Michigan Basketball 2014-2015: Caris Us To The Promised Land

[sachmoney]

Surprised that there hasn't been a thread started, so I'm jinxing this season by starting it.
 
Michigan up 41-17 on Bucknell with 4+ to play. This team may not be as good offensively and might miss the leadership of Morgan, but I'm loving what I am seeing thus far. Yes, I know it's Bucknell, but Bucknell isn't a total tomato can.

 

[Dgilpin]

I was just about to start one tonight, offensively I feel like Levert , Irvin , Walton and Chatman will give them all the scoring they need. I expect Irvins role to really expand, and wouldn't be surprised if he became a a lesser version of Stauskas. The big question will be can Mark Donnal, Max Beilfeldt and Ricky Doyle give them enough defensively and on boards . They are very thin on the the front line and will really need 2 of those guys to step up especially by the time they hit conference play.

 

[sachmoney]

I was just about to start one tonight, offensively I feel like Levert , Irvin , Walton and Chatman will give them all the scoring they need. I expect Irvins role to really expand, and wouldn't be surprised if he became a a lesser version of Stauskas. The big question will be can Mark Donnal, Max Beilfeldt and Ricky Doyle give them enough defensively and on boards . They are very thin on the the front line and will really need 2 of those guys to step up especially by the time they hit conference play.

I think the youth is more concerning to me than the interior, to be honest. I liked what I saw from Chatman, Donnal, Bielfeldt, and Doyle from a rebounding perspective. I thought Chatman especially showed a willingness to box out which I hope rubs off on the rest of the team. The thing about youth is that they tend to get overeager and are prone to fouls.
 
I do think that having Levert as the focus of the team instead of Stauskas is big in terms of what will be empasized. Levert is a strong defender, and if Michigan can become 50-70 adjD team, then it would be great. The scoring is going to come from a lot of guys. Where are the stops and key rebounds coming from? That'll be the big question.

 

[Zososoxfan]

"UM's a bball school" has been my line lately when anyone asks me about the abomination that is UM Football. Sach, the problem is that the youth IS ON the interior. Walton, Irvin, LeVert, and Spike have the 1, 2, and 3 mostly covered. So, it's a bit redundant to say the youth and not the interior is your concern (unless I'm misunderstanding your comment). Also, I'm not familiar with the adjD stat - what does your comment about UM being a 50-70 adjD team really mean? Fewer possessions? More possessions? Dominate the defensive boards?

 

[sachmoney]

From my stand point, there are flaws associated with talent and ability and there are flaws associated with inexperience. I'm saying that I'm more concerned with the flaws associated with the inexperience more than the talent and ability inside. We might not be 100% there physically, but I liked the tenacity of the young guys. All of them showed a willingness to box out which allowed the smaller guys to pick up rebounds. I like that as a team rebounding strategy. I didn't see that the last couple of seasons, despite all of the success.
 
adjD is Kenpom's stat. It's points allowed per 100 possessions adjusted for opponent. Conversely, adjO is points scored per 100 possessions adjusted for opponent. Michigan has finished the last two seasons #1 in adjO. Michigan was 48th the runner up year and 109th last year. I expect Michigan to be amongst the top offenses in the country again, but I think that the team's success overall will have to come on the defensive side of the ball.

 

[sachmoney]

Last night was by no means pretty, but I was pretty happy with the performance. There were stretches where Michigan couldn't find their jumper and normally, this would be a cause for concern. Last night, it wasn't. 
 
Rather than sit around on the perimeter and launch threes, Michigan made a concerted effort to get to the rim. This effort paid off as Michigan took 29 free throws, hitting 23 of them. While there were stretches without field goals, Michigan was able to stay in front because they did work at the free throw line. This is the type of ugly game I wanted to see them come out of with a win. Oregon had one guy foul out and had three other guys with four fouls. They may have to win a game or two like this as the season progresses and it was important for them to prove to themselves that they can win this way. 
 
On the other side of the ball, I don't think you can really complain when you hold your opponent to under 40% from the field, but at the same time, the second chance opportunities. The announcing team kept referring to Oregon as "undersized" and while that may be true, Michigan plays very small or soft. I wasn't at all surprised by Oregon's success on the glass given the hungry nature of their game. It was just hustle and physicality and desire. Michigan really needs to figure out how to get it right on the defensive boards because teams like Sparty, Ohio State, Indiana, and Minnesota won't relent. Arizona won't relent. Oregon had 18 offensive rebounds and that's what kept them in the game. That's unacceptable. Holding the other team to a low FG percentage and limiting chances go hand in hand. The volume of opportunities made up for Oregon's poor shooting display.
 
Player of the game for me was Ricky Doyle. I, admittedly, am developing a man crush on the kid. He's ugly. His game is ugly. But he gives the team some physical energy that it really needs. I don't know if he will be the starting big man by the end of this year, but he was a very nice spark of the bench. It was much needed. He took charges, he got a couple key rebounds, and made shots. May be it was his kind of game, but he took full advantage of it.

 

[Chemistry Schmemistry]

We're sitting on a four-game losing streak now, three at home. The Beilein model depends on good shooting, and no one seems to be shooting well. LeVert isn't athletic enough to score big when teams focus on him. He's best as a second option on a team that can create a lot of scoring opportunities. Irvin's still improving. The big guys aren't playing big enough. This isn't a good team right now.

We've been spoiled by Beilein's incredible success identifying guys with potential, so much so that LeVert is seen as a potential lottery pick even though his production isn't there yet. We've lost five early entrants in the last two years - Burke (9th in 2013), Hardaway (24th in 2013), Stauskas (8th in 2014), McGary (21st in 2014), and Robinson (40th in 2014). Of those, only Hardaway was a junior.

This was always going to be a down year, but the Beilein model gave us false confidence. He's entitled to rebuild - the NBA-ready multi-tool players will favor Kansas, Kentucky and Duke. I'm preparing myself for a long season.

 

[Zososoxfan]

Agreed CS, I thought Beilein could make magic here, but that's just not the case this year. Coach B had made comments that he wasn't liking what he was seeing, and it wasn't just blowing smoke. I think UM could still be a good team, but it won't be until later in the season. The tourney seems like a longshot already, but a best case scenario could include a Big10 tournament run.

 

[sachmoney]

It's been a pretty forgettable season with the injuries to Caris and Walton and the recent string of losses, but the win over Ohio State was really sweet. 

 

[Zososoxfan]

OH HOW I HATE!

 

[sachmoney]

It's kind of amazing that Michigan has been in all of the games that they have. A lot of the time, it's been on the losing end, but there haven't been a lot of blow outs (or as many as you'd expect). This team isn't nearly as talented as the last two years's teams and it's weakened even more with the injuries to Caris and Walton. When you're losing like this, it's easy to get down on yourself and sulk through the season, but I am really proud of the resiliency and maintained effort and intensity. The players have really stepped up and Beilein and the coaching staff have done a great job of keeping them motivated to perform despite the odds being against them. 
 
Ohio State has a very talented team of four and five star recruits. They blew the doors off of us in Columbus. With an even weaker squad yesterday, we saw a very gutsy performance from Michigan. Really proud of the team.