- Dec 22, 2002
Just noticed Daniel McElveny was promoted to Salem yesterday.
Thanks for your work in this thread. It’s terrific.Corey Rosier: Had a solid debut last year in minimal time. Projects to be a decent CF but has been blocked by another player at the same position.
In his A ball debut, he slashed .390/.461/.585 in 141 PA with 14xbh/3HRs, 13/16 in sb, 18bb/20k. 12.8% BB%/14.2% K%.
This year has been more of the same, minus the power.
2022: .263/.381/.396 in 373 PA. 21 xbh/6HRs, 33/37 in sb, 54bb/68k. 14.5% BB%, 18.2% K %.
He's interesting. He's a bit old for the league he's in but could earn a promotion to AA. He puts the bat on the ball and given his speed, that's a good thing. He can also draw a walk. We'll know more as he moves up a level. I think he's my 2nd favorite prospect acquired.
Max Ferguson: Another speedy player with a defensive profile. Ferguson has had an odd career and I'm not sure what to make of him. He walks, a lot. He strikes out. He's like Two Outcomes? This year, he's been slightly better making contact and is hitting for a little more power... which would be hard not to do. He's probably my least favorite of the guys acquired.
2021: .212/.382/.297 in 152 PA, 15/16 sb, 8 xbh, 31bb/42k. 20.4% BB% 27.6% K%.
2022: .221/.365/.358 in 432 PA. 55/60 sb, 27xbh/6 HR, 75bb/101k. 17.4% BB%, 23.3% K%.
He's going to have to hit for a better average to take advantage of his base running ability. I also doubt he's going to maintain those walk rates. In some ways, he reminds me of Brainer Bonaci.
I can see what Bloom was doing selecting these 4 players. Chances are none will amount to much but you can see where they would add value if they work out. They all walk at a decent clip, too.
What have you seen about Valdez’s defense? I know the knock is he has no home. But is he Arroyo level?Analyzing the New Guys: This is just scouting by the numbers, adjusting for age. Not using scouting reports except for defense. I have not seen any of these players, obviously. Nor have I had time to talk with people who might have. With that said, I've been checking box scores for 25 years now and there are some things numbers actually do tell you. I'm also going to be on the optimistic side.
For reference, this is what I consider age appropriate for prospects.
Enmanuel Valdez: His first 4 years (ages 17-20) he struggled to hit for average or power but showed a decent eye.
Year 1 (18yo, RK) 12.5% BB%/19.6% K% .178 ISO
Year 2 (19yo, A-) 8.3% BB%/20.0% K% .176 ISO
Year 3 (20yo, A/A+) 7.8% BB%/21.2% K% .138 ISO
2020 was wiped out due to Covid. That would have been his age 21 season. I sometimes wonder if certain prospects get undervalued because they are an age older at a certain level due to the missed year, and didn't have much of a track record before. Had Valdez put up his age 22 season at age 21, how different would things be?
Anyway, that sets up his age 22 season. He had a break out year in 2021 and added some power to his game while still maintaining his plate discipline. He's carried that over into his age 23 season and has had a monster year, but it's really not that far off from his year 4. Just a better BAbip.
Year 4 (22 yo A+/AA): 9.2% BB%/21.5% K%, .279 ISO.
Year 5 (23 yo AA/AAA) 11.9% BB%/20.1% K%, .279 ISO
I find it odd that he's played mostly 2b/3b thru his minor league career even though he profiles as a guy with no position. Though this year he has played quite a few games in LF, but still more at 2b and 3rd.
He's pretty close to being ready. It is not uncommon at all for a player to add power in his age 21 season and he's always had a decent eye. He is not a 3 outcomes player. He's a guy who has maintained a 10.0% BB%/20.0% K% (185bb/371k, I love math) through out his minor league career of 1857 PA.
Out of all the 4 prospects the Sox acquired, he's by far the one I'm most excited about. There's a chance they have a real player here if he can settle down at a position and/or he hits enough to DH. His last 2 years are incredibly promising and would be looked at differently if they were ages 21 and 22. He is going to make the Majors. How long he sticks is another matter. He is 62 days YOUNGER than Niko and 2 levels further along.
Wilymer Abreu: Also struggled for his first 4 years. Unlike Valdez, he is a plus defender in the OF and has plus speed. He started to hit for power in 2021 but sold out to the K. This year, his BB% has spiked dramatically, which is interesting. He's also been relatively old for each step in the minors, though he's been mostly age appropriate this year. This is especially true if he earns a promotion to AAA.
Year 1: 11.1% BB%, 20.0% K%, .089 ISO
Year 2: 8.8% BB%, 20.9% K%, .110 ISO
Year 3: 11.5% BB%, 29.9% K%, .227 ISO
Year 4: 19.0% BB%, 26.3% K%, .210 ISO.
He's also become a better base stealer. He is 23 for 24 this year. Prior to this year, he was 31 for 58. I guess it's possible it's luck but that's pretty drastic. I worry about how he will hold up at the next level or the Majors because he has become a three outcomes player. I also worry that the huge spike in walks this year will be Ks at the MLB level. I had this same concern about Bobby Dalbec. The fear is they are just looking at pitches and when the quality of pitcher goes up, they are looking at strikes instead of balls. If he can cut down on the Ks while still hitting for power, he's interesting. I'm not sure he can. He's probably more likely than not to get a cup of Coffee in the Majors, though not as much a certainty as Valdez. Making the Majors could be 1 PA.
Other 2 will be in a separate post coming up. Don't want a super long post and it's also a separate trade.
I mean, this is what Bloom said.What have you seen about Valdez’s defense? I know the knock is he has no home. But is he Arroyo level?
The fact Bloom kind of didn't talk about Valdez's defense says quite a lot. "He plays a lot of positions." I mean, ok. I also read his defense is "fringy." Not fringe average. Just "fringy." There was also talks of him being a super sub. I'm guessing he also doesn't profile well in the OF if he has stuck at 2b/3b so long. Then listen to Bloom talk about Valdez as a hitter... Yeah.“The players we got are players we’re really excited about,” chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom said. “Both these guys are fast risers in the Houston system. I don’t just mean in terms of the levels they’re at. But bust in terms of the progression of their skills. Really good hitters. Valdez plays a lot of different positions but the bat is really the calling card. It’s come on very well and very quickly. Really, when you go under the hood, there’s a lot of things he does that make him a very complete hitter. He makes contact. He manages at-bats. He drives the ball. He covers all different pitch types. Covers the strike zone really well. He’s really come on this year, making nice progress offensively.
Notice Chaim specifically says, "plays all 3 outfield positions." "made himself an asset on defense." His scouting reports will actually mention his defense, saying defensively he can handle centerfield, and test highly well as an athlete (paraphrasing). Not just that he's plays games at positions. That's cool. Lots of guys play games at positions. Thanks for all that information.“Abreu, another kid who is a hitter we liked who also plays all three outfield positions,” Bloom added. “Has made himself an asset on defense. Both guys being left-handed hitters add to our picture. And recognizing they are in the minor leagues now, we think both these guys have a chance to really help us and help over time make our roster more talented, deeper, more complete.”
DalbecThe prospects are my favorite part of the game. By comparison, do you happen to know Dalbec and Duran’s K% in AA/AAA?
https://nesn.com/2022/08/eric-hosmer-trade-evaluating-prospects-red-sox-acquired-padres/Both of these guys are plus-runners, good athletes — Ferguson an infielder and Rosier an outfielder,” Bloom told reporters Tuesday night. “Both really interesting, lower-level prospects with good athleticism and really interesting broad base of skills.
He switched at the AAA level. He started to struggle a lot at the AA level where his speed was no longer enough to beat out everything for a hit. And kind of?Dalbec’s AAA walk rate, yikes.
What level did Duran change his stance/approach? Was his K% lower before he starting going for power?
And I’m really not that impressed, at least on paper, with the Hosmer guys.
Drive. That Drive team also had AAAAAA at-the-time prospect Anderson Espinoza and Kopech throwing 98mph heat. Espinoza is still the best pitcher that I have seen here in person. Detts, may he rest in peace, would argue Henry Owens to his last breath. He probably did.For the Red Sox or the Drive?
https://www.statscrew.com/minorbaseball/roster/t-gd11826/y-2015Williams Jerez, Michael Kopech, Javy Guerra, Chandler Shepherd, Aaron Wilkerson, Ben Taylor, Koji Uehara, Ty Buttrey, Jamie Callahan, Michael Chavis, Denny Bautista, Andrew Benintendi, Jalen Beeks, Edwin Escobar, Mauricio Dubon, Anderson Espinoza, Rafael Devers and Yoan Moncada were all players from the 2015 Greenville Drive who played in the Majors during their careers.
MayerFeels like every time I check the box score these days Mayer is on base 2-3 times.
Any concerns on the K rate? Even in the last 27 games where he is crushing the ball, he is still striking out close to 25% of the time.Mayer
First 28 games: 131 PA, .319/.397/.558, .427 BAbip. 15bb/36k
Next 8 games: 39 PA, .086/.180/.114, .130 BAbip, 4bb/12k
Last 27 games: 125 PA, .326/.480/600, .419 BAbip, 28bb/29k.
Total: 295 PA, .288/.403/.510, .381 BAbip, 47bb/77k.
Over the last 27 games, he's reach base in all but 2.
Reached base two or more times in 17 games.
3 or more in 12 games.
4 times in 4 games.
Minus that one 8 game stretch in June, he's been lights out. Also nice to see the 28bb/29k over the last 27.
He's right around 300 PA, so I think there's a change he gets promoted to A+ once he does so.
They'll need to figure out what to do with Lugo/Yorke as Lugo profiles as the better defender at 2b. I'm guessing they'll favor Nick Yorke anyway (better prospect, let him stick at 2b as long as he can) and Lugo will move somewhere else, maybe 3rd. Of course, they have Max Ferguson now too. There's a glut of IF in the lower levels and no one at Greenville really screams promotion. If they promote Kavadas, it would open the DH spot to rotate players.
It should solve itself next year, at least in the first half.
Not a concern right now as long as it holds steady there as he moves up. Somewhere closer to 20% would be great but 25% isn't a killer. It's the 30% range and up (The Dalbec Zone, if you will) that is the danger area and you may worry a bit more about contact ability.Any concerns on the K rate? Even in the last 27 games where he is crushing the ball, he is still striking out close to 25% of the time.
It's something to keep an eye on, for sure. I wouldn't call it a concern but there is a small danger that as he moves up in levels, the K% gets worse. A lot of that should be combatted by improvement though. This is his first year in a full season league and he's 19 until December.Any concerns on the K rate? Even in the last 27 games where he is crushing the ball, he is still striking out close to 25% of the time.
Where do you think Blaze ends up defensively if his bat gets him to the bigs?It's something to keep an eye on, for sure. I wouldn't call it a concern but there is a small danger that as he moves up in levels, the K% gets worse. A lot of that should be combatted by improvement though. This is his first year in a full season league and he's 19 until December.
On a side note: I find Blaze Jordan remarkable. He is also 19 until December and while he hasn't had Mayer's year, he's had a decent year of his own. 9.2% BB%/16.2% K%. The big questions on Jordan is that he'd strike out too much and/or not make enough contact. He hasn't hit for much power yet this year but one would think it's coming. And the other signs are really encouraging, especially the K%. In the early going, it's actually been a strength. Also his first year in a full season league.
edit: but yeah. Around 30% is where it's problematic. 25% is ok, especially given age. Mayer only has 11 PA against younger players.
Probably 1st, but he's greatly improved his chances sticking at 3rd by getting fit. He has slimmed down considerably since signing with the Red Sox. Though some say the weight loss led to a loss in power as well.Where do you think Blaze ends up defensively if his bat gets him to the bigs?
Great post. At this point I’m convinced they’re just waiting to call him up so he preserves rookie eligibility next year to qualify for the Prospect Promotion Incentive picks, I believe that would be after August 19th.I posted these in the Hosmer thread, but they belong here too.
.264/.359/.536 vs R. 22bb/29k in 167 PA
.216/.344/.275 vs L. 10bb/22k in 61 PA
.298/.424/.540 vs R. 51bb/51k in 288 PA
.219/.289/.301 vs L. 6bb/20k in 83 PA
I'd be close to calling him up. I'm not sure how many more lefties he's going to face the rest of the year but by the time he gets enough exposure vs L, it will be like 2025 or 2026.
He has a career 249 PA vs L over the course of 256 Games (3 years). He probably had next to none vs quality lefties prior to the minors. Even if one is generous, he probably has less than 300 career PA vs L.
On the other hand, he has 855 PA vs R since joining the Sox and he's done nothing but mash.
These are mind boggling splits.
2022: .272 ISO vs R, 13.2% BB%, 17.4% K%
2022: .059 ISO vs L, 16.4% BB%, 36.1% K%
2021: .242 ISO vs R, 17.7% BB%, 17.7% K%
2021: .082 ISO vs L, 7.2% BB%, 24.1% K%.
He has 23 XBH in 2022. 20 are vs R. All 9 of his HR are vs R.
He had 32 XBH in 2021. 28 were vs R. 13 of his 14 HR vs R.
At some point, the Sox will have to let Casas learn how to hit lefties on the job. There just aren't enough PA in a year vs L to keep Casas down much longer.
That's some very good power from a 21/22 year old player with very good BB% and K% vs RHP. I have a hard time buying the argument he needs a lot more seasoning in AAA, and that he will get that seasoning in a month of games at the IL level.
Perales has a chance to really blow up next year if he starts strong in Salem. Reports on his stuff are really encouraging.Perales already jumped into the top 30 with the Sox prospects update. Dobbins is ranked now at 36.
Crazy Jordan is 18th now. This system is deep.
From what I've heard on Perales, he sits anywhere from 93-96 and tops out anywhere from 97 to 99. Matches sox prospects report of sits mid 90s, tops out in high 90s.Perales has a chance to really blow up next year if he starts strong in Salem. Reports on his stuff are really encouraging.
The SoxProspects guys seem really down on Jordan’s ability to deal with velocity, something to keep an eye on as he advances.
With the new draftees and trade acquisitions there should be at least 3 interesting everyday guys at every level, with more the lower down you go; like every prospect in the SP projected starting 9 for Salem is some level of intriguing. Really love what Bloom has done with the system, can’t wait ‘til the machine starts churning out MLB talent.