Minor league thread 2022

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Corey Rosier: Had a solid debut last year in minimal time. Projects to be a decent CF but has been blocked by another player at the same position.

In his A ball debut, he slashed .390/.461/.585 in 141 PA with 14xbh/3HRs, 13/16 in sb, 18bb/20k. 12.8% BB%/14.2% K%.

This year has been more of the same, minus the power.

2022: .263/.381/.396 in 373 PA. 21 xbh/6HRs, 33/37 in sb, 54bb/68k. 14.5% BB%, 18.2% K %.

He's interesting. He's a bit old for the league he's in but could earn a promotion to AA. He puts the bat on the ball and given his speed, that's a good thing. He can also draw a walk. We'll know more as he moves up a level. I think he's my 2nd favorite prospect acquired.

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Max Ferguson: Another speedy player with a defensive profile. Ferguson has had an odd career and I'm not sure what to make of him. He walks, a lot. He strikes out. He's like Two Outcomes? This year, he's been slightly better making contact and is hitting for a little more power... which would be hard not to do. He's probably my least favorite of the guys acquired.

2021: .212/.382/.297 in 152 PA, 15/16 sb, 8 xbh, 31bb/42k. 20.4% BB% 27.6% K%.
2022: .221/.365/.358 in 432 PA. 55/60 sb, 27xbh/6 HR, 75bb/101k. 17.4% BB%, 23.3% K%.

He's going to have to hit for a better average to take advantage of his base running ability. I also doubt he's going to maintain those walk rates. In some ways, he reminds me of Brainer Bonaci.

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I can see what Bloom was doing selecting these 4 players. Chances are none will amount to much but you can see where they would add value if they work out. They all walk at a decent clip, too.
Thanks for your work in this thread. It’s terrific.
 

TimScribble

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Analyzing the New Guys: This is just scouting by the numbers, adjusting for age. Not using scouting reports except for defense. I have not seen any of these players, obviously. Nor have I had time to talk with people who might have. With that said, I've been checking box scores for 25 years now and there are some things numbers actually do tell you. I'm also going to be on the optimistic side.

For reference, this is what I consider age appropriate for prospects.
A: 18-19.9
A+: 18-20.9
AA: 18-22.9
AAA: 22.9-24.9

Enmanuel Valdez: His first 4 years (ages 17-20) he struggled to hit for average or power but showed a decent eye.
Stateside
Year 1 (18yo, RK) 12.5% BB%/19.6% K% .178 ISO
Year 2 (19yo, A-) 8.3% BB%/20.0% K% .176 ISO
Year 3 (20yo, A/A+) 7.8% BB%/21.2% K% .138 ISO

2020 was wiped out due to Covid. That would have been his age 21 season. I sometimes wonder if certain prospects get undervalued because they are an age older at a certain level due to the missed year, and didn't have much of a track record before. Had Valdez put up his age 22 season at age 21, how different would things be?

Anyway, that sets up his age 22 season. He had a break out year in 2021 and added some power to his game while still maintaining his plate discipline. He's carried that over into his age 23 season and has had a monster year, but it's really not that far off from his year 4. Just a better BAbip.

Year 4 (22 yo A+/AA): 9.2% BB%/21.5% K%, .279 ISO.
Year 5 (23 yo AA/AAA) 11.9% BB%/20.1% K%, .279 ISO

I find it odd that he's played mostly 2b/3b thru his minor league career even though he profiles as a guy with no position. Though this year he has played quite a few games in LF, but still more at 2b and 3rd.

He's pretty close to being ready. It is not uncommon at all for a player to add power in his age 21 season and he's always had a decent eye. He is not a 3 outcomes player. He's a guy who has maintained a 10.0% BB%/20.0% K% (185bb/371k, I love math) through out his minor league career of 1857 PA.

Out of all the 4 prospects the Sox acquired, he's by far the one I'm most excited about. There's a chance they have a real player here if he can settle down at a position and/or he hits enough to DH. His last 2 years are incredibly promising and would be looked at differently if they were ages 21 and 22. He is going to make the Majors. How long he sticks is another matter. He is 62 days YOUNGER than Niko and 2 levels further along.

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Wilymer Abreu: Also struggled for his first 4 years. Unlike Valdez, he is a plus defender in the OF and has plus speed. He started to hit for power in 2021 but sold out to the K. This year, his BB% has spiked dramatically, which is interesting. He's also been relatively old for each step in the minors, though he's been mostly age appropriate this year. This is especially true if he earns a promotion to AAA.
Stateside
Year 1: 11.1% BB%, 20.0% K%, .089 ISO
Year 2: 8.8% BB%, 20.9% K%, .110 ISO
Year 3: 11.5% BB%, 29.9% K%, .227 ISO
Year 4: 19.0% BB%, 26.3% K%, .210 ISO.

He's also become a better base stealer. He is 23 for 24 this year. Prior to this year, he was 31 for 58. I guess it's possible it's luck but that's pretty drastic. I worry about how he will hold up at the next level or the Majors because he has become a three outcomes player. I also worry that the huge spike in walks this year will be Ks at the MLB level. I had this same concern about Bobby Dalbec. The fear is they are just looking at pitches and when the quality of pitcher goes up, they are looking at strikes instead of balls. If he can cut down on the Ks while still hitting for power, he's interesting. I'm not sure he can. He's probably more likely than not to get a cup of Coffee in the Majors, though not as much a certainty as Valdez. Making the Majors could be 1 PA.

Other 2 will be in a separate post coming up. Don't want a super long post and it's also a separate trade.
What have you seen about Valdez’s defense? I know the knock is he has no home. But is he Arroyo level?
 

Cesar Crespo

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What have you seen about Valdez’s defense? I know the knock is he has no home. But is he Arroyo level?
I mean, this is what Bloom said.

“The players we got are players we’re really excited about,” chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom said. “Both these guys are fast risers in the Houston system. I don’t just mean in terms of the levels they’re at. But bust in terms of the progression of their skills. Really good hitters. Valdez plays a lot of different positions but the bat is really the calling card. It’s come on very well and very quickly. Really, when you go under the hood, there’s a lot of things he does that make him a very complete hitter. He makes contact. He manages at-bats. He drives the ball. He covers all different pitch types. Covers the strike zone really well. He’s really come on this year, making nice progress offensively.
The fact Bloom kind of didn't talk about Valdez's defense says quite a lot. "He plays a lot of positions." I mean, ok. I also read his defense is "fringy." Not fringe average. Just "fringy." There was also talks of him being a super sub. I'm guessing he also doesn't profile well in the OF if he has stuck at 2b/3b so long. Then listen to Bloom talk about Valdez as a hitter... Yeah.

If you continue to read the article I linked, it will say he has played games at 2b, 3b and both corner OF spots. That's it. It fails to describe how he plays those positions. Just that he played them.

Bloom About Abreu:
“Abreu, another kid who is a hitter we liked who also plays all three outfield positions,” Bloom added. “Has made himself an asset on defense. Both guys being left-handed hitters add to our picture. And recognizing they are in the minor leagues now, we think both these guys have a chance to really help us and help over time make our roster more talented, deeper, more complete.”
Notice Chaim specifically says, "plays all 3 outfield positions." "made himself an asset on defense." His scouting reports will actually mention his defense, saying defensively he can handle centerfield, and test highly well as an athlete (paraphrasing). Not just that he's plays games at positions. That's cool. Lots of guys play games at positions. Thanks for all that information.

So no one has outright said it and I could be reading the tea laves wrong, but I'm guessing Valdez defense is pretty bad but he may rake just enough to actually earn the DH spot. He's also 23 so maybe he improves a little defensively. I think there's a very high likelihood he's all or nothing. Either he hits well enough to be the full time DH or he doesn't and the bat doesn't justify carrying him on the roster. I don't see the super sub role unless I'm reading the situation wrong. There's usually a reason for the lack of descriptive words.

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2022/08/boston-red-sox-trade-who-are-prospects-enmanuel-valdez-wilyer-abreu-from-christian-vazquez-deal.html
edit: Guessing bust is supposed to be both. What an unfortunate typo lol.
 

Cesar Crespo

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FWIW, I agree with Chaim about Valdez re: hitting. He's not 3 outcomes. The guy puts the bat on the ball. He added power naturally (probably a bad word) and not by selling out to strike outs. He's mostly the same hitter he has always been except he's added HR power. That adds 20-30 hits a year, which improves the average and OBP (obviously). I don't want to put any % on it, but I think he could be a special hitter. I chose to dream.
 

TimScribble

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The prospects are my favorite part of the game. By comparison, do you happen to know Dalbec and Duran’s K% in AA/AAA?
 

Cesar Crespo

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The prospects are my favorite part of the game. By comparison, do you happen to know Dalbec and Duran’s K% in AA/AAA?
Dalbec
AA: 13.1% BB%, 27.7% K%, 563 PA
AAA: 4.1% BB%, 23.6% k%, 123 PA. Huh. I could have sworn he got more PA than that but no. He hasn't played a game in the minors since 2019.

Duran
AA: 6.5% BB%, 23.9%, 352 PA
AAA: 10.4% BB% 23.7% K%, 481 PA


Also, here's a take on the Hosmer trade.

Bloom:
Both of these guys are plus-runners, good athletes — Ferguson an infielder and Rosier an outfielder,” Bloom told reporters Tuesday night. “Both really interesting, lower-level prospects with good athleticism and really interesting broad base of skills.
https://nesn.com/2022/08/eric-hosmer-trade-evaluating-prospects-red-sox-acquired-padres/
 

TimScribble

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Dalbec’s AAA walk rate, yikes.

What level did Duran change his stance/approach? Was his K% lower before he starting going for power?

And I’m really not that impressed, at least on paper, with the Hosmer guys.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dalbec’s AAA walk rate, yikes.

What level did Duran change his stance/approach? Was his K% lower before he starting going for power?

And I’m really not that impressed, at least on paper, with the Hosmer guys.
He switched at the AAA level. He started to struggle a lot at the AA level where his speed was no longer enough to beat out everything for a hit. And kind of?

2018: 15.9% K%
2019: 22.1% K% (but that includes his AA time, in A+ it was 19.5%.

His AA K% could be partly due to changing levels while the 2021 K% jump could be K%, but he also was new to AAA (but Covid, I'm sure players still developed some in 2020).

And I get not being impressed by the SD guys but if Rosier has the slightest bump in power, he becomes an every day player. He's a contact hitter with good plate discipline, plus plus speed and an above average defender at a premium position (CF). Of course, he'll be 23 soon so chances of that bump coming are slim. It's possible the rest of the skills are enough to carry him to a back up role. Having cheap 4th OFs for 200-250 PA who can draw a walk, steal a base and play good D have value even if it isn't sexy.

Ferguson? Meh. He has quite a few holes in his game and a lot of things need to go right. Doesn't hit for average, or power, strikes out a bit. Average defender at a ok position (2b). Where as Rosier is one skill away from being a legit MLB player. I wasn't all that impressed with either of them at first either but I've talked myself into Rosier upon a much closer look. He can provide value in a lot of different areas so it's just a matter of hitting for enough power. Minus that one (very serious) flaw, he's a complete baseball player.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Another thing to point out about Rosier that might actually be in his favor, kind of?

vs R: .281/.406/.452 in 267 PA. 44bb/41k. 19 xbh/5HR. 16.5% BB%/15.4% K%, ISO of .171.
vs L: .220/.317/.264 in 106 PA, 10bb/27k. 2 xbh/1 HR. 9.4% BB%/25.5% K%. ISO of .044 (that's sooooo bad, SSS).

That's drastic. It's also the heavy side of a platoon. It's possible the bench player he develops into is the left handed part of a platoon. A bit more than 200-250 PA, a bit less than a regular.

Valdez has a split too but he's good vs both sides. May be a problem in the majors. That's this year only.
vs R: .342/.430/.671 in 279 PA. 33bb/55k. 11.8% BB%, 19.7% K% ISO of .329
vs L: .287/.354/.425 in 99 PA. 8bb/21k. 8.1% BB%, 21.2% K%, ISO of .138.

Last year vs R: .268/.345/.581 in 315 PA
vs L: .215/.267/.398 in 101 PA.

Wilyer Abreu doesn't really have any L/R splits. That makes me like him a little more. Using OPS as a quick measure
2021 vs R: .862, vs L: .841. This year: vs R: .862, vs L: .853.

Ferguson doesn't have any splits either but he mostly gets his value from taking walks.
 

Manzivino

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Feels like every time I check the box score these days Mayer is on base 2-3 times.
OBP up over .400 today, OPS over .900. Last year Yorke got promoted on August 23 after ~350 PA at Salem, Mayer’s probably on a similar timetable.
 

AlNipper49

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Oh man, Kavadas, Lugo, Yorke, Mayer would be a splooge worthy infield. Would be our best since Devers, Chavis, Moncada (and Longhi) 7 or so years ago.
 

koufax32

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I still get a cold shiver seeing “Lugo” listed in a Sox infield. I can’t be the only one.
 

bosox188

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I just wish they would push Kavadas through faster, because he's been pretty over-aged for A and A+ so far. I'd really like to see him get a meaningful amount of time at AA before this season is over, I'm not sure why he really needs to get to 200-300 PAs in A+ before he can move up again. He's destroying the level without any decrease in BB rate or increase in K rate from his low-A numbers, in fact his offensive production has gone up across the board. He's going to be 24 in October, I don't even know why they waited for 250 PA in low-A to promote him.
 

AlNipper49

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For the Red Sox or the Drive?
Drive. That Drive team also had AAAAAA at-the-time prospect Anderson Espinoza and Kopech throwing 98mph heat. Espinoza is still the best pitcher that I have seen here in person. Detts, may he rest in peace, would argue Henry Owens to his last breath. He probably did.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Oh man, Kavadas, Lugo, Yorke, Mayer would be a splooge worthy infield. Would be our best since Devers, Chavis, Moncada (and Longhi) 7 or so years ago.
Add in Hickey at C.

That Greenville team also had Ben10, Dubon, Javy Guerra. Jalen Beeks.
 

Manzivino

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4th round pick Chase Meidroth making his pro debut in the FCL today, so I’d expect the new draftees should start filtering into games in the next 7-10 days.
 

Cesar Crespo

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That was easier than I thought. Here's a roster of the 2015 Greenville Team.

Williams Jerez, Michael Kopech, Javy Guerra, Chandler Shepherd, Aaron Wilkerson, Ben Taylor, Koji Uehara, Ty Buttrey, Jamie Callahan, Michael Chavis, Denny Bautista, Andrew Benintendi, Jalen Beeks, Edwin Escobar, Mauricio Dubon, Anderson Espinoza, Rafael Devers and Yoan Moncada were all players from the 2015 Greenville Drive who played in the Majors during their careers.
https://www.statscrew.com/minorbaseball/roster/t-gd11826/y-2015
 

Cesar Crespo

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Feels like every time I check the box score these days Mayer is on base 2-3 times.
Mayer
First 28 games: 131 PA, .319/.397/.558, .427 BAbip. 15bb/36k
Next 8 games: 39 PA, .086/.180/.114, .130 BAbip, 4bb/12k
Last 27 games: 125 PA, .326/.480/600, .419 BAbip, 28bb/29k.
Total: 295 PA, .288/.403/.510, .381 BAbip, 47bb/77k.

Over the last 27 games, he's reach base in all but 2.
Reached base two or more times in 17 games.
3 or more in 12 games.
4 times in 4 games.

Minus that one 8 game stretch in June, he's been lights out. Also nice to see the 28bb/29k over the last 27.

He's right around 300 PA, so I think there's a change he gets promoted to A+ once he does so.

They'll need to figure out what to do with Lugo/Yorke as Lugo profiles as the better defender at 2b. I'm guessing they'll favor Nick Yorke anyway (better prospect, let him stick at 2b as long as he can) and Lugo will move somewhere else, maybe 3rd. Of course, they have Max Ferguson now too. There's a glut of IF in the lower levels and no one at Greenville really screams promotion. If they promote Kavadas, it would open the DH spot to rotate players.

It should solve itself next year, at least in the first half.
 

Jack Rabbit Slim

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Mayer
First 28 games: 131 PA, .319/.397/.558, .427 BAbip. 15bb/36k
Next 8 games: 39 PA, .086/.180/.114, .130 BAbip, 4bb/12k
Last 27 games: 125 PA, .326/.480/600, .419 BAbip, 28bb/29k.
Total: 295 PA, .288/.403/.510, .381 BAbip, 47bb/77k.

Over the last 27 games, he's reach base in all but 2.
Reached base two or more times in 17 games.
3 or more in 12 games.
4 times in 4 games.

Minus that one 8 game stretch in June, he's been lights out. Also nice to see the 28bb/29k over the last 27.

He's right around 300 PA, so I think there's a change he gets promoted to A+ once he does so.

They'll need to figure out what to do with Lugo/Yorke as Lugo profiles as the better defender at 2b. I'm guessing they'll favor Nick Yorke anyway (better prospect, let him stick at 2b as long as he can) and Lugo will move somewhere else, maybe 3rd. Of course, they have Max Ferguson now too. There's a glut of IF in the lower levels and no one at Greenville really screams promotion. If they promote Kavadas, it would open the DH spot to rotate players.

It should solve itself next year, at least in the first half.
Any concerns on the K rate? Even in the last 27 games where he is crushing the ball, he is still striking out close to 25% of the time.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Any concerns on the K rate? Even in the last 27 games where he is crushing the ball, he is still striking out close to 25% of the time.
Not a concern right now as long as it holds steady there as he moves up. Somewhere closer to 20% would be great but 25% isn't a killer. It's the 30% range and up (The Dalbec Zone, if you will) that is the danger area and you may worry a bit more about contact ability.

I would be curious to know the distribution of those strikeouts—pitch type, swinging, looking, etc. He's such a great talent though that it's certainly not out of the realm to pull that percentage down a bit as he gets more pro time under his belt. He's struck out 35% of the time against LHP in a limited sample, for example, but high schoolers tend to have a lot less experience seeing high-level LHP. He is, of course, still hitting .290/.356/.474 against LHP.
 
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Cesar Crespo

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FCL update

Miguel Bleis went 5/8, 1 2b, 1 3b, 1 HR, 2bb/0k over his last 2 games. For the year, he's slashing .277/.326/.508 in 141 PA with a .374 BAbip. 17 xbh/5 HRs, 15sb/18sba, 8bb/43k. Heard his D looks good in CF.

He hasn't walked much and is striking out over 30% of the time but it's not a huge sample size. He's shown some decent power for an 18 year old and has the speed/power combo with good D.

Johnfrank Salazar is slashing .341/.435/.451 in 108 PA. 15bb/9k, 9 xbh. .366 BAbip. Today is his 19th birthday.

Reports on him are slim, but he received a $400k signing bonus in the 2019 IFA period. Has already started to move off of SS but has a plus arm and could profile well at 2b/3b. He's shown a very good eye, with a 1.67:1 BB/k Ratio but hasn't shown much power to date. Needs to add some power but has the frame to do so (6'1 159 lbs).

Lyonell James, $440k IFA signing in 2019, is slashing .373/.495/.480 in 93 PA with 16bb/11k. .436 BAbip. Again, not too much out there about him. What there is says he can possibly stick at 3b and should add in game power. He's shown a good eye at the plate so far, much like Salazar.

Daniel McElveny, 6th round pick in 2021, was slashing .250/.400/.438 in 80 PA with 15bb/26k before earning a promotion to Salem. Good athlete with the possibility to stick at C. Probably earned his promotion because he's a stateside player. Sometimes, the FCL (well the GCL was) more about assimilating players to the states.

Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz, 4th round pick in 2021, 1.44 era, 25.0 ip, 23 hits, 8r/er, 5bb/27k. The hope with him is he adds velocity as he matures. He has a decent 3 pitch mix and a wide arrange of outcomes. Currently sits around 92 and tops out at 94.

Luis Perales, $75k signing bonus in 2019, 1.23 era, 22.0 ip, 10 hits, 3r/3r, 8bb/30k, 0.818 WHIP. Currently sits around 94-95 and tops out at 98 with potential growth and a curve that shows ridiculous promise. Could be a fast riser in the system. May very well be the best arm in the system under age 20.

Jedixson Paez, $450k signing bonus in 2021, 2.70 era, 40.0 ip, 35 hits, 15r/12er, 12bb/38k. Currently sits around 85 but is projected to add velocity as he matures and has an interesting FB/CB combo.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Any concerns on the K rate? Even in the last 27 games where he is crushing the ball, he is still striking out close to 25% of the time.
It's something to keep an eye on, for sure. I wouldn't call it a concern but there is a small danger that as he moves up in levels, the K% gets worse. A lot of that should be combatted by improvement though. This is his first year in a full season league and he's 19 until December.


On a side note: I find Blaze Jordan remarkable. He is also 19 until December and while he hasn't had Mayer's year, he's had a decent year of his own. 9.2% BB%/16.2% K%. The big questions on Jordan is that he'd strike out too much and/or not make enough contact. He hasn't hit for much power yet this year but one would think it's coming. And the other signs are really encouraging, especially the K%. In the early going, it's actually been a strength. Also his first year in a full season league.

edit: but yeah. Around 30% is where it's problematic. 25% is ok, especially given age. Mayer only has 11 PA against younger players.
 

BigSoxFan

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It's something to keep an eye on, for sure. I wouldn't call it a concern but there is a small danger that as he moves up in levels, the K% gets worse. A lot of that should be combatted by improvement though. This is his first year in a full season league and he's 19 until December.


On a side note: I find Blaze Jordan remarkable. He is also 19 until December and while he hasn't had Mayer's year, he's had a decent year of his own. 9.2% BB%/16.2% K%. The big questions on Jordan is that he'd strike out too much and/or not make enough contact. He hasn't hit for much power yet this year but one would think it's coming. And the other signs are really encouraging, especially the K%. In the early going, it's actually been a strength. Also his first year in a full season league.

edit: but yeah. Around 30% is where it's problematic. 25% is ok, especially given age. Mayer only has 11 PA against younger players.
Where do you think Blaze ends up defensively if his bat gets him to the bigs?
 

Cesar Crespo

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Where do you think Blaze ends up defensively if his bat gets him to the bigs?
Probably 1st, but he's greatly improved his chances sticking at 3rd by getting fit. He has slimmed down considerably since signing with the Red Sox. Though some say the weight loss led to a loss in power as well.

Stats suggest that may be true, though I don't buy it. At least not yet.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I posted these in the Hosmer thread, but they belong here too.
------
Casas:
2022
.264/.359/.536 vs R. 22bb/29k in 167 PA
.216/.344/.275 vs L. 10bb/22k in 61 PA

2021
.298/.424/.540 vs R. 51bb/51k in 288 PA
.219/.289/.301 vs L. 6bb/20k in 83 PA
-----
I'd be close to calling him up. I'm not sure how many more lefties he's going to face the rest of the year but by the time he gets enough exposure vs L, it will be like 2025 or 2026.

He has a career 249 PA vs L over the course of 256 Games (3 years). He probably had next to none vs quality lefties prior to the minors. Even if one is generous, he probably has less than 300 career PA vs L.

On the other hand, he has 855 PA vs R since joining the Sox and he's done nothing but mash.

These are mind boggling splits.
2022: .272 ISO vs R, 13.2% BB%, 17.4% K%
2022: .059 ISO vs L, 16.4% BB%, 36.1% K%

2021: .242 ISO vs R, 17.7% BB%, 17.7% K%
2021: .082 ISO vs L, 7.2% BB%, 24.1% K%.

He has 23 XBH in 2022. 20 are vs R. All 9 of his HR are vs R.
He had 32 XBH in 2021. 28 were vs R. 13 of his 14 HR vs R.

At some point, the Sox will have to let Casas learn how to hit lefties on the job. There just aren't enough PA in a year vs L to keep Casas down much longer.

That's some very good power from a 21/22 year old player with very good BB% and K% vs RHP. I have a hard time buying the argument he needs a lot more seasoning in AAA, and that he will get that seasoning in a month of games at the IL level.
 
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Manzivino

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I posted these in the Hosmer thread, but they belong here too.
------
Casas:
2022
.264/.359/.536 vs R. 22bb/29k in 167 PA
.216/.344/.275 vs L. 10bb/22k in 61 PA

2021
.298/.424/.540 vs R. 51bb/51k in 288 PA
.219/.289/.301 vs L. 6bb/20k in 83 PA
-----
I'd be close to calling him up. I'm not sure how many more lefties he's going to face the rest of the year but by the time he gets enough exposure vs L, it will be like 2025 or 2026.

He has a career 249 PA vs L over the course of 256 Games (3 years). He probably had next to none vs quality lefties prior to the minors. Even if one is generous, he probably has less than 300 career PA vs L.

On the other hand, he has 855 PA vs R since joining the Sox and he's done nothing but mash.

These are mind boggling splits.
2022: .272 ISO vs R, 13.2% BB%, 17.4% K%
2022: .059 ISO vs L, 16.4% BB%, 36.1% K%

2021: .242 ISO vs R, 17.7% BB%, 17.7% K%
2021: .082 ISO vs L, 7.2% BB%, 24.1% K%.

He has 23 XBH in 2022. 20 are vs R. All 9 of his HR are vs R.
He had 32 XBH in 2021. 28 were vs R. 13 of his 14 HR vs R.

At some point, the Sox will have to let Casas learn how to hit lefties on the job. There just aren't enough PA in a year vs L to keep Casas down much longer.

That's some very good power from a 21/22 year old player with very good BB% and K% vs RHP. I have a hard time buying the argument he needs a lot more seasoning in AAA, and that he will get that seasoning in a month of games at the IL level.
Great post. At this point I’m convinced they’re just waiting to call him up so he preserves rookie eligibility next year to qualify for the Prospect Promotion Incentive picks, I believe that would be after August 19th.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Valdez with #2 in Worcester. 1/2 with a K so far. Off to a hot start. 3/10 with a BB/2k, 2 HR.
Casas is currently 1/2 with a double.
 

Heating up in the bullpen

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Is Stephen Scott becoming a prospect?
Currently hitting .260/.403/.470 for Portland in 30 games, 129 PA. His walk:strikeout ratio is a fantastic 24:26 (18.6% BB, 20.2% K).
He's got a two-year oddity of hitting better AFTER being advanced a level. Last year he had an .834 OPS over 61 games for Salem, then a 1.036 OPS in 39 games for Greenville. This year he was at .641 in 37 games for Greenville, and now .873 in 30 games for Portland.
This is the first year he's been solely a catcher. Previously had played 1B, RF and LF also. Has anybody seen him catch, can report on how he looks behind the plate?
25 years old. Senior sign out of Vanderbilt, 10th round 2019. Got 39 games at Lowell in 2019, then Salem/Greenville in 2021. Sox Prospects doesn't have him rated in their Top 60.
 

Ale Xander

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They pitch fast (time between pitches) in the minors, even Connor. This is great.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Perales already jumped into the top 30 with the Sox prospects update. Dobbins is ranked now at 36.

Crazy Jordan is 18th now. This system is deep.
 

Manzivino

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Perales already jumped into the top 30 with the Sox prospects update. Dobbins is ranked now at 36.

Crazy Jordan is 18th now. This system is deep.
Perales has a chance to really blow up next year if he starts strong in Salem. Reports on his stuff are really encouraging.

The SoxProspects guys seem really down on Jordan’s ability to deal with velocity, something to keep an eye on as he advances.

With the new draftees and trade acquisitions there should be at least 3 interesting everyday guys at every level, with more the lower down you go; like every prospect in the SP projected starting 9 for Salem is some level of intriguing. Really love what Bloom has done with the system, can’t wait ‘til the machine starts churning out MLB talent.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Perales has a chance to really blow up next year if he starts strong in Salem. Reports on his stuff are really encouraging.

The SoxProspects guys seem really down on Jordan’s ability to deal with velocity, something to keep an eye on as he advances.

With the new draftees and trade acquisitions there should be at least 3 interesting everyday guys at every level, with more the lower down you go; like every prospect in the SP projected starting 9 for Salem is some level of intriguing. Really love what Bloom has done with the system, can’t wait ‘til the machine starts churning out MLB talent.
From what I've heard on Perales, he sits anywhere from 93-96 and tops out anywhere from 97 to 99. Matches sox prospects report of sits mid 90s, tops out in high 90s.

--- New Guys--
It's funny how all of them are performing in their first 3 games how one would expect, looking at their stats. It's like a 3 game sample size that represents their season.

Really like what I've seen from Valdez so far too. I knew I'd like him though. There's a lot to like if one wants to dig deep into his stats. Off to a great start in Worcester. .250/.412/.750 in his first 17 PA. 2 HRs, 4bb/2k.
Power hitter who puts the bat on the ball. Haven't seen too much of his D. He's had 10 chances, and has been fine thus far.

Wilyer Abreu is off to a .273/.529/.364 start in 17 PA. 6bb/5k. The worry with him is he's 3 outcomes and that's what he's been. He's walking a ridiculous amount this year. As I noted a few days ago, I worry those turn into Ks at higher levels. His 3 True Outcomes % this year is at an even 50% if you subtract out HBP. He has already played all 3 OF positions for Portland.

Max Ferguson is off to a .167/.333/.250 start in 15 PA with 3bb/6k. He has 1sb and has played SS all 3 games. Much of his value is tied up in the BB and he strikes out much for a guy with little power.

Corey Rosier didn't play yesterday. I don't know if that was scheduled. I'm guessing yes. He is slashing .000/.375/.000 in 8 PA, with 3bb/1k. 2sb/2sba. He's played a game in CF and in LF. Hasn't had much of a chance to do anything with the bat.

Comparison
Enmanuel Valdez: 395 PA, .325/.410/.611, .360 BAbip, 49bb/78k. 50 xbh/23 HR. 12.4% BB%/19.7% K%, 3 HBP .286 ISO, AA/AAA. 23y222d. 3TO: 38.3%.
Niko Kavadas: 379 PA, .300/.470/.640, .379 BAbip, 80bb/101k. 47 xbh/24 HR. 21.1% BB%,/26.6% K%, 13 HBP, .340 ISO, A/A+. 23y284d. 3TO: 56.0%

I love the hype Niko gets in the MiL forum and the calls for him to be promoted to AA (and rightfully so, he belongs in AA). I wonder how much love Valdez would get in this forum if he was a home grown talent. He's much further along than Niko and his BB%/K% have mostly remained the same throughout his minor league career. (He has 189bb/373k in his career. He has 15bb/31k in AAA right now. It's always 1:2 and around 10%/20%). Hopefully that is the case with Niko but that BB% screams otherwise to me. I'd expect him to strike out over 30% of the time in AA, but he could surprise me. Niko did cut his K% moving up from A to A+ (27.6% to 24.8%).

I'm really high on Valdez. It's funny how he ranks all over the place (SP has him 16, other places have him in the 30s). I wonder if there are any publications who had mid season rankings for the Astros and updated ranking for the Sox with Valdez. I know he was 12th on the updated MLB list but the Sox list isn't updated. They just added the new players to the bottom of the list. If Valdez really was 28th, that says a lot about just how deep the Sox farm system is. I honestly don't know what MLB does with their lists because they have Jay Groome as the Padres 11th best prospect.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Also just noticed Bleis jumped to 5th on sp. I love this kid. The Ks worry me but he's average to plus everywhere else.

My updated list: (I don't rank college players until they've played some and Winckowski graduated)
1. Mayer: The Ks are mildly concerning and he's had some issues staying on the field but I don't know what's not to like.
2. Casas: I think he's ready for the show. He has a huge weakness against lefties but that's not going to resolve itself anytime soon. Keep him down long enough to keep him a rookie in 2023.
3. Bello: I love his potential but he needs a little more seasoning. I think he can stick at SP but I'm a huge fan boy.
4. Bleis: Already noted, the K% worries me but everything else is there. He will be a month older than Nick Yorke and 3 months younger than Marcelo Mayer were at the A level next year.
5. Yorke: He's struggled a lot this year. I know some of it is injury but a .231/.302/.353 season is ugly, especially when he tore the same league up last year in his first 96 PA. He did go 3/5 with a HR yesterday. Maybe he'll finish the year strong.
6. Rafaela: He's still holding his own in Portland and has a really high floor due to his defensive versatility, speed and plus arm. Looks like the power is legit too. He is a free swinger which leads to a bunch of weak contact. That could be a problem, considering his very low BB%. He's going to have to hit for average.
7. Walter: Hasn't pitched in a while but I really like his stuff out of the pen.
8. Mata: Like him out of the pen too. The uptick in Ks is nice to see. Hopefully he can maintain the K% and lower the BB% some.
9. Paulino: Probably like him more than most. I think he's overlooked because the team has sexier, younger guys at the same level but he's holding his own.
10. Murphy: He's really improved against lefties this year, which was the one thing holding him back.
11. Enmanuel Valdez: Covered
12: Matthew Lugo: He's struggled of late but is still hitting for power.
13. Hickey: Raking the ball and could stick at C.
14. Jordan: Showing surprising plate discipline, but the lack of power is concerning. Is it due to the weight loss?
15. Wikelman: Great arm, not so great results. He's far behind the development curve.
16. Thaddeus Ward: Looks fully recovered. 5 pitch mix, 2 potential plus, 2 average.
17. Luis Perales: Covered
18. Brainer Bonaci: Great eye. Only thing really holding him back is a lack of power.
19. Hunter Dobbins: Probably have him higher than anyone else but I love his stuff.
20. Wilyer Abreu: Needs to cut back on the Ks but if he does, could develop into something useful.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Losing the shift may take some extra shine off Valdez defensively but I am only basing that off the “no position” scouting reports. You can always find a place for a guy who can rake. And hell we may have DH at bats available.

Maybe Abreu can develop into a pesky Brett Gardner-type but yeah will depend on ability to make contact and just be annoying as hell at the plate along with some pop.
 
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AlNipper49

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Yorke doesn’t just have bad numbers, he looks like he should have bad numbers too. He’s had exceptionally poor pitch selection from what I’ve seen from him. Nuts almost like he is trying too hard. It reminds me a lot of what Pedroia looked like when he first came up (not a complement)
 

RoDaddy

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Very impressive for both to have reached high A at only 19! And love that they are moving up together as my ultimate hope is that they successfully develop and end up hitting 3/4 in Boston as well some day

That said, I agree with Manzivino about SPs concern with Jordan struggling with velocity. Please please don't let him turn into Michael Chavis unable to hit high fastballs!

And as happens every year, there's good and bad. Yorke's meteoric rise last year looks suspect. Just hope he doesn't turn into Jeter Downs
 

AlNipper49

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Cool! I’m going tomorrow night. It’s the official opening of the ‘356 Club’ which is Greenville single A answer to Yawkey Way being converted from a regular street to basically an extension of the park. (The 356 is Shoeless Joe’s lifetime average)
 

Manzivino

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Romero and Anthony debuting in the FCL today, Romero at SS leading off and Anthony in CF hitting second

Edit: Also Meidroth and Salazar promoted to Salem
 
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Cesar Crespo

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Salazar is one to keep an eye on, as far as international players. Finished the FCL slashing. 327/.434/.446 with 17bb/9k in 122 PA. 13.9% BB% and an absolutely ridiculous 7.4% K%.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Cross posting some from the Sox forum.

Rafaela 2022
vs R: .318/.364/.550 in 344 PA. 43 xbh/15 HR. 18bb/68k.
vs L: .241/.268/.537 in 56 PA, 9 xbh/2HR, 1bb/22k.

Rafaela 2021
vs R: .248/.305/.376 in 353 PA. 25 xbh/6 HR, 21bb/61k.
vs L: .267/.304/.672 in 79 PA, 14 xbh/4 HR, 4bb/18k.

I guess the power vs R is a new thing.
18: .105 ISO vs R, .125 ISO vs L
19: .096 ISO vs R, .375 ISO vs L
20: .128 ISO vs R, .405 ISO vs L
21: .232 ISO vs R, .296 ISO vs L

There was a comparison to Alcides Escobar.

Alcides Escobar had a career .096 ISO in the minors and a career .087 ISO in the MLB. His best ISO in the minors was .111 as a 22 year old in the PCL (AAA).

Meanwhile, Rafaela's career ISO in the minors is .185. His career low ISO for a season is .108 which came as a 17 year old.
.108 ISO at 17
.168 ISO at 18
.173 ISO at 20
.250 ISO at 21.
Covid cancelled his age 19 season. His power has been on the rise for awhile now. His 2021 ended on a tear too: 47 games, 209 PA, .285/.323/.523, .311 BAbip. 25 xbh/8 HR. 9bb/37k.


I can kind of see the comparison if it was "Alcides Escobar with some pop." Escobar had 35 HR in 3373 PA in the minors. Rafaela has 36 HR in 1245 PA. 25 of those have come in his last 609 PA. I wonder if there is a reason they are so down on his power. Their scouting report says this. I haven't heard the podcast.
Sneaky raw power. Will show above-average power in batting practice to all fields. In-game power is more noticeable to the pull side. Potential average in-game power.
That doesn't sound like low pop. His season this year doesn't look low pop and it's a continuation of last year. Even if he's putting up power numbers similar to Duran this year (.147 ISO) and hits .260, that's something close to .260/.300/.407 with plus speed and plus defense in CF. That's a valuable player. Alcides was .258/.295/.345 in his MLB career.

Looking at their minor league slash lines, Escobar was at .292/.333/.388. Rafaela is at .272/.326/.457. Escobar also had a 4 year stretch where he put up 9.2 WAR. 8.0 oWAR, 5.2 dWAR. Don't know how that works but ok. That's a great outcome if they got a 4 year stretch of 9.2 WAR during Rafaela's 6 years of control. Give him a little more pop and it's gravy, actually.

When I first heard the comparison I was like "meh, is that all?" but you don't have to be the best hitter in the world to provide real value when you do everything else well. And not everyone has to stick around for a 2nd contract.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Salazar is one to keep an eye on, as far as international players. Finished the FCL slashing. 327/.434/.446 with 17bb/9k in 122 PA. 13.9% BB% and an absolutely ridiculous 7.4% K%.
Each went 1-2 with a single today. Coffey got an AB as well and walked. Bleis was 1-2 with another 2b and no strikeouts.