers said he wasn't going to be there at pick 52 or whatever. If you wanted an IOL for an outside zone team he was going to be high on your board. They were trying to move to an outside zone system that year. I liked the player a lot but I did not like that they had to take him over other positions at 29.
I'll crank out positional work tonight on salaries. Guards have gone up in price. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw the top 16 OGs average salary per year get close to the top 16 average corner. It's definitely going up relative to other positions. I'll come back with a table top average 16 salaries for each position in an hour or so and we will see what we got.
Right now I see the positions like:
QB
Big gap
WR
small gap
OT, Edge
small gap IDL, CB
Small or medium gap:
OG
and then big gap to safeties, ILBs, RBs, TEs, OCs.
Let's see what over the cap has in store for us.
I agree he was a reach but given what the 49ers said he wasn't going to be there at pick 52 or whatever. If you wanted an IOL for an outside zone team he was going to be high on your board. They were trying to move to an outside zone system that year. I liked the player a lot but I did not like that they had to take him over other positions at 29.
I'll crank out positional work tonight on salaries. Guards have gone up in price. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw the top 16 OGs average salary per year get close to the top 16 average corner. It's definitely going up relative to other positions. I'll come back with a table top average 16 salaries for each position in an hour or so and we will see what we got.
Right now I see the positions like:
QB
Big gap
WR
small gap
OT, Edge
small gap IDL, CB
Small or medium gap:
OG
and then big gap to safeties, ILBs, RBs, TEs, OCs.
Let's see what over the cap has in store for us.
He also had injury concerns coming out of school. I was actually convinced Skye Moore was going to be amazing in KC and he'd be the guy we regretted passing on. Definitely has not been the case.
I just don't see it changing with Thornton. He runs horrible routes.
yeah, Thornton wasn't helped by injuries, a QB who didn't fit him, new complex offenses..... but the biggest thing is still on him, he can't make a quick break on a route and you can't win against NFL corners running in a straight line, especially if you can't beat press.
Interesting to see this; I did not realize it was so bad overall. 2022 is probably the Jets best Draft since 2000. All the players are still on the team and 4 of them are very good.
You all took the guy I was so sure the Pats would draft when he was there, Jermaine Johnson. I absolutely loved their draft. Edge, WR, island outside corner, and, RB near the end of the first round (not my favorite tbh but from a talent perspective have no issues with it - from a positional value perspective I don't like it).
Instead of OG1 and OG2 and OT1 and OT2 here is the OL by where they line up:
The top 16 RT contracts are the tiniest bit higher on average than LT. Who saw that coming? LG and RG are identical. So while LG is considered a slightly more important position the difference between the two are probably noise. Please note though that while the salaries might be the same the round you get LTs from vs RTs is different. LT is basically 2/3 1st rounders vs 1/3 for RTs.
And then here is the gap between The position 1s and position 2s:
The biggest % gaps are are the upper-middle class positions, OG and CB, and then the next sequential middle class position, S1 to S2. It follows that the next position down the line ILB is 4th but edge is right there with it. There are a lot of potential explanations for that. Maybe, even though they are members of weak link systems, there are more benefits from having elite OGs, CBs, and S's. Think how important protecting the QB interior from pressure is now given that interior pass rushers are getting more traction. Think how useful having an island corner is. An elite S could also be someone who is an ace FS or in slot coverage. Having a DMC let's you play single high. Or maybe it is a function of randomness. OGs have had 3 year cycles of big bumps in pay then leveling out. We just had a big bump this year. Perhaps the OTs, edges, WRs and IDLs are so important that even second high quality starter demands investment and you take that from the less important second starters (so robbing OG2 to pay Edge 2). Scarcity could come into play as well for premium positions increasing the value in anyone average to above average. It could be other reasons I am not thinking of which I hope you all can speculate on. It's a mix of a lot and it probably varies for each gap. And, again, randomness can come into play.
IDL contracts have risen in recent years and is now virtually identical to Edge1 pay. I think part of the reason OG pay has gone up is combatting that. OG pay has also gone up recently too. This could be partially related. I think there is enough common sense to indicate it. Having shorter and smaller QBs recently has also helped a few OGs get a nice pay bump. Yes, that is actually related.
When it comes to positional value there are other factors at play in the draft than just salary and surplus value there. For example if I can get OG1s much more often than OT1s on day 2 and 3 I would be much more inclined to take an OT there (and not just because of the extra $ surplus value).
My next step is to finish putting together the % top half starters by position for the draft and then make an overview bring these two workstreams together.
I am laying the groundwork in place so I can track this year to year now as well. I may or may not go back more years. It's a lot of work. If I had a data source where I could just vlookup everything I would do that but I haven't found that yet.
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The other issue is also potential value even if the pick doesn’t hit. A failed OT1 prospect might be an OT2 or an OG1 or OG2. A failed OG1 prospect might be an OG2 but not likely to be an OT. (Not going to get into the can they convert to OC or vice versa if OCs can kick out - that’s messy and unnecessary) final edit: and yeah some OTs aren’t kicking inside at all either so none of these are absolutes.
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This is a fascinating analysis. I still can not wrap my head around the notion that a football savant like Belichick did not take this into account in his latter year drafts. Also damning is how his picks fared when they deviated significantly from the consensus big board, which is a cautionary point that I believe Arif made in the other thread.
Between the 2018 and 2023 drafts, Patriots had a total of 56 picks. Of these 56 picks, 30 were taken more than a full round (32 picks) earlier than the consensus big board which I found at (https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/big-boards). With these 30 picks, Belichick and company had 3 successes, 2 neutrals and 25 failures (a woeful 11% hit rate) and those successes were Ja'Whaun Bentley, Anfernee Jennings and Bryce Baringer. Successes are defined purely based on contributions to the Patriots.
Of the other 26 picks that were taken within one round (32 picks) or later relative to consensus, Belichick and company had 10 successes, 3 neutrals and 13 failures (a hit rate of 43%) and those successes included guys like Damien Harris, Kyle Duggar, Josh Uche, Michael Onwenu, Christian Barmore, Rhamondre Stevenson, Marcus Jones, Christian Gonzalez and Demario Douglas.
I wonder if perhaps the Patriots' GM had just done a simple check not to draft guys he liked more than a round too early, then he might not have gotten the head coach fired.
Detailed results below. My conclusions on a drafted player being a success/neutral/failure might not be perfect, but they're directionally close. Bolded picks are those where the player was drafted more than a round earlier than consensus.
2018 Draft
Pick 23 OT Isaiah Wynn (consensus 25) NEUTRAL
Pick 31 RB Sony Michel (consensus 42) NEUTRAL
Pick 56 CB Duke Dawson (consensus 83) FAILURE
Pick 143 LB Ja'Whaun Bentley (consensus 374) SUCCESS
Pick 210 WR Braxton Berrios (consensus 296) FAILURE
Pick 243 CB Keion Crossin (consensus 387) FAILURE
2019 Draft
Pick 32 WR N'Keal Harry (consensus 32) FAILURE
Pick 45 CB JoeJuan Williams (consensus 71) FAILURE
Pick 77 Edge Chase Winovich (consensus 45) FAILURE
Pick 87 RB Damien Harris (consensus 69) SUCCESS
Pick 101 OT Yodny Cajuste (consensus 65) FAILURE
Pick 118 OG Hjalte Froholdt (consensus 178) FAILURE
Pick 133 QB Jarrett Stidham (consensus 172) FAILURE
Pick 159 DL Byron Cowart (consensus 250) FAILURE
Pick 163 P Jake Bailey (consensus 345) NEUTRAL
Pick 252 CB Kendarius Webster (consensus n/a) FAILURE
2020 Draft
Pick 37 S Kyle Duggar (consensus 55) SUCCESS
Pick 60 Edge Josh Uche (consensus 60) SUCCESS
Pick 87 LB Anfernee Jennings (consensus 133) SUCCESS
Pick 91 TE Devin Asiasi (consensus 134) FAILURE
Pick 101 TE Dalton Keene (consensus 205) FAILURE
Pick 158 K Justin Rohrwasser (consensus 453) FAILURE
Pick 182 OG Michael Onwenu (consensus 181) SUCCESS
Pick 195 OT Justin Herron (consensus 233) FAILURE
Pick 204 LB Cassh Maluia (consensus 449) FAILURE
Pick 230 C Dustin Woodard (consensus 424) FAILURE
2021 Draft
Pick 15 QB Mac Jones (consensus 13) FAILURE
Pick 38 DL Christian Barmore (consensus 26) SUCCESS
Pick 96 Edge Ronnie Perkins (consensus 53) FAILURE
Pick 120 RB Rhamondre Stevenson (consensus 149) SUCCESS
Pick 177 LB Camerone McGrone (consensus 104) FAILURE
Pick 188 S Joshua Bledsoe (consensus 196) FAILURE
Pick 197 OT Will Sherman (consensus 321) FAILURE
Pick 242 WR Tre Nixon (consensus 394) FAILURE
2022 Draft
Pick 29 C Cole Strange (consensus 89) FAILURE
Pick 50 WR Tyquan Thornton (consensus 130) FAILURE
Pick 85 CB Marcus Jones (consensus 83) SUCCESS
Pick 125 CB Jack Jones (consensus 241) FAILURE
Pick 127 RB Pierre Jones (consensus 123) FAILURE
Pick 137 QB Bailey Zappe (consensus 163) NEUTRAL
Pick 183 RB Kevin Harris (consensus 243) FAILURE
Pick 200 DL Sam Roberts (consensus 645) FAILURE
Pick 210 OG Chasen Hines (consensus 222) FAILURE
Pick 245 OT Andrew Steuber (consensus 209) FAILURE
2023 Draft
Pick 17 CB Christian Gonzalez (consensus 7) SUCCESS
Pick 46 Edge Keion White (consensus 44) SUCCESS
Pick 76 S Marte Mapu (consensus 157) FAILURE
Pick 107 C Jake Andrews (consensus 270) FAILURE? TBD?
Pick 112 K Chad Ryland (consensus 273) FAILURE
Pick 117 OG Sidy Sow (consensus 185) NEUTRAL
Pick 144 OG Atonio Mafi (consensus 229) FAILURE
Pick 187 WR Kayshon Boutte (consensus 116) FAILURE
Pick 192 P Bryce Baringer (consensus 251) SUCCESS
Pick 210 WR Demario Douglas (consensus 225) SUCCESS
Pick 214 CB Ameer Speed (consensus 455) FAILURE
Pick 245 CB Isaiah Bolden (consensus 454) FAILURE
EDITED: Moved Berrios to FAILURE / Uche to SUCCESS
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@ponch73 love what you did. I’d like to take what you did and tweak it a little bit. I think we have to determine success or failure by looking at rookie contract 4 year AV expected based on when they were drafted vs their actual rookie deal AV. I’d also want to tweak how we determine what is a reach. The way Arif does it is he takes the Jimmy Johnson draft chart and assigns each pick value to the corresponding player rank. A reach is taking someone 15% of their draft slot higher than where they should go. He has some early round 1 adjustments but they won’t really apply here. He also adjusts for QBs. Like the Duke Dawson pick. They had pick 56 which has a value of 340 points. Duke Dawson was the 83rd on the mock draft board which is worth 175 points. That’s getting, in theory, 51.5% of the value of your pick. 15% of 340 is 51 points so the lowest ranked prospect you could select without it being a reach is someone worth 290 points, pick 62. That seems like a pretty narrow band though. Maybe getting at least a projected 66.7% of value is good enough and that would let you stretch out to pick 73. That seems about right. There is usually enough flatness to give someone the benefit of the doubt.
I won’t be able to look at that for a bit. I also would want to use Arif’s old CBBs as well as ask him a clarifying question about his formula for what is a reach.
I won’t be able to look at that for a bit. I also would want to use Arif’s old CBBs as well as ask him a clarifying question about his formula for what is a reach.
I look forward to seeing the results of your well-informed tweaks at some point down the road.
After I looked at those Belichick drafts, I couldn't help seeing BB as a grizzled, veteran portfolio manager who doesn't realize that he can no longer beat the S&P 500 like he used to when he was younger and ran a smaller fund.
I think you’re a little too hard on some of these.
Sony Michel: Success. The guy contributed for as much as he’s maligned here.
Keon Crossen: had one decent year in Houston. Not awful for a 7th rounder. Neutral.
Hjalte Froholdt: starting center for the Cards. Success.
Jarret Stidham: competing for the starting job in Denver but likely still a backup. Neutral.
Uche: Neutral with Jennings a success? Success.
Jack Jones: starting corner for the Raiders. Success.
Pierre “the third Jones” Strong: backup RB for the Browns. Neutral.
Cowart, Herron, Perkins, McGrone, Bledsoe, Sherman, Harris and Robert’s all still in the league fighting for roster spots. Not sure if any of these are fails just yet.
The entire 2023 draft should be incomplete though. It’s really difficult to call any of those guys successes or failures after one year. If we’re projecting based off very limited play time I suppose but even then the only real fail would be Ryland. Hard to call Baringer a fail.
While non of that moves the needle a ton it changes the perspective slightly.
The top of that 2019 draft though… It’s glaring how much that set the team back. To then have 2022 put the nail in the coffin. There’s some hope out there that Strange or Thornton figures it out but right now it looks bad.
Sony Michel: Success. The guy contributed for as much as he’s maligned here.
Keon Crossen: had one decent year in Houston. Not awful for a 7th rounder. Neutral.
Hjalte Froholdt: starting center for the Cards. Success.
Jarret Stidham: competing for the starting job in Denver but likely still a backup. Neutral.
Uche: Neutral with Jennings a success? Success.
Jack Jones: starting corner for the Raiders. Success.
Pierre “the third Jones” Strong: backup RB for the Browns. Neutral.
Cowart, Herron, Perkins, McGrone, Bledsoe, Sherman, Harris and Robert’s all still in the league fighting for roster spots. Not sure if any of these are fails just yet.
The entire 2023 draft should be incomplete though. It’s really difficult to call any of those guys successes or failures after one year. If we’re projecting based off very limited play time I suppose but even then the only real fail would be Ryland. Hard to call Baringer a fail.
While non of that moves the needle a ton it changes the perspective slightly.
The top of that 2019 draft though… It’s glaring how much that set the team back. To then have 2022 put the nail in the coffin. There’s some hope out there that Strange or Thornton figures it out but right now it looks bad.
Sony Michel is more or less neutral or the tiniest of successes by weighted AV vs expected weighted AV. 31st overall pick has AV of 12.7 expected in the first 5 years (when this study was done in 2012 that’s the length he chose). Sony had 14.0.
The example is you take the AV per year and subtract 2 (and you can’t be negative. 0 is the lowest).
HF though (on mobile not spelling that) didn’t do anything for 3 years on 3 teams before in year 4 became a starting center. The Patriots get no value for him though. Jack Jones had a deceptively good year* and then gets into legal trouble, butts heads with the coaches, has a bad attitude and is thrown off the team. That doesn’t pass the sniff test to me as a success. Draft and development is a success but only if you develop them! Or I suppose if you traded them for some sort of fair value.
*Taylor Kyles and Lazar have discussed this at length. He had the equivalent of a hit streak at a casino and it didn’t carry over to last year for us. It also is not likely to hold. We will see of course. It’s fitting he is in Vegas because he is the definition of a gambler (over aggressive AF in general).
The example is you take the AV per year and subtract 2 (and you can’t be negative. 0 is the lowest).
HF though (on mobile not spelling that) didn’t do anything for 3 years on 3 teams before in year 4 became a starting center. The Patriots get no value for him though. Jack Jones had a deceptively good year* and then gets into legal trouble, butts heads with the coaches, has a bad attitude and is thrown off the team. That doesn’t pass the sniff test to me as a success. Draft and development is a success but only if you develop them! Or I suppose if you traded them for some sort of fair value.
*Taylor Kyles and Lazar have discussed this at length. He had the equivalent of a hit streak at a casino and it didn’t carry over to last year for us. It also is not likely to hold. We will see of course. It’s fitting he is in Vegas because he is the definition of a gambler (over aggressive AF in general).
Sorry SMU, I wasn’t using any kind of formula. My thoughts above are all eyeball test. I had started writing my response to ponch in bed from my phone so I didn’t see your breakdown of AV over 4 years minus 2. Do you have the expected outcomes by round somewhere for a reference? Interested to see what those look like. Using that is it fair to project the post 2020 drafts though? If the baseline is 4 years you’re going to end up with some noise.
I don’t know about saying that just because the Pats were unable to develop them they’re a fail. If the player ends up performing in the league then there was something there like ponch concluded with Berrios. I thought this was looking at how Bill did as far as recognizing talent and whether those players did anything in the league.
Edited: responding to ponch not BBJ
I don’t know about saying that just because the Pats were unable to develop them they’re a fail. If the player ends up performing in the league then there was something there like ponch concluded with Berrios. I thought this was looking at how Bill did as far as recognizing talent and whether those players did anything in the league.
Edited: responding to ponch not BBJ
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I just wanted to say what a fantastic post this is. We can disagree a bit on your ratings, but great analysis.
Michel was a hugely important part in a SB win. They may not win without him. Success.
@Eck'sSneakyCheese this is Chase Stuart's analysis even though it is 12 years old now! Wow. I can't believe it is freaking 12 years since it was released. It probably needs an update.
Exactly. 14 AV vs 12.7 AV, then add in the Super Bowl run? That's a successful pick by any team's standards.
Agree with the view that Sony was a success. Also wayyyyy too early to call Strange a failure. He gets healthy he’s likely the starting LG for years to come, which would make him a success. It’s a big if but still.
And how is Boutte a failure? He’s been in the league one season and was drafted very late in the draft while being much higher on the big board. He’s the definition of “take a chance on a talented guy late in the draft and hope you hit”. The vast vast majority of those guys don’t hit but it’s not a failure for taking that chance and it doesn’t work out.
Also… it’s been one season. We have NO idea what he’s going to be.
I love the effort on that post but yikes.
And how is Boutte a failure? He’s been in the league one season and was drafted very late in the draft while being much higher on the big board. He’s the definition of “take a chance on a talented guy late in the draft and hope you hit”. The vast vast majority of those guys don’t hit but it’s not a failure for taking that chance and it doesn’t work out.
Also… it’s been one season. We have NO idea what he’s going to be.
I love the effort on that post but yikes.
This is one of those things where I can see both sides but I think that if you put a replacement RB on the team or they drafted my RB binkie that year, Nick Chubb, they also win. I would point to so many other guys before I got to Sony in terms of team importance. Their OL that year... oh man. So freaking awesome. Remember when they had good OLs? Well PFF rated them 4th best run blocking unit in the entire season. If we just look at the post-season they had a team grade of 78.something for run blocking. Best in the league. That's a really good grade from PFF and keep in mind PFF doesn't adjust for level of competition. Their next highest competition was the Colts at like 70 something. Of the 12 playoff teams 8 had a grade below a 60.
I don't want to dive into a can of worms here other than to say both sides are valid but I think in an analytical exercise I wouldn't define success based on your logic. I would count Sony is a mild success just based on AV. Or at least he is neutral.
I hate that argument, respectfully. Sony was on the team, Sony had the huge SB run, Sony scored all those TDs. Throwing in a hypothetical "replacement level RB" because the OL was good doesn't really shed light on anything. Sony did those things. No one else. Maybe another RB can't figure out how best to use his OL to his advantage. No way of knowing. The only thing we do know is that Sony had that great SB run and he played an enormous part in winning a ring.
It's a fair argument overall but I get frustrated because Sony's contributions are so often dismissed as "well anyone could have done that." I do not agree with that.
It's a fair argument overall but I get frustrated because Sony's contributions are so often dismissed as "well anyone could have done that." I do not agree with that.
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