Minor league thread 2022

burstnbloom

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JBJ also played his High A season in Lancaster, which made the current Worcester Polar Vortex seem like a standard wind stadium. Comparing power numbers there to either Salem or Greenville isnt comparing like with like. Outside of Lancaster, JBJ never showed any plus power - more like the 50ish power that he showed in the majors. Rafaela really looks like he might have 60-65 power.

I agree that Mookie similar player would be more slugging heavy and a 99th percentile outcome, but his realistic ceiling (say 80th percentile), seems like it could be a JBJ with more power - this JBJs best seasons (2015/2016) as a baseline with maybe a couple outlier seasons where hes a true power guy. Of course, his median outcome at this point is probably a AAAA washout given the plate discipline, but there's some realistic 4 win upside between the defense and power without him going Mookie.
The Red Sox were only affiliated with Lancaster for the 07 and 08 seasons. Jackie played at Greenville and Salem.
 

mikcou

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The Red Sox were only affiliated with Lancaster for the 07 and 08 seasons. Jackie played at Greenville and Salem.
You are correct. I have no idea why, but I thought that entire crew of Brentz, JBJ, etc. played at Lancaster in the last season of affiliation. JBJ did not maintain the power numbers above high A in any event so if Rafaela finishes the rest of the season with a SLG of 525+ that is materially different than the JBJ path (who was a year older in his A+/AA season).
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Can’t speak to his catching at all but Ronaldo Hernandez has hit enough this year to be potentially interesting as part of a post-Vaz reality. No walks but hitting for average and some power: .293/.311/.478 while sharing time behind the dish with Wong, who has also been adequate.
 

Diamond Don Aase

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Can’t speak to his catching at all but Ronaldo Hernandez has hit enough this year to be potentially interesting as part of a post-Vaz reality. No walks but hitting for average and some power: .293/.311/.478 while sharing time behind the dish with Wong, who has also been adequate.
Hernandez entered this afternoon’s game batting .371 .385 .601 in 188 Triple-A plate appearances since May 21. Today’s walk was his first since June 26, however, and Boston has not been the place for a young batter to improve patience (or discipline or approach), as Duran and Downs have been so eager to illustrate. The strongest argument for Hernandez to be among the major-league catchers next season, though, is that he will be out of options after this season while Wong will have another season of options next year.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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Dobbins continues his great stretch. 5.0 ip, 3hits, 1r/1er, 2bb/8k. I'm guessing he is done for the day.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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FCL stuff going into today
Bleis continues to perform well: .276/.313/.476 with 3 HRs, 11sb/1cs, 5bb/32k. 112 PA.

Lyonell James is showing a really good eye. He has raw power that could eventually translate. Slashing .393/.528/.518 with 14bb/6k in 72 PA.

2021 6th round pick Daniel McElveny is off to a good start. Slashing .280/.419/.480 in 62 PA, 11bb/17k.

Johnfrank Salazar continues to do well: .347/.448/.458 in 87 PA with 13bb/8k.

Jedixson Paez: 3.08 era, 35.2 ip, 34 hits, 13r/12er, 10bb/33k.

Luis Peralas: 1.13 era, 16.0 ip, 8 hits, 2r/2er, 5bb/23k.

Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz: 1.29 era, 21.0 ip, 20 hits, 7r/3er, 4bb/22k.

----

Today
Bleis is currently 1/1 with a BB.
McElveny is 1/1 with a BB
James is 1/2 with a K.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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DSL stuff: Looks like the Sox DSL teams are on the old side but here are some noteworthy performances from 18 year olds.
Inmer Lobo: 0.82 era, 22.0 ip, 15 hits, 2r/2er, 1 HRA, 2bb/28k. 34.1% K rate.
Armando Sierra: .316/.387/.478 in 155 PA. 15bb/15k, 16xbh, 3 HRs.
Alvaro Mejias: 1.74 era, 20.2 ip, 11 hits, 7r/4er, 5bb/28k. 34.6% K rate
 

Cesar Crespo

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Yorke with #6, 1/4

Mayer is currently 2/2 with a double and a walk.
Bonaci is 1/2 with a BB... and a HR
Kavadas is 2/3 with the aforementioned HR.
Gonzalez 4.0ip, 1 hit, 3bb/7k. Bases are loaded with 0 out and the game is delayed so... probably wont end that way.

Mata struggled, 2.2 ip, 2 hits, 2r/2er, 4bb/1k

Casas is 0/2 with a K. Hopefully he gets going again soon
Rafaela is 0/3 with 2k.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Wow. Bonaci finished that game 3/4 with 2 HRs and 7 rbi and a bb.

In the scheduled game, he is currently 2/2 with a 2b and a triple. Damn, dude.

So he's currently 4/4 for the day with a "cycle" but it doesn't count because it's 2 games.

He was 1/2 with a HR/BB before the suspension.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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Binky gushing.

Brainer Bonaci's last 5 games: .600/.652/1.300 in 23 PA. 3bb/3k, 2 2 doubles, 2 triples, 2 HR.

In his first 329 PA, he had 13 doubles, 2 triples and 0 HRs. He slashed .242/.380/.314 with 59bb/62k.

For the year, he now sits at .268/.398/.384 with 62bb/65k. 24 xbh/2HRs. 18sb/5cs. 18.5% K%, 17.6% BB%. This is why he's a binky of mine. I love me an outlier. He doesn't hit for power so it's not like he's drawing walks out of pitchers being overly cautious. As a reference: Kavadas had a 27.6% k%/21.3% BB% in Salem over 254 PA but he had an ISO of .322 compared to Bonaci's .116. He's 3y9m older, too. Struck out far more often as well.

I've mentioned this before but I have friends who go to a lot of Salem games. They start conversations with scouts when they are around and Bonaci gets mentioned a lot for a guy ranked 20-30. "The sum is greater than the individual parts." "Classic overachiever." "Baseball player."

He's obviously going to have to hit for more power but there's a chance he grows into some. He just turned 20 on 7/9.. He's also been moved off of SS to 2b which doesn't help his cause. Careers have been made off of less than average+ contact skills, good plate discipline and average defense at 2b though. I'd say Luis Castillo but he had the whole speed thing and was also in the Majors at 21 years old. Post Florida version, maybe.

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Hunter Dobbins last 7 games: 1.11 era, 32.1 ip, 24h, 7r/4er, 4bb/38k. Hitters are slashing .209/.240/.270 on a .299 BAbip. 31.4% K%, 3.3% BB%,
Dobbins last 5 games: 0.74 era, 24.1 ip, 17h, 5r/2er, 3bb/34k. Hitters are slashing .198/.231/.244 on a .308 BAbip. 37.4% K%, 3.3% BB%,

First 5 games: 66% strike %, 17% StL, 8% StS, 54% GB%.
Last 4 games: 73% strike%, 21% StL%, 14% StS, 51% GB%

Again, coming off of TJS. He's not even rated on the Sox prospects top 60 yet but he'll probably enter in the top 30.
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Luis De La Rosa (acquired in Benny deal) has a 2.45 era, 11.0 ip, 9 hits, 3r/3er, 2bb/12k in Salem. He is the youngest pitcher in Salem atm, having turned 20 on 7/7.
For the year, he has a 1.78 era, 25.1 ip, 14 hits, 5r/5er,, 11bb/32k. As someone noted on the main board, he hits a lot of batters. He has 9 hbp in 52.0 ip stateside. Luckily for hitters, he tops out at like 93. There is some projection for him to add velocity, and he will have to to have an MLB career.

If you ignore his 0.2 ip, 4 hit, 6er performance last year, the rest of his 2021: 1.04 era, 26.0 ip, 15 hits, 3r/3er, 8bb/21k.
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Nathan Hickey continues his overlooked season: .273/.389/.455 in 54 PA at Greenville. 8bb/15k.
For the year: .272/.420/.495 in 236 PA. 47bb/54k. I shouldn't say it's completely overlooked. He has found himself on the Sox Prospects top 20.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Casas was 2/20 in his last 23 PA but he had something like a .150 BAbip.

Casas went 2/4 in the game with a double.
Hernandez hit #11, going 1/4 with 2k.
 

Scoops Bolling

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Walk off home run by Kavadas. It's a waste of his time to be in A-ball, they need to promote him to AA to see if they've really got something here.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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Casas with #7. Currently 1/2.

Rafaela is currently 3/3 and hit #8 in Portland, has a SB and a CS. For the year, it's HR #17.
 

Spud

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Nov 15, 2006
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Saw most of the game in Hartford tonight. Rafaela was very impressive. Matt Barnes was not. One inning, one hit, one walk, one earned run. I wasn't keeping a close eye on the velocity, but did see at least one 97. His command was not very good at all. He did, however, get the win!
 

StuckOnYouk

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Barnes was sharp on Thursday night (that's the night I went). Fastball topped out at 97 I believe. Struck out two guys - one on 96mph heat and another on 86mph curve.

And yes, Rafaela looks special. I think he had one hit and one walk on Thursday but he had two outs caught at the warning track - one in CF and one in RF. The ball jumps off his bat.

And kudos to Dunkin Donuts park in Hartford - voted best minor league park for FOURTH year in a row. If only the Sox didn't pull their AA team from CT. Would have been a great flag to keep planted on the Munson/Nixon line. Even putting their AAA team there would have been great - with all due respect to Worcester.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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Rafaela finished 4/4 with a 2b, HR, sb and cs. OPS back over .900. at the level AA level.

AA: 162 PA, .300/.342/.560, 6bb/34k, 20 xbh/8 HR. 8sb/2cs, .339 BAbip. 3.7% BB%, 21.0% K%, .260 ISO
A: 209 PA, .330/.368/.594, 10bb/51k, 30 xbh/9 HR. 14sb/2cs, 409 BAbip, 4.8% BB%, 24.4% K%, .264 ISO

Factoring in the BAbips, he hasn't missed a beat at all upon promotion.

Year: 371 PA, .317/.357/.579, 16bb/85k, 50 xbh/17 HR, 22sb/4cs .378 BAbip, 4.3% BB%, 22.9% K%, .262 ISO

No real home/road split.
OPS by month: .945, .953, .952, .880.

Has quite the reverse split going, but sample size.
Vs R: .328/.369/.581 in 318 PA, 15bb/66k. 41 xbh/15 HR
vs L: .255/.283/.569 in 53 PA, 1bb/19k, 9 xbh/2 HR

I hope the Sox hold on to him. I wouldn't be surprised if he's ranked ahead of Yorke with the end of season/beginning of season lists this offseason depending on how the rest of the season goes. I think the plate discipline is overblown but it is a concern. He puts the bat on the ball, even bad pitches. Rafaela is also fast so he should have higher than normal BAbips. I'd be curious what his swing and miss % is but I don't know where to find that info for minor league players. He's now hit for some real power across 2 levels with no real home/road split.

I think Rafaela could rank anywhere from 40-100 depending on who is making the list.

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Nick Yorke, on the other hand, is slashing .226/.296/.335 in 233 PA. 20bb/54k, 11 xbh/6 HR. .276 BAbip. I know he's been battling some injuries but he's been pretty dreadful. He's only 20 and is battling said injuries, so he won't fall off top 100 lists but he's not going to be anywhere near 31 (BA) again. Unless he has an August like last year's (.414/.500/.816 in 104 PA, 16 xbh/9 HR, 14bb/14k, Ruthian 1.316 OPS). Here's hoping. Barring that, he's going to slip into the bottom half of the top 100, if not third.

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Niko Kavadas went 2/4 yesterday. His OPS dropped .016 points.
Greenville: 99 PA/74 AB, .351/.505/.784, 19bb/22k, 12 xbh/10 HRs. 19.2% BB%, 22.2% K%, .433 ISO, .373 BAbip
Salem: 254 PA/192 AB, .287/.453/.609, 54bb/70k, 33 xbh/14 HRs, 21.3% BB%, 27.6% K%, .322 ISO, .372 BAbip
Year: 353 PA/266 AB, .305/.467/.658, 73bb/92k, 45xbh/24 HRs, 20.7% BB%, 26.1% K%, .353 ISO, .373 BAbip

What are the odds he has the same BAbip in Greenville as Salem? Makes comparisons easy, heh? He's been a monster. I can't remember the last time a Red Sox farmhand finished a season with an OPS over 1.100. He's at 1.125. He needs to be in Portland.
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Phillip Sikes is old but he's doing well this year.
.258/.390/.516 in 195 PA at A. 27 xbh/5 HR, 28bb/55k.
.305/.382/.593 in 56 PA at A+. 8 xbh/4 HR, 7bb/11k.
He was the 18th round pick last year. Turned 23 in April.
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Eddinson Paulino since May 1st: 323 PA, .264/.354/.461, .309 BAbip. 36bb/58k, 34 xbh/7 HR. 19sb/3cs.
May: .279/.367/.442
June: .239/.358/.457
July: .274/.333/.488

He turned 20 on July 2nd. Surprised he doesn't get more love on here. He'll be on some Sox top 10 lists.

--
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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Dobbins with a rough start. 4.0 ip, 7 hits, 5 r/5er, 3bb/4k.
De La Rosa went 3.0 ip, 2 hits, 1r/1er, 1bb/3k.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Have a feeling that he's going to make his Red Sox debut no later than Wednesday.
There are some potential benefits to holding him back a bit longer (until 8/19 I think which would retain his rookie status for next season) but we’ll see.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Oh, I didn't know that, thanks. Something to keep an eye on.
It’s new. Eligible prospects (top 100 guys) can earn the team an extra draft pick if they are high enough in year-end awards and spend all season on the roster. The goal is to try to prevent service time manipulation early in a given season, although for certain teams I would venture a guess the extra year of value is worth more than the extra pick but we’ll see how it plays out.
 

sezwho

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It’s new. Eligible prospects (top 100 guys) can earn the team an extra draft pick if they are high enough in year-end awards and spend all season on the roster. The goal is to try to prevent service time manipulation early in a given season, although for certain teams I would venture a guess the extra year of value is worth more than the extra pick but we’ll see how it plays out.
I'm super curious how this policy shift plays out. The prospect of a high pick, and the associated extra signing $, could be worth millions. I like the idea of minimizing young players' promotion/demotion hijinks (aka not primarily related to performance), but we're already talking about this rule change potentially delaying the arrival of Casas.

I wonder if the odds of a callup actually winning a year end award, which feels quite slim absent any actual analysis of number of awards available against historical call-up numbers and subsequent wins, will really drive different behaviors to the advantage of the player?
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Hickey with a bomb tonight. He and Niko will both enter 2023 as guys to watch making the jump to AA. College bats with really good results this year. If Hickey can hang behind the plate he gets real interesting. Bar is low at the position.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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Hickey with a bomb tonight. He and Niko will both enter 2023 as guys to watch making the jump to AA. College bats with really good results this year. If Hickey can hang behind the plate he gets real interesting. Bar is low at the position.
And Phillip Sikes. Doesn't play a premium position and isn't totally raking like Kavadas but he's having a really good year. He's also quite fast.
 

AlNipper49

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I've seen Sikes a few times and I like him a lot. He'll never be Mike Trout but could fill a bench role as an upside. There is extreme value in being able to fill your #4,5 positions in the outfield with folks who can hit and field. It beats paying JBJ 8m/year for the same. There were a few dark years down here in Greenville where the outfield could have been exchanged with the Savannah Bananas with no appreciable difference or upside.

He's not a prospect but Big Joe Davis is awesome. The entire stadium comes to a halt when he comes up. My 10 year old was trading cards on the outfield berm last game we were at a few weeks ago and amoungst that age group, Big Joe was the #1 card commodity. He's had a few huge late inning hits. He lives in a trailer and has barbeques for his teammates regularly.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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Analyzing the New Guys: This is just scouting by the numbers, adjusting for age. Not using scouting reports except for defense. I have not seen any of these players, obviously. Nor have I had time to talk with people who might have. With that said, I've been checking box scores for 25 years now and there are some things numbers actually do tell you. I'm also going to be on the optimistic side.

For reference, this is what I consider age appropriate for prospects.
A: 18-19.9
A+: 18-20.9
AA: 18-22.9
AAA: 22.9-24.9

Enmanuel Valdez: His first 4 years (ages 17-20) he struggled to hit for average or power but showed a decent eye.
Stateside
Year 1 (18yo, RK) 12.5% BB%/19.6% K% .178 ISO
Year 2 (19yo, A-) 8.3% BB%/20.0% K% .176 ISO
Year 3 (20yo, A/A+) 7.8% BB%/21.2% K% .138 ISO

2020 was wiped out due to Covid. That would have been his age 21 season. I sometimes wonder if certain prospects get undervalued because they are an age older at a certain level due to the missed year, and didn't have much of a track record before. Had Valdez put up his age 22 season at age 21, how different would things be?

Anyway, that sets up his age 22 season. He had a break out year in 2021 and added some power to his game while still maintaining his plate discipline. He's carried that over into his age 23 season and has had a monster year, but it's really not that far off from his year 4. Just a better BAbip.

Year 4 (22 yo A+/AA): 9.2% BB%/21.5% K%, .279 ISO.
Year 5 (23 yo AA/AAA) 11.9% BB%/20.1% K%, .279 ISO

I find it odd that he's played mostly 2b/3b thru his minor league career even though he profiles as a guy with no position. Though this year he has played quite a few games in LF, but still more at 2b and 3rd.

He's pretty close to being ready. It is not uncommon at all for a player to add power in his age 21 season and he's always had a decent eye. He is not a 3 outcomes player. He's a guy who has maintained a 10.0% BB%/20.0% K% (185bb/371k, I love math) through out his minor league career of 1857 PA.

Out of all the 4 prospects the Sox acquired, he's by far the one I'm most excited about. There's a chance they have a real player here if he can settle down at a position and/or he hits enough to DH. His last 2 years are incredibly promising and would be looked at differently if they were ages 21 and 22. He is going to make the Majors. How long he sticks is another matter. He is 62 days YOUNGER than Niko and 2 levels further along.

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Wilymer Abreu: Also struggled for his first 4 years. Unlike Valdez, he is a plus defender in the OF and has plus speed. He started to hit for power in 2021 but sold out to the K. This year, his BB% has spiked dramatically, which is interesting. He's also been relatively old for each step in the minors, though he's been mostly age appropriate this year. This is especially true if he earns a promotion to AAA.
Stateside
Year 1: 11.1% BB%, 20.0% K%, .089 ISO
Year 2: 8.8% BB%, 20.9% K%, .110 ISO
Year 3: 11.5% BB%, 29.9% K%, .227 ISO
Year 4: 19.0% BB%, 26.3% K%, .210 ISO.

He's also become a better base stealer. He is 23 for 24 this year. Prior to this year, he was 31 for 58. I guess it's possible it's luck but that's pretty drastic. I worry about how he will hold up at the next level or the Majors because he has become a three outcomes player. I also worry that the huge spike in walks this year will be Ks at the MLB level. I had this same concern about Bobby Dalbec. The fear is they are just looking at pitches and when the quality of pitcher goes up, they are looking at strikes instead of balls. If he can cut down on the Ks while still hitting for power, he's interesting. I'm not sure he can. He's probably more likely than not to get a cup of Coffee in the Majors, though not as much a certainty as Valdez. Making the Majors could be 1 PA.

Other 2 will be in a separate post coming up. Don't want a super long post and it's also a separate trade.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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Corey Rosier: Had a solid debut last year in minimal time. Projects to be a decent CF but has been blocked by another player at the same position.

In his A ball debut, he slashed .390/.461/.585 in 141 PA with 14xbh/3HRs, 13/16 in sb, 18bb/20k. 12.8% BB%/14.2% K%.

This year has been more of the same, minus the power.

2022: .263/.381/.396 in 373 PA. 21 xbh/6HRs, 33/37 in sb, 54bb/68k. 14.5% BB%, 18.2% K %.

He's interesting. He's a bit old for the league he's in but could earn a promotion to AA. He puts the bat on the ball and given his speed, that's a good thing. He can also draw a walk. We'll know more as he moves up a level. I think he's my 2nd favorite prospect acquired.

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Max Ferguson: Another speedy player with a defensive profile. Ferguson has had an odd career and I'm not sure what to make of him. He walks, a lot. He strikes out. He's like Two Outcomes? This year, he's been slightly better making contact and is hitting for a little more power... which would be hard not to do. He's probably my least favorite of the guys acquired.

2021: .212/.382/.297 in 152 PA, 15/16 sb, 8 xbh, 31bb/42k. 20.4% BB% 27.6% K%.
2022: .221/.365/.358 in 432 PA. 55/60 sb, 27xbh/6 HR, 75bb/101k. 17.4% BB%, 23.3% K%.

He's going to have to hit for a better average to take advantage of his base running ability. I also doubt he's going to maintain those walk rates. In some ways, he reminds me of Brainer Bonaci.

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I can see what Bloom was doing selecting these 4 players. Chances are none will amount to much but you can see where they would add value if they work out. They all walk at a decent clip, too.
 

LogansDad

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Nov 15, 2006
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Great posts @Cesar Crespo , I have a lot of the same thoughts as you. I wouldn't call any of them "exciting" prospects, but it feels like Bloom was targeting a specific type of player (high BB rate, though not necessarily OBP, with speed), which is interesting because I feel like that is the type of player that there is a big lack of in the organization. I think we will know a lot more about Ferguson and Rosier next year when they likely get the callup to AA, which, in my opinion, is where the real prospects get separated from the MiLB filler.