Minor leaguers in a trade?

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Apologies if this isn’t a good point of a thread start- or the correct spot for it.
But who are the prospects in the Sox system that you would part with, and I don’t mean that in an Empty-It-For-Soto type…. Just a more realistic deal?
I’m asking because I suggested Lugo but was shot down and it struck me as odd. Lugo is absolutely the type to deal - limited upside with a potential star at the same position right behind him. Moving him to 2nd is blocked by higher upside prospects too and his offense would never be strong enough to support him there.
So with Groome, he’d be my first to package for someone like Bell or at his level?

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Off the 40-man…

Groome
Downs
Wong / Hernandez
Seabold / Winckowski

seem eminently tradeable. Bello and Mata, seem like a no.

Mayer, Casas, Yorke, Rafaela seem likely to be off limits, no matter what. I’m sure a few others, too. It’s hard to say who should be moved - with the lack of players signed long term, nobody is blocked.

At this, may be time to take a realistic assessment of where the team is. 48-44 and in the mix with a lot of other teams. I think you make moves if you can acquire players with more than a half year left of control or if the cost is minimal (guys you’ve may lose off the 40-man anyways).

Are there some creative moves to be made that move players not in the teams long term plans? Would the Padres move Mike Clevinger for Eovaldi? A way to trade JD for an OF?

 

[Heating up in the bullpen]

As for Lugo, I wouldn’t say he’s off-limits for a trade, but your evaluation of him may be out of date. He’s developed more power this year (.221 ISO) while keeping his BA and OBP close to his previous career norms and with a .291 BABIP.
I saw him play once this year. He showed good gap power and great wheels. Reminded me a bit of Santiago Espinal, who I saw play for Greenville the year he got traded to the Jays. Sox got Steve Pearce for Espinal, who helped win the World Series. Could Josh Bell help the Sox win the championship this year? If so, that’s a good deal.
(Btw, Baseball Trade Values has Lugo and Bell both at 5.6, but I’m not sure if that’s been updated mid-season.)

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

As for Lugo, I wouldn’t say he’s off-limits for a trade, but your evaluation of him may be out of date. He’s developed more power this year (.221 ISO) while keeping his BA and OBP close to his previous career norms and with a .291 BABIP.
I saw him play once this year. He showed good gap power and great wheels. Reminded me a bit of Santiago Espinal, who I saw play for Greenville the year he got traded to the Jays. Sox got Steve Pearce for Espinal, who helped win the World Series. Could Josh Bell help the Sox win the championship this year? If so, that’s a good deal.
(Btw, Baseball Trade Values has Lugo and Bell both at 5.6, but I’m not sure if that’s been updated mid-season.)

I don’t think Lugo is bad at all- but with Mayer a much higher ceiling, I don’t see where he fits long term. He just seems like he SHOULD be one of the pieces being included in a deal.

 

[grimshaw]

I'd move only potential Rule 5 guys for players with expiring contracts - especially someone who has always wanted to try 1b but wasn't allowed to since middle school.

Guys I wouldn't move: Mata, Bello, Mayer, Casas, Bleis, Rafaela, Hickey (unless a catcher was coming back in separate deals).

Anyone else is game for me for cost controlled positions of need (OF, Catcher, pitching etc).

 

[amfox1]

I'd move only potential Rule 5 guys for players with expiring contracts - especially someone who has always wanted to try 1b but wasn't allowed to since middle school.

Guys I wouldn't move: Mata, Bello, Mayer, Casas, Bleis, Rafaela, Hickey (unless a catcher was coming back in separate deals).

Anyone else is game for me for cost controlled positions of need (OF, Catcher, pitching etc).

Groome is at the top of the list. Big name, ceiling is low, on the 40-man. The team should look to clear 40-man spots, if possible, especially if the team becomes a seller at the deadline and acquires prospects.

 

[billy ashley]

RE Lugo.

He's a very nice prospect but according to the SP podcast there is no standout skill. It's great that he has an ISO over .200 this year, but he probably rates a 50 on raw power. I think it's fair to say he has limited upside. It's just that there may be disagreement as to what that exactly means.

To me, Lugo looks like a high probability of a major leaguer. He has the floor of an up-and-down emergency option. Right now he profiles as a really solid bench infielder. His upside is a guy who maybe starts for a bad team.

He does enough well that I expect him to make the majors. He doesn't stand out anywhere, though.

I do wonder if the lack of any one specific standout tool harms Lugo's trade value in the eyes of other teams.

 

[amfox1]

I'd move only potential Rule 5 guys for players with expiring contracts - especially someone who has always wanted to try 1b but wasn't allowed to since middle school.

Guys I wouldn't move: Mata, Bello, Mayer, Casas, Bleis, Rafaela, Hickey (unless a catcher was coming back in separate deals).

Anyone else is game for me for cost controlled positions of need (OF, Catcher, pitching etc).

The guys you wouldn't move are the guys other teams want. No team wants to acquire three dimes for a quarter. I'm hoping the team either declares itself a buyer or a seller (the latter, based on the current prognosis).

You did not name Yorke, Walter, Winckowski or Murphy out of SP's top 10. Hickey was the only player you listed not in SP's top 8. Yorke would be a sell-low candidate, so I wouldn't expect him to go. 1-2 from the Walter, Winckowski, Seabold, Murphy, Crawford and Groome group will likely go, just to streamline things.

I would trade anyone in the right deal, of course, but I would view prospects with redundancy in the system as Groome (Walter, Murphy), Paulino (Mayer, Lugo), Jordan (big name, big risk/reward, Binelas, Kavadas) and Jimenez (prior top 10, someone may take a chance as the 3rd prospect in a deal, Rafaela, Bleis).

 

[grimshaw]

The guys you wouldn't move are the guys other teams want. No team wants to acquire three dimes for a quarter. I'm hoping the team either declares itself a buyer or a seller (the latter, based on the current prognosis).

Correct, but I'm also talking about this deadline because I have no idea what potential non-rental guys are even out there. I wouldn't go after Soto personally because I want them to have a sustainable farm system and eff Scott Boras.

This winter is a different story where I'd consider moving Mayer or a healthy Yorke where there is a much larger pool of players. The close to major league ready guys I wouldn't move because they are also holes we have. I also trust Bloom so I'd probably get over whomever he dealt away.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Have any of the recent draftees shifted the perspective on guys like Yorke... well... and Lugo even moreso? I know that not every player drafted as a SS ends up developed as a SS, but the Sox are making some noise about keeping those guys as SSs. I suspect if Yorke (who seemed borderline untouchable just a year ago) and Lugo get traded we'll see one of them pushed to 2B pretty quickly. Going down the list, only Bonaci and Downs are the other infielders ranking high. Seems to me that Ceddanne is more suited for OF long term and I don't know enough about Paulino to comment, but I think the question remains regarding him: Would all of those guys be expendable knowing the future of SS/2B projection with Mayer and the recent draftees? And yeah, of course, everyone is expendable for the right deal , yada yada

 

[Cesar Crespo]

The Untouchables (unless it's bringing back a cost controlled stud for multiple years)
Mayer
Casas
Bello

The Most Likely Nots. (Unless it's bringing back a cost controlled good player for multiple years)
Bleis
Yorke
Rafaela
Walter
Mata

The best players I'd move in a rental, though it would give me pause
Lugo
Paulino
Blaze Jordan
Hickey
Wikelman Gonzalez
Hunter Dobbins (not really, but I would hate to trade him right now.) last 4 games: 0.47 era, 19.1 ip, 14 hits, 4r/1er, 1bb/26k. Sits in the mid 90s, touches 98. Year away from TJS.
Thad Ward (not really, but I would...) Since returning from TJS: 4 games, 0.00 era, 11.0 ip, 3 hits, 0 r, 1bb/19k. 39 batters faced.

Prospects I'd be *actively* looking to trade in the right deals
Winckowski
Murphy
Groome
Seabold


Anyone else would be available too but I'm not sure how much value they'd have other than as throw ins. Lira, Kavadas, Bonaci, JohnFrank Salazar are binkies so I'd rather not seem them go but heh.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Have any of the recent draftees shifted the perspective on guys like Yorke... well... and Lugo even moreso? I know that not every player drafted as a SS ends up developed as a SS, but the Sox are making some noise about keeping those guys as SSs. I suspect if Yorke (who seemed borderline untouchable just a year ago) and Lugo get traded we'll see one of them pushed to 2B pretty quickly. Going down the list, only Bonaci and Downs are the other infielders ranking high. Seems to me that Ceddanne is more suited for OF long term and I don't know enough about Paulino to comment, but I think the question remains regarding him: Would all of those guys be expendable knowing the future of SS/2B projection with Mayer and the recent draftees? And yeah, of course, everyone is expendable for the right deal , yada yada

Paulino and Lugo aren't every day fielders at SS and will eventually get moved off the position. Teams try to stick with the most difficult position for as long as possible before making a change. Lugo should be safe at SS as long as he stays a level ahead of Mayer. That's a big if.

Lugo will probably start the year in AA, Mayer most likely A+ with a small chance of AA. That leaves A ball and the FCL open at the SS position. If both Romero and Coffey start in the same league, they'll probably split time between SS/DH and maybe 2b. If the two look like they will be climbing the ladder together, they may make a decision to move one off of SS.

Bonaci isn't going to block anyone and if Downs is in AAA for most of next year, he's no longer a prospect anyway. Re Rafaela: I'm not sure he ends up at 1 position even if he ends up a regular. There's so much value in having a plus defender at every position other than 1b and C. Basically a super sub who plays every day.

 

[amfox1]

Have any of the recent draftees shifted the perspective on guys like Yorke... well... and Lugo even moreso? I know that not every player drafted as a SS ends up developed as a SS, but the Sox are making some noise about keeping those guys as SSs. I suspect if Yorke (who seemed borderline untouchable just a year ago) and Lugo get traded we'll see one of them pushed to 2B pretty quickly. Going down the list, only Bonaci and Downs are the other infielders ranking high. Seems to me that Ceddanne is more suited for OF long term and I don't know enough about Paulino to comment, but I think the question remains regarding him: Would all of those guys be expendable knowing the future of SS/2B projection with Mayer and the recent draftees? And yeah, of course, everyone is expendable for the right deal , yada yada

No, because the draftees need to get into the organization and play games so that the org may assess their eventual position. Mayer is not moving from SS.

Yorke plays solely 2B now, although he may end up elsewhere on the field. Lugo plays primarily SS and a handful of games at 2B. He may very well shift to 2B at Double-A or higher levels but likely will be able to play both positions part-time. At Salem, Paulino is rotating SS/2B/3B with Mayer at SS and Bonaci at 2B and Jordan at 1B/3B. Paulino is more likely to move off SS to 2B or 3B as he gets older. Rafaela can play anywhere; he may profile best in CF but he has the potential to be a plus 3-4 position utility player.

Odds are that the draftees will play a level or two behind the current players and will eventually play themselves into non-overlapping positions defensively.