Pretty sure the expanded playoffs proposal was just making the 2020 format permanent.Do we know what the expanded playoffs offered was? I'm pro-DH, but I'd reraise the mound to avoid a repeat of this year's playoff format.
Pretty sure the expanded playoffs proposal was just making the 2020 format permanent.Do we know what the expanded playoffs offered was? I'm pro-DH, but I'd reraise the mound to avoid a repeat of this year's playoff format.
I love these kinds of quotes. So, you’re saying if you could get Bauer to sign here on a 1 yr/$15M deal, and Ozuna for 3 yrs/$30M, and you could trade Beni and change for Luis Castillo, you could exceed the LT? Great! Good to know.
It really may have been as simple as the FO deciding that, if the market really cratered, as it looked like it might when Brad Hand was released, they would be opportunistic and collect a bunch of great values on players via FA and trade that would help us in years to come, wherever the payroll landed. And that would have been smart!I love these kinds of quotes. So, you’re saying if you could get Bauer to sign here on a 1 yr/$15M deal, and Ozuna for 3 yrs/$30M, and you could trade Beni and change for Luis Castillo, you could exceed the LT? Great! Good to know.
Nothing about this offseason suggests that we’re going over the threshold. And given where we’re at and MLB is at, we shouldn’t.
Yeah, I agree. To be less glib about it, I realize there are still scenarios where the team would be willing to go over the LT limit, either now or mid-season if we’re competing and need a key piece. I think that’s what Bloom means when he says there's no firm ceiling or mandate. But he HAS taken a distinctly different approach than DD did, looking for shorter terms and financial flexibility in every move he’s made. They clearly are putting a high value on having financial (and roster) options, which makes sense given the uncertainties of this season and of the upcoming CBS negotiations.It really may have been as simple as the FO deciding that, if the market really cratered, as it looked like it might when Brad Hand was released, they would be opportunistic and collect a bunch of great values on players via FA and trade that would help us in years to come, wherever the payroll landed. And that would have been smart!
But that's not really how the market shook out: Hand ended up signing with the Nationals for a bit more than they would have paid him if they'd claimed him off waivers.
So as it is, it's likely better to be under so we can go over for a year or two here or there without trashing our draft order.
I imagine part of his approach is dictated by the aftermath of Dombrowski's approach. If he can get through the next year or two without making too many long commitments, it will give him maximum flexibility once the prospects he's collecting (via draft and trade) start to come to fruition. It's not really that far off from what Ben Cherington did. He was greatly aided by the Punto deal to clear the financial decks, but he was bridging with short term veteran deals that weren't flashy to get to the next generation of prospects with the financial flexibility to surround them with talent. That ultimately resulted in the 2018 championship. Bloom might not get as lucky as Cherington did with the 2013 team but hopefully he also doesn't experience the flip side of that experience, the 2014-2015 shitshows.Yeah, I agree. To be less glib about it, I realize there are still scenarios where the team would be willing to go over the LT limit, either now or mid-season if we’re competing and need a key piece. I think that’s what Bloom means when he says there's no firm ceiling or mandate. But he HAS taken a distinctly different approach than DD did, looking for shorter terms and financial flexibility in every move he’s made. They clearly are putting a high value on having financial (and roster) options, which makes sense given the uncertainties of this season and of the upcoming CBS negotiations.
I agree with this, in that there approach going into the offseason was governed by the likelihood that they would not have a championship caliber team in '21 given the number of question marks on the roster (Eduardo, Sale, JD, Beni, Dalbec, 2B, CF, etc), and that they would therefore only exceed the CBT/$210m if the market somehow collapsed, at least for certain players, and they were able to grab players at a discount that might significantly improve their competitiveness in '21 and the future, without constraining their future flexibility.It really may have been as simple as the FO deciding that, if the market really cratered, as it looked like it might when Brad Hand was released, they would be opportunistic and collect a bunch of great values on players via FA and trade that would help us in years to come, wherever the payroll landed. And that would have been smart!
But that's not really how the market shook out: Hand ended up signing with the Nationals for a bit more than they would have paid him if they'd claimed him off waivers.
So as it is, it's likely better to be under so we can go over for a year or two here or there without trashing our draft order.
Sources: Red Sox have had some talks with Mitch Moreland about a reunion. He'd fit well with Dalbec at 1B. Other options in the mix there.
Perfect fit. Get it done.
Same.Do we know what the expanded playoffs offered was? I'm pro-DH, but I'd reraise the mound to avoid a repeat of this year's playoff format.
Gross.Pretty sure the expanded playoffs proposal was just making the 2020 format permanent.
The only issue with this plan is the current set of prospects are not nearly at the stratospheric level of the prospects coming up under Cherington.I imagine part of his approach is dictated by the aftermath of Dombrowski's approach. If he can get through the next year or two without making too many long commitments, it will give him maximum flexibility once the prospects he's collecting (via draft and trade) start to come to fruition. It's not really that far off from what Ben Cherington did. He was greatly aided by the Punto deal to clear the financial decks, but he was bridging with short term veteran deals that weren't flashy to get to the next generation of prospects with the financial flexibility to surround them with talent. That ultimately resulted in the 2018 championship. Bloom might not get as lucky as Cherington did with the 2013 team but hopefully he also doesn't experience the flip side of that experience, the 2014-2015 shitshows.
I love Mitch but I don't see the point of pushing Dalbec to a short-side platoon. If Dalbec's on the team then we should see what he can do. Bringing in a guy like Marwin or Brad Miller or even Daniel Murphy who can also cover 2B makes sense. If Bloom sees a good trade for Dalbec and brings in Mitch as a bridge to Casas, that works too.
It wasn't until early 2014 that the farm started being ranked by the prospect press as a (or even the) top system in baseball, but BA already had them ranked 9 in 2012 ("The most impressive Red Sox prospects are position players who haven't yet proven themselves at higher levels: 3B Will Middlebrooks, SS Xander Bogaerts and C Blake Swihart."), up from 17 on the basis of the strong 2011 draft.In 2012-2013, nobody would have described the ascension of the Red Sox farm system as "stratospheric" or anything like that. I remember when people thought it would be a decade before contention was realistic. Assuming Sale comes back restored, Devers keeps on his upward trajectory and Xander sticks around, the core of the team is still of high quality. I'm not impressed with this offseason, but I still have faith in Bloom at the end of the day.
Verdugo and Devers aren't far from being prospects and probably have higher floors than any of the cherington prospects had coming up. This team has plenty of top end talent, it just also has a lot of question marks, mostly in the rotation.
This is where I am. It's too soon to declare Dalbec a platoon guy. It's not as though the single-digit number of wins Moreland might add to next season are going to make them a playoff team.I love Mitch but I don't see the point of pushing Dalbec to a short-side platoon. If Dalbec's on the team then we should see what he can do.
Key word there is "potential." My glass-half-empty worry is that every single pitcher who could plausibly be in their rotation either (a) faces significant injury concerns or (b) is an upside play with mixed results in the past. If the Sox have above-average luck and the top part of their rotation stays healthy and the bottom half has a couple guys that overperform prior years - sure, they could be decent to even good. But if you just assume even average luck (e.g. one of Sale/EdRo/Eo gets hurt again, and their collection of 4/5 guys all pitch like 4/5 guys), we are still looking at frankly a very bad rotation, albeit with more talent than last year's.I'm not a huge fan of this current pitching staff, but I think it has the potential to be MUCH better than last year's edition. Consequently, I think that there's a really good chance this team is significantly better than last year. Playoff-bound? Maybe, but not likely. Still...I am hopeful that they're much improved with a good haul of guys with real potential making their way through the system.
If they bring back Mitchy, then I don't think it would be with the idea that he would be the strong side of the platoon. I think it would be as insurance in case Dalbec simply craters and becomes a black hole in the lineup. The plan would probably to have him play once or twice a week, with some occasional pinch-hitting. They would probably give Dalbec every chance to win and hold the job, but I'm sure they'd like to have a Plan B (or at least a different one than the current one, which is probably Chavis).This is where I am. It's too soon to declare Dalbec a platoon guy. It's not as though the single-digit number of wins Moreland might add to next season are going to make them a playoff team.
Agree with all this, but I think Richards' signing heralds a 6-man rotation in the second half -- if everything breaks right and everyone's healthy. Definitely a chance Pivetta flames out, but he's got no options left and there's enough of a track record to give him a chance to figure it out.Oh yeah, for sure they could be bad this year. But it would take almost NOTHING for them to be better than last year. #28 in MLB in ERA (5.58, just 0.05 away from dead last). #30 in MLB in WHIP (1.60...dead last).
I mean, last year, their #1 was Martin Perez - a guy we all agree is a decent number *5*. Their #3, 4, and 5 starters were Zach Godley (8.16 era, 1.95 whip), Chris Mazza (4.80 era, 1.63 whip), and Ryan Weber (4.40 era, 1.35 whip).
Second half of 2021, their rotation should be Chris Sale, Eduardo Rodriguez, Nathan Eovaldi, Garrett Richards, and Martin Perez. That's WORLDS better than what they had last year.
But you could also see the other side...Key word there is "potential." My glass-half-empty worry is that every single pitcher who could plausibly be in their rotation either (a) faces significant injury concerns or (b) is an upside play with mixed results in the past. If the Sox have above-average luck and the top part of their rotation stays healthy and the bottom half has a couple guys that overperform prior years - sure, they could be decent to even good. But if you just assume even average luck (e.g. one of Sale/EdRo/Eo gets hurt again, and their collection of 4/5 guys all pitch like 4/5 guys), we are still looking at frankly a very bad rotation, albeit with more talent than last year's.
None of which is really a criticism of Bloom - the rotation was so bad last year that is not the kind of thing you turn around in a single offseason.
Sure - I certainly agree with Bloom's overall approach of amassing a bunch of guys where, if you squint, you can see how they might outperform their career numbers. The obvious hope is that they hit on one or two of those guys, and the rest are entirely disposable as they are on short-term contracts.But you could also see the other side...
Sale, Rodriguez and Eovaldi all come back healthy and rested, pitching to career norms.
Pivetta and Richards stay healthy and show why their raw stuff is so respected by the statcast systems (when if their results aren't). They pitch like legitimate 3s. Suddenly, our staff at the end of the year looks like:
1.5, 2,2,3,3 instead of 4,4,5,5,tbd like last year.
More importantly, all these guys who could be starters on a bad team are now riding the shuttle or pitching out of the bullpen, where their stuff plays up and Cora can really manipulate matchups and limit innings for the starters.
It's a super glass half full image, but it doesn't seem insane.
As an aside, Pivetta and Richards both have breaking stuff that might play better with a good framer like Vasquez...
If this is the approach (which I suspect it is), then bringing back Moreland makes no sense. If you are willing to lose some games while figuring out whether any of these pitchers have value, you would logically take the same approach to Dalbec.Sure - I certainly agree with Bloom's overall approach of amassing a bunch of guys where, if you squint, you can see how they might outperform their career numbers. The obvious hope is that they hit on one or two of those guys, and the rest are entirely disposable as they are on short-term contracts.
They don't need to outperform anything, if the staff pitches to career averages and sale comes back healthy midseason this team has a great shot at making the playoffs, which is why fangraphs currently has them as the 2nd wild card in its projections.Sure - I certainly agree with Bloom's overall approach of amassing a bunch of guys where, if you squint, you can see how they might outperform their career numbers. The obvious hope is that they hit on one or two of those guys, and the rest are entirely disposable as they are on short-term contracts.
Your point is certainly valid.If this is the approach (which I suspect it is), then bringing back Moreland makes no sense. If you are willing to lose some games while figuring out whether any of these pitchers have value, you would logically take the same approach to Dalbec.
And if Eovaldi and Rodriguez both stay healthy as well. That's kind of my point - if their top-3 stay healthy and effective all year, yeah, they'll probably have an average or so rotation. But if even one of those guys misses significant time the rotation immediately becomes a lot worse assuming none of their remaining pitchers overperforms. And maybe I am just unduly pessimistic but given all three of them have significant injury histories (well, in EdRo's case it's less about past injuries and more just uncertainty about recovering from his heart condition), I would not at all be surprised if at least one of them misses significant time (above and beyond the time Sale is already projected to miss).They don't need to outperform anything, if the staff pitches to career averages and sale comes back healthy midseason this team has a great shot at making the playoffs, which is why fangraphs currently has them as the 2nd wild card in its projections.
If they all stay healthy I think you're vastly discounting the rotation by calling it average or so. Just by pitching to projections Sale is a clear ace, Erod is a borderline 1/2, Eovaldi is a 2/3, Richards is a 3/4 and Perez is probably a 4, and that's without even giving them anything from any of houck pivetta seabold etcAnd if Eovaldi and Rodriguez both stay healthy as well. That's kind of my point - if their top-3 stay healthy and effective all year, yeah, they'll probably have an average or so rotation. But if even one of those guys misses significant time the rotation immediately becomes a lot worse assuming none of their remaining pitchers overperforms. And maybe I am just unduly pessimistic but given all three of them have significant injury histories (well, in EdRo's case it's less about past injuries and more just uncertainty about recovering from his heart condition), I would not at all be surprised if at least one of them misses significant time (above and beyond the time Sale is already projected to miss).
Well, take them for what they're worth, but FanGraph's current "depth chart" projections give the Boston pitching staff (bullpen included) an ERA of 4.49 for the year (4.57 for just the projected starters). If the Sox had pitched to that level last year, that would have put them in 16th place - almost exactly average. (And in 2019 that would be good enough for 17th place, in 2018 only good enough for 21st, in 2017 15th, etc.)If they all stay healthy I think you're vastly discounting the rotation by calling it average or so. Just by pitching to projections Sale is a clear ace, Erod is a borderline 1/2, Eovaldi is a 2/3, Richards is a 3/4 and Perez is probably a 4, and that's without even giving them anything from any of houck pivetta seabold etc
Because they pitch both in the AL and play half their games in a ballpark with a high park factor in favor of offense.Well, take them for what they're worth, but FanGraph's current "depth chart" projections give the Boston pitching staff (bullpen included) an ERA of 4.49 for the year (4.57 for just the projected starters). If the Sox had pitched to that level last year, that would have put them in 16th place - almost exactly average. (And in 2019 that would be good enough for 17th place, in 2018 only good enough for 21st, in 2017 15th, etc.)
To be clear, an "average" rotation this year would not only be a massive improvement on last year but would also likely be enough to at least put them in playoff contention given the anticipated strength of the offense.
I think Hernandez agreed with the Sox based on an understanding that a) he would not bounce around as much position-wise and b) that he will be the primary second baseman, NOT CF. As of the moment, it's Verdugo in center and Hernandez at 2B. Verdugo would be the bridge to Durran.I can't seem to find the link now but earlier this morning when I didn't have time to post, I saw the headline "Mets showing most interest but Sox could be back in on JBJ".... Just googled it now on my phone but nothing.... and not sure, with Boras as his agent- and where the Sox are at tax threshold that I see it happening. I think Bloom liked what he saw enough in Kiké to go with him as the starting CF'er next year in hopes for him as bridge to Duran (or Gilberto)
So we need a RF then.I think Hernandez agreed with the Sox based on an understanding that a) he would not bounce around as much position-wise and b) that he will be the primary second baseman, NOT CF. As of the moment, it's Verdugo in center and Hernandez at 2B. Verdugo would be the bridge to Durran.
Renfroe can play RF. So can Benintendi. They also can both play LF. They are probably thinking that they are covered with JD Martinez playing some games in LF and Kike playing the outfield in a pinch.So we need a RF then.
Renfroe hits .228 against RH. If that’s the plan it’s a rough one.Renfroe can play RF. So can Benintendi. They also can both play LF. They are probably thinking that they are covered with JD Martinez playing some games in LF and Kike playing the outfield in a pinch.
Not sure why you picked Renfroe's stats against RHP. He is a RHH. He would play against LHP where he bats .258. Not great admittedly but he's a power threat. He is a capable defender with a cannon for an arm. JD would play more LF which he has always said he preferred. They didn't sign Renfroe to not play him. He is obviously in their plans.Renfroe hits .228 against RH. If that’s the plan it’s a rough one.
Brad Miller?Here are the current stock of outfielders, DH candidates, and 2Bmen, considered very inclusively, including their career platoon splits. I'm assuming Devers and Bogaerts play everyday, and the catchers are allocated following another logic.
(To be clear, I don't actually think all of these players would likely be rostered together. I doubt either Muñoz or Chavis break camp in Boston.)
DH OF J.D. Martínez .852 v. RHP; .978 OPS v. LHP
OF Alex Verdugo .810 OPS v. RHP; .788 OPS v. LHP
OF Hunter Renfroe .717 OPS v. RHP; .912 v. LHP
OF Andrew Benintendi .821 OPS v. RHP; .691 OPS v. LHP
IF Christian Arroyo .678 v. RHP; .597 v. LHP (sss, and see below)
IF OF Kiké Hernandez .673 v. RHP; .820 v. LHP
IF OF Yairo Muñoz .716 v. RHP; .780 v. LHP (sss)
IF OF Michael Chavis .740 v. RHP; .699 v. LHP (sss)
IF DH Bobby Dalbec .903 v. RHP; 1.062 v. LHP (sss)
I tried to fit this puzzle together, but it really seems to me like we need another player.
Against LHP, we have a good OF setup: Benintendi Verdugo Renfroe, with JDM at DH and Hernandez at 2B. Benintendi has a rough split v. LHH, but it's been pretty noisy year to year, as is often the case with that split. He had a mild reverse split in 2019.
Against RHP, we would like to sit Renfroe, because .717 isn't great. But it's hard to do that without producing downstream effects in the lineup. We can play JDM in the OF (which I hate, but whatever), but if we do that we need another DH; if that DH is a starter at another position, then that creates another hole.
It is worth noting that in a tiiiiiiiny 2020 sample, Christian Arroyo had an even more pronounced reverse split than his career line: an .888 OPS against RHP (35 PA). He had a reverse split during a number of his minor league seasons, too. So we could play Arroyo at 3B (with Devers DHing) or at DH against RHP, or at 2B, with Hernandez in the OF, even though we reportedly told him he'd be the starter at 2B. (I don't see any indication that Arroyo has ever played the OF at any level.) Hernandez adds so much with his glove, either at 2B or in the OF, that I can certainly see preferring him to Renfroe vs. RHH. Meanwhile, is a terrible defender at multiple positions, and hasn't hit RHP so much better than Renfroe. I don't see any scenario in which he's on the roster short of injuries.
But all of this would make a lot more sense if we had a four corner type player with some thump vs. RHP. Such a player could serve as a Renfroe platoon partner, but also serve as Dalbec/Martinez insurance. Maaaaaaybe that's Arroyo.
Brad Miller and Danny Santana make the most sense at this point. Miller was good enough last year that he’s probably holding out for a starting job. Marwin works too, but he’ll likely face a lot of media scrutiny. There’s evidence that he benefited most from the sign stealing scandal.Brad Miller?
You say "did not do" like Bloom's done. There are still a number of free agent starting pitchers available. It's possible (though I admit it's not necessarily a high probability) Bloom is waiting out the market on one of those guys. The closer we get to spring training, the more likely someone will accept a cap-friendly contract just to get a job.I am still a little surprised that Bloom did not do more with regards to the pitching staff. The offense was already good, and I honestly think they should be one of the top offenses this year, and the offensive pieces added so far make sense and should help further the offensive production. Was really hoping to add Semien, but not at $18M. Kiké I think is a great add. Given more playing time, I think he will be a 20+ HR guy and provides loads of versatility.
Pitching though - I was really hoping to add one of the better SP options available in the offseason. I like the Ottavino add a lot. I am not saying that the adds of Pivetta, Perez etc. have no value, but with Sale not back until June and EROD coming off a missed season, there is a lot of uncertainty.
That being said, they would be hard pressed to be worse than 2020 so ...
Doesn't it feel like we're done though, absent a trade? After the AO trade, we're $10 million from the luxury tax, and it doesn't make sense to go over now when 2021 isn't a likely playoff year. That's also the squeeze on JBJ returning -- again absent a trade and subtraction of an existing salary.You say "did not do" like Bloom's done. There are still a number of free agent starting pitchers available. It's possible (though I admit it's not necessarily a high probability) Bloom is waiting out the market on one of those guys. The closer we get to spring training, the more likely someone will accept a cap-friendly contract just to get a job.
Pass, please. I know it doesn’t necessarily work this way, but Philadelphia probably would have made the (expanded) playoffs last year if not for him. He blew four leads and they finished three games behind Miami.
Perhaps he is fixable? If he's willing to sign a low dollar contract with bonuses if he remains on the roster/gets innings, it could be a decent shotPass, please. I know it doesn’t necessarily work this way, but Philadelphia probably would have made the (expanded) playoffs last year if not for him. He blew four leads and they finished three games behind Miami.