MIA JBJ

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
10,558
Last 10 games: 43 PA, .324/.419/.783, .333 BAbip, 3bb/9k, 5 doubles. 4 HRs.
First 48 games: 145 PA, .144/.245/.176, .217 BAbip, 16bb/43, 4 doubles, 0 HRs.

102 less PA, 1 more double, 4 more HRs. This guy is so maddening at the plate.

OPS up to 58, up from 22 12 days ago. If he can get close to league average, the lineup is dangerously good.
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
13,526
Last 10 games: 43 PA, .324/.419/.783, .333 BAbip, 3bb/9k, 5 doubles. 4 HRs.
First 48 games: 145 PA, .144/.245/.176, .217 BAbip, 16bb/43, 4 doubles, 0 HRs.

102 less PA, 1 more double, 4 more HRs. This guy is so maddening at the plate.

OPS up to 58, up from 22 12 days ago. If he can get close to league average, the lineup is dangerously good.
Its deja vu all over again.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
10,558
You ask this question now?

His last 11 games he has an OPS of 1.142. Totally cherry picked. For 20 games it is still .869. I'll take that
It's a fair question to ask though. He basically said "I can see the ball now." How does he go through such long stretches where he doesn't?
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
13,526
It's a fair question to ask though. He basically said "I can see the ball now." How does he go through such long stretches where he doesn't?
I doubt he was being literal about his eyesight. Hitters often talk about streaks and slumps in terms of "seeing the ball."
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
2,475
I doubt he was being literal about his eyesight. Hitters often talk about streaks and slumps in terms of "seeing the ball."
Not so sure..... there's been a few players (old chum Shea Hillenbrand, that ass) that had actual problems with their eyesight but didn't do anything about it.
 

Adrian's Dome

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 6, 2010
4,424
Not so sure..... there's been a few players (old chum Shea Hillenbrand, that ass) that had actual problems with their eyesight but didn't do anything about it.
And Will Middlebrooks.

But there's absolutely no evidence that's the issue with JBJ. He's just notoriously streaky, we've got a pretty good sample size showing us so, and I'd bet hard his comment on "seeing" the ball had nothing to do with actual vision.
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
16,740
Rogers Park
You ask this question now?

His last 11 games he has an OPS of 1.142. Totally cherry picked. For 20 games it is still .869. I'll take that
It's always like this with him.

If you look through his 2018 game log, he was godawful until mid-May, kind of like this year. Cora benched him for a few days, and he did some work on his mechanics, and then he came back and posted an .782 OPS for the rest of the season, with the normal ups and downs a hitter of that talent goes through: a week of .900 OPS, a week of .620. This wasn't hard to see in the numbers: his quick-stabilizing numbers like contact, etc., were completely different. Whatever had changed, it wasn't just luck: he was doing something differently than he had been in the first six weeks.

This is basically the main thing I wrote on this board last season.

But because his awful first six weeks had put his season numbers in a deep hole, people here continually suggested his trade and benching deep into the season, basically every time he went 0 for 3. It didn't matter if he was playing like one of top 20 position players in the AL (literally: I've been playing around with the new Fangraphs date picker: post-May 17, he was the 19th best position player in the AL, between Mitch Haniger and Matt Olson). People wanted him gone.

Think about how well you have to play after May 17 to accrue 2.8 fWAR in a season if you have accrued mildly negative WAR for the first six weeks.

Back to 2019: there are no guarantees that he'll keep this up, but I, anyway, want to see where this chart is headed.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
10,558
Think about how well you have to play after May 17 to accrue 2.8 fWAR in a season if you have accrued mildly negative WAR for the first six weeks.

Back to 2019: there are no guarantees that he'll keep this up, but I, anyway, want to see where this chart is headed.
Streaky hitters are supposed to be more valuable than consistent hitters. If that's the case, most metrics are probably severely underestimating his total value.
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
16,740
Rogers Park
Since the game in Houston where Bradley claimed he figured out his new swing mechanics, he has 94 PA:
  • .280/.372/.598 for a .970 OPS, on only a .315 BABIP.
  • In that period, he has a manageable 23% K rate.
  • 14 of his 23 hits have gone for extra bases.
Keep it up!
 

reggiecleveland

sublime
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Mar 5, 2004
20,817
Saskatoon Canada
Since the game in Houston where Bradley claimed he figured out his new swing mechanics, he has 94 PA:
  • .280/.372/.598 for a .970 OPS, on only a .315 BABIP.
  • In that period, he has a manageable 23% K rate.
  • 14 of his 23 hits have gone for extra bases.
Keep it up!
I am happy it is going well, but JBJ has figured it out is like a February "best shape of his life" story. It seemed he figured it out in the 2nd half last year, he credited JD, etc.
 

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
9,881
Miami (oh, Miami!)
I am happy it is going well, but JBJ has figured it out is like a February "best shape of his life" story. It seemed he figured it out in the 2nd half last year, he credited JD, etc.
It does seem that his success in the past 100 PAs is more likely due to him actually figuring something out, rather than just the usual ups and downs of the average baseball batter. As to whether he "remembers it," through the next 100 PAs, well, that's another matter. Looking at his batting woes as though they're a simple matter of just returning to the one batting stance/form that works, sort of invites the black box argument - why not make the whole plane out of the black box stuff?

On the whole it's even more frustrating due to his defensive athleticism and discipline. He can make split second tracks on a batted ball, gauge his stride accordingly, and leap and jump. So why not the ability to consistently approach an AB?
 

reggiecleveland

sublime
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Mar 5, 2004
20,817
Saskatoon Canada
It does seem that his success in the past 100 PAs is more likely due to him actually figuring something out, rather than just the usual ups and downs of the average baseball batter. As to whether he "remembers it," through the next 100 PAs, well, that's another matter. Looking at his batting woes as though they're a simple matter of just returning to the one batting stance/form that works, sort of invites the black box argument - why not make the whole plane out of the black box stuff?

On the whole it's even more frustrating due to his defensive athleticism and discipline. He can make split second tracks on a batted ball, gauge his stride accordingly, and leap and jump. So why not the ability to consistently approach an AB?
Judging a ball and a hit pitch are quite different. Fisrt of all judging the ball, despite how quickly JBJ does it , is a slower process, also the distance from the ball, angle, etc, different too. I imagine with my old eyes I would use different lenses in my glasses to play Of than hit.

I am perhaps unfairly frustrated by his hitting in relation to his athleticism too, since he is so incredible e in the filed, if was an above average hitter he would be one of the most valuable guys i the game.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
38,193
I am happy it is going well, but JBJ has figured it out is like a February "best shape of his life" story. It seemed he figured it out in the 2nd half last year, he credited JD, etc.
He absolutely did, but this was the first offseason he could spend actually working on it, and I'm sure that's a bit different. There's likely some things he and JD talked about last year that couldn't really be adjusted in-season and perhaps that's what he's figured out.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
10,558
His good and bad stretches are so long. He has to be incredibly stubborn about adjusting his swing or something.

If he ever put it all together for one season, he'd might win an MVP award.
If he ever struggled for an entire season, it would be one of worst seasons in the history of MLB.

It's weird because he is "consistent." He's not "streaky." He's good or bad for half seasons at a time.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
10,558
Just for reference:
First 145 PA: .144/.245/.175, .217 BAbip, 4 doubles, 0 HR, 16bb/43k, 11.0% BB rate, 29.7% K rate
Last 87: .307/.402/.653, .362 BAbip, 8 doubles, 6 HRs, 8bb/22k, 9.2% BB rate, 25.3% K rate

If his "cold" half this year is only 145 PA, he's going to have a great year. He usually doesn't go on 2 "cold streaks" in a year. Just one very long one.
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
16,740
Rogers Park


SoxScout posted this on twitter. It suggests that JBJ, in this three week tear, has managed to get the ball in the air to the opposite field more, instead of just pounding a million sharp ground balls into the shift.
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
16,740
Rogers Park
(I don't know how to post tweets on the new board... SoxScout is @redsoxstats on twitter and is worth your attention.)
 

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
9,881
Miami (oh, Miami!)
Judging a ball and a hit pitch are quite different.
I wasn't trying to suggest they were the same. JBJ has managed to bring a degree of consistent excellence to his fielding that most people find astonishing. At peak hitting prowess, he's a club-carrying offensive monster - he's got the ability. It's just weird that he can't seem to find some kind of competent, journeyman-like baseline for his hitting skills.
 

bob burda

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
995
His good and bad stretches are so long. He has to be incredibly stubborn about adjusting his swing or something.

If he ever put it all together for one season, he'd might win an MVP award.
If he ever struggled for an entire season, it would be one of worst seasons in the history of MLB.

It's weird because he is "consistent." He's not "streaky." He's good or bad for half seasons at a time.
About the bold, this already happened - in 2014. In 384 ABs he put up a slash line of .265/.266./.531, with a .184 batting average, earning him a 49 OPS+. If I recall correctly, it was the impetus for a thread on SoSH about the worst full seasons ever, and this was one of them.

Granted, he was a different player back then, before the adjustments he made the following year which put him on the path to where he's been since - but yeah,
2014 is just how bad it would be for an entire season.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
2,475
It's crazy how quickly JBJ's OPS has climbed back up (for the past month, he's been the 3rd most productive AL offensive player behind Trout and Xander!). Getting closer to .700 for the season. It's often been said that if he can average just a .700 OPS and figure his defensive prowess into his overall game, he's a great player. Obviously having his defense coupled with his 1.000+ OPS over the last month for an entire season would almost guarantee him an MVP (in a Trout-Free world)
 

nattysez

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 30, 2010
3,922
Another dinger.

Looking at his month-to-month splits, he was horrific in April (.406 OPS), good in May (.843), and has been very good in June (.873). He was OPS'ng .960 over the last 28 days before tonight.
 

CaptainLaddie

dj paul pfieffer
SoSH Member
Sep 6, 2004
27,290
the district
So at this point we're due for a month of .450 OPS, no? (Kidding.)

He's probably the streakiest Sox player since Trot Nixon, except he's got elite defensive skills that Trot never had to partly make up for his bat. I want him on this team for the long haul, and hopefully he can eventually figure how to avoid these absolutely dogshit months and just be a below average hitter sometimes.
 

azsoxpatsfan

Member
SoSH Member
May 23, 2014
598
So at this point we're due for a month of .450 OPS, no? (Kidding.)

He's probably the streakiest Sox player since Trot Nixon, except he's got elite defensive skills that Trot never had to partly make up for his bat. I want him on this team for the long haul, and hopefully he can eventually figure how to avoid these absolutely dogshit months and just be a below average hitter sometimes.
I’m too young to fully remember Nixon but I’ve never seen a player like jbj. When he’s on I’m so confident in him every time he cones to the plate and when he’s off I’d feel better with almost anyone else batting. DOB mentioned that since May 5 (I think) he’s top five in the AL in extra base hits. That’s just a ridiculous turnaround from where he was
 

sean1562

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 17, 2011
2,722
do we really want this guy through his early to mid 30s? im grateful for the player he has been on this team but he seems like the exact opposite of what you want to lock up long term. even with his hot streak his OPS is still only .713. Thank him for his time here, but I am hoping Duran breaks out and we can move on from the JBJ era after next season
 

lurker42

lurker
Jul 15, 2005
143
I’m too young to fully remember Nixon but I’ve never seen a player like jbj. When he’s on I’m so confident in him every time he cones to the plate and when he’s off I’d feel better with almost anyone else batting. DOB mentioned that since May 5 (I think) he’s top five in the AL in extra base hits. That’s just a ridiculous turnaround from where he was
I remember Nixon well, and by my recollection his issue wasn't so much streakiness as health and a huge platoon split. He couldn't hit lefties *at all*, but Jimy felt the need to try to turn him into an everyday player. Trot's far-and-away best year was 2003, the only year he was both healthy and protected from tough lefties (in favor of Kapler). Pre-2003 he wasn't platooned (much), and post-2003 he was never really healthy.

The player from that era that I remember as being really streaky was Brian Daubach. But I haven't verified that; I'm just trusting my alcohol-addled memory.

I do not recall anyone, in 30+ years of watching baseball, whose hitting went as extremely hot and cold as JBJ's does.
 

CaptainLaddie

dj paul pfieffer
SoSH Member
Sep 6, 2004
27,290
the district
do we really want this guy through his early to mid 30s? im grateful for the player he has been on this team but he seems like the exact opposite of what you want to lock up long term. even with his hot streak his OPS is still only .713. Thank him for his time here, but I am hoping Duran breaks out and we can move on from the JBJ era after next season
So long as he can OPS .700 for a season and maintain his defensive skills, he's worth locking up. He's the best defensive outfielder the Red Sox have had in my life (though B-R says Mookie's been better in terms of Defensive WAR, but the eye test certainly contradicts this).
 

CaptainLaddie

dj paul pfieffer
SoSH Member
Sep 6, 2004
27,290
the district
I remember Nixon well, and by my recollection his issue wasn't so much streakiness as health and a huge platoon split. He couldn't hit lefties *at all*, but Jimy felt the need to try to turn him into an everyday player. Trot's far-and-away best year was 2003, the only year he was both healthy and protected from tough lefties (in favor of Kapler). Pre-2003 he wasn't platooned (much), and post-2003 he was never really healthy.

The player from that era that I remember as being really streaky was Brian Daubach. But I haven't verified that; I'm just trusting my alcohol-addled memory.

I do not recall anyone, in 30+ years of watching baseball, whose hitting went as extremely hot and cold as JBJ's does.
That's fair. Trot just could not hit lefties (.872 career OPS vs righties and .630 career OPS vs lefties), but his cold streaks (as far as I can remember) were so, so cold. Happy to be corrected on this!
 

Soxfan in Fla

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 30, 2001
7,128
His good and bad stretches are so long. He has to be incredibly stubborn about adjusting his swing or something.

If he ever put it all together for one season, he'd might win an MVP award.
If he ever struggled for an entire season, it would be one of worst seasons in the history of MLB.

It's weird because he is "consistent." He's not "streaky." He's good or bad for half seasons at a time.
I’m not sure I’ve ever seen anyone go in the prolonged streaks in both directions every season the way he does. Especially the length of the streaks.
 

Average Reds

Dope
Staff member
Dope
V&N Mod
SoSH Member
Sep 24, 2007
25,798
Southwestern CT
So long as he can OPS .700 for a season and maintain his defensive skills, he's worth locking up. He's the best defensive outfielder the Red Sox have had in my life (though B-R says Mookie's been better in terms of Defensive WAR, but the eye test certainly contradicts this).
This is where I've landed on JBJ.

If they could agree to an Aaron Hicks-type extension, I'd take that deal. Unfortunately, I don't think JBJ would do it, so I'm guesssing he'll move on eventually.
 

donutogre

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
1,804
Philadelphia
People have alluded to this, but the thing that I find most bizarre / interesting about JBJ is like... he has .900 OPS potential. Obviously that's not his baseline, but he clearly has the skill to be an elite batter for extended periods of time. Given that he has such a high ceiling, I would think he would avoid such long stretches where he's OPSing below .500. Maybe around .600, but not .450 for a month and a half. I feel like anyone who hits that badly for that long never rebounds with the hot streaks we're seeing right now.
 

DanoooME

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 16, 2008
15,984
Richmond, VA
I do not recall anyone, in 30+ years of watching baseball, whose hitting went as extremely hot and cold as JBJ's does.
My first thought was Devon White, but he wasn't nearly as streaky.
My second thought was Mike Cameron, and he's close if you look at the numbers.
 

azsoxpatsfan

Member
SoSH Member
May 23, 2014
598
People have alluded to this, but the thing that I find most bizarre / interesting about JBJ is like... he has .900 OPS potential. Obviously that's not his baseline, but he clearly has the skill to be an elite batter for extended periods of time. Given that he has such a high ceiling, I would think he would avoid such long stretches where he's OPSing below .500. Maybe around .600, but not .450 for a month and a half. I feel like anyone who hits that badly for that long never rebounds with the hot streaks we're seeing right now.
This is what I always think. If someone has the ability to ops .900+ for over a month at a time, it seems like they should never have month long periods of not looking like a viable major leaguer. Every player has slumps, but such profound, long slumps make no sense for someone who has the ability to be as good as he can be. It’s so bizarre
 

Max Power

thai good. you like shirt?
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
3,698
Boston, MA
My first thought was Devon White, but he wasn't nearly as streaky.
My second thought was Mike Cameron, and he's close if you look at the numbers.
He's the guy I've always thought was the best comp for Bradley overall. Great defense, decent power, decent speed, good pitch recognition, and poor contact skills. You can have a decent career even if there are long stretches where you look like someone hitting from the wrong side of the plate.
 

Reverend

for king and country
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
He's the guy I've always thought was the best comp for Bradley overall. Great defense, decent power, decent speed, good pitch recognition, and poor contact skills. You can have a decent career even if there are long stretches where you look like someone hitting from the wrong side of the plate.
JBJ is actually right handed in everything besides baseball, FWIW.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
10,558
His hot streak is now about as long as his cold streak. I used his first HR of the season as the cut off. I'm assuming his 0/4 last night wasn't the start of another cold streak.
First 38 games, 145 PA: .144/.245/.175, .217 BAbip, 4 doubles,0 triples, 0 HR, 16bb/43k, 11.0% BB rate, 29.7% K rate
Last 34 games, 138 PA: .291/.394/.607, .333 BAbip, 11 doubles, 1 triple, 8 HR, 14bb/31k, 10.1% BB rate, 22.5% K rate.

Or in really simple terms
145 PA: .420 OPS
138 PA: .1.001 OPS

It's a thing to behold.
 

The Needler

lurker
Dec 7, 2016
1,750
And...the streakiest hitter in the game is now .161/.257/.306 over his last 17 games, with 21 K in 70 PA.

And most of the numbers he does put up tend to be in low leverage situations. 2019 OPS by scoring margin:

Tie game - .748
Within 1 R - .637
Within 2 R - .637
Within 3 R - .632
Within 4 R - .648
> 4 run diff - 1.054

For his career:
Tie game - .699
Within 1 R - .711
Within 2 R - .726
Within 3 R - .719
Within 4 R - .711
> 4 run diff - .785

High Lev - .688
Med Lev - .720
Low Lev - .743

His career WPA is sitting at -4.74