Minor league thread 2022

AlNipper49

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This seems like a lot more movement this early in the season than usual. I wonder if 1. I'm right 2. If it's because they're performing well and/or 3. it's an organizational strategy change.
 

Cesar Crespo

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This seems like a lot more movement this early in the season than usual. I wonder if 1. I'm right 2. If it's because they're performing well and/or 3. it's an organizational strategy change.
I haven't noticed more movement necessarily, just more movement from the top prospects. I think that's largely because of 2.

I don't think 3 is a thing. Bogaerts cracked the team at 20, Betts and Benny at 21.

I could also be wrong. Don't know where to check for total in season promotions.
 

LogansDad

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I also think that the next 2-3 years will be really weird in regards to prospect movement because of the completely lost 2020 season. A lot of last year was spent trying to figure out what the proper level was for a lot of players, and how much the year off stunted their development (or didn't stunt their development). Now that it's been a year+, they have a better idea of how fast they want to move players and who will ultimately stick. There's a lot of guys who might have been jettisoned otherwise who the team has kept on in case 2021 was just a year where they got messed up by the non-existent COVID season, now they will be ready to move on from them.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Mayer was 1/4 with HR #6. 1bb/2k.
Paulino was 0/1 with a BB. He subbed in late.
Yorke was 1/4 and a K
Lugo was 2/4 with a triple
Kavadas was 1/4 with HR #3 in Greenville.
Rafaela was 1/5 with a k
Mata went 3.1 ip, 2 hits, 1r/1er, 1bb/3k (AA)

Castellanos is currently 3/4.
Crawford went 6 ip, 6 hits, 2r/2er, 1bb/8k, 1 HRA
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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but I remember Speier talking last year about how big a deal it is for a prospect to go .300/.400/.500 across a full minor league season at any level. The players who’ve done it are really, really good. I wish I could find his list. It was pretty impressive.
Catching up on the thread; I think this is the article you are referencing? https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/09/23/sports/just-how-good-was-red-sox-prospect-nick-yorke-this-season-he-was-mookie-betts-mike-trout-territory/
 
Aug 20, 2007
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Keith Law was at the Portland game a few days ago and had this to say about Jay Groome and Ceddanne Rafaela.

Jay Groome
In the same game, Portland threw Jay Groome, Boston’s first-round pick in 2016, after an opener inning from lefty Rio Gomez. Groome was not sharp, with four walks in 3 1/3 innings and just 58 percent of his pitches going for strikes.

He had a wipeout curveball in high school, but it didn’t come all the way back after Tommy John surgery, and was more of a 55 (above-average) pitch on Sunday, 78-81 with two-plane break and good shape but not quite the tight rotation it had when he was an amateur. He’s improved his changeup, however, and it was consistently average and occasionally above-average when he got on top of the ball more to get better tumble — which also gives him better command of the pitch. His biggest problem is his fastball, which was 88-93 and clearly does not have great spin or other secondary characteristics. Hitters see the pitch too well, and he can’t use it to set up either of the off-speed pitches as a result. When he was an amateur, there was reason to think he’d pick up velocity as he filled out, but he’s going to turn 24 next month, and this might be all there is.

Ceddanne Rafaela
Ceddanne Rafaela was the No. 20 prospect in the Red Sox system coming into the year, but the 21-year-old has moved up quite a bit after hitting .330/.368/.594 with 14 steals for High-A Greenville to start the year. Boston promoted him to Double A three weeks ago, and he’s continued to show power but has struggled with the better quality of pitching at the higher level — and Harrison did not help matters, as he punched out Rafaela all three times he faced him, getting him with the classic fastball up and in and slider down and away in one of them, and backdooring a slider in another. Rafaela walked in his final plate appearance when Richmond reliever RJ Dabovich threw two pitches to the backstop. This wasn’t the ideal look for an evaluation, with Rafaela facing one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, but one facet of his game that stood out was the way he sets up his hands very high and loads them late, which might be one of the reasons he’s struggling more with different pitch types in Double A.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Blaze Jordan's June: .407/.476/.659 in 109 PA. 12 xbh, 11k/12bb. He has more XBH and more BB than Ks this month.

Since May 1st: .363/.417/.584, .390 BAbip. 26 xbh, 7 HR. 18bb/26k in 211 PA. 12.3% K rate, 8.5% BB%. For the season, he has a 15.4% K rate in 285 PA.

To date, he has 65bb in 399 career PA. 16.3% K% rate. It doesn't line up with the scouting reports on the guy at all. I'd almost suggest promoting him to Greenville now given he never strikes out and is hitting well over .300 the last 2 months. He also has more BB than K for the month of June. That's usually a sign of needing promotion.

He's having a great year (.310/.368/.496) but an abysmal April (.162/.220/.250 in 74 PA) is still killing his overall line.

Kavadas is up to .301/.460/.651 for the year in 274 PA. 56bb/74k, 38 xbh.

Binelas is 0/13 with 5bb/6k in his first 18 PA at AA.

Castellanos is slashing .429/.500/.714 in his first 16 PA at AAA.
 

Granite Sox

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Per Chris Hatfield and Ian Cundall (SoxProspects), the caution with Jordan is that he is not pulling fastballs in the low minors. Concern is whether he can adjust to higher velo in the upper minors. Not seen as offering much/any defensive value, so the bat needs to be his carrying tool.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Niko finishes off his Ajaxian June with a game-tying HR in the 7th. Future Schwarbombs 2.0.

Edit:
 
Last edited:

Jed Zeppelin

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Murphy’s Worcester debut more impressive than the line. Went 6 clean and gave up hit, error, hit in the 7th before exiting.
 

RoDaddy

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4 team sweep tonight for the good guys! Niko with another dinger, Blaze with another double (21 now!), Sale with a good rehab, and 2 more hits for Ceddanne. And don’t we need a cool nickname for Ceddanne by now?!
 

Jed Zeppelin

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The launch angle and distance on that thing are ridiculous. The wall to the right is 420 and that thing was way over the big wall in center. My god.
Especially for that pitch. Not overwhelming stuff but it was up and a little bit in so to have pulled in his hands and muscle it out like that is impressive.
 

Cesar Crespo

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4 team sweep tonight for the good guys! Niko with another dinger, Blaze with another double (21 now!), Sale with a good rehab, and 2 more hits for Ceddanne. And don’t we need a cool nickname for Ceddanne by now?!
With a name like Ceddanne Rafaela, you don't need a nickname. But he already has a nickname, it's Raffy. Of course, that will be problematic unless Devers is gone. But he goes by Carita anyway.
 

LogansDad

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After getting only one hit in his first 14 PA's, Miguel Bleis has put up a line of .350/.386/.525/.911 since June 13th. K rate is still a little high at 25%, but that's manageable for an 18 year old. He also has 5 SB's to one CS in that time frame.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Rafaela did this last night:


I’m excited to root for a Curaçaoan. One of my favorite places I’ve been to. And they like their baseball players. Didi is probably their biggest star but I do remember seeing Wladimir Balentien on a cereal box.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Andruw Jones wants to know what else he has to do.
Ah shit. I would have sworn he was from elsewhere. Well, then, Ceddanne has a higher bar to reach for than I thought. Kenley Jansen and Jonathan Schoop too.

But then this really makes me wonder why Balentien got the cereal box.
 

RG33

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Niko finishes off his Ajaxian June with a game-tying HR in the 7th. Future Schwarbombs 2.0.

Edit:
The Globe article on him was great. I’m on Team Niko for sure.

““A lot of it’s personal. I wasn’t very highly recruited out of high school even. I had, like, two or three offers. I basically walked on at Notre Dame. No one has ever looked at me and said, ‘That’s a professional baseball player.’ But from the time I was 5 years old, I knew that I was a professional baseball player. Showing up every day and knowing that they don’t look at you like you’re a professional baseball player, what can you do today to change their mind? That’s kind of the goal.”
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Nice night for the bats in Salem:
  • Paulino 2-5 with 2 doubles
  • Bonaci 4-6 with 2 doubles
  • Mayer 3-5 with 2 doubles and HR #7
Bello went 5.1 with 8k/3bb yielding only 2 hits and no runs, and a 6/1 go/fo ratio. Has not really skipped a beat since his promotion.
 

RoDaddy

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Looks like Sox Prospects just updated their rankings with Bello now up to 3 and Ceddanne moving all the way up to 8. As always, some head scratchers. I don’t understand Ronaldo Hernandez dropping to 36 – how is he dropping as a sometime cleanup hitter in AAA and coming off a very impressive June! He certainly has holes in his game but also that canon arm. And how is Blaze down to 14 from 10 after his insane June?! For all the Lugo-ites on the board, his is one of the biggest jumps forward (15 from 29). Other notable major changes include Niko (29 up from 46) and Groome (16 down from 6)
 

amfox1

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And how is Blaze down to 14 from 10 after his insane June?!
Blaze passed by Rafaela (19-->8), Winckowski (12-->9), Murphy (15-->10), Seabold (14-->11), Paulino (23-->12), W.Gonzalez (11-->13).
Blaze passed Groome (6-->16)

Jordan's problem is two-fold. He's maxed out physically at 19.5 YO, and his ultimate defensive position is going to impact his overall prospectness. One good month and one great month aren't going to change that. In fact, you probably won't get a sense of his ceiling until he hits advanced pitching at AA. Rafaela has a much higher ceiling and is two levels higher at almost 22 YO, and Paulino has average-or-better tools across the board as a 20 YO infielder at the same level.

I wouldn't worry about being passed in the rankings by the AAA pitchers. Their floors are so much higher than Jordan. Could make an argument to keep Jordan ahead of Gonzalez in the rankings.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Greenville was no hit in Game 1 of yesterday's DH.

In game 2, Yorke went 2/3 with a bb.
Rafaela went 1/4 with HR #6 in Portland, 15th overall
Groome 5.0 ip, 2 hits, 1r/1er, 4bb/7k,
Paulino was 2/5 with 2 doubles, a bb/k.
Bonaci was 0/3 with 2bb/1k
Mayer was 3/5 with a 2b and a bb/k.
Jordan was 0/2 with 3bb

Yorberto Mejicano went 2/5 with a double. He is now slashing .298/.338/.463 in 130 PA with 6bb/31, 12 xbh, 4 HR. Last year in a very SSS, he slashed .415/.460/.683 in 50 PA with 3 HR, 6bb/10k. He's a 21 year old C in Salem. Not that much out there about him.

Castellanos was 2/4 with a double. Since the beginning of May: 207 PA, .355/.377/.594, .407 BAbip, 28 xbh, 6bb/40k.
In AAA: .423/.483/.808 in 29 PA, 5xbh, 2bb/3k.

Downs was 2/5 with a double and a HR. Slashing .193/.317/.422 for the year. Too bad he can't hit for any type of contact.
 

BringBackMo

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Yorberto Mejicano went 2/5 with a double. He is now slashing .298/.338/.463 in 130 PA with 6bb/31, 12 xbh, 4 HR. Last year in a very SSS, he slashed .415/.460/.683 in 50 PA with 3 HR, 6bb/10k. He's a 21 year old C in Salem. Not that much out there about him.
Haven’t heard anything about him. Sounds like someone to keep an eye on.
 

Cesar Crespo

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The 8th round pick of 2021, Hunter Dobbins over his last 2 starts: 9.0 ip, 5 hits, 1r/1er, 1bb/16k, 1HRA. 50% K rate. His first 4 starts were pretty pedestrian though. He missed all of 2021, requiring TJ surgery. Prior to his injury, he was topping out at 98 mph. If he can bounce back to his prior velocity, he's definitely worth watching. FB/Curve/CU/Sinker.
 

jon abbey

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I just don’t see it with Casas. Someone smarter than me tell me what I’m missing? 16 1B should be absolutely mashing no?
Young for the level and would probably be heating up like many other prospects but has been out hurt since mid-May.
 

greek_gawd_of_walks

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I keep rewatching this trying to figure out when he loads up to make the jump but keep coming to the conclusion that he jumped 12 feet into the air on a whim.
It's always scary seeing a guy kind of plant his leg in the wall to climb it/get some leverage to propel himself upward, but he did it perfectly there. Also, love the way he tracked that ball. Wasn't a straight line. He was hunting it, kind of rounded the angle at the top of his "route" heading to the warning track to make sure he could get his steps in sync and his lower body spring loaded.

His glove is clearly MLB-caliber already. Exciting to see him perform. I know his bat hasn't been quite as lively since the promotion, but he's still hit well, all things considered.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Jeter Downs last 9 games: 39 PA/32 AB, .438/.539/1.031, 4bb/6k, 4 doubles, 5 HR, 6sb/0cs. Jeez.

Now for the year in AAA: .217/.339/.472 in 280 PA, 34bb/79k, 27xbh/16HR, 18sb/4cs.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Not really a prospect, but Tyler Uberstine was promoted to Greenville and in his first start yesterday : 5.1 ip, 2, hits, 1bb/10k.

Matthew Lugo has been struggling but was 1/5 with HR number 10 yesterday. At .273/.328/.500 for the year thru 309 PA. Considering his ISO was .094 last year, a .227 is a HUGE improvement. Lugo had 136 more AB last year than he currently has this year. He had 9 more total bases despite 36 more hits. He had 28 xbh, this year he already has 36.

Binelas was 1/4 with a HR, 2bb/2k yesterday. He's slashing .152/.322/.391 in 59 PA at AA. 12bb/19k, 3 HR.

Rafaela was 4/6. All singles. Slashing .297/.342/.595 in 121 PA at AA. 16 xbh, 7 HRs. 5sb/0cs, 5bb/23k.
Year: .318/.359/.594, on a .374 BAbip. 330 PA, 46 xbh, 16 HRs. 19 sb/2cs. 15bb/74k.

Betts breakout year (2013): .314/.417/.507, .332 BAbip. 551 PA, 55 xbh, 15 HRs, 38sb/3cs. 81bb/57k. Betts was a year younger than Rafaela, but this was at A/A+, while Rafaela is at A+/AA.

Obviously, the big difference between the 2 is plate discipline. The other less obvious difference is power. Rafaela is currently spotting a .276 ISO. Mookie Betts never had an ISO in the .200s. Rafaela also has benefited more from BAbip factor.

Bryan Mata went 4.0 ip, 1 hit, 1 r/0er, 5bb/7k. Sits at a 2.01 era, 22.1 ip, 11 hits, 8r/5er, 1 HRA, 15bb/32k. 34.0% K rate, 16.0% BB rate. SSS, but he's never had K% so high. He has had BB% that high.

Marcelo Mayer's slashing .291/.385/.519 thru 221 PA. 29 xbh, 7 HR. 29bb/58k. 12sb/0cs.
Off to a great July: 27 PA, .450/.593/.800, 7bb/2k.

Blaze Jordan: .305/.379/.484 thru 322 PA. 32 xbh, 8 HR, 32bb/50k.
Since May 1st: .350/.423/.558, 29 xbh, 7 HRs, 28bb/32k. He's going to have to hit to make the Majors but he's doing just that. He's still 19 years old.

Eddinson Paulino: .241/.336/.435 in 348 PA. 38 xbh, 17sb/3cs. 40bb/69k. He just turned 20 a few days ago.
Since May 1st: .256/.357/.454 on a .298 BAbip. 30 xbh, 5 HR. 16sb/3cs. 34bb/46k.

Brainer Bonaci: .244/.381/.310 thru 302 PA. 13 xbh, 0 HR. 14sb/4cs. 55bb/54k. He turned 20 yesterday.
Back to having more BB than K. It'll be interesting to see if the BBs hold up as he moves up the ladder.

Ryan Fitzgerald since June 1st: 139 PA, .182/.270/.298 on a .209 BAbip. 8 xbh, 3 HR, 12bb/28k.

Ryan Fitzgerald for the year: .246/.316/.454 in 330 PA, 25bb/79k, 31 xbh, 13 HR, 3sb/4cs.
Jeter Downs for the year: .217/.339/.472 in 280 PA. 34bb/79k, 27 xbh, 16 HR. 18sb/4c.

How did that happen?
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Both WooSox catchers have done enough at the plate to intrigue me as CV’s contract nears its end but I know they may be loathe to double down on inexperienced guys. Both in the mid-700s OPS.

Eovaldi was ok in rehab today, 3ip 4k/0bb 5H and 2er including a bomb to a .174 hitter but it’s more about health and building back up than results right now.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Both WooSox catchers have done enough at the plate to intrigue me as CV’s contract nears its end but I know they may be loathe to double down on inexperienced guys. Both in the mid-700s OPS.

Eovaldi was ok in rehab today, 3ip 4k/0bb 5H and 2er including a bomb to a .174 hitter but it’s more about health and building back up than results right now.
CV is having a good season and he’ll likely get a decent 3-4 year deal from someone, hopefully not Bloom. I think I’d look at dealing one of the mL C’s…. Move one up as a 2/5 rotation with a decent one year contract for a FA (who???). My preference is Hernandez but I haven’t followed much this season
 

Jed Zeppelin

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The 8th round pick of 2021, Hunter Dobbins over his last 2 starts: 9.0 ip, 5 hits, 1r/1er, 1bb/16k, 1HRA. 50% K rate. His first 4 starts were pretty pedestrian though. He missed all of 2021, requiring TJ surgery. Prior to his injury, he was topping out at 98 mph. If he can bounce back to his prior velocity, he's definitely worth watching. FB/Curve/CU/Sinker.
5ip 6k/0bb 3h 0r today.