Minor league thread 2022

Cesar Crespo

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Valdez was 2/4 with a double, a bb, k.
Casas was 1/4 with a BB, 2k.

Paulino was 2/5 with a HR, 3k.
Salazar was 2/3 with a BB.
 

DegenerateSoxFan

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I’m at the Woo Sox vs. Railriders right now with my youngest son, and he’s loving it. Sorry for the content free post, but I’d forgotten how much I love baseball. Can’t get a frigging Sox hat at the team shop - they’ve got diddly besides the New York/Scranton stuff
 

Jed Zeppelin

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It didn’t take this long last season but I feel like it took a bit for him to get his timing, but once he did it was a laser show. If he can finish this season strong then he really doesn’t lose much, if any, shine off his prospect status imo.
 

Cesar Crespo

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It didn’t take this long last season but I feel like it took a bit for him to get his timing, but once he did it was a laser show. If he can finish this season strong then he really doesn’t lose much, if any, shine off his prospect status imo.
Um, yeah, he is going to lose some shine. He started hitting on May 1st and had an OPS of 1.400+ in August last year. He is not going to crack the top 50 this year.

His OPS this month is .857. His OPS for all of last year was .928. He's going to drop.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Um, yeah, he is going to lose some shine. He started hitting on May 1st and had an OPS of 1.400+ in August last year. He is not going to crack the top 50 this year.

His OPS this month is .857. His OPS for all of last year was .928. He's going to drop.
Oh, maybe the rankings yes but I don't think I will feel very differently about him as a prospect if he mashes through the end of the year following an injury-aided down year. Still on track to be in AA in his age 21 season.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Um, yeah, he is going to lose some shine. He started hitting on May 1st and had an OPS of 1.400+ in August last year. He is not going to crack the top 50 this year.

His OPS this month is .857. His OPS for all of last year was .928. He's going to drop.
He was also injured this season, right? I know that doesn't matter in the rankings... but if he was just crappy for the first 3.5 months without an injury and only recently started turning it on then I'd be a little more concerned about his ability to adjust.
 

BillMuellerFanClub

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He was also injured this season, right?
A wrist injury, turf toe, and back issues ailed him earlier this season. I'm not as down on his season as many seem to be. I'm struggling to find the stat now, but his plate appearances against competition younger than himself was at 0 as recently as a month ago. If anyone knows a resource where that is actively tracked or can supply evidence to the contrary, please do.
 

Cesar Crespo

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He was also injured this season, right? I know that doesn't matter in the rankings... but if he was just crappy for the first 3.5 months without an injury and only recently started turning it on then I'd be a little more concerned about his ability to adjust.
Yeah. It doesn't really change his projection much. He still has an all star ceiling and the every day regular projection. He's just not going to rank 31 on BA again. I'd guess he drops into the 60-100 range. Going into the year, it wasn't unreasonable to expect Yorke to finish the year in Portland. Instead, he's probably going to finish the year in Greenville. That's not a huge deal except he had 96 PA in Greenville last year.

He's probably lost some trade value too as there is now a little more uncertainty going forward. If he starts next year mashing in AA, he'll recover his close to elite prospect status pretty quickly (30-40 range, maybe higher). If he struggles, he'll drop out of the top 100. If he's doing well, he'll probably stay in the 70-100 range. How he finishes this year will also play a pretty big role on his value.

That's the good thing with HS kids though. They can have an off year and still be on track and recover their status.
 

Cesar Crespo

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It's only 24 PA, but Johnfrank Salazar is slashing .333/.500/.389 since his promotion to Salem. He has 5bb/3k.

Across the FCL+A, 146 PA, .328/.445/.437, 22bb/12k. I don't know if this will hold up over a larger sample size, but this is elite level stuff. Players with elite skills often make the Majors in some capacity, Having more BB than K at an age appropriate level is always a really good sign. This is especially true with a15.1% BB%/8.2% K%.

Mookie Betts first year he slashed .267/.352/.307 in 292 PA with 32bb/30k. While he looked like an afterthought, he showed elite plate discipline. 11.0% BB%/10.3% K%. Salazar is further along than Mookie was, too. He made it to Salem in his age 18 season (though he is 19 now). He reached A ball at an age 5 months younger than Marcelo Mayer and Blaze Jordan. He's a lean 6'1 but should add strength and power with age.

He's obviously not Mookie Betts but if he manages to hold his own in Salem, he's going to shoot up the system rankings.
----
Brainer Bonaci is now at 76bb/76k over 417 PA. 18.2% K%/BB%. Good stuff, not elite. Last 19 games: 88 PA, .343/.466/.629, 17bb/14k. 11 xbh/3HR. Pretty much all his power has come the last 19 games.
Eddinson Paulino is 8/15 in his last 3 games with a HR/BB. He's had an OPS over .800 every month except April. Since May 1st: 376 PA, .266/.360/.455, .318 BAbip. 45bb/73k. 38xbh/8HR
May: .279/.367/.442
June: .239/.358/.457
July: .274/.333/.488
August: .279/.396/.419.

Both guys will need to be protected or exposed in the Rule 5 next year. Both are far enough away that they probably won't be drafted.

Matthew Lugo has recovered from a bad July. Slashing .267/.322/.474 with a .303 BAbip in 414 PA. 28bb/78k.

Niko Kavadas: 405 PA, .298/.464/.613, .383 BAbip, 84bb/109k, 47xbh/24 HR. August: .286/.468/.343, 10bb/14k, 46 PA
Emmanuel Valdez: 422 PA, .324/.406/.610, .361 BAbip, 50bb/85k. 53xbh/25HR. August: .297/.372/.649, 5bb/9k, 44 PA.

---
Game Still in Progress
Anthony: 3/3, 2b
Romero: 0/2, bb
Coffey: 0/1, 2bb. Now 0/7 with 5bb/2k.
Brannon: 3/3, 2 triples.
James: 0/1, bb, SF.

Perales: 3.0 ip, 0hits, 1r/0er, 1bb/4k. 3 ground outs, 1 fly out. Done for the day.
 
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AlNipper49

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CC, what do you think about the pitching depth at the lower levels? It seems pretty barren from my admittedly insular view.
 

Cesar Crespo

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CC, what do you think about the pitching depth at the lower levels? It seems pretty barren from my admittedly insular view.
How low?

Very High Ceilings
Luis Perales could be special or he could never make it out of A ball. Has a big time arm but he's so raw.
Nathaniel Cruz. Wide range of outcomes. Decent velocity already and could gain more as he ages.

Decent pitchers who are supposed to gain velocity with age but are only interesting if they do:
Luis De La Rosa: very advanced for his age with a 4 pitch repertoire. Already in Salem.
Jedixson Paez: good control, possible plus curve.
Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz: Already sits 92-93, topping out at 95. Has room for more growth.
Cesar Ruiz: Decent 3 pitch mix.

Decent stuff/velocity, but they need some work
Luis Guerrero: wild, 13bb/38k, 37.0% K%, 12.6% BB%.
Hunter Dobbins: It's a matter of how his stuff continues to recover.
Wikelman Gonzalez: very big arm but needs consistency.

Guys performing well and got a substantial signing bonus that have little info out there:
Alvaro Mejias: 1.23 era, 29.1 ip, 7bb/39k, 0.784 whip.

Guys performing well who didn't get a substantial bonus that have little info out there:
Inmer Lobo: 0.82 era, 22.0 ip, 2bb/28k, .773 WHIP.
 

Cesar Crespo

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93 from an 18 year old lefty. Doesn't really tell us much but he's an 18 year old kid so it's not hard to envision some growth. He doesn't need to throw as hard as his righty counterparts either.

Hasn't pitched since July 1st Mejias got $300k.
 

JM3

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93 from an 18 year old lefty. Doesn't really tell us much but he's an 18 year old kid so it's not hard to envision some growth. He doesn't need to throw as hard as his righty counterparts either.

Hasn't pitched since July 1st Mejias got $300k.
I think that video is from 2020 when he would have been 16. It's obviously not highly reliable regardless, but hard to find much online lol
 

Manzivino

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Acknowledging the small sample size and the fact that it’s only the FCL, pretty encouraged by Roman Anthony’s 3BB/2K in his first 22 PA. For a kid with swing and miss concerns, he’s getting the bat on the ball a lot in his first taste of the pros.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Jordan is 4/4 now.
Mayer is 1/3, bb


Salazar is 2/3.
Bonaci is 1/2 with HR #4 and a BB, K. Power surge continues.
 

Merkle's Boner

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How low?

Very High Ceilings
Luis Perales could be special or he could never make it out of A ball. Has a big time arm but he's so raw.
Nathaniel Cruz. Wide range of outcomes. Decent velocity already and could gain more as he ages.

Decent pitchers who are supposed to gain velocity with age but are only interesting if they do:
Luis De La Rosa: very advanced for his age with a 4 pitch repertoire. Already in Salem.
Jedixson Paez: good control, possible plus curve.
Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz: Already sits 92-93, topping out at 95. Has room for more growth.
Cesar Ruiz: Decent 3 pitch mix.

Decent stuff/velocity, but they need some work
Luis Guerrero: wild, 13bb/38k, 37.0% K%, 12.6% BB%.
Hunter Dobbins: It's a matter of how his stuff continues to recover.
Wikelman Gonzalez: very big arm but needs consistency.

Guys performing well and got a substantial signing bonus that have little info out there:
Alvaro Mejias: 1.23 era, 29.1 ip, 7bb/39k, 0.784 whip.

Guys performing well who didn't get a substantial bonus that have little info out there:
Inmer Lobo: 0.82 era, 22.0 ip, 2bb/28k, .773 WHIP.
Based on this list, I wonder if there’s an organizational focus to prioritize Latin pitchers. I could see it making some sense. Sign these kids when they are 16 and then you have control over them, rather than some American HS or College coach who is going to burn out him arm.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Based on this list, I wonder if there’s an organizational focus to prioritize Latin pitchers. I could see it making some sense. Sign these kids when they are 16 and then you have control over them, rather than some American HS or College coach who is going to burn out him arm.
Maybe but some of it is just because its the DSL/FCL and those leagues are dominated with Latin Americans. At least until they are flooded with amateur draft signings in August.
 

sean1562

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Um, yeah, he is going to lose some shine. He started hitting on May 1st and had an OPS of 1.400+ in August last year. He is not going to crack the top 50 this year.

His OPS this month is .857. His OPS for all of last year was .928. He's going to drop.

MLB.com updated their top 100 list and Yorke fell off it. Bello is at 37 but no Yorke to be found.
 

Cesar Crespo

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MLB.com updated their top 100 list and Yorke fell off it. Bello is at 37 but no Yorke to be found.
Yeah, I think people around here are kind of overlooking how bad Yorke's year has been. Anytime he's starts putting something together, he goes 1/5 with 3k. He's going to fall on the Sox lists too. MLB has Rafaela ahead of him. A bunch of publications will have Bleis ahead of him. Some may have both. I have Bleis 4th, Yorke 5th, Rafaela 6th. If Yorke fails to end the year on a positive note, I could see moving Rafaela up.

With that said, I've read a few times the midseason lists publications put out aren't taken as seriously as end of season/beginning of season lists. The end of year lists involve a lot more time and research.

Despite last nights 1/5, 3k performance,
last 9g: 42 PA, .316/.357/.605,.346 BAbip, 3bb/10k. 5xbh/3HR.
last 17g: 79 PA, .250/.304/.486, .286 BAbip, 6bb/20k, 8xbh/4HR.
First 47g: 220 PA .231/.305/.332, .298 BAbip, 20bb/51k, 10xbh/5HR

That's somewhat encouraging anyway. Almost just as many extra base hits and HRs in about a 1/3 of the PA. If his August is more like the last 9 games and less like the first 3, he should have a little rebound on lists. His overall ceiling hasn't lowered, but maybe the % of him getting there has. I was expecting him to finish the year in Portland and I'm sure I'm not alone.

--
Bonaci's now at .264/.401/.389 for the year with 77bb/78, 28xbh/4HR.
First 72: 329 PA, .242/.380/.314, .311 BAbip, 59bb/62k, 16xbh/0HR, 17sb/21sba. 35 TB via xbh (minus singles)
Last 20: .93 PA, 343/.473/.658, .389 BAbip. 18bb/16k. 12 xbh/4HR. 4sb/6sba. 35 TB via xbh (minus singles)

He would have to go 39/189 with nothing but singles to have an identical average/slugging to his first 264 AB..
First 818 PA: 5 HR
First 557 PA stateside: 3 HR
Last 93: 4 HR.

He turned 20 in July. Any bump in power turns him from UI to every day regular. Rafaela had a similar surge the last half of 2021. It was 209 PA though. I know I've been updating a lot on Brainer but there's a reason for that. He's even been batting 3rd lately. Now that Bello is a legit prospect, probably my number 1 binky. Him or Salazar. But if both keep up their performance of late, they'll be legit too.
--
Blaze Jordan by month
April: 74 PA, .162/.230/.250
May: 106 PA, .323/.359/.515
June: 110 PA, .404/.482/.660
July: 97 PA, .221/.309/.302
August: 54 PA, .348/.426/.609

FCL
Edgar Allan Castro (it's actually just Allan Castro): FCL.
Year: 121 PA, .279/.355/.481, .361 BAbip 11 xbh/3HR, 11bb/30k. 6sb/8sba.
First 15 games: 56 PA, .213/.304/.255, .333 BAbip, 1 xbh/0HR, 6bb/19k, 4sb/4sba
Last 18 games: 62 PA, .346/.403/.691, .381 BAbip, 10 xbh/3 HR, 4bb/11k, 2sb/4sba.

Turned 19 in May. $100k signing bonus in 2019. Plus power with projection. Advanced hitter for age., projects to be a cromulent corner OF.

Jhostynxon Garcia: The man whose name I'm definitely saying wrong in my head is slashing .181/.325/.372, .241 BAbip in 117 PA. 17bb/34k, 10 xbh/3HR. Corner OF with a small chance to stick at CF. Plus power.
Hit .282/.424/.482 last year in 170 PA. 15xbh/4HR. 33bb/32k (at the DSL level, walking more than striking out actually doesn't mean much).

Lyonell James: Slashing .370/.473/.467, .429 BAbip in 112 PA. 17bb/14k. 8xbh. I'm not sure why he hasn't been promoted yet. $440k signing bonus in 2019. Could stick at 3b.

Miguel Bleis: Slashing .301/.353/.543, .396 BAbip, 24xbh/5HR, 9bb/45k, 18sb/21sba. Above average defender in CF but there is some danger he outgrows the position. Of course, if that happens, his plus power profile could change to plus plus and he should still be fine at a corner OF spot. If he reaches his potential, he'll have an average or better hit tool, + to ++ power, above average speed, above average defense, average arm. Only worrisome thing at the moment is the 26.9% K%. He's only struck out 2 times in his last 31 PA though. He's only walked once. Prior to those 31 PA, his K% was 32.6%. Maybe he's made some adjustments.

Last 31 PA: .500/.548/.964, .520 BAbip, 1bb/2k, 9xbh/1 HR. Obviously he's having insane BAbip luck but that shouldn't impact K%. He has put the ball in play in 25/31 PA.

Luis Perales: 9g, 25.0 ip, 10 hits, 4r/3er, 9bb/34k. 0.760 WHIP. 36.2% K%, 9.6% BB%. Great stuff, great results.

--drafted players still in FCL
Roman Anthony: 6 games, 22 PA, .474/.546/.579, 3bb/2k, 2xbh.
Brooks Brannon: 2 games, 7 PA, .667/.714/1.333, 1bb/2k, 2xbh.
Cutter Coffey: 5 games, 18 PA, .000/.278/.000, 5bb/6k.
Mikey Romero: 5 games, 19 PA, .200/.368/.333, 4bb/1k, 2xbh.
Isaac Coffey: 1 game, 1 PA, .000/1.000/.000, 1bb/0k.
Dalton Rogers: 1.0 ip, 1hit, 1bb/1k. 0r. 0.00 era
Nathan Landry: 0.2 ip, 1 hit, 2bb/2k. 2r/2er. 27.00 era.
Caleb Bolden: 1.0 ip. 0.00 era.

Other Draftees in Salem.
Chase Meidroth: 35 PA, .308/.457/.423, 6bb/6k. 1 HR. A: 24 PA, .278/.417/.444, 4bb/4k, 1 HR
Matt Donlan: 12 PA, .200/.333/.200, 2bb/1k, 1 xbh. UDFA.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Pretty sure this is accurate too. Unless they just dump everyone into the FCL who is yet to play.
2022 draftees
Romero: FCL
C Coffey: FCL
Anthony: FCL
Rogers: FCL
Meidroth: FCL to Salem
Dean: FCL*
Hoppe: FCL*
Bolden: FCL
Brand: FCL*
Brannon: FCL
I. Coffey: FCL
Johnson: FCL*
Mullins: FCL*
Landry: FCL
Ramsey: FCL*
Jones: FCL*
Godman: FCL*
Butler: FCL*
-- UDFAs
Donlan: - Salem (UDFA)
Zayas: FCL*

* = yet to play
 

Diamond Don Aase

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Based on this list, I wonder if there’s an organizational focus to prioritize Latin pitchers. I could see it making some sense. Sign these kids when they are 16 and then you have control over them, rather than some American HS or College coach who is going to burn out him arm.
The ongoing 2022 IFA signing period is only Chaim Bloom’s second full signing period, so it is difficult to discern if there hav been any significant shifts in organizational philosophy. From the 2017 period through October, 2019, 47% of the IFA signed by the Red Sox were pitchers but Boston spent just 19% of its bonuses on those players. From December 2019 through the current period, 50% of the IFA signed by the Red Sox have been pitchers but Boston has spent only 17% of its bonuses on those players. The only difference of note between the two periods is that the highest bonuses paid to pitchers has declined from $750k for Chih-Jung Liu and $550k for Aldo Ramirez to $450k for Jedixson Paez and $300k for Alvaro Mejias.

Where there appears to be a shift in organizational philosophy is in the amateur draft. The percentage of pitchers among draft-eligible players signed by the Red Sox increased from 49% in 2017-2019 to 60% in 2020-2022. Over the same period, though, the percentage of its total bonuses that Boston spent on pitchers has decreased from 42% in 2017-2019 to 15% in 2020-2022.

The shift is even more pronounced when comparing the top quartile for each draft period. From 2017-2019, 79% of the total bonuses were paid to 25% of the players signed. Pitchers represented half of those select signings and 41% of the bonus sub-total. From 2020-2022, 89% of the total bonuses were paid to 25% of the players signed. But pitchers represented just 27% of those select signings and only 8% of the bonus sub-total.

To put some names and faces to those periods, the top quartile of 2017-2019 has produced Tanner Houck, Chris Murphy, and Thad Ward. The only pitchers included in the top quartile of 2020-2022 are Shane Drohan (Rd. 5 2020, currently with A+ Greenville), Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz (Rd 4. 2021, currently in the Florida Complex League), and 2022 draft picks Dalton Rogers (Rd. 3) and Noah Dean (Rd. 5). The combined bonuses of Drohan, Rodriguez-Cruz, Rogers, and Dean approximate the combined bonuses of catching hopefuls Nathan Hickey (Rd. 5 2021) and Brooks Brannon (Rd. 9 2022) or the single bonus of Cutter Coffey (Rd. 2 2022)— the fourth-highest bonus the Red Sox have paid to a California middle infielder over the past three drafts.

The Red Sox may not be prioritizing IFA pitchers relative to how the organization behaved from 2017-2019, but Boston certainly seems to be deprioritizing domestic amateur pitchers relative to the same period.
 

LoLsapien

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The ongoing 2022 IFA signing period is only Chaim Bloom’s second full signing period, so it is difficult to discern if there hav been any significant shifts in organizational philosophy. From the 2017 period through October, 2019, 47% of the IFA signed by the Red Sox were pitchers but Boston spent just 19% of its bonuses on those players. From December 2019 through the current period, 50% of the IFA signed by the Red Sox have been pitchers but Boston has spent only 17% of its bonuses on those players. The only difference of note between the two periods is that the highest bonuses paid to pitchers has declined from $750k for Chih-Jung Liu and $550k for Aldo Ramirez to $450k for Jedixson Paez and $300k for Alvaro Mejias.

Where there appears to be a shift in organizational philosophy is in the amateur draft. The percentage of pitchers among draft-eligible players signed by the Red Sox increased from 49% in 2017-2019 to 60% in 2020-2022. Over the same period, though, the percentage of its total bonuses that Boston spent on pitchers has decreased from 42% in 2017-2019 to 15% in 2020-2022.

The shift is even more pronounced when comparing the top quartile for each draft period. From 2017-2019, 79% of the total bonuses were paid to 25% of the players signed. Pitchers represented half of those select signings and 41% of the bonus sub-total. From 2020-2022, 89% of the total bonuses were paid to 25% of the players signed. But pitchers represented just 27% of those select signings and only 8% of the bonus sub-total.

To put some names and faces to those periods, the top quartile of 2017-2019 has produced Tanner Houck, Chris Murphy, and Thad Ward. The only pitchers included in the top quartile of 2020-2022 are Shane Drohan (Rd. 5 2020, currently with A+ Greenville), Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz (Rd 4. 2021, currently in the Florida Complex League), and 2022 draft picks Dalton Rogers (Rd. 3) and Noah Dean (Rd. 5). The combined bonuses of Drohan, Rodriguez-Cruz, Rogers, and Dean approximate the combined bonuses of catching hopefuls Nathan Hickey (Rd. 5 2021) and Brooks Brannon (Rd. 9 2022) or the single bonus of Cutter Coffey (Rd. 2 2022)— the fourth-highest bonus the Red Sox have paid to a California middle infielder over the past three drafts.

The Red Sox may not be prioritizing IFA pitchers relative to how the organization behaved from 2017-2019, but Boston certainly seems to be deprioritizing domestic amateur pitchers relative to the same period.
This is a fantastic post. Data driven and insightful. Thank you for digging into this!
 

Cesar Crespo

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The ongoing 2022 IFA signing period is only Chaim Bloom’s second full signing period, so it is difficult to discern if there hav been any significant shifts in organizational philosophy. From the 2017 period through October, 2019, 47% of the IFA signed by the Red Sox were pitchers but Boston spent just 19% of its bonuses on those players. From December 2019 through the current period, 50% of the IFA signed by the Red Sox have been pitchers but Boston has spent only 17% of its bonuses on those players. The only difference of note between the two periods is that the highest bonuses paid to pitchers has declined from $750k for Chih-Jung Liu and $550k for Aldo Ramirez to $450k for Jedixson Paez and $300k for Alvaro Mejias.

Where there appears to be a shift in organizational philosophy is in the amateur draft. The percentage of pitchers among draft-eligible players signed by the Red Sox increased from 49% in 2017-2019 to 60% in 2020-2022. Over the same period, though, the percentage of its total bonuses that Boston spent on pitchers has decreased from 42% in 2017-2019 to 15% in 2020-2022.

The shift is even more pronounced when comparing the top quartile for each draft period. From 2017-2019, 79% of the total bonuses were paid to 25% of the players signed. Pitchers represented half of those select signings and 41% of the bonus sub-total. From 2020-2022, 89% of the total bonuses were paid to 25% of the players signed. But pitchers represented just 27% of those select signings and only 8% of the bonus sub-total.

To put some names and faces to those periods, the top quartile of 2017-2019 has produced Tanner Houck, Chris Murphy, and Thad Ward. The only pitchers included in the top quartile of 2020-2022 are Shane Drohan (Rd. 5 2020, currently with A+ Greenville), Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz (Rd 4. 2021, currently in the Florida Complex League), and 2022 draft picks Dalton Rogers (Rd. 3) and Noah Dean (Rd. 5). The combined bonuses of Drohan, Rodriguez-Cruz, Rogers, and Dean approximate the combined bonuses of catching hopefuls Nathan Hickey (Rd. 5 2021) and Brooks Brannon (Rd. 9 2022) or the single bonus of Cutter Coffey (Rd. 2 2022)— the fourth-highest bonus the Red Sox have paid to a California middle infielder over the past three drafts.

The Red Sox may not be prioritizing IFA pitchers relative to how the organization behaved from 2017-2019, but Boston certainly seems to be deprioritizing domestic amateur pitchers relative to the same period.
They've done really well with the cheaper IFA signings. Bello (28k), Perales (10k), Mata (28k)
They got Brandon Walter for $35k too.

Seems like a better strategy than spending millions on Groome and Espinosa just to watch them get injured. Sitting in the high 90s at 17/18 is often sitting in the low to mid 90s at age 21 due to injury. While Bello went from throwing 90-92 at at 18 to 95-98 at 23. Mata was throwing 90-92 at age 18, and now in the mid 90s topping out at 100 at age 23. Perales is 19 and is sitting mid 90s and topping out in the high 90s. He's seen some velocity growth as well. All 3 were signed at 16 years of age for cheap. I'd guess some of their strategy is signing a bunch of 16 year old international pitchers on the cheap with the hopes that some add velocity.
 

Diamond Don Aase

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This is a fantastic post. Data driven and insightful. Thank you for digging into this!
Thank you. One caveat that bears mention is that the magnitude of this shift is impacted by the inclusion of Marcelo Mayer in the 2020-2022 period. Mayer received one-quarter of the total bonuses paid over those three years.

Even with that caveat, though, the shift is not driven by a single year. While pitchers were at least 50% of the draft-eligible players signed by the Red Sox in each of the past three years, they received less than 19% of the bonuses paid in every one of those drafts.

Drohan’s $600k 2020 bonus remains the only bonus paid to a pitcher among the Red Sox’ 10 highest bonuses of the past three years. In the prior three years, pitchers received four of Boston’s 10 highest bonuses and 10 of its 20 highest bonuses.
 

LoLsapien

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Thank you. One caveat that bears mention is that the magnitude of this shift is impacted by the inclusion of Marcelo Mayer in the 2020-2022 period. Mayer received one-quarter of the total bonuses paid over those three years.

Even with that caveat, though, the shift is not driven by a single year. While pitchers were at least 50% of the draft-eligible players signed by the Red Sox in each of the past three years, they received less than 19% of the bonuses paid in every one of those drafts.

Drohan’s $600k 2020 bonus remains the only bonus paid to a pitcher among the Red Sox’ 10 highest bonuses of the past three years. In the prior three years, pitchers received four of Boston’s 10 highest bonuses and 10 of its 20 highest bonuses.
Not sure this would add much to your analysis, but since it sounds like you have the data onhand, could you calc the median and mean bonus for pitchers/position players for the two periods?
 

Diamond Don Aase

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 16, 2001
928
Merrimack Valley
Not sure this would add much to your analysis, but since it sounds like you have the data onhand, could you calc the median and mean bonus for pitchers/position players for the two periods?
IFA 17-Oct’19 to Dec’19-22

Pitchers Median $10.0k to $15.0k
Position Median $25.0k to $85.0k

Pitchers Mean $54.5k to $59.4k
Position Mean $202.5k to $298.7k

Domestic Draft 17-19 to 20-22

Pitchers Median $75.0k to $47.5k
Position Median $125.0k to $197.5k

Pitchers Mean $188.0k to $113.0k
Position Mean $253.9k to $944.4k
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
Looking into it some, 12/21 Boston's picks were pitchers.
But 4 of those were picked with the sole purpose of under slotting big and were not real picks.
Only 2 were given more than 125k but they also took less. Rogers $170k less, Dean $22.5 less.
They signed 6 other guys between the 11-20th round. All of them got less than the $125k that counts against the gap.
Of the 12, 0 were from HS. 5 juniors. 7 seniors.
Out of the 6 contracts higher than $125k, 2 were pitchers. They received a little more combined than the 4th highest. (Brannon, 712.5k).

In 2021, 8 of 20 picks were on pitchers.
Only 1 was a big under slot.
1 HS, 2 JR, 1 JC, 4 seniors.
Of the 9 contracts higher than the $125k, 3 were pitchers. They received less combined than the 2nd highest bonus (Nathan Hickey, 1 million).

2020, 1 of 4 picks were pitchers
1 was a 280k under slot but still got $200k.
1 JR


2019, 21 of 40 picks were pitchers
One was a 306k under slot and got 100k but still had promise (Noah Song)
4 were over slot a bit, Brock Bell by about 300k, Celluci 220k, Loubier 375k, Blaylock 125k. They were 2 HS arms and 2 juco arms.
7 HS arms. 6 JR, 3 Senior, 3 Juco, 2 Sophomores. 4 of the HS arms didn't sign, 1 juco arm, 1 sophomore arm, 1 senior arm.
Of the 10 highest bonuses, 7 went to pitchers... but the top 2 were hitters and received more than the 7 pitchers combined.

2018
Of the top 10 contracts, 2 went to pitchers. They combined to make 80% of the 2nd highest bonus (Nick Decker, 1.25mil)
They signed 0 HS arms.

It's really hard to see what their strategy actually is regarding pitching. Signing young DSL guys seems like part of it. But in the last 2 (3, but 2020) drafts, the Red Sox have only drafted 1 HS arm. That was Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz. In 2019, they drafted 7 but only signed 2. They haven't really invested heavily in pitching in the international draft either.

2022: Top 7 signings all hitters
2021: 4 of top 10 are pitchers, but top 3 are hitters.
2019/20: All but 1 of top 7 signings are hitters, though 2nd is a pitcher. 3 of top 10.
2018: Top 6 signings all hitters. 8 of first 9.

Since 2018, the team has spend only 1 "2nd" round pick (or equivalent of) on a pitcher, that being Chih-Jung Liu. The have spent the equivalent of a 3rd and 4th rounder on 5 pitchers. They have signed 2 HS pitchers.

The biggest bonus they have given to a pitcher since 2017 is $750k. Houck got 2.6 million in 2017. That's absurd. 2 HS pitchers covering 4 (5) drafts.